Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.7

Another week, another series of injuries, another series of desperation moves on the waiver-wire. Well that’s not quite accurate, but the fact is that my fantasy baseball teams are struggling with injuries, just like many of yours. We’re all doing the best we can to piece together a competitive squad until health returns. Here are my moves in free agency Monday, May 13th.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): Let’s go through the DL’d guys first – Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Cameron Maybin, Joel Hanrahan, Zack Greinke. I released Eric Sogard and in his place picked up Maicer Izturis. Need help up the middle badly with Jeter still on the shelf and Emilio Bonifacio forgetting that a bat is something you use to hit the baseball. Maicer has eight hits in his last six games. Two start hurler Ricky Nolasco joins the fold this week at the cost of Hanrahan who is done for the year. I purchased Izturis for $1 and went a little heavier on Nolasco at $4.
Notable bids: Heath Bell ($38 of $100), Scott Kazmir ($16), Ubaldo Jimenez ($8), Julio Teheran ($6)

LABR (12 team, AL-only): I made the huge move of adding Hank Congar for $4. Got tired of looking at Hector Gimenez doing little to nothing as my second catcher. Congar has been no great shakes, but he’s hitting .250 with an RBI over the past two weeks, and that’s actually worth adding. I know.
Notable bids: Sean Rodriguez ($2), Wilkin Ramirez ($2), Elliott Johnson ($2)

FSTA (13 team mixed): The following players are on the DL for my club: Coco Crisp, Justin Maxwell, J.J. Putz, Hanley Ramirez, Sergio Santos, Joel Hanrahan, Kevin Youkilis and Chris Young. It’s a shock I’m in 8th place out of 13 teams. I dropped Sean Marshall and added two start hurt Ricky Nolasco ($17 out of $1,000). I was outbid on Junichi Tazawa (I bid $85). I therefore ended up with Jared Burton ($26). Burton is likely the fall back if that side issue for Glen Perkins becomes something significant. Burton has a 1.69 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 18 Ks in 16 innings this season. Finally, James Loney is part of my club now ($38). Probably overpaid, but I needed something.
Notable bids: Junichi Tazawa ($208), Hector Santiago ($36), Scott Kazmir ($17), Colby Lewis ($17), Scott Feldman ($11), David Murphy ($11).

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): Stephen Drew, join the club as I finally gave up on John Axford. Had to do it given the injuries I have. James McDonald is on the DL – I added Chris Tillman for $4 to take his roster spot this week as well. Still leaves me with Austin Jackson, Neil Walker, Rajai Davis, Kevin Youkilis, Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Putz and Zack Greinke on the DL. I feel your pain everyone.
Notable bids: The big expenditure was… Heath Bell ($22). Shocker. Junichi Tazawa was the next most expensive guy on waivers at $13. The only other player in double-digits was Marcell Ozuna ($11). No one else went for more than $5 – Kevin Slowey and Julio Teheran.

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire. I added James Loney at the cost of Joel Hanrahan who is dont for the year.
Notable bids: Andy Dirks, Neil Walker, Bud Norris, Lyle Overbay, Francisco Liriano and Mitch Moreland were added.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): Hanley Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Andrew Bailey, Gordon Beckham, James McDonald are on the DL. Dropped McDonald and added Scott Kazmir ($22). I have no faith in Kazmir, he hasn’t thrown 160 innings since 2007, but he’s rolling his last few starts and I need the innings. Beckham went adios and I added two start Week 7 mound ace Ricky Nolasco ($14). Nolasco has pitched well this season with a 3.72 ERA and 1.116 WHIP through eight starts. I also dropped Eric Sogard who has done nothing since I added him, and in return Will Venable ($27) joined the club. Venable, pretty quietly, is hitting .360 with three homers and four steals the past 12 games. He’s got five bombs and seven steals on the season.
Notable bids: Heath Bell ($171), Junichi Tazawa ($121), Jeff Locke ($41), Trevor Plouffe ($35), Mitch Moreland ($30).

FANBALL (13 team mixed): Jayson Werth, Kevin Youkilis, Cameron Maybin, J.J. Putz, Vinnie Pestano, James McDonald – all on the DL. Had to make a move on the hill, don’t know how long Putz will be down, so I dropped McDonald and added David Phelps ($2) who is a 2-time starter this week. I also added Ryan Raburn ($3), there he is again (I seem to be adding the flunky in every league. Let’s hope he continues to be effective even though the best is behind him). Pestano went bye-bye.
Notable bids: Heath Bell ($35) – there was another bid at $34. Mine was $19. Junichi Tazawa ($13). Scott Kazmir ($10). Kelly Johnson ($10), Francisco Liriano ($6).

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, May 7

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Russell Martin
2. Wilson Ramos

Martin has gone 6-for-13 with a couple of RBIs against Aaron Harang. Martin’s also hitting .308 the past week, and Harang is sporting an 8.68 ERA this season with the Mariners.

