Player Profile: B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton signed a 5-year, $75.25 million deal to join the Braves. The largest deal in Braves’ franchise history seems like a nice midway point to me. The club only gave Upton five years so in the last season of the deal he’ll be 33 years old, a point where he should still be able to justify his salary (many times it’s not the per year money that is the biggest concern with contracts, it’s the voluminous years attached to the cash that often pay guys premium salaries when they are 35+ years old). Despite my thoughts on the deal, and I’ll obviously give support for the position that I think it’s a fair deal, I received a bunch of tweets at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter page from people saying the deal is terrible. Their main contention was two-fold. (1) The guy strikes out too much. (2) He doesn’t get on base. I’ll address both of those valid concerns right now.

(1) Upton strikes out too much. Period. In each of the past four years he’s whiffed at least 150 times, 160 or more the past three years. There are only four players who have whiffed 150 times each of the past four years: Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds and Upton.

(2) Upton does struggle to get on base at times, largely due to the obnoxious strikeout totals. After back-to-back seasons of .380+ in the OBP column in 2007-08, Upton has failed to reach base at better than a .331 clip in any of the past four seasons. I’m not going to defend that. I will point out though that his .316 OBP the past four years is only .011 points below the league average.

While those two issues are certainly a concern in the real world, I don’t think they impact his fantasy value much (at least if you are in a standard 5×5 setup). What is an issue in the fantasy game is the effect the strikeouts have on his batting average. Though he owns a .255 career mark, he hasn’t hit that high since 2008. In the juiced player/muscle era, a .245 batting average was horrible. However, with the ascension of pitching the past few years, that number isn’t quite as bad as you might think. In fact, his .242 mark the past four years is just .018 points below the league average. I’m not saying that like it’s a good thing mind you, but it’s not as awful as the perception might be (you only need an everyday .285 hitter to get you back to the league average). Still, there is no disputing that if you roster Upton you will have to play to add some batters to offset his depressing batting average.

That’s the negative folks. Now the positive.

In the counting categories Upton is an absolute beast. Let’s start out with the steals.

Over the past five seasons Upton has swiped at least 31 bases each campaign. There is only one other player in baseball who can match that mark, and it’s the man that Upton will be replacing in the outfield for the Braves – Michael Bourn. The speed alone makes Upton a fantasy asset. The difference though between Upton and everyone else that steals bases at his level is the power that he displays (which they don’t). Over the past three years Upton has hit 69 homers in addition to his 109 steals. Over the past three years only five batters have stolen more bases. If you add together all five players they have hit a combined total of 78 homers: Juan Pierre 4, Bourn 13, Rajai Davis 14, Ichiro 20 and Coco Crisp 27.

The last three years Upton has hit at least 18 homers each season. Thirty three players have done that.

The last three years Upton has stolen at least 31 bases each season. Only four men have done that.

The last three years Upton has gone 18/31 each season. He is the only player in baseball to do that.

Put it another way, the last three years Upton has averaged 23 homers and 36 steals.

Ryan Braun hasn’t done that at any point in his career.
Carlos Gonzalez hasn’t done that.
Matt Kemp hasn’t done that.
Ian Kinsler hasn’t done that.

The combination of power and speed with Mr. Upton is elite. For me, it helps to erase his deficiencies in other areas (chiefly his batting average).

B.J. also scores runs, even if he never gets to an elite total. Since the 2007 season he’s scored 500 runs, the 29th highest total in baseball. He’s also been very consistent in getting there. Upton has scored at least 79 runs each of the past six seasons, something only eight other players in baseball have done. Moreover, if you look at the past two years do you know how many fellas have scored at least 79 runs each season with 78 RBIs? The answer is 16.

Look, I’m not oblivious to the obvious issues with his batting average. If you roster Upton you will need to make sure you augment him with players that are strong in the batting average category. However, after the elites are gone in the outfield, I fail to see why anyone would turn away from Upton because his consistently high level production in the counting categories make him a draft day target in this scribes mind.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Evan Longoria

Evan Longoria is currently the face of the Rays’ franchise, and he has been setup to be the face of the franchise, forever. Longoria and the Rays agreed on a six year contract extension for $100 million. It’s bigger than that though. Longoria has one year remaining on his entry level deal, then he’ll make $47.5 million from 2014-16 before the six year extension kicks in that will play him $100 million from 2017-22. In the end, the deals break down as 14 years and $147.5 million. “Evan has clearly become a cornerstone player and a fixture in our organization,” Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said in a statement. “We are proud of what we have accomplished these past seven years, and I expect the best is yet to come.” Here is what I think.

