MLB: The Final Friday

The Dodgers gave Andre Ethier a 5-year, $85 million deal signaling that he is one of the building blocks of their offense. Then we get this. Manager Don Mattingly said the following about Ethier’s inability to hit left-handed pitching. “I can say all day long that I think he’s capable of hitting against lefties, but if the numbers keep telling us that maybe he can’t, then we have to go a different route,” he said. I’m not going to disagree with Mattingly because he’s right. Ethier is hitting .214/.269/.319 against lefties this year, a terrible batting line. For his career, the numbers are only slightly better at .236/.295/.350. The truth is the Dodgers gave a platoon player an $85 million contract. Has a contract ever looked worse before it actually took effect?

Dexter Fowler may or may not start again this season even though x-rays of his left wrist came back negative. He played some defense Thursday, so he just might still get some work at the dish, but it’s no lock. It’s been an uneven ride for Fowler this year but it’s hard to complain when he’s hit .300 with 13 homers, 12 steals and 72 runs scored. Fowler has also gotten on base at an impressive .389 clip, and that .474 SLG ain’t too shabby either. He’s hit .315 against the lefties and .293 against the righties showing an ability to handle both thanks to his switch hitting, but his work away from Coors is still an issue. Dexter has hit .332 with a .984 OPS in home games but just .262 with a .720 OPS on the road, so that continues to be an issue to think about when setting your lineups next year.

Gio Gonzalez won his major league leading 21st game Thursday night. While that is a career best mark and highly impressive in it’s own right, there is this. If he doesn’t start again (he shouldn’t), he will end the year with 21 victories and 199.1 innings pitched. That is significant because it will make him the first hurler in big league to record 21 victories while throwing less than 200 innings. The first.

When $50,000 doesn’t go as far as it used to.

The best pitcher in baseball is Craig Kimbrel. Thanks to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution for pointing the following out: over his last 49 appearances Kimbrel has a 0.55 ERA, which is amazing. He’s posted a 0.46 WHIP which is stupendous. He struck out 92 batters leading to a 16.78 K/9 while walking just six batter leading to a 15.33 K/BB ratio. Folks, it just doesn’t get any better than that.

Dan Uggla has had the worst season of his impressive career. After 6-straight years of 27 homers, 82 RBIs and 84 runs scored, the longest streak in baseball history for a second sacker, he’s going to fall off the pace this season. Still, 19 homers, 77 RBIs and 85 runs scored are all solid marks. However, that .217 batting average is terrible, even for a fella who has hit .253 for his career. I can’t blame the Braves for being a bit weary but it should be noted that, in addition to the solid counting number production, that Uggla also has a .343 OBP which is an exact match for his career mark even with that career-low batting average thanks to a career best walk rate.

STRONG FINISHING KICK
(The Past Two Weeks)

.591 – The BABIP of Brandon Moss over his last 44 plate appearances. Chris Nelson is just behind at .550 followed by Joey Votto at .500.

.439 – The batting average of Justin Smoak who has also gone deep five times. He needs one homer for 20 homers for the season. Over at Fleaflicker it’s clear that no one is buying his hot couple of weeks.

.438 – Marco Scutaro’s batting average over his last 12 games during which time he’s also scored 12 runs while knocking in 11.

.417 – Ichiro Suzuki is finally hitting. Not just that, he’s running like it was the old days. He’s stolen seven bases the past two weeks, the same total as Everth Cabrera, the most in baseball.

6 – The league leading homer total of Miguel Cabrera who also leads the majors with 16 runs scored and 15 RBIs. The RBI total has also been matched by the Phillies’ Ryan Howard though he’s saddled his teams with a mere .188 batting average.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat: At the Break

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray break down some guys to be grabbing in keeper and dynasty league and talk about a few players and what they expect from their 2nd half.

Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Justin Upton, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Ivan Nova, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes and more…

Listen to the Audio.