Ramos has five hits an a homer in 13 at-bats against Anibal Sanchez. He’s only got four hits in 16 at-bats since he returned to action, so he’s not exactly locked in.

FIRST BASE
1. Billy Butler
2. Garrett Jones

Butler has five hits in six at-bats against Wei-Yin Chen. Two of those hits are homers. He’s also driven in four runs. The last week he’s also started to hit a bit with a .286 average.

Jones has had no success against lefties, he basically sits against all of them, but he’s done a fine job versus righties. He faces Aaron Harang whom he has six hits in 10 at-bats against, including a big fly.

SECOND BASE
1. Jedd Gyorko
2. Ryan Raburn

Gyorko is finally hitting after a bit of a slow start. Over the past week he’s hit .370 with three homers, six RBIs and five runs scored. He faces the far from imposing Alex Sanabia Tuesday.

The AL’s reigning Player of the Week, Raburn has hit .476 with two homers and six RBIs in his last 22 at-bats. He faces lefty Tommy Milone Tuesday night.

THIRD BASE
1. Chase Headley
2. Luis Valbuena

Headley is up to .299 thanks to an 11-game hitting streak, and he’s driven in six runs in his last seven games. He’s also batting .326 versus righties this season, a good thing since he faces Alex Sanabia who just so happens to be a righty.

Valbuena is your cheap play of the day. He’s batting .286 against righties this season, and he’s hitting .342 at home. He plays in Chicago Tuesday while taking on righty Lance Lynn.

SHORTSTOP
1. Andrelton Simmons
2. Starlin Castro

Simmons takes on the Reds’ Bailey, and he’s streaking right now. Simmons is hitting .360 the past week, but even more impressive is the total of three big flies, seven RBIs and six runs scored. He’s rolling.

.300′s abound. Castro is hitting .300 the last seven days. He’s hitting .329 at home. He’s batting .385 vs. Lance Lynn (5-for-13). He’s pushed his average up to .277 on the season.

OUTFIELD
1. Nick Markakis
2. Matt Holliday

Markakis has enjoyed success against the hot Ervin Santana with a .294 average and 1.000 OPS in 34 at-bats. Markakis has also gone deep three times while driving in 10 runs against the righty.

Holliday is 6-for-18, a .333 average, with two bombs and four RBIs against Travis Wood. Holliday has always killed it against the Cubs with a .305 average and .877 OPS in 73 career games.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Matt Harvey
2. Anibal Sanchez
3. Tim Lincecum
4. C.J. Wilson

Harvey is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Nothing bad to say about the young righty who is taking on the White Sox.

Sanchez is 8-0 with a 1.97 ERA against the Nationals In his career. The current Nationals club has also hit .195 with a .541 OPS against Sanchez in 195 at-bats.

Lincecum is 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, not to mention 77 Ks in 75 innings, in 11 starts against the Phillies. He’s also allowed just one homer, and seven runs, over his last three starts.

Wilson is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA and two saves against the Astros. He also beat the club from Houston earlier this season with one run allowed over six innings on April 14th.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.6

I’ve been sick. So sick that I was in the hospital for three days. I’m feeling better now, but apparently my brain is still a bit scrambled. Just check out some of the crazy bids I placed this week in the free agent pool.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): As you know, I’ve been sick for a week now, so sick I was in the hopsital for three days. I’m blaming the residual there for my lack of bid on Dee Gordon. I need a middle infielder badly in this league so I should have been more aggressive with the speed demon from LA. Instead I went small money and added Ruben Tejada ($1) and Ryan Raburn ($1). Tejada is merely a stop gap at SS, Derek Jeter missing half the season is killing me. As for Raburn, why not take a chance? He replaced Eric Sogard in my lineup (I told you I was hurting up the middle). Hopefully Raburn can remain in the daily lineup which would be a nice boost for me. I let go Mike Leake and Billy Hamilton to make the moves. Given my injury issues, I couldn’t wait on Hamilton any longer.
Notable bids: Dee Gordon $30), Hector Santiago ($5), Marcell Ozuna ($3)

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

LABR (12 team, AL-only): Chris Nelson came over to the AL to join the Yankees, and now he is part of my club for $7. But Ray, why big do high? Well, here’s why. In the last week Chris Young and Kevin Youkilis were both sent to the DL with injuries. I needed at-bats. I went for it.
Notable bids: J.B. Shuck ($5), Sean Doolittle ($5), Freddy Garcias ($3), Jeff Baker ($3), Adam Rosales ($2)

FSTA (13 team mixed): Here are the players I have on the DL in this league – Matt Adam, Coco Crisp, Justin Maxwell, Hanley Ramirez (he was back for half a week), Sergio Santos, Kevin Youkilis and Chris Young. Think my team is in trouble, maybe? I added Ryan Raburn ($89) to help out up the middle and then Justin Grimm on the hill ($9).
Notable bids: Marcell Ozuna ($147 out of $1,000), Kevin Slowey ($59), Trevor Plouffe ($56), Oswaldo Arcia ($25), Jake Westbrook ($22), Shaun Marcum ($19)

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): Jeremy Guthrie keeps on getting it done. I sent Chris Nelson packing to add Guthrie ($2). I also let Dayan Viciedo go for Ryan Ruburn ($3). This is the league, if you will remember, that HanRam hosed me. I then spent big on Neil Walker when he was dropped, but of course he too is now on the DL. Raburn, and his second base eligibility, is a nice add for me.
Notable bids: Nolan Arenado ($31), Vernon Wells ($17), Yuniesky Betancourt ($4).