(1) The Rays have gotten themselves one hell of a bargain in Longoria. Here is Jeff Passan’s breakdown of Longoria’s contract before his just added on extension. Only one other player in baseball is signed through the 2022 season and that is Joey Votto who is signed through 2023. From now until 2022 Votto is set to earn $210 million, just $74 million more than Longoria.

(2) The Rays had better damn well hope that Longoria doesn’t remain the AL version of Troy Tulowitzki, an elite player who just cannot stay on the field. Longoria did appear in 150 games in 2009 and 2010, but that number fell to 133 in 2011 and just 74 games last year as a hamstring issue continued to bother him (it was announced that Longoria also had a minor surgery on his left hamstring back on November 20th). Was this just a couple year hiccup in what will be a long career of excellence, or should the Rays be nervous about locking up a guy for so long who has missed 117 games over the course of his age 25 and 26 year old seasons?

Time will tell.

The on the field production for Longoria is pretty impressive. Per 162 games in his career an average Longoria season would lead to a .276 average, 33 homers, 116 RBIs, 97 runs scored and nine steals. There wasn’t a single third baseman in baseball that reached all of those numbers last season (if we cheat and count Edwin Encarnacion as a third baseman he’s close but he still fell six runs batted in and four runs short). However, because of the injuries, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out a few salient facts.

In five big league seasons Longoria has hit .276 just three times.
In five big league seasons Longoria has hit 33 homers one time.
In five big league seasons Longoria has knocked in 116 runs – not once.
In five big league seasons Longoria has scored 97 runs one time.
In five big league seasons Longoria has stolen nine bases two times.

The fact is that Longoria has been an amazing player over 162 games but he’s failed to stay healthy long enough to reach those “averages” for the majority of his young career. Just some food for thought before you go and spend a first or second round draft pick on Longoria.

A quick look at the skills.

Last season Evan had a 10.6 percent walk rate. The mark is 11.1 percent for his career. Last season Evan had a K-rate of 19.6 percent. For his career that mark is 19.8 percent. Adding the two together Longoria had a 0.54 K/BB ratio in ’12, just off his 0.56 career mark. Remember that all of these numbers are just a smidge above average, so it’s nothing to be overly excited about.

Longoria’s BABIP was .313 in 2012, just above his career mark of .303. Longoria did rap out liners at a 21.9 percent clip last year but that was far in excess of his career best mark of 20.3 percent or his career rate of 19.6 percent. Those facts combined with his barely better than average BB/K mark isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement that Longoria will ever be a .300 hitter. That doesn’t mean his average is going to go all Dunn-like, it never will, but make sure you realize that he’s more .280 and .310.

The power is legit, but that doesn’t mean he’s a lock to be the next 40 homer third sacker. Longoria has posted a HR/F ratio of at least 17.6 percent in four of his five seasons. That’s a strong number. However, he doesn’t loft as many fly balls as would be ideal for a power hitter. For his career his 0.93 GB/FB does tilt slightly to the fly ball, but it’s only about a tenth better than the league average. There’s nothing wrong with Longoria pounding out 30-35 homers every year though, is there? Exactly.

The ongoing leg issues with Longoria are a concern. He should be 100 percent by the start of next season, the surgery should see to that. People will look at the back of Longoria’s ball card and see that 15 steal effort in 2010 and get all excited. You shouldn’t let that fact obfuscate that in his other four big league seasons he’s averaged five steals a year, or that he has stolen only five bases the past two seasons. Set your sights on 10 steals and you are likely in a solid place to avoid substantial disappointment.

Evan Longoria could win an MVP award or two. He’s got the talent to be that type of impact player. At the same time he’s coming off two injury filled seasons at an age where he should be healthy. He’s also one of those players that people look at and think .295-35-125-100-15 and they draft him accordingly. He’ll be cheaper in 2013 than he has been the past two years, but just like the case of Tulowitzki who I mentioned earlier, it’s pretty difficult to build your fantasy squad around a guy that you just can’t trust to be in the field. Chances are the Longoria will be fine, productive, an a borderline fantasy star in 2013. Just make sure you are going into this situation with your eyes wide open if you take him at the top of your fantasy draft.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton is a borderline star in the fantasy game. If you take the season best marks from the elder Upton in the standard five offensive fantasy categories, you’d be staring at a guy with the following line: .300-24-82-89-44. Unfortunately, Upton also has hit a mere .257 in his career, has struck out at least 150 times in four of the last five years, and he always seems to be one play away from being benched for lackadaisical play. Currently ranked as the 20th outfielder according to MockDraftCentral, should Upton be going off draft boards earlier than his 64.5 ADP mark?

