Operation Zero: The 2013 Hall of Fame Class

I’ve resisted writing about the 2013 MLB Hall of Fame candidates up until this point. Before detailing why it is insane that no players were elected to the Hall of Fame this year, I thought I would simply cut and past some of my tweets from the BaseballGuys’ Twitter feed over the past few days.

So hypocritical – people are busted weekly in NFL for steroids, no one cares. Merriman made the Pro Bowl year he got popped.

We have the Mitchell Report and what else? There’s no way to know what someone did 15 years ago.

Everyone can think what they want, I just think it’s extremely cynical just to assume everyone who is good is guilty.

Did some players use drugs to enhance their performance? Absolutely they did. Do we know everyone who did/didn’t? There is no way to know.

We have to judge players against others in their era. I’m so sick of Everyone accusing Every player of cheating w/o proof.

My point is that we have NO idea who used PEDs and who didn’t. In USA you’re innocent until PROVEN guilty.

Players in the 1970′s all used “greenies” – do we then say everyone in the 70′s is a cheater and should be downgraded?

Can’t we just say the era is tainted and move on? This PED stuff is soooo played out.

Newsflash people – players have cheated since the game was invented.

And this from Dustin Swedelson, a producer at SiriusXM (@dustinswedelson)

Remember when the writers who vote for baseball HOF’s jobs mattered again because of the steroid era? Didn’t hear them investigate then

Here’s my bottom line. We don’t know who did PED’s. We will never know. Baseball needs to decide how it will handle this. (A) We say everyone who played baseball for 15 years can’t be inducted into Cooperstown. (B) We admit that players cheated, compare them against their contemporaries, and judge them based upon their on the field merits. It’s really as simple as that folks. Without evidence, EVIDENCE, we can’t choose to exclude or include this person or that person because of a feeling. Well people can, but it’s grossly misguided and absolutely nonsensical for people to do so. So stop the madness folks. Decide everyone is out or everyone will be judged based on their performance. Short of irrefutable proof that a player cheated it’s an assault on common sense to exclude players simply because you have a “feeling” they cheated. Preposterous.

Here are the actual results of the 2013 vote.

Here are my thoughts on all the players who received at least 10 percent of the 2013 vote.

Craig Biggio (68.2 percent – 75 percent is needed for election): One of the scrappiest player of the last 30 years, Biggio came up as a catcher, won four Gold Gloves at second base, and then moved to the outfield later in his career. Other than a guy like Pete Rose, who has done that at the level of Biggio? Craig is 15th all-time in runs scored, 21st in hits (3,060) and fifth in doubles. Heck, he even went deep 291 times in his career. He should be enshrined.

Jack Morris (67.7 percent): His support continues to grow, but it’s revisionist history. The guy may have thrown a ton of innings and come up big in some big games, but my HOF has no place for a pitcher who never led the league in WHIP or ERA, and only once led his league in strikeouts (232 in 1983). Heck, he was never even the runner up for the Cy Young Award.

Jeff Bagwell (59.6 percent): My thoughts can be found in The Case for Bagwell.

Mike Piazza (57.8 percent): How in the world can the greatest hitting catcher of all-time not be in the HOF? From 1993-2002 an average Pizza season was a .322 average, 35 homers, 107 RBIs, 85 runs scored and an OPS of .969. How many elite level players ever have a season that good once? – and he did it for a decade. While catching.

Tim Raines (52.2 percent): A travesty he’s not been elected. See HOF: Tim Raines.

Lee Smith (47.8 percent): I gave my thoughts on closers in What is a HOF Closer? The 478 saves are amazing, and his longevity is impressive (13-straight years with at least 25 saves from 1983-95). I’m not overly impressive by guys that throw one inning though. I’m even less impressed by a guys save total as saves are a result of opportunity (we all know some teams use their “better” pitcher in a setup role). A 8.73 K/9, 2.57 K/BB, 3.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP just don’t do it for me.

Curt Schilling (38.8 percent): He was dominant in the post-season going 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and that’s great, but someone shouldn’t be in or out based on 133.1 playoff innings. Won “only” 216 games but had a solid .597 winning percentage, and for his career his ERA+ was 127 meaning his 3.46 raw ERA was 27 percent better than the league average, an impressive number. He also struck better than 8.5 batters per nine, and for his career his 4.38 K/BB ratio is elite (it’s the best ever for a pitcher who threw 3,000 innings). He’s in – barely.

