Mailbag: September6, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Three keepers between Aramis Ramirez, Elvis Andrus, Zack Greinke, Anthony Rizzo, David Ortiz and Mike Morse?
– @SammyLlenas

Keeper questions are always tough. Are there dollar figures attached? Are there contract years attached to the players? What positions does your league start? Five outfielder or three? Corner and Middle infielders? How many teams in your league? In lieu of that information, I’ll just dive right in and give my thoughts.

Ramirez is dealing with a minor back issue, but it hasn’t precluded him from doing what he always does, and that is performing like a top-10 third baseman. After a slow start to the year he’s predictably killed it of late. Through 126 games this season he’s hitting .295 with 21 homers, 89 RBIs and 43 doubles, an NL leading total. There’s also this. In each of the the last nine seasons in which he has appeared in 123 games Aramis has hit at least 21 homers with 85 RBIs. He is 34, and his fly ball rate has declined the past two years, so 30 homers isn’t likely to happen anymore, but the rest of his game is still nails.

Andrus has hit .298 this year, the best of his four year career. His OBP is .361, the best of his young career. His SLG is .391, the best of his young career. That’s all good stuff. His steal total is down a bit with 20, after 3-straight years of 30 steals, so that’s a concern in the fantasy world. He’s also scored 76 times putting him on pace to pretty much inch up to his 92 runs scored average the past two years. Given his age, the offense he plays in, and the improvements in his game at the plate, and the position he plays, he’s a very attractive keeper option.

Greinke has improved his work of late, after a rough start to his return to the AL. I spoke about the Angels’ hurler in my Around the Horn video.

Rizzo started out on fire when called up by the Cubs, but he’s predictably regressed. Oh he’s still hitting a solid .290 with 11 homers in 241 at-bats, an excellent turnaround after last years unmitigated disaster with the Padres (.141 with one homer in 128 at-bats). Rizzo has hit .238 with 12 homers in 369 career at-bats, terrible numbers for a corner infield option in mixed leagues. Even if we just forget about last season with the Padres, Rizzo’s current pace, spread out over 550 at-bats, would lead to a season of .290-25-73-68, and those just aren’t very impressive numbers for a mixed league first baseball. There’s also the fact that he’s been a below average fly ball hitter in his young career, and that his current line drive rate of 26 percent just isn’t sustainable.

Ortiz has played just nine games at first base the past two years. As a designated hitter only option in the fantasy game, Ortiz’ value is somewhat limited. It won’t matter if he’s hitting .318 with a 1.026 OPS like he has this year. Unfortunately for Ortiz, the last time that he posted an OPS over 1.000 was 2007. There’s also the matter of him hitting .257/.356/.498 from 2008-10. Is it really safe to assume that a 37 year old, coming off a significant Achilles injury, is going to continue to hit as well as he did this season? I’ll answer that question for you. No it is not. I’m not saying that Ortiz couldn’t pop 30 homers and knock in 100 runs next year, that’s possible given his resurgence, but he’s not likely to hit .300, he isn’t going to post a .415 OBP (his current mark), and he’s not going to maintain that .611 SLG. Just not gonna happen.

Morse hit .303 with 31 homers and 95 RBIs last season, his first full season in the big leagues. Already 30 years old, he’s a bit older than you likely thought. He’s battled successfully through injuries this season hitting .287 with 12 homers and 47 RBIs through 82 games, but that effort is well off his pace from last season (is he were to maintain his pace over the 522 at-bats he had last season he would hit .287 with 19 homers and 79 RBIs). I’m also tremendously concerned by the fact that he’s just been unable to learn how to take a pitch. After a mere 36 walks last year he’s become even less patient this year with just 13 walks. Thirteen. It’s pretty amazing he’s hit nearly .300 since the start of last season given that fact.

Ortiz is too old to keep, and with the utility only eligibility, I’ll pass. Greinke is a top level arm, but in a setup where you are only keeping three players I see little need to hold a pitcher who isn’t a top-10 option. Who is the last guy I would let go? For me, it’s Morse or Rizzo (I’m holding Aramis and Andrus). Rizzo may or may not be more productive than Morse next season, but he is seven years younger and does have a higher ceiling. Given that fact I’d lean Rizzo, though at the same time it’s not the easiest call I’ve ever made given that I have no faith that Rizzo will be a top-50 fantasy player in 2013.