Let’s go season by season with Upton.

2007: He was one of nine players to go 20/20 with 80 RBI/Runs.
2008: He was one of five players to steal 40 bases with 85 runs.
2009: He was one of five players to steal 40 bases with 75 runs.
2010: He was one of two players to hit 15 HRs with 40 SBs and 85 runs.
2011: He was one of four players to go 20/30 with 80 RBI/Runs.

The point here should be obvious. As I mentioned out at the start of this piece, there are certainly issues with B.J., and in the fantasy game the biggest concern is certainly that poor batting average, but there is no denying that the guy can light up a fantasy score sheet. The thing that set apart Upton is that he posses solid power which he combines with elite speed. There’s simply no way around that. The past five years, here is what an “average” Upton effort has looked like: .257-17-69-84-37. For five years now Upton has nearly averaged a 20/40 season with 70 RBI and 85 runs. Those are big time fantasy numbers. Just ask yourself this question; how many guys in baseball can you say have a legitimate shot at 20 homers and 40 steals in 2012? It’s a pretty small group isn’t it?

As for his batting average, you’re just going to have to plan around that. Though he hit .300 in 2007, Upton has settled in as a guy who will struggle to get a hit every four at-bats (he’s been under .245 the past three years). What that means is that if you draft Upton you had better augment your club with a .300 hitter or two. The main reason that Upton isn’t going to hit much better than .250 is that he strikes out in a quarter of his at-bats. Upton does take a walk though, even with all those punchouts he still owns a career 0.45 BB/K mark which is basically league average. Unless he suddenly figures it out at the dish, and the chance of that happening is pretty darn small at this point of his career, it just might be time to admit that Upton simply isn’t going to be someone who is going to help you in the batting average category.

In the fantasy game we like to down players for what they can’t do more than we prop them up for what they can do. Take the case of Michael Bourn. Everyone knows that he is the most consistent stolen base threat in the game, but most also look at him and say ‘he’s not a great fantasy option cause he never hits a homer and rarely knocks in a run.’ People fail to realize that his elite speed makes him at top-50 fantasy player every year. The same situation, at least partially, occurs with Upton. People get scared off by the poor batting average an overlook just how effective that Upton is on the base paths. Think of it like this. There are 10 men in baseball who have at least 130 steals the past four seasons. The only player in that group with 60 homers is Upton (he has 61). Not just that, only three men have 130 steals and more than 40 homers (the other two are Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford). Upton will never be truly elite in the fantasy game because of that lowly average, but if he were able to channel his 2007 self – the one that hit .300 – Upton could be a top-5 fantasy outfielder in 2012.

By the way, of you’re looking to do a mock draft, Fealflicker has you covered.

By Ray Flowers

Geezers in the Outfield: Damon, Ibanez, Matsui

Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez and Hideki Matsui have all been solid performers for years (each was a fantasy star at one point, even if you’ve forgotten because it was a while ago). Do any of the three enough residual skill to be of use in the fantasy game in 2012 as anything other than single league options (NL or AL Only)? That’s what we’re going to investigate.

Damon (.261-16-73-79-19) is one of the more stable performers in the history of the game. Really. Damon has appeared in 140 games in 16-straight years to tie Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson and Pete Rose for the longest such run in big league history. He’s also had 11 seasons of at least 90 runs scored and 15 steals, the third most such seasons in history. Those aren’t phenomenal numbers, but they have long made him a draft day target after the bigger names were taken. However, Damon has seen his average dip the last three years (.303, .282, .271 and .261) as his bat speed slips, and last year was the first time since 1998 that he posted a BB/K rate under 0.70 (it was 0.55). His GB/FB ratio was pretty standard fair for him at 1.08 (career 1.25), and his line drive mark of 20.2 percent was right on his career rate of 20 percent, so it’s not like he’s totally lost it at the dish. Damon even upped his steals mark to 19 after totaling just 23 in 2009-10. Damon can still produce, an if given 500+ at-bats he still seems capable of replicating the fantasy line he posted last season (though I’d expect the steals to dip even if his bat remained on track).

