History is Happening

Usually I mention players in alphabetical order in my BaseballGuys.com article, but today I’m breaking that mold as I felt that the historic work of one Phillies hurler deserved to lead off the show.

Am I talking about Roy Halladay? Nope, but I did write about him yesterday in Is It Safe? Today I’m going to discuss the history making run that Cliff Lee has provided, and if you think I’m using hyperbole, which I have to admit I do fall into on occasion, your wrong. Lee threw 8.2 scoreless innings against the Reds Wednesday night, and with the victory in that outing he moved to 5-0 on the month. That’s not historic you say? You’d be right there. However, he also posted a 0.45 ERA for the month. I’ve got your attention now don’t I? When you combine that effort with his work in June (5-0 with a 0.21 ERA) – now we’re cooking you might be thinking. In fact, Lee’s two months of near perfection have enabled him to become just the third pitcher in the history of baseball to have two separate months in one season in which a pitcher has won at least five games (without a loss) while producing an ERA under 1.00. How amazing is that? Oh, in case you were wondering who the other two men were, here you go.

Bob Gibson (1968): 6-0 with a 0.50 ERA in June and July. Yeah, he went 12-0 with a 0.50 during that stretch. Talk about amazing.

Walter Johnson (1913): 5-0 with a 0.24 ERA (April) and 6-0 with a 0.81 ERA (July).

Now you see why I led off the piece with this news.

Since the All-Star Break Ryan Braun is hitting .357 with nine homers, 27 RBI, 35 runs and 12 steals in 42 games. Yeah, he’s good.

For those of you in NL-only leagues, Chris Heisey was activated from the DL today (he had been out with an oblique issue). I’m not sold that the Reds will play him every day, but with 12 homers, 38 RBI and 36 runs in 217 at-bats he is on a pace that would net him 28 homers, 88 RBI and 83 runs scored over 500 at-bats.

How unlucky has Felix Hernandez been this year? Last year he went 13-12, and this season he is currently 13-11 with the month of September to go. Still, in his 11 losses he permitted three or fewer earned runs six times. However, that likely wouldn’t faze Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum of the Giants who have been criminally supported by their offense. I hope you’re sitting down before you read this – it’s pretty amazing

Zero ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 3 outings
M. Cain 4-0 in 5 outings
Lincecum 5-1 in 7 outings

How do you lose games when you don’t give up an earned run. Giants’ hitters should be especially proud of themselves.

One ER Allowed
MadBum 4-3 in 10 outings
M. Cain 3-1 in 6 outings
Lincecum 6-0 in 9 outings

Two ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 4 outings
M. Cain 1-2 in 6 outings
Lincecum 0-2 in two outings

What are the trio’s records in those games in which they’ve allowed two or fewer earned runs? How about 27-11. What that means though is that if they allow more than two runs the trio is just 4-21 on the year.

Jesus Montero is finally up with the Yankees. A prodigious hitter with a luminous future, scouts predict that Montero will be a middle of the order bat for years to come. The 21 year old catcher likely won’t see much time behind the plate, his defense lags well behind his bat, but he should see a fair amount of work in the DH spot, at least against left-handed pitching. He’s a must start at this point in AL-only leagues, and if you are desperate from some offense at your second catcher spot in mixed leagues you can take a flier on Montero and probably not end up looking too stupid.

By Ray Flowers

Is It Safe?

Just when you thought it was safe to back into the water — that was a tag line from the movie Jaws, a timeless classic about a rogue great white shark with a taste for human flesh (it’s still a great flick after all these years). In a similar vein, just when you thought it was safe to give up on the slumping Andre Ethier — he goes out outs together a modest 4-game hitting that includes six hits, three runs, a homer, and five RBI over his last two outings. His production has been as unsteady as a boat in the high seas as he hit .385 in April, just .244 in August, and has hit a mere .221 with one homer in 140 at-bats against lefties. Still, with a solid final month of health he could hit .300 with 70 RBI and 80 runs scored, so it hasn’t been a total washout (he’s hitting .294 with 56 RBI and 65 runs scored).

