Player Profile: Marco Scutaro

The world found out what anyone who has been watching baseball for the past half decade could tell you – Marco Scutaro is a “professional hitter” and a very good baseball player. However, what Scutaro did in the playoffs may have pushed his fantasy outlook up to the point that he will be a disappointing add in 2013.

The facts.

Marco Scutaro played 118 games at second base, 27 at shortstop, and 15 at third base in 2012. That kind of flexibility does nothing but add to his value, substantially in some formats.

Scutaro hit .306 in 2012. Only one second basemen hit higher (Robinson Cano at .313). Not just that, Marco was one of the best hitters in baseball after the Giants added him in a deal with the Rockies as he hit an amazing .362 over 61 games (read that again). He also knocked in a rather remarkable 44 runs while scoring 40 times with the G-Men as well. That’s a 150 game pace of 108 RBIs and 98 runs scored.

Scutaro knocked in 74 runs. Six second baseman bettered that mark but only two shortstop eligible players did (Hanley Ramirez with 92, Starlin Castro with 78).

Scutaro scored 87 runs. Only four second sackers outproduced him (Cano 105, Ian Kinsler 105, Aaron Hill 93 and Ben Zobrist 88).

Scutaro then starred for the Giants hitting .328 in the playoffs including one of the hottest runs you will ever see in the NLCS when he had 14 hits in 28 at-bats (that’s .500 folks) to become a national star.

Given all of that, how can I say he will be over-drafted in 2013?

People will remember his insane week during the NLCS, the big hits throughout the playoffs, and think that Scutaro is bound for greatness. They will forget that he is 37 years old. They will forget that he has no power (he’s averaged nine homers in his eight full big league seasons). They’ll forget that he isn’t a base stealer (he did swipe nine bags in 2012 but he has just 18 steals the past three years and just one season in his career in double-digits). People will forget that the 37 year old middle infielder is coming off a career best batting average and RBI total.

Obviously it’s not all doom and gloom, and there is little reason to think that Scutaro will just fail to produce in 2013. He will produce a solid batting average thanks in part to his strong BB/K ratio (0.75 or better in 8-straight seasons) and be a nice piece in league specific setups given his obvious positional versatility. But the fact of the matter is that Scutaro doesn’t do anything that stands out in the fantasy game. Though he’s hit .299 and .306 the past two years, he owns a career .276 batting average and from 2004-2010 he never hit better than .282. He’s also coming off a career best .319 BABIP – he’s been remarkably consistent with a mark between .290 and .312 each of the previous four seasons – thanks to his insanely high 25.8 percent line drive rate. Given that he has never been better than 22.6 before in the line drive category, and that he owns a career rate of 20.7, it’s a pretty safe bet we’ll see some regression here.

So let’s say he hits .285 in 2013. In this day and age that’s a strong mark from a middle infielder. However, let’s also say he hit nine homers with six steals (his average the past six years). A .285 hitting second sacker with nine homers and six steals is NOT someone you would be comfortable starting in a 12 team mixed league, is it? I certainly wouldn’t feel good about that.

So what is Scutaro? He’s one of those players who is more valuable in real life than in fantasy. His multi position eligibility makes him a solid play in a league specific setup where his lack of pop and speed just won’t matter as much. In mixed leagues he’s nothing more than a middle infield option because of his lack of elite skills in any category. Scutaro isn’t a bad 24th round draft pick, but given that he’ll possibly go 10 rounds earlier than that in some leagues you would be wise to pass on his services in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Marco Scutaro

Some players get little respect. You know, they are the “glue” type players that you roster in the middle to late rounds that end up filling up the stat sheet rather nicely by the time that October rolls around even if no one really batted an eye when you called out their name at the draft table. One of those guys is Marco Scutaro. He’s never someone you target, and most of the time when you call out his name it’s merely because there really aren’t any better options out there, but there are certainly worse guys to target late as a middle infield option than the Rockies new second baseman.

