Player Profile: Luis Mendoza

I’ve outdone myself this time. Luis Mendoza, he pitches for the Royals if you were unaware, went 8-10 with a 1.42 WHIP last season. That type of pitching line points to a hurler being barely usable in a league specific setup. So have I run out of things to write about at BaseballGuys? Am I part owner of the Royals? Is Mendoza married to my second cousin? The answer to all of those three question is no, so why write about Mendoza? There must be some reason…

For the totality of the 2012 season, here are some Mendoza numbers:

5.64 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, 1.76 K/BB

As you know, none of those three numbers is even league average. In most cases that would portend doom in my eyes. Does it in the case of this Veracruz, Mexico righty? Don’t give up the faith just yet.

If a guy has a set of numbers like that, in most cases one of two things occur. (A) He’s likely to end up riding buses in the minor leagues very soon or (B) he’s got to have another skill that has led a major league team to use him in a significant role. In the case of Mendoza, it just might be the second situation.

As is often the case with a hurler who doesn’t strike anyone out and walks batters at the league average rate, Mendoza has a pretty impressive sinker at his disposal. After throwing his sinking fastball 80+ percent of the time from 2009-11, Mendoza actually cut back a bit in 2012 throwing the pitch 68 percent of the time as he leaned more heavily on his curve ball throwing it 23 percent of the time (that mark had never been above 11.4 percent during his big league career). By the way he’s really only a two pitch hurler as he threw a change up less than 10 percent of the time in 2012. As for the sinking action on his pitches, they worked to great effect in 2012. Mendoza’s ground ball rate last season was 52 percent, just slightly above his 51 percent career mark. Looks like the switch in the deployment of his pitches didn’t hinder him in the least. Given his only slightly elevated 21 percent line drive rate he was able to produce a 1.92 GB/FB ratio, the 7th best mark in the AL.

As we’ve seen forever, think Derek Lowe, Bronson Arroyo, Justin Masterson etc., pitcher’s can have a ton of success in the real world with a less than ideal skill set in the fantasy game. Taking a look at those three names that I listed, you will probably remember seasons where those guys led you to fantasy championships while in other seasons they doomed you to searching the waiver-wire to try and make up for what was a horrible fantasy effort. That’s often the case with guys that can’t get free outs (strikeouts) and that struggle with their control at times. When that sinker isn’t sinking/diving/darting they just don’t have the stuff or location to consistently get batters out. That up/down nature of sinker ballers is why I rarely get behind guys whose main asset is the ability to induce ground balls unless they can compliment that skill with the ability to miss bats (a ground ball arm who can strike batters out is the panacea of pitching – think Felix Hernandez, David Price and James Shields). Mendoza doesn’t have the ability to miss bats but he was decent during the second half of the season posting a 4.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in the second half of 2012 (remember when when I wrote about Phil Hughes in his Player Profile? In that article I noted that Hughes’ 2012 numbers included a 4.23 ERA and 1.26 WHIP). If Mendoza can cut the walks just a bit, and keep the ball down in the strike zone consistently as he has in the past…

Mendoza is a reserve round speculative pick in mixed leagues at best. The fact is that in most leagues with 12 teams I doubt he will be drafted. I’m not saying you should buck that trend and do so, but I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that Mendoza could run off a series of effective seasons on the bump. He’s never going to produce strikeouts, and his ratios may never be anything better than league, but given that you will be able to add him for nothing in 2013 it might be worth remembering his name early in the season if an injury strikes your club or if you play in a league that uses a head-to-head setup where a 2-start Mendoza might be worth considering rolling out there.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Salvador Perez

I had the gall to suggest in late December that I wasn’t sold on Salvador Perez being a .300 hitter with 20 homer power for 2013. Seems like I touched a nerve because a whole lot of people called me out on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account for the statement. I thought I would take more than 140 characters to try and make my point this week.

* I went beyond just the suggestion on Twitter as I ran a poll asking how folks would draft Perez compared to others at the catcher’s position.

Here’s what the basic argument was with Perez and why most thought he would be a star.

He hit .311 in 148 at-bats in 2011.
He hit .301 in 289 at-bats in 2012.
He hit 11 homers in 76 games in 2012.
Obviously he is therefore going to hit .300 with 20+ homers if he gets 500 at-bats in 2013.

Let’s see…

Yes it is true that Perez has hit .311 over the course of 437 big league at-bats. Is that indicative of what we should expect from him in 2013? Perez posted a .362 BABIP as a first year player and that number predictably regressed in 2012 falling all the way to .299. It certainly happens, but it is a bit strange to see a guy hit .301 with a BABIP below .300. I’d suggest it’s not likely to continue like that, not to mention that his BABIP in the minors in 2011-12 was slightly lower than his big league mark at .311. Just pointing that out.

