The Strikeout: Starters

You are all aware that I host The Fantasy Drive each day on SirusXM Fantasy Sports Radio right? If you weren’t aware I do, and you can catch the fantasy sports talk from 5-8PM EDT daily, Monday through Friday, on channels XM 147 and Sirius 211. Now that the infomercial section of the article is over, let’s get to the relevance of why I brought this up.

As part of my work with SiriusXM, I was tasked with putting together a 10-15 minute segment on the art of strikeout. When the wheels started turning I was able to work up a list of some rather interesting bits o’ information, so I thought I would share that with you all in print as well.

The 2010 Season

I don’t know if pitchers are getting better, if batters are getting worse, if it was a one anomaly, or if the removal of PED’s from the game has helped to level the playing field, but 2010 was a very good year for pitchers.

* In 2010 pitchers posted a K/9 mark of 7.13. That was the highest mark of the 21st century (from 2000-10 the big league average has been 6.67).

* The last five years the K/9 rate has gone up from 6.38 to 7.13 per nine.

The Targets

What numbers would you look to as “targets” when it comes to the strikeout? Here are some thoughts.

(1) Don’t overlook guys who didn’t post huge strikeout totals as it’s much more important to pay attention to the context of a strikeout, in this case the K/9 mark of a hurler. A perfect example is Bud Norris. He “only” had 158 Ks last year, but that’s because he pitched only 153.2 innings. On the other hand, his K/9 rate was as exceedingly impressive 9.25. Look at the ratio versus the raw K-total, it’s much more valuable when trying to discern who the strikeout aces are.

(2) In the fantasy game, I wouldn’t target a starter with a K/9 mark under 6.50 or a reliever under 7.50. Starters can have success below that level without a doubt – especially extreme ground ballers are but one example of the type of hurler that could still succeed with mediocre strike rates – but I’d prefer a staff of guys like Bud Morris and Brandon Morrow over the Derek Lowe’s and Jake Westbrook’s of the world every time.

(3) Even though this is about the strikeout, make sure to look at walks as well. Heat does you no good if you can’t throw strikes (hello Oliver Perez). In 2010 pitchers posted a 2.17 K/BB mark thanks to the extra strikeouts and a 5-year low of 3.28 in the BB/9 column. As a result, the 2.17 K/BB mark was the best in the 21st century.

Starting Pitchers

With that primer, here is a list of the top strikeout artists, as defined by their K/9 marks, from the 2010 season.

K/9 Amongst qualifiers – minimum 162 IP

9.79 Tim Lincecum
9.74 Jon Lester
9.73 Yovani Gallardo
9.54 Jonathan Sanchez
9.44 Francisco Liriano
9.35 Jered Weaver
9.34 Clayton Kershaw
9.21 Mat Latos
9.11 Josh Johnson
9.10 Cole Hamels
8.79 Justin Verlander
8.78 Colby Lewis
8.69 Ryan Dempster
8.69 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.46 Max Scherzer
8.36 Felix Hernandez
8.32 Adam Wainwright
8.28 James Shields
8.27 Dan Haren
8.22 Wandy Rodriguez

If we drop down the innings pitched mark a bit lower, here is the list that we come up with (players in italics are new additions to the above list).

K/9 – minimum 100 IP

10.95 Brandon Morrow
9.79 Tim Lincecum
9.74 Jon Lester
9.73 Yovani Gallardo
9.54 Jonathan Sanchez
9.52 Manny Parra
9.44 Francisco Liriano
9.35 Jered Weaver
9.34 Clayton Kershaw
9.25 Bud Norris
9.21 Mat Latos
9.11 Josh Johnson
9.10 Cole Hamels
9.04 Jhoulys Chacin
8.79 Justin Verlander
8.78 Colby Lewis
8.69 Ryan Dempster
8.69 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.46 Max Scherzer
8.41 Hisanori Takahashi

Mr. Morrow ends up leading baseball with a K/9 rate of 10.95. If he were able to maintain that rate over 190 innings that would lead to 231 strikeouts, the same total that Tim Lincecum posted which was the best mark in the NL. However, Brandon Morrow, Manny Parra, Bud Norris and Jhoulys Chacin, while major strikeout contributors, all posted a BB/9 mark over 4.00, so they certainly come with risk.

