Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.11

Another week, another seven days of frustration. Injuries continue to pound my teams, and a lack of movement in the trade market is starting to get to me now (experts are very hard to deal with. I must have send out 25 trade offers the past week – only one was accepted though there might be an AL LABR deal in the works for next week).

FOR MORE ON COLE, CINGRANI & MYERS SEE- Rounding the Bases: Cole, Cingrani & Myers.

FOR MY THOUGHTS ON PUIG LISTEN HERE.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): Yes, my team has woefully underperformed, but I keep fighting the good fight. This weeks moves… I dropped Eric Young who continues to get playing time but just isn’t performing. I tried to get Mr. Blanks but was greatly outspent (my bid was $7). So, I ended up with two start Jacob Turner ($2) to bolster my staff. I also added Eric Stults to help out the staff for $5 as I released Joe Smith. Stults has posted a 3.53 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the year, and if you haven’t noticed he’s been on a hell of a run the last three weeks – 2.54 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 21 Ks versus two walks over 28.1 innings.
Notable bids: Kyle Blanks ($21), Gerrit Cole ($9), Hector Santiago ($5), Travis Hafner ($3).

LABR (12 team, AL-only): Didn’t make a single move this week. I keep trying to trade Jacoby Ellsbury for an elite arm, or Nate McLouth for an established one, but I’m having a hard time finding a taker. I’m in third place overall after a second place finish last year, so I’m hungry, but finding that right fit, with the experts, is always tough (hopefully Michael Pineda, who is on my reserve list, will come through). I lead the league with 91 steals, and according to Larry Schechter I’m on pace to set an all-time record for steals (no one else is within 39 steals). Gotta make a move.
Notable bids: Dallas Keuchel ($3), Pedro Ciriaco ($3), Ryan Flaherty ($3), Jose Alvarez ($3)

FSTA (13 team mixed): Fricken Hanley Ramirez just can’t get over the hump, and it’s killing me. I went $221 for Yasiel Puig, an aggressive bid for me, but I was more than doubled there. I was outbid on Kyle Blanks ($37). I ended up with Daniel Descalso ($11) who qualifies at second, short and third base. He’s hitting .413 with 14 RBIs and 12 runs scored the past 19 games. Jared Burton was cast adrift. I also added Dylan Axelrod ($7) at the cost of Edinson Volquez. Dylan has two starts against the Blue Jays and Astros.
Notable bids: Yasiel Puig ($521), Anthony Rendon ($103), Kyle Blanks ($85), Kyle Lohse ($21), Chad Gaudin ($17).

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): Ubaldo Jimenez ($1) is in, Edinson Volquez is out. Why do I want to punch myself in the face? J.J. Putz, the still injured one, disappears for David Robertson an elite setup arm who could dominate as a closer if anything happened to 430 year old Mariano Rivera. The big move of the week was my $4 add of… Eric Hosmer (Will Venable went bye-bye). Hosmer is hitting .367 in June, but he has only one bomb on the year. Still, he’s got the talent to go on a nice, extended run. I hope.
Notable bids: Yasiel Puig ($52), Luke Gregerson ($5), Scott Van Slyke ($4), Mike Leake ($3), Bartolo Colon ($3).

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire. With too many injured players, and no end in sight, I dropped Brandon Morrow for Yan Gomes since my catcher duo isn’t exactly strong (Wellington Castillo is my second). Trying to work the waiver-wire to boost the offense.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): Big news… a trade. I need help on the hill and I had Domonic Brown, you know that pretty solid slugger of the Phillies, to offer up. After sifting through a few blah deals, I settled on one that I think is a big boost (note: dealing in experts leagues is awfully tough. Most think Brown can’t keep this up, and most continue to have faith in pitchers that they drafted early in the year even if they’ve been struggling in a big way to this point of the season). I was able to add Matt Cain in the deal. Looking at his pitching line, and I keep pointing this out when folks ask, the only real difference this season has been his HR/9 mark, and one would think that number should continue to shrink. I made two other moves. I dropped Kevin Gausman for Stults ($17), and I let go Dan Haren – who was replaced by Cain – so I could add Will Middlebrooks. Kevin Youkilis and Hanley Ramirez continue to be in and out of the lineup, so I needed to bolster my CI spot.
Notable bids: Gerrit Cole ($224), Rick Porcello ($75), Tyler Colvin ($50), Kyle Blanks ($44), Carlos Quentin ($37), Mike Leake ($22).

