Draft Day Challenge, May 14

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann
2. Joe Mauer

McCann has hit the ground a running with a .333 average, three homers and 10 RBIs in his first 21 at-bats. He’s 0-for-2 against the hot Patrick Corbin, but McCann is going so well, including 7-for-17 of late (.412), that you should be starting him regardless.

You could obviously list Mauer’s name in every one of these writeups and be fine, but he’s scalding right now. Mauer has hit .447 the past two weeks with 13 runs scored. That’s enough to overlook his “mere” .316 mark against Mr. Peavy over 29 at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. Edwin Encarnacion
2. Billy Butler

EE faces Barry Zito, in Toronto. That alone should make you interested. When you hear what he has done in nine plate appearances, your interest better be piqued: 4-for-7, two homers, eight RBIs. He also has two homers and six RBIs the past week.

Coming off a huge game (five hits, five RBIs), there is no reason to expect Butler to slow down against Jason Vargas considering he has six hits and three walks in 16 PAs against him. The end result is a .462 average, .563 OBP, two homers and five RBIs.

SECOND BASE
1. Robinson Cano
2. Neil Walker

Cano faces the all mighty King Felix Tuesday, but he’s had a ton of success in the matchup. Besides only striking out six times in 41 at-bats he’s also hit .366 with two homers and five RBIs.

Walker is back from the DL, and though he went 0-for-4 in his first game, perhaps facing Kyle Lohse will help. Walker has eight hits, to go along with five RBIs, in 20 at-bats (.400 average).

THIRD BASE
1. Ryan Zimmerman
2. Adrian Beltre

It’s borderline stupid to suggest playing anyone against Mr. Kershaw, but here goes. Zimmerman has four hits in nine at-bats against the lefty with nary a strikeout. He’s also starting to warm at the dish with a .318 mark and five RBIs the past week.

Going with two vets at the hot corner today. Beltre has hit .316 with five homers and 14 RBIs against Bartolo Colon over 57 at-bats. He owns him, or something like that. Beltre has also hist .346 with two homers and seven RBIs the past week.

SHORTSTOP
1. Ben Zobrist
2. Jayson Nix

Oh that John Lackey. Seems like many batters enjoys seeing him on the bump anymore. Zobrist is 8-for-20, a cool .400 average, with five walks against Lackey leading to a .538 OBP.

Jeter and Nunez are down and out, so Nix is the starter at short for the Yankees. He’s produced five hits in 10 at-bats against King Felix and he’s also rapped out eight hits, and six runs, over the past week of games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jose Tabata
2. Andre Ethier

Add Tabata to the list of guys that crush Mr. Lohse. Well crush might be too strong a term, but he does have 10 hits in 21 at-bats (.476), and that’s impressive. Tabata also has seven hits in his last 14 at-bats this season.

Ethier is hitting only .254 on the year, but things are looking up. He’s hit .318 the past week, and now he gets to face Dan Haren who he has only hit .426 against in 47 at-bats (two homer,s seven RBIs as well).

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Chris Tillman
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Julio Teheran
4. Scott Kazmir

Tillman is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his last four starts and he takes on the Padres Tuesday. That’s usually a good thing, facing the Padres, right?

The last three weeks Guthrie is 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He faces an Angels team that has scored just 156 runs this season, the same total as the Astros.

The Braves haven’t lost a single one of Teheran’s starts this season, even if he is only 2-0 on the season. In his last three starts he has allowed a total of six runs which is impressive even if he has only 11 Ks and has allowed 25 hits (19.1 innings). He faces the D’backs.

Kazmir is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, not to mention 21 Ks, over his last 17 innings. I picked him up this week in two leagues. Must mean he’s bound to fall on his face. He faces a Phillies team that has a .619 OPS over their last eight games.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries & Accusations

The 2013 major league baseball season is about to begin, so now is a great time to touch on two topics that are in the news on a daily basis – injured players and those that might be guilty of PED use.

WORKING WITH THE INJURY BUG

Corey Hart. Curtis Granderson. Mark Teixeira. Chase Headley. Hanley Ramirez.

All those players have significant injury concerns that will cost them one, possibly two months of the season (maybe even more in the case of Tex). The general reaction is to run away from those players immediately and not even bother looking at them on draft day. Is that the right way to look at this situation? Let’s use the case of HanRam.

Hanley was injured while playing third base in the World Baseball Classic (another reason to get rid of the event?). He tore a ligament in his right thumb and will be out of action two months as he needs surgery. Gone are his chances at being a top-25 player this season as he will miss a third of the season. So we just forget about him, right? Not so fast. Follow me here.