Starters to Target

The following group of pitchers are those starters you should target, ones with a K/9 of 7.00 and a K/BB above 2.75 last season (min. 100 IP). There were only 26 such hurlers in 2010.

Roy Halladay
Tommy Hanson
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Matt Cain
Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Mat Latos
Jered Weaver
Zack Greinke
Jake Peavy
Josh Johnson
Shaun Marcum
Colby Lewis
Dan Haren
Justin Verlander
Francisco Liriano
Adam Wainwright
Roy Oswalt
Scott Baker
Ted Lilly

Here are five more who made the list who might not have been obvious considering the other aspects of their pitching performance last season..

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlin’s hurler has a 4.81 ERA past two years despite some excellent work on the hill. His K/9 mark of 8.98 is 7th best in baseball in that time, while his 4.44 K/BB ratio is 4th best. Buy low on him if you can.

Travis Wood: The rookie had a rather solid K/9 mark of 7.54, and with a lack of walks he was able to post a strong 3.31 K/BB.

James Shields: – Despite 15 Loses and 5.18 ERA, Shields actually posted the best K/9 of his career at 8.28. Shields also posted a strong 3.67 K/BB, just slightly off his career 3.70 mark. Buy him at a discount this year, he’s as good as he has ever been.

Hiroki Kuroda: The Dodgers’ depth starter had a 7.29 K/9 (the best of career), which led to a similarly impressive 3.31 K/BB mark. He isn’t a fantasy ace, but he is a fine option to round out a staff.

Jason Hammel : The Rockies’ righty had a career best 7.14 K/9 and a solid 3.00 K/BB (it was 3.17 in ’09). He will be a bargain on draft day after posting a poor 4.81 ERA in ’10.

Solid Pitchers to Avoid
Ground ball types: Carl Pavano (4.76 K/9), Mike Pelfrey (4.99), Bronson Arroyo (5.05), Dallas Braden (5.28),Fausto Carmona (5.31), Tim Hudson (5.47), Jake Westbrook (5.68), Brett Cecil (6.10), Derek Lowe (6.32).

By Ray Flowers

Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought

I’m going wild about pitching today as I point out a few pitchers who actually pitched better than you may have thought they did during the just completed 2010 season.

Scott Baker had elbow surgery this fall, but he should be fully healthy by the start of Spring Training. Should you care after he posted a 4.49 ERA for the Twins in 2010? Heck yes you should. Baker had a 7.82 K/9 mark, a career best, and though he also posted a 5-year high with a 2.27 BB/9 mark, his K/BB mark was still 3.44. Toss in 148 Ks, and Baker was one of just eight pitchers – eight – in all of baseball to have a 7.80 K/9, 3.40 K/BB, 145 or more K’s and a walk rate under 2.30 per nine. Look at the others on the list: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Roy Oswalt, Jered Weaver and Dan Haren.

The eighth guy? He is another hurler I would look to buy low on in 2011, and that is James Shields. There is no way that Shields should once again lead the AL in homers allowed (34), and he certainly won’t allow another BABIP mark of .354, especially considering his career mark is just .316. You also have to factor in that Shields posted a K/9 rate of about a batter better than his career mark of 7.38 at 8.28. Guys with K/9 rates that high who also post a 3.67 K/BB mark just don’t post ERA’s over five very often (Shields was at 5.18). In fact, over the past 11 years, Shields season is one of only two by a hurler with at least an 8.20 K/9 mark, a 3.65 K/BB ratio an an ERA over 5.00. The other season like that was authored by Ricky Nolasco in 2009.

