Around the Horn: April 22, 2011

(1) Slow starts for Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez.

(2) Torii Hunter struggling as bad as Vernon Wells.

(3) Josh Beckett looking aces, just like I wrote he would be in Is Josh Beckett Finished?

(4) James Loney looks terrible.

(5) Mat Latos struggling.

(6) Brandon Wood claimed by Pirates. For more on Wood see Conspiracies and Comebacks.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April8, 2011

(1) How imminent are the injury returns of Zack Greinke, Jake Peavy and Domonic Brown?

(2) Are the Red Sox in panic mode already? It seems like they might be.

(3) How good is Starlin Castro at just 21 years old?

(4) How out of control is Derek Lowe? Is he “breaking out?”

(5) Can Willie Bloomquist continue his torrid pace?

By Ray Flowers

Is Josh Beckett Finished?

A few weeks back there was an article in the Boston Herald written by John Tomase called Mound of facts against Josh Beckett in which he intimated that not only was John Beckett possibly done as a top level performer, but that the situation might even be more dire than that. Forgive me Mr. Tomase, but I think you’ve got your facts wrong, and I’ll lay out the case as to why Beckett still should have plenty of success in his future (to be fair, Mr. Tomase does end his piece with the following caveat: “It’s hard to fathom that Beckett could experience a similar fate, but for whatever it’s worth, the game’s entire history is working against him.”).

Fact: There have been 66 pitchers, who have produced 69 seasons, with an ERA above 5.75 in a season of at least 125 innings when the hurler was at least 30 years old.
Becket had an ERA of 5.78 over 127.2 innings in 2010 and he was 30 years old (injuries limited his innings).

Fact: History says that this list of hurlers failed to ever truly recapture their previous form, at least as a starting pitcher.
According to Tomase’s research, only three of the 66 hurlers “…managed to regain something even remotely approximating their form, at least as starters.”

This is the kind of trouble people get into all the time. It’s not that their facts are in error, it’s the interpretation of the data where the problems arise.

Here are the “facts” that people should pay attention to.

Fact 1: The history of hurlers being able to recapture their previous glory has no baring, absolutely none, on whether or not Beckett will be able to return to his previous form.

Fact 2: Beckett posted a K/9 rate of 8.18 in 2010, the 4th straight season that mark has been over eight, and the ninth time in 10 big league seasons that he has been over eight strikeouts per nine innings.

Fact 3: Though his walk rate was a bit elevated at 3.17 (career 2.77), his free pass rate was still better than the league average of 3.28.

Fact 4: His GB/FB ratio was 1.30, slightly better than his career average of 1.25, and the 8th straight season that mark has been above 1.20.

Fact 5: Beckett allowed a line drive rate of 19.0 percent which is slightly better than his career rate of 19.7 percent. Moreover, his ground ball rate was one percent above his career rate while his fly ball rate was a match for his career level.

Does any of that sound like a pitcher who is doomed to fail because history says he will? Of course not. The truth is that Beckett’s 2010 effort, despite his whopping 5.78 ERA, wasn’t that different from his “normal” effort. So why did he post an ERA that approached 6.00? I’ve got a couple of obvious explanations for the struggles, but here is the main point – flat out, he was unlucky.

(1) Given that his LD/GB/FB rates were all nearly identical to his career levels, it simply isn’t possible to explain why his BABIP rate was a career worst at .349, a full .044 points worse than his career average, unless we hang our hats on bad luck.

(2) When batters did hit the ball in the air it flew over the fence far too often. Becket has often surrendered gopher balls in bunches, but his career HR/9 mark of 1.01 isn’t awful, an in fact, it’s an almost dead on match for the league average. Somehow that mark jumped to 1.41 last year, this after 3-straight years between 0.76 and 1.06. Bad luck strikes yet again.

(3) Beckett allowed a HR/F ratio of 14.2 percent, the second worst mark in his 10-year career, and well above his career 11.0 percent rate (the big league average is usually 9-10 percent). Moreover, 2010 was only the third time in his career that he posted a mark over 10.5 percent.