HanRam will likely be able to play 2/3 of the season this year. Let’s assume last year’s numbers are his baseline. Ramirez hit .257 with 24 homers, 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 steals, numbers by the way that are his worst in a full season at any point in his career. He played 157 games last season. Let’s say he plays 105 games at that level this season. If he were to do that here would be his fantasy line: .257-16-62-53-14. Those numbers still wouldn’t be awful for a shortstop if you were in a 12 or 15 team league, and they would certainly be solid for a middle infield option. But remember this salient point – while Hanley is out of action you will have an open spot in your lineup to fill. Let’s say that you roster Alexei Ramirez who you plan on starting until Ramirez returns. Let’s say that Ramirez plays 50 games for you while Hanley is shelved. Per 162 games in his career Ramirez has gone .276-17-77-77-14. How does that pro-rate over 50 games? Take a look: five homers, 24 runs, 24 RBIs, four steals

Let’s put the two players together.

HanRam (105 games): .257-16-62-53-14
Alexei (50 games): .276-5-24-24-4
TOTAL: .263-21-86-77-18

* The batting average is the .257 average of HanRam from last season and the .276 career average of Alexei giving 105 games to Hanley and 50 to Ramirez which equates to 156 hits in 594 at-bats.

That’s darn near a 20-90-80-20 effort.

Make sure you don’t discount players too quickly just cause they are injured. You still might be able to get strong numbers from a position if you are smart about what you pay for the assets that will fill those spots.

ACCUSATIONS – SHOULD THEY CHANGE YOUR OPINION?

I don’t know who will break the law tonight.

I don’t know who broke the law in the past.

I don’t know who is cheating or has cheated.

Neither do you.

I bring this up cause I get the question every single day, multiple times, about when to take Ryan Braun. My response is always the same, even if it’s misguided – he’s the #1 guy on my board. ‘But Ray, didn’t you read Jeff Passan’s piece about how major league baseball is targeting Braun in what seems to be a very aggressive and over the top manner?’ Of course I read the article. I wouldn’t have linked to it otherwise, and it does disturb me that MLB appears to be on a witch hunt to get Braun. But for now I’m not going to draft based on fear. I KNOW there are players in the majors right now who are cheating. You know it too. The problem is we don’t know who those players are. Do you pass on drafting a guy who gained 12 lbs of muscle over the winter? Do you pass on a guy because some vague/unsubstantiated rumor suggests that there is a possibility that something may have happened in the past? You certainly can choose to do that. However, as I led off this section with, none of us knows what is going on behind closed doors.

Maybe a guy is doing recreational drugs.
Maybe he boozes too much.
Maybe he beats his wife.
Maybe he’s going through a painful divorce.
Maybe his child is sick.
Maybe his parent died.
Maybe he’s got an illness that he’s hiding.

On, and on, and on…

The point is, playing the “what if” game gets us nowhere. We all have to admit that every player, every single one of them, comes with risk. If you feel Braun is too much of a risk because of the PED cloud, then pass on him. Realize though that Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. Mike Trout can’t repeat what he did last year and has one season of big league experience. Robinson Cano is without Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. Matt Kemp & Joey Votto are coming off surgery… they all have issues folks.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Are Your Expectations Reasonable?

Today I’m going to break down a handful of players an attempt to refute the prevailing wisdom about at least one aspect of their game. Hopefully the piece will be a thought provoking one, even if you disagree with my conclusions.

Robinson Cano‘s Power
Cano hit 33 homers last season, the first time he reached 30 in his career. The assumption is that Cano is now a 30 homer hitter. It’s obvious, right? He hit 30 homers last year. He plays in New York were the stadium had a Park Indices mark of 146 last year for left-handed home run hitters (46 percent above the AL average). He’s Robinson Cano. Despite all that, he’s not a 30 homer hitter. Besides the obvious fact that he’s gone deep 30 times just once in eight seasons there are a couple of salient points. (1) Cano’s 1.89 GB/FB ratio last season was a career-high (his career mark is 1.55). (2) Cano hit fewer fly balls last season than ever before at 25.8 percent. A career-high in homers despite a career-low fly ball number – is there something rotten in Denmark (a quote from Shakespeare’s Hamlet. How dare he speak of my homeland in such a way)? (3) Cano’s HR/F ratio last season was a career best 24.1 percent, a massive step up from his career 13.7 percent rate. It was also the first time he posted a mark above 17.0 percent. Unless Cano hits a lot more fly balls this season he isn’t going deep 30 times again (if he does hit more fly balls, it could end up costing him in the batting average category).

Chase Headley‘s Power
I explained all about Headley’s like power outage this season in his Player Profile.

