Fantasy Beat – Cleaning the Glass & Rounding the Bases

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray start off talking about some NBA players that could see some increased minutes because they are playing on teams that are out of it. They also talk some general Free Agents to pickup for your playoff stretch. It’s now time for Trevor to quit complaining about NBA because he gets to talk some fantasy baseball. The guys discuss some key draft strategies people need to pay attention to.

NBA: Gerald Henderson, Wesley Johnson, Isaiah Thomas, Tiago Splitter

MLB: Tiering, Positional Qualification, PEDs, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jeff Keppinger, Chase Headley, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Mike Trout

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Injuries & Accusations

The 2013 major league baseball season is about to begin, so now is a great time to touch on two topics that are in the news on a daily basis – injured players and those that might be guilty of PED use.

WORKING WITH THE INJURY BUG

Corey Hart. Curtis Granderson. Mark Teixeira. Chase Headley. Hanley Ramirez.

All those players have significant injury concerns that will cost them one, possibly two months of the season (maybe even more in the case of Tex). The general reaction is to run away from those players immediately and not even bother looking at them on draft day. Is that the right way to look at this situation? Let’s use the case of HanRam.

Hanley was injured while playing third base in the World Baseball Classic (another reason to get rid of the event?). He tore a ligament in his right thumb and will be out of action two months as he needs surgery. Gone are his chances at being a top-25 player this season as he will miss a third of the season. So we just forget about him, right? Not so fast. Follow me here.

HanRam will likely be able to play 2/3 of the season this year. Let’s assume last year’s numbers are his baseline. Ramirez hit .257 with 24 homers, 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 steals, numbers by the way that are his worst in a full season at any point in his career. He played 157 games last season. Let’s say he plays 105 games at that level this season. If he were to do that here would be his fantasy line: .257-16-62-53-14. Those numbers still wouldn’t be awful for a shortstop if you were in a 12 or 15 team league, and they would certainly be solid for a middle infield option. But remember this salient point – while Hanley is out of action you will have an open spot in your lineup to fill. Let’s say that you roster Alexei Ramirez who you plan on starting until Ramirez returns. Let’s say that Ramirez plays 50 games for you while Hanley is shelved. Per 162 games in his career Ramirez has gone .276-17-77-77-14. How does that pro-rate over 50 games? Take a look: five homers, 24 runs, 24 RBIs, four steals

Let’s put the two players together.

HanRam (105 games): .257-16-62-53-14
Alexei (50 games): .276-5-24-24-4
TOTAL: .263-21-86-77-18

* The batting average is the .257 average of HanRam from last season and the .276 career average of Alexei giving 105 games to Hanley and 50 to Ramirez which equates to 156 hits in 594 at-bats.

That’s darn near a 20-90-80-20 effort.

Make sure you don’t discount players too quickly just cause they are injured. You still might be able to get strong numbers from a position if you are smart about what you pay for the assets that will fill those spots.

ACCUSATIONS – SHOULD THEY CHANGE YOUR OPINION?

I don’t know who will break the law tonight.

I don’t know who broke the law in the past.

I don’t know who is cheating or has cheated.

Neither do you.

I bring this up cause I get the question every single day, multiple times, about when to take Ryan Braun. My response is always the same, even if it’s misguided – he’s the #1 guy on my board. ‘But Ray, didn’t you read Jeff Passan’s piece about how major league baseball is targeting Braun in what seems to be a very aggressive and over the top manner?’ Of course I read the article. I wouldn’t have linked to it otherwise, and it does disturb me that MLB appears to be on a witch hunt to get Braun. But for now I’m not going to draft based on fear. I KNOW there are players in the majors right now who are cheating. You know it too. The problem is we don’t know who those players are. Do you pass on drafting a guy who gained 12 lbs of muscle over the winter? Do you pass on a guy because some vague/unsubstantiated rumor suggests that there is a possibility that something may have happened in the past? You certainly can choose to do that. However, as I led off this section with, none of us knows what is going on behind closed doors.

Maybe a guy is doing recreational drugs.
Maybe he boozes too much.
Maybe he beats his wife.
Maybe he’s going through a painful divorce.
Maybe his child is sick.
Maybe his parent died.
Maybe he’s got an illness that he’s hiding.

