Here We Go Again

Ryan Braun was busted for failing major league baseball drug testing. He’s now subject to a 50 game suspension. Some people are calling for his head, and there is even a vocal minority that was his 2011 NL MVP award rescinded and given to Matt Kemp. What do I think about the whole Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) scenario and how it continually rears it’s ugly head in the world of baseball? I wish I didn’t have to address this yet again, but here goes.

On June 19th, 2009, I wrote one of the most difficult pieces of my life that I titled Death of the Hero? In that piece I bemoaned the fact that it appeared that an entire generation of baseball players had been using PED’s. Had sports become so tainted that it was no longer appropriate for a father to tell his child to look up to the great of the game?

Almost exactly two years ago on December 9th, 2009, I wrote an article titled The Hidden Truth. In that piece I talked about baseball’s dirty little secret, that being, how a massive number of big league ballplayers qualified for a Therapeutic Use Exemption that allowed them to take drugs that would normally be ruled illegal (the drugs were/are to treat ADHD or Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and the article goes into the fact that baseball players were/are taking such drugs at a rate that far surpasses those of us in the public sector).

On January 12th, 2010, I broke down the situation with Mark McGwire who finally, after denying it for years, admitted that he used unnatural means to help him on the filed of baseball (for the story give McGwire: The Day After a read).

Finally, about a year ago, I wrote Innocent Until Proven Guilty in response to the calls of so many out there who basically wanted to throw out all ballplayer’s performances for anyone who appeared in the 1990′s and 2000′s. The common thought was that since everyone was cheating all should be punished (I centered this piece on the case of Jeff Bagwell. The Astros’ former All-Star had finished an excellent career having never failing a drug test. However, because people assumed, with no proof mind you, that he had cheated, so some felt that he shouldn’t be eligible for the Hall of Fame). I had hoped that would be the last piece that I would ever have to write on the subject. How naive I was.

I’m not here to write about the guilt or innocence of Ryan Braun as that situation will play itself out over the coming months (Braun has vowed to fight the failed test in court. He also took a subsequent testing immediately after finding out that he failed the first test and passed without an issue). I am here to say a couple of things though.

(1) Why is anyone surprised that athletes do what they can to gain an advantage? Be it stealing signs or using supplements, athletes will always try to gain whatever advantage they can. They always have.

(2) Why is it that only baseball gets a black eye with all of this? As I’ve written and talked about many times over the years, and detailed in Innocent Until Proven Guilty, players constantly cheat in the NFL, i.e. they use PED’s, and no one cares. The prime example is Shawne Merriman who failed a test for steroids in 2006, was suspended for a quarter of the season, and was subsequently elected to the Pro Bowl that year. Think about that for a moment. The NFL had an admitted cheater in their midst and they named him to the all-star game. Do you think baseball is the only professional sport where guys use PED’s? If you do think that, I feel sorry for you.

(3) With so many worse things going on in the world, why do people get so up in arms about this issue? My favorite football example is Michael Vick. He ran an illegal dog fighting ring and murdered dogs. He goes to jail for his crimes, gets out, and no one cares anymore. Isn’t it worse to be the murderer of sentient beings that it is to stick a needle in your ass? What about the wife beaters, the womanizers, the alcoholics and the recreational drugs users in sports, why do they all get a free pass? I know what people will say, ‘but PED’s give you an advantage on the field while that other stuff is off it.’ To a certain extent that group of people is certainly right. At the same time, I don’t see Arnold Schwarsenegger or Lou Ferrigno playing baseball either, do you? There’s more to playing baseball than looking good in a wife beater. No matter how many weights you lift or how many PED’s you jam in your body, you still have to have the innate talent and drive to be a successful baseball player. Just like I wrote many times about Barry Bonds, Ryan Braun is an elite level performer whether or not he ever used a PED.

I know there are baseball players who cheat. At the same time, baseball players have been cheating since the 19th century so I’m always shocked by the people that seem to think all of this started 15 years ago. I’m not condoning it mind you, I deplore cheating, but put yourself in Braun’s shoes for a moment. Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that he is innocent and that the test was in error. Even if that is true, and it’s somehow proven to be the case, many people will never trust Braun again, and his legacy will forever be tainted.