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire. I had to drop Kevin Youkilis. Just too many injured players on this club to hold on. I also let Kendrys Morales go. Why you ask? Because I made two trades. Trade #1 saw me give up Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo and Kenley Jansen, a big haul, but in return I received Matt Cain, Cliff Lee, Andre Ethier and Welington Castillo. I also added, in deal #2, Chris Sale and Corey Hart for Tony Cingrani. Granted it sure seems like I worked over the other fella, I added Lee/Cain/Sale in the course of four days, and I got Hart to replace Youkilis as a boost at first base when he is eligible.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): I added the guy I seemingly added in every league, Ryan Raburn ($46). I don’t think he’s going to star this year, but I’m just plugging holes like the boy who stuck his thumb in the dike (I dropped David Robertson). I moved on from Jarrod Saltalamacchia at catcher and added Russell Martin for $17. I also released Joaquin Benoit who was the Tigers closer for about 10 days before he was replaced with Jose Valverde. Chris Tillman ($13) is now a proud member of my rotation.
Notable bids: Dee Gordon ($182), A.J. Griffin ($86), Marcell Ozuna ($75), Yonder Alonso ($64), Seth Smith ($23)

FANBALL (13 team mixed): Anthony Rendon has been demoted, and we may not see him again for a while (barring injury). I let Mr. Rendon go in favor of James Loney. I know that’s a bit nuts, adding Loney, but did you realize he is hitting .398 this season? Seriously, look it up. I also placed Kevin Youkilis on the DL and added Jordan Pacheco to help ou at the third base spot. Woof is right.
Notable bids: Dee Gordon ($40 out of $100), Juan Pierre ($11), Carlos Martinez ($9), Justin Grimm ($8).

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Talking FAAB

This week on the “Fantasy Beat” Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray introduce FAAB budget and teach you how to manage your money from a season long perspective. The guys talk about some of the on fire lesser-known players in relation to FAAB spending.

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your crunk on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano: I feel a bit stupid suggesting you should starts Cano, it’s not like there is anyone out there who doesn’t know he’s a HOF bound second sacker, but in 20 career at-bats against the Red Sox Clay Buchholz he’s racked up nine hits for a .450 batting average.

Ryan Ludwick: I’m not a huge fan, and think the Reds made a mistake not just going with Chris Heisey, but there is no denying the track record of Ludwick against the Cubs as he’s hit .279 with 10 homers, 37 RBI an a .843 OPS in 201 at-bats. He’s been even more dominant at Wrigley hitting .349 with seven homers an a 1.041 OPS in 109 at-bats there.

Ryan Raburn: He has only 12 at-bats against Matt Harrison, but he’s been a superstar in the matchup batting .667 with two bombs, seven RBIs an a 2.026, yes that’s a two, OPS. As you read about, you did read Quick Starting Pitchers right?, I’m not a huge fan of Harrison either.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ted Lilly: In his first outing he allowed one unearned run to the Padres. He faces Houston Friday, a team he has thoroughly dominated in his career: Lilly is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.27 K/9 and a 3.50 K/BB. Toss in the fact that the Astros aren’t very good, and this is a dream matchup on paper.

And for the second straight weeks, two oldies but goodies…

Carlos Zambrano: After allowing one run to the Astros in his last outing, why not go to the well again? Big Z has a matchup with the Nats next, and he’s had a lot of success against that organization in his career with an 8-3 record, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 73 Ks in 78 career innings.

Barry Zito: Through 16 innings Zito has allowed 11 base runners (0.69 WHIP), and just two earned runs (1.13 ERA). We all know the dream will end soon, but it may last another start. Zito has a 3.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, with 30 Ks in 35.1 innings, against his opponent Friday – the Mets.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Travis Hafner: We’re only talking 12 at-bats here, and that isn’t necessarily enough data to draw any sort of lasting conclusion, but Hafner has four hits, including two homers, against the Athletics’ Brandon McCarthy. Hafner has also knocked in six runners in the matchup while also garnering two walks.

Brandon Phillips: The only thing that seems likely to stop him on Saturday is his bum wheel. In 48 career at-bats against Paul Maholm he has 17 hits, good for a .354 average an a 1.034 OPS. He’s also taken the Cubs hurler deep four times leading to nine RBI. Plus and play with this gu – as long as he is in the lineup.

