Valentine’s Day Special

If you forgot to look at a calendar consider this your public service announcement for the day. It’s Valentine’s Day moron. Go out and get your special someone something special. It doesn’t have to be a diamond ring – though I’m sure those are welcomed – it just has to be something that shows you care. A box of candy (one that doesn’t look like you bought it at the convenient store on the corner would be nice). A stuffed teddy bear like the one above. Hell, if all of that isn’t happening make a card. Nothing says I care like a handmade card. Don’t worry if it looks like it was done by a seven year old. This is one time that it will seem adorable even if you have no artistic talent (for those of you who are interested in the holiday, the History Channel has a nice little section of videos discussing the day).

Before I go and get all soft on you all, and yes I have a special day about to be set in motion (my lady planned an evening for me that is a total surprise. Hopefully I haven’t jinxed it by mentioning it here in this piece), let’s get back to the world of baseball which is the real reason you came to BaseballGuys.com today, not to read my mushy thoughts on the holiday.

Grant Balfour will likely miss 4-6 weeks as he went under the knife on Thursday for a knee issue. The club hopes he will be able to return in time for Opening Day, but that’s obviously an open ended question at this point. Ryan Cook would seem most likely to take over given that he filled the role with aplomb last season in the first half. Some may have forgotten with Cook that he had 14 saves, 21 holds, a 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.82 K/9 mark in 2012. That’s an elite line folks. Some will mention Sean Doolittle as a possible closing option, but the guy literally has less than 75 innings pitched in his career (he’s a converted hitter). He’s got a huge K arm, 11.41 per nine last year, and he walked only 2.09 per nine, but he’s just so inexperienced and really only has one solid pitch at the moment (he threw his fastball 87 percent of the time in ’12).

Trevor Cahill lost 10-15 lbs over the winter. Question. How does Cahill not know how much weight he lost? Did he never weigh himself before (I mean, can he see his toes now or what)? There’s obviously a benefit to getting in better shape. It should take some pressure of Cahill’s legs and give him a bit more oomph at the end of the season. Cahill pushed his K-rate to 7.02 per nine last year, a career best, and more than a batter above his career rate. If he holds on to those gains, and is able to maintain his out of this world 2.69 GB/FB ratio from last season, that ERA (3.78) and WHIP (1.29) could certainly come down.

For those of you looking for some sexy Valentine’s outfits…

Rich Harden threw Wednesday and said that his surgically repaired shoulder felt pretty good. “I’m hoping it’ll feel the same when I start facing hitters. I threw mostly fastballs because I’m trying to get that feel back.” The Twins don’t know exactly yet if Harden would fit best in the bullpen or at the back-end of the rotation, but I would bet that if he’s healthy he’ll be able to get batters out. For his career Harden has struck out 949 batters in 928.1 innings.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Kyle Lohse is still looking for a team as clubs are still a bit unsure about whether giving him all that cash, and giving up a first round draft pick as compensation is worth it. For more on Lohse see his Player Profile.

Adam Wainwright had a 3.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP last season, solid numbers indeed but off the pace he set for himself before he had Tommy John surgery. I’m here to tell ya though, he pitched much better than it seemed. Take a look at his xFIP for a quick snapshot of how he performed: 3.32 in 2009, 3.02 in 2010, Tommy John surgery in 2011, 3.23 in 2012. His 8.34 K/9 mark is a five year best, and his 3.54 K/BB ratio was better than his 3.02 career mark. Toss in a career best 1.93 GB/FB ratio (career 1.57), and we have a guy who is primed for a huge season in 2013.

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Rookies, Former Disappointments an a CL

Rookie disappointments, players trying to finally catch their groove, and a closer who doesn’t get the respect that he is due highlight today’s article.

John Axford is the Brewers closer. Period. I know everyone got all nervous when Francisco Rodriguez was brought into town, but the Brew Crew has done the right thing and left Axford alone as the arm working the 9th. K-Rod has done very well in a setup role with a 2.45 ERA and 15 Ks in 11 innings since joining the club, but it’s Axford who deserves all the accolades. Not only is he 33 for 35 in saves, the last time he blew a chance was April 18th as he’s racked up 64 Ks in 54.1 innings. He’s as good as there is at shutting down an opponent.