Timing is Everything

People try to play fantasy baseball like they try to time the stock market. If it works, an it rarely does, you look like a genius. In the long run, most of the time if you just stand pat, provided of course that you have the right commodities in your portfolio, you will come out ahead. Today I’ll give my thoughts on which ballplayers you’ll want to hold on to, and which might end up disappointing you with only a moderate return on your investment.

I still find it rather surprising that so many people seem so willing to toss away Michael Bourn in trade offers. I know he has no homers and seven RBI, but folks, do you realize how good he has been otherwise? Besides hitting .333 this speedster also has a .404 OBP and he’s on pace for 108 runs scored and 59 steals. Deal him at your own peril.

Rafael Furcal is hitting .342 with 15 RBI, 22 runs scored and six steals for the Cardinals reminding everyone that he can still be a dynamic talent when healthy. However, and you know how I hate to bring bad news, the guy has failed to appear in 100 games in three of the past four years so I wouldn’t be at all adverse to anyone trading him while they can because things are bound to get ugly at some point.

Ryan Howard (Achilles), finally, took batting practice Monday for the first time since February. Howard still doesn’t have a target date for a return, but the prevailing wisdom is that he will be back in action, barring any more setbacks of course, in late May or early June. Given his rate of production the past two years – he’s averaged 32 homers and 112 RBI the past two campaigns – if he starts action on June 1st he’d be able to play in 2/3 of the Phillies games this season. That would equate to about 21 homers and 75 RBI. Of course, that’s if he hits the ground running and matches his level of production from the past two seasons. I’m not sure that is going to happen given how much time he has missed (for more on Howard see his Player Profile).

Ask around and people will tell you that Andrew McCutchen has been a major disappointment. I can’t sit here and say I’m not leaning in that direction myself, but let’s keep things in perspective. He’s one hit from batting .300 at .298 which would be a career best. His current .356 OBP is just under his career .364 rate, and that’s despite the fact that his walk rate has gone down by about 40 percent from his career level. He’s also on pace for 29 thefts after averaging 26 his first three big league seasons. The reason he’s been disappointing is that he’s gone 94 at-bats without a home run leading him to a paltry seven RBI. He’s also scored only seven times since the Pirates offense has been so anemic. I’m on record though as a big time McCutchen supporter, an I’m still in that camp.

There’s only one more show for Smash. Who will be named Marilyn – Karen Cartwright or Ivy Lynn? I can’t believe that I just admitted to the world that I actually watch Smash. Go Karen.

Remember when you were panicked because Brandon Morrow had a 4.50 ERA and just nine strikeouts in his first three starts? Hopefully you held on tight to the fire balling righty as he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over his last three starts. He’s also struck out 20 batters and walked just one in stamping himself as an arm to watch this season.

Sounds like Brad Penny faked an injury to his shoulder to get out of his two year deal with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in the Japan League (tests showed no structural damage). Count me as shocked. That guy is a joke, has been for years. Regardless, it’s only a matter of time before some team takes the plunge and signs Penny even though his performance since 2008 has been flat out bad: 31-33, 5.11 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 4.79 K/9, 1.64 K/BB.

Dale Thayer got the save for the Padres Monday night. Andrew Cashner, thought by many to be the presumptive favorite for 9th inning work with Huston Street out with a lat injury, threw 39 pitches Sunday so he was likely unavailable meaning we still don’t really know who will serve as the 9th inning arm (Luke Gregerson could also get some work). Cashner has a huge arm, but he also often has no idea where the ball is going. In 13.2 innings he struck out 12 batters but he’s also walked 12. That’s ugly. Thayer, who has more than 170 minor league saves in his minor league career, has walked only one batter in 31 big league innings as the anti-Cashner. You have to think that Cashner who is younger and has the bigger arm will get a crack at the role, but Thayer is there to pick up the pieces in the even that Cashner struggles.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Delmon Young

In 2010 Delmon Young was a star. Not only did he finish one hit from a .300 season, he also bashed a career best 21 homers and socked 46 doubles. Young also knocked in 112 runs, the 8th highest total in baseball, more than Robinson Cano (109), Mark Teixeira (108), Ryan Howard (108), Evan Longoria (104), Ryan Braun (103), Matt Holliday (103) etc. So how is it that Young is currently going off the board as the 65th outfielder taken with an ADP of 233 overall according to MockDraftCentral?

