2011 Pitching Review – Relievers

Relief pitching, by nature of the importance placed upon the role of closer (i.e. saves), is one of the hardest positions to predict with accuracy year after year. We always have guys come out of nowhere that no one even thought about selecting on draft day (Sergio Santos, Fernando Salas, Javy Guerra, Mark Melancon), and with relievers fantasy value tied so closely to a managers decision to use a certain hurler in the 9th inning, the position is a landmine that take a lot of careful navigating. How did I do in avoiding those explosive devices in 2011? Let’s see.

To see my 2011 rankings click on Top-50 Relief Pitchers.

HITS

Jonathan Axford (#6): It can be argued that he was the most effective closer in the NL as he racked up a league leading 46 saves (tied with Craig Kimbrel), while blowing only two save chances. Toss in a 1.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 86 Ks in 73.2 innings and you have yourself a dominating season.

Joel Hanrahan (#10): My crowning call of the position, Hanrahan had an ADP in the late 20′s or early 30′s when I wrote my initial piece. Every bit as effective as Axford, Hanrahan had 40 saves in 44 chances, posted career best ratios (1.83 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), held batters to a .221 average, and posted an impressive K/BB ratio of 3.82.

Jonny Venters (#36): He  was one of the 10 best relievers in baseball, though his fantasy worth wasn’t that high because he only had five saves. Still, he was amazingly effective with a 9.82 K/9, a 1.84 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and a stupendous, off the charts amazing, 5.29 GB/FB ratio.

Kenley Jansen (#39): How historic was his 2011 effort? Check out the details in Around the Horn: October 6th, 2011.

MISSES

Joakim Soria (#8): The Royals kept saying he was fine, but his performance dictated otherwise. Soria posted a three year low with an 8.95 K/9 mark, he gave up more line drive than ever before (21 percent), and for the first time had a bating average against above .220 (he finished at .259). He also saw his ERA rise by nearly two runs (4.03), posted the worst WHIP of his career (1.28) and had a four year low in saves (28).

Matt Thornton (#13): He had an epically bad first two weeks of the season, and while he recovered late in the year, the damage was done and he was never given another chance to pitch in the 9th inning. He  posted solid numbers (3.32 ERA, 9.50 K/9, 3.17 BB/9) but it was far below expectations.

Jonathan Broxton (#14): His arm just wasn’t right all year, and he eventually had to shut things down after multiple starts and stops. In the end he had seven saves in just 12.2 innings of work, needed elbow surgery to remove “loose bodies,” and now faces an uphill battle to return to significance in 2012.

Brad Lidge (#16): He was supposed to be healthy in late April, and the club didn’t trust Ryan Madson at all. Well, Lidge’s injury lingered leading to only 19.1 innings pitched (1.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 1.77 K/BB) while Madson excelled as a closer for the first time (32 saves in 34 chances).

Ryan Franklin (#20): I did something I never do here – I went with role over skills. What did it get you if you made the same mistake, something I ALWAYS preach against? How about one save, an 8.46 ERA, 1.84 WHIP over 27.2 innings of work.

Craig Kimbrel (#23): I wasn’t sure if he would close 100 percent of the time for the Braves which is why I had him so low on the list. Shame on me. I broke down how amazing he was in 2011 in Around the Horn: October 6th, 2011.

Alexei Ogando (#49): That’s right, how quickly things can change. At the time the original piece was written on March 10th, 2011, Ogando was still in the mix to possibly close for the Rangers (they were still contemplating using Neftali Feliz as a starter). We all know what happened as Ogando was inserted into the starting rotation and had a strong season  for the Rangers (13-8, 3.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).

By Ray Flowers

A Wacky Monday

photo © 2010 Brian Garrett | more info (via: Wylio)

There’s no rhythm or reason at all with my report today – I’m completely flying by the seat of my pants. That’s what happens when you are up late with a special lady. You just say forget it when it comes to your work and daydream about spending all your time with her.