How good is Roy Halladay? Not only does he have 6-straight years of 16 victories and twice as many wins (185) as loses (91) in his career, but he’s a consistency beast. In 2010 he had a 2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .245 BAA. In 2011 those numbers are 2.47, 1.04 and .243. You have copious amounts of success when you post a 7.30 and 7.64 K/BB ratio (his marks in 2010 and 2011). In case you were wondering, Halladay’s worst monthly ERA was 3.00 in May, and his worst WHIP total was his 1.17 mark from the just finished month of August. Felix Hernandez, one of the best pitchers in the game, has season long marks of 3.37 and 1.20.

Justin Morneau is suffering some minor concussion related symptoms so he is going to be shut down for a few days. I wish the guy all the best because the man has been beat down by injury over the past year. Over his 68 games played this season he’s batting .227 with four homers and 30 RBI and a .618 OPS.

Sergio Santos has been dynamic for the White Sox this year to help stabilize a bullpen that was disastrous at the start of the year. Santos has a 12.68 K/9 mark, has allowed only three homers over 54.2 innings, and has converted 28 of 32 save chances. He’s also allowed just one run over his last 17 outings.

Tim Stauffer gave up seven runs while recording only five outs Tuesday. Blowups like that happen on occasion, but the truly amazing part of his outing is that he gave up all those runs while allowing one measly hit. How is that possible you say? Well, he walked seven batters (as an aside, what kind of manager leaves his pitcher in the game to walk seven batters?). Stauffer walked in a run when Hiroki Kuroda was issued a free pass. That finally got Stauffer removed from the game. Luckily for Timbo, Anthony Bass came into the game and allowed a salami (three of the runs were Stauffer’s).Tim’s ERA went from 3.42 to 3.76 with the outing.

Stephen Strasburg will make his triumphant comeback from Tommy John surgery when he takes the hill for the Nats on September 6th. Strasburg should have success right away, his stuff is simply too good not to, but avoid getting too far ahead of yourself. He’s dominated in the minors with 25 Ks and just three walks in 14.1 innings, and his fastball is sitting regularly at 96 mph, but he’s still yet to throw 75 pitches in a minor league outing. That sounds an awful lot like he will be a five inning pitcher to me for the rest of this season.

By Ray Flowers

Worth Pointing Out

Beyonce is pregnant. Add her to the list of starlets who have jumped on the bandwagon of babies of late. Is it just me or does it seem like everyone but me, who is over 25 that is, has kids? I feel like an outsider when I walk down the street. Strollers, baby wipes, crying/screaming kids… I mean, who doesn’t want that?

Now back to your regularly scheduled program.

Quick, what team does Robert Andino play for? Do you even know which position? Does it matter might be the more pertinent question? The answers are Orioles, second (72 games), shortstop (23 games) and third (12), and yes. Of course a player who qualifies at multiple spots means something, but it’s what he is doing on offense right now that is so exciting. OK, I might be a tad bit optimistic by making it seem like he is excelling, but he has stolen seven bases while scoring 23 runs over his last 40 games. It ain’t great production, but if you’re in an AL-only league, or a really deep mixed league that uses middle and corner infielders, you should be aware of who he is.

Yovani Gallardo is a confounding player to own, there’s no two ways around that. Sometimes he excels at shutting down the opponent. At other points, he’s a disaster. Still, the guy can be dominating when he’s in the groove, and boy is in he the groove right now. Over his last eight starts Gallardo is 5-2. However, he’s been even better than that wonderful record would indicate with a 1.80 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and, most importantly, he’s just not walking anyone leading to an amazing 6.50 K/BB ratio. All told he is one of only four NL hurlers who has 15 wins, 150 Ks, a 3.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.25. The others are Ian Kennedy, Clayton Kershaw and Roy Halladay.

