Player Profile: Cody Ross

Cody Ross had a solid season for the Red Sox as he went deep 22 times while knocking in 81 runs. Some folks around Boston seem to think that Ross is the second coming of Jim Rice. I’m here to tell you he’s not the second coming of Dwight Evans, not even close. What is Ross? He’s a solid 5th outfielder in mixed leagues in fantasy baseball, nothing more, no matter what anyone tells you. Let’s investigate.

NOTE: The D’backs signed Ross to a 3-year, $26 million deal. That’s a bit much for my liking, not crazy high but a bit much. Moreover, his signing overloads the D’backs with outfielders so it seems likely that Jason Kubel or Justin Upton could be dealt to open up playing time for Ross, Adam Eaton, Gerardo Parra and either Kubel/Upton. I don’t know what the D’backs are doing. See my Player Profile of Justin Upton.

Ross had a great season if you ask Red Sox fans. My reply to that is that he had a great season relative to the abysmal effort of the Red Sox last season. In the grander scheme of things, “great season” can only be applied to Ross if you mean it in the sense of the return on your draft day investment (there were tons of mixed leagues where he wasn’t drafted, and in that situation 21 homers and 81 RBIs is a great season). Some perspective from your favorite downer (that’s me by the way).

After batting .282 in his first 49 games Ross batted .237 over his last 81 games leading to a .267 average on the year. What part of that looks good to you? It should also be noted that the AL batting average last season was .256 and that outfielders hit .265 (Ross is a .262 career hitter). He’s barely treading water here.

More of the same… for the fourth straight season Ross had an OBP in the .320′s, hardly a shock given his career .324 mark. Last season the AL average was .320 making Ross blah as blah gets. Ross also posted a 0.33 BB/K ratio, a tenth below the league average and virtually identical to his career 0.34 mark. It deserves to be noted as well that his 24.4 K-rate was a career worst for a season of at least 150 at-bats.

Ross finished the year with 22 homers, the third time he has reached 20 homers and two off his career best of 24. However, he hit only nine homers over his final 74 games and just six over his last 56 contests. What you see is what you get here. Ross’ 14.9 percent HR/F ratio was actually a five years high, but it still didn’t lead to a big time homer mark cause he just isn’t that strong a hitter.

His RBI total of 81 was the second best of his career (he had 90 in 2009). At the same time that number is far from impressive for a guy who played for the Red Sox and had a change to play half his games at Fenway.

His run scored mark of 70 was the third time in four years he reached that level. Still, it’s not a very impressive number for a mixed league outfielder, is it?

He stole two bases while being caught three times. Over the last three seasons he’s stolen 16 bases. Yippee.

So here is what I see. Tell me there I’m wrong.

For his career Ross has hit .262. For his career the league average is .264.
For his career Ross has a .324 OBP. The league average is .334.
For his carer Ross has a .460 SLG. The league average is .420.
For his career Ross has a .783 OPS. The league average is .753.

Per 150 games played Ross has produced a fantasy line of .262-21-76-67-5. None of that stands out in any way. I would also be remiss if I didn’t note that in a career that began back in 2003 that Ross has played 150 games only twice. Part of the reason for that is that he undershoots his already boring career numbers when he faces right-handed pitching: .253/.312/.415. I’m sorry D’backs fans, but this guys isn’t anything special. The only way that Ross is truly worthy of paying attention to in a mixed league he must convince his employers to give him 500 at-bats. Even with 500 at-bats your still looking at a guy who is barely average across the board. You can do better when it comes to late round gambles in the fantasy game.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Jonny Gomes

Jonny Gomes had a strong season for the Athletics in 2012 as he hit .262 with 18 homers, 47 RBIs and 46 runs scored in just 279 at-bats. Thinking that effort, in such an abbreviated campaign might lead to riches, Gomes decided to leave the Bay Area where he was born (Petaluma) and went to school (Santa Rosa Junior College) for the greener past pastures of Boston as the Red Sox game him a two year deal for $10 million (reportedly double the amount of cashola that the Athletics were said to be offering). Will the just turned 32 year old, his b-day was on Thanksgiving, be able to justify that outlay of cash the next couple of seasons?