Let me begin right where I just left off. Scutaro, who played just two games at second last season but has played regularly there during his big league career, will be the Rockies’ starting second baseman in 2012 (thanks Troy Tulowitzki). This is great news for Scutaro because he will be able to add second base to his shortstop qualification. When you’re thinking about grabbing a guy in the later rounds having positional flexibility like this is just another level of added value. You don’t have to take two players as a backup to your second baseman and shortstop, you can simply add a guy Scutaro to give you some depth.

Second, one of the keys with Scutaro is that he will be the Rockies new second baseman. Coors Field doesn’t play like it once did now that they humidor the hell out of the baseballs up there (some conspiracy theorists still maintain that the Rockies use a different set of “dead” baseball’s when the visiting team is at-bat), but at the same time it’s still a great place for a hitter to call home. Scutaro isn’t a home run hitter, his two best seasons are 11 and 12, but that misses the point. Scutaro is a strong extra base hitter who has rapped out 30 doubles in three seasons in his career while averaging 33 the past three years. The last three years Coors has been the best park in the NL for doubles, 22 percent greater than the league average park according to Park Indices. Scutaro should be hitting plenty of two baggers this season.

Scutaro has hit .270 for his career, an over his last three years he has hit at least .275 each time. He’s a good bet to keep that up in 2012, not just because of his home yard, but because of his approach. For his career Scutaro owns a 0.80 BB/K mark, well above the big league average of about 0.50, and the last time that number dipped below 0.75 for Scutaro was when George Bush Jr. was president (2004). He won’t damage your teams’ batting average and he has at least an even shot of actually helping in the category.

Since he became an every day player in 2008, Scutaro has been a solid performer. Even including his effort last season in which he was only able to accrue 395 at-bats, here is what an average 5×5 season has looked like for Scutaro since 2008: .280-9-58-82-8. Again, that’s nothing special, but those are replacement level stuff that you can get on the cheap at the draft table. Would you rather roster guys like Zack Cozart or Jason Bartlett late? I know I wouldn’t.

Scutaro doesn’t do anything that stands out, but I wouldn’t be drafting Scutaro to win me a league. I’d be drafting Scutaro as a player who, given 500 at-bats, is going to be a great return on my investment. He’ll qualify at both middle infield spots, likely hit at least .280, score a bunch of runs, and knock in enough to be worthy of strong consideration in deep mixed leagues as a middle infielder. Don’t forget about the little fella when your draft moves into the 20′s – Scutaro is someone you can fill your roster out with on the cheap who will end up providing you more than passable numbers if he can stay healthy.

Click here to get your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Fowler vs. Jackson

I asked a simple question Wednesday on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter Page – for 2012, would you rather have Austin Jackson or Dexter Fowler. To my surprise the answer was Jackson with about 70 percent of the vote. Am I in the wrong in thinking that Fowler will be the better fantasy performer in 2012 (you can find my rankings of both outfielders in the BBGuys 2012 Draft Guide)? Here are my thoughts on this battle royale.

2011 fantasy stats:

Fowler: .266-5-45-84-12 in 481 at-bats

Jackson: .249-10-45-90-22 in 591 at-bats

If we allow Fowler another 110 at-bats to match Jackson’s total, an assume he would continue to perform at the same rate he flashed over 481 at-bats, his line would end up being .266-6-55-103-15. All of a sudden that gap between the two shrinks, it not disappears, does it not? Moreover, by “non-fantasy measures,” Fowler was easily the better performer last season.

Fowler had a .363 OBP, .432 SLG and .796 OPS
Jackson had a .317 OBP, .374 SLG and .690 OPS

So can you see why I was so shocked that Jackson, resoundingly, was the choice amongst my Twitter followers. Fowler bettered Jackson last year in the following categories: doubles, triples, walks, AVG/OBP/SLG. Fowler also tied Jackson in RBI and scored just six fewer runs in 28 fewer games played. So tell me folks, what is the big draw with Jackson? I bet it has more to do with his team than it does with Jackson.