Martin Prado: Off to a bit of a slow start hitting .250, Prado is a .292 career hitter. He’s also raked against the D’backs in his career going 22-for-60 leading to a .367 average and 13 RBI in 17 games played. He’s also picked up a hit in seven of his last nine games while he’s driven in four runs while scoring four times in his last two contests. Joe Saunders isn’t exactly a dominating opponent either.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mike Leake: When a guy is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against a team (the Cubs), you had better take notice. Don’t expect a lot of strikeouts, he has just 32 in 50.2 innings against the Cubs, but he should still have an effective outing.

Brandon McCarthy: Last season he went 6-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. This season he’s made three “home” starts and in that time he’s got a 2.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The matchup with the Indians isn’t a great one on paper given that the Indians offense has been humming along in the early going, but McCarthy is still a solid option given his success in Oakland and his 6-3 record and 1.30 WHIP against the Indians over 16 games, if he can avoid letting Travis Hafner beat him that is.

Mike Pelfrey: The Mets hurler gets to face the less than imposing offense of the Giants. That’s good news for the 6’7” righty who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against the Giants in six starts. He’ll also be pitching at Citi Field, a place where he has enjoyed a lot of success (19-13, 3.46 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

CONTESTS

We have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday April 20th starting at 7pm EST.  Here are the details:

Create your team with a 1 million dollar salary cap:
C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

It’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs

Follow these 2 steps to play.

1. To sign up for this, or any game with DailyJoust, simply click on the link just provided.

2. Watch the live scoring on DailyJoust to see how your team stacks up against the competition.

Good luck!

By Ray Flowers

Friday’s Fantasy Flight

No, I won’t be sampling wines for you on this day, I’ll just be taking a look around the league touching on Ryan Braun’s suspension, CC Sabathia’s lack of girth, Phil Hughes hype, Tim Wakefield’s retirement and more. I know, how exciting.

There is still no resolution in the Ryan Braun PED case. I don’t know about you, but I get the feeling that the longer this drags on the more likely it is that the 50 game suspension is going to be reduced.

Gary Carter passed away yesterday at age 57. Carter finished his career with 324 homers, 1,225 RBI, 2,092 hits, 11 All-Star game appearances and a spot in the Hall of Fame. The world is worse off with his passing.

I’m still sitting on that A.J. Burnett article I wrote a week ago. Yankees, trade the guy so that I can finally post this sucker (apparently the Yankees will pay $20 of the $33 million left on his deal, but because there is money involved the Commissioners Office has to get involved before the deal with the Pirates can become official).

Don’t buy the Phil Hughes hype that is already coming out of Yankees beat writers. For my thoughts on the hurler see his Player Profile.

Did you see this insane story that the Jim Leyland plans on getting Brandon Inge some work at second base this spring? Jimmy, you are kidding right? Inge, at one time a plus defender at third base, has never played second base as a professional. I understand that the Tigers might be non-plussed by guys like Danny Worth, Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn, but Brandon Inge? Over the last five seasons Inge has hit better than .240 just a single time and he batted .197 last year proving that he simply isn’t a major league caliber hitter any more. As for Raburn, he too has issues, but he finished on a tear last year hitting .341 with a .967 OPS over his last 45 games. Why the team wouldn’t give him a shot instead of Inge is beyond me. Don’t look for Inge to play second base — this story seems like sheer folly to me.

Last night went great by the way. There’s no telling what the weekend might hold. If I didn’t tell you all, 2012 is the Year of Ray…

Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters both focused more on training their bodies than throwing this offseason. Both felt that after they made 79 and 85 appearances that building up their stamina an bodies was as important as anything. Venters reportedly gained about seven pounds of muscle. In a related news story I curled a 10 lbs. weight yesterday in my garage.

It’s that time of year, and we’re getting the ‘he reported in great shape’ reports again. Here’s one. CC Sabathia has lost a lot of weight this offseason according to Buster Olney. That’s good news as he was threatening to play Godzilla in the remake with only green paint on since his girth wasn’t in need of a costume.

THE AARP CROWD

Jason Varitek hasn’t decided if he will retire. Let me make it easy for you Jason – hang em up. You’re still a highly respected signal caller, but your defensive acumen is on the wane, and the last time you hit .240 was 2007. Varitek has hit .256 in his career with 193 homers and 757 RBI in more than 1,500 games played.

Tim Wakefield has decided to retire. Wakefield won 200 games in his career and saved 22 in over 3,200 innings. He was never an elite fantasy option, but he won 16 games twice, on two other occasions he also won 17 games, and from 1995 through 2011 he tossed less than 140 innings just one time (129.2 in 2009). I wish someone would teach me the knuckleball. Let’s hope that scouts don’t push knucklers out of the game forever – they give us hope that we could pitch in the big leagues.