Jonny, I lost the “h” somewhere in transit, is a power hitter. How on earth would I say that about a guy who last hit 20 homers and never more than 21 in a season that began back in 2003? Per 500 at-bats, Gomes averages 26 homers for his career, a solid mark, that is augmented by an average total of 78 RBIs. However, Gomes has failed to ever reach 90 RBIs or 26 homers in a season because of one salient fact: he just doesn’t hit right-handed pitching very well. Given that the majority of pitchers are righties, that’s a problem. It’s also the main reason that Gomes has reached 400 at-bats in a season just one time in his big league career (511 in 2010). Here are the numbers.

2012
vs. lefties: .299/.413/.561 in 164 ABs
vs. righties: .209/.324/.391 in 115 ABs

This is far from a one year issue. It’s always been the way it has been.

Career
vs. lefties: .284/.382/.512 in 934 ABs
vs. righties: .223/.307/.425 in 1,712 ABs

Some perspective. Given his career numbers he is basically Chase Headley against lefties and Mark Reynolds against righties (at least their 2012 version). Clearly he is best utilized in an environment that would play to his strengths, and that would be sitting against the toughest righties, an in fact, sitting against most righties. This situation kills his fantasy value cause it’s not like the Red Sox are unaware of his massive lefty/righty splits. That means his production from last season should be looked at as the expected level of production (don’t simply think to yourself if the Sox gave him 550 at-bats this coming season that he would hit 35 homers with 95 RBIs and 95 runs scored). To that end, here are his homer and RBI totals, normalized to 350 at-bats for his career: 18 homers, 54 RBIs and 54 runs scored. Last season, remember, his totals were nearly spot on with those marks (18-74-46). Honestly, Gomes only should be drafted in AL-only leagues in 2013, at least if you are planning on him being a player of note, because it’s not like the Red Sox aren’t going to bring in another quality body to platoon with him in the outfield (I still believe this despite the fact that this report in the Boston Globe says the Red Sox have “big plans” for Gomes). If Gomes does get 500 at-bats he will provide plenty of power, but I’m not remotely sold on that happening as I just wrote.

The move to Fenway should help Gomes to beat extra base hits around Fenway Park. Last season Boston was 10th in baseball according to Park Factors in the homer category, light years better than O.co Coliseum (the dumbest stadium name in pro sports?). Fenway was also a doubles haven ranking first in baseball (27 percent higher than every other home ball yard) while O.co (the stupidest names in pro sports?) ranked 27th. As for run scored, Fenway Park was again near the top of the list at third best in baseball while O.co (the lamest name in pro sports?) ranked one spot better in doubles than homers, 22nd. Will that be enough to offset the lack of at-bats that are likely headed his way? Of course not, but it certainly sets up well for Gomes to be a very effective hitter per plate appearance.

Speaking of his work at the plate, the guy might own a poor .244 career batting average, but he gets on base pretty well with a .334 OBP, some .090 points above his average (if he was a .270 hitter the relative difference would lead to an OBP of .360). Too bad he’s also a whiff machine who strikes out once every 3.19 at-bats or roughly once a game in his big league career. That lack of an ability to put the bat on the wall has led to a 0.37 BB/K ratio, a tenth below the big league average, and a key indicator that he may not hit even the league average unless he is heavily rested against right-handed pitching.

