Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.8

This week I went a bit reliever crazy. It’s better to spend a small amount on a middle reliever who could take over as the closer than spend a huge amount on the guy a week or two later when he is officially named the closer. Therefore, I added an AL East closer in pretty much every league this week, trying to get a bit ahead of the curve. We’ll see if it plays out as I think it might, or if I will have to go middle reliever trolling in the coming weeks all over again.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): Raul Ibanez ($1) was added at the cost of Maicer Izturis. Not a big loss there. I will speak more about Ibanez a little lower in this piece. I need offense, wherever I can get it, and I can move the suddenly warming Emilio Bonifacio over the the MI spot that Izturis was occupying (.286 with a couple of steals and five runs scored over his last nine games).
Notable bids: Joel Peralta ($5, I bid $4), Jerome Williams ($3), Pete Kozma ($2), Rick Porcello ($2), Jake Odorizzi ($1), DannY Valencia ($1), Kurt Suzuki ($1)

LABR (12 team, AL-only): For the third time this season through eight FA periods, I didn’t make a move in this league. I was able to activate Chris Young off the DL though, so that’s a potentially big move in an AL-only league.
Notable bids: Josh Lindblom ($4), Vidal Nuno ($4), Eric Sogard ($3), Kevin Correia ($3), Pedro Florimon ($3), Matt Tuiasosopo ($2).

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

FSTA (13 team mixed): Joel Peralta, a name you will continue to see in this piece, was added for $29. I also added Ryan Roberts to play third base over the continually pathetic Placido Polanco (Hanley Ramirez being down and out is just killing me). Roberts qualifies at second and third, and he’s hitting .316 with a homer, four RBIs and four runs over his last seven games… even if it’s been over a two week time period. I’m desperate.
Notable bids: Eric Chavez ($56), Andy Dirks ($27), David DeJesus ($24), Jerome Williams ($11), Raul Ibanez ($11). In a very interesting side note, I placed bid on Williams and Ibanez for $11… the same price as the two winnings bids (Peralta and Roberts were higher in my rankings so they were the players I was awarded).

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): Now it’s Austin Jackson who has hit the DL. I just cannot win in this league no matter what move I make. I added Joel Peralta ($4) at the cost of J.J. Putz. Without an ample series of DL spots to turn to, I just couldn’t afford to continually carry a reliever who is on the DL with no clear cut time for a return this season. Rajai Davis, another DL’d player, was let go so that Will Venable ($4) could be added to my squad. Venable has been really good in May hitting .280 with four homers, eight RBIs, eight runs and five steals in just 17 games.
Notable bids: Hector Santiago ($3), Jorge De La Rosa ($3), Derek Dietrich ($2), Oswaldo Arcia ($2), Zach McAllister ($2).

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire. Of course, Joel Peralta was added (Andre Ethier was let go). I also made a minor swap of underperforming veterans. Tim Hudson was sent out and Paul Konerko was brought back. Corey Hart continues to be hurt, so I needed a boost at the CI spot. On the hill, after a couple of deals, my staff is nails: Latos, Sale, Lee, Cain, Gallardo, Wilson and Morrow, so I could afford to move Hudson.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): Joel Peralta come on down. Ricky Nolasco, who has pitched pretty damn well this season if you must know, was let go (for some reason in this league, and I’ve been in it for years, there always seems to be available SP talent on the waiver-wire, so I’m not too worried about letting Nolasco go – we all know what he is at this point). I also added Yunel Escobar to help me up the middle at the costs of Ryan Raburn (Hanley Ramirez being on the DL has set me back a piece). Escobar is warming, quickly, and he’s hit .301 the past 30 days, .318 the past 14 days and .381 the past week.
Notable bids: David Phelps ($38), Brandon McCarthy ($36), Emilio Bonifacio ($35), Matt Joyce ($35), Bronson Arroyo ($35), Chris Carter ($31), David Lough ($24), Jake Odorizzi ($21), Alex Rodriguez ($14), Mark Ellis ($12), Colby Lewis ($12).