Mitchell Boggs, the one-time closer for the Cardinals, appears likely to be demoted when the club brings Skip Schumaker back off the DL. Boggs has had a few rough spots this year no doubt, but his ratios are all still pretty darn good (3.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.69 K/9, 4.75 K/BB). Trust me, I get why the club would send Boggs to Triple-A while holding on to Ryan Franklin – he’s a vet with a ton of end of the game experience – but if this was purely a baseball decision how in the world would Franklin remain on the roster with a 9.20 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 3.07 K/9 and 1.00 K/BB over the younger, harder throwing, and more productive Boggs? Since we’re talking about the Cardinals’ bullpen, you saw that they’ve likely found their 9th inning man after Fernando Salas had a week for the ages with four saves and a win in five appearances, right? Beat that for fantasy value in a H2H setup. Through 20.2 innings he has 20 Ks, has only issued five free passes, and is sporting a 1.87 ERA. If you grabbed him off waivers you might have hit the jackpot after a month of trying to read the tea leaves in St. Louis.

Kevin Gregg has a loss, two blown saves and an ERA of nearly 8.50 over his last six outings. Meanwhile, Koji Uehara continues to hum along with vastly superior numbers including a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 10.35 K/9 and a 4.60 K/BB ratio. Honestly, it’s pretty shocking that the Orioles haven’t made the move to Koji. Perhaps they just aren’t convinced that he can pitch on back-to-back days, but at this point I’m finding it nearly impossible to work up an argument that would favor Gregg working the ninth over Uehara.

Adam LaRoche is likely to be placed on the DL because of his injured shoulder. He can’t drive the ball a lick, his current SLG is .258, and he just isn’t right. If the club follows through with their plan that would put Mike Morse back into a prominent role since he would likely see most of the starts at first. Morse was everyone’s darling after a massive spring, but he failed to capitalize on his chance early in the year. He’s still only gone deep twice and scored five runs, horrible marks, but he does have 12 hits in his last 30 at-bats (.400) so he might be worth an add as a corner infield option for those of you looking for a bat.

Joe Mauer hopes to return to play in an extended spring training game on Tuesday. He’ll likely play in a few of those games before heading out on a minor league rehab assignment. There is no set date for a return, but 10-14 days seems reasonable at this point. We all knew he would be out two months, right? In case you forgot he was last seen on a big league diamond on April 12th.

Jered Weaver was 6-0 with a 0.99 ERA in April. May has completely flipped his performance on its ear as he is 0-4 with a 5.25 ERA. Here is a wonderful diddy from Elias. Weaver is the first pitcher since 1884 to win his first six decisions and then lose his next four. The last guy to do it was Jumbo McGinnis for the St. Louis Browns of the American Association. In case you were wondering, Jumbo posted a 2.95 ERA on his way to winning 102 games in his career.

Finally, if you’re sending in any questions, let me know which superhero movie you are mostly looking forward to this year:

Captain America
Green Lantern
Thor
X-Men: First Class

Mailbag: April 26, 2011

photo © 2010 Phil Roeder | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Hanley Ramirez got traded straight up for Starlin Castro. This is vetoable correct?
– @Dorman06

I hate vetoing deals. The reason is that sometimes a team would benefit from picking up a “lesser” player in a deal. If you need steals maybe it makes sense to trade Justin Upton for Michael Bourn, even if straight up the players aren’t equal. However, deals are never done in a vacuum, so unless the deal is horrifically one-sided the best course of action is usually to just let people stupidly make bad decisions and live with them. Actually, the best course of action to avoid this issue is simply to not allow trades. That way there is no funny business going on, but most people find such leagues to be boring.

In terms of this deal, I’m going to completely reverse course. This is one of those deals that simply must be vetoed. Wind back the clock four weeks. Hanley Ramirez didn’t fall out of the top-5 in any draft, no matter what the format and Castro was lucky if he was being taken in the top-100. In each of the last four seasons Hanley has been one of the top-10 fantasy performers in the game who has averaged a 5×5 line of .319-27-83-111-36. Those numbers are Hanley’s “average” effort the past four years. Even if Castro were to maintain his current pace (.357-1-11-16-3) over 150 games this season he would end up with a 5×5 line of .357-7-75-109-20. Castro will never hit .357, but even if he does he isn’t even on pace to match a “normal” effort from Ramirez.

In this case the deal should clearly be vetoed even if Hanley is currently batting .194 with no homers.