Who do you like rest of the way, Ryan Ludwick, Mark Reynolds, or Delmon Young?
– @LorenzKong2

Ludwick has hit .276 with 25 homers and 72 RBIs in just 373 at-bats this season. He’s also been a star in the second half hitting .321 with 13 homers, 38 RBIs an a 1.016 OPS in 48 games. While all of that sounds like Ludwick should be the must hold here, what about these two salient points. (1) Ludwick last hit a homer on August 18th meaning he’s gone 14 games without a homer. He’s also produced just three RBIs in that time. He’s not exactly trending up. (2) Ludwick hit .237 with 13 homers last year, and .251 with 17 homers in 2010. Not exactly a solid set of efforts. In fact, since a career best season in 2008, Ludwick regressed each of the past three seasons before returning to prominence this year.

Reynolds has been a massive disappointment. Still, some notes. (1) His .232 batting average is only five points off his career rate. (2) His .350 OBP would be a career best. (3) His .797 OPS is only .016 points off his career pace. (4) His 0.47 BB/K mark would be a career best. Ditto his 30.3 percent K-rate. (5) His 22.2 percent line drive rate would be a career best. He’s failed to reach even 17.5 percent the past three years. So why the struggles this year? His power stroke vanished for a long while. The good news is that it’s back. With a vengeance. In his last six games he’s gone deep six times, has driven in 13 runs, and scored eight times. Going back further, over his last 28 games, Reynolds is hitting .304 with a 1.113 OPS, 20 runs scored, 23 RBIs and 10 homers. Killing it (the folks over at Fleaflicker are starting to take notice).

Young doesn’t have near the power of the other two options, but he is a very stable option at the dish, something the other two men can’t exactly claim to be. He’s also surging over his last 30 games. Young is hitting .321 with six bombs and 20 RBIs for the Tigers. The power isn’t likely to last, his total of 17 homers is already the second best mark of his six year career (he’s averaged 14 homers a season the last five years). He is a .286 career hitter, so that .277 batting average could come up a tad without anyone raising an eyebrow.

Young is hot, and is the best option in batting average. Ludwick has had a nice bounce back season, a terrific one in fact, but he has slumped. Reynolds is the hottest hitter at the moment, and the one likely to make the biggest dent the rest of the way. A .300 batting average from Delmon over 100 at-bats isn’t going to do much of anything for a team that has racked up thousands upon thousands of at-bats. Reynolds could help in the homer, RBI and runs scored enough to help a team gain a point here or there in the standings.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT. 

Mailbag: August2, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Should I trade Matt Kemp for CC Sabathia and Aroldis Chapman?
– @cooperkyle22

Do you need offense or pitching? If the goal is to improve your pitching staff, I don’t see how you could pass on dealing Kemp. I know he’s hitting .350 since the All-Star break, but let’s keep things in perspective. Kemp has twice injured his leg this season and that’s obviously one of the main reasons he’s stopped running. You have realized that he has fewer steals this year than Mark Trumbo (four to three), right? Without the steals he’s no longer an elite fantasy performer, he’s merely a great one.

Sabathia is about as boring as it gets, and that’s a compliment. Everyone on the hill struggles an is injured, and though CC hit the DL for a bit this year, he’s been the same horse he’s been for a decade now racking up a 10-3 record, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 123 Ks in 126 innings. Chapman had a rough two weeks to end June, but the guy has rebounded to the point that it could be argued, persuasively,  that he is the best pitcher in baseball. Over his last 16 games he hasn’t allowed a run, not a one. His WHIP in that time is 0.61. His K/9 rate is 19.29 with 35 in 16.1 innings. My goodness, his K/BB ratio is 11.67 an about 99.5 percent of baseball would sell their in-laws to the devil for a K/9 rate that high, let alone a K/BB ratio like that. Still, the most amazing part might be that he has 15 saves in 17 appearances.

I’d trade Kemp to get that duo.

