Vegas Baby, and the FSTA

I was in Vegas for a couple of days in order to attend the Fantasy Sports Trade Association event. While there we did a couple of our radio shows for Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio (we can be heard daily from 5-8 PM EDT), and of course we mixed in some fun including random dancing, a few cocktails (maybe more appropriately a slew of them), and some general merriment. Between all of that I was able to participate in the annual FSTA Mixed League Draft which we were able to hold on air in its entirety (to listen to it again, or for the first time, tune in to Sirius147/XM211 Radio at the following times: Friday at 5pm and 11 PM Eastern, and Saturday and Sunday at 3PM and 11PM Eastern). As for the draft results, you can follow the link to The Sirius/XM FSTA Draft for all the picks taken in the 13 team, 29 round draft. Here is a review of the team that I was able to put together, with the help of the beautiful Kay Adams.

C: Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Brandon Phillips, Aaron Hill
3B: Aramis Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta
SS: Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bartlett
OF: Carl Crawford, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Lee, Denard Span, Nate McLouth, Cameron Maybin, Roger Bernadina

SP: Yovanni Gallardo, Dan Haren, Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, James Shields, Scott Baker, Carlos Zambrano

RP: Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Brandon League, Rich Harden, Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee

Here are some of my thoughts on the draft.

* I was very pleased to see Carl Crawford fall to us at #7 overall. There seemed to be about a 50/50 split between people at the conference over taking Crawford or Troy Tulowitzki in that spot.

* Some people questioned Rollins in the 3rd round, though I don’t see why there would be any doubt about him at that spot. I have him as the #3 shortstop on the board this year (see: Top-10 Shortstops for 2011).

* Overall I love the talent of of this club. Some have said the team might be short on power, and while I can’t say we have any chance to lead the league in homers, I think our hitting should be highly productive. In taking a general overview I think we have a shot at having four guys who could at least go 15/15 (Crawford, Rollins, McCutchen, Phillips), and that is some serious talent that doesn’t even include two others who could go 15/15 (Maybin and Bernadina) as well as another guy who has already done that before (McLouth). We were one pick from nabbing Ryan Howard in the third round to be our corner infield option or that power talk would have been completely removed (we ended up with Rollins).

* This draft just goes to show you that you don’t have to reach on catching. While neither of my guys will win the league for me, Ruiz (16th round) and Molina (17th) give me two of the more stable options in the game. In leagues that start two catchers knowing that you have two guys who should hit .280 with 50 RBI is a nice feeling.

* Things turned out pretty well with the starting pitchers. I waited a bit to take a starter, though with all of them flying off the board I did go earlier than I normally do with Gallardo in the 6th round. I then grabbed the ultra consistent Haren in the 8th meaning that through 10 rounds I had rostered: 1 1B, 2 2B (one for MI), 1 SS, 1 3B, 2 OF, 2 SP, 1 RP.

* As for relievers, that unit is short on saves as we sit here today. With the draft being done so early, it is January after all, there is just no way to know how certain situations are going to pan out. Therefore I did something I hardly ever do, and that is go for a closer within the first 10 picks. I took Joakim Soria in the 9th round knowing that he was one of about 15 guys that seemed to have the 9th locked down for his team. Given that he is a top-5 option in my mind, it was an easy call to take him in that spot. I grabbed League who could open the year as “the man” with David Aardsma coming back from injury for the Mainers, an truthfully I think he’s a better pitcher than Aardsma (remember the Mariners had been looking to move David prior to the injury). Ryan Madson is an injury to Brad Lidge away from the 9th, and he is the better pitcher at this point if you gauge each man in a head-to-head manner. Remember, roster skills over roll in the pen and nine times out of 10 you will come out ahead. And in my nod to fantasy football, I handcuffed my Rays’ relievers to one another taking the young guy (McGee) and the old one (Farnsworth). Hopefully one of them pans out and locks down the role.

This is a solid squad and one that should allow me to remain competitive this season, provided that (a) my players stay healthy, and (b) if my “I was down in 2010 but I’m really a better player than that” plan comes to fruition in 2011. You did pick up that strategy I employed right? Take a look at the guys who had down seasons last year that I think are primed for a strong comeback in 2011: Ramirez, Hill, Lee, Span, Shields, McLouth, Bartlett. Hopefully I didn’t out think myself.

Now, where is my waitress with those fruity drinks…

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Holiday Dealings

Less than a week away from Christmas, plenty of teams are more than willing to open their gifts early. In what follows I’ll touch on a few of the players who have recently decided where they should send their holiday greetings from.

