Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

'Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (4)' photo (c) 2011, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/ It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Brandon Phillips vs. J.A. Happ: Just like Uggla below, Phillips doesn’t have much of a track record against the pitcher he is facing. At the same time, what he has done is  hard to ignore. In nine at-bats Phillips has five hits leading to a .556 batting average against Happ. Three of those five hits were dingers, and that has helped to push his RBI total top five in this tasty matchup.

Ryan Theriot vs. Paul Maholm: Looking for an under the radar play on Friday? If you are, it would be wise to look to the Giants’ Theriot who has had quite an extensive run of success against the lefty with the Cubs. Theriot has hit .343 with a .410 OBP in 35 at-bats against Maholm over 35 at-bats.

Dan Uggla vs. Stephen Strasburg: How in the world could I suggest starting a guy against a pitcher who has a 2.64 ERA, 1.10 WHIP an a 10.86 K/9 mark? It’s been a mere eight at-bats but Uggla has had phenomenal success against the righty from Washington with six hits including two homers leading to seven RBI. Pretty darn amazing.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Wade Miley vs. Padres: The young lefty has held his own and then some through 10 appearances this year as he has gone 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He still has a poor 2.00 K/BB ratio, that 5.50 K/9 mark is weak, and two homers in 52.1 innings – let’s just say that isn’t likely to continue. Still, in this matchup against the Padres in Petco, it’s lock and load time.

Felipe Paulino vs. Athletics: The A’s have a historically bad offense, an I’m not making that up. Paulino has a 2.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 34 Ks through 31.1 innings this season. Moreover, three of his five outings this year he has held the opponent scoreless. I’m going to ignore his lone performance against the A’s last September 5th (4.1 IP, 6 ER).

Randy Wolf vs. Pirates: Why not complete the trifecta of starters against the worst offenses in baseball? Wolf has struggled this year big time (5.73 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but he has looked better of late allowing three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. He’s also facing a Pirates club that he has gone 9-3 against in his career with 112 Ks in 124 innings. Plus, the club from Pittsburgh has the lowest average in the NL (.218), the worst OBP in baseball (.272) and has scored 17 runs less than any other club in the game (147).

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Ryan Ludwick vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Wandy has pitched well this season, and the perception is that Ludwick has really struggled this year. The truth is in the middle perhaps. Ludwick has had a lot of success against Wandy with two homer an a .314 batting average in 35 at-bats against the lefty and he’s also gone deep twice while knocking in eight runners in his last eight games.

Hanley Ramirez vs. Cole Hamels: HanRam has barely been a .250 hitter since the start of the 2011 season and he’s also hit a mere .264 against Hamels in 53 at-bats in the match up. Why in the world would I suggest paying close attention to Hanley on Friday then? Of the 14 hits that Hanley has against the lefty Ramirez has 10 doubles. Ten. That’s a pace for 100 doubles over 530 at-bats. Wow is right. Is it a stretch to think that he could lift one of those pitches into the seats?

Ichiro Suzuki vs. Gavin Floyd: Ichiro has struggled this year, at least when compared to his previous levels of excellence, but he’s pretty much looked very much like the guy we saw for most of 2011. Middling. Still, Ichiro has a track record of success against Floyd as he has hit .361 in 36 at-bats. Given that Floyd has also allowed 21 runs in his last 14.2 innings it would seem like a pretty good time to trust Ichiro.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mat Latos vs. Astros: Latos has been uneven this year, all those that own him understand that, but he’s won his last four decisions and has allowed three or fewer runs in four of his last five outings during which time his ERA has gone down from 5.97 to 4.58. He’s also struck out 18 batters while issuing only four walks in his last three starts, so as long as he can keep the ball in the park – he allowed an amazing five homers in his last start – he should have a solid outing against an Astros club that he is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP against in his career.

Ricky Nolasco vs. Phillies: Off the top it sounds a bit crazy, but think about it. Nolasco will be facing a Phillies club without Howard/Utley, Jimmy Rollins can barely hit his way out of a papersack right now,  and Carlos Ruiz is less than 100 percent physically. There’s also the fact that Nolasco has long had success against the club from Philly going 6-4 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 83.2 innings.