The Tigers will boast the top power hitting duo in baseball in Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. I don’t think anyone is going to dispute that fact. If those two guys do their normal thing in the #3 and #4 slots in the lineup, whoever on the Tigers is asked to fill the leadoff role and hit in the second hole are bound to score a ton of runs. That’s sound reasoning. It’s also a pretty strong bet that Jackson will hit atop the Tigers’ order, not because he should hit there mind you, but because they don’t really have a better option (their entire starting lineup may not steal more bases than Michael Bourn). Keep this in mind. Jackson is a strikeout machine. You can live with that when a guy is hitting 30 homers, but when he’s batting at the top of the order and has 14 homers in his career that guy shouldn’t be striking out in more than a quarter of all of his at-bats. Due mostly to that K-rate, Jackson will have a very difficult time reaching the .293 batting average he posted in 2010 (that mark was almost entirely the result of his major league leading, an unsustainable, .396 BABIP. Predictably that mark regressed to .340 last season and with it his batting average receded). Not only does the fact that he may struggle to hit .271, his career average, weigh Jackson down, you should also pay attention to what it does to his ability to get on base. Through two seasons Jackson has n OBP of .331 a mere five points above the big league average of .326. Simply put, Jackson doesn’t have the skills to hit at the top of anyone’s batting order.

On the other hand, Fowler does possess the skills to bat leadoff. Not only does he have a substantially better OBP (career .355), Fowler also has ample speed (even though he swiped only 25 bags the last two years he stole 27 bases in 2009). Fowler also showed marked improvement in the second half last season after his demotion to the minors as he hit .288 with a .880 OPS over his last 68 games. Jackson will never post an .880 OPS. Fowler also got on base at a .381 clip in the second half leading to 51 runs scored over 68 games. Add in that he’s in the best shape of his life after training this offseason with Jason Giambi and Troy Tulowitzki, an I’m certainly taking Dexter Fowler over Austin Jackson on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 6th, 2011

Things are really heating up at the Winter Meetings, and it appears that the Marlins are plenty serious about being the story to emerge from the festivities. But before I get to that, we had a couple of deals take place in the last 24 hours as pitchers are the target of seemingly every team.

Sergio Santos was an excellent bullpen arm for the White Sox last year. After every other White Sox bullpen arm was seemingly given a shot to handle 9th ining duties, Santos stepped up and solidified the role on his way to 30 saves in 36 chances. He walks too many batters, 4.12 per nine innings last year, but it’s easy to forgive that when you look over at the K/9 column and see 13.07. Santos signed a deal with the White Sox that will pay him only $8.25 million the next three years, though there are three other team options after that for $6 million, $8 million and $8.75 million (basically his team has him under control for 6-years at a cost of about $31 million). That “cheap” cost made him an excellent option to deal for the White Sox, and they did just that Tuesday sending him to the Blue Jays for minor leaguer Nestor Molina (there is no truth to the rumor that he is related to Nestor The Long Eared Christmas Donkey). White Sox fans will be furious at this deal since Molina is likely a couple of years away from being a major player, but after a year at Single and Double-A in which he posted a 12-3 record, 2.21 ERA 10.22 K/9 an a stupendous 9.25 K/BB mark, the future is bright for the  22 year old righty.

Kevin Slowey is someone I’ve long been in the corner of (check out the Player Profile I wrote back on March 28th, 2011). However, two issues have precluded him from reaching the heights that I think he can. (1) The guy just can’t stay healthy. In two of the last three seasons he’s failed to reach 100-innings. (2) He gives up way too many fly balls (48 percent of batted balls in his career), and they leave the yard at a near crippling rate (1.42 homers per nine innings). Therefore, the Rockies move to deal for him makes little sense to me. The Rockies think he can be a solid #4 or #5 starter, but given the enviornment in Colorado Slowey seems like a horrible addition given his long ball woes.