(4) Beckett had a left on base percentage of 65.3 percent. Mind you the big league average is about 70 percent and that Beckett owns a career mark of 71.5 percent. Given that data you might have guessed that Beckett’s 65.3 percent mark was a career worst. If you came to that conclusion give yourself a pat on the back – you were correct.

Fact or Fiction: Beckett will return to being a top of the rotation arm?
Despite the interesting historical data in the Herald piece, I’m not buying the position that Beckett is finished. His underlying skills remain stable despite his terrible ERA from 2010, and there was clearly a whole heaping ton of bad luck tossed his way last season. With Beckett the key will be the same as it always is – can he stay healthy? If Beckett is healthy enough to throw 180+ innings in 2011, his performance will be strong despite the fact that history says he is fighting an uphill battle.

Arbitration Avoided

It only seems like every player in baseball signed a contract today.

A whole heaping ton of players avoided the arbitration process today by agreeing to contracts with their current clubs. I wont bore you to tears breaking down names like Boone Logan (1-year, $1.2 million), but I will discuss the deals for some of the bigger names guys who agreed to remain with their teams without having to go through the acrimonious arbitration process.

Chad Billingsley ($6.275 million): In each of the past four years he has won 12 games, only four others have done that, and in each of the past three years he has at least 170 Ks (only 10 others have done that).

Matt Capps ($7.15 million): The Twins wanted to keep a reliever who could close in case that Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) isn’t ready to fill the role 100 percent of the time in the early going. They therefore agreed to a deal to keep Capps, who had 42 saves last year. This is a smart baseball move that gives the Twins a terrific fall back option if Nathan isn’t ready, but in terms of real world dollars, it’s a pretty awful move for the Twins. This isn’t the Yankees we are talking about, so the $18.4 million the club has invested in their 8th and 9th inning arms is exorbitant.

John Danks ($6 million): Evolving into one of the best left-handed starters in baseball, Danks made $3.45 million last year. Amongst AL lefties the past two years he is 6th in ERA (3.75), 5th in base runners per nine innings (11.43), fifth in strikeouts (311) and fourth in wins (28).

Jacoby Ellsbury ($2.4 million): After playing only 18 games in 2010 this is a lot of money for Ellsbury. However, if he returns to health, pushes .300 with 90 runs and 50 steals, it will be a massive bargain for the Red Sox.

Matt Garza ($5.95 million): I broke down the Garza and his talents in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

J.J. Hardy ($5.85 million): A decent figure for both sides if Hardy is healthy. If he is in fact fully functional, he could hit .270 with 20 homers, and there are only a handful of shortstops who can match that.

Phil Hughes ($2.7): A reasonable sum to be sure if he is indeed a third starter. Hughes won 18 games with a 1.25 WHIP last season, but he was decidedly average in the second half of the year (7-6, 4.90 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

Kendry Morales ($2.975 million): He could be a top-10 option at first base this season, so don’t forget about the guy who blew his knee out celebrating a walk-off home run in his last game of the 2010 season.

Jonathan Papelbon ($12 million): Yikes. You have to think he will be taking a pay cut next year when he becomes a free agent, but because of the arbitration process the Red Sox were basically forced to pay way to much money for a guy who, it can be argued, is coming off his worst season in five years as the closer. Luckily it’s the Red Sox who seem to have a printing press for bills in the basemen of Fenway.

Martin Prado ($3.1 million): The plan is for him to play left field. His bat is likely miscast for that role – at least in terms of it providing a lot of fantasy value – but for 2011 at least he will still qualify as second and third baseman leaving him with a ton of value. Oh yeah, he also hit .307 in 2009, .307 in 2010 and owns a career average of, you guessed it, .307.

Carlos Quentin ($5.05 million): He might always struggle to repeat his terrific 2008 season (.288-36-100-96 in just 130 games), but he has a nice power bat. If he can stay healthy he could be Adam Dunn Jr. hitting .250 with 30 homers.