Chris Davis is one of my favorite late round gambles each year. To this point, he’s done little at the big league level to warrant the love, but perhaps things will change now that he is in Baltimore. Apparently over a scare with his shoulder, Davis appears slated to see daily playing time in the Orioles’ lineup. Davis hit .368 with 24 homers and 66 RBI in just 48 games at Triple-A this year, and though he would be lucky to get within a hundred points of that batting average, the power is legit. After all, he has averaged 24 homers per 500 at-bats during his big league career (43 homers in 903 at-bats).

Conor Jackson’s career was at a crossroads coming into this season. A first round pick in 2003, his last couple of seasons had been ruined by ill health. He started out slowly this year, and with the A’s logjam at first and in the outfield he just wasn’t seeing regular playing time. He’s slowly started to come around though as he hit .292 in July and .309 over his last 21 games. He still isn’t flashing much power with only four homers in 299 at-bats, but the sweet stroke is finally back.

Rich Harden is always one pitch, heck one step, from the trainer’s table. It took him forever to get on the field this year, but once out there he has performed very well. Harden may have an elevated 4.07 ERA for the Athletics but he has 45 Ks in 42 innings, is sporting a 3.00 K/BB ratio, and his WHIP (1.17) is a rather impressive total for a hurler in the AL. He’s only lasted more than six innings twice in seven outings, but he’s looked pretty much like his old self when on the bump.

Rookie Report

Yonder Alonso – The guy has no position, he recently embarrassed himself in the outfield, and he’s not going to supplant Joey Votto at first base any time soon. Still, the kid can hit and he’s gone 8-for-17 (.471) this year to up his career mark to .304 in 46 at-bats in the bigs.

Desmond Jennings – He’s looked every bit the Carl Crawford clone in 17 games hitting .328 with 11 RBI, 11 runs scored and eight steals. He has been marvelous.

Mike Moustakas – He’s hitting .193 with one homer through 171 at-bats, and his OPS is .497. The poor average is a head scratchier but one homer in 171 at-bats? That’s just vexing.

By Ray Flowers

Readers Probes: Ogando and Twins’ Pen

photo © 2011 Mike LaChance | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m doing something today that I never do. I’m going to address two the questions from the COMMENTS section in an article today because I thought the conversation would be beneficial to all. I’ll directly quote the response of the readers, and then give my thoughts.

Yesterday in the July 5th Mailbag, I gave a less than glowing review of my outlook with Alexi Ogando. Reader Tom gave a differing viewpoint.

“As always, loved the piece. I just wanted to play devil’s advocate with Ogando for a moment with you, though. There are 2 main areas of worry: durability and performance.

With durability, we wonder about the huge jump in innings and getting tired as the season progresses. We’ve seen him tire lately, but the staff is aware and will rest him until July 19th (missing one start). Considering he’s a RP conversion, it might help to look at his teammate C.J. Wilson, with whom they did the same thing last year. Wilson’s previous high in innings was 73.2, but they had him finish with 228 last year (including playoffs). Did C.J. tire? Actually, he got better as the year progressed until September hit. Was it tiring or just regression from his really good numbers? Also, with C.J. (a RP convert), his K-rate was only mid 6′s through July, but then saw a large uptick into the end of year. We could be seeing the same thing with Ogando as well. He started throwing his slider more and bam…season high K’s. He could keep the K-rate at or above 8 as long as he throws the slider approximately 30 percent of the time or more.

Ogando’s innings [high was] about 71 (including minors), so about the same as Wilson had. A big difference between them is that Ogando has much better control. Because of that, he has many less stressful innings and likewise receives less wear and tear on the arm. It isn’t so much about innings as it is a) total pitches and more importantly b) innings with stressful pitch numbers (the innings where 30+ pitches are thrown). As far as performance goes, yes he will see a correction in BABIP. The reason why it is lower at the moment is because of the contact he induces (weak off the bat). That is why his BABIP against line drives and flies is better than league avg and that his HR/9 is better. Will it stay at .247 (present), no. But it is possible for it to remain in the .280′s (Wilson career .289). Also consider that the league-wide BABIP is about .290 this year vs historically always being .300. Also consider that since the beginning of June, Ogando has carried a .310 BABIP and 57 LOB percent…while his ERA/WHIP have been 3.95/1.28. This includes arguably the roughest stretch in performance of his career.