Chris Narveson just barely posted an ERA in the four’s at 4.99 over 37 appearances, including 28 starts. How in the world could he have pitched better than that number looks? Well, things clearly took a turn for the better in the second half of the year as everything simply clicked for Chris. Over his last 14 appearances, all starts, Narveson was 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. That’s some seriously strong pitching. He also posted a decent 2.75 K/BB ratio as batters hit just .231 off him over those 81 innings. He’s no ace, but once the draft hits the late rounds next year, don’t forget about this Brewers’ starter.

A.J. Burnett. There, I said it, and now people are running for the exits right? Hear me out before you go pulling the alarm lever.

Burnett was terrible late in the year (3-8, 5.95 ERA over his last 15 starts), but his overall performance, other than a rather precipitous drop in his K/9 rate (6.99 in 2010, 8.23 for his career), really wasn’t awful compared to his career levels. Burnett did lose a mph off his fastball, but he was still throwing it 93 mph, so there likely wasn’t an injury. Secondly, his walk rate was 3.76, which is almost spot on his career mark of 3.78. His 1.21 HR/9 mark was a three year high, but that mark was 1.09 in 2009 and 1.25 in 2007, so it wasn’t that far off his recent performance. His BABIP of .319 was a bit above his career .297 rate, but it was lower than the .328 mark he posted in 2008. His GB/FB ratio was a bit down at 1.20 (career 1.49), but it was better than his ’09 mark (1.09). And for goodness sakes, his line drive rate was a 3-year low (17.6 percent) and the second best mark in six years. Burnett will be an afterthought on draft day 2011, and I’m telling you, he has a chance to produce a nice return on investment if the cost is low enough.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 26, 2010

(1) Dustin Pedroia (knee) likely done for year.

(2) Ricky Nolasco to pitch through torn meniscus in knee.

(3) Jordan Zimmerman is back. Will Stephen Strasburg return?

(4) Manny Ramirez on waivers – Rangers, Rays, White Sox interested.

(5) Brad Hawpe drawing interest from Red Sox, Rays and Rangers.

(6) Jason Bay (concussion) – no updates.

(7) Jonathan Broxton still in setup role.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 23, 2010

(1) Stephen Strasburg headed to DL on Thursday with strained flexor tendon.

(2) Giants awarded Cody Ross. You can also read more about the Giaints’ outfield situation at GoldenGateGiants.com.

(3) Johnny Damon awarded to the Red Sox.

(4) Manny Ramirez likely to be placed on waivers this week.

(5) Ricky Nolasco (knee) might be done for the year.

By Ray Flowers

Let Tuesday Roll

I’m all over the place today (seems like I’ve written that before). So I thought what better way to lead off my grab bag o’ thoughts than to just put it – so there it is.

For all the posturing and good news about the health of Carlos Beltran’s knee, word from the Mets is that he will not start his minor league rehab assignment this week. In fact, some reports seem to suggest that he is still running with a limp at times. I’m still not counting on him being back until the All-Star break, so even if he does somehow return before that point I won’t be counting on much production.

Ryan Braun has an OPS of .865 which is, remarkably, less than guys like Austin Kearns (.877), David DeJesus (.871) and Luke Scott (.868). Come on Mr. Braun, get her in gear buddy. Speaking of getting it in gear, how wretched has Prince Fielder been this year? Fielder has 24 RBI, the same total as Eric Hinske who has 120 fewer at-bats, and his .447 SLG is lower than Gaby Sanchez (.452) who has all of seven homers. All told, Fielder is on pace for 30 homers and 61 RBI. That’s the kind of production you were hoping for when you spent your second round pick on Fielder this season, isn’t it? I know it’s really close to the 46 homers and 141 RBI he had last season. Goodness.

If you spent all day watching True Blood’s season three opener over and over again, you might have missed the fact that the Athletics traded for Conor Jackson. If you did, or if you simply are curious, you can find my thoughts about the deal at Around the Horn – Bay Area Style.

Aaron Heilman has been named the closer for the D’backs ending the nightmare that has been the closing run of Chad Qualls. At the same time, manager A.J. Hinch indicated that he will use Heilman when he is needed most based on the game situation, so he could still pitch in the 7th or 8th innings. With as bad as that pen has been, they might see if they can find a way to get Heilman to pitch the 7th, 8th and 9th innings each night.