Cody Ross ($6.3 million): He made $4 million last season when he had a merely average regular season (.269-14-65-71-9). However, he had big hit after big hit in the postseason (.294-5-10) which basically forced the Giants hand. He isn’t a good bet for anything other than an ordinary .270-20-75 season.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez

I get it. A big bat gets paid bazillions of dollars, leaves the worst hitting park in baseball, and that transforms the player into a dynamic offensive weapon. I certainly buy that to a point with Adrian Gonzalez, but it seems like most of my fantasy brethren have been hitting the hookah pipe a bit too frequently when it comes to estimating Gonzalez’s fantasy value in 2011.

Over at Fanball in a well written article by Greg Ambrosius entitled NFBC: The Rise of A-Gone, Gregg points out how voters are loving them some Adrian Gonzalez because of the move out of Petco and to Fenway Park. Greg gives the data simply: before the Trade Gonzalez went 27th or 29th in the 15 team mixed league drafts for the NFBC. After the trade to Boston that number jumped to 20, 18, 16, 14 and 11.

Does that meteoric rise make any sense? Greg does a great job in the piece laying out the statistical reasons that seem to be behind the rise in Adrian’s ADP numbers. Greg also points out a rather interesting number that some may not be aware of – in each of the past four seasons Gonzalez has gone deep at least 20 times on the road (he never hit more than 14 at home). Does this mean he is a lock for 40 homers? I think “lock” is too strong a term for a guy who has hit 40 homers only once in his career. Why? I think it will surprise many people to learn that Fenway wasn’t exactly a homer heaven for left-handed batters last season. Seriously. Here are the Park Indices number for left-handed hitting batters, in the homer category, for 2011 for Petco and Fenway (100 is neutral, under 100 favors pitchers, over 100 favors hitters).

Petco: 64, 16th in the NL
Fenway: 86, 9th in the AL

The truth of the matter is that Fenway really doesn’t boost the power numbers of left-handed batters at all with a mark of 88 the past three years, 12th in the American League. Shocked aren’t you?

Beyond that, there are two major issues that concern me.

First of all, Gonzalez had shoulder surgery and while everyone believes he will be at or near 100 percent this season it’s quite possible that he will not be allowed to swing a bat until March. Do you really want to spend a first round pick on a guy who will only have a month of hacks under his belt before games count?

Second, what about the wealth of talent at first base in 2011? If you look at the Fanball Staff Rankings you will notice that I’m the lowest of the ranking members in terms of my placement of Gonzalez as I have him at 9th at the position. Is that too low? I’ll freely admit that it might be, by a lot. Still, I’d take Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard ahead of him with no problem. I think you have to also toss Prince Fielder into that mix even with some of his struggles last season since he still had 32 bombs and posted a .401 OBP (Gonzalez was at 31 and .393 by the way). Kevin Youkilis is also coming back from surgery but I might be convinced to move him behind the Red Sox new first baseman. Finally, the move of Adam Dunn to the White Sox would appear to give him a legit shot at 45 homers if not more. After all, U.S. Cellular Field in Chitown is first in Park Indices for homers the past three years, and fourth for left-handed batters.

Add all of that up and I’m gonna let someone else take Gonzalez with the 16th pick. I’ll happily wait 20 selections to roster Adam Dunn.

And finally, in the I told you so file…

Edgar Renteria was disrespected, or whatever he said, when the Giants offered him a 1-year deal for $1 million. Guess he had a right to feel that way. It looks like he got a deal from the Reds for $3 million. I don’t know if that makes him seem smart, or if that means the Reds are just lost?

By Ray Flowers

Insanity Reigns Supreme

In what follows you will read the tale of the best agent in baseball, a solid third basemen who is being paid as if he is the second coming of Mike Schmidt, and how a team with no chance of winning their division in 2011 is willing to dump $14 million into three moderately effective relievers.

Beltre to AL Champs

Now I’ve seen it all.

Middle relievers are getting multi year deals for more than $5 million a year, which is bad enough, but this whole Adrian Beltre situation has me totally befuddled until I read two words – Scott Boras. Somehow Beltre’s agent, Mr. Boras, has convinced the Rangers that they just had to have Beltre. Not only that, he’s convinced them to pay more than the $80-85 million Beltre was seeking as current reports put the deal he is on the verge of signing with the Rangers at 6-years and $96 million (see Postcards from Elysian Fields). Oh the deal isn’t done, and it does appear to have some language in it that could void the sixth year, but it seems like a near lock that it will get worked out. So here are my questions.

