Player Profile: Marco Scutaro

Some players get little respect. You know, they are the “glue” type players that you roster in the middle to late rounds that end up filling up the stat sheet rather nicely by the time that October rolls around even if no one really batted an eye when you called out their name at the draft table. One of those guys is Marco Scutaro. He’s never someone you target, and most of the time when you call out his name it’s merely because there really aren’t any better options out there, but there are certainly worse guys to target late as a middle infield option than the Rockies new second baseman.

Let me begin right where I just left off. Scutaro, who played just two games at second last season but has played regularly there during his big league career, will be the Rockies’ starting second baseman in 2012 (thanks Troy Tulowitzki). This is great news for Scutaro because he will be able to add second base to his shortstop qualification. When you’re thinking about grabbing a guy in the later rounds having positional flexibility like this is just another level of added value. You don’t have to take two players as a backup to your second baseman and shortstop, you can simply add a guy Scutaro to give you some depth.

Second, one of the keys with Scutaro is that he will be the Rockies new second baseman. Coors Field doesn’t play like it once did now that they humidor the hell out of the baseballs up there (some conspiracy theorists still maintain that the Rockies use a different set of “dead” baseball’s when the visiting team is at-bat), but at the same time it’s still a great place for a hitter to call home. Scutaro isn’t a home run hitter, his two best seasons are 11 and 12, but that misses the point. Scutaro is a strong extra base hitter who has rapped out 30 doubles in three seasons in his career while averaging 33 the past three years. The last three years Coors has been the best park in the NL for doubles, 22 percent greater than the league average park according to Park Indices. Scutaro should be hitting plenty of two baggers this season.

Scutaro has hit .270 for his career, an over his last three years he has hit at least .275 each time. He’s a good bet to keep that up in 2012, not just because of his home yard, but because of his approach. For his career Scutaro owns a 0.80 BB/K mark, well above the big league average of about 0.50, and the last time that number dipped below 0.75 for Scutaro was when George Bush Jr. was president (2004). He won’t damage your teams’ batting average and he has at least an even shot of actually helping in the category.

Since he became an every day player in 2008, Scutaro has been a solid performer. Even including his effort last season in which he was only able to accrue 395 at-bats, here is what an average 5×5 season has looked like for Scutaro since 2008: .280-9-58-82-8. Again, that’s nothing special, but those are replacement level stuff that you can get on the cheap at the draft table. Would you rather roster guys like Zack Cozart or Jason Bartlett late? I know I wouldn’t.

Scutaro doesn’t do anything that stands out, but I wouldn’t be drafting Scutaro to win me a league. I’d be drafting Scutaro as a player who, given 500 at-bats, is going to be a great return on my investment. He’ll qualify at both middle infield spots, likely hit at least .280, score a bunch of runs, and knock in enough to be worthy of strong consideration in deep mixed leagues as a middle infielder. Don’t forget about the little fella when your draft moves into the 20′s – Scutaro is someone you can fill your roster out with on the cheap who will end up providing you more than passable numbers if he can stay healthy.

Click here to get your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: January 25th, 2012

YouTube has been a disaster today – really, ever since they merged with Google things haven’t worked right, at least for me. Eventually, there will be a video discussing the below topics – that is if I can ever get my video loaded up on YouTube.

(1) Prince Fielder to the Tigers. What are the implications for him and Miguel Cabrera?

(2) Wilson Betemit to the Orioles.

(3) Bartolo Colon to the A’s.

(4) Yoenis Cespedes ready to find a team.

(5) Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt searching for teams.

By Ray Flowers

The Day After

I’ve been doing a lot of player profiles recently, so I thought it would be nice to change things up today and return to my helter skelter ways of days past. So strap in as we fly around the majors.

Bruce Chen and the Royals have some kind of love affair. Chen was rewarded for solid work with the Royals the last few years when he was given a 2-year deal for $9 million (there are also performance based incentives that could total a million dollars for the lefty). Chen has gone 24-15 for the Royals the past two years, an impressive record given that club’s issues, but his 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP the past two years just aren’t that exciting. Toss in a poor 5.94 K/9 ratio, and another poor mark in the K/BB column (1.82), and I’m not remotely as excited about Chen as the Royals appear to be.