Carlos Gonzalez leads baseball with 30 RBI in 21 games in August. His total is one more than that of Curtis Granderson who leads the AL. Who leads baseball in homers in the month? How about Granderson, Dan Uggla and Evan Longoria who all have 10 long balls, one more than Joey Votto and CarGo have. In terms of runs scored, Granderson leads that pack as well with 27 runs in 25 games, three more than Ryan Braun who leads the NL and four more than Corey Hart who is second in the NL.

Derek Jeter injured his knee when he fouled a ball off it over the weekend. He’s likely to miss a few days with the injury. The setback comes at an awful time for Jeter as he has pushed his season long average up to .296. How has he done that? Jeter is hitting .344 over his last 39 games and over his last 23 games he’s been as good as just about any hitter in baseball posting a .398 batting average in August. The only batters with a better average in the month are Aramis Ramirez (.409) and Alex Avila (.400).

Joe Mauer is out of the Twins’ lineup Monday, the fifth straight game he has missed. This is yet another example of why I tell people all the time to avoid spending an early draft pick on a catcher – they are just so injury prone. Mauer is still hitting a passable .287, though that is light years from his .324 career mark, and he has all of one home run making him less valuable that a guy like Ryan Hanigan who is hitting .270 with six homers and four more RBI (29 to 25). Think back to draft day – was Hanigan even drafted? Even if he was, it was likely 20 rounds after Mauer went off the board.

By Ray Flowers

Best Duo Ever?

Do the Braves have the best lefty-righty duo in modern big league history out of the bullpen?

Craig Kimbrel is up to 39 saves, the highest total in baseball. Kimbrel is also sporting a 14.51 K/9 mark and that mark would be the 7th best mark in the history of baseball for any pitcher who has tossed 60 innings in a season. Kimbrel has allowed eight hits in his last 16.2 innings and on the year he is holding batters to a .174 BAA. Oh yeah, his last blown save was on June 8th (he’s converted 21-straight chances).

Jonny Venters has even better ratios with a 1.11 ERA an a 0.94 WHIP. He’s also struck out more than a batter per inning 0 79 in 72.2 innings – and he’s given up only one long ball on the year (he’s given up only two in his career of 155.2 innings). Why only one homer allowed? Look at that INSANE ground ball rate of 74.8 percent. That’s nearly impossible to sustain, though after last years 68.4 percent mark Venters is starting to look like a guy who might be able to maintain that phenomenal rate. Oh, and good luck getting a hit off him as he’s even better in terms of batting average against with a .156 mark.

Just how good is the duo this season? I’m going to add their numbers together and then compare it to some of the ace starting pitchers in the league. Prepare to be shocked. Kimbrel/Venters would be in the NL Cy Young award talk if they posted these numbers as a starting pitcher.

Braves duo: 13-3, 1.40 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 11.97 K/9, 3.27 K/BB in 135.1 IP

Josh Beckett: 10-5, 2.46 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 3.43 K/BB in 157 IP
Roy Halladay: 15-5, 2.56 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 7.91 K/BB in 189.2 IP
Cole Hamels: 13-7, 2.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.11 K/9, 4.43 K/BB in 172 IP
Clayton Kershaw: 15-5, 2.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.75 K/9, 4.33 K/BB in 183.2 IP
Justin Verlander: 18-5, 2.31 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9.06 K/9, 4.86 K/BB in 202.2 IP
Jered Weaver: 14-6, 2.10 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 7.55 K/9, 3.76 K/BB in 188.1 IP

See what I’m saying about Kimbrel/Venters being elite? If you get a chance to watch the duo work the 8th and 9th innings do yourself a favor and do it. Pull up a chair, crack open a beer, and watch why  Braves’ game are done after seven innings – you simply aren’t going to score against this duo.