(1) Is Beltre worth that much money? I certainly don’t think so and I’ve written just that multiple times including an in depth look at the player in The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre. Give it a read before you think that the Rangers are spending their money wisely.

(2) How in the world did Mr. Boras get the Rangers to go six years and nearly $100 million on Beltre given that there seemed to be only one other team even remotely interested in Beltre? The Angels were the other team, but they reportedly pulled their 5-year, $70 million offer off the table when Beltre dragged his feat on accepting it. The Athletics long ago pulled out of the sweepstakes, and their offer was 5-years and $64 million according to reports. So again, I ask, how was Boras able to get six and 96 from the Rangers when no one else was reportedly within $25 million of that offer? There may be no person on the planet better at their job than Mr. Boras – not one.

(3) I can grant you that Beltre is a better defensive third baseman than Michael Young, but really, why the Rangers need to add Beltre to take over third and push Young to DH? Wouldn’t it have been more fiscally prudent just to leave Young at third and to bring free agent Vladimir Guerrero back to DH? Not only would they have saved something like $75 million compared to what they had to lay out for Beltre, their offense would likely have been just as good in 2011. Are the few runs a year that Beltre will save at third base worth the untold millions extra they are paying him?

(4) And finally, for the gazillionth time:
Beltre has one 30 homer season.
Beltre has two 100 RBI seasons.
Beltre has hit better than .290 just twice.

To compare – Aramis Ramirez has four 30-HR seasons, five 100 RBI efforts, and he has hit better than .290 six times, and few have ever considered him to be an elite option despite the fact that his offensive highs have dwarfed the efforts of Beltre.

Seriously, I just don’t get it.

Orioles Finally Sign Gregg

The Orioles finally got their man as they signed Kevin Gregg to a 2-year deal worth $10 million. According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, there is also a vesting option for a third year. For more on Gregg and his recent solid work on the hill spend a few moments looking over Hot Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy.

How does the end of the game look for the Orioles? They already have power lefty Michael Gonzalez in the pen, and he clearly can handle 9th inning work. I know he was injured last season and limited to just 24.2 innings last season because of injury, so the Orioles do need to make sure they have an alternative to Gonzalez. But still, they are paying him $6 million in 2011, and that is quite the cost for a setup man (and obviously, more than Gregg will be making). The Orioles did the smart thing and locked up control artist Koji Uehara for a mere $3 million on a one year deal (I say mere because of the aforementioned spending spree that GM’s went on this year with middle relievers). However, Uehara also had arm issues last season, and it’s unclear if he will be able to pitch every other day out of the bullpen. Uehara and Gonzalez are scheduled to make $9 million this year. Toss in another $5 million for Gregg and you are talking $14 million for those three arms in 2011. I guess in today’s age that isn’t too much to pay for a moderately successful closer, an injury prone lefty, and a guy who has thrown a total of 110.2 innings at the big league level.

Are you as pumped as I am about the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season? In order to help you kick off your quest to be a champion in ’11, we at Fanball have set out to provide you with all the tools that you need to accomplish your goal. Read more about how to start your journey in Your Fantasy Baseball Resolution where you will find links to staff rankings, projections, live advice and DraftPractice.com where you can mock away for FREE.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec. 29

I got nothing but rumors to discuss today, though I’m sure you won’t mind that given the clarity that I will bring to each free agents potential for the coming season.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Angels remain the most likely landing spot for Adrian Beltre. There are still rumblings out there that Beltre is seeking upwards of $85 million which seems like a crazy amount of dough to spend on a guy who is already 32 years old and one who has only one 30 homer season and just two with 100-RBI. Will the Angels bite since they missed out on their top target, Carl Crawford, who signed with the Red Sox? For more on Crawford give The End of Baseball? a read.

There are three relievers whose names are in the hopper right now as front burner type guys. Here are my thoughts on each.