Torii Hunter‘s Batting Average
Hunter hit .313 last season, a career best. There’s no chance he repeats it. For more, check out his Player Profile.

Can anyone save SMASH?

Matt Kemp is Injury Prone
I’ve been hearing this a lot on The Drive, my radio show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Monday through Friday, 5-8 PM EDT). I just can’t understand why people think this. In 2010-11 Kemp missed one game. One. From 2008 through 2011 he appeared in at least 155 games each season. Kemp’s total of 637 games played those four years were the 6th most in baseball and just seven behind Prince Fielder‘s leading total of 644 games. So Kemp has a couple of ailments limit him to 106 games last season and all of a sudden the 28 year old is a big time injury risk? Don’t consider me part of that camp.

Giancarlo Stanton is Worth a First Round Draft Pick
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Stanton posts the following numbers this season: .292-39-122-103-2. I’m not saying he gets there, those are huge numbers and likely unattainable (at least the average and runs scored marks), but let’s just say he does. If he does that, gets those numbers, he’ll earn about $28 or so dollars this season. That’s just not first round value folks.

Joey Votto‘s Power
I got in a Twitter discussion the past 12 hours about Votto vs. Cano, and one point that was mentioned was that Votto’s power was in decline so his value was waning. Really? The facts. (1) Votto owns a .553 career SLG. The mark was .567 last year. He had a better than career average SLG last season folks. (2) Votto had a 1.18 GB/FB ratio last year. His career mark is 1.19. (3) Votto did post a four year low fly ball rate of 32 percent, but that was just slightly off his 34.4 percent career mark. (4) Votto did hit only 14 homers in 374 at-bats last season. However, that knee injury of his crippled his ability to drive the baseball late in the year. In fact, he didn’t hit a single homer over his 87 at-bats in the second half of the season. Let’s remove those 87 at-bats for a moment. When he was healthy, the first 83 games, he went deep 14 times, hitting one long ball every 20.5 at-bats. For his career, that mark is one homer per 19.5 at-bats. Status quo here folks.

• Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. More than 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: David Ortiz

Last season David Ortiz of the Red Sox had a better batting average than Robinson Cano (.318 to .313). Ortiz had more homers than David Wright (23 to 21). Ortiz had a better OBP than Buster Posey (.415 to .408). Ortiz had a better SLG than Miguel Cabrera (.611 to .606). Despite all of that rather amazing information I’m here to tell you that I’m not at all bullish on David Ortiz for the 2013 season.

First things first. Ortiz was limited to only 90 games played last season as an Achilles issue pretty much crippled him. The Sox continue to say that Ortiz is progressing well but Achilles injuries can be very tricky to overcome, especially when the player involved is 37 years old and not exactly a bastion of physical health (I don’t think anyone would want to see Ortiz at the beach. I can unequivocally say I would like to see Kristen Kreuk at the beach though. What a beauty, maybe that’s why she was cast in the CW’s Beauty & the Beast). Here are some quotes from Ortiz just a few days ago.

“I’m not completely recovered, but I’m going to be ready to go for Opening Day,” Ortiz told WEEI.com. “… it all depends what the doctors say. They say I’m going to have my days I’m not going to feel that well. I haven’t had those yet, but I haven’t started the hard stuff. But the one thing I can tell you is I’m able to do the agility drills without any pain, which I wasn’t able to do before, so that’s a good thing.”

Do you read that and get the warm and fuzzies? I certainly don’t. I read that and in my head here is what it says.

‘My Achilles was jacked up. It’s better, but I don’t have any idea how it’s going to hold up once I really starting pushing it.’

That alone should make you weary of drafting Ortiz.

A second significant issue is his age. Dude is 37 years old.

Third, and this might be the biggest killer, he’s only eligible at the utility spot in fantasy. Do you want to lock up your UT spot with a 37 year old, injured guy who may or may not be able to help you in April?

‘But Ray, Ortiz dominated last season, you said so yourself at the start of this piece.’

Why yes I did point out some rather amazing fact with Ortiz and his 2012 performance. Let’s dig a bit deeper into that.

Ortiz hit .318, his best mark in five years and .033 points above his career average. There aren’t many 37 year olds that nearly hit .320, especially when in three of the previous four seasons they failed to hit even .275. There is also this. Here are Ortiz’ batting average marks against left-handed pitching in 2008-10: .221, .212 and .222. How did a guy who couldn’t even hit .225 against lefties for three years manage to hit .329 and .320 against them the past two years? I’ve heard of players making adjustments, but really?

Ortiz has been able to walk as many times as he has struck out that last two years, and that’s impressive. Still, for a guy who owns a 0.73 career BB/K mark doesn’t it seem a bit odd that in the past season he set a career best in K/BB (1.10 last year)? It’s also very strange to see a guy post the two lowest strikeout rates of his career at 36 and 37 years old. Has he discovered the fountain of youth?

