2012 Positional Review – Catchers

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHER Top-10

1 Carlos Santana
2 Mike Napoli
3 Matt Wieters
4 Brian McCann
5 Joe Mauer
6 Miguel Montero
7 Buster Posey
8 Alex Avila
9 Yadier Molina
10 J.P. Arencebia

Santana had a monster second half (.281-13-46-41 in 74 games) that helped him to a strong season in the counting categories (18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 72 runs) even if his batting average of .252 was disappointing. He was the only AL catcher to go 15-75-70.

Napoli had 24 homers exactly matching his 2008-11 average. Too bad he also hit a career worst .227 with his lowest RBI total in three years (56 after years of 68 and 75).

Wieters had an impressive season with 23 homers and 83 RBIs. He was the only catcher in the AL go go 20-80. Like Santana above though, he failed to live up to expectations in the batting average category at .249.

McCann recorded 20 homers for the fifth straight year and six time in seven seasons, but that was his only highlight. He failed to record 70 RBIs, with 67, for the first time ever (not counting his 180 at-bat first season). He scored 44 runs, his first time under 50 ever (other than his abbreviated first season). He hit a career worst .230, only .049 points below his career average. Obviously his injured shoulder was a major issue. Hopefully surgery will fix what ails him but he may not be 100 percent by the start of the 2013 season.

Mauer, in retrospect, should have been ranked higher as he did what he always does. Mauer led all AL catchers in batting (.319) an all catchers in OBP (.416). He was also the only catcher in baseball to score 80 runs (he had 81), he went deep 10 times and drove home an AL position leading 85 runners and stole eight bases for good measure.

Montero started slowly hitting .252 with two homers in his first 41 games, but he closed like gangbusters leading to a second straight season hitting .280 with 15 homers, 85 RBIs and 65 runs scored (.286-15-88-65).

Posey will likely win the NL MVP, but don’t forget that he was coming off a significant leg injury causing everyone to doubt whether or not he would ever return to his previous glory. Boy did he return all right, and then some. Posey led baseball with a .336 batting average while going deep 24 times with 103 RBIs, while he had a .408 OBP an an over the top .956 OPS. He was the most dominating catcher in the game, and if someone tells you otherwise stop talking to them about baseball cause they are a moron.

Avila was a total stinker. He lost 10 homers (down to nine), 34 RBIs (down to 48), 21 runs (down to 42), .042 points in batting average (down to .242) and .155 points in OPS (down to .736). A miserable season that leaves in doubt whether or not he will ever get back to his 2011 levels (.295-19-82-63).

Molina played superb defense, and this season his offense reached never before seen heights with career bests in all the fantasy categories (.322-22-76-65-12). A truly remarkable fantasy season for a player who most had ranked 5-8 spots lower than me.

Arencebia’s season was marred by an injury that limited him to just 347 at-bats, 96 fewer than 2011. He still socked 18 homers with 56 RBIs but he continued to K a ton (108) while never walking (18 free passes) leading to an unacceptable average (.233) and OBP (.275).

Hit: Ryan Doumit (#15), Wilin Rosario (#28)
I singled Doumit and Rosario out as two of my players to target at the position this year after the top-10 were off the board. Boy did they deliver. What did I think that Doumit could do this year? In his Player Profile I wrote the following: “Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2.” He went .275-18-75-56-0 in 484 at-bats. Rosario led all catchers with 28 homers – in just 396 at-bats. He also knocked in 71 runners and scored 67 times himself in a truly dominating effort that cost you peanuts on draft day.

Miss: Alex Avila

 By Ray Flowers

Review: K-BAD

The folks over at KFFL.com have been gracious enough to invite me to participate in KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft (K-BAD) the last couple of years. When you see how my team performed no wonder they invited me. I’m apparently an easy mark.

Ryan Doumit was great (.275-18-75). Not so much Kurt Suzuki who burned me in pretty much every league (literally every one huh?). As they say, love hurts.

Miguel Cabrera was my rock. Triple Crown winner (.330-44-139).

Howie Kendrick didn’t match his 2011 effort but he was solid (.287-8-67-57-14).

Kevin Youkilis didn’t come close to living up to my expectations with his worst season (.235/.336/.409).