Grant Balfour: On the Orioles radar, Balfour is the hardest thrower of this threesome. However, his average fastball is down two mph from its peak in 2008 when he was murder on hitters with a massive 12.65 K/9 mark as he held batters to a .143 average. He regressed in ’09 seeing his ERA almost triple to 4.81 as his K/9 rate plummeted to 9.22. While his K/9 rate was even worse last year at 9.11, he was able to cut a walk and a half off his BB/9 mark down to 2.77 (a career best) and that was a huge key to his return to success (2.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). Somehow he has been able to avoid allowing homers year after year despite the fact that 45 percent of batted balls have gone skyward. At this point, he has proven that this is a trend to be taken seriously as his HR/FB rate has been below nine percent each of the past five years. A nice addition to any pen if expectations are kept in check.

Hideki Okajima: On the A’s radar, Okajima is coming off his worst season – by a lot. He missed his career ERA by more than a run and a half at 4.50, while his WHIP was above 1.26 for the first time in four years at a sickly 1.72. Hideki also saw his K/9 rate dip one and a half batters below his career rate of 6.46 per nine, while his BB/9 was also a career worst (3.91). Already 35 years old, someone will take a chance on a rebound from Hideki and just write off last season as an injury induced slump, though I have my doubts it was only that.

Chad Qualls: Also on the A’s radar, Qualls is the hurler from this group I would most like to see “my” team sign. How can I say that when his ERA was 7.32 last year? Am I off my rocker? Possibly, but hear me out.

(1) Qualls can be had on the cheap coming off that dreadful season, and that’s a huge check mark in his favor with middle relievers getting massive deals this offseason.

(2) From 2005-09 he was one of the most consistent relievers in baseball. In that time he had never posted an ERA higher than 3.76 or a WHIP worse than 1.32 with an average effort of a 3.30 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

(3) Qualls is one of the best pitchers in baseball in terms of generating ground balls with a career GB/FB mark of 2.30. Even last season, when he was awful, he still posted a strong 1.95 mark. When you induce that many grounders, success will usually follow.

(4) Despite atrocious ratios last season, Qualls still pitched pretty well – and no, I’m not still hungover from celebrating my Sirius/XM Experts League Championship in fantasy football. Look at the numbers.

2010: 7.47 K/9, 1.95 GB/FB, 16.8 LD-rate, 55.0 GB-rate
career: 7.35 K/9, 2.30 GB/FB, 17.3 LD-rate, 57.6 GB-rate

So why the struggles. How about an utter lack of anything resembling even an iota of good will?

2010: 16.8 LD-rate, .399 BABIP, 53.0 LOB%
career: 17.3 LD-rate, .309 BABIP, 71.9 LOB%

Clearly, this guy left his rabbit’s foot at home last year. His BABIP mark was the worst in baseball amongst pitchers who threw 50-innings, despite better than a career average line drive rate. That will not repeat in ’11. Qualls also went from a slightly better than average pitcher in terms of stranding runners to being an abysmal failure as he was, again, the worst pitcher in baseball in that category (min. 50 IP). Given the totality of his work last season I’m betting on a strong rebound after last year’s dismal showing that, quite simply, makes no logical sense.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: The Arms Race

In today’s article I’ll expound upon a rather interesting comparison between setup men. I’ll also discuss another reliever looking for a home, an all-time great who might retire, and the hottest arm on the free agent market if you decide that based upon the numbers of teams that want to sign him to a deal.

Daniel Bard vs. Joba Chamberlain: The perception is that the Red Sox righty reliever is a much better option in 2011. However, is that really the case? Let’s compare each hard throwing setup man to the other based on 2010 numbers.

Bard:1-2, 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Joba: 3-4, 4.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Clearly Bard was the better pitcher last season, and it wasn’t even close. Or was it?

Bard: 9.16 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 2.53 K/BB, 1.23 GB/FB
Joba: 9.67 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 3.50 K/BB, 1.22 GB/FB

Admit it – you almost fell out of your chair when you saw those three numbers, didn’t you? That’s right, Joba had a better K-rate, walked fewer batters, and had a better K/BB ratio. Given that their GB/FB ratios were virtually identical, if that was the only data you had at your fingertips you would say that Joba was the better pitcher, and it wouldn’t even be a tough call. So how in the world were his ERA and WHIP so much worse than Bard’s marks last year? I think I have a rather simple answer.