Aaron Harang had a decent season with the Padres going 14-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. However, the San Diego born righty, who also went to San Diego State, wasn’t able to work out a deal with the Padres. No matter, He’ll end up merely needing to rent a U-Haul truck to move his stuff to Los Angeles after he agreed to a 2-year deal with the Dodgers ($12 million).

Albert Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and the Marlins and the Cardinals are the two teams bidding most heavily for his services. Reports are circulating, including one by Bob Nightingale, that the Marlins have extended an offer to Pujols worth more than $200 million. The Cardinals are still in the mix, but it’s growing more likely by the minute that Pujols’ decision won’t have to be about one team outspending the other, it will be about where he wants to play for the next decade.

Andrew Bailey is on the market, though the Athletics asking price is apparently so high that Bailey may as well not be available. So far it seems like one of those situation where the A’s are saying ‘if you overpay we’ll give him to you’ but few teams seems willing to meet the exorbinant price the A’s are asking for in return for their often dominating closer who is under their control through 2014.

Jimmy Rollins was thought to be almost as good as gone from the Phillies 36 hours ago. There is now some growing optimism that he could return, though it still seems like the club is unwilling to go 5-years on a deal like Rollins wants. If the Phils are unable to come to an agreement they will look to add Aramis Ramirez while at the same time moving Placido Polanco to free up some cash. If Rollins returns, look for the Phils to go with Polanco as their third baseman and pass on Ramirez.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profiles: Chris Iannetta & Ramon Hernandez

The landscape of catching was changed on Wednesday night as two of the more imposing backstops ever to wield the lumber switched teams. OK, I couldn’t type that with a straight face, so I had to stop before it got out of control. The truth of the matter is that a couple of catchers changed teams on Wednesday, and while neither of them is a star, both bring solid bats to their new homes and provide fantasy leaguers decent options after the elite hitting backstops are off the map.

Angels Trade: Tyler Chatwood
Rockies Trade: Chris Iannetta

First, and most obvious, is the fact that the Angels had a catcher that could sock the ball in Mike Napoli, and they soured on him and let him go in one of the worst decisions of last offseason. As a result of that terrible decision the Angels had hideously producing backstops with a bat in their hands last year (in fact, their catchers in 2011 hit .192 with a .252 OBP). Iannetta will certainly help to give the Angels a bat that can cause some damage on offense.

Iannetta has holes in his swing as his .235 career batting average would attest to. However, he does a couple of things very well. First off he powers the ball. Per 400 at-bats in his career Iannetta has averaged 18 homers. Only nine catcher eligible players hit 18 homers last season. Iannetta has never recorded even 350 at-bats in a season as the Rockies stubbornly refused to give him that much work – he had 345 at-bats last year – but all he needs is a few extra games at DH to make 400 a possibility.

Iannetta’s other skill, overlooked by some teams, is his ability to get on base. The owner of a .357 career OBP, Chris posted a mark of .370 in 2011, better than all but two catchers who had at least 450 at-bats (Alex Avila at .389 and Victor Martinez at .380). As a result of all the walks he also owns a career 0.64 BB/K mark. Teams should realize that his power/patience approach at the dish is ideal for a catcher.

The biggest concern with Iannetta is two-fold. (1) Will Mike Scioscia play him on a consistent basis? It’s not like he’s ever stuck with just one catcher and actually let him play since Bengie Molina left town. (2) Will Iannetta be able to hit away from Coors Field? Iannetta posted a .587 OPS on the road last year (.975 at Coors), and for his career his OPS is .162 points lower on the road (.707).

Rockies Sign: Ramon Hernandez
2-years, $6.5 million

The Rockies covered themselves by signing Ramon Hernandez to fill the gap behind the dish when Iannetta was dealt to the Angels. On the downside of his career at 35 years old, Hernandez can still be a productive offensive performer if managed properly.