Roger Clemens (37.6 percent): One of the 10 greatest pitchers of all-time if you judge base on the numbers. An MVP award, seven Cy Young’s, 9th all-time in wins, 3rd in strikeouts and his ERA+ was 143, forty three percent better than the league average (his raw ERA was 3.12, his WHIP 1.17). The case against him is certainly there, but I’m still putting him in.

Barry Bonds (36.2 percent): There may be no more conclusive case about PED use for a player than the case with Bonds. Fourteen All-Star games, eight Gold Gloves, seven MVP awards – separated by eight years (his last of the ‘first’ cycle was in 1993 and his first in the ‘second’ cycle was 2001). First all-time in homers, 3rd in runs, 4th in RBIs, 6th in OBP, 6th in SLG and 4th in OPS. Oh yeah, he also stole 514 bags. One of the three greatest offensive forces the game ever saw. He’s out, and it’s a shame, but honestly, this call is more an indictment of baseball than Bonds.

Edgar Martinez (35.9 percent): See the argument in Is There Room for a DH?

Alan Trammell (33.6 percent): A really good player who had four Gold Gloves and six All-Star games nods. Still, he only finished as a top-5 MVP vote getter once, only had two 20 homer seasons, only one 100 RBI effort and just three seasons of more than 85 runs scored. Really good, but the Hall of Fame is for great – even if he was a very good fielder.

Larry Walker (21.6 percent): My best guess is that he will never be voted in, not because of PED use, but because people hold Coors Field, pre-humidor, against him. He finished his career with more homers than Joe DiMaggio (383 to 361), had more RBIs than Roberto Clemente (1,311 to 1,305), had more runs scored than Barry Larkin (1,355 to 1,329), a better batting average than Manny Ramirez (.313 to .312) and a better OPS than than all but 15 other men who played the game (.965). He’s also the only man since 1930 to have three straight seasons of hitting .360 (1997-99). Based upon the numbers he’s gotta be in, but with only a handful of huge run producing seasons, only four 140 games seasons, and the Coors Field effect, he’s as close as you can get for me without being included.

Fred McGriff (20.7 percent): See the discussion Is McGriff Hall Worthy?

Dale Murphy (18.6 percent): My favorite player as a kid, and even better than his work on the field is the fact that he is an amazing human being who never once had a hint of scandal. From 1980-89 here are Murphy’s ranks among all players: 2nd in extra base hits, 2nd in HRs, 2nd in RBIs and 4th in runs. He also won 2 MVPs, was named to the All-Star team seven times and he won five Gold Gloves. One other plus. In 1980 Murphy was catcher eligible in fantasy baseball (27 games at C in ’79). He went .281-33-89-98-9. Just barely outside without a key to the door. He will have to hope the Veteran’s Committee votes him in as his 15 years on the regular ballot are up.

Mark McGwire (16.9 percent): An admitted cheater. From 1987 through his final year in the big leagues (2001), here is how McGwire ranked in a myriad of categories for that 15-year stretch: McGwire hit 580 homers, the most in baseball (Barry Bonds had 551). McGwire had 1,405 RBI, third most in baseball (Bonds had 1,494). McGwire had a .590 SLG, the third best mark in baseball (Bonds and Manny Ramirez led the way at .594). McGwire had a .985 OPS, fourth in baseball (Bonds at 1.017). I’ll leave him out since he admitted cheating, but even so, I’m inclined to cast my vote in favor of his election given his work on the field. Being honest actually works against McGwire… does that seem right to you?

Don Mattingly (13.2 percent): Mattingly had a very short peak as an elite hitter (before his back went bad), but from ’84-’89 here are his big league rankings: 3rd in AVG, 1st in 2B, 1st in EBH, 1st in RBI, 6th HR, 5th OPS. Mattingly also won nine Gold Gloves for his work at first base. A great player but he’s on the outside looking in cause his elite performance didn’t last long enough.

Sammy Sosa (12.5 percent): Everyone “knows” he cheated, but unlike McGwire he never admitted it (famously Sosa acted like he couldn’t speak English when he was called in front of Congress). From 1994-2003 here is what an “average” Sosa season looked like: .290-47-122-104-13 with a .958 OPS. Since we don’t have “proof” that he cheated, he goes in on my ballot. Remember, I’m not voting people out because we “know” a guy was dirty.

Finally, two articles.

A very informative piece from the NY Times entitled Hall of Fame Has Always Made Room for Infamy.

