SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers

Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.

* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

The league average in 2011 was 0.45.

Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.

0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.

0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.

0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.

0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.

0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.

0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.

0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.

0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.

0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.

0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.

0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.

0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.

Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.

1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.

1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.

1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.

1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.

1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.

0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.

0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.

0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.

0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.

0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.

0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.

0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).

0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.

0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.

0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Knowing When to Walk Away

What do you do when, seemingly at the pinnacle of your profession, you look around and realize that you are missing out on time with your family because of your job? If you had the ability to financially support yourself and your kin, wouldn’t you do something different? One major league ballplayer who is contemplating doing just that is discussed below. I’ll also touch on a couple of injured players, as well as a guy whose name is a bit confusing to me.

No one seems to believe him, but Mark Buehrle continues to maintain that he will retire at the end of next season at just 32 years of age. “Everybody in here is calling B.S. on it,” Buehrle said. “And it could be. Those two years could fly by and I could say I’m not ready to retire. But today? I don’t see myself playing past this contract.” Buehrle has said this before, in fact he dropped the bombshell in the Chicago Tribune in spring training this season. Buehrle has two kids that he wants to spend more time with, and since they live in Arizona with his wife, there just isn’t enough time for him to spend with his family. “Look, I’m having fun. It’s not like I want to quit. If I didn’t have a family, I’d play until I was 60, or until they kicked me out. I just don’t want to miss my kids growing up.” Given the gazillions of dollars these guys make some are always surprised when guys walk away, but Mark will have made more than $50 million by the end of next season. I don’t know about where you live, but that will buy a whole lot of water wings and swimming lessons where I live.

Ryan Dempster apparently has a broken right big toe. As a result, he was placed on the DL today. No word yet on how long he will be out of action, or for that matter exactly how the injury occurred. Being that it’s the foot that he “pushes” off the rubber with, I’ve got to think that we are looking at more than two weeks here, but I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night so I could certainly be wrong. Dempster heads to the DL with a 5-5 record, 4.09 ERA and a K/9 mark of 7.58, and don’t say you are disappointed with that effort after last years 17-6 mark with a 2.96 ERA, because if you do feel that way you just were listening to us when we told you a regression was coming.

Mark DeRosa, aka the “Savior” if you ask some people in St. Louis, has been placed on the DL due to his wrist injury. Having already missed a week of action, and with the All-Star break approaching, it only made sense for the team to put him on the DL (retroactive to July 1st). I’ve said it before, but let me repeat a few salient facts with the guy. (1) DeRosa owns a career .277 batting average and has never hit .300 in a season (currently .261). (2) DeRosa has one season in his career with more than 13 home runs (21 in ’08, he has 13 this season). (3) DeRosa has one season of more than 75 RBI (87 last season, 50 thus far this year). I’m not saying DeRosa isn’t a valuable bat, he certainly is, but at the same time for a guy who has appeared in 12 major league seasons and has only once hit more than 20 home runs or produced more than 75 RBI there is likely too much pressure being placed upon the 34 year olds shoulders. He isn’t a difference maker.

Jose Reyes suffered yet another setback in his attempt to return to the field. Reyes had a cortisone shot into his injured right hamstring, and I don’t know about you but that doesn’t sound very fun to me (I had one in my elbow back when I played, and believe me when I tell you that no one feels too comfortable when they see a doctor walking at them with a needle that is five inches long). This latest treatment seems to signal that Reyes won’t be back for at least another couple of weeks as he will likely have to shut everything down for a few days to let the effects of the shot set in. My best guess? I’m not looking for Reyes until the first week of August.

The Rex Brothers were signed by the Rockies today. Oops, that is only one guy isn’t it? The lefty who has a whopping 132 Ks in 94 innings for the University of Lipscomb this past season, may end up using his hard slider and mid 90′s heater out of the bullpen instead of the rotation for the Rocks as he lacks a true off-speed pitch (one of the reasons he might be shifted to the pen).

By Ray Flowers