The Red Sox signing of Gomes was a good move. Did they overpay? Probably, but it was only a two year deal and the Sox have the money to overpay for a part-time player whereas other organizations do not. Note the key phrase of “part-time player.” The Red Sox aren’t stupid. They aren’t going to try and save a few bucks and run Gomes out there as their everyday corner outfielder and give him 550 at-bats. History has shown that would be a mistake with Gomes. Since the Sox are intelligent about the way they put a team together, and since they have the funds necessary to add parts to their roster as needed, you would have to think that another outfielder will be signed to take the at least some of at-bats against righties away from Gomes. Throw in a middling batting average, and no more than eight steals in any of the last five seasons, and you should have all the reasons you need to avoid the line of thought that Gomes is going to be a fantasy beast in mixed leagues. If by some odd chance the Red Sox don’t bring in another bat then my line of thought would change and there could be a 30-90 season in the cards (note I used the word “could” not likely), but there’s just no scenario that I can foresee that has him as anything other than an end game fantasy add for mixed leaguers in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Kevin Youkilis

Kevin Youkilis played for both the Red Sox and the White Sox in 2012, and neither team, the player, or the fantasy owner were happy with how the oft injured 33 year old performed (Youkilis will be 34 in March). Was all the hoopla with Booby, I mean Bobby, Valentine in Boston a mere blip on the road for Youkilis (he did perform better in Chicago)? Can Youkilis resurrect his once bright career, with the Evil Empire no less (he signed a 1-year, $12 million deal to go from the Sox to the Yankees in the most stick it to your face for treating me badly Beantown move he could make), or have injuries and the advance of Father Time relegated Youkilis to the realm of mid round draft picks that you are just hoping will pay off in the fantasy game?

The most obvious issue with Youkilis is his inability to stay on the field. After appearing in 145 games each year from 2006-08, Youkilis dipped to 136 games played in 2009. He then fell to 102 games played in 2010, 120 in 2011 and 122 last season. That means his average the past three years is 115 games a season. You can’t count on a player who is going to miss that much time because even if his rate of production is solid – more on that in a moment – a month an a half of missed games each season is unexceptable even if that player qualifies at multiple spots (Youkilis will be first base and third base eligible next season after appearing in more than 20 gamas at each spot).

A .283 career hitter, Youkilis hit .235 last season which is a dreadful mark by any measure (.233 with the Red S. and .236 with the White S.). A one year fall off? Perhaps. However, considering that he also hit a mere .258 in 2011 we need to investigate further. The first thing I notice is that the Greek God of Walks posted a 10.0 percent BB-rate, the lowest of his career in 2012 (the previous three years that mark was in the 13′s). Youkilis also struck out at the second highest rate of his career, his K-rate was 21.2, and the resulting 0.47 K/BB ratio was a career worst (career 0.67). He will need to rectify that situation immediately if that average is going to get back into the “normal” range for him. Second, his .268 BABIP was also a career worst, and the second straight year under .300 since he posted a mark of .296 in 2011. When you own a career mark of .322 this is a red flag. Oddly, his line drive rate has held steady the past two years at 20 and 20.7 percent (career 21.2) giving him an inkling of hope that perhaps he will be able to return to the world of the living in the batting average category.

As for his power, we’re talking 3-straight year with less than 20 homers. Of course, as I noted above, he’s just not playing enough games to really rack up totals in the counting categories. Given his rate last season – 19 homers in 122 games – if he had appeared in 140 games he would have gone deep 22 times. An issue with the long ball power though is a declining fly ball rate. From 2006-2010 Kevin was uber-consistent with a fly ball rate between 44.3 and 46.7 percent. The last two years that number has dipped to 38 and 36 percent. A one year fall of can be written off to some extent, but when you do it two years in a row, there is concern. At least he is still converting fly balls into homers at a solid rate as evidenced by his last five years of HR/F ratios: 14.9, 16.5, 13.6, 13.3 and 15.7 percent.

On the plus side we also have his rate of production with the White Sox. In 80 games with the Pale Hoes Youkilis went deep 15 times, knocked in 46 runs and scored 47 times. Given a baseline of 140 games that would lead to 26 homers, 81 RBIs and 82 runs scored, levels of production that aren’t at all different than what he was producing in his “salad days.”