Brandon Webb is throwing off flat ground. I wish him the best, but he’s through. Webb threw four innings in 2009 then none in 2010 and 2011. It’s a sad end to what was shaping up to be an excellent career. From 2005-08 an average Webb season resulted in 18 wins, a 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 181 Ks and 232 innings pitched. To say that he was a fantasy beast is a vast understatement.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profiles: 2011 Review

Most people like to brag about their successes, but few stand accountable when they screw things up. I’m not one of those people. More times than not I’d like to think I’m right, but there are also times where I clearly miss the mark.

In the section of my website titled PLAYER PROFILES, you can find all the 2011 Player Reviews I wrote. In the piece today I’ll review my recommendations. While you can review the whole reports if you click on the link above, I’ll truncate things today by quoting only a section of my reviews (in italics), before giving my thoughts on how things turned out.

Today, I will look at the hitters I reviewed. Tomorrow I’ll take a look at the pitchers.

NOTE: I will grade myself on the scale of single, double, triple, home run.

Jose Bautista – .302-43-103-105-9
“Can he keep up his current pace? I can say with 100 percent certainty that he cannot… There is no way he hits .370, .350, or even .330… why is everyone so willing to throw out logic and common sense when it comes to Jose Bautista?”

Bautista had a phenomenal season, better than I thought he would as he posted a second straight 40-100-100 season while leading baseball with a 1.056 OPS. So I was wrong. Period. Still he did score less runs, knock in fewer runs and have fewer RBI than he did in 2010. At the same time, I was totally right about his production slowing. Bautista hit only 12 homers with a .257 batting average over his final 65 games.
DOUBLE

Justin Smoak: .234-15-55-38-0
“Smoak appears likely to be a mixed league asset this year at the corner infield position. At the same time he doesn’t appear likely to break out this season.”

Injuries killed Smoak this season, and he seemed to have forgotten how to hit in the second half as he had three homers and 12 RBI, with a .661 OPS, over his final 39 games.
SINGLE

Brett Wallace: .259-5-29-37-1
“A valuable NL-only option, be careful not to overestimate his value in mixed leagues because of his hot start.” He was hitting 367 over 23 games at the time the piece was written.

I knew he would regress, but even I ‘m surprised by how much he did. Shocked actually. He barely ended up having any value even as a corner infield option in NL-only leagues.
DOUBLE

Willie Bloomquist: .266-4-26-44-20
“…he is not a league average performer in batting average, OBP or SLG… Even with his amazing start, which I give him full props for, there is no way that I’m counting on a difference making season from Bloomquist.” He was leading baseball in steals at the time the article was written

Come on. Did anyone other than Kay Adams really think I was gonna be wrong here?
HOME RUN

Ryan Raburn: .256-14-49-53-1
“Ryan Raburn is an end game grab in mixed leagues as an outfielder. If he happens to qualify at second base he becomes a mid round grab. Either way he figures to produce solid numbers, but I would hold off in expecting him to blow it up in 2011.”

His average dipped a bit, it was in the .280′s in 2009-10, but he was basically the exact same guy he had been the previous two seasons. Of course, it was a season of two halves for Raburn as he had a .213 average an a .609 OPS in the first half and a .341 average and .967 OPS after the All-Star break.
DOUBLE

David DeJesus: .240-10-46-60-4
“Is DeJesus a starter in mixed leagues with five outfielders? Possibly, but only barely. Is DeJesus a starter in AL-only leagues with three outfielders? You bet your rear he is. It’s all about putting players in position to succeed…”

I was right about DeJesus having value in AL-only leagues, but I was shocked at how poorly he performed. Still, do you know how many AL outfielders hit 10 homers with 45 RBI and 60 runs scored? The answer is only 21.
DOUBLE

Nick Swisher: .260-23-85-81-2
“I’d look for him to return to his career level in batting average while continuing the trend that has seen him hit 24 homers in four of five seasons. He’s also knocked in 80-runs each of the past two years while scoring more than 80 in 5-straight, so with that you have your baseline of what to expect in 2011.”

After hitting .288 in 2011 Swisher hit .260 this season, six points clear of his career .254 mark. He fell just short of 24 homers, but one, though he did hit 80 RBI and runs scored. You can’t get more dead on with a prediction that I did here.
HOME RUN

Adrian Gonzalez: .338-27-117-108-1
“…Fenway really doesn’t boost the power numbers of left-handed batters at all… I have him at 9th at the position. Is that too low? I’ll freely admit that it might be, by a lot. Still, I’d take Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard ahead of him with no problem. I think you have to also toss Prince Fielder into that mix…”

Can you be right while also being totally wrong at the same time? Gonzalez hit only 27 homers, a 5-year low, but that was all I was right about. Gonzalez killed it all year in a fantastic season for the BoSox. I was wrong. Still, I would caution expecting a repeat in 2012 in the batting average category. He hit .045 points above his career mark despite a normal 21.2 percent line drive rate (career 21.0) as his BABIP skyrocketed by .058 points.
SINGLE

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 12, 2011

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

You ask, I answer. Here are some of my thoughts on the questions that I receive all week at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Do you see Drew Stubbs coming back in the second half? He’s been terrible lately.
– @acase22

Perception isn’t always reality.