On, and on, and on…

The point is, playing the “what if” game gets us nowhere. We all have to admit that every player, every single one of them, comes with risk. If you feel Braun is too much of a risk because of the PED cloud, then pass on him. Realize though that Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. Mike Trout can’t repeat what he did last year and has one season of big league experience. Robinson Cano is without Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. Matt Kemp & Joey Votto are coming off surgery… they all have issues folks.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Nelson Cruz

A forgotten player, that’s what we could call the Rangers’ Nelson Cruz. A power hitter that used to have speed, Cruz has lost his ability to steal bases due to continuing leg issues, and Josh Hamilton is no longer his running mate now that he has signed with the Angels. Because of those factors Cruz rarely is mentioned when talks get around power hitting outfielders (check out his current ADP is seeing him go off the board with the 117th selection overall). Why should you be interested in Cruz if he falls in your mixed league draft? If you’ve got five minutes I’ll be happy to explain to you why.

Cruz went 30/20 in 2009, his first big league season of more than 307 at-bats. The sky seemed to be the limit for the athletic, power hitting monster out of Texas. Alas, he’s never reached those homer or steals totals again. Here are his marks in each category since 2009.

2009: 33 homers, 20 steals
2010: 22 homers, 17 steals
2011: 29 homers, nine steals
2012: 24 homers, eight steals

Let’s deal with the steals first.

Cruz has solid speed, and obviously knows how to swipe a bad, but the problem is that he is always seemingly dealing with some injury to his bottom half. As a result, he’s just not running anymore. The last two years he has attempted 14 and 12 steals. Remember, he went for 37 steals in 2009-10. Those days aren’t likely to come back, so 10 should be the upside of expectations with Cruz.

If you haven’t caught Arrow on the CW, I would recommend it. Solid show that’s superhero in nature but more along the lines of Christopher Nolan than Tim Burton. The show features Katie Cassidy, the daughter of David Cassidy, you know The Partridge Family guy. Well done David… on both counts.

As for the power with Nelson, it’s all about at-bats. Oddly, Cruz had a career best 585 at-bats last year and he only went deep 24 times. The previous three years, while he was averaging 28 homers a season, his average at-bat total was 445. IF he can stay healthy 30 homers seem very doable for Cruz. In fact, per 550 at-bats in his career Cruz has averaged 29 homers a season. Why did his total drop last season relative to his at-bat total? The reason can be explained with two measures. (1) He posted his lowest fly ball rate in four years at 40.8 percent (his career mark is 43.3 percent). (2) His HR/F ratio was a five year low at 13.1 percent (career 15.9 percent). Moreover, in three of the previous four seasons his HR/F ratio was over 18.5 percent. If both numbers return to ‘normal,’ as they easily could in 2013 and he stays healthy, that 30 homer season is coming.

As for the run production, Cruz is one of four outfielders to have at least 76 RBIs each of the past four seasons even though he has averaged just 480 at-bats a season (the others are Ryan Braun, Nick Swisher and Torii Hunter). Last season, with his health (159 games), he drove in a career bets 90 runners.

The batting average pretty much it what it is with Cruz. A .268 career hitter, you need to put out of your head that .318 mark in 2010 (399 at-bats) and that .330 average in 2008 (115 at-bats). In three of the last four seasons he has hit .260, .263 and .260. His career BB/K rate is 0.36. His career BABIP is .303. His career line drive rate is 16.9 percent. Nothing there suggests that he’s anything other than the batting average producer that he has appeared to be for the majority of his career.

Cruz doesn’t have Josh Hamilton to ride shotgun to this season, and that’s a concern. However, some people may take that thought too far leaving Cruz as a potentially solid add on draft day. The Rangers still have strong hitters in Ian Kinsler and Adrian Beltre, and guys like Mitch Moreland, David Murphy, A.J. Pierzynski and Lance Berkman can all hit too. It may not be the prettiest group the Rangers have ever put together, but the offense should still be plentiful in Texas. Don’t reach on Cruz, you won’t have to given his ADP, but if you need some power in the outfield and the pickings are starting to get a wee bit thin, don’t forget that if Cruz can repeat last seasons games played total that a run at 30 homers and 100 RBIs isn’t at all out of the question.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2013 Livin’ The Fantasy Draft

And the fantasy baseball drafts just keep on coming… Kay Adams and I hosted the Livin’ the Fantasy Draft for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM87). The league consisted of myself, Kay, Kyle Elfrink, two producers (Drew Phelps and Phil Backert), and six listeners (one was unable to make it). That means we had a shallow 11 team, mixed league draft that we took part in. I had the #2 selection in the draft, and here is how my team turned out.