Drop Salvador Perez and pick up Carlos Santana? Is Carlos finding his stroke?
– @GoBigEd

Last week I got a bunch of questions about Santana including one I tackled in the Mailbag. To reiterate my point from there; Santana can hit. No one should have given up on him, and he still owns the skills to be an elite hitter at the position, something I’ve steadfastly said for the entirety of the season even when he’s been struggling. The struggles are gone as he’s hitting .293 with five homers and 12 RBIs in 19 games since the All-Star break. He’s also getting on base at a .461 clip with a 1.116 OPS. He’s a top-5 catcher the rest of the way for me which means you have to choose him over Perez who has been great hitting .320 with five homers in 29 games, but here’s the issue. People’s expectations are totally, and I mean off the charts, out of control with Perez. He’s not a .327 hitter despite his career mark. He’s certainly not the type of hitting that’s going to hit 30 homers. Wipe that stuff out of your mind – it’s just not happening. At the same time, people seem to be moving on from Perez due to his recent struggles (.244, no homers, one RBI in 12 games) like they are fleeing the scene of a murder they committed behind a convenient store. As I always tell people – be realistic with your expectations. This isn’t fantasy football. You don’t want to bail on a guy, or add a guy off waivers, simply because they are hot/cold for 45 at-bats.

Is Ben Revere for Jonathan Papelbon a fair trade?
– @joeblow84

The obvious answer is not really. But that doesn’t mean the deal is a 100 percent turn down job if you own Papelbon either. In fact, it might be a good move.

We’re at the point of the season where you have to play the categories. It doesn’t matter if you win the steals category by two or 22, you still get the same amount of points in the roto game. Therefore, sometimes “lopsided” deals make sense, and this could be an example of that. If it’s draft day 2013, I can’t think there would be many people who would take Revere over Papelbon. Sure the Twins outfielder is hitting an impressive .319, and he has swiped 25 bags, but he has zero homers, has knocked in only 20 runs and he’s only scored 37 runs (a total you would assume would be much higher given all those thefts). He’s a huge boost in the average and steals category but he’s downright pathetic in homers and RBIs. Still, what if he were to hit .300 and steals 15 bases the rest of the way? Would that help boost your club in both of those categories to the point that you could gain multiple points in each category in the standings? It’s certainly possible.

Papelbon has hit a bit of a bump in the road the past couple of weeks, but overall he’s still sporting 23 saves, a 1.12 WHIP, 54 Ks in 43 innings an a 5.40 K/BB ratio. There is nothing wrong with that pitching line. After six straight years of at least 30-saves there’s no reason, none, to think he won’t get their for a seventh straight year and with all the craziness in bullpens this year how could anyone not want this guy on their staff.

Check out the standings. If it makes sense for to add the average and steals, deal for Revere. If it makes sense for you to hold on to Papelbon so that you don’t fall too far in the saves category, then hold on the righty reliever from Philly.

Ryan Ludwick or Josh Rutledge for my UTIL spot?
– @lugnut106

Ludwick is hitting like it’s 2008 when he blasted 37 homers with 113 RBIs for the Cards. He’s never been able to recapture that form in the intervening years, but right now he’s killing it for the Reds with 19 homers and 56 RBIs in just 80 games played. Even better, he’s murdering pitches with eight homers, 23 RBIs an a .354 batting average over his last 23 contests. In fact, the last four weeks he leads the NL in RBIs an is just one off the NL lead in homers (Brian McCann and Ike Davis each have nine). You can’t expect him to keep up this pace of course, but overall not much really stands out in his batting line as his season long numbers are nearly identical to his career averages in AVG/OBP, BB/K, BABIP, GB/FB etc. He has elevated his HR/F rate at 22 percent, well above his 13 percent career mark, but the rest is pretty standard Ludwick stuff.

Rutledge has killed it since Troy Tulowitzki went down, and he figures to slide over to second base when Tulo is back in action (oddly, only eight percent of players over at Fleaflicker have added him to their rosters). Hitting .382 with four homers in 68 at-bats, the question isn’t whether Josh will slow, it’s how much will be slow. A guy with a 50 percent ground ball rate shouldn’t also have a 24 percent HR/F mark, especially when that same player only hit 22 homers in 211 minor league games. Give his approach at the plate, chiefly never talking a walk, his BB/K mark is awful at 0.20. There are but a few players in baseball who can approach that number and hit .300. Even fewer can sustain the .400 BABIP he’s currently rocking (truthfully, no one sustains that pace).