Freddy Garcia will make $4 million on his one year deal with the Yankees (there’s like another million in incentives in there as well). It’s a solid deal for both sides but just not something that should get you excited (Garcia is the right-handed version of Chen actually). Garcia won 12 games with a 3.62 ERA in 2011, and he could repeat those numbers in 2012, but his K/9 has been under 6.00 each of the past three years and there is just nothing, not a single thing, that points to any upside.

The Giants are going to lose two outfielders who played key roles in the teams’ World Championship run a couple of years ago (neither player was offered arbitration). Pat Burrell is likely going to have to retire because of ongoing foot woes. If he is done he’ll retire with a career OBP of .361, 292 homers and 976 RBIs. That’s a solid career to be sure, but for a guy who was drafted first overall in 1998, perhaps his career was slightly disappointing? Cody Ross was injured in 2011 and limited to 405 at-bats, and his productivity when on the field was less than inspiring as he hit 14 homers with 52 RBI, 54 runs scored and a mere .730 OPS. Someone might give him a chance to start, but he’s best served as a strong fourth outfielder.

According to reports, David Ortiz could get up to $16 million if he goes to arbitration with the Red Sox. He wants at least a two year deal so he’s unlikely to accept arbitration, but $16 million for one year? I know Ortiz had a great year hitting .309 with 29 homers, 96 RBI and an OPS of .952, but he’s 36 years old and lost his glove years ago. I wouldn’t pay him that much.

Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes will get theirs, but it’s not surprising that the market for both is slowly developing since both want huge money deals. Bank on this though. All those rumors about the Marlins signing all the big ticket free agents, such as these two, is sheer poppycock. I think it’s all a shell game to make the fans think they’re trying harder than they really are down in Florida.

Carlos Pena was offered arbitration by the Cubs but he really wants to sign a multi-year deal. Pena owns a career .239 batting average, and the last three years he hasn’t hit even .228 a single time. He does keep pounding the ball though. The last five years Pena has hit at least 28 homers with 80 RBI each season. Can’t argue with that though his pathetic average will cause that check to be smaller than he had hoped for.

Dan Wheeler was offered arbitration from the Red Sox. Wheeler posted a 4.38 ERA, but as usual, his performance was pretty darn solid. Wheeler walked only eight batters all year leading to a 1.46 BB/9 mark that led to a superb 4.88 K/BB ratio, the second time in two years that he’s posted a mark over 4.75. He’s nowhere near elite, but he’s one valuable bullpen arm.

By Ray Flowers

Misery Loves Company

I know everyone is doing it, and while I’m not a follower – never have been – I felt the need to write the obligatory article dealing with the two massive collapses authored by the Red Sox and the Braves.

THE RED SOX

On September 1st the Sox led the AL East by 1.5 games over the Yankees, and they were nine games ahead of the Rays. The Sox maintained that nine game lead over the Rays as late as September 3rd. They proceeded to go 6-18 from that point forward to becomes the first time in the history of the game to squander a nine game September lead. “I’m devastated. I’m heartbroken,” Dustin Pedroia said. “To play hard for 161 games like we have and have it end like this…”

Why did they collapse? The offense was fine down the stretch, but it was the pitching that let them down. The Red Sox starters posted an ERA of 7.08 for the month of September.

THE BRAVES

If not for the Red Sox collapse, the Braves flop would be considered the worst in the history of the game.

On August 26th the Braves had a 10.5 game lead over the Cardinals.
On September 5th the Braves had an 8.5 game lead over the Cardinals.

You can blame injuries to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens, the Braves #2 and #3 starters, and no one could honestly claim that wasn’t a huge hole to fill. But still, going 9-18 including a 5-game losing streak to end the season? You just witnessed the greatest collapse in the history of the National League. “I can’t fathom it,” Freddie Freeman said.

Pitiful.