Closers. Pick two to keep and one to shop around – Brian Wilson, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Cordero. Thoughts?
– @alistairjhogg

The problem with questions like this is the following – almost always the player or players you should keep are the ones that will bring the most value in a deal. Therefore, do you trade the “best” guy because he will bring the most in return or do you trade the inferior guys and get lesser players in return?

Wilson is the arm you have to keep. His 9.82 ERA is a total fluke as he’s had three poor outings. Wilson still has five saves in six chances and a strikeout per inning on the young season. He’s still working his way back to full health after being slowed by a side issue in spring, but you don’t trade the majors saves leader from the past three years (127, five more than K-Rod), unless you get a huge return.

Cordero gets saves, he’s had at least 34 in each of the past four years, but his K-rate continues to plummet. After posting a 12.22 mark in 2007 we’ve seen it dip to 9.98, 7.83, 7.31 and 7.00 this season. Given that he’s walking 4.00 batters per nine this year which would be a 4th straight year of least four, you need to realize that the end is coming. Sooner or later a pitching line like that will catch up to you.

Broxton has struggled. His fastball is three mph down from where it was in 2009 (97.8), and that is a big concern. Even more concerning is his current 6.97 K/9 mark. I have to think that is a sample size thing though – he’s never been below 10.54 per nine in his career. Even more disconcerting is his 6.10 BB/9 mark. Unless you’re Carlos Marmol you cannot have success issuing that many free passes. At the same time Broxton is still generating a solid 1.56 GB/FB mark, and there is no way in the world that batters will continue to square him up this well all year (he’s allowing a 34.3 percent line drive).

Keep Wilson and Broxton. If you tried to trade the Dodger right now you likely wouldn’t get much for him anyway as people would be fixated on his ERA (4.35) and WHIP (1.84).

Should I drop Ervin Santana for Scott Baker?
– @zaktraut

It’s so funny. It’s like people have all of a sudden discovered Baker as I’m literally getting 20 questions a day about him on Twitter. Just to prove that I’m not Johnny Come Lately with Baker, I’d point you to a piece I wrote last year in October titled Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought in which I suggested that everyone keep an eye on Baker in 2011. Baker has always had the skills to be an elite level performer, but he has never been able to put it all together. Will he be able to this year? That remains to be seen, but it cannot be argued that he is off to a fantastic start (3.24 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 3.00 K/BB ).

Santana has been one of those odd every year performer (look at his win totals the last five years – 16, 7, 16, 8, 17). However, he posted a four year low in his K/9 rate (6.83) last year, continued to give up his fair share of long balls (1.09 per nine) and was hit pretty hard with a 22.1 percent line drive rate. This year he’s upped the K-rate to 7.71 while dropping his walk rate way down to 2.20 per nine, but the outward results are poor (he’s 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA). Clearly he has pitched better than the results this season. Let’s compare the two righties by looking at their career numbers.

S. Baker: 4.29 ERA,, 1.27 WHIP, 7.12 K/9, 3.36 K/BB, 0.76 GB/FB, 1.19 HR/9
Santana: 4.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.22 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.86 GB/FB, 1.15 HR/9

I want Baker even with the career numbers showing the matchup to be a toss up. I’ve said it before. One of these years it’s all going to come together for Baker and when it does, watch out.

Would you drop Matt Thornton or Sean Burnett for Ryan Franklin?
– @JSam85

I’ve written and talked about this many times, and I always say the same thing – give me skills over role and eventually I’ll come out ahead. With the massive changes we’ve already witnessed in the 9th inning this year, I wrote about this situation in The Closer Conundrum, it’s never been more obvious to me that my position is the right one. It may not always result in saves or me winning a league, but in the long run I’ll come out ahead more times than not, especially since we have no idea what managers will do in the 9th inning.

ROLE: Right now the pitcher to own would appear to be Burnett. Drew Storen is coming hard and appears to have pretty much locked down the 9th inning job with the Nationals, but Burnett figures to at least get some work in the 9th. Thornton was so bad early on that he’s likely nowhere near the 9th for the Sox, and with Mitchell Boggs looking strong, I wouldn’t expect to see Franklin closing games any time soon.

SKILLS: You may not want to hear it given his horrible start, but the best pitcher of this group in terms of skills is Thornton, and it’s not even up for an argument. Let’s look at each hurlers numbers since the start of the 2009 season.