I’m a big fan of Youkilis’ game, even if I detest his hideous setup position in the batters box (why in the world didn’t some batting coach at some point simply forbid him from his ludicrous hand position?). However, I’m not blind to what the numbers and what my eyes are telling me. Youkilis has drastically underperformed for two years now, and he’s basically been injured three years running. Is it fair to think that a 34 year old with a wounded ego will be able to turn back the clock? Maybe, but the arrow certainly isn’t tilting to ‘it’s a lock.’ Youkilis will need to regain his approach at the dish in order for the success to return, an I see no reason while he couldn’t do that with health. However, his production must be called into question given declining BABIPs mark and fly ball rates the past two years. Youkilis should be one of those middle round draft selections that you make with little expectation. Take him early enough that you don’t miss out on the dual position threat, but also make sure you roster him at a point where if he repeats his efforts from last season that he doesn’t kill your team. Youkilis is a corner infield option in mixed leagues on the hope that he hasn’t lost his game, that a move to New York and it’s strong hitter’s park will help, and that he is just mad enough to do his best to stick it to the Red Sox while in pinstripes.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Shane Victorino

I’ve always been a fan of the Flyin’ Hawaiian. Shane Victorino has long been one of those players who doesn’t hurt you in any of the five fantasy categories. He’s also one of the rare players that usually offers something positive in each of the five categories. The Red Sox realized how valuable a performer that Victorino is as they lavished on him a three year deal worth $39 million to be an everyday member of their club. Coming off his worst full season we have to assess whether or not it’s time to change our view of a player that is always cheaper on draft day than he should be.

In a season split between the Phillies and Dodgers, Victorino wasn’t up to his normal standards. He hit .255, a career worst. His total of 11 homers was a three year low and just one above his full season low. His total of 55 RBIs was a five year low. His total of 72 runs scored was a six year low. Does his total of 39 steals, a career best, offset the negative? Not even close, but at least it helped to keep his season from falling into the fantasy abyss. Why the struggles from the only player in baseball who has hit 10 homers, with 55 RBIs, 70 runs scored and 19 steals each of the past five years?

This is the second time in three years that Victorino has hit in the .250′s, and that’s a concern. The career .275 hitter batted at least .281 from 2006-09, but the last three years have seen him hit .259, .279 and .255. We often speak of rolling three year trends helping to set baselines, so perhaps we should admit to ourselves that Victorino may only be a hit every four at-bat kinda guy as a 32 year old (Nov. 30th). After all, Shane has failed to reach his career average of 18.5 percent in the line drive rate the past three years (17.4, 15.8 and 17.8 percent). He’s also failed to reach his .296 career BABIP the last three years (.273, .292 and .278). None of that speaks to a substantial batting average turnaround for Victorino in ’13.

We can pretty much gloss over the homer/RBI discussion. It’s just not Victorino’s game, even if he offers a little bit of something each year.

Running though is something that Victorino does, and does well. In two of the last three years he’s stolen at least 34 bases, and he’s hit that mark in four of the last six years (the two times he missed he swiped 25 and 19 bases). He’s going to run. Not just that, he’s going to be very successful at it as he has been caught just 23 times the past four years while stealing 117 bases (an 84 percent success rate). What makes his total last season even more impressive is that he reached his career best of 39 thefts despite a .321 OBP, .020 points below his career mark and his worst total since 2005. Part of the reason he was able to mount a high total was due to the fact that he was able to record 640 plate appearances for just the third time, but still gotta give him props for the theft total (will the Red Sox allow him to run as much? A fair question).

Something that should be pointed out. Having interviewed former GM Steve Phillips on The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (my daily radio show on Sirius210 and XM87), I’m still struck by one of the things he related during the visit. He said he respects Victorino for his all out style of play, but he’s also a bit concerned about it. Victorino grinds through at-bats and games very well, but that style of play eventually wears you down. It also means that when the player is struggling he works even harder to get out of it. Sometimes that extra effort works, but at other times it leads to a lengthening of the slump. When dealt to the Dodgers he hit .245 as he tried to prove his worth. Might he do the same thing with his new team in Boston – try too hard with the results not being the level of production we’ve come to expect?