ROTATION QUESTION

You tell me, which rotation would you rather face this postseason?

Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Chris Carpenter
Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders
CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia

OR

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner

Who out there isn’t thanking the baseball gods for not having to face the Giants top-3 in the playoffs this year?

CHEERS TO

Justin Verlander led the American League in wins (24), ERA (2.40) and strikeouts (250) to capture the Pitcher’s Triple Crown.

Clayton Kershaw led the National League in wins (21 to tie with Ian Kennedy), ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248). I’m going to give him the NL Triple Crown as well even though he tied for the league lead in wins.

BOOS TO

I know it’s a 162 game season, and that Jose Reyes had 537 at-bats on the year so it’s not really fair to call him out for one game, but it was weak sauce that he bunted for a hit in his first at-bat and then pulled himself from his final game to win the NL batting title over Ryan Braun (it ended up being a .337 to .332 race). For the story of how a real man does it, make sure you click on the link to the story about Ted Williams final day in 1941.

By Ray Flowers

Follow the Playoff Race

Despite the fact that the beginning of the NFL season is occupying much of the sports world’s interest, it’s about time to start checking your direcTV guide for MLB playoff times, as the postseason is just around the corner. In fact, the postseason is also nearly set, with the tightest pennant race taking place in the American League West, where the Angels have slowly but surely gained ground on the Rangers. Aside from this, and barring some very improbably comebacks and collapses, the postseason’s team roster is just about set – though the Red Sox seem to be making every effort to change that.

Thursday night the Red Sox continued their suddenly dramatic-looking late season slide by losing a 9-2 romp at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Sox – losers of 2 of their last 10 games and 11 of their 14 contests in September – were surely hoping for something of a turnaround. However, they lost to the Rays for the fourth time in a week, and with three more contests between the Sox and the Rays it’s possible that there could be a dead heat in the AL Wild Card race by the end of the weekend (the Sox are currently three games ahead, and both club have 13 games remaining). Don’t forget that the Sox entered September leading the AL East ahead of the Yankees as well.

Why has the team struggled so greatly of late? Injuries have certainly played a key roll.

Josh Beckett should return to the hill today after missing some time with an injured ankle. He’s been fantastic this year with a 2.49 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his 27 outings.

Kevin Youkilis has fallen apart. Youkilis has a hip issue, and a hernia situation that will likely require surgery at the end of the season. Youk is hitting a mere .167 in September as the team has fallen apart.

Jed Lowrie continues to deal with a shoulder issue that last limited him to just one hit in September in 24-bats.

In terms of performance, Carl Crawford can’t keep his batting average over .250 (it’s currently at .249).

Daniel Bard has a loss in each of his last three appearances and in 4.2 innings in September he’s allowed eight runs.

Things have been so bad of late that Jonathan Papelbon, who has a 0.41 ERA and 0.36 WHIP in 22 innings since the All-Star break, hasn’t been handed a save opportunity since August 18th.

Once again, the AL East is providing most of the drama as we inch closer to the playoffs.

Can the Rays catch the Red Sox for the AL Wild Card spot and send the BoSox home without a playoff birth?

Can the suddenly hot Cardinals, now just 4.5 games out, catch the Braves for the NL Wild Card? Will the Rangers be able to hold off the Angels, whom the lead by 3.5 games, in the AL West?

No matter who makes it to the playoffs, be sure to check out the direcTV Guide for the scheduled times of the playoff matchups.

Around the Horn: May 5, 2011

(1) Tim Lincecum makes strikeout history as his fastball speed returns thanks to his offseason training (for more see Link O’ Rama).

(2) Josh Johnson the best early season pitcher in the game.

(3) Aaron Crow showing Royals his worth as a pen ace.

(4) Carl Crawford finally hitting, making history.

(5) Adrian Gonzalez productive, minus the power.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 22, 2011

(1) Slow starts for Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez.

(2) Torii Hunter struggling as bad as Vernon Wells.

(3) Josh Beckett looking aces, just like I wrote he would be in Is Josh Beckett Finished?