Is it crazy to think this is just a little regression to the mean and nothing more (considering Ogando carries a career 2.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP)? And if this is the rough stretch (and still a decent pitcher), I wonder how he’ll be with some rest, more sliders, and a better idea of how to pitch as he gains experience. I’m not willing to say he is elite, but he is certainly up there. And just think, Tim Lincecum is going through a rough stretch as well. Over the last 30 days, he is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. But we’re not going to write him off. Considering that Ogando’s rough patch isn’t that bad and other than those few games, he was amazing…maybe we should give him the benefit of the doubt. There is precedent with his own teammate as recent as last year that this could hold up over a full season. Maybe lightning does strike twice.”
– TOM

Tom – No one ever brings it more in their analysis here than you do. I applaud the effort you put in, must have taken  you a good half hour or more to break down everything with Ogando. Great work – you’re a model for everyone that just writes ‘nuh uh’ in their responses.

I will not dispute the main factual arguments you presented, but I will question the comparison that you drew. It’s easy to compare Ogando to Wilson in that both are converted relievers for the Rangers, but it’s pretty darn hard to directly compare the two. First, Wilson had trained for years in America and had been a big league pitcher for years. Even if his innings total was low, you have to think he was better trained, or shall we say prepared, than Ogando. Second, they are different types of pitchers. Ogando’s GB/FB rate is 0.95 over his two seasons while Wilson’s mark is 1.67. That’s a massive difference that clearly swings things in Wilson’s favor. Third, let’s take a look at your pitch contention. This season Ogando has thrown an average of 3.93 pitches per plate appearances and 15.9 pitches per inning. Last season, during Wilson’s big innings pitched bump, he tossed 4.05 pitches per plate appearance and 16.9 pitches per inning. I’m not measuring “stress” at all with those numbers, but those numbers are pretty close (Wilson’s been better this year at 3.85 and 15.8). Fourth, you can’t really compare two pitchers to one another. You can look at historical averages and draw come basic conclusions (.290-300 BABIP for a league average for example), but that doesn’t mean that Ogando will be in that range (as you already know) – he could end up setting a baseline above, or more likely, below it.

The problem with Ogando is that we simply do not know what to expect. Given traditional measures of analysis and historical trends, the pendulum would have to favor me in this argument. Does this mean I will be “right” about Ogando? I wouldn’t have written what I did if I didn’t believe it, but that doesn’t mean I’m always going to be right.

“Ray, is Glen Perkins a save candidate now with another save Tuesday for the Twins? Need to pick up a pitcher, either the injury prone Rich Harden or Perkins? Thanks.”
– JIM

Jim – The Twins closing situation is up in the air. Matt Capps is struggling, he will not be given a saves chance today if one arises, and even if he rights the ship he could be traded at some point (I touched on this situation yesterday in the Mailbag piece referenced above).

Joe Nathan is improving as he’s looked good since he returned from the DL with four straight scoreless outings in which he hasn’t allowed a single batter to reach base via a walk while allowing only one hit. The Twins obviously are looking at returning him to the 9th inning, but is he ready to assume that role right now?

Perkins has two saves in 112 career games. He’s also left handed, and many managers prefer to avoid port siders in the 9th because of matchups, but here’s the biggest issue – he’s never been this good before.(1) His K/9 is up over four full batters. I know he is working out of the bullpen right now versus spending all his time starting, but can he really go from a five per nine type of hurler to a guy with more than a K per inning? Count me doubtful there. (2) He has a 4 year low in his walk rate (nearly a full batter above his normal rate). (3) In 30.1 innings he hasn’t allowed a single home run (his career rate is 1.16 per nine). There’s just no way that I can look at him and trust him to be a closer, and I don’t think the Twins will see is differently. I’m not saying he wont get a few looks in the short term, I think he might, but he’s not likely to have long term success in that role with his skill set and current level of performance which is so drastically out of line with his previous five seasons in the big leagues.