Following up on the BABIP talk, let’s look at his line drive rate. In 2011 that mark was 29.2 percent. He’d have to be the greatest hitter of all-time to keep that up. He isn’t and he didn’t as the mark fell to 24.2 percent in 2012. That’s still a massive number though, and one that I wouldn’t feel comfortable expecting to occur again in 2013. If logic and history aren’t enough for you to go on here, how about this fact; as a minor leaguer in the 2011-12 Perez posted a line drive rate of 19.9 percent which just so happens to be the big league average. It certainly doesn’t seem wise to expect him to match his current 25.8 percent career mark with the Royals given the totality of the data.

I would also like to point out that this guy just doesn’t walk. He has coaxed a total of 19 walks over the course of his 463 career plate appearances. That rate equates to a walk total of 21 walks per 502 plate appearances. Folks, Adam Dunn walked 26 times in the month of May last year. Moreover, do you know how many guys hit .300 last year with a walk rate as low as the 3.9 percent mark that Perez had? It’s not a long list. Here are the names… there are none. Not a single guy with 502 plate appearances in 2012 hit .300 with a walk rate under 4.0 percent. None. No one did in 2011 or 2010 either. The last guy to do it was Miguel Tejada in 2009 when he hit .313 with a 2.8 percent mark. The problem is that when you don’t see pitches and take a walk you can be pitched to. It’s also very hard for these type of hitters to pull out of a slump when they find themselves in one. It’s true that Perez makes good contact, his K-rate of 8.9 percent is very low enabling him to post a basically league average 0.40 BB/K mark, but the lack of walks are a big concern for me and should be for you as well if you are thinking he’s going to hit .300 year after year.

Sorry folks, but that’s 0-for-3 for Perez if you are trying to make the point that he is a lock to hit .300 in 2013.

What about the power you say?

(1) The easiest thing in the world is to say that ‘he hit 11 homers in 289 at-bats last year so he’ll hit 20 in a full season this year.’ Such an argument, while a good one to make at a bar on a Friday night after five midori sour’s (and let me tell you that you have to be very secure in your manhood to order one of those at a bar), just doesn’t hold up in the light of day. Even if we give Perez 500 at-bats in 2013 as a projection, an I would be remiss if I didn’t state that there were only six catchers in baseball that reached that mark last season, and let him maintain his rate of one homer per 26.3 at-bats he would still only go deep 19 times in 500 at-bats.

(2) Perez has only 14 homers in 437 career big league at bats.

(3) Perez has only 20 homers in 1,278 minor league at-bats.

(4) That’s 34 homers in 1,715 big league at-bats. What would that equate to over our hypothetical 500 at-bat season? That’s 9.9 homers folks.

(5) Perez had a fly ball rate of 27.7 percent in 2011-12 in the minors. During his big league action in 2011-12 he’s had a fly ball rate of 30.9 percent. That equates to a fly ball rate of roughly 30 percent. The big league average is about 36 percent. Therefore, if Perez is going to hit 20 homers with an inferior fly ball rate, he’s going to need to be money in the HR/F conversation ratio. He’s not. In his 115 game big league career that mark is only 11.5 percent (the big league average is usually right around 10 percent). That mark in the minors (2011-12) was 10.4 percent.

I’m sorry folks but Perez simply doesn’t profile as a .300 hitter with 20+ homer power in 2013. Could he hit .300? Sure. Could he hit 20 homers? I can’t say it’s not possible, but I highly doubt it. Would I bet any money that he would reach both marks in the coming campaign? Absolutely not. Don’t take this to mean that I wouldn’t want Perez as one of my two catchers in a mixed league. I’d have no problem at all calling his name out on draft day, but the chances of him ending up on any of my teams is small since there seems to be such a fervor over adding him in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ervin Santana

It’s easy to make fun of the Kansas City Royals. They never win, the national media never pays attention, and they rarely excite anyone. Therefore, when they recently added Ervin Santana, coming off his worst season, there likely wasn’t a scintilla of attention paid to the move other than to mock the Royals for taking on Santana at $12 million in 2013. Were the Royals foolish or sly like a fox in picking up the righty?

2012: 9-13, 5.16 ERA, 133 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 178 innings.

THE BAD

(1) After throwing 220+ innings in 2010-11 Santana dipped to 178 innings in 2012.

(2) His win total was a three year low (17 and 11).

(3) His ERA was abysmal and the second worst mark of his career (5.76 in 2007). He was more than two runs worse than he was in 2010-11 when he posted a 3.65 mark over 451.1 innings.

