Fact or Fiction

I’m gonna throw some thing on the wall today and see if they stick. Speaking of that, is there anyone out there who hasn’t chucked a piece of pasta at the wall to see if it sticks. I have no idea if that really helps you to decide if the pasta is cooked, but it certainly is fun.

Mark Teixeira has been a disappointment: FICTION.
Tex may not be at his finest, but is it fair to label him a disappointment? Hardly. Mark leads baseball with 79 runs scored which ties him with Brandon Phillips. Add in the fact that Mark has knocked in 81 runs and he is a mere run from being the first 80-80 man in baseball this season. Certainly his batting average is down at .258 (career .287) but he is still on pace for 35 homers, 122 RBI and 119 runs scored. Do you consider that to be a “down” season? I dont when his per 162 game averages are 37 homers, 122 RBI and 104 runs scored.

Johnny Cueto is a fantasy star: FACT.
Over his last eight trips to the hill Cueto has won five games, hasn’t once picked up a loss, and is sporting a sterling 1.55 WHIP. That’s fantasy stardom right there. On the year he has a 3.24 ERA, just 0.04 behind Johan Santana, and his 1.26 WHIP is a hundredth better than Cole Hamels and Yovani Gallardo. By the way, with his 11-2 record Cueto is tied for second in baseball, with Andy Pettitte, in winning percentage amongst hurlers with at least 10 victories at .846. The only man who is better is Ubaldo Jimenez at .895.

Aubrey Huff has been more valuable than Ryan Howard: FACT.
I know it seems crazy, especially when you go back to the start of the season when Howard was going as a top-15 pick while Huff was lucky to be taken in the top-150, but the fact of the matter is that Huff has been a more valuable fantasy contributor. Not only does he qualify at first and the outfield, Huff has provided more fantasy relevant production that Howard in 5×5 leagues of 12 teams according to our Player Rater Tool. Here are the 5×5 numbers.

Huff: .312-20-65-70-5
Howard: .292-23-81-65-1

In fact, Huff has been the 11th most productive hitter in fantasy baseball according to the tool, so where is the NL MVP talk?

Jaime Garcia is a fantasy ace: FICTION.
I know he started out guns a blazing for the Cardinals going 7-3 with a 1.79 ERA in his first 14 starts, but over his last seven trips to the hill his record has been a mere 2-2 record while his ERA has spiked to 4.29. In addition, his K/9 rate over those seven starts is 6.81, and that is far from an impressive number. Has he been really good this season? Of course he has. He is a solid 9-5 on the year, and his 2.53 ERA is 7th in baseball. At the same time his 1.31 WHIP is tied for 57th amongst starters while his total of 97 strikeouts is tied for 54th. Add that all up and according to the aforementioned Player Rater tool he is merely the 50th best pitcher in fantasy baseball this season.

Livan Hernandez has a better ERA than Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Justin Verlander and Dan Haren: FACT.
And I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

Hernandez currently has a 3.12 ERA the 21st, more vomiting, best mark in baseball. For a guy who has posted an ERA of at least 4.83 each of the past four years, and marks of 6.05 and 5.44 the past two years, that is truly astounding. Moreover, Livan hasn’t had a mark under 4.00 since 2005, and his career best mark is 3.20 set back in 2003. Where is my Dramamine?

Prince Fielder stinks to high heave: FICTION.
OK, OK, the 52 RBI are flat out pitiful for a guy who has knocked in at least 102 runners in each of the past three seasons. You’ll get no debate about that from me. At the same time, his other numbers really aren’t that far off of normal. I’m seriously (that’s for Cartman from South Park). Check out his projected production over 162 games this season versus his established career rate.

2010 pace: .267-36-77-95 with a .399 OBP and a .892 OPS
Career: .281-38-104-92 with a .383 OBP and a .926 OPS

Like I said, other than the poor RBI total, Fielder’s other production has pretty much been spot on – even if you didn’t realize it.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 29, 2010

(1) Rangers pick up Jorge Cantu.