All of us, at one time or another, get sucked into the sample size morass, yet very few of us emerge from it with our senses intact. Example. Emilio Bonifacio may be the most valuable player in the fantasy game in the month of July as he’s hitting .441 with eight steals and 10 runs scored in nine games. So you pick up Bonifacio, ride him until he returns to being the below average hitter he has always been (.259/.319/.333 for his career) and move on. The problem is, most of the time in just such a scenario you don’t realize that the minor player is hot until they’ve been that way for two weeks, so by the time you actually make the move to pick them up they’re already tailing off. It’s why, more times than not, going with the more skilled player results in a better outcome than trying to play the hot hand over and over again. Two weeks or even a month just isn’t that long when the season goes on for six months.

As for Stubbs, he is a highly skilled, albeit flawed, player. There’s no disputing that he has struggled of late as he’s hitting .206  over his last 10 games, has gone 14 contests without a homer, and the last time he stole a base was June 27th, 13 games ago. But back to our old friend sample size. Let’s look past his work the past three weeks and compare his season long pace this year to the numbers he produced last year.

2010: .255-22-77-91-30
2011: .250-19-56-103-40

It might be hard to believe because he’s struggled so much of late, but Stubbs is actually on pace to have a slightly better fantasy season this year than last because of the addition of the steals and runs which help to negate the loss in homers and RBI.

If you drafted Stubbs expecting him to hit .280, you were fooling yourself. If you drafted him thinking he would be as consistent as the sun rising and falling, you were fooling yourself. Stubbs is an all or nothing type hitter who strikes out too much, and therefore has long stretches of ineffectiveness, but as long as he keeps up his year long pace his numbers will be just fine at years end.

Just saw that Ryan Raburn hit .315 with 13 homers last year in the 2nd half, better than Robinson Cano’s .299 and 13 effort.
– @CUTESalad

I know this isn’t a question, but I’ll use it as a springboard to mention something that you should all be made aware of – first and second half splits usually mean little. But you’re going to say ‘Player A hits .050 points higher in the second half, how could you not care about that?’ My response is – it’s totally random. Why not choose May 3rd through June 29th as the sample size to review? Because it’s ugly to look at. Using the All-Star game as a dividing line makes all the sense in the world because it’s a natural break point. However, that’s all it is – a natural break point. Let me give you an example.

Let’s say Player A is a .250 hitter in the first half, but a .300 hitter in the second half. If you saw an article pointing that out, your natural inclination would be to add that player right now. But should you? Let’s say that Player A had exactly 250 at-bats each of the six years he has been in the league in the second half. Again, let’s postulate that he is a .300 hitter in the second half. What if I told you the following hitting line would give you a total of .300 for a second half average despite looking pretty scary?

.250, .350, .375, .225, .335, .265

Those totals would net you an average of .300, but as you can tell, two of the years Player A was well below average, and one season he was league average at best. If you get the player who hits .375 you win your league. If you get the guy who hits .225, well, fantasy football will start soon (we all hope). Also, don’t forget about sample size. Make sure there is enough data at your disposal to truly ferret out what is going on as two seasons of splits isn’t likely to give you a crystal clear outlook on the situation.

Be very careful not to buy into a number without checking out the data behind that number. As much as I love numbers, even I know that they can be deceiving at times.

Mike Napoli’s back. Will he get more playing time?
– @zumbahlenm

Napoli’s usage over the years is one of the more vexing situations in the game. Year after year the guy flat out mashes, yet his manager never seems to have confidence in him. He’s not the greatest defensive catcher in the game, though his Catchers Earned Run Average (CERA) says otherwise (he’s tops amongst all catchers in baseball who have appeared in 25 games behind the plate), but his bat is elite in terms of power. Napoli has hit a mere .232 this season, but his OPS is .873, fourth at the position amongst fellas with 180 plate appearances. He’s also powered 12 homers with 33 RBI for the Rangers in just 155 at-bats. That’s a pace that would net him 36 homers and 99 RBI over 465 at-bats. Why isn’t someone willing to use him at catcher, first and DH to give him 500 at-bats? I guess no team in baseball could use 30 homers.

Honestly, with the way that the Rangers have used him all year, I don’t have much faith that their suddenly going to start running him out there every day. The best way for that to happen would likely be if he was dealt to a team that understands the talents he possesses.

I have Logan Morrison. Matt Joyce is available. Swap them?
– @hedmojave

Remember at the top when I said perception isn’t always reality. The perception is that Joyce started out hot and is now a dud, while LoMo is a better all-around hitter. However, is that true?

One thing is completely clear, Joyce was phenomenal, and then poor – there is no dispute there. Joyce hit .370 with nine homers over his first 51 games, and since then he’s hit .163 with three homers. Yikes is right. LoMo has also struggled recently. After hitting .320 over his first 32 games he’s hit .221 over his last 37 games. Still, I bet it would surprise many of you out there to learn that Joyce still bests LoMo in runs, batting average, OBP, SLG and OPS.