(4) After seasons of 169 and 178 Ks his total fell all the way down to 133.

(5) He allowed 39 homers, a career worst total (previous that mark was 27).

So the Royals are moronic in thinking this situation will reverse itself in 2013, or are they? Let’s start at the end.

Santana has long been homer prone allowing at least 23 homers each year from 2007-12, but he had never been above 27 before last seasons shellacking. Think of it like this. Per nine innings he allowed 1.09 and 1.02 homers in 2010-11, but somehow last season that number doubled to 1.97. On the surface that makes no sense, and when we talk about the actual number, 1.97 is insanely high. Given that his career mark is 1.24 it stands to reason that his homer total could dip by 10 or more in 2013. This should be aided by three things. (1) Common sense. (2) Regression to the mean. (3) Fly balls. One would think that given such a massive homer total that Ervin allowed a crap ton, a highly scientific term, of fly balls. Simply, he didn’t. Not only did he not allow a crap ton of fly balls, he actually allowed fewer fly balls than at any point in his career. He had a career best with a 37.3 fly ball rate, just one percent above the league average. So if he allowed fewer fly balls than ever before how did he allow all the homers? His HR/F ratio was obnoxiously high at 18.9 percent. If you combine his mark from 2010 (9.2) and 2011 (10.1) you end up at 19.3 percent, barely higher than his mark last season. He also owns a career mark of 10.1 percent, right on the big league average. The bottom line is that he simply didn’t “earn” all those home runs. Some were the result of bad pitches, but it would also seem like he left his rabbit’s foot at home when he pitched.

Beyond the homer situation that simply must turn around, there are a few indicators that show that Ervin pitched as well as he usually does in 2012 despite the results.

THE GOOD?

(1) His line drive rate of 19.5 percent was one tenth above his career mark. I already mentioned his career low fly ball rate which led to a 1.16 GB/FB ratio, again the best of his career.

(2) His 6.72 K/9 mark was a six year low, but his mark was in the 6.80′s in 2009 and 2010 and his career mark is 7.12 so we’re not talking about a major drop off.

(3) His 3.08 BB/9 mark was a five year high but given that his carer mark is 2.90 it’s well within the realm of the expected.

(4) His 1.27 WHIP was below his career 1.30 mark.

(5) His BABIP was actually a career best at .241 (career .284). If guys hadn’t taken him deep as often, the results of his season would have likely been very different.

(6) Finally, two advanced measures for ERA. His xFIP was 4.48 just above his career 4.32 mark. His SIERA was 4.35 just above his career 4.20 mark (SIERA is the newest iteration of xFIP).

So is Ervin Santana worth $12 million? Even in this crazy environment the answer is obviously no. Did the Royals obviously blunder in adding him to their organization? The answer is again no. Just the cursory look I ran through above should point out that Santana is nowhere near as bad a pitcher as it appears he was last year. In fact, many of the lead indicators to judge a pitcher’s performance were the same as they always were with Santana. What this means, at least to this scribe, is that Santana will be a solid option in the reserve rounds of drafts next season. You can’t just ignore what happened, after all he was horrible in 2012, but there is enough left in this skill set to suggest that spending a late round selection on Santana in mixed league drafts in 2013 might just net you a tidy return.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Alcides Escobar

After a couple of middling years as a middle infield option in league specific setups, Alcides Escobar went from a relative afterthought to someone who can legitimately be looked at as a potential top-12 option at shortstop in mixed leagues in 2013, or can he? Is that too much praise or could he possibly live up to that hype next season? Before breaking down the effort of Alcides and what that means for the future, let me regale you with what he accomplished in 2012.

Escobar was second at the shortstop position in batting average at .293 (min. 502 plate appearances). Second best folks. Only Derek Jeter was better at .316. Escobar hit .299 against righties and .277 against lefties so he doesn’t need a platoon partner.

Escobar stole 35 bases, the third highest mark at the position and an AL leading mark for shortstops. He was only caught five times.

When you can steal 35 bases and hit nearly .300, and you play shortstop, people take notice. It’s not like the rest of his game was very exciting, he had a mere five homers, had 52 RBIs and 68 runs scored, but that’s still a solid enough of a fantasy line to deserve being looked at closely when trying to add a little bit of speed to your lineup.

Now the concerns…

Though he hit nearly .300, and has the speed to push that mark again, there are a lot of negatives. First, his BABIP was .344 which is .041 points better than his career mark. He posted a 23 percent line drive rate, 2.4 percent above his career rate. Players with speed can post numbers like those two on a fairly regular basis, but Escobar will need to prove he can do that before it can just be accepted.