Derek Jeter was one run and one steal from a .315-15-55-100-10 season.

Mark Reynolds and Dustin Ackley didn’t exactly anchor my CI/MI spots.

Matt Holliday, B.J. Upton, Dexter Fowler and Shane Victorino were a strong base in the outfield, but Brennan Boesch (.240-12-54-52 in 470 at-bats) and Vernon Wells (.230-11-29-36 in 243 at-bats) were dreadful as my 5th outfield option. I should have listened to my own review of Boesch.

Daniel Murphy was solid and qualified at multiple positions. Rafael Furcal was spectacular for two months (.333 with 37 runs and eight steals in April-May) and good in the first half (.275 with 54 runs scored) before his work at the dish caved (.239 with a .600 OPS over his last 38 games). Oh, and finally my boy, Chris Davis, killed it. Davis socked 33 long balls and drive in 85 while scoring 75 times. I knew the power would eventually come out.

King Felix dominated.
Ricky Romero was atrocious.
Josh Beckett was as blah as blah gets.
Brandon Morrow was great but missed two months with injury.
Wandy Rodriguez was league average across the board.
Ricky Nolasco was worse than Wandy.
Scott Baker blew his arm out.

Sergio Santos blew his arm out.
Frank Francisco was awful (5.53 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 23 SVs).
David Robertson was the closer for about 10 days before he was injured (I spent 35% of my FAAB budget to add him for that 10 day run. What luck, right?).
Sergio Romo was nails as always (1.79 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 14 SVs).

CONGRATS:  Joe Hamrahi of Baseball Prospectus.

FINAL RESULT: 11/12. This is the most embarrassed I think I have ever been at a club. My pitching was abysmal. Because I realized with a third of the year left that I have no shot at doing anything in the saves or ratio categories I tanked the ratios and gave up on relievers in an attempt to try and rack up strikeouts and wins. Even that didn’t help. On offense, I was 13 RBIs from three more points, seven homers from two more points and two steals from another point. It’s always close as I’ve been saying.

By Ray Flowers

Review: FSTA League

I stand accountable. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. First up, the FSTA Experts League.

To review my team click on this link: Vegas, BaseballGuys FSTA Team

And if you want to see the results of the draft, click on the FSTA DRAFT link.

A note. This draft was held in January. That created a lot of issues, chief amongst them the fact that Ryan Braun was thought to be suspended for 50 games at the time of the draft (he went in the 4th round to Chris Liss). There was also the little issue of bullpens simply not being setup at the time of the draft (the draft is so early to help people prepare for the season, but in holding it so early there are a ton of issues that crop up).

To my team.

Yadier Molina and Ryan Doumit were rockstars at catcher. Tremendous duo in a 2-catcher league. Better than anyone else’s.

First base was my downfall. Carlos Pena had his worse full season (he hit flipping .197 with 19 homers and 61 RBIs. He had gone deep at least 28 times with 80 RBIs each of the previous five seasons) and Derrek Lee never played (remember, the draft was in January).

Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips weren’t great, but they were certainly solid at second and middle infield.

Evan Longoria, my first round pick, missed half the season. Last year I won the league with Carl Crawford as my first round pick. I couldn’t pull off the trick again with my first round pick crapping out. My two late grabs to help out at the hot corner, Mat Gamel and Ian Stewart, were just awful.

Yunel Escobar was very solid three of the last four years. Oops. Make if three of five years now as he was awful in 2012 as he hit .253 with 51 RBIs and 58 runs scored. He’s a career .282 hitter.

Matt Holliday did what he always does – produce. Michael Bourn slowed late in the year, but he was still at borderline top-50 performer overall. Shane Victorino, like so many others on this squad, had his worst effort (.255-11-55-72-39). Martin Prado qualified in the infield and outfield and was a dynamic 4th OF with a .301-10-70-81-17. That’s a great season. I was once again bit by the early draft. I added Chris Heisey as my 5th outfielder as he appeared to have a shot to hit 25+ homers in a full-time role with the Reds. Literally days later the Reds signed Ryan Ludwick. We know how that turned out. Matt Joyce started strong but was hurt and ultimately faded in the second half. Oh, and that Franklin Gutierrez — always hurt.