FANBALL (13 team mixed): Second place last year, 12 out of 13 this year. Ugh. Big winner this week was Yunel Escobar ($3) as I lost Asdrubal Cabrera to the DL. Eric Stults ($2) makes another appearance at the cost of J.J. Putz.
Notable bids: Nolan Arenado ($6), Rick Porcello ($4), Kyle Blanks ($3), Erasmo Ramirez ($1)

By Ray Flowers

FanDuel Contest: Vegas and $1 Million?

Do you like playing fantasy baseball? Do you like making money? Are you a fan of Sin City?

Thanks to FanDuel.com, you have a chance to enter a contest to win a free trip to Vegas, oh, and to pocket a grand prize of $200,000. All it will cost you is $10. Interested? If so, and why on earth wouldn’t a chance to seem some Vegas show girls, to put a $20 spot down on the craps table, or to walk away with enough money to buy that vacation home you always wanted?

$1 Million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship on FanDuel

Each weekly winner will then be flown to Vegas, all expenses paid by FanDuel.com, and given a shot at the $200,000 grand prize. That’s right. Win two weekly matchups and you’ve got $200,000 coming your way. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. Jordy Nelson last year entered once, one time, and he ended up in the Finals in Vegas cause he won his weekly matchup. He then proceeded to win that year’s grand prize of $100,000. All from one $10 entry.

So what do you do? You go to FanDuel.com and sign up for today’s contest that also gives you a chance to win part of the $24,000 in prizes for Friday’s event.

You then put together your salary cap team (the rules are very simple and can be found at the top of the page if you follow the link).

You win, you’re rolling in cash. Simple as that.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup, as well as those you would be wise to consider passing on for this Friday.

 Visit FanDuel.com.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Clayton Richard

The last two healthy seasons for Clayton Richard have led to 28 wins with 14 in each season (2010, 2012). Richard has also posted an ERA under 4.00 each of the past three years. He’s coming off a season with a career-high in innings pitched (218.2) and a career best WHIP (1.23). That certainly sounds like enough to vault Richard up anyone’s rankings when considering how to evaluate rank pitchers for the 2013 season. So why is there so much trepidation when the name of Clayton Richard is brought up in fantasy circles?

Let’s begin by looking at what Richard does well. His chief skill is his ability to induce grounders and to keep the ball off the fat part of the bat. For his career Richards has an 18.9 line drive rate which is on the low side of average. Over the past four seasons that number has never reached 20 percent so he’s consistently been average or slightly better than that. Richard has also induced grounder after grounder. In his career his GB-rate is 49.8 percent, and the last two seasons that number has been over 50 percent including a career best 54 percent mark in 2012. Obviously with this type of batted ball distribution on his resume his GB/FB ratio is going to be good, and it is. For his career the mark is 1.60 and last seasons 1.93 GB/FB ratio was the 7th best mark in the National League. That’s pretty impressive work.

At this point the other skill that Richard has, an I would bet you that 95 percent of the people reading this already know what I’m going to type next, is Petco Park. Obviously that’s not a “skill” but you get the point. The fact is that Petco is a hard place to drive the ball, an a pitcher like Richard who keeps the ball on the ground is going to have a ton of success in a yard that will help to cover up mistakes he makes up in the zone. Now that wasn’t exactly true in 2012 as his HR/9 mark swelled to 1.28, a career worst, but you can blame that on a 50 percent increase in his HR/FB ratio from 10 percent (career) to 15 percent last season. That number should normalize in 2013 by the way. It is also true that the majority of that homer damage was done on the road (1.44 per nine) versus at home in San Diego (1.03 per nine). Moreover, Richard continued his relative domination at Petco continuing the trend that makes him, at worst, an excellent streaming option when he pitches at home.

