2013 – Tout Wars

Tout Wars is one of the two exclusive fantasy baseball events each year (the other is LABR which I participated in earlier in March). Thanks to the powers that be I was invited to New York to put together a squad in Tout Wars for the second straight year. Below, you will see how my team came together, and I’ll give some thoughts about the entire weekend, which by the way, was a total blast (gotta be the greatest group of folks anyone can work with).

15 team mixed league auction.
14 hitters (2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OFs, UT)
nine pitchers (any mix of starters and relievers)
$260 salary cap

* This league is using OBP in place of batting average. It’s still a 5×5 league, just with that one change.

* Numbers in () are prices paid for each player.

* This league also has a shallow bench, only four spots. However, there is also an unlimited amount of DL spots beyond the four bench spots meaning a player on the DL does not take up a bench spot – i.e. players who start the year on the DL can be replaced with players off the waiver-wire.

C: John Jaso ($6), Tyler Flowers (4)
1B: Eric Hosmer (17)
2B: Howie Kendrick (12), Emilio Bonifacio (6), Daniel Murphy (Reserve)
3B: Martin Prado (14), Manny Machado (6), Pablo Sandoval (14), Alex Rodriguez (Res)
SS: Derek Jeter (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (36), Bryce Harper (33), Domonic Brown (6), Jon Jay (4), Cameron Maybin (6), Billy Hamilton (Res)

STARTING PITCHERS: Brandon Morrow (13), Cliff Lee (23), Zack Greinke (14), Tim Hudson (4), Ryan Dempster (1), Edinson Volquez (Res)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Sergio Romo (16), Joel Hanrahan (11), Mike Adams (3), Jose Veras (4)

Jaso is a solid hitter, and in an OBP league he’s a lot better option than in “normal” leagues (he had an elite .394 OBP last season). Flowers an I are not related but can you blame me for drafting my namesake? He has power and his OBP should be about league average.

Hosmer has had a killer spring, and you know I expect a bounce back (see his Player Profile). Machado may not have a strong OBP, but the rest of his game should be very solid for the price. Sandoval has that elbow issue, so there is uncertainty. I could have used my money elsewhere (another arm perhaps, see below for more on that), but when I saw him sitting there for such a cheap price I had to take the plunge. A-Rod goes to the DL, and I’ll grab another player.

Kendrick will never get to the level some hoped for, but he’s always solid across the board (see his Player Profile). He does take a bit of a hit in an OBP league though. Murphy was a nice reserve round add. I’ll be able to place him on the DL and add another player (a shortstop), to fill out my lineup. Wait, how does Emilio qualify at second? In Tout there is a 15 game per position requirement, not 20. Emilio appeared in 15 games at second base last season. Prado also qualifies in the outfield, and by this point I think everyone knows I’m a big fan.

Jeter isn’t great, and it looks like he’ll miss the first week of the season, but for $7 who is gonna complain? Not I.

CarGo on my team everyone understands, but Harper? I like Harper, but I’m not predicting a top-10 season this year like others are. “So Ray, why is he on your team then?’ I tossed out Harper at $33 and then… crickets. I was very surprised that no one said $34. Did I miscalculate? Certainly seems that way, though it’s not an obnoxious bid (Stanton went for $34, the same Price as Justin Upton to make me feel a little better, but when other 20/20 types in the outfield went for much less – Choo $25, Cespedes $24, Heyward $31 – let’s just say I wasn’t overly excited). There is no doubt Harper has the talent to justify that bid, just wouldn’t have been my first choice. Brown has had a tremendous spring, and there aren’t any more talented outfielders that went for less than $6. Jay isn’t exciting to most, but he is a .300 career hitter who had a .373 OBP with 19 steals last season in 117 games played. Maybin will struggle in OBP, but his wrist seems healthy. There’s a 15/40 season lurking here. Hamilton was a total shot in the dark reserve add. Normally I wouldn’t have done that, but since I have two injured guys I can place on the DL, I figured I could add Hamilton at little risk.