Edinson Volquez vs. D’backs: Volquez pitches at home Saturday, and he’s had a ton of success there this season even though his record is 1-3 (3.19 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 42 Ks in 42.1 innings). He faces a D’backs club that he held to two runs in seven innings in his second start of the year, and in his career he has 28 punchouts in 24.1 innings against the club from Arizona. He’s also allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his 11 starts this season. It’s not always pretty, sometimes he has trouble throwing strikes, but he has been able to limit the damage, for the most part, in his first year in San Diego.

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By Ray Flowers

Looking for a Change

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I’ve had one of those days. You know, the ones that start out promising but by 9:30 you realize it’s all already gone horribly wrong. The ironic thing is that I was joking this morning on the Fanball podcast that when it goes horribly wrong I just pull back on the Captain Morgan Rum. Little did I know I was going to need it on this day. But don’t worry I’ll bounce back on Thursday, I’ve got me a plan to really enjoy myself, so this frown will be turned upside down soon enough. What about the following players who have been struggling mightily over the past 30 days – are the going to be flashing the pearly whites or burying their face in their bent arm trying to avoid the press?

Coming into play on Wednesday night, Bengie Molina was hitting .248. As recently as May 17th, less than a month ago, he was hitting a robust .330. How is it possible to fall so hard, so fast? Molina has had five hits – total – in his last 16 games. That’s right, Molina is 5-for-54 which works out to a .093 average the past few weeks. It has to get better than that, but he has been so awful all year you can’t possibly have him active in your lineup right now unless you start two catchers, and even then you could probably do better at the moment.

Over the past 30 days, the worst hitter in the bigs who has played on a regular basis is Cliff Pennington of the A’s at .124 which is actually light years worse than the .179 mark of the aforementioned Molina. Lest you think there are only two struggling hitters in the Bay Area, Aaron Rowand has the second worst mark in baseball in that time frame at .147. That’s ugly, and there is little sign of a turnaround for either Pennington or Rowand.

Aaron Hill is hitting .170 to extend his run of horrid work at the dish. A year after hitting .286, his third season in four years of at least .286 by the way, Hill is hitting .183 on the year. That’s right, his recent run of hitting futility is only imperceptibly worse than his work over the entirety of the season. I can’t fathom how it’s possible that he currently has a 7.6 percent line drive rate which is roughly 40 percent of his career 19.3 percent mark. His season just has to turn around at some point. It’s like he’s hitting with his eyes closed.

How had has Aaron Rowand been? He’s been so pathetic that his .172 OBP is still worse than the .179 batting average of Bengie Molina’s younger brother Yadier Molina (.179). I think I’ve just about overdosed either Molina’s and Capt. Morgan. OK, maybe just on Molina’s.

Matt Wieters, nicknamed The Messiah by some in Baltimore, continues to hit more like a defrocked priest than The Savior. Wieters hasn’t even hit his weight the past 30 days at .189, and he hasn’t gone deep even one time in those 74 at-bats. For a guy with such a smooth stroke and a background that screams for domination at the dish, he has been completely clueless for most of this season.

Ichiro Suzuki is hitting .374 — oops. That is barely good enough for a fifth place finish in that time: Miguel Olivo (.394), Justin Morneau (.391), Robinson Cano (.386) and Luke Scott (.382).

Nyjer Morgan has only two RBI, the same total as Ryan Theriot – the worst amongst regulars. Juan Pierre is tied for second worst with three RBI, but that is hardly a shock given that all three of these guys make their money with their legs and with slapping the ball around the yard. However, it is amazing to think that David Murphy, of the offensively minded Rangers, has just three RBI over his last 89 plate appearances. You have to think that will change moving forward as he has the ability to drive the ball much more effectively than we have seen for the majority of the season.

So there you have it. A quick rundown of some of the worst of the worst right now. I’m off to eat a little something since I have to get something on my stomach to avoid having this rum go to my head.

By Ray Flowers

2010 Auction Results

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I know it’s prime fantasy football time as we approach Thanksgiving, aka Turkey Day, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t knee deep in baseball right now. I know, I know, it might seem weird to think that we are going baseball at this time of year, but that’s the name of the game when it comes to magazines (you can read a bit more about this situation in What an Odd Life). To that end, we had a 15-team auction, NFBC style, with 23 starting spots (14 hitters, nine pitchers with no reserves). If you want to see how the entire draft played out you will have to buy the magazine when it hits the newsstands in the middle of December, but here are a few thoughts on my team.