Ibanez (.245-20-84-65) looked lost last April hitting .161 with a homer before rebounding in May to hit .315 with seven homers. Alas, his production was all over the place as he had three months with an OPS under .600 last year, and that’s just unacceptable. He was also a complete liability against left-handed pitching with a .211/.232/.353 line that made him look like a good hitting pitcher. Yeah, it was pretty brutal. He also hit a mere .210 with a .577 OPS on the road, so it appears that he is in desperate need of an offensive ballpark if he want’s to stave off Father Time for another year. To be fair did record 20 homers and 84 RBI, the 7th straight year he has hit at least 16 homers with 83 RBI, but those numbers were merely the result of playing everyday in a strong lineup in Philly. Ibanez posted an 18.4 K-rate which isn’t awful, but it was his second worst numbers since 1998. He also posted his lowest walk rate since that 1998 season, and the result was a 0.31 BB/K mark that was a drastic fall from his career mark of 0.54. Ibanez also hit more balls into the ground than at any point in his career (46 percent) as his fly ball rate dipped to 35.0 percent, it’s lowest mark since 2005. Can Ibanez still drive in a run? Certainly. But with his declining skill set, and the fact that he will be 40 years old on 1972, any slump at all will likely lead to him being replaced by a younger player up the upswing, not to mention the fact that even in a best case scenario he may be forced into a platoon.

Matsui (.251-12-72-56) can no longer play the field, his knees can’t take the pounding, so his outlook is even more limited than the other two. When he hit just .209 in the first half with a .617 OPS for the A’s, many an epitaph was written for his tombstone. Seemingly finding the fountain of youth, Matsui rebounded to hit a whopping .369 with 22 RBI in July to propel him to a .295 average and 38 RBI over his last 65 games. While that was a great improvement on the first half, those are still middling numbers for a DH. Matsui has failed to hit .275 for three years running, an at this point 20 homers might be a reach as well. Matsui is coming off his career worst HR/F ratio mark of 7.4 percent (career 12.6), and twice in four years that number has been in the single digits. He also hit more grounders last season than he has in three years, and that’s not going to help him reach the seats. Matsui also took fewer walks than he had since 2005, and his K-rate last season was a percentage point above his career rate. If he was 27 years old the outlook wouldn’t be dire, but as a 37 year old, the tires have almost been worn down to the tube. Given that he has appeared in only 46 games in the field the last four years, and that his bat is clearly slowing, it’s nearly impossible to think he’ll be able to appreciably improve upon last years effort.

You can find out where all of the three geezers rank in terms of their projected draft position at Fleaflicker and you can find out how I rank all three players if you purchase the BaseballGuys 2012 Fantasy Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Jeremy Hellickson

The AL Rookie of the Year, Jeremy Hellickson had a wonderful season in 2011 as he won 13 games, posted a 2.95 ERA and had a 1.15 WHIP over 29 starts covering 189 innings. He completely deserved the ROY award as Hellickson did exactly what everyone though he would do – he pitched very well. None of his pitches are elite, but his ability to mix and match his pitches, and to locate the ball, led to some impressive results. Will he replicate that effort in 2012?

Hellickson didn’t tire late in the year as he lasted at least six innings in seven of his last eight outings. He also performed well allowing three or fewer earned runs in each of those eight outings. Moreover, Hellickson actually posted a better ERA in the second half than the first (2.64 versus 3.21), while his WHIP went up only a hundredth to 1.16. Not bad at all. Hellickson should be capable of throwing 200-innings in 2012, and with his skills that makes him someone you really need to pay attention to.

Though Hellickson’s ability to “pitch” is well advanced beyond his years, I do worry a bit about some of the things we saw on the field in his first full season. A strong strikeout performer in the minors, Jeremy posted a K/9 mark of 8.17 in 36.1 innings in his first season. Last year that number dropped all the way down to 5.57. Remember, I tend to avoid starters that don’t have a mark of at least 6.00. He may not be an 8.00 K/9 kind of guy in the bigs, but he really needs to recapture some of what he lost if he wants to maintain his ratios from 2011 in the future (his minor league mark was 9.8).

Hellickson walked 1.98 batters per nine in his first season, and last year that number grew substantially to 3.43 per nine. Given that the big league average for walks in 2011 was 3.11 per nine, we’re talking about a K deficient pitcher who walks more batters than an average big league hurler. That doesn’t shout out 2.98 ERA, especially in the AL.