Yes, that was me at 2 AM at Foley’s shooting a double shot of Jameson. Take that Kay Adams. That’s right, the Oracle doesn’t just drink fruity drinks (check out the shocked look on Kay’s face in this photo… that’s the Oracle on the left and Kyle Elfrink on the right). Well, I do most of the time…

I love Cliff Lee. He’s a top-5 option in my mind. He gave me six wins last year in Tout, but I’m doubling down on him this season. I might have paid a dollar or two more when compared to other similar arms, but I feel like I made that back when I got Greinke for just $14. Morrow for a dollar less has a lot of up as well. That’s a pretty strong trio in my mind. Add in veterans like Hudson and Dempster and that’s a solid core. I also felt really good about Volquez in the reserves. He had an ERA under three with a WHIP in the 1.20′s and darn near a K per inning in his home starts last season.

As usual, I like my pen. I snagged Adams with an early bid, and he’s a dominant arm when healthy. Romo might have gone for a dollar or two more than he should have, but I’ve long said he’s a top-10 reliever in baseball if he can stay healthy. Some are worried about the varied performance of Hanrahan in Spring. I’m not. Jose Veras is no great shakes but he’s been over 10 Ks per nine the past three years and he appears to be the Astros main option in the 9th.

Some final thoughts.

My team has a ton of speed but might be a bit thin on power. I’ll address that at some point on the trade market once I get clear on the steals.

My staff needs another arm. I’ll almost certainly add one in the first waiver period with one of my two DL spot openings (I will use the other spot to get a shortstop to help cover until Jeter returns).

I usually limp slowly into drafts, but I went a bit bigger than normal thanks to the Harper add. That was unfortunate too. This draft would have played perfectly into my hands if I done my normal start slow, wade into the water slowly thing. As it was, I spent big early on some folks and that meant in the middle rounds, when a lot of “my guys” were going for less than market value, I just didn’t have the cash to spend (this was particularly evident on the hill – Lincecum for $10, Gallardo $15, Zimmerman $13, Wilson $8). I really hope I don’t regret not having the cash to spend on Lincecum. Hell, if I had gotten that foursome for $46 I would have felt flipping fantastic.

Best Picks: Bonifacio/Maybin for $6 each, Greinke for $14.
Worst Pick: Harper for $33 (only because it wasn’t my plan, not cause I hate the player).

Click on the link to see the 2013 Mixed Tout results.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August14, 2012

(1) C.J. Wilson’s hand OK, but he’s struggling.

(2) Ryan Vogelsong bombed. Still he’s been remarkably consistent.

(3) Carlos Villanueva pitching very well as a starter.

(4) Ryan Dempster looks terrible for Rangers (as I predicted might happen in Trade Day Diary). Still, not all hope is lost.

(5) Danny Espinosa doing better than you likely think.

(6) Albert Pujols producing, what a shock. On pace to make history yet again.

By Ray Flowers

Trade Day Diary

The 2012 MLB Trade Deadline is upon us. At BaseballGuys.com there’s no way we could sit out the action which figures to be hot and heavy. We’ll be checking in throughout the day with some thoughts on all of the moves that you need to be made aware of as teams begin to set themselves up for the push for the playoffs.

COMPLETED DEALS

Dodgers Receive: Shane Victorino
Phillies Receive: RHP’s Josh Lindblom, Ethan Martin

The Dodgers get a much needed bat to his at the top of their order. An outfield of Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Victorino is the best trio in the NL. Victorino has had a bit of an up and down season but he’s been on top of his game since the All-Star break hitting .357 with five steals and 14 runs scored in 15 games. As a side note. The Phillies are going to call up Domonic Brown, so look for him to get a chance to play almost every day the rest of the way giving him solid value in NL-only leagues.