2010 (home): 3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 17 starts
2011 (home): 2.30 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in eight starts
2012 (home): 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 14 starts

For his career Richard has made 45 starts at Petco Park. He’s won 19 of those games posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. For some perspective on those numbers the third place finisher in the NL Cy Young Voting, Gio Gonzalez, finished the 2012 season with a 2.89 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The fact is that Richard is actually a must start, no matter what the format, when he starts at home. Of course, the flip side is that he isn’t exactly the best road starter in the world, an in fact his career numbers are on the road are painful to look at: 23-23, 4.92 ERA, 1.53 WHIP in 382.2 innings. Hello Rick Porcello.

So, I can sum up this piece before I finish it with some of the simplest advice I have ever given. You’re crazy if you don’t start Richard at home. You’re crazy if you start him on the road. How is that for some insightful analysis?

Before leaving you for the day, a quick review of the rest of the things you need to know with Richard.

His strikeout rate is deplorable. The last two years he hasn’t even punched out five batters per nine innings and his career mark if 5.69, around two batters below the league average. The lack of punchouts severely dims his fantasy outlook. On the plus side he did something last year that he had never done as well before – he threw strike after strike. For his career he’s walked just slightly more than three batters per nine innings. Last season he dropped that mark down to 1.73 walks per nine, literally half of his total from 2010-11 (the mark was 3.46 in those two seasons). We certainly need more than just one season at that level to say he’s now that pitcher, but it’s an extremely heartening development for a guy whose perfect game would be 27 pitches with all 27 outs generated on ground balls.

Richard is nothing exciting to look at, and he comes with severe limitations, but that doesn’t mean you can’t reap a substantial return on your investment with him if you deploy him properly.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

John Buck vs. Cliff Lee: Buck has been awful this year but in his last six games he has three homers and seven RBI. He’s also got a matchup that he has had success in given that he has hit .317 with three homers an a 1.001 OPS over 41 at-bats against the one time ace lefty.

Ryan Roberts vs. Randy Wolf: Roberts isn’t exactly tearing it up, but with Josh Bell demoted he has a shot to reclaim a daily role with the club. He hit a homer in his last game and Friday he faces Wold who he has produced seven hits in 15 at-bats against (.467 with one homer). By the way, don’t start Wolf Friday. He’s allowed a .329/.391/.574 slash line to the current D’backs roster in 155 at-bats.

B.J. Upton vs. Justin Verlander: You know the term ‘playing with fire?’ Here we go with that. Upton has been in a terrible slump that has led to one hit in six games, and he faces arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Still, the numbers suggest it’s not as bad as it seems as Upton has eight hits, including a homer, in 18 at-bats against Verlander leading to a .444 average and five RBIs (Hideki Matsui has also had some success hitting .333 in 24 at-bats).

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ross Detwiler vs. Braves: He hasn’t had much success against the Braves in his career with a 3.80 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over 23.2 innings, but his numbers this season against everyone look impressive (3.09 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). Plus, he’s been locked in for the month of June with a 1.10 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 16.1 innings.

Brian Duensing vs. Royals: This is one of those shot in the dark calls based totally on history and pretty much nothing else. Brian D. has made only one start this year so he isn’t likely to go deep into this game, and his last outing was unsuccessful (4 ER in 2 IP). Still, history says he makes for a nice play against the Royals: 6-2, 2.98 ERA over 57.1 innings.

Mike Leake vs. Giants: Leake has killed it in June with a 2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 4.50 K/BB ratio (though he’s only gone 1-0, great job Reds). The negative? He faces Matt Cain.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Wilson Betemit vs. Josh Tomlin: Three things make this move make sense. (1) Betemit is 7-for-17 with two homers and four RBI against Tomlin. (2) Betemit has been hot in June hitting .383 with a 1.008 OPS in 60 at-bats. (3) Tomlin has been awful in June with a 6.75 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 10 Ks in 26.2 innings.

Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: Just seeing this matchup should interest you, even if you had no idea about their history versus one another. Given that Mauer is hitting .450 with a .577 OBP against Hochevar in 26 plate appearances, it’s lock and load time with the star hitting catcher.

Placido Polanco vs. Mark Buehrle: Normally Polanco would be the last guy to pay any attention at all too since all he does is produce singles. Still, you simply cannot overlook his massive career efforts against the Miami lefty. In 41 career at-bats Polanco has, get this, 18 hits leading to a .439 batting average against Buehrle.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Michael Fiers vs. D’backs: He’s looked pretty darn good this season for the Brew Crew with 31 Ks and just five walks over 33.1 innings. That will play in any league. He’s also working on a 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, not to mention that he has allowed just one run over his last 15.1 innings.

