Hot Stove: December 8, 2010

Lance Berkman – Early reports had him playing left field with Matt Holliday shifting to right field. Looks like that isn’t going to be happening. This is good news for Matt Holiday who has never played right field. It’s bad news for Berkman and the Cardinals’ pitching staff. Berkman has been a first basemen the past few years, hasn’t played in the outfield since 2007, and really hasn’t been a full-time outfielder since 2004. He better hit, a lot, because he’ll likely be a butcher in the field.

Jack Cust – Signed a 1-year deal for $2.5 million to join the Mariners. This is an example of a good and bad signing. First, the good. Cust joins a club that needs offense as the Mariners were last in the majors in runs, homers, OBP and OPS. It’s also a completely reasonable contract. The bad? They already have Milton Bradley set to DH and he is set to make $12 million dollars this year. How awful does that contract with Bradley look? About as awful as it did when it was signed – he was never going to be able to live up to that 3-year, $30 million deal that ends after this season.

DH Types – Manny Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero and Jim Thome are all in the market for an AL team looking for a designated hitter. All three still have value, and all three could legitimately hit 25 homers in 2011. At the same time all three are aging, and it’s pretty clear at this point that none of the three really belongs in the field at all. Teams in need of a bat would be advised to apply here though as these three old timers can still slug it (here are their OPS marks from 2010: Guerrero .841, Manny .870 and Thome at 1.039).

Matt Diaz – Signed a two year deal to join the Pirates (it is rumored to be for about $4.25 million). Diaz crushed lefties, always has, and his career splits are pretty pronounced.

vs. lefties: .335/.373/.533, one HR per 25.3 ABs
vs. nighties: .269/.327/.382, one HR per 54.9 ABs

Remember that if you plan on drafting him this season.

As a result of the deal, the Pirates are considering moving Ryan Doumit. They already have Chris Snyder to catch, and the original plan was for Doumit to play the outfield most of the time. Doumit is also scheduled to make $5.1 this year with club options for 2012 ($7.25 million) and 2013 ($8.25 million). It seems odd to me that the Pirates would want to get rid of a guy who could serve as their backup catcher and potential platoon mate with Diaz to form a nice combo in the outfield. I know the Pirates aren’t going to pay the guy over $15 million for 2012-13, but why not keep him for now?

Jeff Francoeur – Here is where major league teams could learn something from us “stat geeks” in the fantasy game. Simply put, Francoeur does not have an approach at the plate that will allow him to have long-term success at the dish, and all you have to do is to look at his career numbers. Apparently no one in Kansas City can operate a spreadsheet though, so the Royals went out and gave Francoeur a $2.5 million deal for 2011 with a $3 million mutual option for 2012. So let me get this straight. The Giants got Pat Burrell for one year and $1 million, and the Royals gave that amount of money to Frenchie? Burrell had a “down” 2010, but he still produced a .348 OBP and a .469 SLG. Francoeur has never posted an OBP of better than .338, and he has never posted a SLG of .450 in a season of more than 275 plate appearances. Simply put, Francoeur stinks. Of course, we are talking about the Royals who have brought in similar hitters the past few years in guys like Jose Guillen and Mike Jacobs. It’s no wonder this team never wins.

Doing it Right: The White Sox

The White Sox singed Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $56 million deal to serve as their designated hitter. That move looked even better when they were able to secure the services of Paul Konerko on a three year, $37.5 million deal (Konerko helped out the club as well by taking $30.5 million the next three years with $1 million dollars a year from 2014-2020 in deferred payments). So for $26 million in 2011 the White Sox should get themselves about 80 homers, 200 RBI and 180 runs. Would you rather get that or 15 wins, 220 innings and Cliff Lee for the same price? Seems like an obvious call to me. Furthermore, think about this:

The White Sox, if you add up the contracts of Dunn and Konerko, gave two deals that amount to 7-years and $93.5 million. Would you rather have Dunn AND Konerko at that rate or Jayson Werth and his 7-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals? Uh, yeah. Great move Nationals.

By Ray Flowers

What a Great Monday

Normally on Monday I spend most of the day going over what just occurred on the football field on Sunday. I like football, but everyone knows my passion is baseball. To that end this was no mere Monday of twiddling my thumbs as it was the first day of the Winter Meetings, and with it a torrent of rumors were flying about all day about the men on the diamond (for updates on all that is baseball – including potential player movement – check in with the BaseballGuys Twitter Page). Here are some of my thoughts on the highlights of the day.