The shame of all of this is that, yet again, baseball is being dragged through the mud even though they are the one professional sport with the stones to take a hard look in the mirror (keep plugging your into the sand football fans – no one in that sport cheats). Too bad that willingness to play the game in an open manner leaves it wide open to criticism from every sports fan in the world.

 

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Outfield

'Ryan Braun' photo (c) 2009, Barbara moore - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

 

 

2011 OUTFIELD Top-20
1 Ryan Braun
2 Carl Crawford
3 Matt Holliday
4 Carlos Gonzalez
5 Nelson Cruz
6 Josh Hamilton
7 Matt Kemp
8 Andrew McCutchen
9 Shin-Soo Choo
10 Jason Heyward
11 Alex Rios
12 Justin Upton
13 Andre Ethier
14 Hunter Pence
15 B.J. Upton
16 Ichiro Suzuki
17 Jayson Werth
18 Jay Bruce
19 Shane Victorino
20 Chris Young

Braun was amazing in 2011. You can read all about that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Crawford was a disaster in 2011. You can read all about that in Carl Crawford: Total Failure.

Holliday had all kinds of issue this year (appendicitis, a quad, a finger, a bug in his ear), and in the end it hindered his performance. Holliday still was productive hitting .296 with a .912 OPS, and his pace over 550 at-bats would have equated to 27 homers, 92 RBI and 102 runs scored. Too bad he appeared in just 124 games.

Gonzalez was injured multiple times, but don’t let that fool you, he still had a fine fantasy season (.295-26-92-92-20 in 481 ABs) even if it failed to live up to his unrepeatable 2010 effort (.336-34-117-11-26 in 587 ABs). There are few better five category options in the game.

Cruz has been killing it in the playoffs, a sure sign that if he could ever stay healthy he’d produce a truly special season. Cruz had 29 homers and 87 RBI during the year, but with 475 at-bats he failed yet again to stay healthy long enough to post his first 500 at-bat season.

Hamilton was injured, again (what a shock), as he appeared in just 121 games. However, whenever he was on the field he was darn productive as he hit .298 with 25 homers, 94 RBI, 80 runs scored and eight steals.

Kemp was the best player in fantasy baseball in 2011. Kemp finished one homer short of going 40/40 as he hit .324 with 126 RBI and 115 runs scored. Kemp led the NL in homers and RBI, and finished just .013 points behind Jose Reyes to fall just short of the Triple Crown.

McCutchen was everything that was advertised for the Pirates going 20/20 (23 homers, 23 steals), scoring 87 runs and knocking in a career best 89. His average dipped from the .280s to just .259, but that number figures to rise in 2012.

Choo was injured multiple times resulting in a season of just 85 games. After hitting .300 the last two years, his .259 average was a major disappointment, and his .344 OBP was a career worst as well. He’s still got the skills to be a top-20 outfielder, but he’ll need health to prove it.

Heyward fell so far this season (.227-14-42-50-9), that even people in keeper leagues are worried about his long term value. Immensely talented, no so quiet whispers pen him as “soft.” After an impressive rookie season and a second year flop, there may be no one in the game with more to prove.

Rios was an abject failure hitting .227 with 13 homers, 44 RBI, 64 runs scored and 11 steals. How bad were things? His .265 OBP was .010 points below his career batting average. Too talented to do this again, his BABIP (.237 versus a career .306 mark) should rebound next season, so don’t overlook him on draft day 2012.

Upton had another outstanding season for the D’backs. He posted his second 20/20 season with a career best 31 homers and 21 steals, and he also scored a career-high 105 runs. Throw in that .289 average and .898 OPS and we have an excellent all-around performer who just might be able to take his game up another notch.

Ethier hit .292 with a .368 OBP, right on his career averages (.291 and .364). Unfortunately, he hit a meager 11 homers, knocked in only 62 runs and scored just 67 times. There’s no way of sugarcoating what was a poor season made even worse by how well it started out (he hit .380 over his first 28 games).

Pence ended the year with the Phillies after getting out of the exile that was playing for the Astros. All told he had yet another, well, Pence like season resulting in 22 homers, 97 RBI, 84 runs, eight steals an a .314 average. The average an RBI marks were career bests for the ultra consistent performer.