Jayson Stark’s Take on what the HOF has become.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Dustin Ackley, what the heck happened to you? Weren’t you supposed to be a polished hitter, ready for immediate big league success after being taken 2nd overall in the 2009 Entry Draft? Not so much eh? Ackley does have a few things going for him in that he’s scored 68 runs (pace of 88) and has 12 steals (pace of 15). Those numbers, when combined with 41 RBIs (pace 53), mark him as a potential middle infield option in deep mixed leagues. However, when you look over and see that .229 batting, that outlook becomes an outdated one. You can’t give up on Ackley and what should be a successful career, but it’s pretty obvious at this point that he just hasn’t been able to put together consistent at-bats in the bigs, and that leaves his fantasy value teetering on the brink of irrelevance in many leagues (he’s only owned in 56 percent of leagues at Fleaflicker).

Aaron Cook has made 11 starts this year for the Red Sox, and he’s gone 3-7 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Clearly the Sox have had issues with their rotation or why would they have bothered to give Cook 11 starts. But that’s not my point here. Do you know that in 11 starts Cook has – 11 strikeouts? Eleven. One an outing. One every 5.6 innings or 1.60 per nine. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 60-innings in a season since 1950 that’s the 7th worst K/9 mark. George O’Donnell somehow had a 0.83 K/9 mark in 1954 with eight Ks in 87 innings. That was his only season in the big leagues.

The Astros’ owner, Jim Crane, is “open” to adding Roger Clemens to the club if the 50 year old proves he still has something left. Why not since the Astros have the worst record in baseball at 39-86, and according to my latest look at their roster they do not have a single player on their current roster making more than $750,000 other than Ben Francisco at $1.537 million. That’s embarrassing. How could you possibly be an Astros fan?

The Red Sox have placed Josh Beckett,  Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez and Jon Lester on waivers. It’s unlikely any of the trio will be moved, but we have learned that the Dodgers have placed a claim on A-Gone meaning they have 48 hours to see if they can work something out with the Sox. Don’t count on that happening.

Albert Pujols‘ calf issue is improving, and he could be back in action as soon as this weekend for the Angels. That’s hugely important to Pujols owners considering that he had hit eight homers and driven in 19 runners in his first 19 games played in August. Who would have thought it, but it seems probable that Pujols will get to 30 homers and 99 RBIs for a 12th straight season. He may not get to .299, the mark he has posted each of his first 11 years, he’s at .283 right now, but he has hit .317 since the All-Star break so it’s possible that a strong finish could get him up to that mark.

Mike Trout leads baseball with 41 steals, and he’s also been caught just four times for a 91 percent success rate, a big time success rate that is hard to maintain from year to year. The only player in baseball with more than 30 steals who has been caught fewer times is Emilio “I can’t stay healthy” Bonifacio who has 30 steals in 33 chances. Given that he’s played in only 64 games this season, Emilio is on a 160 game pace of 75 thefts, a huge number in this day and age. Speaking of steals, Tony Campana, in limited playing time, has racked up a rather impressive total of 26 steals. I say that because he has appeared in just 70 games with a mere 158 at-bats. Campana is also sporting a pathetic OBP of .299, has knocked in five runs all year, and somehow has scored five less times (21) than he has stolen a base. Amazingly, the mighty mite has just one steal since June 30th which means he has one one theft in roughly two months.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

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By Ray Flowers

NL Cy and an Import

NL Cy Young Controversy?

I just don’t get it sometimes. It could be the booze or it could be the fact that I’m usually only half paying attention when I write given that I have about 867 tasks a day to complete, but how in the world did the Baseball Writers Association of America name Roy Halladay the unanimous Cy Young Award winner in the NL? I admit it, I selected Halladay as my winner in the piece Who is the NL Cy Young?, but as I pointed out in that piece, Halladay’s numbers were almost matched by the Cardinals ‘Adam Wainwright. Check it out (you can access all the numbers by clicking on the link to the original piece).

Halladay had one more win than Wainwright.
Halladay’s ERA was 0.02 worse than Wainwright.
Halladay’s WHIP was 0.01 better than Wainwright.
Halladay struck out fewer batters per nine than Wainwright.
Halladay allowed more homers per nine than Wainwright.
Halladay was only 0.04 better than Wainwright in GB/FB ratio.
Halladay basically doubled Wainwright in K/BB.

I don’t know about you, but those numbers just don’t scream out unanimous selection. Like I wrote Halladay was still my choice to win the award, but I’m just shocked that no one gave a first place nod to Wainwright.