RANDOM MUSINGS – Stephen Strasburg

Don’t get too excited about Stephen Strasburg. If he has any kind of physical hiccup the Nationals will shut him down, an in his next minor league outing he’ll be limited to 65 pitches. Strasburg will likely be really good when he’s on the hill, but I’m thinking he’s a five inning type the ROTW, so don’t go overboard with your expectations for 2011. Also, for those of you in keeper leagues, look at how the Nationals handled Jordan Zimmerman this season if you want to know what to expect from Strasburg next year. That’s right, I’m thinking 160 innings for SS next year, so factor that in to your 2012 rankings.

By Ray Flowers

Maddux or Halladay?

There’s been some back and forth about whether or not, at their peak, that Roy Halladay or Greg Maddux was the better pitcher. I came down on the side of Maddux, while most others seemed to favor Halladay. Here are a few thoughts about their peak value, as well as their career long exploits.

Maddux: 8 All-Star Games, 4 Cy Young Awards (1992-95), 18 Gold Gloves
Halladay: 8 All-Star Games, 2 Cy Young Awards (2003, 2010), 0 Gold Gloves

Maddux: Top-5 in ERA 10 times, Top-5 in WHIP 10 times
Halladay: Top-5 in ERA 7 times, Top-5 in WHIP 6 times

Maddux: Top-5 in IP 11 times, Top-5 in WAR 11 times
Halladay: Top-5 in IP 8 times, 6 times

Who had the best four year span of pitching? Come on now.

Maddux (1992-95): 75-29, 1.98 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 6.97 K/9, 4.16 K/BB, ERA+ 200
Not only did Maddux win 4-straight Cy Young awards, he posted a 4-year ERA under 2.00. Oh, and that ERA+ mark points out that his ERA was, literally, 100 percent better than the league average (If you had a 3.00 ERA, and the league ERA was 3.00 it would be 3.00/3.00 = 1.00). His ERA was 1.98 while the leagues mark was 3.96.

Halladay (2006-10): 90-43, 2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.89 K/9, 4.86 K/BB, ERA+148
Halladay won 15 more games, but he also lost 14 more. His ERA was nearly a full run higher, and in a surprise to most I would bet, Maddux produced a better K/9 mark in our four year comparison.

Maddux was a more durable pitcher. Think about this. As great as Halladay is, for all those innings he eats up, he hasn’t even tossed half as many innings as Maddux did in his career and he’s already 34 years old (2,482 innings compared to 5008.1). How many more elite seasons does Doc have left in his body?

I just can’t see how anyone could side with Halladay here.

ODDS AND ENDS

J.J. Hardy continues to impress. Since June 1st he has 21 homers, tied with Albert Pujols for the major league lead. Stick that in your pipe and smoke it. On the the year his 23 homers are 13 more than Orioles’ shortstops hit the last three years. Wow. He also leads AL shortstops with a .988 fielding percentage.

Zack Greinke might be 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP on the road, but in 10 starts at home with the Brewers he has gone 8-0 with a 3.36 ERA an a 1.03 WHIP. Toss in a stupendous 11.89 K/9 mark and 9.44 K/BB ratio and you can make an argument that he has been the best “home” pitcher in baseball this year.

Casper Wells has only 250 big league at-bats, but he’s hit .296 with 13 homers, 41 RBI and 39 runs scored in that time. Dealt to the Mariners from the Tigers in the Doug Fister deal, Wells has taken off hitting .341 with five homers, 12 RBI, two steals an a 1.102 OPS in just 12 games. For those of you looking for a waiver-wire boost there aren’t likely to be many options performing better right now.

Finally, don’t forget to sign up for this weeks fantasy baseball contest that will be held on Friday. You can sign up to play me in the one day contest, it’s FREE, and you can win real money. For more see Win $100 FREE Taking on BBGuys.

By Ray Flowers

Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

By Ray Flowers

Two Weeks

photo © 2009 petercruise | more info (via: Wylio)

Everyone always likes to take things out of context. Come on, admit it, you’ve done it yourself.

Player A goes 6-for-10 and you want to add him to your club even though he hit .218 last year.

Player B throws a shutout and you want to add him at the cost of a guy who has 175 Ks last year.

Britney Spears is a great singer. Well, if the “context” is me and her in a direct competition, than she is a great singer.