Do I suggest adding Perkins or Harden? Depends on your need (does your team lack for relief or starting pitching?). Harden has great skills, but he has played this game with us all before. Just when we buy that he is “back,” injury strikes. If you need save help add Perkins. Even if he picks up only a few it might help you move up the standings a spot or two. I just don’t trust Harden’s being able to take the ball every five days the rest of the way. If it doesn’t work out with Perkins, you should still be able to find starting help on the waiver-wire.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June30, 2011

(1) Mark Ellis now a Rockie. How does that effect NL-only leagues?

(2) Ty Wigginton on fire for the Rockies.

(3) Josh Johnson shoulder update.

(4) Derek Jeter hopes to return Monday from calf injury.

(5) Erik Bedard to DL, Rich Harden off it.

(6) Chris Davis to get shot with Rangers?

PS – Congratulations to Crissy who won the DraftStreet.com competition last night.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan.21, 2011

(1) The FSTA Convention in Las Vegas.

(2) Where will Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero and Johnny Damon end up?

(3) The Athletics team wide makeover is impressive. Here is an additionl report on their arms in A’s Astounding Bullpen.

(4) The Yankees signed Andruw Jones to a 1-year deal.

(5) Nate McLouth to be given shot to return to starting in CF.

You can read more about the Jones and McLouth news in MLB News and Notes.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Pitchers Dominate the News

Wednesday has been a day filled with plenty of news with most of it focused on the men who take the hill. There’s also a bit in here at the end about that rich guy who will patrol the outfield for the Nationals for those of you looking for a hitting fix.

Rich Harden: The flame throwing righty has reportedly agreed to a one year deal for $1.5 million to return to the club that he began his major league career with – the Athletics (there are another $1.5 million available in incentives). The deal will not become official for a couple of days yet as Harden still has to pass a physical – clearly not a given at this point. Early reports suggest that the A’s are looking at Harden as a bullpen option more than a challenger for a starting role, but you have to think they might be tempted to give him a shot at the 5th starters role. Regardless of where he pitches he is a wild card. Coming off a career worst 5.58 ERA and 7.34 K/9 marks – this guy owns career marks of 3.63 and 9.13 – Harden will be the quintessential late game flier. I’ll tell you this. Even with his average fastball sitting at just 90.5 mph last season, I wouldn’t want to face this guy coming out of the pen. Can you imagine batters trying to get their bats on that heater and his amazingly sinking change up? That sounds like a recipe for success if you ask me.

Cliff Lee Update: The final details of his contract are in. The Phillies will be paying the 32 year old lefty $120 million over five years. There is also a vesting option for $27.5 million (if he doesn’t reach the needed incentives in the deal, he would pickup a $12.5 million buyout meaning the deal comes to at least $135 million over the course of six years). A couple of obvious questions that need to be answered.

Does this signing make the Phillies better? Are you on crack? Of course it does. It not only does that, it makes them World Series favorites.

Does this deal give the Phillies the best starting rotation in baseball? Without a doubt it does.

Was this a smart deal for the team to enter into? This is a serious question that could play out very badly for the Phillies in the long run.

(1) If history is a guide, this was a terrible decision. This was the sixth $100+ million deal ever awarded to a pitcher. Here are the first five with a grade.

CC Sabathia (7 years, $161 million): So far, so good. An incomplete “A.”

Johan Santana (6 years, $135): He was great for one year and then solid in two. He had shoulder surgery and will likely miss half the year though in 201. An incomplete “B-” that grade could get much, much worse.

Barry Zito (7 years, $126 million): He’s stayed healthy and given the team innings. But all you need to know about his value is the fact that he was left off the playoff roster. An incomplete “D+”

Mike Hampton (8 years, $121 million): In a word – awful. “F.”

Kevin Brown (7 years, $105 million): Continually injured, he pitched well when healthy but for the duration of the deal he was merely average. “C-.”

(2) Does it make any sense to give a pitcher a deal that is this long when he is 32 years old? What this deal leads to is that at 35, 36 and 37 years of age Lee will be making $25 million a year. When he is 38 he will make either $12.5 or $27.5 million (depending on whether or not his option is picked up). If you think that sounds like a good idea I bet you are also the fella who would trade Chase Utley for Aaron Hill if he hit .220 in April.