(4) James Loney looks terrible.

(5) Mat Latos struggling.

(6) Brandon Wood claimed by Pirates. For more on Wood see Conspiracies and Comebacks.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April8, 2011

(1) How imminent are the injury returns of Zack Greinke, Jake Peavy and Domonic Brown?

(2) Are the Red Sox in panic mode already? It seems like they might be.

(3) How good is Starlin Castro at just 21 years old?

(4) How out of control is Derek Lowe? Is he “breaking out?”

(5) Can Willie Bloomquist continue his torrid pace?

By Ray Flowers

Is Josh Beckett Finished?

A few weeks back there was an article in the Boston Herald written by John Tomase called Mound of facts against Josh Beckett in which he intimated that not only was John Beckett possibly done as a top level performer, but that the situation might even be more dire than that. Forgive me Mr. Tomase, but I think you’ve got your facts wrong, and I’ll lay out the case as to why Beckett still should have plenty of success in his future (to be fair, Mr. Tomase does end his piece with the following caveat: “It’s hard to fathom that Beckett could experience a similar fate, but for whatever it’s worth, the game’s entire history is working against him.”).

Fact: There have been 66 pitchers, who have produced 69 seasons, with an ERA above 5.75 in a season of at least 125 innings when the hurler was at least 30 years old.
Becket had an ERA of 5.78 over 127.2 innings in 2010 and he was 30 years old (injuries limited his innings).

Fact: History says that this list of hurlers failed to ever truly recapture their previous form, at least as a starting pitcher.
According to Tomase’s research, only three of the 66 hurlers “…managed to regain something even remotely approximating their form, at least as starters.”

This is the kind of trouble people get into all the time. It’s not that their facts are in error, it’s the interpretation of the data where the problems arise.

Here are the “facts” that people should pay attention to.

Fact 1: The history of hurlers being able to recapture their previous glory has no baring, absolutely none, on whether or not Beckett will be able to return to his previous form.

Fact 2: Beckett posted a K/9 rate of 8.18 in 2010, the 4th straight season that mark has been over eight, and the ninth time in 10 big league seasons that he has been over eight strikeouts per nine innings.

Fact 3: Though his walk rate was a bit elevated at 3.17 (career 2.77), his free pass rate was still better than the league average of 3.28.

Fact 4: His GB/FB ratio was 1.30, slightly better than his career average of 1.25, and the 8th straight season that mark has been above 1.20.

Fact 5: Beckett allowed a line drive rate of 19.0 percent which is slightly better than his career rate of 19.7 percent. Moreover, his ground ball rate was one percent above his career rate while his fly ball rate was a match for his career level.

Does any of that sound like a pitcher who is doomed to fail because history says he will? Of course not. The truth is that Beckett’s 2010 effort, despite his whopping 5.78 ERA, wasn’t that different from his “normal” effort. So why did he post an ERA that approached 6.00? I’ve got a couple of obvious explanations for the struggles, but here is the main point – flat out, he was unlucky.

(1) Given that his LD/GB/FB rates were all nearly identical to his career levels, it simply isn’t possible to explain why his BABIP rate was a career worst at .349, a full .044 points worse than his career average, unless we hang our hats on bad luck.

(2) When batters did hit the ball in the air it flew over the fence far too often. Becket has often surrendered gopher balls in bunches, but his career HR/9 mark of 1.01 isn’t awful, an in fact, it’s an almost dead on match for the league average. Somehow that mark jumped to 1.41 last year, this after 3-straight years between 0.76 and 1.06. Bad luck strikes yet again.

(3) Beckett allowed a HR/F ratio of 14.2 percent, the second worst mark in his 10-year career, and well above his career 11.0 percent rate (the big league average is usually 9-10 percent). Moreover, 2010 was only the third time in his career that he posted a mark over 10.5 percent.

(4) Beckett had a left on base percentage of 65.3 percent. Mind you the big league average is about 70 percent and that Beckett owns a career mark of 71.5 percent. Given that data you might have guessed that Beckett’s 65.3 percent mark was a career worst. If you came to that conclusion give yourself a pat on the back – you were correct.