Mat Latos vs. Giants: He gets the weak link of the Giants staff in Barry Zito, and he’s also dominated the club from San Fran in 10 career starts with a 2.35 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 4.00 K/BB ratio.

Rick Porcello vs. Tampa Bay: His season has been an uneven one, what else is new, but he’s looked pretty locked in over his last two starts permitting three runs over 13 innings. He’s also going to be facing a club that he ha had success against in three career starts. Over 20 innings Rick P. has 17 Ks and has issued only five free passes leading to a 3.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

CONTESTS

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By Ray Flowers 

Quick Starting Pitchers

Most starting pitchers have only taken the mound two or three times. But as we all know in the fantasy game, it’s never too early to try an improve a fantasy squad. Given that line of thought, I decided to discuss some of the under the radar types that are off to strong starts for their respective clubs. I’ll assume the following for the sake of the discussion: we’re in a 12 team mixed league that starts nine pitchers on a weekly basis. There are certainly scenarios in this setup where every pitcher on this list might have some use, but that doesn’t mean any of them should be making 30 starts for you this season in a 12 team setup.

Blake Beavan, Mariners: 1-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
Beavan hasn’t beat himself in two starts issuing only one free pass, and that will be key for a guy who had only 42 strikeouts last year in 97 innings. Beavan pitches to contact and was successful doing that last year with a 4.27 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 15 starts. The problem is, that level of production is all you have a right to expect from the Mariners tall righty – and that just doesn’t move the needle.

Kevin Correia, Pirates: 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP
In two starts he has been the quintessential ‘let the batters put the ball in play and let my defense work for me’ type. Through 12 innings he’s only walked three batters while striking out just five. However, he’s also pitched in two solid pitcher’s barns in Los Angeles and San Francisco, and that’s likely part of the reason for his success. Also, don’t fool yourself, Correia simply isn’t a very good hurler. For his career, and we’re over 900-innings now, he’s posted a 4.56 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6.23 K/9 and 1.86 K/BB. Simply put, he’s as blah as blah gets though it should be noted that in his last 16 starts on the road his ERA is 2.45 while his WHIP is 1.09.

Matt Harrison, Rangers: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
The Twins and the White Sox did little against Harrison who has picked right up from where he was last season when he won 14 games with a 3.89 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Harrison has a heavy ball that leads to a lot of grounders, but he’s not an elite ground ball hurler (46 percent of batted balls). Given that he doesn’t miss many bats and that he had a career best 6.11 K/9 mark last season, his margin for error isn’t exactly large. With wins being variable, this isn’t a skill set that necessarily points to long term fantasy success, but he should be pretty solid.

Rick Porcello, Tigers: 1-0, 1.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
A first round selection in 2007, Porcello has the stuff to be a major asset to the Tigers. The Rays and White Sox witnessed that first hand as Rick went seven innings against both club while issuing just  single free pass in the process. Poised to produce a breakout, this ground ball ace still isn’t an overly intriguing fantasy option (52 percent of batted balls end up rolling through the infield grass). Why is that? The lack of strikeouts of course. I target starters with a K/9 mark of at least six. Through 91 big league starts Porcello has been deficient with a 4.84 mark. Again, real world success is certainly possible, but in 12 team mixed leagues Porcello is more of a match up option than someone you should be rolling out there every week.

Joe Saunders, D’backs: 1-0, 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
A two-start pitcher this week, Saunders followed up seven shutout innings against the Padres by allowing one run over seven innings against the Pirates Monday. Saunders is as blah as it gets. Just take a look at his numbers over 163 career starts: 4.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.03 K/9, 1.75 K/BB, 1.27 GB/FB. Purely a matchup option, I’d hope that Saunders is only being used when he’s facing the Pirates or Padres, or when he’s starting twice in a week.