Upton had another up and down effort for the Rays as he hit a mere .243 with a third straight season of 150+ Ks. However, he also was one homer and one RBI off his career bests (he hit 23 bombs with 81 RBIs), scored 82 runs and swiped 36 bases. He was one of the more productive outfielders in baseball if you could look past the batting average.

Suzuki finally lost it, and by “it” I don’t mean his virginity, I mean his streak of hitting .300 with 200 hits as he batted .272 with 184 hits to end his 10-year run. He still offered production with 80 runs and 40 steals, but given the cost it took to acquire him on draft day he was a substantial disappointment.

Werth was always going to lose some of his production moving from a great park with a great lineup in Philly, but he really stunk it up in certain respects in 2011. It’s fair to say he had some value, he was only one steal short of a 20/20 effort, but he hit .232, posted a 7-year low in OBP (.330) and only drove in 58 runs after averaging 92 the previous two seasons.

Bruce hit an impressive 32 homers, fell just three RBI short of his first 100 RBI campaign, and scored a career best 84 runs. Still, he was wildly inconsistent driving his owners mad (.342-12-33 in May, .241-11-40 over his last 69 games).

Victorino just goes out and gets it done year after year. He hit .279, spot on his career mark, and for the fourth straight year scored at least 84 runs (he had 95) while he hit 17 homers (one off his career best), and stole 19 bags (though that was a 5-year low).

Young hit an awful .236 including a stupefyingly low .193 in the second half, but the guy still did his best Mike Cameron impersonation with 20 homers, 71 RBI, 89 runs scored and 22 steals.

Busts: Carl Crawford #2, Shin-Soo Choo #9, Jason Heyward #10, Alex Rios #11, Andre Ethier #13, Ichiro Suzuki #16, Jayson Werth #17

There were so many busts in the outfield, I’m not even gonna list any “hits.”

By Ray Flowers

Braun: Best of the Bunch

'Ryan Braun' photo (c) 2008, Steve Paluch - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/
On March 16th, I know most of you can’t remember as far back as September 16th, but trust me on March 16th I wrote a piece that I titled Who is #3? At the time there was a pretty general consensus that Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez were the top-2 options in the fantasy game. Proving yet again that this is far from an exact science, Pujols had a solid but unspectacular season for him (.299-37-99-105-9), whereas Ramirez struggled mightily before finally succumbing to shoulder surgery (.243-10-45-55-20 in 92 games).

Since there was no consensus as to who should have been drafted #3 overall I went through a bunch of names up for consideration at that spot in the above linked piece before I settled on Ryan Braun. Before I get to Braun and what was obviously a spectacular call by me (I’m so modest), let me list the reasons why I was concerned with the other options, and then give the figures to back up what I thought.

“Some think it should be Miguel Cabrera. He worries me because of his off the field issues.”
Looks like the boozing just isn’t an issue after all. He hit a robust .344, and though he hit 30 homers with 105 RBI the homer total was a five year low while his RBI total was the worst he’s ever had in eight full seasons.

Troy Tulowitzki: “…I’m troubled by the fact that he has played less than 125 games in two of the past three years .“
He played more games than I thought he might, 143, but injuries limited him to three year lows in runs scored (81), steals (nine), OBP (.372) and SLG (.544). He still had a great year though.

Carlos Gonzalez: “…hit .289 with eight homers on the road last year and he’s only had one season of significance in the big leagues.”
He was even worse in 2011 on the road hitting .252 with a .757 OPS. He still had a great year considering he played in 127 games (.295-26-92-92-20), but everything predictably regressed.

Evan Longoria: “ I think he’s the top third baseman this year, but I don’t think third base is as shallow as some think.”
50/50 here. Third base was even more shallow than we thought as everyone was injured at one point or another. With a late season power surge he finished the year with 31 homers and 99 RBI to place himself amongst the best at the position, but he also hit a career worst .244 and stole a career low three bags.

“What about Joey Votto or Robinson Cano? Nope.”
Both players had great efforts, no if’s, and’s or but’s about it, but neither rose to the level of being the #3 selection.