Rick Ankiel: The Nationals took a chance on Monday and signed Rick Ankiel to a 1-year deal worth $1.5 million (there are performance bonuses built in to the deal – reportedly up to $1.25 million). Ankiel will likely battle with Roger Bernadina for playing time in left field, though if Nyjer Morgan doesn’t turn his life around and perform better on the field, the defensively gifted Ankiel could also see time in center field. Ankiel hit .264 with 25 homers in 2008, but over the past two years he has batted a meager .232 with 17 homers. There are plenty of holes in his swing leading to a bushel of strikeouts (once every 3.69 at-bats), but the power is legit. Ankiel has hit a homer every 22.8 at-bats in his career which would equate to 18 homers over the course of 400 at-bats. He’s worth keeping a close eye on in NL-only leagues.

Zack Greinke: I always do what I can to mooch off Ted Carlson, he’s a smart guy and a wonderful writer, so I’m gonna point everyone to his full review of the Greinke to Brewers move in From Blue to Brew. My thoughts? Good for the Brewers. They can now team Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum for a fantastic top-3 that rivals the best in the NL. I know I’m gonna hear it from Phillies and Giants fans, so let’s do a side by side comparison of each teams top-3 hurlers based on their 2010 numbers.

Brewers: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum
Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt (sorry Cole Hamels)
Giants: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez

Brewers: 37-29, 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.19 K/9 in 600.1 IP
Phillies: 46-32, 3.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.96 K/9 in 674.2 IP
Giants: 42-30, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.77 K/9 in 629 IP

OK, maybe the Brewers threesome didn’t quite matchup, but admit it, it’s a lot closer than you though it would be other than that unsightly ERA, isn’t it?

Austin Kearns: Signed a 1-year deal with the Indians. I joked earlier at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account that Kearns seems to always fool someone into given him 300 at-bats. Looks like it will be the Indians chance this season. I’m not going to deny that Kearns has some talent, but com on now. He is always hurt and frequently doesn’t contribute much of anything above a replacement level type bat, a fact that can clearly be seen when you place his career slash line (.257/.353/.423) against that of the league during his career (.268/.339/.429).

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins and Nolasco finally agreed on a deal that will buy out his final two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency. His haul comes to $26.5 million over three years. While that seems like a whole lot of cashola for a guy who has posted ERA’s of 5.06 and 4.51 the past two years, I think it’s a great signing for the Marlins. Some facts that cover the last three years (minimum 480 innings pitched).

(1) Nolasco has allowed 10.99 base runners per nine innings, the 16th best mark in baseball and ahead of guys like Matt Cain (11.07), Jon Danks (11.36), Justin Verlander (11.51) and Clayton Kershaw (11.57).

(2) Nolasco has the seventh best K/9 rate in the game at 8.56, better than Dan Haren (8.53), Josh Johnson (8.51), Zack Greinke (8.37) and Ubaldo Jimenez (8.23).

(3) Nolasco is fourth in baseball with a 4.44 K/BB mark. The major league average the past three years is just 2.07.

So how in the world does he have a 4.31 ERA the past three years? Great question, especially when his FIP mark has been 3.77, 3.35 and 3.86 the past three seasons signifying that he is indeed performing at a very high level. Bad luck maybe?

I’ll tell you this. If you asked me where would I draft a guy with a K/9 rate over 8.50 and a K/BB rate of nearly 4.50, I would tell you top-20 amongst starters for sure. In fact, I’d probably be able to make an argument for at least including that arm in my top-15, and that’s exactly why I think the Marlins did so well here – there just aren’t that many pitchers in baseball of baseball who can post a K/9 mark of 8.50 and a K/BB rate of better than 4.40 to one. In fact, over the last three years there have only been two men who have accomplished that feat – Mr. Nolasco and Mr. Haren.

Chan Ho Park: The 37 year old righty is likely done as a big league pitcher after signing a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan. Park, who once allowed two grand slams to Fernando Tatis in one inning (April 23, 1999), would retire from the big leagues with 124 victories and 1,715 strikeouts in just under 2,000 innings (1993). Hopefully he will be content pitching closer to his homeland of Korea.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Pitchers Dominate the News

Wednesday has been a day filled with plenty of news with most of it focused on the men who take the hill. There’s also a bit in here at the end about that rich guy who will patrol the outfield for the Nationals for those of you looking for a hitting fix.