(2) Padres bring in Miguel Tejada.

(3) Phillies officially get Roy Oswalt.

(4) Brett Wallace on the move – yet again.

(5) Kerry Wood likely back on Friday. Sorry Chris Perez owners.

(6) Andrew Bailey likely to DL. Michael Wuertz and Craig Breslow to fore?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 22, 2010

(1) Angels deal for Alberto Callaspo, give up Sean O’Sullivan and William Smith. Rick Ankiel activated.

(2) Jamie Moyer has sprained UCL (grade 2), might need TJ Surgery.

(3) Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Brett Myers, Ted Lilly on the block.

(4) Edison Volquez lit up by Nationals.

(5) Josh Johnson, 13-straight starts two or fewer earned runs.

(6) Bobby Jenks removed from closers role.

(7) Brian Roberts could return as early as Friday.

(8) Jacoby Ellsbury takes BP.

By Ray Flowers

Commonalities Wanted

There’s no theme whatsoever to my article today. I just threw everything into a hopper and wrote about the names that fell out. Oh don’t worry, it’s really insightful stuff, there just isn’t a common thread to tie everything together.

Coco Crisp has been activated by the A’s. He hit .590 with five RBI during his rehab work in the minors signaling that his body might finally be right, finally. Still, there are about seven outfielders with the A’s club, so it remains to be seen if he will have a spot in the daily lineup, especially since his skills are so similar to those of Rajai Davis.

Mark DeRosa’s season is over as he will need surgery to repair his injured wrist. In the first year of a $12 million two year contract, DeRosa gave the Giants all of one homer, 10 RBI and 93 at-bats. That’s almost as bad an investment as The Bachelor’s Jake Pavelka made in his lady friend, Vienna Girardi. Oh stop acting like you don’t watch the show – we all know you do.

Josh Hamilton is back, and it appears that he is better than ever before. Josh is hitting .337, has a 16 game hitting streak, and is sporting a .981 OPS. Back in his “breakout” 2008 effort he hit .304 with a .901 OPS. He’s frighteningly talented.

Trevor Hoffman has been awful for most of the year, everyone knows that. However, he has improved tremendously of late and appears on the cusp of reclaiming his 9th inning role. “We kind of talked about that several times today,” manager Ken Macha said. “We’ll see how some things go. That is two good outings in a row, so I’ll talk to him [Thursday] and see how he’s feeling about himself.” If you are a John Axford owner you’ll want to hold on, but make sure Hoffman isn’t on waivers if you play in a deep league.

Jamie Moyer is almost old enough to join AARP as he is 47 years old. Amazingly, he has stuck around long enough to pile up 265 victories. That total places him 10th all-time in victories by a lefty, an it’s also one behind the immortal Bob Feller and three behind Jim Palmer. Need some more info about just how amazing Moyer’s career has been? Since turning 30 he has won 231 games, the sixth most ever from that age to the end of a player’s career. To put that win total in perspective, Roy Oswalt has 142 victories, Tim Hudson 155 and Roy Halladay 156 — in their entire careers.

Buster Posey, everyone’s darling when he was called up, has hit the skids of late with a mere .186 average and a .524 OPS over his last 43 at-bats. His average is still shade over .300 at .303, but his .421 SLG is a pretty pathetic number for a first sacker (the NL average for the position is .458). I know it borders on heresy in some corners, but Posey really needs to pick it up or he could start to lose playing time (he isn’t in the lineup on Tuesday night as Pablo Sandoval is at first with Juan Uribe at third).