Rangers Receive: Geovanny Soto
Cubs Receive: RHP Jacob Brigham and some other stuff
(that “stuff” is either a PTBNL or cash).

Soto will slide into a backup job behind the dish since the Rangers already have Mike Napoli. Soto hasn’t hit since 2010, well he hit 17 homers and had 54 RBIs last year, but he also batted .228 last year and isn’t even hitting .200 this year with 35 hits in 176 at-bats (.199). He’ll obviously hold some AL-only value, but his days of even being a catcher #2 in 15 team, two catcher, mixed leagues appear done… at least for 2012. As a result of this deal the Rangers designated Yorvit Torrealba for assignment.

Dodgers Receive: Brandon League
Mariners Receive: RHP Logan Bawcom and OF Leon Landry

League obviously won’t be closing with Kenley Jansen already in town, but he should slide in very nicely in a support role in the Dodgers bullpen given that heavy, an I mean 16 lbs bowling ball heavy, fastball. Still, he’s sporting a 1.42 K/BB ratio in 44.2 innings, so I’m not a huge fan of dumping a lot of FAAB money to add him to an NL-only roster.

Phillies Receive: OF Nate Schierholtz, C Tommy Joseph, RHP Seth Rosin
Giants Receive: Hunter Pence and Cash

It’s about time the Giants added another power bat. Pence-Posey-Sandoval, when all healthy, finally gives the Giants a legitimate 3-4-5 set of bats in the middle of the order. The move to San Francisco doesn’t figure to help Pence much offensively though… or does it? The perception is that Philly is a great hitters park but check out the numbers which tell a different story. At home in 2012 Pence has a .721 OPS that is .121 below his .842 mark on the road.

Rangers Receive: Ryan Dempster
Cubs Receive: RHP Kyle Hendricks, 3B Christian Villanueva

The Cubs were in on Matt Garza too, but they deemed Dempster to be the better medical risk. Going to the AL to pitch in Texas isn’t going to do Dempster’s ratios any favors, not when he doesn’t deserve them in the first place. Still, it’s well worth spending big in AL-only leagues to acquire his services. As a result of his addition the mightily struggling Roy Oswalt has been sent to the bullpen, though the club might still need his services as a starter at some point after the club also announced that Neftali Feliz will have to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Reds Receive: Jonathan Broxton
Royals Receive: LHP Donnie Joseph, RHP J.C. Sulbaran

As a set up man with the Reds, Broxton’s fantasy value is in the total toilet. Given the massive regression in his K/9 this year there is no reason to bother having him on your roster in a mixed league unless you are looking for holds. Broxton should form a tremendous bridge to Aroldis Chapman alongside Sean Marshall. In KC, it seems like Aaron Crow or Greg Holland will be asked to close, though Kelvin Herrera is also in the mix. My money is on Holland.

Yankees Receive: Casey McGehee
Pirates Receive: Chad Qualls

McGehee will help to fill in while A-Rod misses time on the shelf. Hitting just .230 on the year with eight homers, the last time that McG was an impactful hitter for an extended period of time was 2010 when he hit .285 with 23 homers and 104 RBIs. Qualls may not even be worth adding in NL-only leagues.

Pirates Receive: Gaby Sanchez
Marlins Receive: Gorkys Hernandez, RHP Kyle Kaminska, a 2013

Sanchez hit .273 with 18 homers, 85 RBIs and 72 runs scored in 2010. Last year he hit .266 with 19 homers, 78 RBIs and 72 runs scored. This year he’s been hideous appearing in only 55 big league games (he’s spent a lot of time in the minors). In 183 at-bats Sanchez has hit .202 with three homers. A worthwhile gamble for the Pirates, but don’t expect much production the reest of this season.