I could continue to break down the numbers probably losing half of you to coma-like symptoms, but let me just wrap this up. Here are the reasons I don’t trust Ortiz for 2013 even if his ADP is currently sitting in the 130′s in NFBC Drafts.

(1) He’s coming off a significant Achilles injury that limited him to 90 games last season.

(2) He’s still not full recovered from an injury that first occurred in mid July of 2012. That’s seven months and he’s still not back to full health.

(3) Ortiz is 37 years old.

(4) He’s only eligible as a utility option in the fantasy game.

For me those four points weigh more heavily on my mind than anything else. I would add in that his 2012 effort is not repeatable in 2013, and with that the death knell is basically ringing for me. At the right price every player has fantasy value, but for 2013 I fear that the price for Ortiz will be prohibitive and it should preclude you from calling out his name on draft in the majority of instances.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Dan Uggla

Dan Uggla hit an unacceptable .220 last season for the Braves. Unfortunately for him, that seems to be the only number anyone ever looks at. Consider the following data points.

Were you aware that Uggla’s 19 homers were the 5th best in baseball for second baseman? That’s if we slot Ben Zobrist as a second baseman.

Were you aware that Uggla’s 78 RBIs were third at the second base position?

Were you aware that Uggla’s 86 runs scored were sixth at the second base position? He’d be fifth if we removed Zobrist.

Did you know that he was one of three second basemen with 19 homers, 75 RBIs and 85 runs scored? The others were Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill.

Were you aware that his .348 OBP was better than the marks of Dustin Pedroia (.347), Neil Walker (.342), Jason Kipnis (.335), Rickie Weeks (.328) and Brandon Phillips (.321)? Uggla also tied with Joey Votto for the NL lead with 94 walks.

Were you aware that Uggla is the only second baseman in the history of baseball, ever folks, to hit 19 homers with 78 RBIs and 84 runs scored in 7-straight seasons? Moreover, he’s only played seven seasons, and if he repeats those three numbers once again in 2013 he’ll tie the all-time career mark for second baseman with eight such seasons (Jeff Kent).

So after all of that are you really going to sit there and tell me that the reason you lost last season was because of Uggla? Are you really going to tell me he was a huge disappointment? Are you really? I’m not saying that Uggla wasn’t disappointing last season, but I’m trying to keep it “real” as the kids say. His overall season last year was still good, at least in the counting categories (he’s never been an SB threat and in three of the past four years he hasn’t hit .245). That said, his batting average, homer total and RBI marks were all career lows, so I understand the frustration, but let’s not take that to the degree that we blame him for a fantasy squads failures.

The good news is that Uggla walked 94 times, a career best number. He also posted a 0.56 BB/K ratio which was a three year best and above his 0.48 career mark. Yes he was struggling to produce hits, but at least he didn’t totally lose control of the strike zone. That gives me some hope that his batting average could rebound. That’s especially true when I see Uggla with a 20.1 percent line drive rate – a career best. Last year was actually the first time that his line drive mark was ever over 17.8 percent. Despite a career best line drive rate his BABIP of .283 was below his career .292 mark. That doesn’t make a lot of sense now does it? It also doesn’t make much sense that his homer total fell given that his 46.4 percent fly ball ratio was a three year high. The reason that mark fell was that, after 4-straight years of at least 16.0 percent in the HR/F column, the mark fell to a career worst 11.4 percent. Nothing in his track record suggests that 11.4 percent is his new level, so the odds would favor a slight uptick in homers in 2013 for Uggla.

Maybe this is a case of me favoring the old guy, but I don’t see as much downside with Uggla as others. The Braves are going to play him every day, an a worst case scenario in my mind is a repeat of last season. Let me ask you this. If Uggla were to go .245-25-85-85 in 2013 would you take that? I ask because his career average is even better than that at .253-30-89-96. He’s no spring chicken, he’ll be 33 in March, but I’m still seeing enough in this guys efforts, as frustrating as it was to watch last season, that leads me to think that he has a a good chance to once again be one of the better run producing second baseman in baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Marco Scutaro

The world found out what anyone who has been watching baseball for the past half decade could tell you – Marco Scutaro is a “professional hitter” and a very good baseball player. However, what Scutaro did in the playoffs may have pushed his fantasy outlook up to the point that he will be a disappointing add in 2013.

The facts.

Marco Scutaro played 118 games at second base, 27 at shortstop, and 15 at third base in 2012. That kind of flexibility does nothing but add to his value, substantially in some formats.