C: Carlos Santana (7th round), Victor Martinez (8)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (19), Kendrys Morales (24)
2B: Rickie Weeks (9), Martin Prado (6)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (4), Manny Machado (21)
SS: Jose Reyes (2)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Dexter Fowler (13), Cameron Maybin (23), Drew Stubbs (25), Michael Brantley (28)

STARTING PITCHERS: Yovani Gallardo (10), Mat Latos (11), Brandon Morrow (12), C.J. Wilson (15), Dan Haren (16), Tim Hudson (22), Edinson Volquez (26)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Joe Nathan (14), Joel Hanrahan (17), Kenley Jansen (18), Steve Cishek (20), Vinnie Pestano (27)

It’s a two catcher league, and with the two talents I saw sitting there in the 7th and 8th rounds I thought to myself what the heck, do something you normally don’t due and roster two potentially elite options at catcher.

First base is an area of weakness relative to the rest of my team. Still, I’m confident that my duo of Youkilis and Morales will be able to hold their own at the spot, even if I’m just treading water there.

Weeks fell in my eyes, so I was more than willing to dive into the pool in the 9th round. Injuries are always an issue, but per 162 games for his career here is Weeks line – .251-23-67-107-20. Yeah, I know right? Prado qualifies at OF, 3B, 2B and SS in this league. I know he shouldn’t, but you have to play to your leagues rules. He offers excellent cover up the middle, at the corner, and in the outfield. I love him as my middle infielder right now. Speaking of up the middle, Reyes is a strong contender to lead shortstops in fantasy value in 2013.

Zimmerman’s shoulder keeps passing all the tests this spring, and he seems well on his way to another traditionally impressive effort at the hot corner. Machado in the 21st was a shocking fall actually. Kyle Elfrink, my co-host on The Drive (5 PM EDT, Monday-Friday) pointed out something very interesting. Rookies like Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar are on everyone’s must draft list. A youngster like Machado, who is just as talented, simply isn’t because he played last year and only did so-so. The perception is that Myers/Profar are worth the risk this season but Machado is only blah. Folks, Machado is a dynamic talent who has a starting job with the Orioles. That should mean more than it does to some.

Braun is still my #1 guy, PED junk be damned. Upton is a great #2 outfielder. Choo is a great #3 outfielder. Fowler is a great #4 outfielder. Maybin/Stubbs/Brantley equals a great #5 outfielder.

On the hill I waited on starters, shocking I know, and yet again proved you can do well following that strategy. Gallardo and Latos are top-20 arms in my eyes, and Morrow is right on the edge of that as well. My 4th starter is Wilson, and I have a lot of faith in him rebounding this season (see his Player Profile). My fifth is Haren, and I have a lot of faith that he will rebound this season (see his Player Profile). My sixth starter is Tim Hudson, you know the guy who has averaged 16 victories with a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP the past three seasons. My seventh starting arm is Volquez who has a 200 K season in his back pocket, has filthy stuff, and pitches half his games in Petco Park.

In the pen, some strong arms as well. Nathan and Hanrahan are top-10 closer types, and Cishek is a strong 3rd closer. I also added Jansen, that guys arm is as good as any in baseball, and Pestano who is one hell of a hurler himself (he’s also potentially going to get some 9th inning work if Chris Perez isn’t 100 percent by opening day).

It’s an 11 team league, having one less team in the mix certainly opens up the player pool for sure, and who knows about injuries, but looking at this squad I really don’t think I have an obvious weakness.

Oh, and here are the results of an NL-only draft that we held on The Drive which you can hear Monday through Friday at 5 PM EDT on Sirius 210. XM87.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Willingham

Last season only two outfielders in major league baseball had more RBIs than Josh Willingham while only four outfielders hit more homers than Willingham. In retrospect it was a bad decision to view Willingham as nothing more a mid round draft pick in fantasy baseball on draft day in 2012 (many expected the move to Minnesota to erode his value somewhat). Should that view be changed, that Willingham is nothing more than a solid option for 2013, or should he be an early round draft pick because of the power that led to 35 homers and 110 RBIs last season?

By the way, Josh Hamilton (128) and Ryan Braun (112) had more RBIs. Hamilton (43), Curtis Granderson (43), Braun (41) and Ginacarlo Stanton (37) had more homers. As I also pointed out the other day in Things You Should Know, his production last season leaves a very favorable impression when his numbers are compared to those of Giancarlo Stanton.

Here is what I know.

Willingham set a career-high in homers in ’12. He had never hit 30 homers in a season before with his previous best being 29 in 2011.