One thing in his favor is that he knows what his skills are – he beats the ball into the ground and runs (a 53 percent ground ball rate each of the past two years). Of course, the grounders preclude Escobar from doing anything to help in the homer category (he’s hit all of 14 home runs in 505 career games). He will not develop into a power hitter. He will also never likely be a big run producer either… his SLG is .356 for his career and his .390 mark in 2012 was a career best (minus his four at-bat 2008 cup of coffee). By the way, that’s awful (it also doesn’t help that he spent more than half the season hitting out of the #2 hole). Since we are talking about awful, how about that .307 career batting… I mean OBP. That’s right. The guy barely gets on base at a .300 clip for his career, some .020 points lower than a traditional league average type. Escobar did push that number up to .331 in 2012, but again, that’s barely league average. Will that lack of an ability to get on base preclude Escobar from pushing 40 steals in 2013? I’m afraid I’m going to have to say yes. In fact, a sub .330 OBP might even make it tough for him to repeat his 35 steal total from 2012.

So is Escobar a top-12 option at shortstop for 2013? It’s a little to early for a definitive answer, I certainly haven’t crunched all the numbers, but my initial response would be – no. I’m still not convinced that Escobar is a .293 hitter. I’m also not certain that he will be able to repeat his 35 steal total given his relative inability to get on base. That lack of times on base might also limit his ability to score runs. After all, he’s yet to record 70 in a season despite three years of at least 145 games played. Escobar profiles as a solid middle infield option in mixed leagues because of the wheels, but anything beyond that is pushing it.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Eric Hosmer

Eric Hosmer was one of the most disappointing players in fantasy baseball in 2012. A top-10 first base option according to pretty much everyone in March, he was a miserable failure given his draft day cost. However, as I noted in my First Base Positional Review, is it possible that Hosmer really wasn’t as bad as you thought and still worth targeting in 2013?

Here’s what most people see and it causes them to quiver in fear with Hosmer.

2011: .293/.334/.465
2012: .232/.304/.359

Admittedly, if that was all the data we had to review how could anyone have anything positive to say about Hosmer? So let’s dig into that slash line and and see if we can draw out anything positive.

Hosmer’s average fell .061 points. Does a look at the usual suspects explain why that happened?

He must have struck out more, right? Well he did, but his K-rate only went up a percentage point to 15.9, so that certainly doesn’t remotely address the average dip. Moreover, his walk rate increased from 6.0 percent to 9.4 percent, and that obviously doesn’t address the fall.

Hosmer’s ability to hit line drives remained unchanged. His line drive rate was 18.5 percent after an 18.7 percent rookie mark.

Generally speaking, ground balls turn into hits more frequently than fly balls. Given that, a four percent increase in Hosmer’s GB-rate also doesn’t explain why his batting average fell.

What about his BABIP you ask? An astute question my padawan learner (can you believe Disney bought LucasFilm?). After a solid .314 mark as a rookie, that number caved to .255 in year two for Hosmer. Given the line drive and ground ball information I noted, there is little that can explain the drastic BABIP drop. Some might say the exaggerated shift that team’s put on Hosmer had an effect, and they are correct it did have an effect, but it certainly doesn’t explain the substantial fall, at least not in total. So what I’m saying here is that there is every reason to believe the batting average will rebound in 2013.

Lost among the struggles is the fact that he improved his steal total to 16, the most among AL first baseman, and that was with his OBP falling .030 points (remember that). Hosmer also scored only one fewer run, despite the OBP dip, which would lead you to think some improvement there is almost a lock in the coming season. While his homer dip looks substantial, from 14 to 19, he still had a HR/F rate of nearly the same as his rookie season at 11.3 (versus 13.5). The real issue in terms of the power production is that Hosmer beat way too many balls into the ground leading to a far too high 1.92 GB/FB. He’s simply not going to be a 20 home run hitter with a 28 percent fly ball rate, so he will need to lift the ball more to reach his expected power heights.

Here’s what I know with Hosmer.

He’s going to cost a lot less this season than he did last year, and that represents a strong buy low opportunity.

Second, he is likely to run as much as any first sacker, and 15-20 steals from that position is massive.

Third, his batting average has to improve, just has to. He may not get it back into the .290′s, but if he doesn’t hit at least .275 I would be surprised.

Fourth, I’m concerned about his ability to sock 25 homer next season, but if his other numbers rebound, and he pushes 15-20 steals, his less than ideal power won’t hold him back that much in terms of his overall fantasy value.

In re-draft mixed leagues, Hosmer is a strong option as a corner infielder. In keeper leagues, now is the time you want to strike on the uber-talented player who simply put just had a bad season. The talent is still elite and the production is almost certain to improve starting in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

The Day After

I’ve been doing a lot of player profiles recently, so I thought it would be nice to change things up today and return to my helter skelter ways of days past. So strap in as we fly around the majors.