Jake Westbrook, Cardinals: 2-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Like so many others on this list, Westbrook is a better real world pitcher than he is a fantasy weapon. Westbrook lasted seven innings in each of his first two starts, and his ratios are wonderful. Still, he has only four punchouts in the two games while he’s issued five free passes. Westbrook will win games, and he’s looked pretty strong since spring, but the guys has a career ERA of 4.30, a WHIP of 1.39 and his career best for Ks is 128. I’ll pass.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 2, 2011

You asked at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account so I felt compelled to give a few thoughts.

Heard anything from scouts/injury experts re: James Shields getting torched?
– @rlawealth

Sample size people.

Last time out Shields was blasted by the A’s for 12 hits and 10 runs causing his season long ERA to rise a half a run. Two starts before that Shields allowed six runs to the Red Sox over six innings of work. So Shields must be injured or simply out of gas, right? I don’t think that is the only logical position to take here. Despite the two beatings he has taken of late, consider the following.

(1) Shields has an ERA of 3.03. His career mark is 4.08 and he has never posted a mark under 3.56.

(2) Shields has a 1.07 WHIP. His career mark is 1.25 and he has never posted a mark under 1.11.

(3) Shields has an 8.59 K/9 rate. His career mark is 7.55 and he’s never posted a mark above 8.28.

Could it just be that a regression to the mean is underway here? Even with getting bombed twice of late, he’s still on pace to set career bests in numerous categories. Not just that, he’s right in line with career norms in a handful of other categories.

2011: 1.21 GB/FB, 18.3 percent LD-rate, 10.9 HR/F
Career: 1.15 GB/FB, 18.9 percent LD-rate, 11.6 HR/F

Is Shields hurt? That’s possible though I’ve seen nothing to suggest it. Is he wearing down? That seems unlikely given that he has thrown at least 200-innings each of the past four years. My bet is that sooner or later numbers tend to even out, and it just seems like that might be happening with Shields.

Drop Anibal Sanchez for Derrek Lee? I’m 40+ in IP.
– @SpecialFNK

Sanchez has been really strong this year. His 3.74 ERA matches his career mark, while he’s knocked off a tenth in the WHIP category (1.26). More impressively he’s jacked up his K-rate two batters to an impressive 9.37 per nine while lowering his BB-rate by a full batter from 3.63 in his career to 2.62 this season. He’s pitched better than anyone could have expected and given his owners some wonderful production. However, he has only six wins on the year. He’s also allowed four earned in his last two starts and four times in five he has allowed four or more. He’s also failed to last more than five innings in three of his last six starts. Perhaps the toll of the long season is catching up to him, or maybe things are just leveling out after his tremendous start?

Lee has long been one of the more consistent bats first base, even if he’s only on a couple of occasions been an elite performer. Since 2000, in every season of at least 500 plate appearances, Lee has hit 19 homers, drive in 70 runs and scored 70 times. Add in that he has hit at least .286 in five of the past six years, and you have yourself one solid corner infield option in mixed leagues. This season has been a rough for for Lee though, he’s posted a slash line of .249/.304/.423 versus his career levels of .281/.364/.494, but things have turned of late. Not only did he bash two long balls in his first game as a Pirate, Lee has gone deep four times with 10 RBI in six games and over his last 26 games he has eight homers and 22 RBI. Clearly he is locked in at the moment.

Would I make this move? It all depends on your needs. I have no issue with the move, the players seem to be headed in different directions, you’re pushing your innings pitched limit, and it seems like you could use an offensive boost.

Rick Porcello or Mat Latos rest of this year?
– @BennetTaub

Porcello is winning, and people notice that. Over his last five starts he is 5-0, and not once in that span has he allowed more than three earned runs. Of course, the previous three starts he allowed 18 runs in 11. innings so it’s not like his consistency is his middle name. I also look at his yearly numbers and see a terrible K-rate (5.35 per nine), middling ratios (4.50 ERA and 1.37 WHIP), and think to myself that this guy is a better real world pitcher than fantasy option at this stage of his development.

Latos has slightly better ratios on the year (4.10 ERA, 1.34 WHIP), and his K/9 rate of 8.49 is near elite. Latos has not been as good as Porcello the last month, but the last time he allowed more than four earned runs in a game was April 16th, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts and 10 of 12 starts.

I’d go with Latos. He’s been more consistent on the year and has a massive advantage in the K-category. Of course, if you are targeting wins, more about that below by the way, I understand the desire to go with Porcello who has as many victories in his last five outings as Latos has all season with the Padres.