Votto: .309-29-103-101-8 with a .947 OPS
Cano: .302-28-118-104-8 with a .882 OPS

Roy Halladay? Don’t get crazy on me. “
Halladay was typically grand, but he may not have even been the best pitcher on his own team (Cliff Lee posted virtually identical numbers).

All of that leads to Ryan Braun. Here are the points I made with Braun (you can get more detail from the initial piece).

(1) Consistency/Across the board production.
For the 5th straight year he hit better than .285 with more than 25 homers, 97 RBI,  91 runs and 14 steals. He produced a 5×5 line of .332-33-111-109-33 in what was his best season of a stupendous career.

(2) Health.
The previous three seasons Braun had appeared in 151 or more games. He missed out in 2011, but I’ll take the 150 total he played in every year.

(3) Upside.
I mentioned in the previous piece that if you took the career bests for Braun in the main five fantasy categories you’d end up with a season of .324-37-114-113-20. How did he do in 2011? He bettered the average at .332. He fell just short in the homer, RBI and runs scored categories with 33, 111 and 109. Still, that’s pretty damn close ain’t it? The kicker is that he went for 33 steals, just one less than he posted in 2009 and 2010.

Braun wasn’t just the best choice as the #3 selection this year, he actually ended the year as the second best fantasy performer behind only Matt Kemp (.324-39-126-115-40). And you wanted to drafted Troy Tulowitzki…

By Ray Flowers

Misery Loves Company

'Ted Williams' photo (c) 2006, Dagny Scott - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/
I know everyone is doing it, and while I’m not a follower – never have been – I felt the need to write the obligatory article dealing with the two massive collapses authored by the Red Sox and the Braves.

THE RED SOX

On September 1st the Sox led the AL East by 1.5 games over the Yankees, and they were nine games ahead of the Rays. The Sox maintained that nine game lead over the Rays as late as September 3rd. They proceeded to go 6-18 from that point forward to becomes the first time in the history of the game to squander a nine game September lead. “I’m devastated. I’m heartbroken,” Dustin Pedroia said. “To play hard for 161 games like we have and have it end like this…”

Why did they collapse? The offense was fine down the stretch, but it was the pitching that let them down. The Red Sox starters posted an ERA of 7.08 for the month of September.

THE BRAVES

If not for the Red Sox collapse, the Braves flop would be considered the worst in the history of the game.

On August 26th the Braves had a 10.5 game lead over the Cardinals.
On September 5th the Braves had an 8.5 game lead over the Cardinals.

You can blame injuries to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens, the Braves #2 and #3 starters, and no one could honestly claim that wasn’t a huge hole to fill. But still, going 9-18 including a 5-game losing streak to end the season? You just witnessed the greatest collapse in the history of the National League. “I can’t fathom it,” Freddie Freeman said.

Pitiful.

ROTATION QUESTION

You tell me, which rotation would you rather face this postseason?

Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Chris Carpenter
Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders
CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia

OR

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner

Who out there isn’t thanking the baseball gods for not having to face the Giants top-3 in the playoffs this year?

CHEERS TO

Justin Verlander led the American League in wins (24), ERA (2.40) and strikeouts (250) to capture the Pitcher’s Triple Crown.

Clayton Kershaw led the National League in wins (21 to tie with Ian Kennedy), ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248). I’m going to give him the NL Triple Crown as well even though he tied for the league lead in wins.

BOOS TO

I know it’s a 162 game season, and that Jose Reyes had 537 at-bats on the year so it’s not really fair to call him out for one game, but it was weak sauce that he bunted for a hit in his first at-bat and then pulled himself from his final game to win the NL batting title over Ryan Braun (it ended up being a .337 to .332 race). For the story of how a real man does it, make sure you click on the link to the story about Ted Williams final day in 1941.

 

By Ray Flowers

Exclusive Clubs

'Playboy Club Tour 2010' photo (c) 2010, gillyberlin - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

Every fellas dream is to be at some club surrounded by Playmates. I’m not embarrassed to say it, and neither should you be. However, it merely takes some cash or knowing the right people to get into that club – there’s no skill involved (you’d better have a lot of cash or some serious “game” if you want to stay in that club). You can’t say the same thing about the men listed below who unlocked the door to their clubs based solely upon their skills.