Unfortunately for Hellickson, he allows a few too many fly balls as well, the result being another below big league average mark of 0.78 in GB/FB ratio (the big league average is usually about 1.10). Not enough K’s to be average, Too many walks to be average. An inability to produce a big league mark in GB/FB… are you starting to see why Hellickson might be slightly over-drafted in 2012?

Further confirmation of why you should be slightly concerned with a repeat effort in 2012 follows.

Hellickson posted a left on base percentage of 82.0 percent. That mark was was the second highest in baseball (Jered Weaver was at 82.6), and it is not a mark that Hellickson will be able to repeat in 2012 (don’t forget the big league average is about 70 percent). If Hellickson has a strong year in 2012 he’d probably be up around 75 percent. He’s not hitting 80 percent again, and this fact alone puts his ERA in some jeopardy. Further concern should be raised by the fact that Hellickson’s xFIP last year was 4.72, nearly a full run higher than the 3.83 mark he posted in 2010. Even if we split the difference there, we’re talking about a similar performance in 2012 likely resulting in an ERA in the mid-3′s, not below 3.00.

As I’ve already said, Hellickson has an advanced understanding of how to pitch for a fella with only 225.1 innings in his big league career. However, the chances of him repeating his ERA and WHIP numbers in 2012, if he doesn’t change a whole bunch of things about his performance, are rather small. I’m not saying he is going to fail, he is too talented for that, but I’m warning you that it might be wise to avoid building your pitching staff around the young, talented righty from the Rays.

By Ray Flowers

Misery Loves Company

I know everyone is doing it, and while I’m not a follower – never have been – I felt the need to write the obligatory article dealing with the two massive collapses authored by the Red Sox and the Braves.

THE RED SOX

On September 1st the Sox led the AL East by 1.5 games over the Yankees, and they were nine games ahead of the Rays. The Sox maintained that nine game lead over the Rays as late as September 3rd. They proceeded to go 6-18 from that point forward to becomes the first time in the history of the game to squander a nine game September lead. “I’m devastated. I’m heartbroken,” Dustin Pedroia said. “To play hard for 161 games like we have and have it end like this…”

Why did they collapse? The offense was fine down the stretch, but it was the pitching that let them down. The Red Sox starters posted an ERA of 7.08 for the month of September.

THE BRAVES

If not for the Red Sox collapse, the Braves flop would be considered the worst in the history of the game.

On August 26th the Braves had a 10.5 game lead over the Cardinals.
On September 5th the Braves had an 8.5 game lead over the Cardinals.

You can blame injuries to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens, the Braves #2 and #3 starters, and no one could honestly claim that wasn’t a huge hole to fill. But still, going 9-18 including a 5-game losing streak to end the season? You just witnessed the greatest collapse in the history of the National League. “I can’t fathom it,” Freddie Freeman said.

Pitiful.

ROTATION QUESTION

You tell me, which rotation would you rather face this postseason?

Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Chris Carpenter
Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders
CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia

OR

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner

Who out there isn’t thanking the baseball gods for not having to face the Giants top-3 in the playoffs this year?

CHEERS TO

Justin Verlander led the American League in wins (24), ERA (2.40) and strikeouts (250) to capture the Pitcher’s Triple Crown.

Clayton Kershaw led the National League in wins (21 to tie with Ian Kennedy), ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248). I’m going to give him the NL Triple Crown as well even though he tied for the league lead in wins.

BOOS TO

I know it’s a 162 game season, and that Jose Reyes had 537 at-bats on the year so it’s not really fair to call him out for one game, but it was weak sauce that he bunted for a hit in his first at-bat and then pulled himself from his final game to win the NL batting title over Ryan Braun (it ended up being a .337 to .332 race). For the story of how a real man does it, make sure you click on the link to the story about Ted Williams final day in 1941.

By Ray Flowers

The Verducci Effect

I don’t normally completely steal someone’s idea when putting together an article, but in this case I’m going to do just that. Of course I will give full accredidation, so don’t go reporting me to the principle for stealing someone’s work.