The last time Ramon had 325 at-bats was 2008, but he can still do some things with the bat. After hitting in the .250′s 3-straight years (2007-09) Hernandez bounced back to hit .297 in 2010. Unfortunately he hit only seven homers in 313 at-bats. In 2011 both facets of his game were on display as he hit .282 with 12 homers. Still, there are some concerns.

Most obvious on the list of worries is Ramon’s age. Catchers have a habit of breaking down rather quickly when they hit their mid 30′s. If managed properly this is less of an issue, but it also means his fantasy value will be kept low because he won’t be playing every day. Second on the list for Hernandez is the fact that his GB-rate continues to grow. The last two years it has been over 51 percent. Even at Coors Field you aren’t going to hit a lot of long balls if more than half of your batted balls are killing grass.

OUTLOOK

If I was ranking these guys right now I’d have Iannetta ahead of Hernandez. I wouldn’t be shocked if Ramon had a better batting average than Iannetta, but I’d also be fairly surprised if his at-bat total was within 75 to 100 of Iannetta. As such, Iannetta figures to be a much better play in the counting categories in 2012. I also won’t be overly surprised if people end up drafting Hernandez a bit ahead of Iannetta because of the Coors Field factor making Iannetta a slightly better value. The bottom line is that in standard mixed leagues both guys seem like solid options as a second catcher.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ty Wigginton

Ty Wigginton is like a Honda Civic. A Civic isn’t flashy and it certainly doesn’t impress your date when you roll up to her house in it, yet it’s affordable, always gets you there on time and is as trustworthy an option as there is on the road. That’s Wigginton in a nutshell. He isn’t gonna haul 6,000 lbs., he isn’t going to run to 60 mph in 4.6 seconds, and he certainly isn’t gonna boost season ticket sales, but at the end of the day Wigginton just gets it done. I bring this all up because Wigginton was dealt to the Phillies on Sunday as the Rockies seem intent to give Ian Stewart yet another shot to prove himself at third base (or perhaps they might just turn to Brandon Wood, Chris Nelson or Jordan Pacheco until AFL MVP Nolan Arenado is ready to take over at the hot corner?). Wigginton was dealt, along with cash, for a Player To Be Named Late and/or cash. So why would the Rockies want to rid themselves of their Honda Civic?

Wigginton can play all over the field. He suited up for 27 games in the outfield, 36 at first base, and 68 at third base in 2011. Versatility like that always makes Ty a fine final offensive player on a fantasy club. It also enables him to see a lot of playing time as he can fill in at multiple spot. Given that Placido Polanco and Ryan Howard are both coming off surgeries, the addition of Wigginton makes a lot of sense for the Phils (Placido should be ready for opening day, but most reports suggest that Howard could miss most of April).

What about performance?

Wigginton isn’t going to steal many bases, he has only 41 thefts in his career, but he did swipe eight in 2011, a seven year high. Still, he’s not a speed demon. Wigginton also isn’t a batting average option of renown. Ty has a career batting average of .265, and the last two years he’s failed to hit even .250 (.248 and .242) after a 4-year run of hitting at least .273. The main reason for the drop the last two years is that his hit rate, in the .290′s for his career, has left him with a BABIP of .270 and .271 the past two years. I’m inclined to think that it’s because Ty has lost that little bit extra with his bat speed, something that may be show in the fact that his K-rate has gone up a bit the past two years. He could see some improvement with his BABIP, but it’s not a certainty and would likely be a mild bump.

So I’m painting a portrait of a guy who just isn’t very exciting, but that’s because I’ve left out his best trait – his power. Ty has hit 22 or more homers in four of the past six years, an in five of those six years he’s hit at least 15. Given that he’s averaged just 462 at-bats those six years, his average homer total of 20 a season is pretty darn solid, especially from a guy who qualifies at three positions. Ty has seen some slight regression in his HR/FB the past two years after a peak from 2005-08, but his marks of 12.5 and 13.2 percent the past two years are virtually identical to his career 12.7 mark. He should be fine in terms of the power output in 2012.