The most obvious answer as to why Young is being drafted after guys like Lorenzo Cain, Seth Smith and Lucas Duda is that Young failed to follow up his breakout 2010 effort last season. Young slumped to a career worst .268, hit only 12 homers, scored just 54 runs and nearly saw his RBI total cut in half as he produced just 64. As I talk/write about all the time, people have really short attention spans at times. However, one would hope that if a formerly impressive performer struggled but turns things on toward the end of the year, that people would remember that. Apparently that is not the case with Young. After joining the Tigers Young, who had four homers and 32 RBI in 84 games with the Twins, went on to blast eight homers with 32 RBI in 40 games with the Tigers. Delmon isn’t going to hit 32 homers with 128 RBI this season, but that hot finish should have spurred some interest in Young, but alas, it really hasn’t.

One of the biggest issues with Young has always been expectations. I say that because Young has never become the superstar that people expected he would be when he was taken first overall in the 2003 draft. Go back and look at prospect reports and you will see that Young was ranked as the number one prospect in baseball for multiple seasons. He’s only had one effort in five full seasons that is worthy of that designation though, an as a result I would bet you that people are burying Young as a “failure” instead of realizing that he is a pretty solid performer – once expectations are thrown out the window.

What Young isn’t is a power hitter. He never will be. It’s possible he might hit 25 homers one day, but 30 homers is likely a pipe dream, hardly a surprise given that he has averaged 14 homers a season the last five years. The reason for the lack of long ball power is that Young has never learned how to lift the ball. The major league average fly ball rate is about 37 percent. For his career Young’s fly ball rate is 33.6 percent. If he isn’t hitting a lot of fly balls then he’s going to need a big HR/F ratio to give him homers (like Ryan Howard). Unfortunately, Young is the owner of a 9.2 percent HR/F rate, right on the major league average. He’s never going to be a big time power bat.

Young also will never lead his team in thefts. He does have two seasons with double-digit thefts with a career-high of 14 back in 2008, but over the last three seasons he’s stolen a total of eight bases while being caught nine times. That’s just pathetic.

However, Young is a strong hitter in terms of his ability to produce hits. Young owns a career batting average of .288 and prior to last season he had never hit below .284 in a season. Why the slump last year then? Though he had an 18.3 percent line drive rate in 2011, one tenth above his career rate of 18.2 percent, his BABIP was a career worst .320 (some .026 points below his career average). A few more of those batted balls should fall for hits in 2012, and with those hits, his batting average will return.

As stated, Young has his limits. He’s never going to be a power hitter, and 2010 might go down as the best RBI campaign of his career. He’s also never learned how to take a pitch, his career BB/K mark is hideous at 0.24, so he will likely have plenty of dry spells throughout the year (being such a free swinger might limit him to being a .285 hitter versus a guy who could hit .315 if he just showed some patience). Regardless of the holes in his game, Young would appear to be a fantastic bargain at his current ADP level. If he’s your 5th outfielder in a mixed league your team will likely be in pretty good shape for the coming season.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Mike Stanton

Ask anyone and they will tell you that Mike Stanton is a future star in this game. The owner of prodigious power, no park in the land can contain the ferocity with which Stanton sends balls into orbit. Because of his almost unparallelled ability to drive the ball into the cheap seats, Stanton’s value in the fantasy game continues to grow. Take a look over at MockDraftCentral and you’ll find that Stanton’s Average Draft Position is inside the top-25 (24.4 actually). Two questions come to my mind when I see that. (1) Can Stanton live up to those expectations? (2) How can Stanton possibly live up to those expectations? I know those are in effect the same question, I’m just trying to make a point — I think it’s going to be pretty darn difficult for Stanton to be as productive in 2012 as people expect him to be based on where he is being drafted. Before I get to that line of thought, he’s a quick run down of Stanton’s skill set.