The pitching…

Ricky Romero. I don’t need to say anything there other than just list his name. You know what I mean. C.J. Wilson started out fantastically before an elbow injured killed him in the second half (he’ll need surgery). Brandon Morrow was off to a dominating pace but was felled by an oblique issue. Wandy Rodriguez was, Wandy Rodriguez. Sergio Santos below his arm out. Scott Baker blew his arm out. Tim Stauffer didn’t blow his arm out, but he threw all of five innings on the year. Chris Perez was aces. Roy Oswalt was awful (remember, this draft was in January and we all thought he was going to be pitching in the first week of the season). Tyler Clippard was fantastic. Javy Guerra ended the year with a whimper, and Brandon Lyon never did close all year. Not that it would have mattered with the Astros.

CONGRATS: Steve Gardner/Howard Kamen who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 11/13 teams. I failed miserably to repeat as the league champion that I was in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: Augus16, 2012

Each week on Thursday’s I’ll be answering fantasy baseball questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Drop Carlos Santana for Salvador Perez, Ryan Doumit, Willin Rosario, or Jonathan Lucroy?
– @Krisr0ck27

First off, everyone needs to make sure they do a two catcher league next season. This is especially so in the the myriad of 10 team leagues that I receive questions about every day. If you can literally go to the waiver-wire an add any of those last four names, you should be ashamed at the lack of depth in your league. Lucroy is hitting .324 on the year. Rosario is tied with Buster Posey for the NL lead in homers (19) for catcher. Doumit has been a top-10 catcher this year (.294-14-59). Perez has hit .298 with eight bombs in a mere 39 games.

When the season started I would have said to go with Santana. Over the past four weeks only one catcher on this list has outperformed him (Doumit who has hit .311-7-17) as Santana has hit .270 with six homers and 19 RBIs. Santana has also hit seven bombs with 23 RBIs, a .410 OBP, a .542 SLG and .953 OPS since the All-Star break. You can move to Doumit if you need a bit of an average boost, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with holding on to, and riding, Santana.

First in all offensive categories, close to last in pitching categories. Is it worth giving Carlos Gonzalez for Matt Cain for the home stretch?
– @stealyurbase

It’s certainly the time of year in rotisserie that you have to play the categories. That means making deals that sometimes may not make total sense off the top. Would I ever draft Matt Cain ahead of Carlos Gonzalez? Are you on dope? Would never happen. But we’re 4.5 months into a six month season, so if your team needs pitching help this is certainly something to consider.

Cain continues to marvel with his consistency. Last year he had a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. This year he has a 2.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Moreover, since the start of the 2009 season, a span of 122 starts, Cain has a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. All he does is take the ball every five games and give the Giants a chance to win. Period. My only hesitation here is that Cain has been a bit below his normal standards over his last seven starts as he’s been saddled with a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, not awful numbers, but he’s not exactly trending in the right direction.

The deal isn’t a world beater by any means but it’s also solid given your needs.

I’ve been offered Hunter Pence for my Alex Gordon in a 12 team, H2H league. Seems like a good buy low but a lil worried.
– @NotoriousBox

I understand the concern, Pence is hitting a mere .177 with the Giants, but let’s compare these two guys efforts to one another.

Pence has doubled Gordon in homers, 18 to nine.
Pence has 24 more RBIs – 70 to 46.
Pence has scored one fewer run (66 to 67) and stolen two fewer bases (five to seven).

The only category in the fantasy game that really favors Gordon is batting average (.293 to .259). What about that average? Pence has a career .288 mark. Gordon’s career mark is .267. Pence also has hit at least .282 each of the past four years. Yes Pence is hitting .183 over his last 30 games and Gordon is hitting .341, and that’s a mind boggling difference. Still, I assume we can agree that neither player is likely to continue their pace since the All-Star break, right?

I’d take a shot on Pence. He’s got too much history on his side not to think he could still make a run to .280 this season, and he clearly has displayed a significant power advantage over Gordon this season.