Scutaro hit .306 in 2012. Only one second basemen hit higher (Robinson Cano at .313). Not just that, Marco was one of the best hitters in baseball after the Giants added him in a deal with the Rockies as he hit an amazing .362 over 61 games (read that again). He also knocked in a rather remarkable 44 runs while scoring 40 times with the G-Men as well. That’s a 150 game pace of 108 RBIs and 98 runs scored.

Scutaro knocked in 74 runs. Six second baseman bettered that mark but only two shortstop eligible players did (Hanley Ramirez with 92, Starlin Castro with 78).

Scutaro scored 87 runs. Only four second sackers outproduced him (Cano 105, Ian Kinsler 105, Aaron Hill 93 and Ben Zobrist 88).

Scutaro then starred for the Giants hitting .328 in the playoffs including one of the hottest runs you will ever see in the NLCS when he had 14 hits in 28 at-bats (that’s .500 folks) to become a national star.

Given all of that, how can I say he will be over-drafted in 2013?

People will remember his insane week during the NLCS, the big hits throughout the playoffs, and think that Scutaro is bound for greatness. They will forget that he is 37 years old. They will forget that he has no power (he’s averaged nine homers in his eight full big league seasons). They’ll forget that he isn’t a base stealer (he did swipe nine bags in 2012 but he has just 18 steals the past three years and just one season in his career in double-digits). People will forget that the 37 year old middle infielder is coming off a career best batting average and RBI total.

Obviously it’s not all doom and gloom, and there is little reason to think that Scutaro will just fail to produce in 2013. He will produce a solid batting average thanks in part to his strong BB/K ratio (0.75 or better in 8-straight seasons) and be a nice piece in league specific setups given his obvious positional versatility. But the fact of the matter is that Scutaro doesn’t do anything that stands out in the fantasy game. Though he’s hit .299 and .306 the past two years, he owns a career .276 batting average and from 2004-2010 he never hit better than .282. He’s also coming off a career best .319 BABIP – he’s been remarkably consistent with a mark between .290 and .312 each of the previous four seasons – thanks to his insanely high 25.8 percent line drive rate. Given that he has never been better than 22.6 before in the line drive category, and that he owns a career rate of 20.7, it’s a pretty safe bet we’ll see some regression here.

So let’s say he hits .285 in 2013. In this day and age that’s a strong mark from a middle infielder. However, let’s also say he hit nine homers with six steals (his average the past six years). A .285 hitting second sacker with nine homers and six steals is NOT someone you would be comfortable starting in a 12 team mixed league, is it? I certainly wouldn’t feel good about that.

So what is Scutaro? He’s one of those players who is more valuable in real life than in fantasy. His multi position eligibility makes him a solid play in a league specific setup where his lack of pop and speed just won’t matter as much. In mixed leagues he’s nothing more than a middle infield option because of his lack of elite skills in any category. Scutaro isn’t a bad 24th round draft pick, but given that he’ll possibly go 10 rounds earlier than that in some leagues you would be wise to pass on his services in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Second Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHERS

2012 FIRST BASE

2012 SECOND BASE Top-10

1 Robinson Cano
2 Dustin Pedroia
3 Ian Kinsler
4 Brandon Phillips
5 Ben Zobrist
6 Dan Uggla
7 Howie Kendrick
8 Rickie Weeks
9 Dustin Ackley
10 Danny Espinosa

Cano is headed to the Hall of Fame – despite what happened to him in the playoffs. You read it here first (OK, maybe not). Cano hit .313 with a career best 33 homers while he knocked in 94 runs and scored 105 times. Stupendous yet again.

Pedroia hit .290 with 15 homers, 65 RBIs, 81 runs and 20 steals, a fantastic season for a mere mortal. For Pedroia though it was his worst full season effort. Give him credit for playing through injuries even if he didn’t live up to expectations.

Kinsler was one homer from going 20/20 with 100 runs scored, but for the third time in four years he hit in the .250′s. That low average seems to be a small price to pay for a guy who averages 25 homers, 81 RBIs, 115 runs ans 27 steals per 162 games in his career.

Phillips came into the year being overlooked by a few, but in the end he was what he always is – a superb play at second base. Phillips hit .281 with 18 homers, 77 RBIs, 86 runs scored and 15 steals. Ho hum, another impressive effort for the Reds’ second sacker.

Zobrist will qualify at second, outfield and shortstop next year meaning he will be one of the most sought after players in the fantasy game. For the second straight season he hit 20 homers with 70 RBIs and 85 runs scored, and for the 4th straight year he swiped at least 14 bases.