Second, Willingham set a career-high with 110 RBIs. He had never reached 100 RBIs before (98 in 2011).

Third, Willingham set a career-high with 85 runs scored. His previous best was 75 back in 2007.

Part of the reason for all those counting category high’s is that he set a career best with 145 games played in his seventh season (his 615 plate appearances were also a career best). It should be noted though that this fella has failed to reach 525 at-bats in any season as a big league player (just pointing that out). Willingham has long been an injury risk and just cause he was out there a lot in 2013 shouldn’t cause you to forget that since he became a full-time player he has averaged 131 games a season meaning that over the past seven years he’s averaged a full month of missed games. That’s something you need to keep in mind when evaluating Willingham.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

As for the power, the guy does have 64 bombs the past two years, so it’s pretty hard to write his pop off as something anomalous. It’s also pretty impressive that he hit 29 homers in 2011 in Oakland and 35 in Minnesota in 2012 despite Park Factors in the home run column of 26th and 14th. Neither park is a homer haven by any means. The fact is that Josh has posted HR/F marks of 17.5 and 21.2 percent the past two years, both big numbers (career 15.5). I won’t say it’s a pace he can’t sustain though as he has proven that he can have that level of success. He also hits a lot of fly balls, over 48 percent in two of the last three seasons, so his homer total pretty much rests upon how many games played he can drag his body out onto the field.

IF Willingham can remain healthy, he still has three major issues in the fantasy game.

(1) He isn’t a very good all-around hitter. A career .261 hitter, Josh has hit better than .268 only once in seven years (.277 in 2006). He’s consistently league average. That’s all he is.

(2) He never steals a base. For his career he’s swiped 32 bases, and in four of the past five years he’s been limited to four or fewer thefts.

(3) He plays in the outfield, a position that has a lot of strong hitters, so his offensive exploits aren’t over the top good, especially with no base stealing speed and an inability to do anything other than match the league average in batting average. He’s just not an exciting player, especially when you toss into the mix his injury filled history.

I’m not saying Willingham is useless, he’s far from that. You can’t be useless if you are 11th in baseball with 64 homers the past two years and 8th in RBIs (208) – eighth (who knew?). But consider that he is tied for 55th in runs (154), is 92nd in batting average (.253) and 133rd in steals (15 tied with seven others). Toss in the fact that’s he’s failed to play 140 games in four of the past five years and that he plays outfield, and there just isn’t the pull for his services that you might think there should be. Willingham is a solid add for a club, but don’t go reaching or you will end up being disappointed (there is a chance others will view him the same way and he will fall on draft day in which case he would become a solid target – it’s all about the cost with this slugger).

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Drew Stubbs

Drew Stubbs was dealt from the Reds to the Indians this offseason in a deal highlighted by Shin-Soo Choo heading to Cincinnati (Trade Breakdown: D’Backs, Indians, Reds). In case you missed it, here is a Stubbs fact from that piece that many may not be aware of: over the past three seasons that Stubbs has averaged 17 homers, 86 runs scored and 33 steals. So let me ask you, how many guys do you think went 17-86-33 in 2012? Let me save you the trouble of looking it up. There weren’t’ ten guys, nor seven, nor four, nor three. The answer is one. Only one man in baseball hit 17 homers with 86 runs scored and 33 steals, numbers that Drew Stubbs has averaged the past three years. The answer is Mike Trout (Stubbs fell short with 14 homers, 75 runs and 30 steals). Should you be paying more attention to Stubbs on draft day than his current ADP in the 250 range suggests?

Stubbs is coming off his worst full season as a big leaguer. Still, he hit the same amount of homers as Alex Gordon, scored the same amount of runs as Giancarlo Stanton and stole the same amount of bases as Ryan Braun. And that was Stubbs worst effort in three years.

Stubbs isn’t a big power hitter, but he hit 22 in 2010 and clearly has show himself to be a 15-20 type of threat. The move from Cincy to Cleveland isn’t likely to help – according to Park Indices the past three years right handed batters in Cleveland have a 72 mark in the homer category (28 percent below league average) while in Cincinnati that mark is 143 (the best in the NL) – so it would be best to set exceptions at the 15 or so level this year.

Are you old enough to remember the Rubik’s Cube?

As for the steals, Stubbs has stolen at least 30 bags in each of his three full seasons (he’s one of only six players over 30 each of the last three years: Michael Bourn, Coco Crisp, Rajai Davis, Jose Reyes and B.J. Upton are the others). He’s a tremendous athlete with speed to burn, so there’s little reason to think he won’t extend his streak to four years, especially since his career success rate is over 80 percent.