Stanton has only 875 big league at-bats in his young career so that makes prognostication somewhat more difficult than normal. The guy has one season of 375 at-bats, so the old sample size question can be rightly brought up here as an uncertainty.

Stanton has hit .259 and .262 in his two big league seasons. In those two years he has hit .261, just every so slightly above the big league average of .256. Can he produce a better batting average than that moving forward? On a positive note he did boost his walk rate by three percent while cutting his strikeout rate by 3.5 percent in his second season. However, his BB/K mark was slightly below the league average at 0.42, and he still struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats (27.6 percent to be precise). That doesn’t sound like a guy who is primed for a batting average increase. Stanton also owns a mere 16.4 percent line drive rate in his career (16.5 and 16.3 percent the last two years). While he should be able to maintain his average given the homers he will hit that don’t count in this measure but lead to hits, it is somewhat concerning that Stanton is pretty far removed from the 19-20 percent big league average.

Stanton is all about the power which he has flashed since day one. However, and yes there actually is a ‘however’ when talking about his power, I have one small concern with Stanton. Much like Ryan Howard, another prodigious power bat, Stanton doesn’t hit as many fly balls as you think. In fact, Stanton’s career fly ball rate of 39.3 percent is only about two percent above the league average. He really doesn’t hit that many balls into the air. As a result, the only way he is going to blast 40+ homers is going to be if he converts a large percentage of those fly balls into home runs. Stanton has done that the last two years with an impressive 24.0 percent HR/F rate, and last year his 24.8 percent HR/F rate was the highest mark in baseball (to compare, the average big league posts a mark of about 10 percent, and even a huge power bat like Albert Pujols had only an 18.3 percent mark last season). Maybe Stanton can lead the league in this category year after year, it’s certainly possible. All I’m saying is that he’s going to have to be near the top of the leader board in HR/F ratio if he wants to hit 40 homers if he doesn’t hit more balls into the air.

Finally, an athletic 6’5”, Stanton has stolen five bases in each of his big league seasons but he’s just not going to run very much – it’s not his game.

So what do we have in Stanton?

(1) We had an hitter who strikes out far too much.

(2) We have a hitter who profiles as a league average contributor in batting average.

(3) We have a hitter with elite power, though one who struggles to hit a lot of fly balls.

(4) We have a player who is unlikely to steal many bases.

Does that sound like a top-25 fantasy player to you?

Let me ask you this – would you be happy if Stanton hit .264 with 40 homers, 106 RBI and 101 runs scored in 2012? You had better say yes because all four of those numbers would be career bests for Stanton. You know who put up those exact numbers in 2007? Try Adam Dunn. Did anyone, EVER, look at Dunn and think he was a top-25 fantasy performer? Anyone? Of course you didn’t. What if Stanton hit .248 with 39 homers, 111 RBI and 90 runs scored in 2012? That would also be considered a career best effort for Stanton so you would have to be please wouldn’t you? Mark Teixeira did that last season and he’s being drafted after Stanton (Tex has a 27.8 ADP). Would you really rather have Stanton over a guy like Teixeira who has hit 30 homers with 100 RBI each of the past eight years given that Tex is also in a great offensive ball yard in a potent offense with the Yankees?

If Stanton improves across the board and has a rather impressive third season, something like either the Dunn or Teixeira campaign’s I mentioned above, he’s still not likely to live up to his top-25 billing. He offers little on the bases to augment his value, and that league average batting mark isn’t going to do him any favors either. I’m not saying to avoid Stanton or that he will fail. I’m merely pointing out that the hope of a huge power season might be causing people to draft Stanton at a point where he can’t possibly live up to expectations.

Don’t forget to pick up a copy of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

First Base Mediocrity?

In years past, first base was the land of offensive titans. To a certain extent that still is the case with names like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez etc. However, once you get past the elite options at first base, let’s say outside the top-10 or 12, there are a whole bunch of options that have similar outlooks for 2012. I’ll break down some of those players in today’s piece (for my rankings of first baseman, and all the positions, go pick up a copy of my 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide).