Would you drop Bud Norris for Derek Holland? Similar pitcher, worried about Astros.
– @TheJeffShelton

The Astros’ offense stinks, and that will certainly make it more difficult on any of their arms to pick up victories. However, as we all know, wins are impossible to predict. I mean, how is it possible that Jake Arrieta (5.05 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) has 10 victories while Josh Beckett (2.17 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) has nine.

Norris has delivered this year with nearly a strikeout per inning (130 in 135 frames), while posting a solid ERA (3.47) and a passable WHIP (1.32). He also doesn’t seem to be slowing too much as he has allowed one or zero earned runs in five of his last 10 starts. There is some concern about his innings count, he has never tossed more than 175.2 innings, but his performance on the hill looks solid for now.

Holland is another young, hard throwing young Texan arm. He cannot match the strikeout exploits of Norris, his K/9 mark is 6.67, but he does a solid job of limiting the walks (2.98 per nine, about a half batter better than Norris). Like Norris he is pitching well of late. Moreover, he’s been phenomenal over his last five starts. Sure he got lit up for seven runs on July 20th, but in the other four outings he hasn’t allowed a single earned run as he has tossed three complete game shutouts.

Holland does have better offensive support, and is on an extreme roll right now, so making the move from the righty to the lefty isn’t something that I’m gonna give the thumbs down to.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Today vs. Tomorrow

What kind of person are you? Do you spend money as soon as you cash that work check, or do you put it away and save for that house you and your spouse have planned to buy? While this may seem like an odd question to pose given the nature of this blog, the truth is that baseball team’s deal with the same issue on an almost daily basis. What am I talking about? A little background first.

The Yankees currently sit in first place in the AL East, 2.5 games ahead of the Red Sox going into their matchup tonight. This is hardly enough of gap for the Yankees to do anything but plow ahead continuing to do what they have done thus far (no one is going to be taken a vacation on the bench to rest their bodies).

Joba Chamberlain, the Yankees starter on Thursday night, is 7-2 on the year with a 3.58 ERA over his 20 starts this season. Those are certainly respectable numbers, especially considering a few of the rough outings that Joba has given this year. Still, in his 20 trips to the hill he has allowed three or fewer runs 17 times which would be simply terrific if not for the fact that Joba has failed to last six innings in nine of those starts (45 percent of the time). However, Joba has pitched very well of late having won each of his last three games during which time he has 19 Ks, eight walks, a 0.83 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. That’s dealing folks. So what did ESPN’s Buster Olney say when talking about Chamberlain today? Here is what he said (I’m paraphrasing, but it’s awfully close) – Joba is on a “hard” innings pitched count this season of 160, and he will not, under any circumstance, exceed that number.

Why is that? The team is concerned that they could blow out Joba’s arm early if they don’t allow him to build up arm strength over the years. While I think this is a preposterous position to take, there is some obvious validity to their concerns, especially since Joba has never been a big innings pitched guy. Here are his innings totals since his days at Nebraska in college.

2005: 118.2
2006: 89.1
2007: 112.1
2008: 100.1
2009: 110.2

Obviously it wouldn’t make a heck of a lot of sense to let a guy add 100-innings to his previous high in innings pitched, so I can sympathize with that line of thought. At the same time, did anyone worry about pitch or inning counts back when a guy like Roger Clemens, who Joba is often compared to, was tossing 254 innings the season he was 23 years old (the same age as Joba)? Or how about the 7-straight seasons, starting with that year, that the Rocket eclipsed 225-innings pitched? Have today’s players become “wussified” – a word I’m petitioning Webster’s to add to their dictionary by the way. I’ll leave that argument for another day.

The bottom line is this – should a club like the Yankees worry about protecting their investment, one that could pay dividends for the next decade, at the expense of the current season? What if Joba goes 5-0 in his next six starts with a 1.95 ERA? Should the Yankees still shut him down because he has reached his innings pitched limit? And don’t think this is just a Yankees situation as other youngsters like Rick Porcello, Mat Latos and Clayton Kershaw could also see their workload curtailed as the season winds down (that matters little in the case of Latos since the Padres have nothing to play for, but what about Kershaw who’s Dodgers could play well into October? He tossed 169 innings last season between Double-A and the bigs so does that mean the Dodgers let him hit 200 this season? At his current pace Kershaw might push up against that total during the regular season. Will they shut him down come playoff time if he is their best pitcher? That would certainly take some massive huevos rancheros – and yes, I know that makes no sense).