Uggla had more homers than any NL second baseman other than Aaron Hill (26) and Rickie Weeks (21) with 19, and his total of 78 RBIs was second only to Hill’s 85 in the Senior Circuit. Still, it was a down season as both numbers were career worsts. He still scored 86 runs though that .220 batting average made his overall effort lackluster given his stature in the game.

Kendrick had a great season for a second sacker in 2011 with a fantasy line of .285-18-63-86-14. He failed to match that effort in ’12 with a fantasy line of .287-8-67-57-14. He finished two homers short of a 10-10 season for a 4th straight campaign but at least he hit .287 so he didn’t kill you.

Weeks was the worst regular in baseball in the first half as he hit .199. Things improved greatly in the second half when Weeks finally remembered that he is one of the most talented second basemen in the game. Over his last 76 contests Weeks hit .261 with 13 homers, 34 RBIs, 51 runs and 10 steals. The 21 homers, 63 RBIs, 85 runs and 16 steals were solid, but there is that .230 batting average hanging over his head to diminish his value.

Ackley was the #2 selection in the 2009 Draft and the thought was that he would be able to contribute immediately with his advanced approach at the plate. Well, it didn’t happen in 2012 as he hit a sickly .226. His others numbers were passable for a middle infield option – 12 HRs, 50 RBIs, 84 runs, 13 steals – but the average was a killer. Had surgery in the offseason for an ankle issue. He’ll be fine well in advance of the start of next season.

Espinosa was a liability with his .247 average, but he was a noticeably better than Ackley in the counting categories with 17 HRs, 56 RBIs, 82 runs scored and 20 steals. Unfortunately he also struck out a vomit inducing 189 times. He’s been virtually the exact same performer in each of his two full seasons (.236-21-66-72-17).

Hit: Daniel Murphy (#14)
I was made fun of for spending too heavily on Murphy in NL LABR, but he certainly justified my support. While he didn’t do anything that really stood out (.291-6-65-62-10), his overall body of work was pretty darn solid for an NL-only play considering that he qualified at first, second and third base.

Miss: Dustin Ackley

By Ray Flowers

Review: Fanball & Sirius Show League

Two more leagues to review. And yes, the results of these final two leagues was much better than the majority of my efforts that I’ve been detailing over the past week.

FANBALL LEAGUE

For those of you who haven’t been following my work for years, and shame on you if you haven’t, I used to work at Fanball. When the company was closed I took up my mantle as a Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio employee, something that I will discuss further when we get to the next section. For now, all you need to know is that I was in a league with 11 other fellow Fanball employees in a 12 team mixed league.

Matt Wieters and Kurt Suzuki, the same tale as every league. One strong catcher and one Kurt Suzuki. On Kurt, my pathetic muse…

Mark Reynolds – sensing a theme here? Yes, I had Reynolds on all my clubs, and yes, he underperformed.

Robinson Cano was nails this year, an MVP candidate thanks to his extraordinary efforts that included a .313 average, a career best 33 homers, 94 RBIs and a career best 105 runs, a 4th straight effort of triple digits.

David Wright wasn’t at his best, but he was very, very good (.306-21-93-91-15). So much for his bat being washed up.

Ian Desmond come on down. What an excellent season (.292-25-73-72-21) for a cheap draft day add (18th round). Amazing.

Ben Zobrist did it all – yet again (.270-20-74-88-14), and he now qualifies at shortstop too. Martin Prado (.301-10-70-81-17) was a wonderful corner infield option who played all over the field like Zobrist. A great MI/CI duo. Oh, and I had Daniel Murphy (.291-6-65-62-10) in reserve at both spots.

A solid outfield, but not extremely deep. Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Adam Jones and Dexter Fowler did it all (as did Zobrist). Vernon Wells – yet another disappointing season. I should have known better.

Chris Davis went deep 33 times with 85 RBIs. It happened.

James Shields, Jered Weaver and Max Scherzer anchored this impressive staff. Brandon Morrow would have given me a dynamic foursome if he hadn’t missed two months with injury. Beyond those four, a cast of my “normal” characters – Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Nolasco, Francisco Liriano. None of them panned out.

My bullpen, as in so many leagues this year, was nails thanks to Kenley Jansen, Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo for that.

CONGRATS: David Honecker.

FINAL RESULT: 2/12. So close.

THE DRIVE SHOW LEAGUE

Each year on The Drive, my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Show (Sirius 210, XM 87, M-Th 7 PM EDT, Friday 9 PM EDT), we do a league with the listeners and producers of our show. Here is how the season went.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia and his 25 homers were nice, but Kurt Suzuki and his six weren’t. Boy did I miss on Suzuki.

Adam Dunn blasted tons of homers (41) and produced runs (96 RBIs, 87 runs scored). Too bad he hit .204.