Three other notes that are everywhere but needs to be mentioned nonetheless. (1) Halladay became the 5th pitcher to win the Cy Young Award in both leagues as he joins Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Gaylord Perry. (2) Halladay became the 7th Phillie to win the award. (3) Halladay was just the 13th unanimous choice in the NL.

Oh, and before moving on, here is an interesting note for the bridesmaid, Mr. Wainwright. Since he finished second in the Cy Young voting, his options for 2012 and 2013 will become automatically activated – as long as he doesn’t finish the 2011 season on the DL. If he can just stay healthy he will be guaranteed $9 million in ’12 and $12 million in ’13 – plus be eligible for bonuses based on his Cy Young finishes.

Kuroda Re-Signs with Dodgers

Hiroki Kuroda decided to remain with the Dodgers for at least one more season after signing a 1-year, $12 million deal (rumors are that he might return to Japan for the 2012 season which is why he signed for only one year). I find that number off since Kuroda made $13 million last season and because of the fact that Ted Lilly, also of the Dodgers, recently signed a 3-year, $33 million deal. I will say this, the 35 year old Kuroda pitched very well last season. Sure he went only 11-13, but the numbers were mighty impressive.

His 3.39 ERA was better than the 3.43 mark of Tim Lincecum.

His 196.1 innings were more than Wandy Rodriguez, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Sanchez to name but a few.

His 1.16 WHIP was better than Clayton Kershaw (1.18), Johan Santana (1.18) and Chris Carpenter (1.18) to name but a few.

His .243 BAA was better than Ryan Dempster (.244), Roy Halladay (.245) and Brett Myers (.248) to name but a few.

Face it, Kuroda is a solid pitcher who has shown no sign of decline as he hits his mid 30′s (for one, his K/9 rate was a career best at 7.29, well above his 6.56 career mark), even if his career record of 28-30 would lead you to another conclusion.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 19, 2010

(1) David Wright back in the lineup for Mets.

(2) Ian Kinsler to get MRI on Monday.

(3) Dustin Pedroia out with sore foot.

(4) Lance Berkman to DL. Alex Rodriguez should be back soon for Yankees.

(5) Brad Hawpe released.

(6) Pedro Feliz to Cardinals.

(7) Ryan Howard (ankle) hopes to return on Monday.

(8) Roger Clemens likely to be indicted for lying to Congress.

By Ray Flowers

The HOF and Ubaldo Jimenez

On Sunday Andre Dawson was officially inducted into the Hall of Fame. An eight time All-Star who is one of only three men in big league history to hit 400 homers while also stealing at least 300 bases (Barry Bonds and Willie Mays are the others), Dawson also has one of the worst OBP (.323) of any player in the Hall of Fame. In fact, it’s the worst mark of any outfielder enshrined at Cooperstown, .020 points below the .343 mark of Lou Brock. Should Dawson have been elected to the HOF? I tackled that very question in The Case of Andre Dawson. If that piece doesn’t cause you some pause about whether or not the athletic outfielder should have been enshrined, perhaps Dawson vs. Alomar will prove to you, once an for all, that not only does Roberto Alomar deserve to be in the Hall of Fame but that Dawson’s credentials might be a little thin.

I actually wrote up a series of piece on players who were eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame this year, and here are those links:

Edgar Martinez – Is there Room for a DH?
HOF: Tim Raines.
Is McGriff Hall Worthy?
HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?
HOF: Who Am I?

Any here are my final thoughts where I discussed the 2010 voting results.

HOF: What Should Have Been.

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Ubaldo Jimenez is awful. There, I said it, and don’t for a second try and tell me you weren’t thinking the same thing. On June 7th, a mere eight starts ago, Ubaldo had a 0.93 ERA. Heck, on June 18th it was still 1.15. However, the past six outings haven’t looked anything like his first 14 trips to the hill. Here are the numbers:

7.64 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.73 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 1.68 K/BB

The ERA is horrific, the WHIP is terrible, and that walk rate is godawful leading to a decidedly sub par K/BB mark that is well below the big league average of 2.10.

So what happened? It’s called regression people, ever heard of it? Did you really drink so much of that Ubaldo Cool Aid that you actually thought he was going to challenge Bob Gibson’s NL ERA mark of 1.12? Come on now. Did you think he was gonna keep his ERA under 2.00 all year long? I got news for you, that’s only happened twice in baseball since the 21st century began (Pedro Martinez had a 1.74 mark in 2000 and Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 mark in 2005). Again, you kid right?