So what do you do with Wigginton? At the moment it certainly doesn’t seem like he will have a spot in the every day lineup with the Phillies, so expecting 462 at-bats from him this season is likely asking for too much. As such, Wigginton makes for an ideal option in NL only leagues but a bit of a stretch in mixed leagues unless you are in a 15 teamer. He’ll be solid when he plays, and that flexibility certainly makes him a valuable add in the right circumstance, but don’t go a reaching for the Phillies newest addition.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September17, 2011

(1) Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens both out for the first round of the playoffs if the Braves make it?

(2) Hanley Ramirez has shoulder surgery.

(3) Joe Mauer done for the year. Is Justin Morneau to follow?

(4) Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in danger of being shut down?

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Rafael Betancourt

Right off the top I’ll make a confession – this review will likely only truly apply to those of you are in an NL-only leagues. It’s not that Rafael Betancourt doesn’t have the skills to help in a mixed league, he without question does, it’s just that as a middle reliever there is little chance that he will “break through” in 2011 because he isn’t likely to get a chance to rack up saves even if Huston Street goes down with an injury for the Rockies. Still, I hope you’ll read the piece even if you only play in mixed leagues as I’m sure you will be shocked by the historical nature of Rafael’s work.

Let’s start at the end.

As I mentioned, Betancourt isn’t likely to get too many chances to close games for the Rockies. Not only do they have a 9th inning ace in Huston Street, there is also the fact that, historically, few have been worse in the 9th inning than Betancourt. It’s almost like he’s Superman and the 9th inning is his Kryptonite. The numbers are a bit skewed because blown saves can obviously be picked up before the 9th inning, but in his career Betancourt has 19 saves and 29 blown saves, and that’s ugly. There is also the fact that the club has Matt Belisle, Matt Lindstrom and Franklin Morales to take over the 9th if something happens to Street. This is the main reason Betancourt isn’t a sexy option in mixed leagues.

However, when we talk about skills, few can better what this Venezuelan born hurler can bring to the dinner table.

Career: 3.22 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.53 K/9, 4.36 K/BB

Dominating marks, especially the more than one K per inning thing and the double the big league average  K/BB ratio which is fantabulistic. Actually, Betancourt’s career performance is so good that it is historic in nature, and when I say historic I mean he is on the cusp of doing something that no pitcher in the history of the game has been able to accomplish.

I look at his career GB/FB ratio of 0.57 and it causes me to be as nervous as a bikini at the thought of being worn by someone on The Biggest Loser, but Betancourt continues to be able to keep his HR/F ratio 20 percent below the big league average at 7.7 percent, and that helps to offset his fly ball tendencies. Plus, there are also two other factors that seem to mitigate against that concern.

First, the guy has been dynamic since he joined the Rockies. Here are his numbers over 104 appearances:

3.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 12.11 K/9, 9.08 K/BB in 87.2 innings
You put up numbers like that for a decade and they make a plaque for you in Cooperstown.

Second, Betancourt has been a stud hurler even when pitching in Colorado.
4.05 ERA, 1,09 WHIP, 11.19 K/9, 8.29 K/BB in 46.2 innings
The guy is just locked in right now and operating at an elite level.

As I said at the start, all of this and bowl of Cinnamon Toast Crunch will get you a bowl of CTC and a moderate performer in mixed leagues. But if your weapon of choice is an NL-only league, then you’ve found a bullpen ace to target in Betancourt.

By Ray Flowers

Decisions Contemplated and Made

Why can’t one of the leagues all-time great sluggers find a job, and have the Rockies pulled the string on a series of moves that will preclude the club from being a contender for the next decade?

The Plight of Jim Thome

Jim Thome is a masher of historic proportions. He has 589 homers, the 8th most in big league history, and though he hit “only” 25 homers last season that was in a mere 276 at-bats. Given that pace, if he had come to the plate for 500 at-bats he would have hit 45 homers. Clearly the old man, he’s 39, can still mash it. Thome was exceptionally effective against righties last season hitting .302 with 19 homers and a 1.154 OPS in just 189 at-bats, a pace of 50 homers per 500 at-bats. Honestly, he was every bit the equal of Albert Pujols and last season when facing righties.