The runs scored, now there is an area that he should be productive in yet again, though there is something we need to talk about despite Stubbs’ solid totals in that category (91, 92 and 75 runs the past three years), and it also happens to lead right into the biggest concern with Stubbs.

Stubbs owns a career .241 batting average and .312 OBP. Those are terrible numbers that fall well below the league average during his career as a big leaguer (.261 and .329). Given those marks his ability to steal bases and to score runs is in question. Miscast as a top of the order hitter for long stretches with the Reds, he’s hit leadoff or second in the order in 286 of 486 career games, he’s likely best suited to be a #6 hitter. If he does indeed hit lower in the order in Cleveland remember that each successive spot in the batting order that a player drops he loses 15-20 plate appearances over the course of a season. If Stubbs hits 6th all year, for example, that’s likely to lead to roughly 90 or so fewer plate appearances than if he were to bat leadoff. Fewer plate appearances mean less times to run, and likely fewer chances to cross home plate.

Now to the hulking pink elephant in the room. Stubbs’ batting average.

Who wouldn’t want an outfielder with 17 homers, 86 runs scored and 33 steals on their team? Would you still want that guy if he was a career .241 hitter?

Stubbs is never going to produce in the batting average category. Never. However, it’s not at all a stretch to think that his .213 mark from last season will be a lower water mark for his career. Just look at two simple factors to explain what happened. (1) After 3-years with a BABIP mark of at least .325 the mark fell to .290 in 2012. (2) The owner of a nearly a 19 percent line drive rate heading into last season Stubbs saw that number fall to 14.9 percent. If his BABIP and line drive rates go back up, as they should, his batting average should rebound. Now by “rebound” I’m still talking about a mark that may not reach the league average which was .255 last season. The reason is obvious – Stubbs strikes out more frequently than I do at a bar on Friday night. For his career Stubbs averages a strikeout every 3.05 at-bats. That means he’s pretty much going to average more than a strikeout a game. Last season he struck out 166 times, a three year low, but he also had fewer plate appearances than the previous two years. The truth of the matter is that his 30.5 percent K rate was a career worst (career 29.3 percent). Stubbs will never stop striking out. His average will never be impressive. He has to hope that his manager understands that and doesn’t bench him for it.

Stubbs is an elite athlete who is one year removed from 40 steals and 92 runs scored. There are certain holes in his game, there’s no way to whisk that away, but there is still value to be had here because so many have been scared off his trail. If you draft Stubbs in a mixed league you will have to augment his addition with a couple of big batting average bats, but as a fifth outfielder Stubbs profiles as a player who might just return a tidy profit this season.
 

By Ray Flowers

The Sad State of Baseball

I hate this entire performance enhancing drugs mess in baseball. This story just won’t die. It seems like on an almost daily basis there is some new revelation about a player, or group of players, who alleged cheated. I’ve resisted writing about the topic for the most part, I feel almost like it’s beneath me to get down into the gutter with all of this mess, but alas, the story just won’t go away. So something I never do here at BaseballGuys.com – I’m actually going to write an editorial with little relevance, at least directly, to the world of fantasy sports.

Some bullet point thoughts on the whole disaster.

1 – If any player cheated shame on them. They’ve brought shame on themselves, their families, their teams and the fans that support them. If a player cheated, and it can be proven, they should be punished. Period.

2 – The key phrase of the previous statement is “proven.” In this society we rush to judgment so quickly. We want the news immediately. We get annoyed if we have to wait in line for three minutes to get out coffee or if a web page takes nine seconds to load. Instant gratification is the key term for today. That being said, we also seem want to accept every story as truth. Take the recent PED accusations coming out of Florida. It seems that we have grown so weary of the entire PED mess, especially on the heels of the recent admission by Lance Armstrong that he did indeed take banned substances after years of violently defending himself against such accusations, that we’re willing to exceptany story at face value. I’m not saying the recent reports from Florida aren’t accurate. I’ve got no way of knowing whether they are or aren’t. But I will tell you that we’ve all been fooled before. Ever heard of the Piltdown Man? How about the singing group Milli Vanilli? And I don’t even know what to say about the whole Manti Te’o situation. The point is that there are plenty of times when the public has accepted a story without knowing the truth. Let’s be careful not to do that again here. Let’s give the process time to unravel the mystery and get to the truth of the matter.