I don’t know what the answer is, but I can tell you this – if I’m a fan of a team, or I have that guy on my fantasy roster, I certainly don’t want his team to “wussify” him at the expense of immediate success. Damn it I want my 50-inch flat screen. I could care less about that house I’m not going to be able to afford for another eight years.

By Ray Flowers

Eye of the Beholder

Monday was a bit of a slow day for news, but I still was able to ferret a couple stories that I found interesting, and if a guy as interesting as me though the stories had some merit, i.e. interest, well then you can take it to the bank – they are some darn interesting storylines.

Randy Johnson will head to the DL with a strained throwing shoulder. There still isn’t definitive news on how long he will be out, but the fear is that it will be much longer than 15 days (the hope right now is for him to return in about three weeks). What that means is that the Giants will likely have to turn back to Jonathan Sanchez, a potentially dangerous situation given his often profound struggles this season (5.94 BB/9, 1.48 K/BB, 1.69 WHIP). Still, the guy has no-hit stuff, if he could ever control it.

Tim Lincecum is quite possibly the most exciting mound presence since Pedro Martinez in his prime. The flowing hair, the stuff, the presence and the stare that says “I’m going to come right at you and there is nothing you can do about it” – the kid is the stuff of legend. Adding to the visceral feel of his presence are the dominating numbers he has produced in his short career. Through 75 starts Lincecum is 34-12, good enough for a .739 winning percentage. As a result, he is just the tenth pitcher in baseball history , since 1900 anyway, to produce a winning percentage that high through his first 75 starts. As flat out dominating as he has been, would it surprise to learn that Tim Hudson was even better through his first 75 starts with an amazing 43-13 record, good enough for a .768 winning percentage?

Rick Porcello will have his nest start skipped meaning he won’t appear again until after the All-Star break. Nothing is wrong, the team is just playing it safe with their future star so that they can avoid burning him out as he has already tossed 87 effective innings (8-6, 4.14 ERA). “We always said all along we were going to pick our spots to protect him,” manager Jim Leyland said. “It has nothing to do with yesterday’s performance, I can tell you that. … To be honest with you, I’m sure he doesn’t like it, but it’s what we’re going to do to protect him.” Smart moves like this mean that the Tigers really have Porcello’s long-term interests in mind (of course they are being selfish too because they obviously don’t want to burn out their future All-Star).

So much for the Chris Ray is going to close for the Orioles when they eventually trade George Sherrill line of thought. Ray, who has been miserable this season with a 9.28 ERA and a 2.30 WHIP, has been placed on the DL with right biceps tendonitis. At this point we have no idea how long he will be out (the club is hopeful it won’t take more than three weeks), but with his ineffectiveness and now injury, the team would be crazy to count on Ray in the second half. Jim Johnson owners in AL only leagues rejoice – you might pick up a few saves after all.

Mark Teixeira is hitting just .243 with a .800 OPS on the road. He is also hitting just .257 without a single long ball in 18 games. Amazing how a guy who is this consistent year-to-year can be so streaky within a season.

There was a report from ESPN that the Braves and Brewers were discussing a potential deal for Javier Vazquez. Really? When I heard that I thought to myself that on the surface that seemed like one stupid rumor. Good to know that my “spider-sense” was dead on as the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel came out later in the day saying that the rumored deal was pure bolder dash. Sometimes I think that these guys just make up stories on slow news day. Still, it wasn’t a totally useless fishing expedition as the rumor did help to draw to the surface the recent comments of Ryan Braun. “Regardless of the reasons, we’ve got to find a way to throw the ball a little bit better for us to have success. When you’re constantly behind in games, it’s not easy and not fun.” How accurate was Braun’s analysis? The Brewers are currently 13th in the NL in ERA (4.47), tied for seventh in WHIP (1.39) and 11th in K/BB (1.96). They certainly could use an arm or two in that starting rotation.

By Ray Flowers