Bard: .225 BABIP, 15.4 LD-rate
Joba: .343 BABIP, 17.2 LD-rate

Yahtzee. Bard’s BABIP was artificially low while Joba’s was artificially high. That’s obviously a huge piece of this puzzle. We can make the argument that both hurlers also had artificially low line drive marks, but clearly the difference between the LD-rate and the BABIP mark was totally nuts for Bars. The big league average is 20 and .300, yet somehow Chamberlain flew past that to an obnoxious .343 BABIP even though his LD-rate was terrific. It just doesn’t make much sense. If both hurlers maintain their ’10 line drive rate in ’11, you would expect Bard to have a BABIP mark of about .270 and Joba to have a mark of about .290. If the gap does close to .020 points instead of last years .118 spread, you can bet the fantasy performance of both hurlers will be pretty darn close. Oh, and don’t forget that the Red Sox added reliever Bobby Jenks to their bullpen which might mean that Bard wouldn’t be the first choice to close if something were to happen to Jonathan Papelbon. As for the Yankees situation, do you have any doubt that Joba would get the call in the 9th inning if Mariano Rivera went down?

Octavio Dotel: He has certainly seen better days, but the guy still throws hard and knows how to post strikeouts. In fact, his 10.55 K/9 mark in 2010 was his fourth straight year in double digits and just slightly below his career 10.95 mark. Of course, walks are always a concern, more than four per nine in his career, and they were even above that poor mark up at 4.50 last year. Still, when looking for a power arm on the cheap, he is one of the best bets still on the market, so you can understand why he has been linked to the Rays, Blue Jays and Pirates.

Andy Pettitte: It really is starting to sound like Pettitte may indeed hang up his spikes. According to Buster Olney, Pettitte isn’t preparing as he normally would with his offseason training regimen. Even if he were to sign a deal with the Yankees, at this point he’d be weeks behind where he would normally be at physically. The Yankees have to be feeling like that kid who knows he was bad and is somehow holding out hope that Santa will overlook that fact and still bring him a gift on Christmas. As of now, here is the Yankees rotation: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes and ??? They are nearly to the point of desperation with the only legitimate internal option apparently being Ivan Nova (I’m not buying Sergio Mitre). It’s not a good situation to be in. What is that old say, pitching wins championships? If that is the case, the Yankees are in serious trouble.

Brandon Webb: Last night there was a mystery team added to the mix (Ala the Phillies with the Cliff Lee negotiations). Who is that mystery team? We don’t know other than the club is from the NL Central and that it isn’t the Reds or Brewers. Since everyone already knows the Cubs are interested, that would seem to mean that either the Cardinals, Pirates or Astros are in the mix. Come Wednesday, we now have a second mystery team in the mix according to Webb’s agent Jonathan Maurer. Has there been this much interest in a broken down asset since the housing market crash?

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Still Simmering

The pull of Christmas continues to strengthen with each passing day as it becomes harder and harder to actually focus on your tasks at work (don’t tell me you don’t feel it’s pull). That doesn’t mean that the world of baseball is off for the holidays. In fact, it’s just the opposite as there are quite a few pertinent news stories making the rounds on this day.

Adrian Beltre: Backed by the evil Scott Boras, Beltre is apparently turning his nose up slightly at the 5-year, $70 million deal the Angels have extended the third baseman. Why? Because he’d like a sixth year of course. Beltre is a consistent run producer who also plays fine defense, but he isn’t a .300 hitting 30 homer guy, so he should be plenty happy with what the Angels are offering, especially since there doesn’t appear to be another team willing to offer that much money. Beltre would also be wise to realize that he will 37 years old at the end of a five year deal, so I don’t know how many organizations are going to be clamoring to give him a sixth season when he will be 38 years old. The Angels are pretty desperate to add him after losing Hideki Matsui to free agency and losing out on guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but let’s hope they do the smart thing and hold fast on their current offer which is, in my opinion, too high already.