3 – What is the evidence against the players recently implicated? A series of documents from a clinic in Florida. I’m not saying they are fraudulent or fabricated, but has anyone ever written down something that wasn’t true? We’ve all done that. Isn’t Wall Street filled with people who make claims that simply aren’t true (Bernard Madoff famously fooled everyone with a Ponzi scheme in which he apparently defrauded people of nearly $65 billion dollars). Just because a source reports something “officially” doesn’t make it so. Do we believe the evidence form Florida in regards to the list of players that continues to seemingly increase by the hour?

4 – Even if the documents are authentic, what does that prove? That’s the whole problem with this entire situation in major league baseball. We’re talking about things that happened years ago in many cases. There’s no medical proof of any of this. No drug tests. No blood tests. No urine tests. There is no direct proof of any of it. TO BE CLEAR, I’m not saying we should indemnify players of responsibility here, I’m merely pointing out that there is no direct link to players in the majority of these cases except in testimony from shady characters and in documents that may or may not represent reality. And this is the biggest quandary in sports at the moment in relation to the PED mess. We’re trying to prove something that we can’t prove. I have no idea if Ryan Braun took PEDs two years ago. With this being the second time in two years that his name has surfaced in connection to alleged cheating his window for support continues to narrow, but where is the proof that stands up in court? I just don’t see it. Until we have that we can be skeptical of any player linked at all to any of this, including Braun, but are you really ready to turn your back on a player merely because of an accusation that hasn’t been proven.

Have you ever been arrested or detained by the police for something you didn’t do? Have you ever been accused of lying by your boss when you weren’t? Has a significant other ever thought you were messing around with an ex of yours when you weren’t? We’ve all been accused of things that aren’t true.

I’m not going to say that players are innocent. In my heart of hearts I know they aren’t. I know it. But the fact is that so much of what we accept as truth in the sports world of late isn’t provable. It’s the old he said/she said thing with two sides offering totally different reasons for what occurred (Braun’s team says they are in the records of the Miami medical clinic because they were using the clinic as paid consultants when Braun was fighting his positive test prior to last season and that it has nothing to do with him purchasing drugs from the clinic). Will time allow us to resovle this issue? Will we ever get clarity on some of these matters? I fear we won’t for many. Let’s just hope that MLB finds a better way to test players so that we can put an end to the mess that I fear will engulf the game to the point that it will tarnish everything positive that has happened on the field. That would be an utter shame.

* Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013. At this point, I’m not downgraded guys like Gio Gonzalez, Jesus Montero, Nelson Cruz and Braun, not until we get more clarity with what is going on.

Around the Horn: November 19, 2012 – Awards

(1) Buster Posey the runaway winner of the NL MVP Award.

(2) Why did Miguel Cabrera dominate Mike Trout in AL MVP voting?

(3) Why did R.A. Dickey dominate in NL Cy Young Voting?

(4) David Price defeated Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver for the AL Cy Young.

(5) Bryce Harper narrowly edged Wade Miley for NL ROY.

(6) Mike Trout the 8th unanimous winner for AL ROY.

(7) Oddities in voting. Who are some of these voters?

BBWAA – Award Info.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Outfield

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

2012 OUTFIELDERS Top-20

1 Ryan Braun
2 Matt Kemp
3 Carlos Gonzalez
4 Justin Upton
5 Jacoby Ellsbury
6 Andrew McCutchen
7 Matt Holliday
8 Michael Bourn
9 Curtis Granderson
10 Hunter Pence
11 B.J. Upton
12 Ginacarlo Stanton
13 Shane Victorino
14 Nelson Cruz
15 Josh Hamilton
16 Adam Jones
17 Jay Bruce
18 Shin-Soo Choo
19 Brett Gardner
20 Jayson Werth

Braun was my #1 player heading into the year. He may have been edged out by Mike Trout for the honor of the best player in fantasy baseball, but Braun was simply amazing and just as good as he was in his MVP effort of ’11.

2011: .332-33-111-109-33
2012: .319-41-112-18-30

Kemp hit .303 with 23 bombs, 69 RBIs, 74 runs scored and nine thefts in a tremendous letdown season. Still, his pace for 160 games would have led to an effort of .303-35-104-112-14. If he did that, would you have complained?

CarGo produced a third straight 20/20 effort though he also had three year lows in homers (22), RBI (85), runs (.89) and OPS (.881). All things considered though, he was still an elite fantasy performer.