(For more on the idea of “context” make sure you give Context Revisited a read).

Today the context that we will use is FOURTEEN DAYS as in the last 14 days of the 2011 season. When we look at that tiny sample size just look at the craziness that we find.

* Ben Zobrist leads all of baseball with 16 runs scored in just 12 games played. He’s totally going to score more than 210 runs this season. Freddy Sanchez and Aramis Ramirez haven’t scored a single run the past 14 days.

* Mark Ellis and Miguel Tejada haven’t knocked in a single run the past two weeks. Lance Berkman has 17 RBI.

* Adam Lind leads baseball with six homers and he’s second with 15 RBI. To compare, Adrian Gonzalez has three homers and 12 RBI. Is there a single person out there who would prefer to have Lind over A-Gone on their team? If you raised your hand “yes” on that one then your must be related to Lind.

* Prince Fielder is hitting .149, the same mark as Starlin Castro. Anyone want to take me up on my bet that Matt Joyce (.457) doesn’t nearly triple those two in batting average this season?

* Troy Tulowitzki, you remember, the guy everyone was saying would be the most productive fantasy player in the game about three weeks ago after his massive start to the year, has hit .093 the past two weeks. He’s also posted an OPS of .426 in that time. Tulo’s career SLG is higher than that at .497.

* Colby Lewis has a HR/9 mark of 2.57. Anyone out there think that they Lewis is going to end the year with HR/9 mark more than double double previous his previous level (it was 0.94 last year)?

* Rarely is there ever an absolute in the world, but in this case there certainly is one. Shaun Marcum, Jason Hammel, Jhoulys Chacin and Josh Tomlin have 100 percent left on base percentage marks the past two weeks. Given that no one is perfect, and that the big league average is usually right around 70 percent, you know which way this number is going for all for men – drastically downward.

* The last two weeks five pitchers in baseball have an ERA under 1.00 – Shaun Marcum, Trevor Cahill, Jason Hammel, Vance Worley and Madison Bumgarner. It’s possible that at the end of the year that this five-some of arms will have a combined ERA of 4.00.

* I know that Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, but I’m fairly certain he won’t be able to maintain his 18.00 K/BB rate from the past two weeks. I’m also going to go out on a limb and say that Daniel Hudson (17.00) and David Price (14.00) won’t be able to keep up their paces either. How can I say that? The single season record, for a minimum of 162 innings pitched, is 11.00 by Bret Saberhagen in 1994.

Remember folks – context and sample size are key. If you focus to so closely on what is right in front of you there might be situations that arise in which you actually think that Britney Spears is a great singer. Pay attention to what is going on at all times, but never lose site of the context.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 6, 2011

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury has a 14-game hitting streak.

(2) Roy Halladay and David Price dominating.

(3) Roy Oswalt back acting up. Could he be DL bound?

(4) Jonathan Broxton to the DL.

(5) Joe Mauer still a few weeks away.

(6) Josh Hamilton could be back at end of May.

(7) Eric Hosmer called up by Royals. Who is Eric Hosmer?

By Ray Flowers

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a wonderful collaborative effort with PaulSporer.com. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-100 STARTERS