The old and boring: Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Carlos Lee
All three of these guys are certain to provide plenty of production in 2012, though all have seen their best days pass them buy. Berkman turned back the clock last year but there are questions. How will he do without Pujols? After two years of less than 140-games played, can he reasonably be expected to make 145 appearances again? Even if he stays healthy, where did last year’s production come from after two down years? Pena will hit his 28 homers and knock in his 80 runs like he has the past five years. He’s also failed to hit .230 the last three years and has gotten so bad against lefties (.133 in 120 ABs last year) that he may not face many of them in 2012. Lee also qualifies at outfield which is nice, and he has hat 19 homers and 80 RBI each of the past 12 years. Still, there’s not much going on here anymore.

The young and boring: Freddie Freeman, Gaby Sanchez
Freeman reportedly gained 15 lbs of muscle. Newsflash, you can’t gain 15 lbs of muscle in five months. Maybe he went on a diet of Bacon Milkshakes? Even if he did gain muscle he’ll have to learn to lift the ball more if he was to significantly increase his homer total (he’s HR/F ratio for his short career is under 35 percent, and that’s below the big league average of about 37 percent). Sanchez did see an increase in his walk rate last year, but he’s basically produced identical seasons back-to-back. H’s solid, but there likely isn’t another level left for the 28 year old.

The young and who knows?: Ike Davis, Paul Goldschmidt
Davis is young, has the pedigree, and his ankle finally appears to be healthy. Still, this offseason talk of him hitting .300 with 30 homers is completely the result of him playing in New York. I don’t think he’ll hit either of those numbers this season, but if healthy, the power production should be solid. Goldschmidt has a bright future. The D’backs will give him all the at-bats he proves he can earn, and with that he should also be a solid run producer.

The old and who knows?: Ryan Howard
I’m not a big fan. You can read why in his Player Profile.

The flat out who knows: Justin Morneau, Kendrys Morales
Both guys appear to be progressing, and the Twins and Angels are starting to grow optimistic. At the same time, neither is anything other than a depth addition with the hope that their previous levels of productivity return.
You can get solid production after the elite options are taken at first base, but it doesn’t appear very likely that you’re going to get difference making numbers after the first 10 or so options are off the board at the position.

You can check out how Fleaflicker has the first sackers ranked by clicking on the link.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ty Wigginton

Ty Wigginton is like a Honda Civic. A Civic isn’t flashy and it certainly doesn’t impress your date when you roll up to her house in it, yet it’s affordable, always gets you there on time and is as trustworthy an option as there is on the road. That’s Wigginton in a nutshell. He isn’t gonna haul 6,000 lbs., he isn’t going to run to 60 mph in 4.6 seconds, and he certainly isn’t gonna boost season ticket sales, but at the end of the day Wigginton just gets it done. I bring this all up because Wigginton was dealt to the Phillies on Sunday as the Rockies seem intent to give Ian Stewart yet another shot to prove himself at third base (or perhaps they might just turn to Brandon Wood, Chris Nelson or Jordan Pacheco until AFL MVP Nolan Arenado is ready to take over at the hot corner?). Wigginton was dealt, along with cash, for a Player To Be Named Late and/or cash. So why would the Rockies want to rid themselves of their Honda Civic?

Wigginton can play all over the field. He suited up for 27 games in the outfield, 36 at first base, and 68 at third base in 2011. Versatility like that always makes Ty a fine final offensive player on a fantasy club. It also enables him to see a lot of playing time as he can fill in at multiple spot. Given that Placido Polanco and Ryan Howard are both coming off surgeries, the addition of Wigginton makes a lot of sense for the Phils (Placido should be ready for opening day, but most reports suggest that Howard could miss most of April).

What about performance?