Tom Verducci is a well known writer for Sports Illustrated, and a few years back he had a discussion with pitching guru Rick Peterson that led Mr. Verducci to the position about the innings pitched increase youngsters often face from one year to the next. Ultimately what he started espousing was that youngsters who realized a significant increase in innings pitched from one season to another were at an increased risk of breaking down or seeing their productivity decrease in the following season. Ultimately the research that was undertaken led to the Verducci Effect which states the following:

Pitchers who are 25 years old or younger, who see an innings increase from one year to the next of 30 frames or more, are at a greater risk of injury or ineffectiveness in the following campaign.

Now there is some debate about whether or not you should blindly accept this postulate as an accurate depiction of what occurs on the field – Michael Weddell did a study for BaseballHQ in which he determined there really was no increased risk of a burnout or injury in the following campaign – but logic obviously leads to the position that a major increase in inning pitched from one year to the next isn’t likely to be a good thing for a developing arm. I do think that too much is made of innings pitched in some circles, to me a more effective way to look at pitcher’s workload is to track pitches per start, and perhaps even more importantly pitches per inning (those high stress, big pitch count innings can be really detrimental). However, the Verducci Effect speaks to innings pitched, so let’s work with that.

Am I overly concerned when a young arm goes from 125 to 155 innings? Not really. I would be more concerned if that 30 inning jump shot a guy from 180 to 210 innings pitched. However, that doesn’t mean I’m not concerned when that innings pitched mark begins to substantially increase. Here are some of the men highlighted by Verducci as risks in 2011.

Madison Bumgarner (21 yrs old, 214.1 IP, +73 IP): This is a scary increase total in my mind, both because of the innings pitched number, and because of the age of Madison. He is a big kid, listed at 6’4″ and 215 lbs, and his performance in the playoffs was dominating suggesting that the innings weren’t an issue (he was 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 20.2 innings). Still, his IP increase is more than double the baseline for concern with the Verducci Effect, and even if Mr. Verducci is only 50 percent right, the doubling of his suggested baseline makes me 100 percent concerned with Bumgarner.

Alex Sanabia (22 yrs old, 170.2 IP, +66.1 IP): The youngster made 12 starts late in the year with the Marlins, but only three times did he reach triple digit in pitches (with a high of 109). He did have some soreness in his arm late in the year, though there is no way to tell if that was related to the substantial innings pitched increase.

Mat Latos (23 yrs old, 184.2 IP, +61.2 IP): Here’s the big worry with Latos – he has been on this list two years in a row. Moreover, his innings pitched increase has been massive from 56 to 123 to 184.1. That’s right, his innings pitched mark has gone up more than 60-innings in each of the past two years. I don’t need the Verducci Effect to tell me those are scary numbers. You think this massive innings increase is at least party to blame for Latos’ struggles down the stretch last year (1-5, 5.66 ERA, 1.51 WHIP over his last seven starts)?

David Price (25 yrs old, 221.1 IP, +58.2 IP): The Rays are as careful as any organization in the game with how they treat their pitchers. Given that, and the fact that Price is a bit older than the others on this list, I’m not as concerned as a might be if some other hurler boosted his innings total by nearly 60 frames.

Brandon Beachy (24 yrs old, 133 IP, +57 IP): Beachy pitched only 15 innings for the Braves but he did well with a 3.00 ERA an a 9.00 K/9 mark. He did struggle to throw strikes with a 4.20 BB/9 mark, a total that was double the rate he posted in the minors (2.10 per nine). Was that because of wear and tear on his arm or because of the level of the competition? We need more data to be sure.

In the end, common sense might be the best direction to take here. Would I take Jon Garland over Mat Latos because of the youngsters massive innings increase the past two years? Of course not. However, if I was debating between Latos and Dan Haren, well, then it’s a different story.

The Stange Case of Rafael Soriano

Rafael Soriano is still looking for work. There is no telling what his agent Scott Boras is asking for – my guess is that he is telling everyone that Soriano is the second best closer in baseball history behind Mariano Rivera – but the fire-balling righty is still looking for a job. Reports this week were that he would considering serving as the setup man for Rivera with the Yankees, but the Yanks quickly shot down that rumor and said they weren’t interested in dropping a ton of dough for a setup man (could that change if Andy Pettitte officially retires?). So where will Soriano end end? There aren’t too many openings to fill 9th inning roles left vacant, so perhaps Soriano will have to settle for a smaller money deal, something that seemed unlikely a few weeks back when guys like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were getting 3-year deals. Has Mr. Boras finally failed one of his clients? You should know better than to doubt Mr. Boras at this point.