Mike Stanton, who I spoke of yesterday in my Around the Horn, June 21st video, deserves to be mentioned again. Here is, in written word, what I spoke of yesterday; you simply cannot have success in the big leagues if you strikeout more than 40 percent of the time. I know it’s a miniscule sample size we’re breaking down with the talented Fish, but 19 whiffs in 43 at-bats gives him a K-rate of 44.2 percent. Chris Davis, basically demoted to the minor because he whiffs too often, owns a K-rate of 34.7 percent in his career. Other noted purveyors of the strikeout follow with their career K-rates in parenthesis: Ryan Howard (32.3), Adam Dunn (32.4), Mark Reynolds (38.2) and Jack Cust (39.1). As you can tell from that list you can be mighty successful in the bigs even if you pile up copious amounts of strikeouts, but if Stanton wants to make his mark this season he’s gonna have to knock like 10 percentage points off his current rate.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 14, 2010

(1) Interleague play returns on Tuesday.

(2) Trade talks heating up – Roy Oswalt, Ty Wigginton, Conor Jackson, Mike Lowell etc.

(3) Jeff Suppan returns to Cardinals.

(4) Pablo Sandoval continues to struggle, hitting .234 last 39 games.

(5) Matt Cain new Giants “ace”?

(6) Chad Qualls likely out in favor of Aaron Heilman at closer for D’backs.

(7) Pedro Alvarez on verge of being called up for Pirates.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May21, 2010

(1) Roy Oswalt requests trade from Astros.

(2) Coco Crisp and Carlos Gomez return to action from injury. Willy Taveras placed on waivers on waivers.

(3) John Maine placed on DL with shoulder issues.

(4) Curtis Granderson about a week from returning from hammy injury.

(5) Breaking down early season struggles of Aaron Hill and Raul Ibanez.

Impact Report – Aaron Hill.

Impact Report – Raul Ibanez.

(6) Luke Scott to play first during interleague playing sending Garrett Atkins to bench. David Ortiz to play some first as well.

(7) Fanball.com will have a daily, 3-hour fantasy sports show from 5-8 PM EST. Starting on June 21st Fanball’s Fantasy Drive will appear daily on Sirius Channel 125 and XM channel 210. Yours truly will be a co-host.

By Ray Flowers

The Wacky World of Baseball

The Rockies made a stupid decision, more star players have ended up on the DL, the Orioles bullpen continues to be a mess and Roy Oswalt has a story that will make you love him.

I don’t get it. The Rockies gave Chris Iannetta a 3-year deal worth $8.3 million. The club then brought in Miguel Olivo in on a 1-year, $2.5 million deal to serve as his the backup. Three weeks into the season, the situation has been reversed. In fact, it’s worse than that as Iannetta has actually been sent down to Triple-A. Does this make any sense? I know that Iannetta is hitting .133 with 11 Ks in 30 at-bats, Olivo is hot as he is hitting .311 with five bombs, but how can the team possibly send out their “starting” catcher after 30 at-bats? Just what in the heck is Chris going to prove at Triple-A? After all, this is a man who has 293 games of big league experience. I know it’s not the best way to compare players, but here is what each man would do based on a 162 game season.

Iannetta: .239-23-86-70 with a .357 OBP and a .799 OPS
Olivo: .244-21-72-63 with a .279 OBP and a .707 OPS

Clearly Iannetta is the more complete hitter, and three weeks doesn’t change that at all. I preach patience all the time in the fantasy game. Clearly, I have to start preaching the same thing to real world teams as the Rockies pulled the classic, knee jerk move of making a move that they will regret when the summer hits.

Jason Bay hit his first homer of the year on Tuesday ending a drought that had reached 108 at-bats dating back to last year. Look for him to relax and possibly take off shortly.

Vladimir Guerrero is playing right field on Tuesday as the Rangers were forced to put Nelson Cruz on the DL with a hamstring issue. I don’t think that is a plan the club should follow. Leave Vlad at DH where he has been ripping it up to the tune of a .371 average, and put David Murphy in the field. Not only does this make the most sense because of the health concerns with Vlad, it also would help my Jed Wars team where I have Murphy as one of my outfielders. Speaking of Jed Wars, here is a link to one of the videos I did for the league. It explains my love of fantasy baseball in The Illustrated Ray Flowers. Do you love my art or what? I know, Picasso has nothing on me.