So where does all that leave him for 2011? It leaves him unemployed. The Twins remain interested in bringing back the slugger, but Thome is looking for one last substantial paycheck after playing last season for $1.7 million. He won’t be giving the Twins a hometown discount to return. This has left the door open for someone to capitalize, and it looks like the Rangers have come out guns a blazin’. I have a hard time figuring out where the at-bats would come from though. Here is what I see.

The addition of Adrian Beltre to play third base moves Michael Young to DH. Young could find at-bats literally at every position on the infield (including first base), but for now Young is slotted as the primary DH. That leaves first base in the hands of Mitch Moreland, and with rumors floating around that the Rangers wouldn’t include him in a deal to get Matt Garza, I would be hard pressed to think they really want to platoon Moreland in 2011 even if he did struggle in limited work against lefties last year (.200 in 20 ABs). And you can forget about David Murphy getting 400 at-bats unless someone is hurt. The Rangers seemingly don’t have a spot in the every day lineup for Thome – though that doesn’t mean he couldn’t match last years total with the Twins of 276 at-bats. What I do know is that if he is added to the club, the Rangers would be forced to move people around a lot, and that isn’t an ideal situation for a team with championship aspirations. Having that flexibility with positions is wonderful, but players like to find their comfort zones and really don’t want to be in and out of the lineup, using a different glove, every day.

Have the Rockies Been Financially Wise?

I don’t often spend time talking about baseball and money, though I did last month in The End of Baseball? I’m not going to bash the Yankees and the Red Sox today (for a change). Instead, I want to touch on the business model that the Rockies are currently operating under.

The Rockies have signed the two cornerstone’s of their franchise to deals worth more than $214 million as Troy Tulowitzki signed a 7-year, $134.5 million contract extension while Carlos Gonzalez re-upped for 7-years and $80 million. That is a whopping amount of cash which raises the very real possibility that the Rockies may not be able to put forth a contender for the next decade.

Last year the Rockies spent $84 million on their payroll. Though it will take a few years for the massive dollars of Tulo and CarGo to really kick in, the duo will be paid about $30 million a year over the life of their contracts. That number rises even further as the deals reach the later years as they will make $36 million in 2015, $37 million in 2016 and $40 million in 2017. Even if the club raises the payroll to $100 million in three to five years as expected, their duo will be sucking up nearly 40 percent of the payroll. To draw a parallel, the Yankees would have had to of spent $83 million on Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia to have devoted 40 percent of their team salary to two guys in 2010 (they actually made about $57 million). The bottom line is that you simply cannot have 40 percent of your payroll invested in just two players – it just doesn’t work. If either player is injured, or fails to perform like they did in 2010, the Rockies will be sunk. The reason is that so much of their resources are tied up in two players that they will be unable to substantially increase their payroll if they have other holes to fill on the roster. Will they be able to sign that veteran backup for $4 million, or will they have to go with the $500,000 youngster with only 112 big league at-bats? Will they be able to bring in a setup man of note if they have only $900,000 to spend on a bullpen arm? Of course they wont.

I wish the Rockies all the luck in the world. Denver is a magnificent town, that ballpark is a jewel, and it seems like Tulo and Gonzalez both have a shot to be All-Star’s for the duration of their deals. Still, for a team that will never be able to financially compete with the big boys I think this was a move that they may end up regretting. Take it from a San Francisco Giants’ fan that watched his team, for years, be hamstring by the contract of superstar Barry Bonds – one major contract can be tough to overcome when you don’t have endless resources, let alone two.

By Ray Flowers

December Hot Stove

Here is a look around baseball with some exceedingly witty commentary from yours truly.