Both players will slow but I’d take Ludwick who has produced at these levels before and figures to be a better bet to keep the power stroke flowing. Since we are talking about a utility player I’m not concerned with the obvious advantage that Rutledge brings because of the position he plays.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Brandon Phillips vs. J.A. Happ: Just like Uggla below, Phillips doesn’t have much of a track record against the pitcher he is facing. At the same time, what he has done is  hard to ignore. In nine at-bats Phillips has five hits leading to a .556 batting average against Happ. Three of those five hits were dingers, and that has helped to push his RBI total top five in this tasty matchup.

Ryan Theriot vs. Paul Maholm: Looking for an under the radar play on Friday? If you are, it would be wise to look to the Giants’ Theriot who has had quite an extensive run of success against the lefty with the Cubs. Theriot has hit .343 with a .410 OBP in 35 at-bats against Maholm over 35 at-bats.

Dan Uggla vs. Stephen Strasburg: How in the world could I suggest starting a guy against a pitcher who has a 2.64 ERA, 1.10 WHIP an a 10.86 K/9 mark? It’s been a mere eight at-bats but Uggla has had phenomenal success against the righty from Washington with six hits including two homers leading to seven RBI. Pretty darn amazing.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Wade Miley vs. Padres: The young lefty has held his own and then some through 10 appearances this year as he has gone 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He still has a poor 2.00 K/BB ratio, that 5.50 K/9 mark is weak, and two homers in 52.1 innings – let’s just say that isn’t likely to continue. Still, in this matchup against the Padres in Petco, it’s lock and load time.

Felipe Paulino vs. Athletics: The A’s have a historically bad offense, an I’m not making that up. Paulino has a 2.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 34 Ks through 31.1 innings this season. Moreover, three of his five outings this year he has held the opponent scoreless. I’m going to ignore his lone performance against the A’s last September 5th (4.1 IP, 6 ER).

Randy Wolf vs. Pirates: Why not complete the trifecta of starters against the worst offenses in baseball? Wolf has struggled this year big time (5.73 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but he has looked better of late allowing three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. He’s also facing a Pirates club that he has gone 9-3 against in his career with 112 Ks in 124 innings. Plus, the club from Pittsburgh has the lowest average in the NL (.218), the worst OBP in baseball (.272) and has scored 17 runs less than any other club in the game (147).

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Ryan Ludwick vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Wandy has pitched well this season, and the perception is that Ludwick has really struggled this year. The truth is in the middle perhaps. Ludwick has had a lot of success against Wandy with two homer an a .314 batting average in 35 at-bats against the lefty and he’s also gone deep twice while knocking in eight runners in his last eight games.

Hanley Ramirez vs. Cole Hamels: HanRam has barely been a .250 hitter since the start of the 2011 season and he’s also hit a mere .264 against Hamels in 53 at-bats in the match up. Why in the world would I suggest paying close attention to Hanley on Friday then? Of the 14 hits that Hanley has against the lefty Ramirez has 10 doubles. Ten. That’s a pace for 100 doubles over 530 at-bats. Wow is right. Is it a stretch to think that he could lift one of those pitches into the seats?

Ichiro Suzuki vs. Gavin Floyd: Ichiro has struggled this year, at least when compared to his previous levels of excellence, but he’s pretty much looked very much like the guy we saw for most of 2011. Middling. Still, Ichiro has a track record of success against Floyd as he has hit .361 in 36 at-bats. Given that Floyd has also allowed 21 runs in his last 14.2 innings it would seem like a pretty good time to trust Ichiro.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mat Latos vs. Astros: Latos has been uneven this year, all those that own him understand that, but he’s won his last four decisions and has allowed three or fewer runs in four of his last five outings during which time his ERA has gone down from 5.97 to 4.58. He’s also struck out 18 batters while issuing only four walks in his last three starts, so as long as he can keep the ball in the park – he allowed an amazing five homers in his last start – he should have a solid outing against an Astros club that he is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP against in his career.