Joyce: .290-12-41-45-5 with a .351 OBP, .513 SLG, .864 OPS
LoMo: .267-12-42-29-1 with a .343 OBP, .489 SLG, .832 OPS

Surprising isn’t it?

So who would I take rest of the way? You got a coin to flip? I’d go with Morrison, but I admit that it’s quite possible that the numbers of the two outfielders this season will end up being pretty similar.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

MLB Mailbag: March 31, 2011

I’m gonna switch it up a bit today in honor of the start of the 2011 season. Instead of going in depth on a couple of questions, I’m going to answer some quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

12 team 5×5 mixed league. Kila Ka’aihue or Mark Trumbo?
– @truesportsfan

No team scares the bejesus out of me more than the Royals who never, and I mean never, seem to have a consistent plan. Take the case of Alex Gordon. He’s been demoted to the minors, asked to switch positions, and basically marginalized by the team. He goes to spring training this year, tears it up at the dish, and now seems likely to open the year in the third hole in the batting order. That makes total sense to me.

Ka’aihue should have been playing full-time in Kansas City last year. With Eric Hosmer coming quickly, the Royals need to determine if they truly have something in Kila since both guys play first base (and don’t forget about Billy Butler who really should be a DH). Kila has 25-30 homer pop, and the young man knows the strike zone (last year he had 88 walks and 69 Ks at Triple-A). He has the exact kind of patient/power approach that teams crave at first base. His future appears to be pretty bright after a strong spring and the Royals finally deciding to commit to him as a full-time player.

Trumbo was a monster at Triple-A last year (.299-36-122), and has looked capable of providing a ton of power this season if we look at his spring training numbers (.297-6-20 with a .978 OPS in 25 games). At the same time, I worry about where he will play once Kendrys Morales returns to action (potentially by mid to late April). The issue is this – the Angels have one to many players for 1B/OF/DH. For those five spots they have six guys: Trumbo, Morales, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Peter Bourjos. The key to Trumbo’s playing time is likely Bourjos. If he hits enough to get on base and use his 40+ stolen base wheels he’ll be in the lineup everyday (I didn’t even mention his defense which some consider to be as good as any outfielder in baseball) leaving Trumbo without a consistent spot in the lineup.

If choosing between these two first basemen I’d take Kila.

People seem down on Ryan Franklin. Would you swap him for Joel Hanrahan or Drew Storen?
– @Cwhitney1

Far too many people seem reluctant to tab Hanrahan this year, and I just don’t get it. Just compare his numbers versus Franklin last season.

Hanrahan: 12.92 K/9, 3.85 K/BB, 1.05 GB/FB
Franklin: 5.82 K/9, 4.20 K/BB, 1.15 GB/FB

Everything being equal, I’ll take the guy who strikes out twice as many guys and doesn’t rely on smoke and mirrors to get outs.

Storen has looked completely lost at times this spring, and the plan in Washington right now is to go with some sort of committee approach which could be led by Sean Burnett. Do yourself a favor and grab Hanrahan. It might now work out, but he is the hurler I’d take without question (for more on why that is see How to Evaluate Relievers).

With Brad Lidge out for a couple months who’s the safer pick – Ryan Madson or Jose Contreras?
– @tjaden_buster

Madson is by far the “safer” selection (see Radiant Relievers). However, apparently no one in the Phillies organization realizes that fact as he has constantly taken a backseat to Brad Lidge for 9th inning work in recent years. With the news about the shoulder injury with Lidge, one that could keep him out of action well into June,  that means Madson will finally be given the chance to close, right? Actually, no. It appears almost certain that the Phillies will call on Jose Contreras to take over closing duties. Contreras was dominant last year with more than a K per inning and an impressive 3.56 K/BB mark, but he is also “reportedly” 39 years old, had never posted a K/BB mark above 2.44 (albeit as a starter), and has four career saves. Contreras appears likely to have more early season value, but Madson is still the “safer” play based on his skill set.

Should I keep Justin Morneau at $18 in a 6×5 mixed. $260 budget? OPS is our 6th batting category.
– @frankdepino

I don’t have much faith in Morneau. He might go out and hit 25 homers with 100 RBI, but it’s a huge risk as he is still working his way back from a concussion. People seem to be thinking he is going to pick right up from last years level of production (.345-18-56 in 81 games), but I’m just not sold. First, he has a career .286 average and has only three seasons in his career over .275 if you include last season. Second, though his OPS was tremendous last year at 1.055, he’s only posted a mark over .880 one time in a full season (.934 in 2006). Third, and most obvious, is his health – will he be able to play everyday? Personally I wouldn’t have spent that much on Morneau, there’s just too much risk for me, but if he plays 145 games he’ll surely produce $18 worth of production.