The truth is that Ubaldo is simply returning to the level of “dominance” instead of the “historic” pace that he flashed early on. He still has a 2.75 ERA, his WHIP is just 1.12, he has nearly a K per inning (120 in 134.1) and he is still 15-2. How rare is that combination? If he maintains that pace for 34 starts this season we’d be looking at something like 25 wins, 200 Ks and a 2.75 ERA. How many pitchers have reached all three of those levels since 2000? It’s a small group of — zero. If we go back to 1990 there still isn’t one member of the group. How about 1980? Still none. You have to go all the way back to to Ron Guidry in 1978 to find a pitcher who reach all three milestones (25-3, 1.74 ERA, 248 Ks).

The bottom line with Ubaldo is that you should cut the guy some slack. Still, I hope you listened when I suggested you sell high on the flamethrower from Colorado because that window for peak value in a trade has been closed completely.

By Ray Flowers

The Hidden Truth

While doing my daily run around the world of sports last week, I came across a very interesting article written by Jeff Passan that you can find at Stimulants Gain Attention. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what the piece was about.

Normally, I avoid all the talk of steroids and performance enhancing drugs (PED). Sure, I sometimes delve into the topic, I can’t avoid it entirely in my line of work, but honestly most of the time I try to pay attention to what is happening on the field and let the legal wrangling and the blowhards deal with PED’s. However, Mr. Passan’s column was so illuminating I thought I simply had to break it down. Here are some of the highlights of the piece.

1- 108 players in 2009 were awarded a free pass for drug use. What do I mean? 108 major league players were granted a TUE or Therapeutic Use Exemption to take drugs on the banned list. These 108 baseball player all were being treated for ADHD or Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder. That’s nearly nine percent of all players, more than double the population at large. “It looks fishy,” said Dr. Ari Tuckman, the VP of the Attention Deficit Disorder Association. “It doesn’t mean it is, but it looks that way.”

2- In 2006 there were 28 players granted a TUE.

3- In 2007 MLB started testing for stimulants.

4- In 2007 the number of TUE’s quadrupled to 103.

You do the math.

5- Though baseball says they have tightened the rules for TUE, in 2008 the number of players on the list increased from 103 to 106. “A healthy percentage of applications for new TUE’s was rejected,” MLB Players Association director Michael Weiner said

6- ADHD drugs are not steroids. However, they do bring a heightened sense of alertness, and an inner calmness, two traits that clearly might have just a wee bit of an effect on a hitter. “In the most general sense, almost everybody does better on a stimulant,” Dr. Tuckman said, “which is something Starbucks and Coca-Cola figured out long ago.”

So what do we have here? Well, approximately 15 percent of all major league players are using prescription medication that could be said, in the least, to give the user a more heightened ability to focus. Given the requirements of the game, a game that goes on day after day for six months, you often hear that players are more mentally tired than physically worn down. Do you think a little pick me up in the form of a TUE leading to medication might help? I’m not saying that there aren’t some players who legitimately might have a medically condition, but double the rate of the general population? To say that seems unlikely would be kind.

In the end, this problem will never go away. Those that want to cheat will likely always be one step ahead of those that are trying to catch them. Those that can skirt by legally will likely do everything they can to gain that little extra edge. And to be truthful, is there really any difference between having a TUE or stealing signs on the field? You might even be able to make a cogent argument that stealing signs is actually worse because it informs you how the play will develop (if you take a drug, you still have to read, react and perform). I don’t know if there is any way to put all of this “drug” stuff behind us, but if there is I’d be 100 percent behind it because for far too long the story hasn’t been about what happens on the field, it’s been about what has happened in the doctor’s office.

By Ray Flowers

The Number 14

What does the number 14 mean to you? I suppose that it all depends on which sport you follow. I read one rather amazing comment on the number 14 that triggered me to go in search of number “14’s” for this piece, but before I get to the “big” one, here are a few other “14’s.”

* The uniform number of the Hit King, Pete Rose.

* The number of victories for Carl Pavano in 2009.

* The number of victories that Andy Pettitte has in three of his past four seasons.

* The point-per-game scoring pace of Tayshaun Prince last season (well it was 14.2, but if you round off that puppy you got your fourteen).

* The number of points that Rene Bourque has in 10 games with the Calgary Flames this year.