Give up Curtis Granderson for Andre Ethier and Adam Wainwright? Could use a starting pitcher.
– @LKrukowski

Granderson has 30 bombs, 68 RBIs and 79 runs scored putting on pace for another excellent season. Of course there are some among you who are disappointed with that effort as he hit 41 homers with 119 RBIs and 136 runs scored last season. He was never going to repeat those numbers. He’s also continued his bizarre trend of alternating impressive an average steals totals from season to season (26, 12, 20, 12, 25 and eight this year). His batting average has also dipped to .235 an it’s looking like this will be his third sub .250 effort in four seasons.

Ethier will certainly give you a nice batting average boost. A career .291 hitter, he’s batting .288 this season after back-to-back efforts of .292. He’s nowhere near the run producer that Granderson is though as he’s hit only 22 homers over his last 241 games. Furthermore, after a torrid start to the year that included 44 RBIs in 50 games he’s driven in a mere 12 runners over his last 31 contests. On the hill  is Wainwright, and he is surging. Over his last seven starts he has a 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, nearly a K per inning (44 in 48.2 frames) and he’s walked only eight batters. It took a while for him to find his footing, but over the past two months he has looked as good as he ever has.

If you need starting pitching help I think this is a solid deal, especially since Ethier should help to smooth out the ding that Granderson put into your batting average. Let’s just hope that the Cardinals don’t shut down Wainwright early to protect his arm. After all, he didn’t throw a big league pitch last year.

In tight battle for 1st on a 15 team league. Worried about Dan Haren rest of year. Time to cut bait or hang tight?
– @99hokie

Haren clearly isn’t 100 percent because of that back. As a result of the physical woes his performance has been up and down. A prime example. After allowing a total of four runs in three starts he permitted five earned over 3.1 innings in his last outing. That still gives him a 3.80 ERA over his last four starts, nearly a run below his 4.68 mark for the season. If we pull back a bit further he still has a solid 3.00 K/BB ratio on the year. His GB/FB ratio of 1.00 is right on par with his mark the last two years. He is surrendering more homers than every before (1.44 per nine versus 1.04 for his career) and that number could normalize a bit. He’s also dealing with a .283 batting average against, and only once since 2005 has that number been over .260 so it’s possible that he could be a wee bit stingier with the base knocks the rest of the way.

Admittedly there is no way to know exactly where Haren’s body is at, but I’d still profess faith in his ability to get batters out. You can’t expect the 3.17 ERA, 1.02 WHIP guy from last season, but he should still be an above average option on the bump, especially in a 15 team league (the folks over at Fleaflicker seem to agree).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Around the Horn: August7, 2012

(1) Ben Revere has a 20 game hitting streak. Stealing bases like crazy.

(2) Justin Morneau – is he back to being a force?

(3) Ryan Doumit getting it done at the plate.

(4) Eric Young Jr., stolen base demon. Could playing time follow?

(5) Mike Trout = amazing. What else can I say?

(6) Buster Posey best hitter on planet?

(7) Ben Sheets thinks it’s 2007. Over at Fleaflicker though, people are still wary.

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Bizzaro World of Catchers

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray take a look at the catcher position so far this year. They take a look at those who have far exceeded their draft day expectations and those catchers that have not lived up to the hype.

A.J. Pierzynski, Ryan Doumit, Willin Rosario, Buster Posey, Mike Napoli, Yadier Molina, Carlos Ruiz

Listen to the Audio.

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part II

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. For a breakdown of who is in the league and how everything shakes out, not to mention who I drafted in rounds 1-14 see K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I.

In what follows I’ll list my thoughts about my selections from pick 15-28. I’ll then give a quick run down of my squad.

Round 15: Dexter Fowler
He gained some muscle this offseason, and he flat out exploded in the second half of the season: .288 with a .880 OPS, 51 runs, 10 steals in 68 games.

Round 16: Wandy Rodriguez
This is a solid skill set hurler who gets no love because he’s on the Astros. As a 5th starter on my team he’s slotted in the right spot.

Round 17: Kurt Suzuki
I wanted to wait another go round for a backstop, I’d prefer to take a closer here, but I just didn’t have much faith in the remaining backstops.

Round 18: Frank Francisco
Great arm will be given an opportunity to close with Mets. Could have gone OF here, but I really needed to get that second closer arm.