THE 30/30 CLUB

Ryan Braun has 31 homers and 31 steals. The homers aren’t a surprise, he averaged 32 a season his first four years in the big leagues. The steals are a surprise however. He stole at least 14 bases each of his first four seasons but his previous career best was 20 back in 2009.

Matt Kemp has 34 homers and 40 steals. That’s a career best in homers as he has upped his homer total every season of his career (seven, 10, 18, 26, 28 and 34). It’s also a career best steal total and the third time in four years he’s swiped at least 34 bags.

THE 25/25 CLUB

Jacoby Ellsbury is two homers away from joining the 30/30 club. He has 28 homers and 37 SB. He had 20 homers over his first four seasons and swiped 120 bases in his last two healthy season. Yeah, it’s been a confusing season.

Ian Kinsler has 29 homers and 25 steals. This is the second time in three years that he has reached those totals. He went 30/30 in 2009.

THE 40/20 CLUB

Curtis Granderson is having a masterful season for the Yankees highlighted by a career best 41 homers and 24 steals on the base paths (he needs two more steals to match his career best). His most impressive number this season though might be his 133 runs scored.

THE 30/20 CLUB

Justin Upton has 31 bombs and 21 steals. Not bad for a 24 year old who could get even better.

THE 20/30 CLUB

B.J. Upton isn’t the player that his younger brother is, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a highly productive ball player. B.J. is the owner of 21 homers and 30 steals for the Rays.

THE 20/20 CLUB

Carlos Gonzalez has 26 homers and 20 steals. It’s his second straight 20/20 effort.

Andrew McCutchen has 23 homers and 22 steals for the Pirates. He joined the club for the first time in 2011.

Chris Young, a teammate of Justin Upton, recently joined the club. He has 20 homers and 20 steals, the second straight year he has pulled off the trick and the third time in his career.

By Ray Flowers

History is Happening

'Cliff Lee & Ryan Howard' photo (c) 2011, Matthew Straubmuller - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/
Usually I mention players in alphabetical order in my BaseballGuys.com article, but today I’m breaking that mold as I felt that the historic work of one Phillies hurler deserved to lead off the show.

Am I talking about Roy Halladay? Nope, but I did write about him yesterday in Is It Safe? Today I’m going to discuss the history making run that Cliff Lee has provided, and if you think I’m using hyperbole, which I have to admit I do fall into on occasion, your wrong. Lee threw 8.2 scoreless innings against the Reds Wednesday night, and with the victory in that outing he moved to 5-0 on the month. That’s not historic you say? You’d be right there. However, he also posted a 0.45 ERA for the month. I’ve got your attention now don’t I? When you combine that effort with his work in June (5-0 with a 0.21 ERA) – now we’re cooking you might be thinking. In fact, Lee’s two months of near perfection have enabled him to become just the third pitcher in the history of baseball to have two separate months in one season in which a pitcher has won at least five games (without a loss) while producing an ERA under 1.00. How amazing is that? Oh, in case you were wondering who the other two men were, here you go.

Bob Gibson (1968): 6-0 with a 0.50 ERA in June and July. Yeah, he went 12-0 with a 0.50 during that stretch. Talk about amazing.

Walter Johnson (1913): 5-0 with a 0.24 ERA (April) and 6-0 with a 0.81 ERA (July).

Now you see why I led off the piece with this news.

Since the All-Star Break Ryan Braun is hitting .357 with nine homers, 27 RBI, 35 runs and 12 steals in 42 games. Yeah, he’s good.

For those of you in NL-only leagues, Chris Heisey was activated from the DL today (he had been out with an oblique issue). I’m not sold that the Reds will play him every day, but with 12 homers, 38 RBI and 36 runs in 217 at-bats he is on a pace that would net him 28 homers, 88 RBI and 83 runs scored over 500 at-bats.