J. Upton was terrible. Just ask one of his owners. Justin had only 17 homers and 67 RBIs a year after 31 and 88. But was he really as bad as you thought? Not even close despite the popular perception. Upton hit .280, two points better than his career mark, stole 18 bases (he averaged 20 the previous three years), and scored a career best 107 runs, the second highest total in the NL. So much for a terrible season.

Ellsbury appeared in 74 games, the second time in three years that he didn’t make it out onto the field for half the Red Sox games. The talent is undeniable, but his inability to stay healthy is a huge concern, as is the fact that he hit just four homers in 303 at-bats. Remember, he had 32 of his career total of 56 homers in just 660 at-bats in 2011 meaning he has 24 homers in his other 1,675 ABs.

McCutchen dominated as every talent evaluator in the game thought he could. Andrew went 30/20 and just missed out on also going 100-100 as he had 96 RBIs and 107 runs scored. Toss in a .327 batting and you have a top-5 fantasy campaign.

Holliday was supposed to struggle without Albert Pujols, remember? Uh, no. Holliday hit .295 with 27 homers, 102 RBIs and 95 runs scored for the Cards.

Bourn was pathetic at the dish hitting a mere .225 over his final 70 games, but in summation his season was an unqualified success as he hit .274 (career .272) with a career best nine homers and 57 RBIs. Toss in 96 runs (one off his career best) and 42 steals, and he had another elite fantasy season.

Granderson, somewhat surprisingly, hit 43 homers with 106 RBIs and 102 runs scored giving him 2-straight years of 40-100-100. However, he also failed to hit .250 for the third time in four years, and his maddening stolen base trend continued. Here are his steals totals since 2007: 26, 12, 20, 12, 25 and 10.

Pence hit a career worst .253 with a career-low five steals. The good? He hit 24 homers with 104 RBIs, the second number being a career best. A solid though somewhat disappointing effort.

B.J. Upton started the ball rolling late because of injury, but by the end of the season he was a mere two bombs short of his first 30/30 effort. Upton only hit .246, but this was the 5th straight 30 steal effort and a second straight 20/30 performance. He also recorded 79 runs for the 6th straight year.

Stanton flashed his unsurpassed power with 37 homers and 86 RBIs in just 123 games played. What was really surprising to see was the .290 batting average, a number that he will find it hard to replicate given his approach at the plate (143 Ks just 46 walks in those 123 games).

Victorino struggled for large portions of the year and his .255 batting average was a major disappointment as were his 5-year low in RBIs (55) and his 6-year low in runs (72). At least he stole 39 bags, a career best.

Cruz appeared in 159 games, a shocking total for a player who had never taken the field 130 times. Amazingly, his per at-bat numbers were four years worsts as he hit 24 homers with 90 RBIs on the year. Those are solid numbers, but more was expected from him if he was healthy able to play 150+ games. He also isn’t running anymore with eight steals in 2012 and 17 the past two years (he stole 37 bases in 2009-10).

Hamilton had a monstrous season batting .285 with 43 dingers, 128 RBIs and 103 runs scored. For the most part he kept himself out of trouble, and he even managed to play 148 games, a four year high. An effort like this was always possible, but he was as low as he was in my rankings because of the constant off the field concerns and his inability to stay healthy making him a sizable risk. For one year those concerns disappeared.

Jones hit 16 homers in the first 51 games before slowing down the rest of the way to end the year with 32 big flies, a career best. He also stole 16 bases and scored 103 times, more career bests, as was his .287 average (by three points). Add in 82 RBIs and you’ve got yourself one hell of a campaign.

Bruce was very good, but far from the breakout star many predicted. Still, his yearly improvement is impressive and historic.

2008: 21 homers, 52 RBIs
2009: 22 homers, 58 RBIs
2010: 25 homers, 70 RBIs
2011: 32 homers, 97 RBIs
2012: 34 homers, 99 RBIs

Choo didn’t make it all the way back to his 2009-10 heyday, but he was damn impressive (.283-16-67-88-21). His season really took off when he was inserted into the leadoff spot (.310/.389/.493 in 99 games).

Gardner’s elbow literally had him on the edge of a return like six times. In the end he hit .323 with two steals in 16 games after swiping 96 bases with 185 runs scored in 2010-11. A massive letdown.

Werth hit .300 with a .387 OBP, tremendous numbers, but he only appeared in 81 games with five homers, eight steals and 31 RBIs. Just not what his owners, or the Nationals, were hoping for.