The Orioles will no longer simply give the ball to Jim Johnson in the ninth Inning. “Whoever can get outs is going to get a chance,” manager Jim Trembley said. “I don’t think there are any roles. There is no closer right now for me.” Seems like Mike Gonzalez will have a good shot at reclaiming the role once he returns. Too bad we have no idea when that might be (a report suggested that he won’t been cleared to throw until Monday).

If you didn’t love Roy Oswalt already, these two stories should clinch it. (1) Oswalt’s parents live in the same town, in the same house, that they have since Roy was a child. Oswalt bought a home that is about ½ a mile from his parents house. The family owns a restaurant there. Oh, and Roy married a gal who is from the same town. Gotta love that. (2) Oswalt’s career was saved by, and I’m not making this up, an electric shock. In 1999 his shoulder was jacked up (it took six Advil for him just to get to sleep). How did he get past it? No, not surgery, but a spark plug. While working on his truck a bolt of electricity ran through his body and fixed his shoulder. If you don’t love all that, I don’t know what to tell you.

Ryan Zimmerman (hamstring) continues to be out of the starting lineup. I’m not ready to call this a Red Sox-like situation with how they handled Jacoby Ellsbury, but if all Z. can do is pinch hit, why not just put him on the DL to make sure both his hamstrings are healthy? He hasn’t played a full game since April 21st.

By Ray Flowers

The Webb Conundrum

Brandon Webb, when healthy, is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Period. Alas, his wonky shoulder limited him to a mere four innings this season leaving the D’backs with one whopper of a decision to make in regards to the future of their organization: should they pick up the $8.5 million option on his contract, do they try to renegotiate the deal at a lower rate, or do they simply let him walk away? Before I get to what their decision appears to be, let me give some background on the situation.

(1) From 2005-2008 Webb tossed at least 220 innings each season. Webb was the only pitcher in baseball who tossed 220-innings in each season from ’05-’08 and he was one of only four who reached the 200-inning level in 5-straight years from 2004-08 (and he threw 208 innings in 2004 following up a 180.2 inning rookie season).

(2) Webb improved his victory total each season from 2004: seven, 14, 16, 18 and 22. From 2005-08 he was one of only six hurlers who won at least 14 games each season, and his total of 70 victories in that time were the most in baseball (Roy Oswalt and Johan Santana were second with 66).

(3) Webb posted an ERA below 3.60 in each season from 2004-08, a feat only two other hurlers could match (Oswalt and Santana again).

(4) Webb racked up at least 164 strikeouts in each of his six big league seasons. Only one other hurler was able to produce at least 160 Ks each year from 2003-08, and it was accomplished by the best lefty in baseball; Johan Santana.

(5) To wrap up this little review, here are the rakings of Webb in a variety of categories for the 2005-08 seasons.

927 IP, the best mark in baseball
70 wins, the best mark in baseball
3.23 ERA, the sixth best mark in baseball
727 strikeouts, the eighth best mark in baseball
10.98 base runners per nine, the 9th best mark in baseball.

Clearly, Webb was one of the most consistently excellent hurlers in the game, though he wasn’t always valued as highly as he should have been in the fantasy game.

Flash forward to 2009. Here is what we know.

Webb was unable to agree to a long-term contract with the D’backs after it was learned that tests on his shoulder showed some irregularities (the club was unable to secure insurance for the deal because of the state of his shoulder). Webb then went out, appeared in one game, had multiple setbacks in his recovery, and eventually was forced to go under the knife. Reports are that the procedure went well, there was less damage than feared, and that his recovery is on track. Given all that what are the D’backs going to do with Webb (officially they have five days after the end of the World Series to determine if they will pick up the $8.5 million option on his current deal)?