Red Sox Receive: Craig Breslow
D’backs Receive: Scott Podsednik, Matt Albers 

The Sox sent out two spare parts for lefty who has been a very solid bullpen arm since entering the league in 2005. He’s enjoy a fine season this year with a 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 3.23 K/BB ratio. None of these three is worth a look in anything other than league specific setups

Cardinals Receive: Edward Mujica
Marlins Receive: 3B Zack Cox

One more name removed for 9th inning work with the Marlins. Mujica had a 2.96 ERA in 67 games last season but his 6.00 K/9 mark is his lowest since 2007 and he continues to be plagued by the long ball. Cox was a first round selection in 2010, but he’s struggled to find consistency. This year he has hit a mere .254 with nine homers and an OPS of .716 at Triple-A.

NOT TRADED: Rafael Betancourt, Stephen Drew, Chase Headley, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Denard Span, Justin Upton

 By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July25, 2012

(1) Hanley Ramirez dealt to Dodgers. Will he live up to expectations?

(2) Ryan Dempster not on way to Braves? Maybe Dodgers? Maybe staying in Chicago?

(3) Zack Greinke on Braves radar?

(4) A-Rod fractures hand, out 6-8 weeks. Chase Headley target?

(5) Cole Hamels signs 6-year, $144 deal with Phillies.

(6) Ryan Roberts to Rays.

(7) Wandy Rodriguez dealt to Pirates (will his ownership rate go up in his new home? See Feaflicker).

(8)  Since All-Star break – Yoenis Cespedes/Carlos Santana on fire.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July24, 2012

(1) Ryan Dempster traded or not?

(2) Ichiro now in Big Apple after trade from Mariners.

(3) Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante sent to Detroit for future ace Jacob Turner.

(4) Colby Lewis done for year – elbow surgery.

(5) Justin Smoak sent to Triple-A.

(6) Roy Halladay shaky.

(7) Jordan Zimmerman/Ryan Vogelsong = money in the bank.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Pitchers Down, Catchers Up

Trevor Ray and Justin Fensterman discuss some injured pitchers and some possible streaming options. They also discuss a couple of catcher options that are great waiver wire pickups.

Evan Longoria, Ryan Dempster, Brandon Beachy, Felipe Paulino, Brandon Morrow, Matt Harrison, Clayton Richard, Salvador Perez, Derek Norris, Martin Maldanado

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed. Third, at the bottom of this piece is a chance to partake in a FREE daily fantasy baseball game with a chance to play for $250 in prizes. Psst. I’m in the league too. Think you can best The Oracle?

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Adam Dunn vs. Clayton Kershaw:  Up to 22 homers and 50 RBIs, Dunn has had a great bounce back season. However, why on earth would I suggest playing a guy who has hit .183 against lefties this season when that same player has hit .223 against port siders in his career? It’s only a handful of games mind you, but Dunn has annihilated Kershaw in 11 at-bats going deep three times, driving in seven runs and batting .636. That’s why.

Scott Podsednik vs. Ryan Dempster: Three times in his last four games Pods has produced two or more hits, and in 51 at-bats with the Red Sox this year he has hit .373 with four steals. Facing Dempster he’s also been a producer with seven hits in 18 at-bats (.389) and he’s also walked four times leading to a .500 OBP.

Ben Revere vs. Yovani Gallardo: The speedster with the Twins has a hit in nine of 10 games to raise his average up to .339 (he’s had two or more hits in six of those games). He’s also swiped six bags while scoring nine runs in those 10 outings. Give him a matchup with a pitcher that he’s produced four hits in 10 at-bats against and he would seem to be a borderline must start.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ryan Dempster vs. Red Sox: Dempster has allowed one or zero runs in three of his last four outings. He’s also tossed 15 scoreless innings in his last two outings while walking a single batter to lower his ratios to Maddux-like levels (2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). Current Sox batters are hitting only .246 against Dempster as well, so are you willing to take a shot on the righty in this matchup?

Kyle Lohse vs. Royals: Current Royals hitters have only 50 at-bats off Lohse, but to say they have lacked success would be a massive understatement. The club has hit .240 against him with a .615 OPS as they have failed to go deep, have drawn only one walk, and struck out seven times.