Ricky Nolasco vs. Phillies: Off the top it sounds a bit crazy, but think about it. Nolasco will be facing a Phillies club without Howard/Utley, Jimmy Rollins can barely hit his way out of a papersack right now,  and Carlos Ruiz is less than 100 percent physically. There’s also the fact that Nolasco has long had success against the club from Philly going 6-4 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 83.2 innings.

Edinson Volquez vs. D’backs: Volquez pitches at home Saturday, and he’s had a ton of success there this season even though his record is 1-3 (3.19 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 42 Ks in 42.1 innings). He faces a D’backs club that he held to two runs in seven innings in his second start of the year, and in his career he has 28 punchouts in 24.1 innings against the club from Arizona. He’s also allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his 11 starts this season. It’s not always pretty, sometimes he has trouble throwing strikes, but he has been able to limit the damage, for the most part, in his first year in San Diego.

CONTESTS

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided. You’ll get a chance to win cash, sometimes for free (if you are new to the site you can sign up for a Free Roll and try your hand at putting together a daily fantasy squad that could allow you to win some cash for nothing). Care to test your talents and baseball knowledge?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your crunk on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano: I feel a bit stupid suggesting you should starts Cano, it’s not like there is anyone out there who doesn’t know he’s a HOF bound second sacker, but in 20 career at-bats against the Red Sox Clay Buchholz he’s racked up nine hits for a .450 batting average.

Ryan Ludwick: I’m not a huge fan, and think the Reds made a mistake not just going with Chris Heisey, but there is no denying the track record of Ludwick against the Cubs as he’s hit .279 with 10 homers, 37 RBI an a .843 OPS in 201 at-bats. He’s been even more dominant at Wrigley hitting .349 with seven homers an a 1.041 OPS in 109 at-bats there.

Ryan Raburn: He has only 12 at-bats against Matt Harrison, but he’s been a superstar in the matchup batting .667 with two bombs, seven RBIs an a 2.026, yes that’s a two, OPS. As you read about, you did read Quick Starting Pitchers right?, I’m not a huge fan of Harrison either.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ted Lilly: In his first outing he allowed one unearned run to the Padres. He faces Houston Friday, a team he has thoroughly dominated in his career: Lilly is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.27 K/9 and a 3.50 K/BB. Toss in the fact that the Astros aren’t very good, and this is a dream matchup on paper.

And for the second straight weeks, two oldies but goodies…

Carlos Zambrano: After allowing one run to the Astros in his last outing, why not go to the well again? Big Z has a matchup with the Nats next, and he’s had a lot of success against that organization in his career with an 8-3 record, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 73 Ks in 78 career innings.

Barry Zito: Through 16 innings Zito has allowed 11 base runners (0.69 WHIP), and just two earned runs (1.13 ERA). We all know the dream will end soon, but it may last another start. Zito has a 3.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, with 30 Ks in 35.1 innings, against his opponent Friday – the Mets.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Travis Hafner: We’re only talking 12 at-bats here, and that isn’t necessarily enough data to draw any sort of lasting conclusion, but Hafner has four hits, including two homers, against the Athletics’ Brandon McCarthy. Hafner has also knocked in six runners in the matchup while also garnering two walks.

Brandon Phillips: The only thing that seems likely to stop him on Saturday is his bum wheel. In 48 career at-bats against Paul Maholm he has 17 hits, good for a .354 average an a 1.034 OPS. He’s also taken the Cubs hurler deep four times leading to nine RBI. Plus and play with this gu – as long as he is in the lineup.

Martin Prado: Off to a bit of a slow start hitting .250, Prado is a .292 career hitter. He’s also raked against the D’backs in his career going 22-for-60 leading to a .367 average and 13 RBI in 17 games played. He’s also picked up a hit in seven of his last nine games while he’s driven in four runs while scoring four times in his last two contests. Joe Saunders isn’t exactly a dominating opponent either.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mike Leake: When a guy is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against a team (the Cubs), you had better take notice. Don’t expect a lot of strikeouts, he has just 32 in 50.2 innings against the Cubs, but he should still have an effective outing.

Brandon McCarthy: Last season he went 6-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. This season he’s made three “home” starts and in that time he’s got a 2.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The matchup with the Indians isn’t a great one on paper given that the Indians offense has been humming along in the early going, but McCarthy is still a solid option given his success in Oakland and his 6-3 record and 1.30 WHIP against the Indians over 16 games, if he can avoid letting Travis Hafner beat him that is.