Bruce Chen and the Royals have some kind of love affair. Chen was rewarded for solid work with the Royals the last few years when he was given a 2-year deal for $9 million (there are also performance based incentives that could total a million dollars for the lefty). Chen has gone 24-15 for the Royals the past two years, an impressive record given that club’s issues, but his 3.96 ERA and 1.34 WHIP the past two years just aren’t that exciting. Toss in a poor 5.94 K/9 ratio, and another poor mark in the K/BB column (1.82), and I’m not remotely as excited about Chen as the Royals appear to be.

Freddy Garcia will make $4 million on his one year deal with the Yankees (there’s like another million in incentives in there as well). It’s a solid deal for both sides but just not something that should get you excited (Garcia is the right-handed version of Chen actually). Garcia won 12 games with a 3.62 ERA in 2011, and he could repeat those numbers in 2012, but his K/9 has been under 6.00 each of the past three years and there is just nothing, not a single thing, that points to any upside.

The Giants are going to lose two outfielders who played key roles in the teams’ World Championship run a couple of years ago (neither player was offered arbitration). Pat Burrell is likely going to have to retire because of ongoing foot woes. If he is done he’ll retire with a career OBP of .361, 292 homers and 976 RBIs. That’s a solid career to be sure, but for a guy who was drafted first overall in 1998, perhaps his career was slightly disappointing? Cody Ross was injured in 2011 and limited to 405 at-bats, and his productivity when on the field was less than inspiring as he hit 14 homers with 52 RBI, 54 runs scored and a mere .730 OPS. Someone might give him a chance to start, but he’s best served as a strong fourth outfielder.

According to reports, David Ortiz could get up to $16 million if he goes to arbitration with the Red Sox. He wants at least a two year deal so he’s unlikely to accept arbitration, but $16 million for one year? I know Ortiz had a great year hitting .309 with 29 homers, 96 RBI and an OPS of .952, but he’s 36 years old and lost his glove years ago. I wouldn’t pay him that much.

Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes will get theirs, but it’s not surprising that the market for both is slowly developing since both want huge money deals. Bank on this though. All those rumors about the Marlins signing all the big ticket free agents, such as these two, is sheer poppycock. I think it’s all a shell game to make the fans think they’re trying harder than they really are down in Florida.

Carlos Pena was offered arbitration by the Cubs but he really wants to sign a multi-year deal. Pena owns a career .239 batting average, and the last three years he hasn’t hit even .228 a single time. He does keep pounding the ball though. The last five years Pena has hit at least 28 homers with 80 RBI each season. Can’t argue with that though his pathetic average will cause that check to be smaller than he had hoped for.

Dan Wheeler was offered arbitration from the Red Sox. Wheeler posted a 4.38 ERA, but as usual, his performance was pretty darn solid. Wheeler walked only eight batters all year leading to a 1.46 BB/9 mark that led to a superb 4.88 K/BB ratio, the second time in two years that he’s posted a mark over 4.75. He’s nowhere near elite, but he’s one valuable bullpen arm.

By Ray Flowers

Giants, Royals Deal

The Giants added a bat, something everyone knows that they need, while dealing away a problem child who might have had the best arm on the team. The Giants also managed to do something that I always tell people not to do in the fantasy game. What boner did they pull? The sold low and bought high. Maybe they should spend some more time reading my stuff.

The Deal:
Giants Receive: Melky Cabrera
Royal Receive: Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo

Cabrera had the best season of a rather undistinguished career in 2011 as he hit .305 with 18 homers, 20 steals, 87 RBI and 102 runs scored. He also racked up 201 hits to impress everyone. However, this is what I see. Cabrera had success because of the copious plate appearance total. I mean, he had 706 of them (the 11th most in baseball). As a result, he was able to post career bests in RBI, runs, hits, doubles (44), homers etc. In terms of his ratios, his BB-rate of 5.0 percent was a career worst. His K-rate of 13.3 percent was a career worst. His .339 OBP was only .008 better than his career rate. His 1.44 GB/FB ratio was just off his career mark of 1.52. His line drive rate of 20.3 percent was only slightly above his 19.4 percent career mark. He also posted a career-high of .332 in the BABIP category, .033 points better than his career average and the first time he had a mark in the .300′s since 2006. It was a strong year in terms of his fantasy value, but in terms of his real world performance his success was largely a factor of those 706 PAs and not because of growth in his game.