Burnett: 7.68 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, 6.78 H/9, 10.38 BR/9
Franklin: 5.98 K/9, 2.41 K/BB, 7.86 H/9, 10.75 BR/9
Thornton: 11.28 K/9, 3.98 K/BB, 7.15 H/9, 10.18 BR/9

Are you going to let 6.2 innings of poor work from Thornton wipe out three fantastic seasons (from 2007-10, amongst hurlers who tossed 200-innings Thornton was 2nd in base runners per nine innings, fourth in K/9, sixth in ERA and ninth in K/BB)? I’m not. I have no idea who will be the most valuable fantasy performer, the answer to that depends totally on whether or not each hurler’s manager allows them to pitch the 9th inning, so give me the pitcher with the best skill set – Thornton, and leave Ryan Franklin alone.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

Around the Horn: April 20, 2011

(1) Brandon Belt sent to Triple-A.

(2) Ian Stewart sent to Triple-A.

(3) Jed Lowrie to play everyday – for now. For more see: Conspiracies and Comebacks.

(4) Ryan Franklin on longer the Cards’ closer.

(5) Jason Bay (rib cage) likely to be activated on Thursday.

(6) Austin Jackson struggling mightily.

(7) David Aardsma likely to be back by end of next week.

By Ray Flowers

April Fool’s Day

It’s my party and I’ll cry if I want to.

It’s my birthday and I’ll drink if I want to.

Yeah, it’s my birthday, and that’s no joke despite the fact that it’s April Fool’s Day. Obviously I’m feeling a bit frisky given today given the enormity of the day, so I’m just going to let it fly today and leave it up to you to determine when I’m stating a fact or exaggerating for effect.

John Axford had a WHIP of 1.92 this spring, and things didn’t get much better on opening day as he allowed a sure win to slip through the Brewers’ hands as he allowed a two out, three run homer to Ramon Hernandez in the 9th inning leading to the Reds 7-6 comeback victory. I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Axford figured out what ails him as he brings the heat and induces a lot of grounders, but if he continues to struggle Takashi Saito would seem like a pretty fair bet to pick up some save chances. Saito might be 40 years old, but look at his career numbers – 2.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.00 K/9 and a 3.89 K/BB ratio. Those are pretty phenomenal ratios are they not?

Ryan Franklin is awful. He allowed the game to slip away in the 9th inning on a 417 foot bomb to dead center by Cameron Maybin. It’s only one game, but this is exactly why rostering a power arm like that of Matt Thornton over Franklin makes all the sense in the world. As for Maybin he looked fantastic. In addition to the bomb to dead center field he also had a single and made a great diving play on defense. Emblematic of his time in the majors though, he was removed from the game after the second hit after coming up lame. Reports are that it was just a cramp, so hopefully he’ll be able to go back to being the most dynamic force in the National League in the Padres next game.

Alex Gordon had a day to remember on opening day. He missed a 3-run homer by a few feet when his deep shot ended up on the wrong side of the foul pole and he struck out three times while going 0-for-5 while leaving five batters on base. I’m cheering for the guy, but the Royals are doing him no favors but putting him in the third hole in the order. Are they trying to put so much pressure on him that he fails yet again? I know he’s been swinging a good bat, but why not bat him 7th, let him get some confidence going in regular season games, and then move him up the order is his production warrants it. Of course, that makes far too much sense for a team that, and I’m not kidding, has no idea how to put together a major league batting order. Melky Cabrera was hitting second, a great spot for a guy with a career .328 OBP and only moderate speed.

Jeff Mathis had a huge opening day for the Angels. Not only did he guide a staff to a victory, 4-2 over the Royals, he also did some serous bashing at the dish. Mathis had two hits, a homer and a double, in the best offensive game of his life going back to t-ball when he was five years old. That’s only a slight exaggeration. I mean seriously, the guy had six games of two hits or more last year and he appeared in 68 contests. How bad a hitter is he? In a career of 954 at-bats prior to opening day he had hit .195 with a .265 OBP and a .311 SLG. For those of you without a calculator handing that means his OPS of .576 is only .295 points behind the leading OPS mark posted by a catcher last season (Joe Mauer .871). I mean my goodness. Mathis’ career SLG is .311. His old mate behind the dish, Mike Napoli, has a career OBP of .346.