How unlucky has Felix Hernandez been this year? Last year he went 13-12, and this season he is currently 13-11 with the month of September to go. Still, in his 11 losses he permitted three or fewer earned runs six times. However, that likely wouldn’t faze Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum of the Giants who have been criminally supported by their offense. I hope you’re sitting down before you read this – it’s pretty amazing

Zero ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 3 outings
M. Cain 4-0 in 5 outings
Lincecum 5-1 in 7 outings

How do you lose games when you don’t give up an earned run. Giants’ hitters should be especially proud of themselves.

One ER Allowed
MadBum 4-3 in 10 outings
M. Cain 3-1 in 6 outings
Lincecum 6-0 in 9 outings

Two ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 4 outings
M. Cain 1-2 in 6 outings
Lincecum 0-2 in two outings

What are the trio’s records in those games in which they’ve allowed two or fewer earned runs? How about 27-11. What that means though is that if they allow more than two runs the trio is just 4-21 on the year.

Jesus Montero is finally up with the Yankees. A prodigious hitter with a luminous future, scouts predict that Montero will be a middle of the order bat for years to come. The 21 year old catcher likely won’t see much time behind the plate, his defense lags well behind his bat, but he should see a fair amount of work in the DH spot, at least against left-handed pitching. He’s a must start at this point in AL-only leagues, and if you are desperate from some offense at your second catcher spot in mixed leagues you can take a flier on Montero and probably not end up looking too stupid.

 

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 21, 2011

(1) Ryan Braun signs massive contract extension.

(2) Logan Morrison likely headed to the DL with a foot injury.

(3) Gordon Beckham, Brent Morel really struggling.

(4) Ryan Zimmerman (abdominal strain) unlikely to return next Tuesday.

(5) Brandon Morrow off DL – will start Saturday.

(6) Bartolo Colon looks good in first start.

(7) Willie Bloomquist starting to slow.

By Ray Flowers

Who is #3?

Photo by Benjamin Kabek

There is pretty much a consensus this year that Albert Pujols should go off the board first overall, and Hanley Ramirez seems to be locked in as the #2 selection in most peoples minds. After that, let the games begin.

Some think it should be Miguel Cabrera. He worries me because of his off the field issues.

Some think it should be Troy Tulowitzki because of his massive production from a scarce position (shortstop). I’m troubled by the fact that he has played less than 125 games in two of the past three years.

Some say Carlos Gonzalez. The guy hit .289 with eight homers on the road last year and he’s only had one season of significance in the big leagues.

Some say Evan Longoria. I think he’s the top third baseman this year, but I don’t think third base is as shallow as some think (not if guys like Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval are still on the board after 125 names have been called out).

What about Joey Votto or Robinson Cano? Nope.

Roy Halladay? Don’t get crazy on me.

I think the clear option at #3 overall is Ryan Braun, a guy who has an ADP of about nine. Here is my argument for why Braun should be #3 (in fact, I’ll go you one further and say that I think Carl Crawford should be taken  4th overall – see the Top-300 for 2011).

THE CASE FOR BRAUN

(1) Consistency
In four big league seasons, Braun has never hit less than .285.
He has never hit fewer than 25 homers.
He has never had fewer than 97 RBI.
He has never scored less than 91 runs.
He has never stolen less than 14 bases.

That means in four seasons in the majors Braun has never produced a batting line of less than .285-25-97-91-14. Last year there were only four men in all of baseball who hit all of the marks (Braun, Pujols, Votto and CarGo), and those are the four year lows for Braun.

(2) Across the Board production
I went through the numbers above but just so it registers like it should…

Over the past four years there have been only 16 seasons of .285-25-97-91-14. Braun has fully a quarter of them meaning every other player in baseball has a grand total of 12 such seasons, or on average just three a year. Moreover, only three other men in the game have had two such seasons the past four years: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and David Wright.

(3) Health
Braun played only 113 games as a rookie, but that was because he was called up during the season from the minors. The past three years he has dealt with a myriad of bumps and bruises, but each of those years he has appeared in at least 151 games. The last three years only 12 players have appeared in at least 151 games each campaign. It doesn’t matter how great you are, if you aren’t on the field your overall production just won’t stack up the elites of the game.