FANBALL (13 team mixed): I took a shot on Joel Peralta ($3) taking over the the pathetic Fernando Rodney (he has 15 walks in 16.1 innings meaning his WHIP, on just walks, is higher than it was last year, 0.92 compared to 0.78). I dropped another middle reliever in David Robertson. Ryan Raburn, hey it’s time to admit that his run of excellence is over and not going to be repeated, was cast adrift in favor of the flavor of the week Raul Ibanez. Over his last eight games he has six homers and 14 RBIs. Wow is right.
Notable bids: Scott Feldman ($7), Didi Gregorius ($3), David Dejesus ($1), Adam Lind ($1), A.J. Ellis ($1), Alberto Callaspo ($1), Nick Franklin ($1).

Finally, my thoughts on the Jurickson Profar callup. Hint, you shouldn’t be overly excited?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July25, 2012

(1) Hanley Ramirez dealt to Dodgers. Will he live up to expectations?

(2) Ryan Dempster not on way to Braves? Maybe Dodgers? Maybe staying in Chicago?

(3) Zack Greinke on Braves radar?

(4) A-Rod fractures hand, out 6-8 weeks. Chase Headley target?

(5) Cole Hamels signs 6-year, $144 deal with Phillies.

(6) Ryan Roberts to Rays.

(7) Wandy Rodriguez dealt to Pirates (will his ownership rate go up in his new home? See Feaflicker).

(8)  Since All-Star break – Yoenis Cespedes/Carlos Santana on fire.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

John Buck vs. Cliff Lee: Buck has been awful this year but in his last six games he has three homers and seven RBI. He’s also got a matchup that he has had success in given that he has hit .317 with three homers an a 1.001 OPS over 41 at-bats against the one time ace lefty.

Ryan Roberts vs. Randy Wolf: Roberts isn’t exactly tearing it up, but with Josh Bell demoted he has a shot to reclaim a daily role with the club. He hit a homer in his last game and Friday he faces Wold who he has produced seven hits in 15 at-bats against (.467 with one homer). By the way, don’t start Wolf Friday. He’s allowed a .329/.391/.574 slash line to the current D’backs roster in 155 at-bats.

B.J. Upton vs. Justin Verlander: You know the term ‘playing with fire?’ Here we go with that. Upton has been in a terrible slump that has led to one hit in six games, and he faces arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Still, the numbers suggest it’s not as bad as it seems as Upton has eight hits, including a homer, in 18 at-bats against Verlander leading to a .444 average and five RBIs (Hideki Matsui has also had some success hitting .333 in 24 at-bats).

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ross Detwiler vs. Braves: He hasn’t had much success against the Braves in his career with a 3.80 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over 23.2 innings, but his numbers this season against everyone look impressive (3.09 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). Plus, he’s been locked in for the month of June with a 1.10 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 16.1 innings.

Brian Duensing vs. Royals: This is one of those shot in the dark calls based totally on history and pretty much nothing else. Brian D. has made only one start this year so he isn’t likely to go deep into this game, and his last outing was unsuccessful (4 ER in 2 IP). Still, history says he makes for a nice play against the Royals: 6-2, 2.98 ERA over 57.1 innings.

Mike Leake vs. Giants: Leake has killed it in June with a 2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 4.50 K/BB ratio (though he’s only gone 1-0, great job Reds). The negative? He faces Matt Cain.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Wilson Betemit vs. Josh Tomlin: Three things make this move make sense. (1) Betemit is 7-for-17 with two homers and four RBI against Tomlin. (2) Betemit has been hot in June hitting .383 with a 1.008 OPS in 60 at-bats. (3) Tomlin has been awful in June with a 6.75 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 10 Ks in 26.2 innings.

Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: Just seeing this matchup should interest you, even if you had no idea about their history versus one another. Given that Mauer is hitting .450 with a .577 OBP against Hochevar in 26 plate appearances, it’s lock and load time with the star hitting catcher.

Placido Polanco vs. Mark Buehrle: Normally Polanco would be the last guy to pay any attention at all too since all he does is produce singles. Still, you simply cannot overlook his massive career efforts against the Miami lefty. In 41 career at-bats Polanco has, get this, 18 hits leading to a .439 batting average against Buehrle.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Michael Fiers vs. D’backs: He’s looked pretty darn good this season for the Brew Crew with 31 Ks and just five walks over 33.1 innings. That will play in any league. He’s also working on a 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, not to mention that he has allowed just one run over his last 15.1 innings.