Ian Kinsler was a steal from 20/20.

Derek Jeter… like on every other team I had, was great.

Mike Aviles was a solid MI/CI option (.250-13-60-57-14).

My boy Chase Headley, taken in the 20th round, was fantabulistic (.286-31-115-95-17). Given his draft day cost, he was one of the 10 best players in fantasy baseball this year.

Ryan Braun was a superstar (.319-41-112-108-30).

Matt Holliday was pretty darn good (.295-27-102-95).

Desmond Jennings had a solid season (13 HRs, 85 runs, 31 steals). I parlayed him into Andrew McCutchen early in the year. Yeah, that worked out well.

B.J. Upton was two homers from a 30/30 season.
Alex Rios was two steals from 25/25
Carl Crawford. Shame on me.

Braun-Holliday-McCutchen-Upton-Rios = the best outfield ever assembled. Ever.

Matt Cain dominated.
Matt Moore wasn’t as good, but he still had 175 Ks.
Tommy Hanson wasn’t even league average. Ditto Josh Beckett.
Ryan Dempster was solid (12 wins, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).

Tyler Clippard turned in 32 saves.
Huston Street was dynamic when on the hill (1.85 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 23/24 on saves).
Sergio Romo, dominating again.
Brett Myers racked up 19 saves before he was dealt to the White Sox.
Brian Wilson blew out his arm.
Scott Baker blew out his arm.

How did I save this staff? The additions of Chris Capuano (12-12, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 162 Ks) certainly helped. Jarrod Parker also was on the club to add depth (13-8, 3.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 140 Ks).

CONGRATS: To Me. Finally.

FINAL RESULT: 1/12.

By Ray Flowers

Milestones

The following bits of info were posted on the BaseballGuys Twitter account. See what you’re missing if you aren’t following along…

@MLB_PR: All-time doubles leader Tris Speaker had 445 through his age-32 season. Albert Pujols has 505.

@ESPNStatsInfo: Albert Pujols has 50 doubles this yr. He is the first player in MLB history to have 3 seasons of 30+ HR and 50+ doubles.

@MLB_PR: Robinson Cano and Rogers Hornsby are the only 2B ever to have consecutive seasons with 80+ extra base hits.

@GregJohnsMLB: Felix was Cy Young contender heading into Sept., but in last 6 starts went 0-4 with 6.62 ERA and 53 hits in 35.1 IP.

@richardjustice: A’s rookies have 53 victories. According to Elias, this is the most victories for rookies on one team in MLB history.

@richardjustice: Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker, A’s are 1st team to have 2 rookies win 13 games since the ’52 Dodgers (Black, Loes).

Some of my own thoughts…

Albert Pujols is simply amazing. It hasn’t been the season he has hoped for, and it will go down as his worst season ever, but he’s still hitting .289 with 30 homers, 105 RBIs and 85 runs scored. This means he is polishing off his 12th straight season of 30 homers and 99 RBIs. That ties him with Jimmie Foxx for the second longest such streak in baseball history behind the 13-year run of Alex Rodriguez. Oh, and the other two times that Pujols had 50 doubles, he hit 51 each year, he blasted 43 and 46 homers (2003-04).

Robinson Cano is on his way to Cooperstown. Hitting .308 with 31 homers, 88 RBIs and 102 runs scored, he’s a four category fantasy superstar. Moreover, each of the past four years he hit at least 25 homers with 85 RBIs and 100 runs scored. That four year run is the longest by any second sacker in baseball history (Ryne Sandberg did it three years in a row from 1990-92). Cano is also a double machine. With a career-high tying 48 doubles this year, Cano has reached 40 doubles six times in his last seven seasons missing only in 2008 when he hit 35 (his career-low for a season is 34 doubles). Only one other second sacker hit 40 doubles in 4-straight years – Jeff Kent in 1999-2002.

September cost Felix Hernandez. His terrible final month pushed his ERA to 3.09 on the year, For some reason as well, the guy just can’t get the Angels out. Take a look at his career numbers against the club from Southern California: 6-12, 4.07 ERA in 30 starts. “I don’t know what kind of approach they take,” he said. “Don’t ask me. Ask them. They hit me pretty good.”

As noted, Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker both have had a lot of success this season. In fact, their numbers are virtually identical if you look at their fantasy production.

Milone: 13-10, 3.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 137 Ks in 190 IP
Parker: 13-8, 3.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 140 Ks in 181.1 IP

Milone was tremendous when pitching at home as he went 7-5 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 15 starts. Parker tied for the team in in wins and led the club in ERA and Ks and WHIP (Bartolo Colon was better at 1.21 but he only threw 152.1 innings on the year falling short of the 162 needed to qualify for the ERA title).