1 Roy Halladay
2 Felix Hernandez
3 Tim Lincecum
4 CC Sabathia
5 Cliff Lee
6 Jon Lester
7 Clayton Kershaw
8 Josh Johnson
9 Justin Verlander
10 Dan Haren
11 Cole Hamels
12 Jered Weaver
13 Roy Oswalt
14 Tommy Hanson
15 Mat Latos
16 Ubaldo Jimenez
17 Yovani Gallardo
18 Chad Billingsley
19 Max Scherzer
20 David Price
21 Wandy Rodriguez
22 Zack Greinke
23 Francisco Liriano
24 James Shields
25 Ryan Dempster
26 Josh Beckett
27 Matt Cain
28 Chris Carpenter
29 Ricky Nolasco
30 Brett Anderson
31 Jonathan Sanchez
32 Ricky Romero
33 Brandon Morrow
34 Ted Lilly
35 Shaun Marcum
36 Matt Garza
37 C.J. Wilson
38 Colby Lewis
39 John Danks
40 Hiroki Kuroda
41 Tim Hudson
42 John Lackey
43 Johnny Cueto
44 Phil Hughes
45 Daniel Hudson
46 Madison Bumgarner
47 Gavin Floyd
48 Edinson Volquez
49 Brett Myers
50 Trevor Cahill
51 Jaime Garcia
52 Clay Buchholz
53 Scott Baker
54 Jordan Zimmerman
55 Ian Kennedy
56 Jake Peavy
57 Brian Matusz
58 Jonathan Niese
59 James McDonald
60 Ervin Santana
61 Gio Gonzalez
62 Carlos Zambrano
63 Jhouyls Chacin
64 Jeremy Hellickson
65 Clayton Richard
66 Jorge De La Rosa
67 Jair Jurrjens
68 Carl Pavano
69 A.J. Burnett
70 Edwin Jackson
71 Javier Vazquez
72 Bud Norris
73 Brett Cecil
74 Mike Pelfrey
75 Fausto Carmona
76 Justin Masterson
77 Anibal Sanchez
78 Tim Stauffer
79 Jake Westbrook
80 Travis Wood
81 Bronson Arroyo
82 Aaron Harang
83 Jeff Neimann
84 J.A. Happ
85 Wade Davis
86 Dallas Braden
87 Mark Buehrle
88 Randy Wolf
89 Randy Wells
90 Homer Bailey
91 Joe Blanton
92 Barry Zito
93 Kyle Drabek
94 Rick Porcello
95 Michael Peneda
96 Daisuke Matsuzaka
97 Carl Pavano
98 R.A. Dickey
99 Mike Minor
100 Derek Lowe

* I see a lot of talent in the 25 to 40 range on this list which leads me to think that you don’t have to reach for starting pitching this year. Wait, I say that all the time. Trust me, if you go into a standard mixed league with a staff of Beckett, Nolasco, Anderson and Lilly – your going to have a darn solid pitching staff.

* I have Clay Buchholz at #52, and I know many will disagree with that. I see a guy who had an ERA of 2.33 last year though he likely should have had a mark at least a run higher. He gets grounders at a nice clip, but he doesn’t strike many out, walks batters at the big league average, and was exceedingly lucky with both his LOB% (79.0) and his HR/9 mark (0.47). When those numbers normalize, and they will, I’d be be shocked if his ERA was below 3.70.

* Gio Gonzalez at #61? Though successful last season his K/9, while still strong at 7.67, was a about batter below his career rate. He also walked more than four batters per nine, and that was a three year best. Like Buchholz, he also has little chance of keeping his ERA within a run of his mark from last season (3.23) given his LOB% (78.1) and HR/9 mark (0.67).

* The 60′s are the land of the young (Jhouyls Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson) and the old (Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett).

* I’d take a shot on the potential upside dominance of Bud Norris (72) over the steady but boring Bronson Arroyo (77), Derek Lowe (78) and Jake Westbrook (79).

* Tim Stauffer (78) – All you need to know about this righty can be found in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer.

* The 80′s are populated with veterans you know but might overlook. Mark Buehrle (81) has issues striking out batters, but he throws 200 innings, wins in the double-digits, and rarely kills your ratios. Aaron Harang (82) was actually a lot better than you think the past three years despite outwardly looking lost (7.40 K/9, 2.88 K/BB). If healthy, Petco could be a huge boost for him.

* The 90′s have tons of unproven talent.

Homer Bailey (93) – See Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Kyle Drabek (94) – Likely to open the year in the Blue Jays rotation. He has an advanced understanding of pitching.

Michael Pineda (95) – I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.