Quick Hitters

Lance Berkman – The Athletics seem to have him in their sites. He met with the club earlier this week, and a 1-year deal, similar to the kind that Ben Sheets signed with the club last year, seems to be coming down the pipe (Lance wants something like $8 million a year). Don’t count out the Rockies though – there is mutual interest there, though there may not be enough dough.

Ian Desmond – Apparently the Nationals are considering moving Desmond to help add depth to their starting rotation. He led baseball with 34 errors at short, but his future is very bright as he was one run from being one of only 22 players to hit 10 homers, with 60 RBI, 60 runs and 15 steals in 2010 and that was in his first big league season. Why trade that?

Adam Dunn – He wanted 4-years and $60 million – he got 4-years, $56 million from the White Sox. I have no issue with those numbers, not in the least. Neither should anyone else. I know he can’t play defense, but since 2004 Dunn is second in baseball with 282 homers, ninth in RBI (709), 15th in runs (657), fourth in extra base hits (496) and he’s sporting a .914 OPS which is higher than Hanley Ramirez (.905), Chase Utley (.901) and David Wright (.899) in the same time frame.

Zack Greinke – If he ends up with the Yankees that will be the worst match since the Yankees brought in Javier Vazquez – twice. Greinke would crumble in New York and if I was a praying man I would speak to the man upstairs that this proposed deal doesn’t come to fruition.

Kevin Gregg – He declined the Blue Jays offer of arbitration which will lead to the Jays getting a supplemental draft pick. Gregg should earn a multi-year deal from someone. You may not be aware of it, but Gregg is one of only seven pitchers in baseball with at least 23 saves in each of the past four years, and his total of 121 saves in that time is 11th overall.

J.P. Howell – He’ll be unavailable to start the 2011 season after shoulder surgery in May (he says he could be back by mid-April), and he hasn’t thrown a big league pitch since 2009. While its premature to think his career might be in jeopardy, you have to be concerned for the lefties future. I wish him luck with is long road back to the bigs.

Jose Lopez – He’ll be non-tendered by the Mariners, hardly a shock given that he is coming off his worst season in five years (.239-10-58-49-3 in 593 at-bats). Given that he owns a career slash line of .266/.297/.400 one can’t think that, in this economic environment, that he will find anyone willing to back up the money truck.

Jamie Moyer – The 48 year old lefty had Tommy John surgery on Wednesday that will knock him out of the 2011 season. Still, he isn’t ready to give up on his dream of 300 career victories (he has 267 wins). Moyer says he will target a return to action in 2012. If you aren’t rooting for him you must be related to Ebenezer Scrooge.

Oliver Perez – Reports out of the Mexican Winter League are that Perez is consistently sitting at 88 mph, with his fastball, but that he has been able to get his heater up to 91-92. He’s also thrown 10-straight scoreless innings. Add that up and I’m 100 percent positive that he will more than justify the $12 million he is to be paid in 2011 (dripping sarcasm). Goodness gracious.

Mark Prior – The Rangers are said to have interest in the one time phenom. Reports are that Prior has gotten his fastball back into the 91-92 mph territory, and with that speed he could have success as an arm out of the pen. He will never reach the heights that were once predicted, but I’m certainly rooting for him. Amazingly, he is still just 30 years old.

Robinson Tejeda – This is just the type of guy that teams should take a shot on. Why are the Royals willing to deal the cannon armed Tejeda who had a 3.54 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 61 innings last season? Because they are the Royals of course. Dating back to July 25th of 2009 Tejeda has posted a 2.97 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 8.84 K/9 mark over 112 innings. Who couldn’t use that?

Brandon Webb – Every team in baseball seems to be in on the sinker balling righty. Someone will give him a heavily incentivized deal to pitch for them in 2011, but if you talk to scouts they will tell you that his performance late in 2010, as he continues his attempted comeback from a shoulder surgery, was poor at best. Don’t forget that he has tossed all of four innings the past two years.

By Ray Flowers