How Did I Do?

As human beings we all look for affirmation. Even those of us that don’t really care can’t help but think to ourselves at times ‘should I wear these pants?’ or ‘I wonder if he really likes me or not?’ It’s human nature. However, it’s gotten totally out of control in the fantasy game. Here is what I mean.

I get, an I’m not exaggerating, at least 100 emails/calls/comments/tweets a day that all start out the same way. “I had my draft last night and I was wondering if you could tell me how I did?” There are so many problems with this line of thought that I felt the need to let it all out (I’m about ready to be my cantankerous best, as they say on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio ‘Ray is about ready to turn heel,’ so you might want to have a belt of booze before you continue reading).

(1) Asking me how you did AFTER your draft is pointless. It’s too late. The time to worry about your team is BEFORE you draft. Once the die has been cast on your team there’s only so much you can do to change it. Inevitably I get this question about ‘how did I do?’ an I send a reply. What then happens is a series of emails, rarely is it just one mind you, in which a handful of potential moves are brought up. Not to be rude, but I just don’t have the time to answer 125 emails a day. The easiest way to avoid this situation is to pick up a copy of my Baseball Guys 2012 Draft Guide (you can also follow me on Twitter where I answer questions all day and night). There are over 600 players ranked in that Guide so you know just how I think players should be evaluated. This leads to…

(2) Why are you asking me if you should drop Rafael Furcal to pick up Yunel Escobar? Clearly you haven’t picked up a copy of the Baseball Guys Draft Guide where Escobar is ranked 12 spots ahead of Furcal. I’d say a good 50 percent of the questions I get from people after drafts would be answered if they just employed the strategies and rankings that can be found in the Guide. There’s a reason I spent all the time needed to craft the 55 page PDF document, and why I continue to update it on a daily basis. If you’re going to use me a source for fantasy sports knowledge, how about trusting my rankings of players?

(3) Why are you looking to trade players three hours after your draft was completed? We’ve all been in leagues with people who have a disease that pushes them to constantly monkey around with their lineups either through trades, waiver-wire additions or by mixing and matching their lineup on a daily basis. Games haven’t even started yet and you’re already going to start messing around with your lineup? Really? That seems pretty harsh to me. Remember – most of the time what we do in fantasy sports is reactionary. You bench Yunel Escobar only after you notice he has hit .188 for the past 10 games. The problem with that is that he’ll then go out and produce seven hits in his next three games. Noticing this “hot trend,” you then activate him yet again. However, he then goes 1-for-13. Given this example you’ve basically had Escobar in your lineup hitting .145. If you had never messed around with the lineup that average would have been .250. Exercise patience, especially when games haven’t even been played yet.

(4) For goodness sakes people, why are we turning fantasy baseball into fantasy football? One of the most beautiful aspects of fantasy baseball is that 5×5 scoring accounts for about 90 percent of leagues. Moving to more involved leagues, 6×6 or 7×7 or even larger is fine with me, but keep the format the same. By that I mean starting lineups should include:

14 hitters: C,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,MI,CI,OF,OF,OF,OF,OF,UT
9 pitcher: Any mix of starters and relievers

You can jimmy-jack around with the scoring categories if you’d like, but keep the starting lineup standard. Don’t do a league with only five pitchers, or one with one catcher, or one that starts only three outfielders. Just don’t.

By the way, auctions should be $260. Not $280, not $300, but $260.

(5) Speaking of roster sizes, let me address league sizes. I realize that 10-team leagues are “standard” for some of the biggest purveyors of fantasy sports, but I’m here to tell you that’s a total joke. I do leagues where there are 12 teams in an AL-only league and 13 teams for NL-only setups. If you’re doing a 10-team mixed league the player pool penetration is so shallow it’s nearly a waste of time. For goodness sakes, if you’re going to do a 10-team league you had better at least have 14 hitters and nine pitchers in your starting lineup. If you don’t, please don’t waste my time asking me to analyze your team. If your club starts 10 hitters and seven pitchers doesn’t look like an All-Star squad in a 10-team league you need to quit playing fantasy baseball.

(6) If you are going to send me a question to rank your team, realizing you are taking your life in your own hands after the above rambling posting, please at least tell me how many teams are in your league and how many players are in your starting lineup. If you start eight hitters or 14 kind of makes a big difference.

Now that I’ve got that off my chest, you can return to your normally scheduled program.

If you’re looking to do a fantasy league this year, why not give Fleaflicker a try?

By Ray Flowers

Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Photo by Steven Boyd

 

I’m continually asked a few questions over and over again.

What should my draft strategy be?
Which “sleepers” should I target late in drafts?
Which setup man will become a closer this season?
How can you give away such great information for free?
How is it possible that you’re still single?

I always have answers for those questions, at least the first four anyway, but there is a sixth question that I get all the time as well – which pitchers should I target on draft day after the top mound aces are off the board? That’s what I’m going to breakdown in this entry.