Either the Mets or Yankees have seemingly been involved in every rumor, though as of this writing the only official move either team has made is the Yankees decision to trade Brian Bruney to the Nationals for a player to be named later (you’ll be able to read my thoughts on the deal at Fanball.com on Tuesday, so look for the piece then)

The Denver Post is reporting that the Rockies have offered a multi-year deal to infielder Clint Barmes (they also offered long-term deals to Chris Iannetta and Huston Street). I guess the Rockies didn’t read my review of Barmes in a recent Five Questions piece.

Ryan Doumit has had his name in the news of late as a handful of teams are interested in trading for the catcher. Given that he is owned about $8.5 million the next two years it’s no surprise that team’s are interested in acquiring his services giving his ability to be a difference maker on offense.

Edwin Jackson continues to have his name bandied about as a potential mover at the meetings. By the time you read this he might already be on the move. The latest rumor has both the D’backs and the Mariners as his most ardent pursuers. You can my thoughts about the hurler in Breaking Down: Edwin Jackson.

This is one rumor that I haven’t seen floated, but it makes total sense to me. The Giants, in desperate need of some pop, could target Adam LaRoche who wasn’t offered arbitration by the Braves making him a free agent. LaRoche would be able to provide his 25-HR pop while playing strong defense at first which would allow Pablo Sandoval to shift back to third base, the clubs desired location for him. LaRoche could likely be had at a reasonable price, and he likely wouldn’t have much problem lofting balls into SF Bay – do you think?

Reports suggest that Rafael Soriano might accept the Braves offer of arbitration. First, I think this is complete malarkey. Why would Soriano want to go to arbitration and sign a one year deal with his history of arm troubles? He’d be wise to sign a multi-year deal. Personally, I think this is just a negotiating ploy to scare teams into offering him more money. Second, the Braves would be extremely unhappy if Soriano accepted arbitration because (1) they wouldn’t receive draft picks to replace those they lost when they signed Billy Wager and (2) they didn’t give Wagner $7 million to split the ninth inning with Soriano. For more on Wagner give Breaking Down: Billy Wagner a read.

In closing, I’d like to invite everyone to join my Twitter following (you can access it above). While I resisted the whole Twitter phenomena for a while, I’m now posting a plenty. However, this immediate gratification cycle we are all living on now has led to some problems in accuracy. As an example, Edwin Jackson was traded to the Mets midday on Monday, that is until the reports came out that the original report had no basis in reality. Technology is fantastic, and who doesn’t want to know about your teams latest move a minute after it’s done, but the environment today is one in which everyone is pushing to break the stories, and as such there are occasions when inaccurate information is promulgated across the web (a shock I know). Don’t believe everything you read the minute you read it, and in fact, you might take up the old adage of needing two sources before blindly accepting any reported deal. Either that or just grab on to a source you trust like BaseballGuys for your baseball information.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Catchers

To be truthful, and everyone knows I’m nothing if not honest, I went to the bathroom today and grabbed the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide for a quick read. As I perused the magazine I started looking at my top-10 selections at each position and thought – I bet their would be some value to reviewing how accurate my predictions were last season. With that, I thought I would plow through each position on the diamond over the next while doing just that. Today, I’ll start with the catchers, and look for the other reviews soon as I move through each position.

* Note: These projections were rendered in January of 2009, so keep that in mind if some of them seem a bit off in retrospect.

1. Joe Mauer
2. Brian McCann
3. Russell Martin
4. Geovany Soto
5. Victor Martinez
6. Bengie Molina
7. Ryan Doumit
8. Kelly Shoppach
9. Chris Iannetta
10. Mike Napoli

Now you know why I suggest skipping on taking catchers early in a draft.

Of that group, I was dead on with the top-2, of course that wasn’t too hard to predict. After that, it got spotty in a hurry.

Martin really wasn’t as bad as he appeared to be even though he had full season lows in homers (seven), RBI (53), runs (63) and average (.250). Honestly he wasn’t, he was just really unlucky. I’m looking for a nice rebound effort in 2010 – he should come cheaper than he should.

Soto was a total flop, due to injury and the fact that he simply wasn’t as good as he appeared to be in 2008. Simple really.

V-Mart was a remarkable comeback story after an abysmal 2008 effort (.278-2-35 in 266 ABs). All he did was rebound to his established levels hitting .303-23-108, but it was still a wonderful season thanks to full health.

Molina continues to do his thing, and do it well despite being the slowest man on Earth. He was basically the Giants second best hitter behind Pablo Sandoval as he hit a career best 20 homers while knocking in at least 80-runs for the third time in three years in a Giants uniform.