Albert Pujols is awful. He went 0-for-5 with three double-plays to become the first player in big league history to do that on opening day. Hopefully you didn’t draft him first overall because this was an absolutely horrible performance and one that is likely to be indicative of his yearlong struggles.

Happy April Fool’s Day.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Mailbag: March 31, 2011

I’m gonna switch it up a bit today in honor of the start of the 2011 season. Instead of going in depth on a couple of questions, I’m going to answer some quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

12 team 5×5 mixed league. Kila Ka’aihue or Mark Trumbo?
– @truesportsfan

No team scares the bejesus out of me more than the Royals who never, and I mean never, seem to have a consistent plan. Take the case of Alex Gordon. He’s been demoted to the minors, asked to switch positions, and basically marginalized by the team. He goes to spring training this year, tears it up at the dish, and now seems likely to open the year in the third hole in the batting order. That makes total sense to me.

Ka’aihue should have been playing full-time in Kansas City last year. With Eric Hosmer coming quickly, the Royals need to determine if they truly have something in Kila since both guys play first base (and don’t forget about Billy Butler who really should be a DH). Kila has 25-30 homer pop, and the young man knows the strike zone (last year he had 88 walks and 69 Ks at Triple-A). He has the exact kind of patient/power approach that teams crave at first base. His future appears to be pretty bright after a strong spring and the Royals finally deciding to commit to him as a full-time player.

Trumbo was a monster at Triple-A last year (.299-36-122), and has looked capable of providing a ton of power this season if we look at his spring training numbers (.297-6-20 with a .978 OPS in 25 games). At the same time, I worry about where he will play once Kendrys Morales returns to action (potentially by mid to late April). The issue is this – the Angels have one to many players for 1B/OF/DH. For those five spots they have six guys: Trumbo, Morales, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Peter Bourjos. The key to Trumbo’s playing time is likely Bourjos. If he hits enough to get on base and use his 40+ stolen base wheels he’ll be in the lineup everyday (I didn’t even mention his defense which some consider to be as good as any outfielder in baseball) leaving Trumbo without a consistent spot in the lineup.

If choosing between these two first basemen I’d take Kila.

People seem down on Ryan Franklin. Would you swap him for Joel Hanrahan or Drew Storen?
– @Cwhitney1

Far too many people seem reluctant to tab Hanrahan this year, and I just don’t get it. Just compare his numbers versus Franklin last season.

Hanrahan: 12.92 K/9, 3.85 K/BB, 1.05 GB/FB
Franklin: 5.82 K/9, 4.20 K/BB, 1.15 GB/FB

Everything being equal, I’ll take the guy who strikes out twice as many guys and doesn’t rely on smoke and mirrors to get outs.

Storen has looked completely lost at times this spring, and the plan in Washington right now is to go with some sort of committee approach which could be led by Sean Burnett. Do yourself a favor and grab Hanrahan. It might now work out, but he is the hurler I’d take without question (for more on why that is see How to Evaluate Relievers).

With Brad Lidge out for a couple months who’s the safer pick – Ryan Madson or Jose Contreras?
– @tjaden_buster

Madson is by far the “safer” selection (see Radiant Relievers). However, apparently no one in the Phillies organization realizes that fact as he has constantly taken a backseat to Brad Lidge for 9th inning work in recent years. With the news about the shoulder injury with Lidge, one that could keep him out of action well into June,  that means Madson will finally be given the chance to close, right? Actually, no. It appears almost certain that the Phillies will call on Jose Contreras to take over closing duties. Contreras was dominant last year with more than a K per inning and an impressive 3.56 K/BB mark, but he is also “reportedly” 39 years old, had never posted a K/BB mark above 2.44 (albeit as a starter), and has four career saves. Contreras appears likely to have more early season value, but Madson is still the “safer” play based on his skill set.