The real reason for the reluctance of teams to shed out major dinero for Soriano must be tied to his awful record of health since he has kept many a trainer/doctor in business over the years with a plethora of arm issues constantly slowing him down. Here are his innings pitched totals since he reached the big leagues.

47.1
53.0
3.1
7.1
60.0
72.0
14.0
75.2
62.1

Let me sum that up for you. In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings. Would you be comfortable giving a guy like that $10 million a year? Me neither. At the same time, Soriano has tossed 60-innings in back-to-back seasons for the second time (the first was in 2006-07), though it’s not as if he has been 100 percent healthy in that time. The fact of the matter is that all pitchers are at risk with every toss, though Soriano is clearly much more likely to come down with some ailment than your average hurler.

All of Soriano’s injuries have obscured the fact that he is an absolutely dynamic pill tosser. Check out his career numbers. They are scintillating.

2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, .193 BAA

You think those numbers are great? They are, but his 2010 effort made even those strong totals look average.

1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 4.07 K/BB, .163 BAA

Wow is right.

I didn’t even mention that Soriano racked up a career best 45 saves to lead the AL (he entered the year with 43 career saves). Soriano also posted the fourth best ERA in baseball for any hurler with at least 60-innings pitched while his WHIP was second (Joaquin Benoit was first at 0.68). That’s some serious dealing folks.

Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?

All Free Agent Team

I’m scheduled to visit with Jeff Rickard on Saturday around 11 AM PST on MLB Network Radio to talk free agents. We’re actually going to discuss whether or not you could put together a fantasy worthy team of players still looking to find a home for 2011 (i.e. they are free agents). Here is my all free agent fantasy team.

C: Bengie Molina
1B: Russell Branyan
2B: Adam Kennedy
3B: Jorge Cantu
SS: Orlando Cabrera
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon
DH: Jim Thome
SP: Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia, Brad Penny, Chris Young
RP: Mr. Soriano of course, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Chad Qualls

It’s not exactly a powerhouse team that would win any leagues, but I’ve also seen people put together worse teams.

By Ray Flowers

Playoff Perspective

It’s playoff time, and thankfully, just before a heart attack set in, the Giants dispatched the Braves to move on to the NLCS. They now face arguably the best team in baseball in the Phillies, but you have to beat the best to be the best. Here are some playoff thoughts as we head deep into October baseball.

Phillies vs. Giants

Speaking of the Phillies against the Giants, could you possibly construct a scenario more interesting than the presumed Game 1 matchup of Halladay vs. Lincecum? Let’s go to the tale of the tape.

Age, Height, Weight

Halladay: 33 years old, 6’6″, 230 lbs
Lincecum: 26 years old, 5’11″, 170 lbs

ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, BAA

Halladay: 2.44, 1.04, 7.86, 7.30, .245
Lincecum: 3.43 1.27, 9.79, 3.04, .242

Styles

Halladay: Tall, lanky and the possessor of one of the most versatile arsenals in the game, Halladay can beat you pretty much any way you can think of. If he needs a strikeout he can pick one up, and he is never going to beat himself with the free pass. When he is “on” you will be hard pressed to see someone who can control both sides of the plate any better, and he simply gets filthy movement on his pitches to constantly mess with the hitters line of site. There is no better “pitcher” in the game today.

Lincecum: He couldn’t be any different than the Phillies’ ace. While Halladay has the prototypical pitchers build and a smooth flowing motion, Lincecum is all arms and legs as he seems to propel himself plate ward with every pitch. No bigger than the guy you just ran into in line at Starbucks, Lincecum generates tremendous whip with his arm, and it allows him to hurl the ball harder than he should for a man his size. While he can certainly “pitch,” Lincecum is the type of dominating hurler that when he is “on” batters give each other high five’s if they merely manage to put the barrel on the ball.

If I had to some it up I would say this. Halladay quietly retires the side over and over while Lincecum does the same while striking fear into the hearts of batters.

It should be a wonderful matchup.

Thanks to Jeff Fletcher of AOL for the following Tweets:

* Roy Halladay- Roy Oswalt-Cole Hamels vs SF this year: 1-2, 6.12;
Tim Lincecum- Matt Cain- Jonathan Sanchez vs PHI: 2-1, 1.96
* OK, here’s one you won’t believe: Slugging pct: Phillies .413; SF Giants .408.