Doumit was injured and never really able to get going last season. He isn’t the .318-15-69 hitter he was in ’08, but he also isn’t the bum that hit only .250-10-38 last year.

Shoppach was supposed to flourish behind the dish when the Tribe eventually traded V-Mart. Well they traded Martinez all right, but Shoppach wasn’t able to take advantage of anything as he fell to 12 homers and 40 RBI a year after hitting 21 long balls with 55 ribbies. He did lose 81 at-bats in 2009, and that certainly didn’t help. Neither did his .214 average.

Iannetta hit only .228, this after hitting .264 in 2008, and he also lost two homers and 13 RBI from his 2008 effort (18 HR, 65 RBI). Chris was given 44 fewer at-bats thanks to a late season surge at the dish by Yorvit Torrealba so the power numbers would have likely been right there if he had been given the same opportunity.

Napoli wasn’t at his best either. First off, Jeff Mathis continued to eat into his playing time. Secondly, was limited a but by injury, though he still was able to post 155 more at-bats than in 2008. As a result there was little difference in his homers (20 and 20) or RBI (49 and 56), but obviously the rate at which he produced them dipped a ton.

So there is my list at the catcher position. I know it doesn’t look great in retrospect, but then again, I always preface my rankings at this position saying that there is no accounting for the injuries and wear and tear on the body for the men who pull on the tools of ignorance.

By Ray Flowers

Walking the Line

Want to learn how to ingratiate yourself to your fan base? If you do, then I suggest you follow the lead of the Cubs’ Milton Bradley who, amazingly, offered this little diddy to the press. “All I’m saying is I just pray the game is nine innings, so I can be out there the least amount of time as possible and go home,” he said. Apparently, he isn’t feeling the love from the Cubs faithful. “I’m talking about when I go to eat at a restaurant, I have to listen to the waiters bad-mouthing me at another table, sitting in a restaurant…” Well Milton, try keeping your mouth shut and hit better than .255 while you are making $10 million a year and people might cut you a break. Memo to Cubs’ fans – don’t boo Bradley, boo your idiotic front office that gave him $30 million.

Carlos Gonzalez returned from his losing battle with a steak knife to play on Thursday. Unfortunately he then went out and suffered a bruised thumb in the game and is now being called day-to-day like the rest of us. Honestly, I injured my left pinkie while typing this piece so I’m hour-to-hour.

Adam Jones continues to be sidelined with a back injury. He is supposed to return by the weekend, though with his recent struggles (.222 in his last 21 games) the team should give him all the time he needs to make sure he is healthy.

Jake Peavy will make another minor league start for Triple-A Charlotte on Saturday. If his ankle, and elbow, are fine after that appearance, he will likely be activated with his next start being for the Pale Sox next week.

Mike Sheets offered his take on his top-10 catchers for 2010 in his most recent posting. I can’t disagree with his top-3, those guys are money, but his list got me to thinking about just how thin the catchers’ pool has gotten of late. Just look at the names that Sheets listed 4-10.

Mike Napoli – A 30 percent strikeout rate is awful, limiting his AVG upside (his current .289 mark is a mirage).

Jorge Posada – Thirty-eight years old, he is hitting .277 with 17 homers but he has been limited to just 478 ABs the past two years.

Ryan Doumit – Hitting .225 this season, Doumit does have 23 homer sand 95 RBI his last 613 ABs while his average in that time is .290. If he could just stay healthy.

Bengie Molina – Figures to stay in SF and hold off Buster Posey for at least one more year and he has hit at least 15 homers with 57 RBI in each of the past five seasons.

Geovany Soto – Continues to worsen, if that is possible. After hitting .278 in May that number has slide each of the past three months: .257, .222 and .150.

Russell Martin – Is hitting just .257 with four home runs after hitting at least .280 with 10 in each of his first three seasons.

Matt Wieters – Jesus, I mean Wieters, is hitting .263 with a .677 OPS in his first 224 ABs. The upside is undeniable, but at the same time Wieters has been out-produced this season by Omir Santos who has hit .264-6-32 with a .693 OPS in 235 ABs. Ruminate on that for a while.

If you miss out on the top-3 you might as well wait a long while before taking the plunge as there will likely be a whole lot of mediocrity out there.

Michael Vick returns to NFL action later tonight. Count me as someone who could care less. I don’t wish people ill, but at the same time I wouldn’t be at all disappointed if Vick were to struggle monumentally for the rest of his career.

By Ray Flowers