Should I keep Justin Morneau at $18 in a 6×5 mixed. $260 budget? OPS is our 6th batting category.
– @frankdepino

I don’t have much faith in Morneau. He might go out and hit 25 homers with 100 RBI, but it’s a huge risk as he is still working his way back from a concussion. People seem to be thinking he is going to pick right up from last years level of production (.345-18-56 in 81 games), but I’m just not sold. First, he has a career .286 average and has only three seasons in his career over .275 if you include last season. Second, though his OPS was tremendous last year at 1.055, he’s only posted a mark over .880 one time in a full season (.934 in 2006). Third, and most obvious, is his health – will he be able to play everyday? Personally I wouldn’t have spent that much on Morneau, there’s just too much risk for me, but if he plays 145 games he’ll surely produce $18 worth of production.

Ryan Raburn is a better pick up than Logan Morrison?
– @mattextreme

Raburn is a player everyone seems really hot on right now. Do to popular demand, I wrote a piece about him entitled 2011 Player Profile: Ryan Raburn. Here’s a quick recap. He’s a great power option if he qualifies at second base, but as an outfielder he is merely a depth option. Regardless of where he qualifies, Raburn is still the choice between these two guys in my mind. Morrison could easily have the more productive big league career, but in terms of his fantasy value he is somewhat limited. He won’t steal many bases, he’s only swiped 23 over the past five years, and though he hit 24 homers at Single-A in 2007, he’s managed a mere 29 homers over his last 1,264 at-bats. His stroke is much more doubles oriented at the moment that one that will lift balls into the seats. His plate discipline is a strong suit, he could walk as many times as he strikes out which should allow him to produce an effective batting average, but without power or speed Morrison’s 5×5 value is somewhat limited.

What do you think of Tim Stauffer?
– @johndasher

Stauffer is one of those pitchers who somehow has moved up 35 spots on some people’s draft boards despite never having thrown a pitch in a regular season game. Hell, some people probably didn’t even know who he was two months ago. I’m not one of those guys as I was trumpeting him back in January in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer. Bottom line, there’s a lot to like with this Padres’ hurler.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

Around the Horn: June 21, 2010

(1) Edwin Encarnacion was demoted then designated for assignment by Blue Jays.

(2) Ryan Franklin will likely retire after the 2011 season.

(3) David DeJesus is on fire in June, and he’s also on the trade market.

(4) Mariano Rivera has retired 21-straight batters. He has lost nothing with age.

(5) The Yankees will skip the next turn in rotation for Phil Hughes.

(6) Rookie update – Carlos Santana hitting .393 in nine games. Mike Stanton hitting .233. Stephen Strasburg sets record with 32 Ks in first three starts.

(7) David Aardsma might be on the trade block, and if he is, many teams will be interested.

By Ray Flowers

Playoff Baseball: NLCS

I hate the Dodgers. Always have, always will. In fact, if I met the woman of my dreams, and I mean she was perfect, yet her one flaw was that she was a Dodgers fan — I don’t know if it would work out. I loathe that team, have since I was old enough to understand baseball, and as a lifetime Giants fan that will never, ever change. Therefore, it pained me to watch the Dodgers/Phillies game.

Pedro Martinez was flat out dealing in Game 2 of the NLCS as he held his former team, the Dodgers, to a mere two hits in seven innings of scoreless work. He may barely be able to hit 90 mph on the radar gun, but that man has a better understanding of how to pitch than about 95 percent of the men out there. Too bad the bullpen blew his effort in the eighth inning when manager Charlie Manuel called on five different arms to record three outs which they did but only after they allowed three hits, two walks and two runs. I know I bag on Manuel all the time, but really, how couldn’t I? Five pitchers in one inning? Talk about over managing.

Vincente Padilla looked great today holding the Phillies to four hits and one run over his 7.1 innings to help the Dodgers even up the series with the Phillies. Still, I can’t be the only one who found it odd that the TBS announcers kept talking about him like he was the second coming of Don Drysdale. His stuff can certainly allow him to dominate, but come on now.

Anyone else looking forward to the weekend? For some reason it just seemed like this week would never end. Kind of reminds me of a horror movie with Michael Myers of Halloween fame. Come to think of it, it’s time to pull out the Original Halloween, the one from the late 70′s done by John Carpenter, and give it my yearly viewing. If you haven’t see it you must – for my money it’s the best horror film ever made, right up there with Psycho and the original Texas Chainsaw Massacre.

The day after my Stephen Jackson piece, I’m still 100 percent what I wrote in Captain Jack? I Think Not.