LATE ADDITION: Seems like the Angels came to the same conclusion that I did. With the ink barely dry on this article, a report surfaced in the Los Angeles Times that the Angels have withdrawn their offer to Beltre (Angels Pull Offer). Seems like they called Scott Boras’ bluff and have flat out dared him to find another team willing to give his client $70 million. Who will blink first?

David Freese: A total wild card this season since he is coming off surgeries to both ankles. Freese is said to be progressing well, but he still hasn’t even been cleared to run yet. He has hit .299 in 271 big league at-bats, but at this point he should be restricted to merely being a late round flier in NL-only leagues.

Brett Gardner: The fleet of foot outfielder had offseason surgery on his wrist, and like Freese, everything is heading in the right direction with his recovery and Gardner expects to be 100 percent by Spring Training. (Brett said he was only a couple of weeks behind his “normal” offseason workout schedule). While somewhat overlooked because of the juggernaut around him, Gardner had a hell of a fantasy season last year which included being one of just three players in baseball who stole 45 bases, knocked in 45 runs, and scored at least 95 times (the others were Juan Pierre and Carl Crawford). Depending on what region of the country you live in, Gardner might be a relative bargain on draft day, especially if he was able to secure a spot at the top of the Yankees’ lineup.

Scott Podsednik: The Angels missed out on their top offseason target when Carl Crawford signed with the Red Sox. So their reaction is to try and sign Scott Podsednik? Pods can still motor, he had 35 steals last season while hitting .297, but come on now. He’s 35 years old and he shouldn’t be anything more than a fourth outfield option on an upper division club. He’s really nothing more than a replacement level player at this point of his career, even with the gaudy steal total. That doesn’t mean he has no fantasy value, the guy does have 65 thefts the past two years while hitting .300, and he could score a bunch of runs if he was signed by the Angels and inserted at the top of their run and gun batting order. All I’m saying is that he really isn’t that valuable a real world player.

David Price: I had a debate at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account this week about why I wouldn’t have David Price ranked in my top-10 starting pitchers this season. To me the answer is simple – he doesn’t belong there. I know he was second in the AL in wins (19) and third in ERA (2.72), but his peripheral numbers simply don’t support that level of performance. (1) His walk rate of 3.41 per nine was worse than the big league average (3.28). He did offset that fact a bit with his solid 8.11 K/9 mark, but his resulting 2.38 K/BB ratio is only barely better than the 2010 big league average of 2.17. (2) Price posted a 1.10 GB/FB ratio which was, again, big league average. It also wasn’t any different from his 1.05 mark of 2009 when he posted a 4.42 ERA. (3) Price had a left on base percentage of 78.5 percent in ’10. Given that the big league average is 70 percent, that’s a pretty darn high total (to compare Price with another great lefty, Cliff Lee’s mark was 67.9 percent). It’s almost impossible to posit another run at 80 percent from Price. (4) His ERA was lucky. There, I said it. Price’s FIP mark was 3.42, well above his raw ERA mark of 2.72. In addition, his DIPS ERA was 3.55 while his Component ERA was 2.92. You don’t have to know how those numbers are computed to understand that all three of those measures point to his actual ERA of 2.72 being far too low based on his overall level of performance. Price will not fail, he is too talented for that, and his one batter improvement in his K/9 rate last season is exciting, but I would be pretty shocked if he was able to once again keep his ERA under 3.00 this season, and few pitchers win 19 games in back-to-back seasons (Adam Wainwright and CC Sabathia are the only two hurlers that have done it the past two years).

Brandon Webb: The injured righty continues to receive lots of love from teams around the league that are hoping to strike it rich with the former ace. Teams that appears to be heavily in on Webb include the Cubs, Nationals and Rangers, though at one point or another he has been linked to about half the teams in baseball. I know he was a star from 2005-08, but the guy had major shoulder surgery, looked terrible late in the year according to some scouting reports, and he has thrown all of four innings the past two seasons. Hopefully everyone learned from the Ben Sheets debacle of last season (1-year, $10 million for 20 starts) that Webb’s contract should be something like 90 percent incentive driven.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Signings Galore

Its been another wild and wooly day in the world of baseball as a whole handful of fantasy relevant players have decided where they will play in 2011.