1- I rostered Jimmy Rollins and Derek Jeter at shortstop and middle infield for a total of $49 of my $260 dollar salary. Considering the paucity of top level talent at shortstop, I thought that it was a great idea to not only fill my middle infield spot with Jeter, an amazingly consistent force, but also to in essence “steal” a stud shortstop from another squad. Good luck rolling with Ryan Theriot.

2- I grabbed a couple of guys, on the cheap, who clearly have a shot at returning some nice value in 2010.

Corey Hart ($10) – Wait a second, didn’t Hart go 20/20 in back-to-back seasons before last years struggles? Given that he is just one year removed from said 20/20 work, and that he will only be 27 years old on opening day, I’d have to say that my Fanball co-workers missed the boat here. He may never have that truly monumental effort with his lack of plate discipline, but there is at least a 50/50 shot that he returns at least $15 in 2010, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number approached $20.

Johnny Damon ($10) – I guess everyone must have been staring at a hottie on the television when Damon’s name came up. Perhaps the guys are worried how his production could fall if he isn’t hitting at the top of the Yankees order in that great hitters’ park, but come on now. He has no upside, and will be 36 next season, but the guy has scored 90+ runs in 12-straight years and in each of the last 14 seasons he has appeared in at least 140 games – the third longest streak in the history of baseball. A safe pick if there is such a thing.

Johnny Peralta ($5) – Third base is really, really shallow this season. This isn’t a huge upside selection if you look at his ’09 numbers (.254-11-83), that is until you realize that he socked 44 homers with 161 RBI in 2007-08. He has the added bonus of qualifying at shortstop (41 games) and third base (105). Considering how late I grabbed him (my 20th pick I believe), I don’t think there is any reason to view this as anything other than a fine selection.

Vladimir Guerrero ($6) – It’s like no one realizes that he hit .295 with 15 homers in just 383 ABs. Give him 550 ABs and we are talking about a pace that would have led to a .295 average and 22 homers. If healthy, I really don’t see a reason he can’t go .300-20, though you do have to remember he only qualifies at DH.

Francisco Liriano ($2) – I know he will never again be the wunderkind who went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and a 10.71 K/9 mark in 2006 prior to his elbow surgery, but he could easily quintuple the cost here, and that makes him a bargain basement buy with considerable upside.

So there are my thoughts on my first 2010 baseball auction, even though we still have a month and a half left in the 2009 season.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Diagnosis

Tuesday has been yet another day of injury reports, sprinkled with a bit of info about player performance. In what follows, my analysis will fall along those lines as well.

Jose Contreras has hurled 15 scoreless innings at Triple-A since he was sent down to work on things. Just goes to show you how large the gap is between the majors and the minors cause I really don’t think he has turned back the clock 10 years in a mere two weeks.

Mike Fontenot is 1-for-29 of late to drop his average down to .204. So much for him building on a 2008 that included a .304 average, nine home runs and 40 RBI in just 243 ABs. In fact, Fontenot has been out-produced by lightweight Ryan Theriot who has gone deep as many times as Fontenot, five, while producing one more RBI (18) while hitting .294. That’s why they play the game folks, and the bottom line is that even when you have all your ducks in a row, it doesn’t always work out like you would expect it to (Theriot entered the year with seven home runs in 1,264 at-bats).

Vladimir Guerrero is hopeful of returning from his injured pectoral muscle soon, perhaps as early as next Monday. When he returns he will likely be limited to the DH spot, that is if his rehab work goes well this weekend. As for the team’s pitching staff who recently got back John Lackey and Ervin Santana, there is potentially more good news on the way as Kelvim Escobar(shoulder) is nearing his first rehab appearance of the year next week. He hopes to be able to throw upwards of 60 pitches in the outing. He is hoping to return as a starter, but even if the club eventually decides to slot him as a reliever, his return would not only provide an emotional lift to the club, his right arm could also present favorable returns if he can return to unleashing the filthy stuff that has been his calling card.

Noah Lowry will have another surgery, this one ending his 2009 season. Apparently he will have a rib removed in the same type of procedure that Jeremy Bonderman underwent last season (thoracic outlet syndrome). According to Lowry’s agent this condition has essentially gone undiagnosed for about two years, and this procedure should finally fix what ails the lefty hurler after years of failed attempts including other medical procedures. I wish him all the luck in the world, but it remains to be seen if we will ever see him on the field in the majors ever again, the same situation that may have befallen A’s third baseman Eric Chavez who might have to end his career because of a herniated disc in his back as there is concern that any further baseball related damage could hinder his quality off life moving forward.