I’m already missing daily baseball (I love the playoffs, but only one or two games a day just doesn’t cut it for me). Something about the rhythm of the game just gets to me. The worst part is opening up the paper each day, yes I still walk outside in my slippers into the cold morning air to pick up an actual paper, and not seeing box scores. As a true fan of baseball, is there another way to more closely connect with the game than to pour through copious amounts of box scores? Not only does it take me back to my youth and discussions with my father about who was better than who, it just gives me something to do when I’m eating Wheaties for breakfast. I have to pause while I wipe a tear away.

Playoff Bullpens

I want to thank John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle for pointing out the following facts. Mr. Shea noted that in the playoffs, at least this season, teams have only been as strong as their closers. Through the first round of the playoffs, the stark contrast between the have’s and the have not’s is pretty astounding.

During the regular season, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Huston Street and Ryan Franklin had a save conversion rate of 90 percent as each man recorded at least 35 saves. How did they do in the playoffs? They were dreadful: 0-4, 10.13 ERA, 3.25 WHIP with four blown saves in just eight innings of work. Putrid isn’t a strong enough word. Do in no small part to each man’s failures, they are all sitting at home eating Doritos and drinking Red Bull right now.

How did the four closers on the winning teams do? How about a 100 percent conversion rate on saves with a 0.87 ERA in 10.1 innings.

Pretty easy to say which “position” was the most valuable one in the first round of the playoffs. Makes me long for the days when men were men and they actually pitched a full nine innings.

By Ray Flowers

At What Cost?

Every team needs saves. Some take the chance on draft day and roster “locks” like Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan, while others take the chance on guys with good skills that have yet to prove themselves (names like Frank Francisco, Joey Devine and Chad Qualls). Others wait to roster closer off of the waiver-wire knowing full well that saves can be had, in standard 12 team leagues, virtually all season via free agency. In fact, according to our friends at Baseball HQ, roughly 1/3 to ½ of all closers who open the year as their teams top ninth inning ace failed to return even 50% of their draft day value by seasons end (that means if you spent $20 on a reliever he would be just as likely to earn $20 as he would be to earn $10 or less in production). Think that’s off the mark? Just look at names that little last years save leaders and think back as to how many of these guys could have been had off waivers in the month of April, 2008.

George Sherrill- 31 saves
Salomon Torres- 28
Ryan Franklin- 17
Fernando Rodney-13
Dan Wheeler- 13
Jensen Lewis- 13
Brad Ziegler- 11

My bet is that every one of those guys were available in your league last April.

The point is that guys with saves can certain be found on waivers, in fact early season breakout candidates in this realm include the likes of Ryan Franklin (seven), and Fernando Rodney (six). The question becomes, how much do you spend on guys if you are in a league that uses free agent acquisition budget’s (FAAB) and your are looking at in season moves? Here are my thoughts on the four biggest names that were likely picked up weekend.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros
With Jose Valverde likely to miss at least four weeks with a calf injury, Hawkins will likely hold down the ninth inning for the Astros, and this position was further enhanced when Doug Brocail was forced to the DL with a hamstring injury. Hawkins hasn’t recorded double-digit saves since 2004 and he has just 10 saves and 20 blown saves in that time. In fact, since 2005 Hawkins has a 3.87 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and a 5.77 K/9 mark. That’s league average across the board, but at least you know you should get a month of save chances out of him.
VALUE: Medium

Joe Beimel, Nationals
Julian Tavarez is also in the mix for saves, and Beimel is actually in the minors right now on a rehab assignment for a left hip flexor strain (he hopes to be back this week). Beimel has appeared in 224 games since the start of the 2006 season, and in that time he has only thrown 193.2 innings as more often than not he wasn’t asked to face right-handed batters. In this time frame he also owns a 4.83 K/89 mark and a 1.55 K/BB rate, terrible numbers for a reliever and putrid for a closer. He will likely get a few saves, but I just can’t see him being the answer as Joel Hanrahan certainly should get a shot to reclaim his lost job at some point.
VALUE: Low