Mat Latos vs. Giants: He gets the weak link of the Giants staff in Barry Zito, and he’s also dominated the club from San Fran in 10 career starts with a 2.35 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 4.00 K/BB ratio.

Rick Porcello vs. Tampa Bay: His season has been an uneven one, what else is new, but he’s looked pretty locked in over his last two starts permitting three runs over 13 innings. He’s also going to be facing a club that he ha had success against in three career starts. Over 20 innings Rick P. has 17 Ks and has issued only five free passes leading to a 3.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

CONTESTS

DailyJoust allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided. DJ has redesigned things to help you navigate the games, and let me tell you, consider me impressed. It looks pretty darn sharp – don’t you think?

By Ray Flowers 

Around the Horn: May22, 2012

(1) D’backs call up Josh Bell to replace Ryan Roberts.

(2) Bryan LaHair really slumping in May.

(3) James Loney heating up.

(4) Chris Capuano pitching like Sandy Koufax.

(5) Kyle Drabek living on the edge.

(6) Adam Lind solid start down at Triple-A.

(7) Miguel Montero and Ryan Braun dealing with groin issues.

(8) Jimmy Rollins out a couple of days to be with first child.

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Enjoying Multiple Positions

The Fantasy Beat with Trevor Ray and Justin Fensterman talks about the players that fill several different positions for fantasy baseball. They discuss the benefits of having these players and some of the players with multiple position eligibility you should go after and stay away from.

Michael Young, Ryan Roberts, Emilio Bonifacio, Howie Kendrick, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Morse, Robert Andino

Listen to the Audio.

The Fantasy Beat: Surviving the 3B Drop-Off

 Everyone has heard that 3B is one of the scarcest positions this year so Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray break down players to grab if you have missed the elite options at the position (Ray Flowers also wrote an article about the third base position as well in Third Base, A Wasteland?).

Listen to the Audio.

Third Base: A Wasteland?

The assumption in 2012 is that third base is a shallow position in fantasy baseball. Over at MockDraftCentral people seem to be agreeing with that line of thought as everyone is jumping in early to roster their man at the hot corner. There are nine third baseman going in the top-85 selections, and that doesn’t include Jose Bautista who would bring that number to ten (he’s listed as an outfielder though he obviously qualifies at third base). After that group there are three other third base eligible players going in picks 85-200… a vast span of time for only three third sackers to be drafted. So what’s going on at third base? Some thoughts follow.

Last year only three third base eligible performers hit .300: Michael Young (.338), Aramis Ramirez (.306) and Jose Bautista (.302).

Last year four third base eligible performers hit 30 homers: Bautista (43), Mark Reynolds (37), Adrian Beltre (32) and Evan Longoria (31).

Last year only three third base eligible performers posted 100 runs batted in: Young (106), Beltre (105) and Bautista (103).

Last year only one third base eligible player had 90 runs scored: Bautista (105).

All told, shockingly, there were three third base eligible players who hit .270 with 20 homers, 75 RBI and 75 runs scored. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but only three guys were able to hit all three benchmarks (Bautista, Beltre and Ramirez)? Clearly there is a lack of stardom at the hot corner, or is there?

In 2012 injuries limited Pablo Sandoval to 117 games, David Wright to 102, Ryan Zimmerman to 101 and Alex Rodriguez to 99.  What if all of those guys play 140 games in 2012? That would give us eight guys to count on (in addition to the three above players who hit all four benchmarks).

That group of seven doesn’t include Evan Longoria who is going in the top-15 in every draft this season. That’s gets us up to eight third sackers.

Kevin Youkilis appeared in only 120 games last year, but the pace he set, if he played 145 games, would equate to 21 homers, 97 RBI and 82 runs. That’s nine quality third baseman.

Mark Reynolds may only be a .225 type of hitter, but his power and run production is elite. The last three years he has hit 113 homers, the most at the position. He has 273 RBI, the third highest total at the position. He’s also scored 261 runs, second to Longoria (274) amongst third sackers. That’s 10 quality third basemen.