Ryan Vogelsong vs. Mariners: In 30 outings last season Vogelsong had a 2.71 ERA. In 11 starts this year that number is 2.26. Over his last eight starts six times he’s permitted one/zero earned runs, and the two times he didn’t he allowed a total of five runs over 13.1 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Rajai Davis vs. Cliff Lee: Davis has stolen four bags in his last seven games, and though he has only 99 at-bats on the year he’s swiped 14 bases. He’s also hit a fair clip over his last 31 games batting .278. There isn’t much to go on with this matchup but in 11 at-bats Davis has produced six hits (.545 average).

Brandon Phillips vs. Jonathon Niese: Brandon Phillips has five hits in 10 at-bats against Niese, and two of those hits have been big flies. Phillips has also really kicked his game into gear in June hitting .353 with three homers and 13 RBI in 12 games.

Gaby Sanchez vs. James Shields: If you want about the most random call you could possibly find, look no further. Sanchez has produced six hits, including a homer, and five RBI in 13 at-bats against Shields, good for a .462 average. Of course Sanchez is hitting, if you can call it that, .190 on the year and has only two hits in 15 at-bats since he was recalled from the minors.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Chad Billingsley vs. White Sox: Chad has allowed two runs over 14 inning in his last two starts leading to two victories. Billingsley has also struck out eight batters in three of his last four outings. The question is – which Billingsley will show up? The guy who throws strikes or the one who nibbles and walks four or five batters and gets into trouble?

Tim Lincecum vs. Mainers: Once more into the breach… this might be it. I might have to change my thoughts on Lincecum if he doesn’t come through with a strong outing. (1) His rotation spot is in danger (the Giants might move him to the bullpen to work on things). (2) He’s basically returning home to pitch in Seattle. (3) The Mariners have the 4th worst batting average (.234) and the second worst OBP (.297) in baseball. This is it Timmy – make it happen.

James Shields vs. Marlins: I know I just mentioned how Sanchez hits Shields hard, but that’s not something the rest of the Marlins can say. If we remove Sanchez work the Marlins club has hit .217 with a mere seven RBIs over 129 at-bats.

CONTEST – TAKE ON RAY FLOWERS

Daily Joust is offering you a chance to make some free money, and you get to also take me on in the process (if you beat me you get another $5 bonus).

BaseballGuys has partnered with DailyJoust.com to give everyone an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season. There is a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday June 15th starting at 7pm EST.

That’s right, it’s FREE to enter, and you get a chance to play for $250 in prizes (there is also a 40% deposit bonus up to $400).

Choose your roster with the following positional requirements: C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

1. To register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest click on the BBGuys Landing Page and sign up.

2.  Watch the live scoring on DailyJoust to see how your team stacks up against the competition – and me.

Are you game?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 6: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Ryan Dempster (+14, $357K in DailyJoust salary)
Working around an injury, Dempster has taken the hill five times this year with spectacular results: 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and never allowing more than two runs in a start. He’s also posted a 3.60 K/BB ratio while striking out 36 batters in 35.1 innings. You really can’t pitch much better than he has to this point. The only negative is the anemic offensive support that he has received as he’s failed to win a game, again, despite only allowing more than one run one time (he allowed two runs to the Brewers). Shame on you Cubs.

Christian Friedrich (+77, $228K)
Was recalled to take the spot of Guillermo Moscoso in the Rockies rotation and he had a solid first start allowing two runs, only one earned, over six innings against the Padres. However, the start was against the Padres, and it was at Petco, so that makes profiling the effort difficult. This left hander has had a rough couple of years after once being regarded as one of the better lefty pitching prospects in the game. Last season he went 6-10 with a 5.00 ERA at Double-A, so it would be wise to be very wary of him turning into Lance Lynn anytime soon.