Ryan Madson, Phillies
Only a closer if Brad Lidge is out with injury. There are concerns with Lidge’s knee, but Madson is clearly the second option even though at this point his ability to accrue saves is nil. Still, Madson is a fine addition given that his fastball has gained three mph this season (94.6) leading to a huge boost in his K/9 mark (13.09) while working with a tremendous 1.83 G/F ratio. If Lidge goes down, still a possibility, Madson gains a ton of value.
VALUE: Medium

Michael Wuertz, Athletics
Joey Devine is out for the year. Brad Ziegler is missing time with an illness. Santiago Casilla is on the DL with a calf strain. That means Wuertz has picked up a couple of saves while sporting a solid 8.56 K/9 marl and a scintillating 6.50 K/BB. Don’t expect it to continue as his control has never been remotely this good (2.18 K/BB career). When Ziegler and Casilla are healthy look for Wuertz to be nothing more than a solid middle reliever option, especially with Andrew Bailey also pitching lights out (1.53 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 20 K in 17.2 IP).
VALUE: Low

The bottom line is that saves are available and will continue to be on there on waivers through the course of the season. Just make sure you invest wisely so as to avoid picking up a handful of saves while imploding your ratios.

By Ray Flowers

Injured Stars Returning?

Kris Benson is scheduled to make an appearance on Sunday at Double-A Frisco after throwing on Thursday without incident. If all goes well, he could return on May 9th to the rotation for the Rangers. Wait a second, wasn’t this article supposed to be about returning “stars?” Oops, my bad. The only star in the Benson family is Anna, the smoking hot significant other of Kris (her picture, and it doesn’t really do her justice, graces this article above).

I certainly don’t want to jinx things, and being just a wee bit superstitious I’ve almost been afraid to comment on the status of Ryan Franklin who has jumped out of the gates like a sprinter in a distance race. While allowing only four hits and issuing just two walks in 10.1 innings leading to a 0.58 WHIP. Franklin hasn’t permitted a single run on the young season and is 7-for-7 in save chances. That’s all I’m going to say other than keep it up an hopefully you have enough of a finishing kick to finish strong Mr. Franklin.

Cole Hamels should return to the mound on Friday for the first time since spraining his ankle in his last start to throw a bullpen session. If things go well he will make his scheduled start on Monday. In his four starts this year he has a 7.27 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP, though his K/9 mark is virtually identical to last season (7.79 to 7.76) as is his BB/9 mark (2.08 to 2.10). What is to blame? Would you believe a rather healthy does of luck? After all, his BABIP mark has ballooned from .288 in his career to .394 in his four appearances this season.

Joe Mauer (back) should be back in the Twins lineup on Saturday night. He went 6-for-15 with four RBI during his rehab assignment. Get ready to plug him right back into your lineup starting next Monday. Let’s just hope that his mysterious injury is behind him and that he can instantly return to his .300+ hitting ways. On a side note, the return of Mauer is coming at a great time for a Twins club that hasn’t gotten much out of Mike Redmond who first dealt with a groin issue and now a bum shoulder. After hitting at least .287 in each of the past four years, Redmond is hitting just .226 on the year – a terribly disappointing effort from a guy who was asked to merely do his normal thing for the month of April. If the club decides to DL Redmond it would appear that Jose Morales would continue to function as the backup to Mauer, and Morales has certainly shown that he is ready to contribute at the dish as he has gone 15-for-43 in the early going (.349).

A-Rod may have used performance enhancing drugs while on the Yankees. I’m shocked.

Pablo Sandoval has been on fire of late with an amazing total of 14 hits in 30 ABs (.467) to raise his overall average up to .307. So let the good time role? Not exactly. Pablo strained his groin on Wednesday night, though the Giants are off Thursday, so perhaps Pablo will be back in the lineup on Friday (fingers crossed). Though he moves pretty well for a big fella, it’s hardly a surprise that the big fella pulled a muscle as he is carrying nearly 250 lbs on his 5’11″ frame. This injury is likely minor, but it wouldn’t hurt at all if the 22 year old learned that his body is his living. So start hitting the Stairmaster Mr. Sandoval, and lay off the third helpings at the open buffet.

Joakim Soria is nearing a return to the hill for the Royals after throwing a bullpen session without incident. As a result, he will likely be back closing by the end of the weekend, thereby sparing us the scene of having to watch Kyle Farnsworth try to close out games.