(4) Upside
Braun has just under four full seasons in the big leagues and he is only 27 years old. I don’t buy into the “27 year old breakout” hype, but the fact is that Braun could easily still have more to give at the dish. That is particularly intriguing given that his best 5×5 numbers thus far would result in a 5×5 effort of .324-37-114-113-20. Do you know how many such seasons have been produced in the 20th century? The answer is none. Moreover, over the last twenty years those five marks have only been reached in one season on three occasions: Ellis Burks (1996), Larry Walker (1997) and Barry Bonds (1993).

You could raise arguments such as position scarcity and the fact that Braun has seen his ground ball rate rise substantially the past two years as reasons to pass on Braun at the number three overall spot, but to me it’s pretty clear that he would seem to have the least risk of any of the players who are consistently going in the top-10 after Pujols and Hanley are off the board. In my mind that is a huge factor that should be taken into consideration when you think about who you are going to take if you have the #3 spot on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD 2011: PART I

braun-autographs

I was fortunate to be invited back to KFFL’s Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft, K-BAD for short, for the second straight year. Last year, despite some injury and poor performance, I was able to grab third place in the league, a mere 0.5 points out of second place (you can see the team I drafted by visiting 2010 K-BAD: PART III. This year I am back to finish at the top of the heap.

In what follows you’ll see the players I chose for the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league, as well as being able to read my thoughts on why I chose the players that I did. For a full review of the entire league and what the other owners were thinking while they were making their selections (there are certainliy some big name participants in the draft), make sure you visit the K-BAD Homepage at KFFL.

* Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

Round 1-8: Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers.
Braun should be a top-5 selection in all drafts (I had him at #3 overall in The Top-25 for 2011), so I was exceedingly pleased to take him 8th overall. In each of his four seasons Braun has produced a 5×5 line of at least .285-25-97-91-14. Only four men reached those totals in 2010 – and those are Braun’s career worst totals.

Round 2-5: Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies.
In my book Utley is still the top dog at second, ever so slightly ahead of Robinson Cano because of his steal potential (you can see my argument in Top-10 2B for 2011). Injured last season, Utley was still on pace for 22 homers, 88 RBI, 101 runs and 18 thefts if he had played 155 games.

Round 3-8: Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates.
I didn’t think McCutchen would make it back to me next round, so I figured I might as well make a move now if I wanted to roster this luminous talent. The Pirates dampen his outlook somewhat, but Andrew is one of those players who can be a five category contributor with the potential to blow up in 2012.

Round 4-5: Adam Dunn, 1B, White Sox.
I almost took the plunge on Ian Kinsler, but with Chase Utley already on board at second, I went for the mind numbing consistency of Dunn. I’ll take the 40 homers and 100 RBI that he will produce knowing he could push 50 dingers in his new home in Chicago.

Round 5-8: CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees.
I never go pitching this early in 12 team drafts, but I couldn’t pass up the value that Sabathia brings given this draft spot after 2-straight seasons of at least 19 wins, 197 Ks and a 1.19 WHIP. I’ll wait on outfielders and hopefully get one of my targets next round.

Round 6-5: B.J. Upton, OF, Rays .
Sweet. Upton was one of three outfielders I almost took in the fifth round, so taking Sabathia with my last pick didn’t hinder me in the least. Shane Victorino is a safer selection than Upton, but one of these days Upton is gonna to have a monster season. Will it be 2011?

Round 7-8: Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves.
I never take two SPs in my first seven choices – never – but when Martin Prado and Stephen Drew were taken right before me I went with Hanson. Not seeing any hitters who stuck out, I figured I’d take the top SP on my board and then head back to offense in the next couple of rounds.

Round 8-5: Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles.
I really wanted to take Ben Zobrist for the positional flexibility, but third base was getting thin fast. Plus, I already have a second sacker in Utley. I think there’s still talent at the seocnd base position, so I’ll wait to add up the middle strength until the next round.

Round 9-8: Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Rays.
This draft is playing out exactly as I hoped. I took Mark Reynolds last round hoping to wait for my MI option, and the strategy worked to perfection as I grabbed Zobrist. I was tempted to take Howie Kendrick, but dual position eligibility swung my selection to Zobrist.