Mike Pelfrey: The Mets hurler gets to face the less than imposing offense of the Giants. That’s good news for the 6’7” righty who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against the Giants in six starts. He’ll also be pitching at Citi Field, a place where he has enjoyed a lot of success (19-13, 3.46 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

CONTESTS

We have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday April 20th starting at 7pm EST.  Here are the details:

Create your team with a 1 million dollar salary cap:
C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

It’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs

Follow these 2 steps to play.

1. To sign up for this, or any game with DailyJoust, simply click on the link just provided.

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Good luck!

By Ray Flowers

Deadline Deals

The trade deadline came and went. Some big names were dealt while others need not change their address labels for their mail. A few thoughts on some of the bigger names that were dealt are below.

Mike Adams, Rangers: I keep saying it – there isn’t a better right-handed reliever in baseball (1.12 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 5.44 K.BB).

Erik Bedard, Red Sox: As injury prone as any player in the game, Bedard is nearly always successful when on the hill. Just 4-7 his record figures to do a 180 with the Red Sox offense behind him. He had better pitch well though, and stay healthy, as Clay Buchholz (back) is likely done for the year.

Carlos Beltran, Giants: He has only two hits in 17 at-bats with the Giants but he figures to settle right in and be the best run producer on the club.

Michael Bourn, Braves: You know you suck, and yes I’m talking to you Astros, when you deal the best base stealer in the league (39 thefts), a guy who is hitting .303 and one who is also under contract for 2012 (arbitration eligible). His value goes up with a better lineup around him.

Doug Fister, Tigers: This guys a solid big leaguer. He has a strong 1.17 WHIP, while his ERA is also good at 3.33. You can’t blame him for his 3-12 record since the Mariners offense is just pathetic, but Fister offers little to excite in the fantasy game. He goes out and give you six innings, he’s actually done it 14-straight starts though only nine of those outings fall into the “quality start” category. His value goes up slightly with the deal since he might actually pick up a few wins.

Rafael Furcal, Cardinals: How in the world is Furcal hitting .196? Pathetic. He has hit better since the All-Star break at .217, but that’s like saying your traded in your Yugo for a Festiva. He’s still got talent and if he hits at the top of the order he has a bushel of bats behind him to knock him in.

Edwin Jackson, Cardinals: I gave my thoughts on Jackson last week in Deals a Startin. I’ll add this. I was in St. Louis when Jackson made his first start, and listening to the media and fans you’d have thought they added Bob Gibson to the staff. Jackson has a good arm, and when locked in he can be a solid option, but it seems like expectations are way out of whack with this guy.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians: From June 1-July 19th he allowed three of fewer runs in 10-straight starts. Unfortunately he’s allowed nine runs over his last two outings. His velocity is still down three mph, and moving to the AL isn’t going to help his outlook.

Derrek Lee, Pirates: Lee will replace Lyle Overbay at first, and he has been hot of late hitting .298 with a .906 OPS and 13 RBI over his last 15 games.

Ryan Ludwick, Pirates: Leaving Petco should be a big boost to his offense, but it’s not like he has been killing it all year on the road (.258/.300/.389).

Hunter Pence, Phillies: He’s having a fine year but his OBP isn’t great at .355, his SLG of .468 is only 39th amongst players with 400 plate appearances, and his BABIP is high at .365. Still, can’t fault the Phillies at all with this add though it does tank the value of Domonic Brown who was sent to Triple-A.

Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays: I gave my thoughts on Colby last week in Deals a Startin. Let’s say that I like the game, question the head, and wonder if he will ever reach the level that his talent dictates he should. Still, he just might get there in Canada where no one even knows they play baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July21, 2011

Potential Trade Targets

HITTERS: (1) Hunter Pence (2)  Ryan Ludwick (3) David DeJesus (4) Coco Crisp (5) Melky Cabrera / Jeff Francoeur (6) Carlos Beltran

PITCHERS: (1) Kevin Slowey (2) Mike Adams / Heath Bell. (3) Jason Isgrinhausen

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: PART III

In my last two posts, I discussed the team I rostered in the K-BAD experts league. In Part III of my review, I’ll give my thoughts on how the draft played out after quickly running through my final few selections.