I’ve already touched on this topic previously, so I’ll quickly highlight those pieces before digging a bit deeper today.

The Strikeout: Relievers
This article breaks down the top relievers in 2010 based on K/9 marks.

The Strikeout: Starters
This article breaks down the top starters in 2010 based on K/9 marks while also delving a bit deeper by adding into the mix how a pitchers’ walk rate also needs to be looked at as well.

Here is an excerpt from that piece.

The following group of pitchers are those starters you should target, ones with a K/9 of 7.00 and a K/BB above 2.75 last season (min. 100 IP). There were only 26 such hurlers in 2010 (clink on the link to the piece to find out who they are).

How to Evaluate Relievers
This article gives some hints as to what type of skills you should look at when deciding which bullpen arms to roster.

Here is an excerpt from that piece.

Amongst relievers that tossed 60-innings last year, which pitchers racked up a K/9 mark over 7.50 with a BB/9 mark under 3.00? Clink on the link to the piece to find out who they are.

THE RULES

Here are the “rules” that I try follow when drafting pitchers.

STARTERS
Target at least a 6.50 K/9 mark.
Target a BB/9 mark below 3.30.

RELIEVERS
Target at least a 7.50 K/9 mark.
Target a BB/9 mark below 3.00.

There are certainly plenty of examples of pitchers who have success despite missing on one, or both, of those baselines, but if you’re asking me the optimal way to put together a pitching staff, then those are the marks I would be shooting for.

What does this mean in practical terms? It means that I would never reach for any of the following hurlers: Mark Buehrle, Rick Porcello, Carl Pavano, Doug Fister, Mike Pelfrey, Bronson Arroyo, Jeremy Guthrie, Dallas Braden, Fausto Carmona, R.A. Dickey, Trevor Cahill, Jon Garland, Derek Lowe or Randy Wells.

To be clear I’m not saying that there aren’t situations in which I would still call out these pitchers names – i.e. in a league specific scenario or very late in a mixed league draft – but there’s no chance I’m gonna target them to be one of my top four starters in a mixed league, and no, I don’t care how good they were last year.

At the other end of the spectrum here are some hurlers who I would look to call out at the end of a draft, even if they don’t seem to be as stable an option as the names I just listed. Remember, there will always be “average” guys on waivers in mixed leagues. I’m going to target high upside arms late, an if they flame out I’ll just grab one of those above guys to fill out my rotation.

Jorge de la Rosa: A dominating power hurler who has a a 8.95 K/9 mark since joining the Rockies in 2008, DLR’s issue is an inability to stay healthy and to locate his pitches at times. Given his K per inning rate the past three years, and the fact that he is a ground ball hurler, I’m willing to cut him a wee bit of slack even though his BB-rate is terrible at 4.12 per nine. Still, I’d rather take a shot on his ceiling than call out the name of a guy like Jon Garland.

Jhoulys Chacin: Like his Rockies’ teammate, Chacin dominated hitters with the K posting a 9.04 K/9 mark, but he also allowed far too many walks at 4.00 per nine. However, he also keeps the ball on the ground like DLR, and K’s plus grounders usually equals a lot of success – even in Colorado.

Bud Norris: This Astros’ hurler was 10th in baseball last year amongst pitchers who threw at least 100-innings with a 9.25 K/9 mark. He does come with a lot of risk though. First off, he often can’t throw strikes (4.51 walks per nine), and second he could always be moved back to the bullpen because he really doesn’t have very good secondary stuff. I’m still greatly intrigued by that power arm though.

Homer Bailey: A star prospect who was going to break through what, each of the last three years, it might finally be his time. Bailey posted a strong 8.26 K/9 mark last season with a 3.30 BB/9 rate, not to mention that he was able produce a 3.55 ERA an a 1.27 WHIP over his last 10 starts.

Jonathon Niese: I don’t think there will be many leagues this year where he will be taken before Pelfrey and Dickey, but I see no reason why that should be the case. Niese was really good last year until a final month meltdown when he wore out from his heavy workload (his ERA was 3.76 on Sept 18th before finishing at 4.20).

Chris Narveson: I’ve written about him before, but in case you missed it, did you realize that over his last 14 starts last year he had a 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 7.33 K/9 mark with a 2.67 BB/9 rate?

Travis Wood: Rookies who post a 7.54 K/9 rate and a 2.28 BB/9 mark should certainly grab your attention, especially when the back of their ball card says that they were a 2nd round draft pick hinting that it’s not unreasonable to expect there to be enough talent to sustain that level of production.

Let me repeat my oft-heard refrain: TARGET SKILLS AND NOT ROLES

In the long run you’ll end up ahead if you follow this mantra. You’ll just have to target the right skills and have the patience to allow things to develop.

By Ray Flowers