Jimmy Rollins (+11, $72K)
No player on the Phils has struggled worse than Rollins with Howard-Utley out of the mix. Hitting just .230 with one homer the only thing keeping Rollins afloat is his seven steals. For a guy with a putrid .275 OBP his 17 runs scored in 35 games isn’t bad, and it’s not like he’s going to be losing any playing time, but this has still been a painfully slow start to the year. Just a season removed from 16 homers, 30 steals and 87 runs scored, did Rollins get “old” overnight? I’m betting he didn’t.

Yovani Gallardo (+48, $243K)
After that shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals (8 ER in 2.0 IP) Gallardo, as he always does, rebounded in his last two outings to allow a total of five runs while striking out 12 batters in 12 innings. In one of the odder starts to a season of any arm out there, if you remove his two starts against the Cardinals – 14 ERA in 5.2 innings – here are his numbers from his other five starts: 2.45 ERA an a 1.15 WHIP. Just don’t pitch him when he faces the Cards and you would appear to be fine.

Jake Westbrook (+52, $323K)
We’ve seen plenty of pitchers have their career revived while pitching in St. Louis, so maybe Westbrook is the next arm in that line to do so. His 1.76 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through six starts are special, especially for a guy with carer marks of 4.27 and 1.39. Only once in six starts has he failed to produce a quality start, and he wasn’t awful in that outing allowing four runs. Through 41 innings he has a solid 2.70 K/BB ratio, but it’s one full batter above his career rate, while his 5.93 K/9 mark is also a batter above his carer norm. Pitchers don’t usually post career bests in those numbers in their 12th big league season. Solid but unspectacular, he has nowhere to go but down from here.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Homer Bailey (-47, $162)
Blessed with a big arm, Bailey simply cannot form any type of consistency. A run of 4-straight quality starts was broken up by a stinker against the Brewers as he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings. He’s also been taken deep six times in six starts helping to explain his 4.93 ERA. His current K/BB rate of 1.85 points to just how middling a performer he continues to be (over at Fleaflicker he is only owned in seven percent of leagues). It certainly doesn’t seem like his rotation spot is in serious jeopardy, but at some point the Reds are going to need to see some improvement, or at least some consistency.

Asdrubal Cabrera (-19, $96K)
Hitting .315 on the season would be a tremendous accomplishment for a guy who owns a .283 career mark. However, Cabrera was hitting .356 literally a week ago so he’s clearly slumped a wee bit. Asdrubal one one RBI in his last seven games, and he has just three homers and two steals on the season. Where is the guy that went 25/17 last year? He’s just where I said he would be in his Player Profile – he’s gone.

Ross Detwiler (-52, $247K)
Ross has made six starts, has failed to allow more than three runs in an outing, owns a 2.10 ERA an a 1.02 WHIP through 34.1 innings. It’s impossible to find any fault with his efforts so far this year. As I’ve said before he doesn’t have the underlying skills to support this hot start, but he is generating a ground ball rate of 54 percent with 6.55 K’s per nine, so maybe the landing will be a soft one even when the regression comes. So maybe he isn’t going to win the Cy Young award this season but he’s still had a wonderful start to the season.

Dan Haren (-80, $227K)
If his current owner is panicking after he allowed five runs in 3.2 innings in his last start, or because he has a 4.19 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, now is the time to pounce. Haren is sporting a 7.33 K/9 mark, slightly better than last season, and he’s currently walking a mere 1.88 batters per nine innings (career 1.89). He’s also been saddled with a .323 BABIP which might continue, but at the same time he’s never had a mark above .311 for a season and owns a career mark of .290. I’m also pretty confident he won’t end the year with a 22.9 percent line drive rate which would be a career worst. Given time to normalize Haren should do just that.