Brett Lawrie is going off the board as the 5th third baseman ahead of Arod. I may not think he deserves to go that high despite oodles of talent, but even if I were to knock him down the board substantially he’s still a guy who everyone could agree is worthy of a top-12 pick.

Though Michael Young hit only 11 homers last season he hit .338, knocked in 106 runners and scored 88 times. Pretty sure he belongs in the top-12 at the hot corner.

So that’s 12 third basemen that you can pretty easily turn to. If you’re in a 12 team league that means nearly everyone who comes to the dance will have a hottie to hold (and this discussion hasn’t even included guys like Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez who will be playing third base this year).

You want more love at third?

David Freese was the MVP of the world during the playoffs last year. For more on Freese see his Player Profile.

Ryan Roberts hit 19 homers, stole 18 bases and he scored 86 runs, the third highest total at the position.

Mike Moustakas, according to most observers, is a 25-90 bat waiting to happen.

Chase Headley has the potential to go 15/15 and score plenty of runs with his approach. OK, maybe that’s a stretch, but he still has talent (see his Player Profile).

I could go on and talk about former elite level prospects like Mat Gamel and Pedro Alvarez and why it makes sense to take a shot on both late in drafts this season, but I think the point has been made. While third base may be a little top heavy, I’d argue that unless you’re in a deep league that you should feel pretty confident that there are enough men who man the hot corner to go around.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Chase Headley

Chase Headley has always had a fan at BaseballGuys.com. If you purchased a copy of the 2011 BBGuys’ Draft Guide, and if you didn’t shame on you, you will recall my words of encouragement about Headley (this years Draft Guide will likely drop at the end of January or early February for those of you itching to get it in your hands). Headley didn’t live up to expectations in terms of his fantasy output in 2011, but that doesn’t mean that he didn’t show some growth. Read on for my explanation of what I’m talking about an if there is enough here to make him someone to target in 2012 (I broke down his new teammate, Carlos Quentin, in this Player Profile).

Headley will have corner infield value in mixed leagues because he isn’t afraid to steal a bag. Each of the past three years he has stolen at least 10 bags, and his three year average is a cool 13 thefts a season, the same total he posted last year. Amongst third base eligible players only Eduardo Nunez (22), Ryan Roberts (18) and Mike Aviles (14) had more last season. Don’t misinterpret what I’m saying – I’m not saying Headley is some base stealing marvel, but he does steal a fair amount of bags relative to others at the third base position.

Headley hit a career best .289 last season, better than the marks posted by Placido Polanco (.277), Chipper Jones (.275), Martin Prado (.260), Kevin Youkilis (.258) and Roberts (.249). That certainly helped to boost Headley’s value in the fantasy game. While OBP isn’t counted in the majority of leagues, Headley was also a strong performer there. Headley’s .374 OBP was the highest mark of any third baseman in the National League (minimum 400 plate appearances). He can thank the fact that he pushed his walk rate to a career best level (11.8 percent), two percentage points above his career rate. He still struck out 21 percent of the time, but the result was a 0.57 BB/K mark, the best of his career. As you can see, Headley produced a strong average and got on base at a great clip in 2011 compared to other third sackers – and there is value in that.

There’s a pink elephant in the room though, and the number on that tutu is four, as in the homer total of Headley in 2011. As a third baseman, Headley would have to be performing at an Ichiro-like level to overcome a mere four homers, and clearly Headley didn’t so his fantasy value was sunk last season. We can partly blame the fact that injury limited him to just 113 games, but that’s like using a band aid for a broken leg. The fact is that Headley has never learned how to lift the ball. He raps out extra base hits, he’s averaged 29 doubles the last three years, an as we’ve see he produces hits, but he doesn’t hit the ball in the air. Chase’s fly ball rate has regressed the past two years, down from 38.3 percent to 36.0 and 32.3 percent, which is well below the big league average of about 37 percent. So he doesn’t hit enough fly balls to be a big time home run hitter. Second, his HR/F ratio is just 7.0 percent for his career, and the last two years he’s failed to reach 6.5 percent. You can certainly blame him for that, but his home ball yard in San Diego also isn’t doing him any favors. Petco was 12th out of 16 NL stadiums last year according to the HR Park Idicies, and the past three years Petco is 15th in the NL. If Headley were to move out of San Diego a run to 15 homers seems reasonable, though that’s still nothing to get overly excited about when we’re talking about a third baseman hitting 15 homers.