Am I the only one out there fellas that hates shaving everyday? Wait, I don’t have to do that because I have one of the coolest jobs in the world. Don’t spread this around either, but I also wear slippers to work on some days. How bad do you want to be me right now?

Never known as a power bat, Howie Kendrick has 18 RBI in his last 14 games for the Angels. Kendrick knocked in 61 runs last season, a career best, and is currently on pace for 101 this season. Of course, you know these things have a way of evening out which is why it’s hardly surprising to see that he is batting only .273 this season (career .297).

People always wonder what my thoughts are on players – at least that’s what I tell myself even if there are only three of you out there who continue to submit questions from various email addresses. For those of you that do care about my thoughts, or simply would like to see some analysis of pitchers Derek Lowe, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Matt Talbot and C.J. Wilson, the link to The Chopping Block is one that you’ll want to click on.

I’m sitting here staring out the window thinking about my plans for Wednesday night. Since my life is always private – when have I ever written or talked about it (wink, wink) – I’ll simply state I’m looking forward to it about as much as Matt Holliday is looking forward to hitting second in front of Albert Pujols, the best hitter in baseball, and that’s a lot.

Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick have been flipped in the Phillies rotation meaning Moyer will pitch Wednesday and Kendrick Thursday. Since both will face the Yankees you shouldn’t have either active regardless of when they are on the bump.

Speaking of the Phillies, the latest report seems to suggest that Jimmy Rollins (calf) might still be a year, I mean a week, away from returning. I got confused there and thought we were talking about Brian Roberts.

By Ray Flowers

More of the Same

Today is more of the same, and by that I mean I’m going to break down a handful of the players whose names are in the news as free agents looking to strike it rich.

The Braves need to move salary, and their goal is to move Derek Lowe and the 3-years, and $45 million left on his deal. As you might expect, they haven’t found any takers on the contract so they are apparently considering moving Javier Vazquez and his $11.5 million deal, potentially to the Angels. This would be a bad baseball move for the Braves. Sure Vazquez is coming off a career best season of a 2.87 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 238 Ks, but he was their best pitcher last year and is about as consistent an arm as you could ever hope to find once you leave the ranks of the superstars. The move might make financial sense, especially since the Braves appear highly unlikely to sign him to an extension when his deal runs out at the end of the 2010 season, but on the field, not so much. As for Lowe, here is what he said when asked by the media about the Braves apparent desire to move him after his worst season since 2004 (4.67 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). “I don’t think it’s a matter of if anymore. It’s just a matter of when… “Nobody made them give me a four-year, $60 million contract. There wasn’t a ransom or anybody holding a gun to their heads… I would have never even considered going there if I knew that ultimately this was going to happen.” I don’t know if I believe that, we are taking about $60 million, but Lowe certainly has a point. If the Braves were going to bail on him if he had a rough couple of months, why did they bother signing him in the first place?

Some other rumors —

Looks like Nick Johnson will be headed to the Yankees. The latest report says that he is on the verge of signing a one year deal for about $5.5 million. As I wrote on BaseballGuys’ Twitter page today – “Yankees want a DH that can play the field, show athleticism. Of course, my first thoughts go to Nick Johnson.” It’s a bit of an odd signing and one that might signal that Johnny Damon will be in a new uni in 2010.

After apparently losing out on Johnson, the Giants are still in need of a corner infield bat. A name that continues to be linked to them, more because of need than because of the probability of a deal actually being struck, is Adrian Beltre. Though his stick failed last season (.265-8-44), Beltre can still hit .270 with 20 homers, and he plays a fine third base. Problem is he wants something like 4-years and $40 million, and though I have no inside knowledge of the Giants front office, I can’t think they would get within $10 million of that figure.