When I look at Victorino I still think of him as a strong 4th outfielder in mixed leagues. He continues to run, and that will always help him maintain his value, and he still offers enough of an all-around game that no one should be disappointed if he ends up on their squad, even if you aren’t going to want to pull back on a twelve pack of Tecate, which I like more than Corona, to celebrate.

By Ray Flowers

Player Proflie: Mike Napoli

Mike Napoli does something very few players who wear the tools of ignorance can do – he strikes fear into pitchers when he strides to the dish. It’s fair to point out that he isn’t a fantastic defender, he’s certainly competent, but when his potent bat is added to the mix he’s one of the unique weapons at the catcher position (it should be noted that he’s also played a lot of first base the past three years). Add in that he was born on Halloween and he has to be a great player, right? Don’t tell that to people that owned Napoli in 2012 though as his effort was seen as a whopper of a downer after his massive 2011 effort (.320-30-75 with a 1.046 OPS). I’m here to tell you though that his ’12 production was right in line with expectations, that is unless you were expecting too much as most of us were.

NOTE: For those of you living in a cave, Napoli signed a three year deal with the Red Sox for a reported $39 million. They plan on slotting him at first base on most days, though he will still see some time behind the dish.

As I pointed out in my 2012 Positional Review of Catchers, Napoli’s power stroke in 2012 was exactly what you should have expected. From 2008-11 he averaged 24 homers. In 2012 he hit 24 homers. Of course people were disappointed when he failed to match his career best total of 30 homers from 2011, but as I always touch on with players, many times their “failures” are based on our unrealistic expectations. Napoli is the poster boy for out of control expectations. How is a guy who matches his previous four year average in anything seen as a disappointment? The real problem is that Napoli can’t convince anyone to give him at-bats. Only once has he been given 400 at-bats in a season, and that’s what’s holding down his power output, not a lack of talent. That will likely change this year in Boston. More on that in a moment.

Napoli saw his RBI total dip from 75 to 56, so again, total failure right? Well, not really. From 2008-10 Napoli averaged 58 RBIs a season. Just like with the homers, this really wasn’t as big a drop off as many suspected.

Napoli’s runs scored drop from 72 to 53 is discouraging. Still, as with his HR/RBI totals, you should have expected a fall off. Not only did his OBP go down, more on that in a second, but he was never a big run producer before. In fact, from 2008-10 Napoli averaged exactly… 53 runs a season.

‘But what about the batting average Ray, how in the world can you explain a .093 point drop and make us feel good about it?’ Other than the .320 average in 2011, Napoli has never hit .275 in a season (that’s six other seasons under .275). Napoli also owns a career .259 batting average. So let’s put it this way. Which number, .320 or .227, is further from his career mark? His .227 batting average last season is .032 points off his career mark while his .320 batting average in ’11 is .061 points off. That’s nearly double the difference from his 2012 mark to his career average. Looking at it that way, which number is the outlier? Exactly.

Napoli saw his OBP tank in ’12 from his career best .414 down to .343. Again, which of those two numbers fits in better with his career given that his career mark is .356? I’m concerned that his K-rate exploded, it was 30 percent last season (25.4 for his career) and that didn’t help matters at all, but the fact is that his 0.45 BB/K rate was right on his career 0.47 mark. Again, 2011 was the outlier, not 2012.

I won’t even bother going through the same analysis for his SLG percentage. I’ll just list the numbers and let you draw your own conclusions: .631 in 2011, .469 in 2012, .507 for his career.