The best thing that could happen to Chase would be for him to be dealt to another club. He seemingly profiles very well as a #2 hitter, but he might be best suited as a 6th or 7th place hitter on a strong team. If he was allowed to spend his home games in an offensive leaning park a 15 homer, 15 steal season could be possible. Toss in a .280-ish batting average and then we’d be talking. However, if he isn’t dealt out of San Diego, Headley would likely be best served as a solid third base option in NL-only leagues. Headley might still produce enough to be a solid corner infield option in deep mixed leagues, after all his career bests would lead to a .289-12-65-77-17 fantasy line, but he’s more of a speculative play in that format.

By Ray Flowers

Still In The Game

I know the NFL season got underway last night with a barn burner between the Saints and the Packers, but I’m still all about baseball even though my Giants have completely fallen apart. Here are some players who are flashing a strong finishing kick as the season nears the finish line.

Raul Ibanez is old, boring, and if he wasn’t on the Phillies you might have forgotten that he was still playing major league baseball. Still, the guy is on fire of late, and once again is an option in mixed leagues. Ibanez has seven hits in his last 17 at-bats, and over his last 10 games he is batting .378 with two homers and seven RBI. He’s also three doubles from a 10th straight season of 30, and with 37 RBI in his last 43 games he needs just nine RBI to push his season total to 80 for the 7th straight year and ninth time in 10 years. The old guy is still producing despite a .293 OBP an a .720 OPS, but make sure you buy a ticket to watch him play right now. This is likely his last hurrah.

Jon Jay of the Cardinals has 12 hits in his last 23 at-bats leading to a .522 batting average. During that run he has recorded 5-straight games with at least two hits. The recent run has pushed his season average up to .308 which would be the 7th best mark in the NL if he had enough plate appearances. The Cardinals have 19 games left on the year, and Jay currently has 428 plate appearances. Since you need 502 to qualify for the batting title he’ll need 74 plate appearances from here on out to make it. He’d need to average 3.89 PAs per outing. He can do that if he stays healthy.

Since returning from his stint on the DL Joe Nathan has posted a 2.96 ERA with 10 saves over 26 outings. Is he totally “back”? Well, if judged by his batting average against (.178 over 90 at-bats) the answer would certainly be yes.

Derrek Lee has had a down season to be sure, but he has been flat out killing it of late. Since he returned from the DL he has gone 10-for-20 with two bombs and seven RBI. He could still help you out if you need a corner infield boost in mixed leagues.

Carlos Pena has posted a .422 OBP and .993 OPS over his last 32 games thanks in no small part to the 26 walks he has received. He needs two bombs and 12 RBI the final three weeks for a fifth straight season of 28 homers and 84 RBI.

Ryan Roberts owns a .256/.354/.444 slash line which is boring and pretty much a carbon copy of his career numbers (.254/.344/.417). However, he’s been given every day playing time, and as a result some of his numbers are rather impressive. The 54 RBI stink, but the D’back has 77 runs scored. Pretty solid. He has 18 homers, again, pretty solid considering all the issues that third base has had this year. However, when you add in 18 steals, his fantasy value skyrockets. That’s right, this “no-name” is two homers and two steals from one of the most improbable 20/20 seasons in recent memory.

And the one downer of the list…

Rickie Weeks has been activated off the DL for the Brewers. It was thought that he would be able to pinch hit right away as he worked on strengthening his ankle. However, the team is now saying that it might still be a few days before he’s able to do even that. What that means is that you shouldn’t be counting on playing him next week in your H2H matchup. I’ve said it so many times, but it bears repeating: coming into the season he had three seasons of 100+ games and three with less than 100 games. He’s appeared in 104 games up to this point, so don’t come crying to me if you are disappointed. It’s just how it goes with Weeks who is looking more like J.D. Drew by the day.

By Ray Flowers