All of those are rather random “14’s” that can be found with a random sampling of sports, and none of the aforementioned “14’s” are what sent me on this kick. What is the “14” that did the trick?

From 1991-2005 the Braves won a division title, you guessed it, 14-consecutive seasons.

If you’re counting and you realize there are 15 years involved you are right. Don’t forget that major league baseball had a strike in 1994 when no divisional champions were officially crowned (the Braves were 68-46 but six games behind the Expos when the season was canceled).

In this day and age of money grubbing athletes, ah who am I kidding I’m just jealous, there is simply no way I can possibly conceive of any team in pro sports ever matching that run with guys always looking to “get mine” making it nearly impossible to set up a dynasty (also the advent of salary caps doesn’t help). Sure the Braves won only one championship in 1995, and they reached the World Series only five times, but honestly, 14-consecutive division titles? I have trouble waking up to my alarm clock 14-straight times. Here are some highlights from the run.

* The NL ERA was 4.21 in this stretch. The Braves’ ERA was 3.53.
* The NL WHIP was 1.38. The Braves’ WHIP was 1.28.
* Obviously the NL winning percentage was .500. The Braves mark was .606.

As you might recall, the Braves had a pretty strong threesome leading the charge to all those pennants.

John Smoltz: 149-99 (.601 Win%), 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.13 K/9, 3.19 K/BB. Was hugely clutch in playoffs, and there may have never been a more devastating slider from a right-handed starter.

Tom Glavine (1991-2002; he joined the Mets thereafter): 209-102 (.672 Win%), 3.15 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 5.77 K/9, 3.09 K/BB. The classiest lefty of the past 25 years. He wasn’t ever as exciting as the other two, but the man could certainly pitch with the best of them.

Greg Maddux (1993-2003): 194-88 (.688 Win%), 2.63 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 6.51 K/9, 4.77 K/BB. Probably the best pitcher of his generation with his only competition being Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens. No one was better at the art of pitching.

Combined, the trio also brought home some hardware.

Glavine: 1991 Cy Young Award
Maddux: 1992-95 Cy Young Awards
Smoltz: 1996 Cy Young Award

So as you can see, the Big-3 was certainly at the heart of pretty much all of the success that the Braves had. Oh, that and the man who has helmed the ship in manager Bobby Cox. Mr. Cox is fourth all-time with 2,413 victories, and though he likely won’t catch Tony LaRussa (2,552) for third overall, you can’t do anything but throw mad props at Cox who has been the Manager of the Year four times (1985, 1991, 2004-05) as the guy who captained the organization to every one of those 14 division championships.

One other “14” by the way… my brother Jeff used to wear the number while slugging homers on the diamond before be turned to soccer where he had a fair amount of success going on to become All-State in Junior College at the keeper position.

By Ray Flowers

Greinke for Cy

I’m sure I will address this issue in more depth as we move forward, perhaps in an even longer piece if the people who vote on the end of the year awards vote as I fear that they will. But the bottom line, no matter how you break this thing down, the answer is always the same: there is only one option for the AL Cy Young award, and his name is Zack Greinke of the Royals.

Here is what I know, the irrefutable data that we have to review.

(1) Greinke leads the AL in ERA at 2.14. In fact, he leads baseball with that mark (Tim Lincecum leads the NL at 2.30).

Since 2000, do you know how many AL hurlers have produced an ERA below 2.20? Try one, and that was Pedro Martinez in 2000 when he posted a 1.74 ERA in one of the greatest performances in the modern era. Moreover, since 1980 only two AL hurlers who qualified for the ERA crown have posted a better ERA, Pedro (he also had a 2.07 marl in 1999) and Roger Clemens (1.93 in 1990, 2.05 in 1997).

(2) Greinke leads the AL with a 1.06 WHIP. CC Sabathia is second with a 1.13 mark.

(3) Greinke is second in the AL with 224 Ks, in just 210.1 innings mind you, good for a 9.58 K/9 mark (Justin Verlander leads the way with a total of 239 punchouts).

(4) Greinke is third in the AL in innings pitched with those 210.1 innings (Roy Halladay has tossed 214 innings, Sabathia 213.1).

(5) Greinke has tossed six complete games. Only one other AL hurler has thrown more than four, and that is the league leader Roy Halladay who has tossed seven.