Currently the D’backs have a couple of big ticket items in the rotation in Dan Haren ($7.5 million this season) and Dough Davis ($8.75 million this season) and with dead weight like Eric Byrnes ($11 million next season), they are likely getting a bit nervous about their payroll given that across the street Coyotes of the NHL are in dire financial straights (Davis will be a free agent at the end of the year, so they will save a little there if they let him go). With those concerns, paying over $8 million to a guy coming off a season of four innings doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense – these aren’t the Yankees – so it may not happen. In fact, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that he believed that the club will try to sign Webb to 1-year, incentive laden deal instead of simply giving him $8.5 million for 2010.

Time will tell if that ends up being the right call or not, but if it was my money I’d tell Webb to sign on the dotted line with an incentive laden deal, probably one with a second year added on for some security in case he returned to full health, and let er’ rip (this may actually be Arizona’s thinking). But hey, I just write about this stuff and don’t sign anyone’s checks, though judging from the way that some sports teams run their organizations maybe that shouldn’t be the case. I will work for food and a roof over my head too, so if any organization out there needs a hand, just let me know.

By Ray Flowers

For Your Consideration

Monday. The euphoria of the trade deadline bonanza has passed, and now we are back to the “real world” of day-to-day baseball. Today I thought I would touch on a few of the more interesting storylines currently floating around the baseball universe including the odd tale of a seemingly delusion third baseman in Baltimore.

Melvin Mora said this over the weekend if you missed it. “I think I deserve more respect than what I’m getting here,” Mora said. “Don’t give me excuses that I can’t beat Smoltz or I can’t beat Beckett or I can’t beat Lester. I’ve been here nine years. All these guys in the East know me. I’ve made the All-Star team. I deserve respect.” We agree with you Mr. Mora, and if someone is spitting in your face or disparaging your family, then by all means speak up. However, what are we talking about here? Mr. Mora, you are hitting .256 with three home runs and 27 RBI in 285 ABs. How does that compare to the average major league third baseman? Check it:

.269-7-29.

Yes Mr. Mora, you haven’t even been a league average third basemen, so if you feel disrespected, well, how about you start hitting like a major league regular or just shut your pie hole.

Who are they trying to kid? Roy Oswalt had his start pushed back because of a back issue. Now his Saturday start is likely also to be missed as he continues to suffer some pain in the area. Just put him on the DL and let him take the two weeks guys, seems like that’s the way this is going to go so instead of frustrating everyone. Just pull the trigger on the DL stint.

There has been some talk of Albert Pujols and a run at the Triple Crown. Pujols has a two home run lead over Mark Reynolds for the home run lead (34 to 32) in the National League and he is one RBI behind Prince Fielder for the NL RBI lead with 92. However, after hitting just .289 in 97 July at-bats Pujols is down to .314, the eighth best mark in the NL. Given that he has never hit below .314 in a season, plus the addition of Matt Holliday to help him out in the middle of the Cards lineup, Pujols would appear to have a great shot to push that average much closer to .333 by the end of the year (his career average). As mentioned he also is right there in homers and RBI, but in this day and age of offense and specialization, it’s a tall order to expect any man to be able to lead the league in average, home runs and RBI, but if any man can, it’s got to be Pujols. Still, the last man to win the mythical award in the NL was another Cardinal, Joe Medwick, who in 1937, that’s right before the Second World War, hit .374 with 31 home runs and 154 RBI. The last player in the AL? How about Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 when Yaz produced a line of .326-44-121 for the Red Sox.

Brandon Webb is done for 2009 and may not be ready for 2010 after undergoing a “debridement” procedure on his shoulder. What the hell is a debridement? It’s a medical procedure that removes non-healthy tissue and any foreign materials. What that basically means is that they went in and cleaned up his shoulder without needing to do anything invasive. It’s not clear if his labrum or rotator cuff was the central focus of the surgery, but what is clear is that I find it almost impossible to believe that the club will pick up his $8.5 million option for next season. More than likely, the D’backs will give Webb his $1.5 million buyout and see if they can sign him to an incentive laden deal. Given the reluctance of the team to do just that prior to the start of the season because of concerns with his health, it’s certainly not at all out of the realm of possibility that Webb has tossed his last game for the club.

By Ray Flowers