Note: If you want to read my review of picks 1-10, click on the link to K-BAD: Part I.

If you want to read my review of picks 11-28, click on the link to K-BAD: Part II.

ROUND 21: Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
I may not have saves in abundance, but Thornton and my last pick, Ryan Madson, give me arguably two most talented setup men in the game.

ROUND 22: Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Once upon a time he went 30/25. Hell, it was just the other day really (2007). If he comes through in ’09 he could be a cheap, vastly underrated, 20/20 option.

ROUND 23: Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Seems refocused knowing his career might be on the line. Too bad the Nationals didn’t buy it as they let him go. This is what happens when you do a draft far in advance of any meaningful games.

ROUND 24: Delmon Young, OF, Twins
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
My third straight young outfielder. All three have a ton of potential, and each could be a terrific fifth outfield option this year.

ROUND 25: Rod Barajas, C, Mets
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
This late you can throw a dart. Hopefully Rod will hit 15 long balls and bat .250. If he does, I’ll be ecstatic. If not, I’ll hit the waiver-wire.

ROUND 26: Brandon Lyon, RP, Astros
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
There were certainly better relievers still available, but being that I’m weak in saves I had to take a chance on this inferior relief option.

ROUND 27: Casey Blake
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
He has no upside, but I had him as 15th best third basemen so no harm in taking him this late. See Breaking Down: Casey Blake.

ROUND 28: Brett Myers, SP, Astros
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Not a bad last pick. Seriously. If he can control the homers, in tough park for pitchers, he could return 15th round value.

Here is my team (number is round selected).

C Russell Martin 11
C Rod Barajas 25
1B Miguel Cabrera 1
2B Brian Roberts 3
3B Casey Blake 27
SS Miguel Tejada 9
MI Dan Uggla 6
CI Lance Berkman 5
OF Carl Crawford 2
OF Ichiro Suzuki 4
OF Andrew McCutchen 7
OF Ryan Ludwick 15
OF Chris Young 22
UT David Ortiz 18

P Yovani Gallardo 8
P Scott Baker 10
P James Shields 12
P Trevor Hoffman 13
P Ryan Dempster 14
P Brad Lidge 17
P Aaron Harang 19
P Ryan Madson 20
P Matt Thornton 21

Bench Rafael Furcal 16
Bench Elijah Dukes 23
Bench Delmon Young 24
Bench Brandon Lyon 26
Bench Brett Myers 28

Team Review:

* I already have my fingers crossed. When the draft took place Roberts, Berkman and Martin where totally healthy, and Dukes still had a big league job. So are the breaks of the game.

* Blake in the 27th round was a nice grab, and I’ll have Tejada as an option at the hot corner as well once season gets underway.

* Crawford and Ichiro are a dynamic duo in the OF. If McCutchen does what many expect, that is one potentially fantastic threesome. The group is light on power though, so I added Ludwick who should be a fine 5th hitter for the Cardinals. My final outfield spot will go to one of two men who could be a terrific 5th option – D. Young, C. Young (Dukes hosed me).

* My offense might be a bit light on pop but you can’t have everything when picking against astute owners in an experts league.

* My staff has as good a 5-some of hurlers as any in the league: Gallardo, Baker, Shields, Dempster and Harang. Not a “superstar” amongst them, but that is a fantastic group of arms.

* My bullpen is thin. Every time I went to grab a closer someone else did. In fact, I had only one closer heading into the 17th round. At the end of the round I had two (gulp with Lidge), but another team had three and one grabbed a 4th in 18th. Closers went way too early in this league if you ask me. I didn’t want to roster a flunky just cause they were going, so I ended up passing and grabbed two of the best set up men in the game in Madson and Thornton. In the 26th round I then grabbed Lyon who could be the full-time closer in Houston, a part time option, or a total failure. Still, in the 26th, it was a risk worth taking.

* My staff is really strong top to bottom. I’ll need some help in the saves category, hopefully I’ll be able to snag one of those guys off waivers since there are always at least a handful of guys who emerge, but I should be sitting pretty in wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

Random Thoughts:
* Surprised to see these power arms not drafted: Luke Gregerson, Daniel Bard, Mike Adams, C.J. Wilson and George Sherrill.