(6) Only four times in his 30 trips to the hill has Greinke failed to last six innings in an outing. Think about that. Eighty-seven percent of the time when he has taken the hill he has gone at least six innings. The four times he failed to he still pitched five innings. Moreover, Greinke has tossed 24 quality starts, the second best mark in the AL behind Felix Hernandez.

So to review, Greinke is first in ERA and WHIP, second in strikeouts, third in innings, second in complete games and second in quality starts. And you think someone else deserves to be the AL Cy Young winner?

As I started with off the top, hopefully the guys that vote for the award don’t say ‘yeah, that’s great, but he only has 14 victories’ and vote for someone else. At least it doesn’t look like anyone is going to hit the 20 victory plateau and that should help. Newsflash guys, wins are a horrific way to judge a pitchers effort. I can’t even believe I still have to say that, but some people still don’t seem to get it.

How do I handicap the race? Here are my top-5 with a couple of weeks left.

5 – Roy Halladay. If not for his struggles in August (2-4, 4.71 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) he would likely be vying for the second spot.

4 – CC Sabathia. He leads the league in wins (17) while posting a tremendous set of overall numbers: 3.42 ERA, 178 Ks, 1.13 WHIP in 213.1 innings.

3 – Justin Verlander. A bit more dominating than Sabathia with his league leading 239 Ks, Verlander also has a slightly better ERA (3.34) while posting a strong WHIP (1.17).

2 – Felix Hernandez. Another unsung hero. Hernandez is second in the league with an ERA of 2.52, fourth in K (193), fifth in WHIP (1.15) and fifth in innings pitched (207.1).

1 – Zack Greinke. You read about why this guy should be the clear cut winner above despite having “only” 14 wins.

One last note. ESPN has a tool called the Cy Predictor, and while I frequently disagree with things that are spoken or written about at ESPN, I have to admit that it looks like they got it right this time as Greinke leads their list as well.

By Ray Flowers

Today vs. Tomorrow

What kind of person are you? Do you spend money as soon as you cash that work check, or do you put it away and save for that house you and your spouse have planned to buy? While this may seem like an odd question to pose given the nature of this blog, the truth is that baseball team’s deal with the same issue on an almost daily basis. What am I talking about? A little background first.

The Yankees currently sit in first place in the AL East, 2.5 games ahead of the Red Sox going into their matchup tonight. This is hardly enough of gap for the Yankees to do anything but plow ahead continuing to do what they have done thus far (no one is going to be taken a vacation on the bench to rest their bodies).

Joba Chamberlain, the Yankees starter on Thursday night, is 7-2 on the year with a 3.58 ERA over his 20 starts this season. Those are certainly respectable numbers, especially considering a few of the rough outings that Joba has given this year. Still, in his 20 trips to the hill he has allowed three or fewer runs 17 times which would be simply terrific if not for the fact that Joba has failed to last six innings in nine of those starts (45 percent of the time). However, Joba has pitched very well of late having won each of his last three games during which time he has 19 Ks, eight walks, a 0.83 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. That’s dealing folks. So what did ESPN’s Buster Olney say when talking about Chamberlain today? Here is what he said (I’m paraphrasing, but it’s awfully close) – Joba is on a “hard” innings pitched count this season of 160, and he will not, under any circumstance, exceed that number.

Why is that? The team is concerned that they could blow out Joba’s arm early if they don’t allow him to build up arm strength over the years. While I think this is a preposterous position to take, there is some obvious validity to their concerns, especially since Joba has never been a big innings pitched guy. Here are his innings totals since his days at Nebraska in college.

2005: 118.2
2006: 89.1
2007: 112.1
2008: 100.1
2009: 110.2

Obviously it wouldn’t make a heck of a lot of sense to let a guy add 100-innings to his previous high in innings pitched, so I can sympathize with that line of thought. At the same time, did anyone worry about pitch or inning counts back when a guy like Roger Clemens, who Joba is often compared to, was tossing 254 innings the season he was 23 years old (the same age as Joba)? Or how about the 7-straight seasons, starting with that year, that the Rocket eclipsed 225-innings pitched? Have today’s players become “wussified” – a word I’m petitioning Webster’s to add to their dictionary by the way. I’ll leave that argument for another day.