Let me boil this down for you. The 2011 season is the outlier, not everything else Napoli has done for his career. He will never hit .320 again. He will never have a .414 OBP again. He will never have a .631 SLG again. He will never have a 1.046 OPS again. If he could get 500 at-bats he could easily challenge his counting number career bests (30 HR, 75 RBIs and 72 runs scored), and it certainly sounds like the Red Sox plan on giving him those at-bats this season, but the ratio marks are out of reach (this is likely the best time to own Napoli in the fantasy game as a catcher eligible player looking at 500+ ABs). So stop doing what everyone is doing with Napoli – comparing himself to his ’11 career effort. If you remove the season from the back of his ball card his 2012 season shouldn’t be seen as anything other than a solid effort from a power hitting catcher. It’s not Napoli’s fault that your expectations for him were unreasonable heading into 2012, so get over it.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Marco Scutaro

Some players get little respect. You know, they are the “glue” type players that you roster in the middle to late rounds that end up filling up the stat sheet rather nicely by the time that October rolls around even if no one really batted an eye when you called out their name at the draft table. One of those guys is Marco Scutaro. He’s never someone you target, and most of the time when you call out his name it’s merely because there really aren’t any better options out there, but there are certainly worse guys to target late as a middle infield option than the Rockies new second baseman.

Let me begin right where I just left off. Scutaro, who played just two games at second last season but has played regularly there during his big league career, will be the Rockies’ starting second baseman in 2012 (thanks Troy Tulowitzki). This is great news for Scutaro because he will be able to add second base to his shortstop qualification. When you’re thinking about grabbing a guy in the later rounds having positional flexibility like this is just another level of added value. You don’t have to take two players as a backup to your second baseman and shortstop, you can simply add a guy Scutaro to give you some depth.

Second, one of the keys with Scutaro is that he will be the Rockies new second baseman. Coors Field doesn’t play like it once did now that they humidor the hell out of the baseballs up there (some conspiracy theorists still maintain that the Rockies use a different set of “dead” baseball’s when the visiting team is at-bat), but at the same time it’s still a great place for a hitter to call home. Scutaro isn’t a home run hitter, his two best seasons are 11 and 12, but that misses the point. Scutaro is a strong extra base hitter who has rapped out 30 doubles in three seasons in his career while averaging 33 the past three years. The last three years Coors has been the best park in the NL for doubles, 22 percent greater than the league average park according to Park Indices. Scutaro should be hitting plenty of two baggers this season.

Scutaro has hit .270 for his career, an over his last three years he has hit at least .275 each time. He’s a good bet to keep that up in 2012, not just because of his home yard, but because of his approach. For his career Scutaro owns a 0.80 BB/K mark, well above the big league average of about 0.50, and the last time that number dipped below 0.75 for Scutaro was when George Bush Jr. was president (2004). He won’t damage your teams’ batting average and he has at least an even shot of actually helping in the category.

Since he became an every day player in 2008, Scutaro has been a solid performer. Even including his effort last season in which he was only able to accrue 395 at-bats, here is what an average 5×5 season has looked like for Scutaro since 2008: .280-9-58-82-8. Again, that’s nothing special, but those are replacement level stuff that you can get on the cheap at the draft table. Would you rather roster guys like Zack Cozart or Jason Bartlett late? I know I wouldn’t.

Scutaro doesn’t do anything that stands out, but I wouldn’t be drafting Scutaro to win me a league. I’d be drafting Scutaro as a player who, given 500 at-bats, is going to be a great return on my investment. He’ll qualify at both middle infield spots, likely hit at least .280, score a bunch of runs, and knock in enough to be worthy of strong consideration in deep mixed leagues as a middle infielder. Don’t forget about the little fella when your draft moves into the 20′s – Scutaro is someone you can fill your roster out with on the cheap who will end up providing you more than passable numbers if he can stay healthy.

Click here to get your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

The Day After

I’ve been doing a lot of player profiles recently, so I thought it would be nice to change things up today and return to my helter skelter ways of days past. So strap in as we fly around the majors.

Bruce Chen and the Royals have some kind of love affair. Chen was rewarded for solid work with the Royals the last few years when he was given a 2-year deal for $9 million (there are also performance based incentives that could total a million dollars for the lefty). Chen has gone 24-15 for the Royals the past two years, an impressive record given that club’s issues, but his 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP the past two years just aren’t that exciting. Toss in a poor 5.94 K/9 ratio, and another poor mark in the K/BB column (1.82), and I’m not remotely as excited about Chen as the Royals appear to be.