* No one took the steady Andy Pettitte, or last year’s ground ball star Joel Pineiro.

* Three Cubs outfielders were left on waivers: Xavier Nady, Kosuke Fukudome and Marlon Byrd.

* Youngsters Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin also went teamless. Each offers some upside and should have been rostered in my opinion.

* At second, Kelly Johnson and Mark Ellis are free agents. I would be shocked if both don’t end up as top-20 options at second, and both have a chance to sneak into the top-15.

* No one bought into Russell Branyan repeating his effort from last season now that he is with the Indians, so he was left undrafted. Across the diamond, here are a few of the third basemen that went undrafted as well: Mark Teahen, Mike Lowell, Brandon Inge, Juan Uribe and Adam Kennedy.

I’ll keep you posted throughout the year as to how my team stacks up. Let’s just hope there aren’t more injuries prior to the season starting – there is nothing more frustrating that losing because your guys are on the shelf.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Part II

For the second straight year, I was invited to play in an expert’s league by the folks over at KFFL. Nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, the league pits 11 of the top minds in the game against one flunky (that would be me). I thought I would give my analysis of the team I was able to roster in the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league with 28 rounds (I had the ninth pick in the draft which was completed near the start of March).

Note: If you want to read my review of picks 1-10, click on the link to K-BAD – Part I.

ROUND 11: Russell Martin, C, Dodgers
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Maybe the extra 20 lbs will allow him to drive the ball deep again. He wasn’t as bad as it looked last year, and is still a top-7 option in my mind – or at least he was until he was injured (this pick was made before his ill health hit). Martin is progressing well and may not miss more than a handful of games to start the year.

ROUND 12: James Shields, SP, Rays
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Shields was the last, reliable, top shelf option left on my draft board amongst starting pitchers, so I’m very comfortable with him as my third starter.

ROUND 13: Trevor Hoffman, RP, Brewers
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Safe, old and boring, all Hoffman does is rack up 30-saves year after year. In each of his last 14 healthy seasons he has hit that level, so there is no reason to think he will produce anything less this season.

ROUND 14: Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
The most skilled starting pitcher left on my board or a middling OF? I decided to roster a fourth solid starter since no one stood out in the outfield.

ROUND 15: Ryan Ludwick
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
Immediately after making the pick, I slightly regretted it. Not because Ludwick will fail in 2010, he’ll hit behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the center of a powerful Cardinals’ lineup, but because Mike Gonzalez was taken with the next pick and I need save help.

ROUND 16: Rafael Furcal
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
A risk since he stopped running last season. Still he is a decent starting option at short, and he will allow me to use Tejada at third base once the season gets underway.

ROUND 17: Brad Lidge, RP, Phillies
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
What, you think he won’t rebound in 2010? I’m not sure either, but I had only one reliever at this point so I had to take a chance that his elbow and knee will be healthy enough for him to return to a high level of effectiveness if his BABIP returns to normal.

ROUND 18: David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
I agonized a bit here, but at this point a 25+HR, 90+RBI guy isn’t all that bad, and I needed the pop based on the rest of my lineup.

ROUND 19: Aaron Harang, SP, Reds
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
The results weren’t there last season for Harang, but he isn’t that far off his 2006-07 form that he should be getting this little respect. He’s a great 5th starter for my club.

ROUND 20: Ryan Madson, RP, Phillies
TEAM: BaseballGuys.com
As talented as any reliever left on the board, he is my handcuff in case Lidge isn’t ready to go because I only had two closers at this point of the draft in Lidge and Hoffman.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Signings, Jan.19, 2010

A whole bushel of players agreed to one year deals with their teams in the past 36 hours. Which signings made sense? Which were bad idea? I’ll give my thoughts on each of the players listed below in today’s Around the Horn piece.

Twins: J.J. Hardy
Marlins: Jorge Cantu, Leo Nunez, Dan Uggla
Rays: Jason Bartlett
Cardinals: Ryan Ludwick
Rockies: Huston Street
Rangers: Josh Hamilton
Brewers: Carlos Gomez, Rickie Weeks
Dodgers: Hong-Chi Kuo, James Loney, George Sherrill

By Ray Flowers