Carlos Quentin missed a third straight game because of his heel injury on Tuesday. With Brian Anderson back off the DL, could Quentin be headed to it soon?

Joakim Soria threw on Tuesday for the first time since hitting the DL on May 7th. Obviously that means he will not be ready to go when eligible on Saturday as he only threw off of flat ground. Reports are positive and this news still means that he will likely be back by next week, but continue to look for Juan Cruz to be the man they turn to in the ninth inning for the rest of the week. Speaking of Cruz, his 13 to 10 K/BB ratio is awful and well below his normal 1.99 K/BB rate. Why? The main reason is that his K-rate has plummeted from over 12 per nine the past two years to 6.27 this season. He is still throwing as hard as ever (94.1 mph is his average fastball speed), so expect his K-rate to rise no matter what role he fills moving forward.

I said it on the podcast his morning, and I’m feeling even more secure in the statement I made. Joey Votto’s dizziness continues on without an explanation, and it’s looking more and more like a DL stint is coming. He might avoid it, he last played on May 16th, but even if he doesn’t end up on the DL it looks like this week is pretty much shot, not to mention it remains to be seen how he will fair once he returns because it’s not like you can hit a baseball when you are even slightly dizzy.

Friday's Fantasy Notes

As we head into what will be a glorious weekend of sports that includes NBA and NHL playoffs and game after game of MLB action, here are a few of the stories that really piqued my interest as I prepare myself to hit the shower and shave the old beard in my attempt, however feeble, to impress the ladies with my presence this weekend.

Rich Harden lasted just 3.2 innings on Friday against the Marlins as he was pounded for six hits, four walks and five runs as he left with a 5.11 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP through his five starts. Amazingly, he has 37 K in his 24.2 IP, good for a stupendous 13.50 K/9 mark despite all the struggles with the strike zone. He is a real mixed bag right now. He has lasted six innings in three of his starts but has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in the other two.

One is going up, the other going down. Hanley Ramirez finally returned to the action on Friday, his first appearance since injuring his hand on Monday when he was hit by a pitch. He struck out in his lone at-bat. Down south in Texas, Josh Hamilton and his sore rib cage has finally resulted in the team placing him on the DL (retroactive to April 27th meaning he will be eligible to return on May 12th). As a result, Andruw Jones just may be looking at an increase in playing time, and as crazy as it sounds, he might actually deserve it. Through 32 at-bats this season he is batting a fantastic .344 with a 1.304 OPS thanks to a total of three home runs and five doubles. He has also scored 12 runs in only 11 games, and just maybe he has turned the corner after looking about as useful as pocket lint last season.

When was the last time you caught Bull Durham starring Kevin Costner, Tim Robbins and Susan Sarandon? Do yourself a favor if its been a while, see it again. When the talk about classic sports movies, there may be no finer example on celluloid about baseball.

Ryan Theriot hit one home run last season in 580-AB. On Friday he went deep for the first time this season, in just his 22nd game, as he socked a grand slam. At the other end of the spectrum we have Carl Crawford who has the most at-bats this season without going deep (92). Only slightly better than him is Alex Rios who has gone deep just once in 101 ABs and Jacoby Ellsbury who has one tater in 94 ABs. As for Rios, what the hell has happened to his power at the dish? After going deep 24 times in 2007 Rios regressed to just 15 long balls last season and now sits with a grand total of 16 home runs in his last 736 at-bats. I don’t want to write the guy off, especially since I drafted him in multiple leagues this season, but that lack of pop is distressing, especially considering that he has swiped a mere two bags in 24 games this season.

The matchup everyone was hoping to see this NHL post season will happen as the Washington Capitals will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in Round 2. Three of the most luminous stars in the game will face off in Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. While Crosby has been great in his young career, his star is in danger of being eclipsed due to the play of Ovechkin and Malkin, two of the three finalists for the Hart Trophy this season (the NHL MVP). It will be one hell of a series with other stars like Mike Green and Alexander Semin also involved, so if you are one of those people who still are unsure about the game of hockey, this could certainly be the series that pushes you to the opinion of this writer – it is a great game, perhaps the best that can be viewed in person with it’s combination of skill, speed and physicality.