The bottom line is this – should a club like the Yankees worry about protecting their investment, one that could pay dividends for the next decade, at the expense of the current season? What if Joba goes 5-0 in his next six starts with a 1.95 ERA? Should the Yankees still shut him down because he has reached his innings pitched limit? And don’t think this is just a Yankees situation as other youngsters like Rick Porcello, Mat Latos and Clayton Kershaw could also see their workload curtailed as the season winds down (that matters little in the case of Latos since the Padres have nothing to play for, but what about Kershaw who’s Dodgers could play well into October? He tossed 169 innings last season between Double-A and the bigs so does that mean the Dodgers let him hit 200 this season? At his current pace Kershaw might push up against that total during the regular season. Will they shut him down come playoff time if he is their best pitcher? That would certainly take some massive huevos rancheros – and yes, I know that makes no sense).

I don’t know what the answer is, but I can tell you this – if I’m a fan of a team, or I have that guy on my fantasy roster, I certainly don’t want his team to “wussify” him at the expense of immediate success. Damn it I want my 50-inch flat screen. I could care less about that house I’m not going to be able to afford for another eight years.

By Ray Flowers

It’s Surreal

Normally I pull on my glasses, open up the spreadsheets, and go to town. If you’ve ready any of my work you know that I love numbers, the universal language as they call it, and I sprinkle them liberally through most of my work. Sometimes I also toss in a pulp culture reference or two, I’m always fond of dropping a Jessica Alba or Britney Spears reference, and sometimes I even attempt to draw out a laugh or two with my quirky sense of humor (you can hear more of that each day, Monday through Friday, on the Fanball.com podcast that I co-host with Kyle Elfrink at 8-9 AM, PST). As a result of all of that, I usually avoid outright opinion pieces, but with some of the goings on in the NFL of late I felt it would be worth my time to address some things.

With everyone in the world freaking out about performance enhancing drugs and how their presence has tainted basically a decade worth of accomplishments in major league baseball, it seems to me that football has largely been getting a free pass by fans and the media, and I’m not quite sure why that is. Not to dwell on the negative, but here are a few NFL stories that have made the rounds of late.

The Tragic Death of Steve McNair: It appears that McNair, married with four kids, was having an affair with a 20 year old woman who, it appears, shot him while he slept four times before turning the gun on herself. It does little good to harp on a man who has lost his life, but what he heck was a married man doing running around with a gal who could have almost been his daughter (McNair was 36 years old)?

The DUI/Manslaughter Case of Donte Stallworth: Donte Stallworth was drunk with a blood alcohol level of .126, well above the legal limit in Florida of 0.08, when he struck and killed a pedestrian (there are also unconfirmed reports that he may also tested positive for marijuana). He was forthcoming with the police from the start, a fact that played into the court sentencing him to just 30 days in jail for his crime (he was released six days early for good behavior). I have no idea what kind of penal system we have in the United States these days when you can be drunk and kill someone in your car yet get less time in jail then some months have days, but at least the NFL got it right when commissioner Roger Goodell suspended Stallworth indefinitely, especially since this is not his first run in with the league and its substance abuse policy.

The Buffon – aka Travis Henry: Former star running back Travis Henry is currently awaiting sentencing for his involvement in a cocaine trafficking venture he was busted for being a part of. He likely faces years in jail, potentially up to 10, for his crimes. His lawyer is claiming his client was “duped” into joining the drug ring and therefore should be given a light sentence. Maybe he was also “duped” into having nine children with nine different women as well? Henry is a disgrace to humanity.

The Suspension of Calvin Pace: The Jet’s linebacker tested positive for violating the league’s performance enhancing substance clause – i.e. he got popped for steroids. As a result he was suspended for four games. Of course his defense was the usual – it wasn’t steroids but a tainted over the counter supplement that got him in trouble. Will anyone ever step up to the plate and just admit the truth? You think this excuse would work in baseball?

And that’s kinda the whole point of this rant today. In baseball a player suspected of once upon a time taking steroids is thrown to the wolves. Guys like Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa have all likely had their legacies tarnished to the point that they will never recover, regardless of the fact that none of them ever tested positive for steroids. Yet in the NFL we have a guy suspended for steroids and he’ll be back and playing soon enough with no one giving a rat’s ass as long as he makes plays on Sunday’s. Even worse, the NFL has become a stomping ground not just for cheaters but drug addicts, spousal abusers, womanizers and worse – a place where the on the field violence has seeped into to pretty much every aspect of these players lives to the point where many of them no longer seem capable of making rational, adult decisions. Maybe all you football lovers out there should think of that the next time you down a baseball player for possibly ingesting a PED, because in comparison to what is common place in the NFL anymore, my get-up-out-of-my-seat-outrage at baseball players just doesn’t exist.

By Ray Flowers