Sanchez was a strong performer in 2010 when he went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 205 Ks in 193.1 innings. Last season he regressed. Not only was he limited to just 101.1 innings with issues with his elbow, he also saw his K/9 mark go down half a batter (it was still an impressive 9.06), while his terrible BB/9 rate (4.47 in 2010) shot up well past pathetic into the realm of atrocious (5.86). So instead of trading him coming off his best season, the Giants held on and ended up having top deal him at his lowest point in four years. Great move guys. Sanchez still owns dominating stuff, but until he does a better job of throwing strikes it just won’t matter. If he were able to get his walk rate under control, and to this point the best BB/9 mark he’s ever had is 4.27 in 2008 – a full batter above the big league average mind you – Sanchez would be one of the better left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, he’s shown little consistency in his career and the results are a mediocre WHIP (1.39) and ERA (4.26). At this point he’s mostly potential and little substance.

Verdugo is a left-handed starter much in the same mold as Sanchez. He throws hard, his K/9 mark is in the double digits during his minor league career (11.1), but he’s also walking far too many batters leading to 4.5 BB/9 mark. When he’s locked in few can hit him, but far too often he ends up beating himself. He’s not a lock to contribute with the Royals this season either as he has thrown just 130.1 innings at the Double-A level.

If everything comes together for Sanchez the Giants will rue the day they made this deal. It will also end up looking bad if they (a) fail to sign Cabrera to a long term deal (he’s a free agent after the 2012 season), or (b) if Cabrera returns to being the hitter he was for his entire career prior to 2011. As stated, much of what Cabrera accomplished in 2011 was the result, NOT of improvements in his game, but because of all those extra plate appearances an a rather fortuitous BABIP mark. The data seem to favor a regression in the batting average (career .275), in the homer category (he’d never hit more than 17 homers in back-to-back seasons before hitting 18 in 2011), and in the steals department for Melky (he’d never stolen more than 13 bags in a season, and with 10 caught stealing last year in 30 attempts he really didn’t add anything to the offense). The Giants needed a bat and Cabrera fills that need, but let’s hope the Giants realize that they would be lucky to get a repeat effort out of Cabrera in 2012 so they still have a lot of work to do to bolster an offense that was the club’s undoing in 2011.

Final Notes

The Giants’ outfield might be Cabrera in center, Nate Schierholtz in right and ??? They could be interested in bringing back Carlos Beltran and/or Andres Torres/Cody Ross, but for now the look of the outfield is one of a second division club. If it’s Aubrey Huff in left and Brandon Belt at first base, would that make you feel any better? Me neither.

Lorenzo Cain will likely open the 2012 season as the Royals starting center fielder. After hitting .312 with 16 homers, 81 RBI, 84 runs and 16 steals at Triple-A in 2011, he’s someone to remember in the later rounds of mixed league drafts – he’s got the skills to offer a substantial season in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Diamond Musings

You got a chance to see my beautiful mug earlier today in Around the Horn – Slow Starts . Now you’ll get a chance to also be bored by my written word.

Alex Gordon has looked great so far justifying the Royals decision to bat him third in the lineup (I still think it’s a bad idea, but for now it’s clearly working). Through that massive sample size of 24 at-bats, Gordon is hitting .375 with a 1.067 OPS as he has scored six times and knocked in three runs through five games. Have the Royals actually, inconceivably, done something right? They have have here, but…

Luke Hochevar was the #1 pick in the country in 2006, and since then he has been a monumental bust. Completely miscast as the Royals’ opening day starter, Hochevar owns a career ERA of 5.61 and a 1.46 WHP over 399.1 innings. He also owns a poor 5.97 K/9 mark and an equally unimpressive 1.95 K/BB ratio. I know the Royals took Hochevar first overall in 2006 because of cost and signability concerns about others in the draft, but look at some of the other first round arms that were taken that year: Brandon Morrow (5th overall), Clayton Kershaw (7th), Tim Lincecum (10th) and Max Scherzer (11th). Now you know why the Royals stink year after year. Let’s give them at least some credit. It’s not like the Rockies (#2 – Greg Reynolds) or Tigers (#6 – Andrew Miller) used their picks wisely either (in retrospect of course).

I got an awful lot of flack from people about having Howie Kendrick ranked so highly this year in the Baseball Guys’ Top-300. It’s only been five games of course, but early returns are very positive as he is hitting .429 with three bombs and six runs scored. He continues to fatten up against the Rays who he has absolutely demolished in his career to the tune of .443/.483/.722 slash line over 97 at-bats. He’s also knocked in 15 while scoring 20 times in those 26 games. Yowzah.