Freddy Garcia will make $4 million on his one year deal with the Yankees (there’s like another million in incentives in there as well). It’s a solid deal for both sides but just not something that should get you excited (Garcia is the right-handed version of Chen actually). Garcia won 12 games with a 3.62 ERA in 2011, and he could repeat those numbers in 2012, but his K/9 has been under 6.00 each of the past three years and there is just nothing, not a single thing, that points to any upside.

The Giants are going to lose two outfielders who played key roles in the teams’ World Championship run a couple of years ago (neither player was offered arbitration). Pat Burrell is likely going to have to retire because of ongoing foot woes. If he is done he’ll retire with a career OBP of .361, 292 homers and 976 RBIs. That’s a solid career to be sure, but for a guy who was drafted first overall in 1998, perhaps his career was slightly disappointing? Cody Ross was injured in 2011 and limited to 405 at-bats, and his productivity when on the field was less than inspiring as he hit 14 homers with 52 RBI, 54 runs scored and a mere .730 OPS. Someone might give him a chance to start, but he’s best served as a strong fourth outfielder.

According to reports, David Ortiz could get up to $16 million if he goes to arbitration with the Red Sox. He wants at least a two year deal so he’s unlikely to accept arbitration, but $16 million for one year? I know Ortiz had a great year hitting .309 with 29 homers, 96 RBI and an OPS of .952, but he’s 36 years old and lost his glove years ago. I wouldn’t pay him that much.

Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes will get theirs, but it’s not surprising that the market for both is slowly developing since both want huge money deals. Bank on this though. All those rumors about the Marlins signing all the big ticket free agents, such as these two, is sheer poppycock. I think it’s all a shell game to make the fans think they’re trying harder than they really are down in Florida.

Carlos Pena was offered arbitration by the Cubs but he really wants to sign a multi-year deal. Pena owns a career .239 batting average, and the last three years he hasn’t hit even .228 a single time. He does keep pounding the ball though. The last five years Pena has hit at least 28 homers with 80 RBI each season. Can’t argue with that though his pathetic average will cause that check to be smaller than he had hoped for.

Dan Wheeler was offered arbitration from the Red Sox. Wheeler posted a 4.38 ERA, but as usual, his performance was pretty darn solid. Wheeler walked only eight batters all year leading to a 1.46 BB/9 mark that led to a superb 4.88 K/BB ratio, the second time in two years that he’s posted a mark over 4.75. He’s nowhere near elite, but he’s one valuable bullpen arm.

By Ray Flowers

Misery Loves Company

I know everyone is doing it, and while I’m not a follower – never have been – I felt the need to write the obligatory article dealing with the two massive collapses authored by the Red Sox and the Braves.

THE RED SOX

On September 1st the Sox led the AL East by 1.5 games over the Yankees, and they were nine games ahead of the Rays. The Sox maintained that nine game lead over the Rays as late as September 3rd. They proceeded to go 6-18 from that point forward to becomes the first time in the history of the game to squander a nine game September lead. “I’m devastated. I’m heartbroken,” Dustin Pedroia said. “To play hard for 161 games like we have and have it end like this…”

Why did they collapse? The offense was fine down the stretch, but it was the pitching that let them down. The Red Sox starters posted an ERA of 7.08 for the month of September.

THE BRAVES

If not for the Red Sox collapse, the Braves flop would be considered the worst in the history of the game.

On August 26th the Braves had a 10.5 game lead over the Cardinals.
On September 5th the Braves had an 8.5 game lead over the Cardinals.

You can blame injuries to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens, the Braves #2 and #3 starters, and no one could honestly claim that wasn’t a huge hole to fill. But still, going 9-18 including a 5-game losing streak to end the season? You just witnessed the greatest collapse in the history of the National League. “I can’t fathom it,” Freddie Freeman said.