Ian Kennedy (-36, $229K)
He was never going to match last season, so put that out of your head (see his Player Profile). Still, prior to giving up six runs in his last outing, Kennedy had a 3.23 ERA through six starts showing that’s he’s still darn likely to be a successful arm. Through seven outings Kennedy owns an impressive 3.36 K/BB ratio and his GB/FB, HR/F and line drive rates are all pretty darn similar to last season, so just pass on from the bad outing the last time he took the hill and realize this is still one fine fantasy option.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

History in the Making

A slugger made history. A pitcher who also made history has hit hard times. A pitcher is getting no love despite personal success. A former elite option is returning to action. Two middling hurlers have been mighty impressive. And oh, Kate Beckinsale…

Josh Hamilton had one of the greatest nights in baseball history Tuesday as he went deep four times with eight RBI as he became just the 16th player every to hit four dingers in a game. He also hit a double to propel him to 18 total bases, the most in a game in the history of the American League (Shawn Green had 19 total bases in his four homer game for the Dodgers in 2002). So what do I say to all of that? Trade Hamilton now at his zenith. Remember, the guy has averaged 114 games played the past three years.

Reason 1,963 why wins mean nothing… Ryan Dempster has a 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 9.17 K/9 an a 3.60 K/BB ratio through five starts and he is 0-1 for the Cubs.

Phil Humber tossed a perfect game on April 21st, the 21st in the history of the game. However, he’s been an unmitigated disaster in three outings since. Humber has tossed 13.1 innings an allowed 20 hits. As bad as that sounds, it’s nowhere near the worst of it. In those 13.1 innings he’s also walked 11 batters, allowed five home runs and permitted, and his is no misprint, 20 earned runs to cross the plate. Add that all up and Humber, in his last three starts, has an ERA of 13.50 an a WHIP of 2.40. Now you see why I had him ranked outside my top-100 amongst starting pitchers this season and why all that talk about him taking the next step this season were baseless.

I know the movie was terrible, but if anyone can watch Underworld Awakening – which was released on DVD this week – and see Kate Beckinsale and not want to immediately buy some leather pants, then I don’t know what your problem is. Where is my Kate Beckinsale? What a looker.

Andy Pettitte will start for the Yankees on Sunday. With a name that will almost certainly far outpace his production, Pettitte is nothing more than an innings eater for a mixed league staff, an a moderate one at that. The 39 year old tossed four games as he worked his way back into shape and he allowed seven earned runs (3.71 ERA) and 22 base runners (1.29 WHIP) against the whipper snappers in the minors, not exactly impressive totals.

Joe Saunders got lit up Monday allowing six earned runs in 3.1 innings in his first non-quality start of the year in his sixth start. It’s all about the law of averages, or regression to the mean if you prefer. Saunders is the owner of a career 4.10 ERA an only twice in four seasons as a full-time starter has his ERA been under 4.40. Clearly he wasn’t going to post a sub 2.00 ERA this season. In fact, even with his outing Monday his ERA is still nearly a full run better than it has ever been at 2.50 (he had a 3.41 mark in 2008). Given Saunders skill set everything, an I mean everything, will have to go right for him this season to post an ERA under 3.40. What that means is that he still has a long way go to regress back to the pitcher he actually is. Be sure you’re aware of that if you have him rostered as anything other than a rotation filler in mixed leagues.

Carlos Zambrano was a pitcher I targeted as a pick up this week because of his two start status. Consider game one a rousing success as Big Z tossed a nine inning shutout at the Astros permitting only three hits and one walk while striking out nine. I know it was the Astros which is akin to mowing down a Triple-A roster, but it’s time we give Carlos some props. His 1-2 record blows chunks but it certainly has nothing to do with how he has performed as he’s posted a 1.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP for the Marlins. Moreover, Zambrano has made six starts, all of which have been “quality starts” (at least six innings pitched while permitting three or fewer runs). A hell of a start for the combustible one.

Here are some pitchers that are bound to have brighter days ahead given their massive BABIP mark (it’s very rare to see a hurler end a year with a mark as high as .330).