Help me out here Angels. You head into the year with Fernando Rodney as your closer. Everyone tells you it’s a bad idea, I think even the Rally Monkey could have told you that, but you pushed on anyway going with the veteran who saved 37 games in 2009 for the Tigers. So what happens? Rodney goes out and makes two appearances and loses the job? He did walk for guys in 1.1 innings, but honestly Angels, what did you expect? I simply can’t fathom why a team would bail on a player after two games. I’m sitting here castigating people for wanting to abandon ship in the fantasy game, telling them to remain patient, and you go and do this? Fantasy gamers who drop players after a week are stupid. A major league team that demotes a player after a week is monumentally misguided, and that’s being overly kind. So what happens when Peter Bourjos goes 1-for-13, will he lose his job? If Scott Downs returns from the DL and allows runs in three straight outings will he be released? I don’t see how this move helps anyone on the team – all it does is instill fear in the players that they’ll lose their job at the first sign of adversity. Jordan Walden takes over in the 9th inning by the way, and with his dominating stuff he is a must add in all leagues if he’s still sitting on the waiver-wire.

By Ray Flowers

Stocking Stuffers

My family loves the holidays, and Christmas Eve holds a special place in our hearts. It is the one day of the year that everyone comes together. At last count, that means 29 of us will be at my parents home on Friday to celebrate family, friendship and the holiday. I hope that all of you out there have a place that you will be this weekend, surrounded by friends and loved ones even if you don’t celebrate the holiday.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

Does Johnny Damon have anything left?
Word on the street is that the Yankees don’t hate the idea of bring Johnny Damon back to New York. While all fans of the Yankees should be worried about the sad state of their starting lineup, it doesn’t hurt for them to be looking into potentially cheap options to help to bolster their offense. However, would Damon accept a job that basically entailed being a 4th OF option, DH type? With Jorge Posada slated for the starting role at DH, and an outfield of Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher (I’m jealous he married the beautiful Joanna Garcia) and Brett Gardner, there just wouldn’t seem to be any shot at substantial at-bats for another bat with the Yanks. Damon is 429 hits from 3,000. If he were to take a part-time role he would have almost no shot of reaching that historic mark. The question is – does he deserve a full-time role and a shot at history?

Damon hit .271 last season .016 points below his lifetime mark. Was that dip a fluke? I won’t go as far as to say that, but it also isn’t time to panic. He had a 1.19 BB/K mark in ’10, just slightly below his 1.27 career mark. His 18.8 percent line drive rate was slightly below his 20.0 percent career mark, but not hide the women and children bad. Neither of those two numbers says he is finished. Damon also sported an 11.3 BB-rate which tied his career best rate that was, incidentally, posted in ’09. His K-rate of 16.7 percent was poor, the second worst mark of his career, but still a manageable number. In total, Damon really didn’t lose as much last season as it appeared on the surface, especially if you lay part of the blame in his dip in homers on a tough home ballpark in Detroit.

I’m not saying he is going to hit .280 with 15 homers, 90 runs and 20 steals like he used to, but I think he can still get on base, score some runs, and do enough at the dish and on the base paths to help out someone in a full-time role.

Should anyone want Joe Blanton?
When the Phillies added Cliff Lee they broke the bank to set up the most magnificent foursome in the game (you can read about the group in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Any team would die to have a fifth starter as talented as Joe Blanton, but apparently the Phillies will need to move him so as to have some money available to address in-season needs in 2011. Blanton is due $8.5 million in each of the next two seasons which is a lot of money for Blanton, or is it? With guys like Ted Lilly and Jorge De La Rosa signing deals that will see them make more than $10 million a year, is Blanton really that bad an option at $8.5 million? The two lefites certainly have better power stuff, and therefore more fantasy upside, but in terms of real world value, it’s a lot closer between the three for the following reason – Blanton racks up innings year after year.

De La Rosa has one season in his career with more than 135-innings pitched.

Lilly has two seasons of 200-IP. He has also gone for 175-innings in each of the last five seasons.

Blanton has gone for 175 innings in each of the past six years, and five times he has thrown at least 194.

Clearly it’s not cartwheel time merely because of the innings totals, but Blanton is the right-handed Barry Zito at half the price, and I can think of a boatload of pitchers that offer less at a more substantial hit to the pocket book. If the Phillies are willing to eat a bit of the money Blanton is due, look for plenty of teams to be interested.