Wigginton isn’t going to steal many bases, he has only 41 thefts in his career, but he did swipe eight in 2011, a seven year high. Still, he’s not a speed demon. Wigginton also isn’t a batting average option of renown. Ty has a career batting average of .265, and the last two years he’s failed to hit even .250 (.248 and .242) after a 4-year run of hitting at least .273. The main reason for the drop the last two years is that his hit rate, in the .290′s for his career, has left him with a BABIP of .270 and .271 the past two years. I’m inclined to think that it’s because Ty has lost that little bit extra with his bat speed, something that may be show in the fact that his K-rate has gone up a bit the past two years. He could see some improvement with his BABIP, but it’s not a certainty and would likely be a mild bump.

So I’m painting a portrait of a guy who just isn’t very exciting, but that’s because I’ve left out his best trait – his power. Ty has hit 22 or more homers in four of the past six years, an in five of those six years he’s hit at least 15. Given that he’s averaged just 462 at-bats those six years, his average homer total of 20 a season is pretty darn solid, especially from a guy who qualifies at three positions. Ty has seen some slight regression in his HR/FB the past two years after a peak from 2005-08, but his marks of 12.5 and 13.2 percent the past two years are virtually identical to his career 12.7 mark. He should be fine in terms of the power output in 2012.

So what do you do with Wigginton? At the moment it certainly doesn’t seem like he will have a spot in the every day lineup with the Phillies, so expecting 462 at-bats from him this season is likely asking for too much. As such, Wigginton makes for an ideal option in NL only leagues but a bit of a stretch in mixed leagues unless you are in a 15 teamer. He’ll be solid when he plays, and that flexibility certainly makes him a valuable add in the right circumstance, but don’t go a reaching for the Phillies newest addition.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ryan Howard

Ryan Howard, the Phillies’ slugger, may or may not be at 100 percent in April as he is attempting to come back from a torn Achilles tendon that he suffered making the Phillies last out of the 2011 season (the optimistic out there  believe he will be ready to play in April though it may take a bit longer). However, as much as the Achilles issue bothers me, I’m more concerned with a slowly deteriorating skill set with the 31 year old first baseman whose best days are already behind him.

THE CONCERNS

(1) As I mentioned, despite only six full seasons at the big league level, Howard is already 31 years old and he turns 32 on November 19th. Given his body type, and this has been brought up a lot in baseball circles, there is a concern that he could lose his skills a bit sooner than others who are more physically fit. These two issues make the 5-year, $125 million extension the Phils signed him to look exceedingly risky.

(2) Howard strikes out in more than a quarter of his at-bats. The number hasn’t gone up in recent years, it’s remained steady, but all those strikeouts certainly mean that his .313 batting average from 2006 will end up being a career best. It should also be pointed out that he has failed to hit .255 in two of the past four years.

(3) His OBP has gone down each of the past two seasons: .360, .353 and .346.

(4) His SLG has gone down each of the past two seasons: .571, .505 and .488.

(5) His .488 SLG percentage and .835 OPS in 2011 were career worsts.

(6) He hasn’t hit 35 homers the past two years after hitting at least 45 in 4-straight seasons.

(7) The last two years he’s failed to reach 120 RBI, this after reaching at least 135 in 4-straight seasons.

(8) The last two years he failed to score 90 runs, the only two times in six full seaosns he has failed to do that.

Now you might say points #7 and #8, the counting stats, are somewhat dependent on others in the Phillies’ lineup so you aren’t ready to “blame” Howard for slippage there. I agree, to a point. Still, he’s not driving in or scoring runs like he did over the first four years of his career, and last time I checked the Phils still have a pretty solid batting order don’t they? The real concern with Howard in the fantasy game is threefold. (A) He’s gonna be lucky to hit .280. (B) He never steals bases. (C) His power is on the decline.

The average major league hitter usually produces something like the following line: 19 percent line drives, 43 percent ground balls and 38 percent fly balls. In Howard’s case his career ratios are 23 percent line drives, 39 percent ground balls and 38 percent fly balls. That’s right. Despite all the homers, the fact of the matter is that Howard simply doesn’t hit that many balls into the air. In truth, his fly ball ratio is the same as the big league average. Given that fact, Howard must convert a substantial portion of his fly balls into home runs toi keep his homer total elevated. If his HR/F ratio were to slip at all, the results would be catastrophic to his homer total since he just doesn’t hit enough fly balls to make up for a lack of conversion. Therefore, when I notice that his HR/F ratio has gone down 3-straight seasons I’m very nervous. Not only has it gone down, but it’s gone way down. Here are his HR/F ratios from his six full seasons.