A few more notes for fun.

Manny Banuelos, one of the elite prospects on the hill, will likely miss all of the 2013 season as the Yankees announced he will need to undergo Tommy John surgery. Just goes to show you why it is so dangerous count on young arms when building a dynasty club. You have to build around those young arms of course, but give me an Arroyo or Harang type any day over a prospect that could be something at some point.

Lance Berkman is unlikely to play again because of his knee issue. His career could be over.

Since Gio Gonzalez will skip his last start, Tom Gorzelanny will take his spot Tuesday against the Phillies, Gonzalez will become the first pitcher in baseball history to win 21 games in a season while throwing less than 200-innings (199.1 is his total this season).

C.J. Wilson admitted that he will have offseason elbow surgery to remove bone spurs that have been bothering him for a couple of months. Now we finally find an explanation that fits to explain the pathetic work that Wilson has offered his owners the past couple of months. After a 2.43 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his first 18 starts he barely made it to the finish line with a 5.54 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over his last 16 outings. Use that slow finish to your benefit next year on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what they offer, and shame on you for not knowing, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Carlos Lee vs. John Lannan: Lee is hitting, get this, .538 over his last seven games with 14 hits in 26 at-bats. You simply cannot be hotter than that. He also faces Lannan Friday night who he has hit .474 against in 19 at-bats. Seems like a match made in heaven.

A.J. Pierzynski vs. Zack Greinke: The old reliable matchup. AJP has hit .408 with two homers in 49 at-bats against the new Angel. While you’ll want to start the backstop you’ll want to avoid his slugging teammate Paul Konerko who has only nine hits in 62 at-bats (.145) against Greinke.

All Yankees vs. Kevin Millwood: I’m only sorta kidding. Look at these numbers though.

Nick Swisher .357 (42 ABs)
Mark Teixeira .379 (injured)
Raul Ibanez .373 (51 ABs)
Ichiro Suzuki .395 (81 ABs)
Robinson Cano .394 (33 ABs)
Andruw Jones .421 (19 ABs)

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Matt Harrison vs. Royals: (1) Harrison has a 12-6 record and 3.19 ERA this year. (2) He’s pitched slightly better on the road (3.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). (3) He’s facing off against Jeremy Guthrie. Seems like a solid start to me even though he’s allowed nine runs in his last two outings.

Tim Hudson vs. Astros: Hudson has long had success against the Astros with a 1.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 4-0 record against the club. He’s also won his last three starts to improve to 10-4, and he’s just not beating himself as he’s walked just nine batters in his last seven starts.

Matt Moore vs. Orioles: Moore has allowed four runs over his last three starts, and the last two times he’s taken the hill he’s struck out 13 batters while walking just two. He’s also gone 5-straight starts without allowing a long ball and he’s pitched a bit better at home this year as well (3.61 ERA, 129 WHIP in 12 starts) than on the road.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Robinson Cano vs. Felix Hernandez: Dan the difficult looking matchup. Cano has hit King Felix to the tune of a .378 average and 1.007 OPS over 37 at-bats as he has gone deep twice.

Aramis Ramirez vs. Adam Wainwright: In 47 at-bats Aramis has clearly gotten the better of the Cards’ righty with 19 hits, including seven doubles and two homers, leading to a .404 average and 1.142 OPS. Overall Aramis also has 10 hits in his last 22 at-bats (.455).

Neil Walker vs. Mike Leake:  Over the last month Walker is hitting .351 with six homers, 18 RBIs and 15 runs scored as the second most valuable fantasy performer at second base (only Brandon Phillips has been better). Walker has also killed it vs. Leake hitting .368 with a homer and eight RBIs in 19 at-bats.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Wei-Yin Chen vs. Rays: Chen made five starts in July and four of them were “quality” as he racked up 41 Ks, with a 3.15 K/BB ratio and 3.44 ERA, over 36.2 innings. He faces a Rays club that has produced just eight hits off him in two starts (.200/.319/.300 slash line against him).

Doug Fister vs. the Indians: Fister had a nice month of July that included a 3.60 ERA and 37 Ks in 40 innings on the bump. He also won four games for the Tigers and has allowed a total of six runs in his last four starts while picking up an impressive total of 31 Ks.

Hiroki Kuroda vs. Mariners: You’re pretty safe pitching anyone against the Mariners, but when it’s Kuroda, it makes even more sense. Not only has he held current Mariner’s batters to a .231 average an a .645 OPS, he’s also rolling having allowed just three runs over his last three starts and he’s also gone at least seven innings in each of his last four starts.

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By Ray Flowers