Bruce Chen – any interest?
One of the better free agent pitchers still on the market – who would have thought that would have been an accurate statement 12 months ago – Chen went 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP for the Royals. So why did the Royals decide not to retain their biggest winner from 2010? First off, it’s cause they are the Royals. Nuff said. Secondly, they are actually making a smart decision, shockingly, in choosing not to overpay for a guy who really isn’t a very good pitcher. Chen posted a 6.29 K/9 mark in 2010, the second worst total of his 12 year career. He walked 3.66 batters per nine innings – above his 3.53 career mark. The resulting 1.72 K/BB mark is well into the “danger zone” unless that pitcher is a ground ball wonder. Chen isn’t as he has allowed a GB/FB ratio below 0.75 in each of the last four seasons. Chen also posted a below big league average 8.1 percent HR/F rate which just so happens to be a career best and roughly 60 percent of his career mark of 13.3 percent.

Give the Royals credit for not doing anything crazy – like ceding to Chen’s desire for a multi-year deal.

And with that I’m out for the next two days. I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday Season. Give a loved one a hug and a kiss and celebrate the wonder that is this magical time of year.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 8, 2010

Lance Berkman – Early reports had him playing left field with Matt Holliday shifting to right field. Looks like that isn’t going to be happening. This is good news for Matt Holiday who has never played right field. It’s bad news for Berkman and the Cardinals’ pitching staff. Berkman has been a first basemen the past few years, hasn’t played in the outfield since 2007, and really hasn’t been a full-time outfielder since 2004. He better hit, a lot, because he’ll likely be a butcher in the field.

Jack Cust – Signed a 1-year deal for $2.5 million to join the Mariners. This is an example of a good and bad signing. First, the good. Cust joins a club that needs offense as the Mariners were last in the majors in runs, homers, OBP and OPS. It’s also a completely reasonable contract. The bad? They already have Milton Bradley set to DH and he is set to make $12 million dollars this year. How awful does that contract with Bradley look? About as awful as it did when it was signed – he was never going to be able to live up to that 3-year, $30 million deal that ends after this season.

DH Types – Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and Jim Thome are all in the market for an AL team looking for a designated hitter. All three still have value, and all three could legitimately hit 25 homers in 2011. At the same time all three are aging, and it’s pretty clear at this point that none of the three really belongs in the field at all. Teams in need of a bat would be advised to apply here though as these three old timers can still slug it (here are their OPS marks from 2010: Guerrero .841, Manny .870 and Thome at 1.039).

Matt Diaz – Signed a two year deal to join the Pirates (it is rumored to be for about $4.25 million). Diaz crushed lefties, always has, and his career splits are pretty pronounced.

vs. lefties: .335/.373/.533, one HR per 25.3 ABs
vs. nighties: .269/.327/.382, one HR per 54.9 ABs

Remember that if you plan on drafting him this season.

As a result of the deal, the Pirates are considering moving Ryan Doumit. They already have Chris Snyder to catch, and the original plan was for Doumit to play the outfield most of the time. Doumit is also scheduled to make $5.1 this year with club options for 2012 ($7.25 million) and 2013 ($8.25 million). It seems odd to me that the Pirates would want to get rid of a guy who could serve as their backup catcher and potential platoon mate with Diaz to form a nice combo in the outfield. I know the Pirates aren’t going to pay the guy over $15 million for 2012-13, but why not keep him for now?

Jeff Francoeur – Here is where major league teams could learn something from us “stat geeks” in the fantasy game. Simply put, Francoeur does not have an approach at the plate that will allow him to have long-term success at the dish, and all you have to do is to look at his career numbers. Apparently no one in Kansas City can operate a spreadsheet though, so the Royals went out and gave Francoeur a $2.5 million deal for 2011 with a $3 million mutual option for 2012. So let me get this straight. The Giants got Pat Burrell for one year and $1 million, and the Royals gave that amount of money to Frenchie? Burrell had a “down” 2010, but he still produced a .348 OBP and a .469 SLG. Francoeur has never posted an OBP of better than .338, and he has never posted a SLG of .450 in a season of more than 275 plate appearances. Simply put, Francoeur stinks. Of course, we are talking about the Royals who have brought in similar hitters the past few years in guys like Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs. It’s no wonder this team never wins.

Doing it Right: The White Sox

The White Sox singed Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $56 million deal to serve as their designated hitter. That move looked even better when they were able to secure the services of Paul Konerko on a three year, $37.5 million deal (Konerko helped out the club as well by taking $30.5 million the next three years with $1 million dollars a year from 2014-2020 in deferred payments). So for $26 million in 2011 the White Sox should get themselves about 80 homers, 200 RBI and 180 runs. Would you rather get that or 15 wins, 220 innings and Cliff Lee for the same price? Seems like an obvious call to me. Furthermore, think about this:

The White Sox, if you add up the contracts of Dunn and Konerko, gave two deals that amount to 7-years and $93.5 million. Would you rather have Dunn AND Konerko at that rate or Jayson Werth and his 7-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals? Uh, yeah. Great move Nationals.

By Ray Flowers