Round 19: Brennan Boesch
It was Boesch, Joyce or Vernon Wells for my 5th outfielder. Couldn’t see any of them being around the next time I made a pick.

Round 20: Vernon Wells
Well color me surprised. Wells was indeed available after I considered taking him in the last round. He makes a solid UT option this late.

Round 21: Ryan Doumit
Of all the remaining backstops Doumit is the one I can see going .275-15-70 if he can stay healthy. Per 450 at-bats in his career: .271-15-61-54-2.

Round 22: Scott Baker
I’ve been staring at Baker for two rounds now. If healthy, there’s little reason to think he won’t be a top-50 hurler at worst, so this is good value this late.

Round 23: Rafael Furcal
I wanted to go with another starting pitcher here, but I looked at the remaining options for my backup at short and Furcal appeared to be well ahead of the remaining options.

Round 24: Ricky Nolasco
Once more into the breach… one of these years it’s going to happen. I’m convinced. I feel like Ahab from Moby Dick chasing my White Whale.

Round 25: Daniel Murphy
To get a guy who could hit .300 while qualifying at first, second and third… sign me up. Big fan of a reserve pick who covers so many positions.

Round 26: Chris Davis
It’s like when you walk into a car dealership intending to buy a sedan and walk out with a sports car. The lure of Davis and his power is too strong for me to break.

Round 27: Sergio Romo
(1) I could use solid ratios with a shot at a few saves. (2) With a short bench of only five guys I felt I needed a hurler over another bat.

Round 28: David Robertson
Went with this great bullpen arm instead of starters Homer Bailey, Aaron Harang, A.J. Burnett and Ryan Vogelsong, Obviously there will be plenty of arms left on the waiver-wire.

My Squad.

C: Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Doumit
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Kevin Youkilis
SS: Derek Jeter
MI: Dustin Ackley
CI: Mark Reynolds
OF: Matt Holliday, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino, Dexter Fowler, Brennan Boesch
UT: Vernon Wells

Pitchers: Felix Hernandez, Ricky Romero, Josh Beckett, Brandon Morrow, Wandy Rodriguez, Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco, Sergio Santos, Frank Francisco

Bench: Rafael Furcal, Daniel Murphy, Chris Davis, Sergio Romo, David Robertson

I’ve got a lot of flexibility with the club as Cabrera, Kendrick, Reynolds, Davis and Murphy are all going to be multi position guys. I could be a bit light on steals, but I should still finish middle of the pack there. I like the late add of Daniel Murphy to help offset a guy like Reynolds in the batting average category. On the hill, I think I again showed that you can wait on hurlers and still assemble a strong staff. My top-5 arms could all give me 175 Ks, and Baker/Nolasco could both be near elite if healthy and lucky (that obviously has not been the case the past few years though). I might be light on saves but with this draft happening so early in the year, before training camp even started, I didn’t feel the need to reach on bullpen arms when so many situations are still unsettled.

I’ll keep you posted throughout the year on how the club is doing.

Finally, here is my roster, along with all the others from the K-BAD Draft.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ryan Doumit

On Friday last week Ryan Doumit picked his home for the 2012 season, and it will be in Minnesota with the Twins. While the deal seems to be a solid signing for the Twins, one year and $3 million (it also includes performance bonus’), what does this mean for the future of Joe Mauer behind the plate? Moreover, is this a signal that the team isn’t sold on Justin Morneau ever returning to All-Star levels? Does this signing signal the end of Jason Kubel’s tenure with the club (he was offered arbitration)? Those are all questions to ponder for another day as today I’m going to focus on Mr. Doumit.

A passable defensive catcher, Doumit is more prized for his bat. In fact, his best position certainly isn’t behind the dish, it’s probably as a hitter at it. Doumit appeared in 60 games as a catcher in 2011, and he’ll certainly see some time there in 2012. He’ll also likely play some first base, a spot he covered three times last year, and potentially the outfield (he appeared in right field in 18 games in 2010). Doumit will also have the advantage of being able to fill the DH role, and perhaps that will enable him to reach a career best in games played (currently 124 games). And that brings up major sticking point with Doumit – he’s always seemingly hurt. Just look at his games played totals the past seven years: 75, 61, 83, 116, 75, 124 and 77. That’s an average of 87 games a season. Given his constant battles to stay on the field, a move to the AL where he can DH seems like an ideal fit.