39.5, 31.5, 31.8, 25.4, 21.1, 21.7

That’s a massive fall off. It’s also the reason why (A) he’s bee in in the low 30′s in homers the past two years and why (B) I think his ceiling in the homer category is 35 homers, not 45 like it was from 2006-09.

So we’ve got an aging, injured first baseman who never steals bases, barely betters the league batting average, and one who’s power seems to be slipping. I’m not predicting a collapse for Howard in 2012, but even if that Achilles of his is healthy, I wouldn’t draft him expecting anything other than the levels that we’ve seen the past two years – his salad days just aren’t coming back.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – First Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.” This should be fun.

CATCHERS

2011 FIRST BASE Top-10
1 Albert Pujols
2 Joey Votto
3 Mark Teixeira
4 Miguel Cabrera
5 Prince Fielder
6 Adrian Gonzalez
7 Kevin Youkilis
8 Adam Dunn
9 Ryan Howard
10 Paul Konerko

Pujols‘ run at history, which I wrote about in On the Cusp, fell just short as he ended the year with a .299 batting average, 37 homers, 99 RBI and 105 runs scored. An impressive season for a mortal, but a disappointing effort for Pujols.

Votto wasn’t as good as he was during his MVP effort but it was pretty damn close. He posted a .324-37-113-106-16 line in 2010 and followed it up with .309-29-103-101-8 this season.

Teixeira blasted 39 homers and drove in 111 runs for the Yankees giving them the power they expected.   Unfortunately he scored “only” 90 runs, and for the second straight season he hit under .260 as he limped home to a career worst .248 mark.

Cabrera was as he always is, fantastic. I admit it, my concerns over his drinking issues were apparently unfounded. I touched on that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Fielder was second in the NL in homers (38), RBI (120) and OBP (.415) while he was third in OPS (.994). Someone is going to get awfully rich this offseason.

Gonzalez proved me half right, and half wrong. You can learn more by reading Player Profiles: 2011 Review.

Youkilis was limited all year by injury and his final line looks pretty bad (.258-17-80-68-3). Still, he was on pace to hit more than 20 homers with 100 RBI while his OBP was .373, not bad for a down season. He should be at full health next season.

Dunn fell off more than virtually any player in recent memory (Andruw Jones was close a few years back). Dunn was unquestionably the biggest failure in the game in 2011 as he hit .159 with 11 homers over 415 at-bats. I literally felt a sickness in my stomach well up writing that sentence.

Howard hit his 33 homers and had 116 RBI, but he also hit a mere .253 and scored just 81 runs. He could easily miss the start of the 2012 season as well since he ruptured his Achilles tendon on the final play of the season for the Phillies.

Konerko was strong yet again hitting .300 with 31 homers and 105 RBI. He has no speed, it’s almost surprising that he stole a base, and despite playing 149 games with a .388 OBP he scored only 69 runs for the White Sox.

Hit: Freddie Freeman #25
Freeman took a while to get going, if we remove his .225 April he hit .293 the rest of the way, an in the end he batted .282 with 21 homers and 76 RBI for the Braves. Hey, it’s first base where everyone can hit. It was hard to find a guy who really stood out past the top-15.

Bust: Dunn
U-n-b-e-l-i-e-v-a-b-l-e.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September23, 2011

(1) Leo Nunez not actually Leo Nunez?

(2) All Michael Young does is hit, hit, hit.

(3) Pablo Sandoval proving 2010 was a fluke.

(4) Can Matt Kemp actually win the NL Triple Crown?

(5) Ryan Howard ready to return from ankle injury.

(6) Matt Moore dominates the Yankees. Is he the next Stephen Strasburg?

By Ray Flowers