The Cardinals likely won’t be able to bring back utility man Mark DeRosa. Seems like the player, and his agent, have grown a bit weary of waiting for the Cardinals to decide what they are going to do with Matt Holliday. In an odd twist, the Cardinals appear to be tiring of the delay with Holliday who continues to dry to squeeze them for more dough. Is it possible that they could end up with neither player in 2010? Looks possible at this point. Could DeRosa end up with the Giants? Certainly could happen if they are willing to give him the $30 million I suggested as a potential figure with Beltre.

Ricky Nolasco signed a 1-year, $3.8 million deal to remain with the Marlins. This is a good singing for a guy who was really unlucky last season (.336 BABIP despite a 9.49 K/9 mark and a 4.43 K/BB rate). Now the club will turn its sights to Josh Johnson who wants something like $42 million, basically double the $23 million that the Fish have reportedly offered. That’s a pretty wide gulf to cross.

By Ray Flowers

Cry Baby Cry

We all can whine about the plight of our teams. I’m sure you all have a story about how you missed on the guy you wanted to draft by one selection, or the guy you drafted seems to think that the aim of the game is to swing and miss rather than ripping line drives all over the field. I get it, believe me. So I’m gonna let the tears flow today and let you know how upset I’ve become with a few of the guys I have selected for my various fantasy baseball teams in 2009.

Mike Aviles: I certainly didn’t think he was going to hit .325 again, but .183? Currently on the DL with a strained right forearm, Aviles will only need to go 20 for his next 20 to raise his average up to .300 when he returns. I feel that’s doable – you?

Grant Balfour: Last year 1.54 ERA and a 12.65 K/9. This year, 5.48 ERA and a 8.61 K/9. A regression was coming, but to half of last year’s value?

Chris Davis: Twelve home runs is great. A .194 batting average, not so much. He could set a record for futility as well as he is whiffing 46.7% of the time. That’s right, he already has 77 Ks this season in 165 ABs, or more strikeouts that Albert Pujols has had in any of the last seven seasons.

Joey Devine: The potential closer a year after posting a 0.59 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP, Devine didn’t throw a single regular season pitch before being sent to the DL and ultimately requiring elbow surgery costing him the entire season. Thanks Joey, not like I was counting on you for 30 saves or anything.

Rafael Furcal: Glad you had him in your top-5 at shortstop now that he is hitting .253 with one home run and three steals?

Corey Hart: What happened to that breakout campaign? After back-to-back 20/20 seasons he is barely on pace to go 20/10, though he is almost certain to set a career high in Ks with 50 in 48 games, almost halfway to last year’s worst of 109 in 157 games.

Howie Kendrick: The man can hit .300 in his sleep. He must be in a coma since he is batting .225.

Brandon Morrow: The Mariners’ reliever has a strong 8.22 K/9 mark. Oops. That’s his walks per nine inning mark. How amazingly putrid is that? By the way, his K/9 mark is 10.57.

Ricky Nolasco: So bad he was demoted to the minors where he has dominated in two starts. He has been exceedingly unlucky as his BABIP is astronomical at .402, but that doesn’t help to wick away the tears after he has posted a 9.07 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP through nine starts.

Alexei Ramirez: How had has he been this year? Despite the fact that he is batting .329 over his last 70 at-bats, the man is still hitting just .253 on the year. He is on pace for 30 steals, but the 10 home run pace is pretty awful for a guy who hit 21 last year in just 480 at-bats.

Alex Rios: Is he ever going to put it all together? His career best numbers across the board are .302-24-85-114-32. Currently he is on pace to hit about .275-22-80-80-12.

Jimmy Rollins: Hitting just .230 on the year, Rollins has only three home runs giving him 14 taters in his last 769 at-bats dating back to the start of 2008. Will you finally believe now that his 30 home run season of 2007 was a fluke?

Andy Sonnanstine: Luckily for him I drafted Nolasco or he would be feeling a lot more of my wrath for going 3-5 with a 7.66 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP.

Rickie Weeks: Out for the year with wrist surgery. What could have been considering he was on pace to hit more than 30 home runs with about 100 RBI and 100 runs.

Chris Young: 25/25 as a rookie. 20/10 as a second year player. On pace for 10/10 as a third year player. Flipping great.

By Ray Flowers