Doumit has had so many starts and stops from year to year that it’s often forgotten that he’s a darn good hitter, especially so for a player who qualifies at catcher. I’m gonna lay out the average, OBP and SLG of a handful of players. See if you can guess which one belongs to Doumit.

.273/.374/.474
.271/.334/.442
.271/.338/.451
.262/.328/.415

I know you’ll never guess, so I’ll just let you know who the lines belong to: Jorge Posada, Ryan Doumit, Miguel Montero and Matt Wieters.

That’s right, Doumit’s career slash line numbers fit right in with that mix of catchers. Shocked? How about this. Per 450 at-bats, a total Doumit should reach in 2012 if he can stay healthy, the average Doumit season has produced a 5×5 line of .271-15-61-54-2. Those aren’t great numbers, but how many catchers reached all five numbers in 2011? The answer is two: Alex Avila and Mike Napoli. If we remove the steals and just ask how many went .271-15-61-54 the group only grows by one more (Miguel Montero).

Remember, the 5×5 numbers I just mentioned are for Doumit’s entire career based on a 450 at-bat season. Will he reach that at-bat total in 2012? A lot of that certainly depends on his health, and we are talking about a guy who has only two 100 games seasons in his career. I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention that Doumit has never, not one time, had 450 at-bats in a season (his career high is 431). Therefore, it’s clear that there is a lot of guesswork going on here. Still, when others reach for a catcher early in your draft it might be wise to sit back, wait a while, and take a chance on the newest Twins’ backstop as he could end up being quite the draft day pickup if he can stay in the lineup.

By Ray Flowers

You Gotsta Know

How good has Antonio Bastardo been this season for the Phillies? Amongst NL relievers he is first in batting average against allowing a mere .119 average. He’s also 8th in K/9 at 10.93 while his 1.99 ERA is 10th. Amazingly, he’s been even better of late with the strikeout ball. Over his last 7.2 innings he’s posted 15 Ks leading to an unheard of 17.60 K/9 mark in that time.

Emilio Bonifacio leads the NL with 31 hits since August 23rd. Yes, I’m just as shocked as you are. Emilio also leads the NL with 40 infield hits, just three behind the major league leader Juan Pierre (43). The good news continues with Bonifacio as he leads NL leadoff batters, minimum 50 games in the leadoff spot, with a  .381 OBP. He’s also third at the spot in batting average at .306, behind only Starlin Castro (.333) and Jose Reyes (.330). I know, totally out of nowhere has been this effort, and as a result, everyone who took a stab at him off waivers in mixed leagues ended up with one hell of a player.

Ryan Doumit and the Pirates face the Dodgers for the next four games. This year Doumit has hit .583 against the Dodgers (7-for-12) and in 33 games in his career against the club he is batting a resounding .358 with 22 RBI in 33 games. Doumit is also locked in right now. He’s picked up 15 hits in his last 33 at-bats that has led to a .455 average and .1,258 OPS in the month of September. What are you waiting for? Grab him if he is on waivers right now.

Danny Espinosa has hit a poor .231 this year helping to drain his value. Still, the second sacker has scored 64 times, knocked in 60 runs, and stolen 14 bases. He’s also hit 19 long balls. While that last number doesn’t jump out at all, it’s a borderline historic number actually. I know it’s hard to believe, but only two second basemen in the history of baseball have hit 20 homers in their first season. The only two second baseman to have hit 20 in their inaugural campaigns are Alexi Ramirez (21 in 2008) and Dan Uggla (27 in 2006).

Justin Turner of the Mets is batting .385 in September (15-for-39), the 7th best mark in the NL. Just another hot name to ride if you’re desperate. By the way his teammate, Jason Bay, is hitting .340 in that time, 15th best in the NL. He returned to action last night after missing a game with a sore shoulder.

Looking for an arm to considering streaming? Take a gander at the Cubs’ Randy Wells. Yes he’s an uninspiring option on the surface, but that doesn’t mean that he isn’t pitching well right now. In fact, over his last eight starts he’s 5-0 with a 3.02 ERA. The only other pitchers with at least eight starts, five wins and no loses since August began are the soon to be AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander (8-0) and the Yankees’ Ivan Nova (6-0). I wouldn’t lead you wrong would I?