Round 10-5: Joakim Soria RP, Royals.
I really like having one closer I can count on, and Soria is an absolute beast. I also figured that my selection of a closer would cause others to target the bullpen hopefully letting others I covet to fall to me in the 11th round (Note: I was right as Neftali Felix, Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera were taken in the next six picks).

In PART II, I’ll continue my review of the squad.

By Ray Flowers

A Question, A Statement, A Pukefest

werth-phillies-swing

I’ve got it all for you today.

First, a mailbag question.
Second, a brief discussion off my fantasy top-25.
Third, a reason to throw up on yourself.

Who wouldn’t want to read about all of that?

I posted my top-25 fantasy players for 2011 just about a month ago. I still like the list, though I might move a couple of guys up and down a few spots. Two main notes at this point after checking out the fantasy landscape. First, I’m shocked at the wide variance with Ryan Braun this draft season. I listed him at #3 overall, but I’ve seen him go as low as #8, the spot I took him in the K-BAD fantasy league over at KFFL. Obviously I was overjoyed to get him that late. Second, I still don’t think Adrian Gonzalez, who I had at #20 on my initial list, should be going in the top-10 overall, but his current ADP is 9th, and in the K-BAD league he went 6th. He’s going to have a hard time justifying that selection since he brings no speed on the base paths.

In my keeper league I can hold on to four players. I’ve settled on Ryan Braun, Jason Heyward and Ubaldo Jimenez. For my fourth spot I’m having trouble. Would you keep David Price, Adrian Beltre or Jayson Werth?

- Todd, Downey, California

I love the young talent in Braun and Heyward, and while I’m not sold on Jimenez duplicating his work from last season, he has to be considered one of the top-15 starters in 2011 so I’m fine with protection him as well. As for the other three that you have to choose from for the last spot, some thoughts follow.

Price: Previously I gave my sentiments on Price in Hot Stove: Still Simmering. You can read the article for the details, but I’ll boil my thoughts on the young lefty down to this – he was slightly fortunate last season, and despite some undeniable growth, I’d be surprised if he repeated his overall pitching line from last season.

Beltre: One of my favorite whipping boys, I’ve written about the new Rangers’ third sacker many times this offseason. In Insanity Reigns Supreme, I broke down how amazing it was that Scott Boras was able to coax so much dough out of the Rangers. I also broke down Beltre on the field and believe, for the 17th time, that the data says he is a good, but not great, option at third base. Don’t get me wrong, I have no issue at all with him being my third basemen in standard leagues, but I certainly would not draft him expecting a repeat of last years .321-28-102-84 effort.

Werth: Everyone loved Werth as a Phillie, but now everyone seems rather down on him as a National (I discussed the signing in Around the Horn: Hot Stove, Dec.6, 2010). While h is current ADP is 52 according to MockDraftCentral, I’ve seen him fall below that in some drafts that I have participated in. Werth is leaving a good home yard, as well as a stacked lineup in Philly, so his counting numbers could suffer in Washington. Still, the past three seasons he has been pretty darn good with an average 5×5 line of .279-29-84-92-18. There’s little wrong with that.

So who would I keep? I don’t think there is any reason to keep two pitchers out of the four guys, so I automatically removed Price (plus I’m not high on him anyway). As much as I like Werth, I also don’t think it makes sense to keep three outfielders out of four players. That leaves me with suggesting you roster Beltre given your setup, even if I would prefer to roster Werth if it was an either/or decision.

Do you need another reason to hate Alex Rodriguez? In case you missed it because you spent all of last Sunday making out with your significant other and didn’t watch the Super Bowl, we were served up yet another reason to despise A-Rod. In his best “I’m a Roman Centurion home from battle’ moment, the cameras caught girlfriend Cameron Diaz feeding him popcorn. I threw up in my mouth a little bit. A-Rod found out that the cameras captured it and went “ballistic” demanding that no more shots of him were to be run on television. He got his way, but for this scribe, it didn’t come nearly in time as the vision of Diaz feeding A-Rod popcorn has been seared into my brain, and if you haven’t picked up on it yet, it’s a painful image that will haunt me for many moons. For more on the story you can click the link to A-Rod Furious at Super Bowl Candid Shot (it even has a picture so that you can make yourself nauseous as well).

By Ray Flowers