Hit: Alex Rios (#23), Dexter Fowler (#33)
I highlighted Rios as the best option outside the top-20 at the position, and for that I drew derision from many fantasy circles. I had the last laugh though as he hit .304 with 25 homers, 91 RBIs, 93 runs scored and 23 steals. Efforts like his win fantasy championships. Fowler was another player that people shied away from, and while his effort wasn’t as good as that of Rios it was still plenty helpful (.300-13-53-72-12 in just 454 at-bats).

Miss: Josh Hamilton, Hunter Pence
Misses due to injury: Ellsbury, Gardner, Werth, Carl Crawford (#21)

By Ray Flowers

Monday’s Heroes

I was watching Captain America Saturday night (and don’t worry, I finished at 10 PM leaving me plenty of time to roll out an embarrass myself at the local tavern. Mission accomplished). I gotta say that Chris Evans played the role well, but I’m also concerned that he invaded the comic universe twice since he also played Johnny Storm, aka the Human Torch, in both the Fantastic 4 films. Shouldn’t a fella be limited to one set of tights? Oh, and that Haley Atwell, how amazing did she look in that red dress?

Ryan Braun has reached 100 RBIs and 100 runs scored in each of the past four seasons (including this one). Braun has scored at least 90-runs in each of his six seasons. Braun has recorded 95 RBIs in each of his six seasons. Braun has also hit at least 32 homers in five of six seasons as well. So, to sum up, the worst numbers that Braun has ever posted are 25 homers, 97 RBIs, 91 runs and 14 steals. Those are his worst numbers. Damn impressive.

Adrian Gonzalez had two homers Sunday night. Normally that wouldn’t stand out in a such a way that I would feel like I had to mention it, but we aren’t dealing with a normal situation with AGone. Why? After hitting a homer in his first at-bat with the Dodgers, Gonzalez then went 105 at-bats without hitting his next long ball. The lack of power has been a season long issue with Adrian who has 18 homers on the year. Take a look at his decline in the homer column the past few years – 40, 31, 27 and then the 18 this year. One positive is that his GB/FB, which was out of control last year at 1.45, is back where it should be at 1.13 (career 1.10). On the downside his HR/F rate has been in hiding like Punxsutawney Phil. A career 16.1 percent mark in the HR/F column was virtually replicated the past two years as Gonzalez had identical marks of 16.4 percent. This year that number has caved to 10.1 percent. That number should rebound in 2012, even if Dodger Stadium isn’t exactly a homer haven (the park is slightly above average this year with a 1.059 HR mark according to Park Factors).

Wandy Rodriguez welcome to consistency town. Oh he’s been far from consistent this year alternating patches of dominance with an inability to consistently get batters out, but at least he’s bringing it as the season wears down (4-1, 2.58 ERA over his last seven starts). So why do I use the the term “consistent?” He has 11 wins, the same total he has reached each of the last two years. He has a 3.76 ERA. His mark the last two years is 3.53. His WHIP this year is 1.28. His mark has been between 1.24 and 1.32 each year from 2007-11. His GB/FB ratio is 1.52. The past two years it’s been in the low 1.40′s. Hey, it’s not a great skills set, especially since his K/9 rate is down to 5.99, light years from the 7.78 or better mark he has posted the last five years, but he’s still a pretty darn stable option on the bump if you’re willing to go through the up and downs. Seems like many at Fleaflicker aren’t willing to put up with it.

Fernando Rodney has a 0.64 ERA in 70.1 innings. Two things. First, that ERA is more than three full runs below his career 3.78 mark. He will also finish the year with an ERA under 4.24 for the first time in  six years. Think about that. If you multiply his current ERA by SEVEN you would end up with a 4.48 ERA. His ERA the last five is 4.42. I’m speechless, and that never happens. Second, only one pitcher who has ever lived has thrown 70-innings in a season while posting a lower mark and that was Dennis Eckersley who had a 0.61 mark in 1990 for the Athletics.

Huston Street is back in action for the Padres. Street picked up a save Sunday, his 22nd of the season, he hasn’t blown even one chance this year, even though it was a bit bumpy. That’s totally beyond the point though. Street is sporting a 5-year best with his 10.95 K/9 mark, and his ERA is a career best at 0.97, two full runs below his 2.95 career mark. However, the truly astounding thing is that WHIP which is, wait for it, 0.59. That is not a misprint. In 37 innings Street has allowed 10 walks and just 12 hits. Amazing.

By Ray Flowers