Rich Harden: The flame throwing righty has reportedly agreed to a one year deal for $1.5 million to return to the club that he began his major league career with – the Athletics (there are another $1.5 million available in incentives). The deal will not become official for a couple of days yet as Harden still has to pass a physical – clearly not a given at this point. Early reports suggest that the A’s are looking at Harden as a bullpen option more than a challenger for a starting role, but you have to think they might be tempted to give him a shot at the 5th starters role. Regardless of where he pitches he is a wild card. Coming off a career worst 5.58 ERA and 7.34 K/9 marks – this guy owns career marks of 3.63 and 9.13 – Harden will be the quintessential late game flier. I’ll tell you this. Even with his average fastball sitting at just 90.5 mph last season, I wouldn’t want to face this guy coming out of the pen. Can you imagine batters trying to get their bats on that heater and his amazingly sinking change up? That sounds like a recipe for success if you ask me.

Cliff Lee Update: The final details of his contract are in. The Phillies will be paying the 32 year old lefty $120 million over five years. There is also a vesting option for $27.5 million (if he doesn’t reach the needed incentives in the deal, he would pickup a $12.5 million buyout meaning the deal comes to at least $135 million over the course of six years). A couple of obvious questions that need to be answered.

Does this signing make the Phillies better? Are you on crack? Of course it does. It not only does that, it makes them World Series favorites.

Does this deal give the Phillies the best starting rotation in baseball? Without a doubt it does.

Was this a smart deal for the team to enter into? This is a serious question that could play out very badly for the Phillies in the long run.

(1) If history is a guide, this was a terrible decision. This was the sixth $100+ million deal ever awarded to a pitcher. Here are the first five with a grade.

CC Sabathia (7 years, $161 million): So far, so good. An incomplete “A.”

Johan Santana (6 years, $135): He was great for one year and then solid in two. He had shoulder surgery and will likely miss half the year though in 201. An incomplete “B-” that grade could get much, much worse.

Barry Zito (7 years, $126 million): He’s stayed healthy and given the team innings. But all you need to know about his value is the fact that he was left off the playoff roster. An incomplete “D+”

Mike Hampton (8 years, $121 million): In a word – awful. “F.”

Kevin Brown (7 years, $105 million): Continually injured, he pitched well when healthy but for the duration of the deal he was merely average. “C-.”

(2) Does it make any sense to give a pitcher a deal that is this long when he is 32 years old? What this deal leads to is that at 35, 36 and 37 years of age Lee will be making $25 million a year. When he is 38 he will make either $12.5 or $27.5 million (depending on whether or not his option is picked up). If you think that sounds like a good idea I bet you are also the fella who would trade Chase Utley for Aaron Hill if he hit .220 in April.

The bottom line is that this signing gives the Phillies a magnificent chance to win the World Series in 2011, but they could pay a dear price in the long run for that short-term success.

Pitchers on the Market: Fausto Carmona, Zack Greinke and Carlos Zambrano

Greinke will be the most costly to acquire of this trio, and I touched on his situation a couple of days ago in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

Carmona is being viewed by some clubs as a cheaper fall back option if they aren’t able to get Greinke in a deal. Everyone knows that Carmona is nowhere near as impressive as Greinke, but he also won’t cost near as much to pick up. No matter where he ends up, Fausto just isn’t a very good fantasy option. While he throws an exploding sinker that can lead to wonderful outings, he is also a disaster when it comes to throwing strikes. I’ll give the guy some credit, he did knock his BB/9 mark down to a solid 3.08 last year, but he owns a 3.67 career rate and was over five per nine in 2008 and 2009. Carmona is also far from a strikeout option. In fact, despite throwing 210.1 innings last season, his total of 124 Ks was less than the totals of guys like Kevin Millwood (132) and Kyle Davies (126).

Zambrano is a very intriguing option. The most volcanic personality in the game, Big Z is as capable of throwing a no-hitter as he is likely to vent his childhood frustrations on an unsuspecting Gatorade cooler. The guy is just a flat out mess. At the same time, he rebounded from banishment in late June to allow two or fewer earned runs in each of his last 14 appearances during which time he posted a stellar 1.58 ERA. It likely wouldn’t take a hell of a lot to pry him from the Cubs given that he is due $17.85 million in 2011, $18 million in 2012 and $19.25 million on an option. Clearly if the Cubs want to move him to another club they are going to have to open their wallets big time and pay a large portion of that coin.

Jayson Werth: He was introduced officially at a press conference today, and manager Jim Riggleman mentioned that Werth might be asked to play center field against left-handed pitching. That means a couple of things. First, Nyjer Morgan and Roger Bernadina better not buy a house because they aren’t in the club’s daily plans. Second, Michael Morse could end up getting a lot more playing time than some people think in right field. Don’t overlook Morse. In 618 career at-bats he has hit .291 with 21 homers, 88 RBI and 73 runs scored. He could be a wonderful NL-only option this season.

By Ray Flowers