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD 2011: PART III

In Part III of my review of the K-BAD experts draft at KFFL, I’ll wrap things up by breaking down my final eight selections and then giving a quick review of the squad I assembled. Here are some links that are pertinent to the piece as well.

K-BAD HOMEPAGE

PART I – Selections 1-10
PART II - Selections 11-20.

* Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

Round 21-8: Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs
s a 5th outfielder, as long as he is healthy, Soriano should be fine. Looking at the available options, I just didn’t see many who could hit 25 homers while scoring/knocking in 90.

Round 22-5: Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox
I almost pulled the trigger on Floyd in the 20th round, so I pretty much had to take him in the 22nd. People always seem to neglect Floyd who has been stable, and pretty darn good the past two years.

Round 23-8: Brandon League, RP, Mariners
I’m not at all convinced that David Aardsma will be healthy and/or effective (he’s likely to miss the start of the year coming back from hip surgery). I wrote about this situation in A Hip that Makes You Hop.

Round 24-5: Ryan Doumit, C, Pirates
Honestly, this is a total shot in the dark. He’s the only catcher left on the board who I think could go .270-15-60, though he’ll need a trade to get anywhere close to that. He could be the first player I dump.

Round 25-8: James Loney, 1B, Dodgers
Boring, but I needed a corner infield option, and I certainly didn’t want to take Chipper Jones. Loney has little upside, but he does have 268 RBI the last three years which is, shockingly, seven more than Paul Konerko.

Round 26-5: Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
I wanted to bolster my pitching staff, but there are a handful of starters and relievers still available who I could go with, so I backed up my weakest hitting position by adding this speedster (my other SS is Jason Bartlett).

Round 27-8: Ryan Madson, RP, Phillies
Best pitcher, skill wise, left amongst relievers. Still, I gave heavy consideration to Jake McGee who could close for Rays and Clay Hensley as a handcuff to my ealier selection of Leo Nunez.

Round 28-5: Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres
I wanted to add depth in the outfield with my last pick and also gave a thought to calling out Roger Bernadina, Alex Gordon or David DeJesus (though DD was taken the pick before me).

REPORT CARD

* This team has lots of speed. Pierre should push 50 steals, Upton should get 40, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see McCutchen go for at least 30. I’m also expecting 15 from guys like Utley, Braun, Bartlett and Zobrist. Barring injury, I should win this category.

* My average might be lacking a bit since I took Dunn and Reynolds. Still, they are about as powerful a 1B/3B combo as anyone could hope to have. Yadier Molina usually has a decent average versus other catchers, and Utley, Braun and Kendrick should hit .300 to keep me respectable here – I hope.

* The power of this club is strong. I should get at least 70 bombs from Dunn and Reynolds, and if I don’t get at least 60 from Braun and Utley I’d be surprised. Zobrist, Lee, Upton, McCutchen and Soriano should all also hit 20.

* On the hill, saves are a bit of a question. Soria is a star as my anchor, and Hanrahan was named the Pirates’ closer two days after I drafted him which certainly helps. If Nunez can hold on to his strikeout and ground ball gains from last season, I could have three solid closers. I also expect League to start off as the closer with Aardsma coming back from injury, and Madson is just one pitch away from an injury to Brad Lidge to being called on in the 9th inning for the Phillies.  Maybe this unit isn’t a bad as I thought.

* At the top Sabathia and Hanson are a dynamic 1-2 punch, and I’ll take Billingsley as a #3 in any league. If things come together for Nolasco he will be the best 4th SP in the league, and guys like Baker and Floyd give me a strong top-6. Still, I do regret going against my normal tradition of waiting on pitching. Even though I took two SPs in the first seven rounds I’m not convinced that my team is appreciably better than it would have been if I had waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler.

Every team has a weakness, but overall I really like the way this draft played out. I picked up a bunch of the players that I targeted, so if everyone stays healthy I should be in line for another top-3 finish… but there is a whole of baseball that has to be played before we’ll know for sure how I did.

By Ray Flowers