Fact or Fiction: Beckett will return to being a top of the rotation arm?
Despite the interesting historical data in the Herald piece, I’m not buying the position that Beckett is finished. His underlying skills remain stable despite his terrible ERA from 2010, and there was clearly a whole heaping ton of bad luck tossed his way last season. With Beckett the key will be the same as it always is – can he stay healthy? If Beckett is healthy enough to throw 180+ innings in 2011, his performance will be strong despite the fact that history says he is fighting an uphill battle.

Arbitration Avoided

It only seems like every player in baseball signed a contract today.

A whole heaping ton of players avoided the arbitration process today by agreeing to contracts with their current clubs. I wont bore you to tears breaking down names like Boone Logan (1-year, $1.2 million), but I will discuss the deals for some of the bigger names guys who agreed to remain with their teams without having to go through the acrimonious arbitration process.

Chad Billingsley ($6.275 million): In each of the past four years he has won 12 games, only four others have done that, and in each of the past three years he has at least 170 Ks (only 10 others have done that).

Matt Capps ($7.15 million): The Twins wanted to keep a reliever who could close in case that Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) isn’t ready to fill the role 100 percent of the time in the early going. They therefore agreed to a deal to keep Capps, who had 42 saves last year. This is a smart baseball move that gives the Twins a terrific fall back option if Nathan isn’t ready, but in terms of real world dollars, it’s a pretty awful move for the Twins. This isn’t the Yankees we are talking about, so the $18.4 million the club has invested in their 8th and 9th inning arms is exorbitant.

John Danks ($6 million): Evolving into one of the best left-handed starters in baseball, Danks made $3.45 million last year. Amongst AL lefties the past two years he is 6th in ERA (3.75), 5th in base runners per nine innings (11.43), fifth in strikeouts (311) and fourth in wins (28).

Jacoby Ellsbury ($2.4 million): After playing only 18 games in 2010 this is a lot of money for Ellsbury. However, if he returns to health, pushes .300 with 90 runs and 50 steals, it will be a massive bargain for the Red Sox.

Matt Garza ($5.95 million): I broke down the Garza and his talents in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

J.J. Hardy ($5.85 million): A decent figure for both sides if Hardy is healthy. If he is in fact fully functional, he could hit .270 with 20 homers, and there are only a handful of shortstops who can match that.

Phil Hughes ($2.7): A reasonable sum to be sure if he is indeed a third starter. Hughes won 18 games with a 1.25 WHIP last season, but he was decidedly average in the second half of the year (7-6, 4.90 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

Kendry Morales ($2.975 million): He could be a top-10 option at first base this season, so don’t forget about the guy who blew his knee out celebrating a walk-off home run in his last game of the 2010 season.

Jonathan Papelbon ($12 million): Yikes. You have to think he will be taking a pay cut next year when he becomes a free agent, but because of the arbitration process the Red Sox were basically forced to pay way to much money for a guy who, it can be argued, is coming off his worst season in five years as the closer. Luckily it’s the Red Sox who seem to have a printing press for bills in the basemen of Fenway.

Martin Prado ($3.1 million): The plan is for him to play left field. His bat is likely miscast for that role – at least in terms of it providing a lot of fantasy value – but for 2011 at least he will still qualify as second and third baseman leaving him with a ton of value. Oh yeah, he also hit .307 in 2009, .307 in 2010 and owns a career average of, you guessed it, .307.

Carlos Quentin ($5.05 million): He might always struggle to repeat his terrific 2008 season (.288-36-100-96 in just 130 games), but he has a nice power bat. If he can stay healthy he could be Adam Dunn Jr. hitting .250 with 30 homers.

Cody Ross ($6.3 million): He made $4 million last season when he had a merely average regular season (.269-14-65-71-9). However, he had big hit after big hit in the postseason (.294-5-10) which basically forced the Giants hand. He isn’t a good bet for anything other than an ordinary .270-20-75 season.

By Ray Flowers