Pitiful.

ROTATION QUESTION

You tell me, which rotation would you rather face this postseason?

Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Chris Carpenter
Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders
CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia

OR

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner

Who out there isn’t thanking the baseball gods for not having to face the Giants top-3 in the playoffs this year?

CHEERS TO

Justin Verlander led the American League in wins (24), ERA (2.40) and strikeouts (250) to capture the Pitcher’s Triple Crown.

Clayton Kershaw led the National League in wins (21 to tie with Ian Kennedy), ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248). I’m going to give him the NL Triple Crown as well even though he tied for the league lead in wins.

BOOS TO

I know it’s a 162 game season, and that Jose Reyes had 537 at-bats on the year so it’s not really fair to call him out for one game, but it was weak sauce that he bunted for a hit in his first at-bat and then pulled himself from his final game to win the NL batting title over Ryan Braun (it ended up being a .337 to .332 race). For the story of how a real man does it, make sure you click on the link to the story about Ted Williams final day in 1941.

By Ray Flowers

Follow the Playoff Race

Despite the fact that the beginning of the NFL season is occupying much of the sports world’s interest, it’s about time to start checking your direcTV guide for MLB playoff times, as the postseason is just around the corner. In fact, the postseason is also nearly set, with the tightest pennant race taking place in the American League West, where the Angels have slowly but surely gained ground on the Rangers. Aside from this, and barring some very improbably comebacks and collapses, the postseason’s team roster is just about set – though the Red Sox seem to be making every effort to change that.

Thursday night the Red Sox continued their suddenly dramatic-looking late season slide by losing a 9-2 romp at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Sox – losers of 2 of their last 10 games and 11 of their 14 contests in September – were surely hoping for something of a turnaround. However, they lost to the Rays for the fourth time in a week, and with three more contests between the Sox and the Rays it’s possible that there could be a dead heat in the AL Wild Card race by the end of the weekend (the Sox are currently three games ahead, and both club have 13 games remaining). Don’t forget that the Sox entered September leading the AL East ahead of the Yankees as well.

Why has the team struggled so greatly of late? Injuries have certainly played a key roll.

Josh Beckett should return to the hill today after missing some time with an injured ankle. He’s been fantastic this year with a 2.49 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his 27 outings.

Kevin Youkilis has fallen apart. Youkilis has a hip issue, and a hernia situation that will likely require surgery at the end of the season. Youk is hitting a mere .167 in September as the team has fallen apart.

Jed Lowrie continues to deal with a shoulder issue that last limited him to just one hit in September in 24-bats.

In terms of performance, Carl Crawford can’t keep his batting average over .250 (it’s currently at .249).

Daniel Bard has a loss in each of his last three appearances and in 4.2 innings in September he’s allowed eight runs.

Things have been so bad of late that Jonathan Papelbon, who has a 0.41 ERA and 0.36 WHIP in 22 innings since the All-Star break, hasn’t been handed a save opportunity since August 18th.

Once again, the AL East is providing most of the drama as we inch closer to the playoffs.

Can the Rays catch the Red Sox for the AL Wild Card spot and send the BoSox home without a playoff birth?

Can the suddenly hot Cardinals, now just 4.5 games out, catch the Braves for the NL Wild Card? Will the Rangers be able to hold off the Angels, whom the lead by 3.5 games, in the AL West?

No matter who makes it to the playoffs, be sure to check out the direcTV Guide for the scheduled times of the playoff matchups.

Around the Horn: May 5, 2011

(1) Tim Lincecum makes strikeout history as his fastball speed returns thanks to his offseason training (for more see Link O’ Rama).

(2) Josh Johnson the best early season pitcher in the game.

(3) Aaron Crow showing Royals his worth as a pen ace.

(4) Carl Crawford finally hitting, making history.

(5) Adrian Gonzalez productive, minus the power.

By Ray Flowers