Mike Minor (99) – Battling Brandon Beachy for the 5th spot in the Braves’ rotation. Minor wore down at the end of last season, but he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker

All anyone will be talking about today is the Cliff Lee signing, and while I too will lead off with his improbable deal with the Phillies, there are some other moves that are worthy of at least throwing a paragraph at.

Cliff Lee: Ted Carlson already covered the Phillies swopping in a and nabbing the top pitcher on the market out from under the Yankees and Rangers in Phil-Lee Surprise. Here is my favorite line from the piece. “That’s the best quartet that Philly has seen since Boyz II Men.” Classic. Debate will rage about if this is the best foursome of pitchers since the Braves’ in the 1990, the Orioles in the early 70′s or the Indians in 50′s, but let’s just say Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt is a flat out amazing group of arms. As pointed out by ESPN’s Jayson Stark, the top-4 now sports the 2010 major league leader in Wins Above Replacement (Lee), the NL leader in WHIP (Oswalt at 1.03), the NL Cy Young winner (Halladay), and the best left-handed pitcher in the Senior Circuit after 7/1 (Hamels posted a 2.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and a 4.24 K/BB mark over his final 118.1 IP). As was also pointed out by @ggiants on Twitter, the World Series Champion San Francisco Giants beat all four of those pitchers in the 2010 playoffs, so don’t go coronating the Phillies as the 2011 champs just yet.

Adam LaRoche/Derrek Lee: It would appear that the Nationals, Orioles and D’backs all need a starting first baseman, and these two are obviously the top-2 options on the free agent market. Both hitters bring solid bats and can be expected to hit 20 homers with at least 80 RBI, and while that isn’t overly exciting by any means, there is nary a team in the game that wouldn’t take that kind of production if the price was right. Lee is likely to command bigger dollars even though he is coming off a slightly depressed season (.260-19-80) and despite the fact that he is four years old at 35. Either one would be a nice pickup at this point with all the big names flying off the free agent board, and neither is going to be poor with teams throwing around money like a drunken frat boy at a gentleman’s club.

Russell Martin: It appears a near certainty that Martin will join the Yankees which sends the wheels moving (he’ll need to pass a physical to make it official). (1) Martin will sign a one year deal with the club, though it’s really a 2-year deal since Martin will be arbitration eligible for the 2012 season, so the Yankees can choose to keep him for one more season if they so desire. (2) It appears that despite coming back off hip surgery, the Yankees are confident that Martin will be able to catch the majority of the time. (3) His signing means that Jesus Montero will likely get some more time to work on his glove in the minors. The dude is ready to hit big league pitching, but many “in the know” worry if he will ever be able to handle the rigors of catching everyday in the big leagues. (4) The real question at this point is what does Martin have left? The hip issue is a huge concern in it’s own right given that a catcher sometimes has to squat and all, but as concerning is the lack of any type of production from his bat. From 2006-08 Martin’s average season was .285-14-74-80-16 as he was a fantasy darling. Since then he has produced an average yearly outing of .249-6-40-54-9, which hardly the stuff of legend. Hitting in a loaded lineup in New York, in a great hitter’s park will help, but I would like his outlook a lot better if he wasn’t being counted on to catch four or five days a week. Don’t be swayed by the love of all things Yankees when considering Martin on draft day, 2011.

Hideki Matsui: The Athletics will announce that they have signed Hideki Matsui after he completes his physical (reports are the deal will be for about $4.25 million for one year). It would appear that Godzilla will be asked to take over as the primary DH in Oakland now that Jack Cust has signed with the Mariners (you can read about that move in Hot Stove: December 8, 2010). Matsui finished 2010 well, and that is putting it mildly, as he batted .309 with 11 homers and 37 RBI, not to mention a .955 OPS, over his last 60 games. The end result was a .274-21-84 line that gave at least those three numbers in each of his last five seasons of 450 at-bats (he hit “only” 16 homers in 2003 when he batted .287 with 106 RBI). Oakland isn’t a great place to hit, and it’s not like their lineup is overflowing with talent, but with Matsui you know what you are going to get.

By Ray Flowers