.439 – Josh Johnson
.407 – Mar Scherzer
.381 – Ivan Nova
.369 – Zack Greinke
.363 – Juan Nicasio

By Ray Flowers

Can You Wait on Pitching?

On Sunday night on Livin’ the Fantasy on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we did a mock draft. Given that I’ve done so many mock drafts, an it gets old dominating every time (I’m so modest), I thought I would change things up an implement a crazy plan to see if I could do something highly unconventional (to say the least), and still put together a squad to be feared. Before I get to how my team turned out, here are the rules.

5×5 scoring
Mixed League
12 teams
Hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Pitcher: Any nine

Drafting out of the nine hole, I decided to see what would happen if I started out taking 5-straight outfielders. Check out the powerhouse outfield I was able to assemble in the first five rounds, it’s as impressive a unit as you’ll come across – Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino. Down Crawford for his poor performance in 2011, and Upton for his poor batting average, but that’s as dynamic a group of five outfielders you could possibly assemble. All five men are going 15/15 in 2012 if they are healthy, and it’s possible, even if not probable, that all five could go 20/20.

You’re saying to yourself – well that’s great Ray but your team is going to stink since you took this tact at the draft table. My reply is hogwash. Let’s take a look at my offensive squad.

C: Yadier Molina, Chris Iannetta
1B: Mark Reynolds
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Pablo Sandoval
MI/CI: Daniel Murphy, Martin Prado
OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino
UT: Alex Rios

I have a couple of average killers in Upton, Reynolds an Iannetta, but I was able to add Prado who should bounce back to hit .300 (see his Player Profile) and Daniel Murphy (see his Player Profile) to help offset those guys (not to mention .300 types like Sandoval, Kendrick and CarGo that I also rostered). I’ve also got positional flexibility with the following guys qualifying in at least two spots: Reynolds, Kendrick, Murphy and Prado. I really like this unit, and if a guy like Alex Rios bounces back like I hope/expect (see his Player Profile) then this unit will be terrific.

OK, so my offense rocked, but what about my pitching? This is where PART II of my plan came into being. Not only did I take five outfielders with my first five picks, I waited until the 14th round to take my first pitcher (I took my last offensive player, my second catcher, in round 23, but from rounds 14-22 it was pitcher-rama). So my staff must be awful waiting that long to grab arms right? You be the judge.

Brandon Morrow
Ryan Madson
Cory Luebke
Kenley Jansen
Joe Nathan
Ryan Dempster
Frank Francisco
Ricky Nolasco
Bud Norris

OK my ratios may not be great, but I three closers (Madson, Nathan and Francisco) who could give me 90 saves. I also grabbed Jansen who might be one of the five most electric pitchers in baseball. If he closes 30 saves will happen. If he serves as a setup man in Los Angeles he might lead all relievers in baseball in strikeouts. Either way, this is an impressive foursome out of the bullpen (since I waited so long on starters I thought it would make sense to try and build a strong group of relievers to challenge for the lead in saves and to also help keep my ratios in check).

As for my starters, again, their ratios may not impress. But I ask you this – how many other teams in the league have five starters who appear to be well on their way to at least 150 strikeouts? Look at these strikeout totals from last year: Morrow (203), Dempster (191), Luebke (154 in 139.2 IP), Nolasco (148) and Norris (176). Remember that I didn’t take a single hurler until the 14th round. I’ll take a staff with power arms like this almost every day of the week.

Could a team like this, heck could this team, win a championship? I certainly think it could. I also hope that this little off kilter operation will help to point out that you don’t have to, no matter what anyone says, jump into the pitcher hopper early in drafts (in this draft pitchers went way too early with seven taken in the first 28 picks). Remember, I would still, in an actual draft, have six or seven bench rounds to bolster my pitching staff, and that opportunity to build more depth would certainly provide me plenty of chances to grab some arms that could bring me solid performances in 2012. It may have not come about in a conventional manner, but I like the way this squad turned out. What about you?

 DRAFT RESULTS

By Ray Flowers