The bottom line is that this signing gives the Phillies a magnificent chance to win the World Series in 2011, but they could pay a dear price in the long run for that short-term success.

Pitchers on the Market: Fausto Carmona, Zack Greinke and Carlos Zambrano

Greinke will be the most costly to acquire of this trio, and I touched on his situation a couple of days ago in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

Carmona is being viewed by some clubs as a cheaper fall back option if they aren’t able to get Greinke in a deal. Everyone knows that Carmona is nowhere near as impressive as Greinke, but he also won’t cost near as much to pick up. No matter where he ends up, Fausto just isn’t a very good fantasy option. While he throws an exploding sinker that can lead to wonderful outings, he is also a disaster when it comes to throwing strikes. I’ll give the guy some credit, he did knock his BB/9 mark down to a solid 3.08 last year, but he owns a 3.67 career rate and was over five per nine in 2008 and 2009. Carmona is also far from a strikeout option. In fact, despite throwing 210.1 innings last season, his total of 124 Ks was less than the totals of guys like Kevin Millwood (132) and Kyle Davies (126).

Zambrano is a very intriguing option. The most volcanic personality in the game, Big Z is as capable of throwing a no-hitter as he is likely to vent his childhood frustrations on an unsuspecting Gatorade cooler. The guy is just a flat out mess. At the same time, he rebounded from banishment in late June to allow two or fewer earned runs in each of his last 14 appearances during which time he posted a stellar 1.58 ERA. It likely wouldn’t take a hell of a lot to pry him from the Cubs given that he is due $17.85 million in 2011, $18 million in 2012 and $19.25 million on an option. Clearly if the Cubs want to move him to another club they are going to have to open their wallets big time and pay a large portion of that coin.

Jayson Werth: He was introduced officially at a press conference today, and manager Jim Riggleman mentioned that Werth might be asked to play center field against left-handed pitching. That means a couple of things. First, Nyjer Morgan and Roger Bernadina better not buy a house because they aren’t in the club’s daily plans. Second, Michael Morse could end up getting a lot more playing time than some people think in right field. Don’t overlook Morse. In 618 career at-bats he has hit .291 with 21 homers, 88 RBI and 73 runs scored. He could be a wonderful NL-only option this season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 20, 2010

(1) Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann to return next week.

(2) Rich Harden to start on Monday for Rangers.

(3) Conor Jackson back on DL.

(4) Is Jason Bay (concussion) done for the year?

(5) Cody Ross claimed off waivers.

(6) Ronny Paulino reportedly suspended 50 games.

(7) Carlos Gonzalez (knee) hopes to avoid DL.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 10, 2010

(1) Ryan Braun’s wrist an issue.

(2) The Mike Gonzalez situation explained.

(3) Jose Guillen on NL West contenders minds.

(4) Brandon Morrow to have next start moved back until Tuesday as I predicted would happen on Monday in Morrow Makes History – Sort Of.

(5) Mike Leake could lose starting spot to Homer Bailey.

(6) Rich Harden to have start pushed back at least until Sunday.

(7) Gil Meche hopes to return to bullpen this season.

(8) Nyjer Morgan’s hip is an issue.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 23, 2010

(1) David DeJesus out for the year with injured thumb.

(2) It’s true, Brian Roberts is back.

(3) Carl Crawford returns to the starting lineup.

(4) Justin Masterson could be shut down in September.

(5) Rangers could get Rich Harden and Derek Holland back soon.

(6) J.A. Happ to return to Phillies because of injury to Jamie Moyer.

(7) The Royals have recalled Alex Gordon. Should you care? Read Five Questions to find out (there is also more in that piece about Roberts return and what to do with Happ).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 18, 2010

(1) Troy Tulowitzki to miss 6-8 with broken wrist. Carlos Gonzalez also out on Friday.

(2) Jake Peavy has fluid, will still pitch on Saturday.

(3) Rich Harden has shot to accelerate healing process.

(4) Derek Holland tweaks knee while doing rehab work for shoulder.

(5) Mark Reynolds out of lineup, injured and struggling (13 Ks in 15 ABs).

(6) Alex Rodriguez back at third, Jorge Posada should be able to catch in interleague play

(7) Returning on Friday from injury- Jason Bay, Orlando Hudson.

By Ray Flowers