Ryan Raburn is a better pick up than Logan Morrison?
– @mattextreme

Raburn is a player everyone seems really hot on right now. Do to popular demand, I wrote a piece about him entitled 2011 Player Profile: Ryan Raburn. Here’s a quick recap. He’s a great power option if he qualifies at second base, but as an outfielder he is merely a depth option. Regardless of where he qualifies, Raburn is still the choice between these two guys in my mind. Morrison could easily have the more productive big league career, but in terms of his fantasy value he is somewhat limited. He won’t steal many bases, he’s only swiped 23 over the past five years, and though he hit 24 homers at Single-A in 2007, he’s managed a mere 29 homers over his last 1,264 at-bats. His stroke is much more doubles oriented at the moment that one that will lift balls into the seats. His plate discipline is a strong suit, he could walk as many times as he strikes out which should allow him to produce an effective batting average, but without power or speed Morrison’s 5×5 value is somewhat limited.

What do you think of Tim Stauffer?
– @johndasher

Stauffer is one of those pitchers who somehow has moved up 35 spots on some people’s draft boards despite never having thrown a pitch in a regular season game. Hell, some people probably didn’t even know who he was two months ago. I’m not one of those guys as I was trumpeting him back in January in 2011 Player Profile: Tim Stauffer. Bottom line, there’s a lot to like with this Padres’ hurler.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

2011 Player Profile: Ryan Raburn

Photo By Gradeki

On an almost daily basis I get an email from someone asking me about Ryan Raburn. Usually they read something like ‘this guy will hit 30 homers this year for sure if he gets 500 at-bats.’ Well, let’s take a look and see if (a) he is lined up for 500 at-bats, (b) if he ‘will’ hit 30 homers and (c) what his fantasy value is for the 2011 season.

PLAYING TIME

Ryan Raburn will start in left field for the Tigers. The team will go with Austin Jackson in center, and Magglio Ordonez in right on most day, and it appears that more often than not Victor Martinez will serve as the DH. The Tigers made the decision to send Scott Sizemore down and give the starting spot at second base to Will Rhymes until Carlos Guillen is back at full strength and ready to play every day (if that will ever happen no one knows). What all of that means is that Raburn had better keep hitting or he could start to lose some playing time, especially with Casper Wells and Brennan Boesch around to take away some at-bats in the outfield if need be. Even with all of that, Raburn appears set to make 140 starts in 2011, so in terms of playing time you’d have to give him the thumbs up after he’s appeared in 113 games each of the past two years.

A HOMER BINGE?

In his career, Raburn has hit 39 homers in 981 at-bats, or one every 25 at-bats. If he is able to keep that pace in the coming season he would need 750 at-bats to reach 30 homers. Clearly that isn’t going to happen. However, he has upped the homer ante a bit the past two years leading to 31 homers in 632 at-bats. Still, it’s pretty difficult to envision a scenario in which he blows past 600 at-bats this year, so that’s going to make his run to 30 homers this season a bit difficult. He does have a slightly elevated carer fly ball rate of about 43 percent (the big league average is about 38 percent), and a slightly better than average HR/F mark of 12.5 percent. Again, neither of those numbers screams out 30 homers. I hate projecting actual numbers, but if you pressed me I would say 25 homers are doable for this fella with full time work.

2011 FANTASY VALUE

If Raburn hits 25 homers and plays everyday, he is going to be a mixed league asset, right? As an outfielder he would kind of blend in with the rest because (a) he won’t steal many bases (14 in his career) and (b) because he strikes out in a quarter of his at-bats his batting average could settle in right around his career mark of .274. However, if he qualifies as a second baseman in your league, than it’s bonanza time because a .270 hitting, 20 homer threat up the middle has a lot of value. Unfortunately, Jim Leyland must not play fantasy baseball as he allowed Raburn to play second base just 18 times last season, two short of the standard requirement of 20 games played for eligibility. Check your league rules on this as his fantasy value goes through the roof if he qualifies at second base (he could be a top-15 guy at second).

I’ve mentioned playing time in this piece, but I’ve only talked about the upside. You might have asked yourself ‘if Raburn is such a solid hitter, how is it that he has less than a thousand at-bats even though he has appeared in five big league seasons?’ One of the main reasons is that he is a vastly superior performer against left-handed pitching. It’s not that he is awful against righties (.278/.323/.430) but his slash line is certainly inferior to his work against lefties (.269/.346/.514). In fact, in 561 at-bats against righties in his career he has a mere 16 homers. That number can’t make you feel too good about his prospects of going deep 25+ times in 2011 can it? On top of that, the Tigers do have Brennan Boesch whom they’ll want to get some at-bats, and though he looked awful for long stretches last year he did murder left-handed pitching (.337/.403/.548). If Raburn struggles a bit, could he lose some of his starts against lefties to the power hitting youngster which could mean trouble since Raburn is also a better performer against southpaws?

Ryan Raburn is an end game grab in mixed leagues as an outfielder. If he happens to qualify at second base he becomes a mid round grab. Either way he figures to produce solid numbers, but I would hold off in expecting him to blow it up in 2011.

By Ray Flowers