* Since 9/1 Phillies scored 167 runs (most in MLB), SF Giants allowed 60 runs (fewest in MLB).

Tupac or Biggie? I’ve always been a huge Tupac fan, and that will never change, but as time wears on I’ve been giving Biggie a second look and the dude is growing on me. Just thought I would throw that in there.

Rays vs. Rangers

Heading into Game 5 of the the ALDS – here is one stat line you need to keep in mind; Cliff Lee is 5-0 with a 1.32 ERA an a 0.80 WHIP in the playoffs.

The Rays hit .123 through the fifth inning of Game 3. Since then they are batting .362 with four homers in 58 ABs.

Yankees

The Yankees lost 17 of their last 26 games entering the playoffs before the went out and swept the Twins three games to none.

The Twins, they have lost 12-straight postseason games since 2004, one short of the all-time record set by the Red Sox (1986-95). The last nine loses have all come against the Bronx Bombers.

Some more bad news Twins fans? How about the fact that the Yankees have won the last four playoff matches between the clubs as they have outscored the Twinkies by the score of 69-36. That’s about as ugly as it gets.

By Ray Flowers

Big Names, Big Production

Wednesday is always an odd day. Memories of last weekend are fading, and you’re still days away from heading out on the town with your homies to cause some trouble, so you’re basically just laying in wait for something to happen. What I’m saying is that it’s a no-man’s kinda day. As a result, it’s hardly a shock that there is no real theme with the players I’m going to discuss other than the fact that they have all been performing pretty well of late.

Josh Hamilton is a beast. How crazy good has he been? Since the start of June he has hit .434 with 14 homers and 47 RBI in 49 games. Those are numbers that wind up leading you to the MVP award. Sick.

Matt Garza, who has come a long way since he was a Twins’ rookie wearing a My Little Pony backpack (yeah, that’s him in the photo above),  tossed the fifth no-hitter of the season on Monday night. Do you know what the record is for one season? In 1884, yeah it was a totally different game back then I know, there where eight no-hitters (the last time there were five no-hitters in a season was 1991). Moreover, since the Rays’ fell in no-hitters twice this season, they became only the third team in baseball history to be involved in three no-hitters in a single season. The other two teams were the White Sox and the St. Louis Browns — in 1917. As for Garza, he has offered a slight up tick in his performance compared to last season. He is 11-5 and that is great, though his ERA is up a smidge from 3.95 last year to 4.06 this season, while his WHIP is a virtual match (1.26 to 1.24). The only real negative in the fantasy game is that he has seen his K-rate dwindle substantially from 8.38 per nine last season down to 6.78 which is below his 7.19 career mark. If he were to pick up the whiffs we could be looking at a top-25 pitcher the rest of the way.

The single season triple record is 36 by Chief Wilson in 1912. No on in baseball even has nine triples this season.

Brandon Morrow – welcome to the world of fantasy relevance. On May 31st he had a 6.00 ERA and was having a devil of a time throwing strikes. Since that point he has made nine starts going just 3-2, but his ratios have improved dramatically. His WHIP has gone down to 1.29, a big step for a guy who had a 1.58 mark over his first 11 appearances, and his ERA has plummeted down to 3.21. Why the success? He’s maintained his K/9 mark mark with an impressive 9.48 mark but his walk rate has tanked – which in this case is obviously a great thing. After walking 34 batters in his first 57 innings – good for a 5.37 BB/9 mark – he has walked a mere 19 hitters in his last 56 innings leading to a 3.05 mark. Basically he has gone from being Oliver Perez to being a better than big league pitcher in terms of his control. The Blue Jays might limit his workload as the season wears on, and his final season numbers likely won’t look that great, but don’t forget about how good Morrow can be when he’s throwing strikes when you do participate in your draft in 2011.

Javier Vazquez has been a massive letdown this season with a 9-7 record, a 4.54 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. However, should he be viewed that way? He was never going to repeat his performance from last season (15-10, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), especially when he went to the AL. Also, his production has been a near match for his work with the Yankees back in 2004 (14-10, 4.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). At the same time if you were an astute wheeler and dealer, you may have come out way ahead here. Through six starts this season he was 1-4 with a 8.10 ERA in a truly dreadful start to the year. However, he has been nails since that point going 8-3 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and a 6.90 K/9 mark. That’s difference making production from the righty. Don’t be afraid to look beyond a player’s season long numbers when you’re trying to figure out his value for the rest of the season.

By Ray Flowers