Edwin Encarnacion: Well look at that. After casting EE adrift because they didn’t want to overpay him (he was picked up off waivers by the Athletics who subsequently decided not to offer him a contract as he was non-tendered), the Blue Jays brought Encarnacion back into the fold. Paid $4.75 million last season, Encarnacion signed a one year deal for $2.5 million with a club option of $3.5 million for 2012. You might not be aware, but Edwin hit 21 homers last season which is more than Scott Rolen (20), Kevin Youkilis (19), Casey Blake (17) and Kevin Kouzmanoff (16) despite the fact that he had just 332 at-bats. A poor third basemen, it appears that the current plan is for Edwin to see some time at third, first and DH this season, potentially splitting time with Adam Lind at 1B/DH. For more of the Encarnacion love fest make sure you read Jason Collette’s Free Agent Forecast: E5 where he expounds about his unhealthy man-crush on the free swinging infielder (it’s kind of creepy how much Jason digs Edwin… I’m just saying Jason).

Bobby Jenks: Buster Olney is reporting that the Red Sox and former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks have agreed to a 2-year deal for $12 million. This signing is a bit odd since the Red Sox already have young flame thrower Daniel Bard, not to mention closer Jonathan Papelbon. It’s pure speculation at this point, but why would the BoSox bother to bring in Jenks to pitch the 7th inning? The point is, they wouldn’t. This leads to the obvious – perhaps the Red Sox are going to rid themselves of Papelbon. Problem is, Jonathan is coming off his worst season since becoming the closer, and he will likely make upwards of $11 million or more through arbitration. Who wants to take on a slumping closer who will make more than $11 million, especially when he will become a free agent after the 2011 season (for more on Papelbon see Around the Horn: Offseason Moves)? Good question. As for Jenks, he is coming off a career worst 4.44 ERA and a five year low of 27 saves, but he actually pitched very, very well. In addition to a five year best with a K/9 rate of 10.42, Jenks also managed the best GB/FB ratio of his career at a superb 2.80. If he combines those two numbers again in 2011, his ERA should fall by at least a run if not back into the 2′s.

Russell Martin: I wrote about Martin’s decision to sign a one year deal with the Yankees in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker. Now comes word that during his physical it was determined that he will need minor knee surgery. The Yankees still signed him to the contract with this knowledge, so you have to think the issue is relatively minor, but it can’t make you feel good about Martin’s 2011 outlook given that he is coming off of two mediocre seasons (at best) and a fractured hip. He’s dropping down my draft list.

Magglio Ordonez: Jon Heyman is reporting that Mags will return to the Tigers on a 1-year deal for a rather large $10 million. The Tigers likely had to overpay a bit since they only wanted to do a one year deal with a guy coming back from ankle surgery. Ordonez has been working out and is said to already be close to 100 percent healthy. For more on Ordonez and his prospects for the upcoming season check out Around the Horn: Offseason Moves.

Josh Willingham: Buster Olney is reporting that Willingham will be dealt to the Athletics in exchange for two players (one who has major league experience). I have to hand it to the A’s, they are doing some nice things. Not only have they added two arms to what was potentially the best staff in the AL last year with Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy, they have also augmented the offense by adding Hidkei Matsui, David DeJesus and now Willingham (you can read more about the addition of Harden in Hot Stove: Pitchers Dominate the News and more about Matsui in the link above in the Martin writeup). Willingham missed the end of 2010 because of knee surgery, and he will be a free agent after the coming campaign, but the guy can hit. Over the past five years Josh has averaged 20 homers and 66 RBI a season despite an average of just 434 at-bats a year. It is a concern that Oakland’s home park doesn’t reward power hitters, and that Willingham hasn’t had even 430 at-bats in any of the last three seasons, but he does add some needed thump to a lineup whose biggest home run hitter in 2010 was Kevin Kouzmanoff with 16.

By Ray Flowers