Draft Day Challenge, May 21

'Zack Greinke Spring Training 3.14.13' photo (c) 2000, Feelin' Kinda Blue - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

BaseballGuys.com. has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann
2. Salvador Perez

McCann loves to see Mike Pelfrey on the hill. In 39 at-bats the slugging catcher has hit .462 with two homers and 10 RBIs. Yowzahs.

Perez is batting .3008 on the year and has pushed that mark to .368 over the past week. He’s also hit .323 against righties this year. So what if he doesn’t have an at-bat against Bud Norris.

FIRST BASE
1. Albert Pujols
2. Jordan Pacheco

What was once a lock now seems like a risk. Pujols has hit .280 with two homers the past week, and he faces Aaron Harang who he hits pretty well (.311 with five homers and 15 RBIs over 74 at-bats).

After going superstar in Pujols (former superstar?), let’s go with a nobody in Pacheco. Jordan has a hit in his last three starts. Jordan is hitting .400 the past week. Jordan has hit .340 at home. He’s hit .500 (18 ABs) against the D’backs in his career. Jordan has four hits in 11 at-bats (.364) against Ian Kennedy.

SECOND BASE
1. Dan Uggla
2. Brandon Phillips

Uggla hammers Pelfrey hitting .406 with 11 RBIs in 32 at-bats which is enough for me to overlook the fact that he has one hit in his last 14 at-bats overall.

Go big or go home with Phillips. Not only has the guy knocked in 38 runners in 43 games this season, he’s also hit .300 with a homer and seven RBIs the past week. He’s gone 5/13 (.385) with two homers against Jonathon Niese.

THIRD BASE
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Eric Chavez

Alvarez is only hitting .147 at home this season (and .201 overall), but he’s gone deep twice in the past week, is facing Matt Garza in his first start this season, and has gone 5-for-10 with a HR against Garza in their confrontations.

Chavez is hitting .343 on the year and he’s batting an unbelievable .571 with six RBIs the past week. He faces Jhoulys Chacin who he has never seen before on Tuesday.

SHORTSTOP
1. Yunel Escobar
2. Didi Gregorius

Escobar has a hit in eight of his last nine games, and he’s driven in six runs in his last four outings. He faces Ramon Ortiz, you know the old guy who we haven’t consistently seen take a turn in the big league since before Obama was elected President.

Gregorius is hitting like he never has in his life before, but we’re not worried about the fact that he has no chacne to keep that up the rest of the way. Didi has one hit in two at-bats against Chacin in his career but he has six hits in his last two games and has gone 8-for-13 against the Rockies this season.

OUTFIELD
1. Nate McLouth
2. Matt Holliday

How excited would you be about a player if I told you he had seven hits, including four doubles, in nine at-bats against a pitcher? That’s what has happened when McLouth has faced Phil Hughes.

Holliday has hit Edinson Volquez hard with a .412 average, two homers and four RBIs in 17 at-bats. Carlos Beltran has also hit .417 with five RBIs in 12 ABs against the righty.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Zack Greinke
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Jose Fernandez
4. Jerome Williams

Greinke looked sharp in his return from the DL and he gets to return to his former home in Milwaukee. He faces a Brewers team that has, get this, produced two hits against in him 34 at-bats. Two. He also faces Hiram Burgos which doesn’t hurt.

Wandy has been very good this season and in four home starts this season he’s gone 3-1 with a 1.35 ERA. He faces a Cubs team that isn’t very good offensively, and he’s also posted a 2.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP against them in their last six meetings.

Fernandez has gone at least six innings in each of his last three starts allowing a total of five earned runs for the Marlins. He’s also struck out 21 batters in those 20 innings. He faces a Phillies team that is without Howard and Ruiz.

Williams has pitched well this year, there’s no way he can sustain that 3.05 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, but he faces the Mariners Tuesday. The entire Mariners team has hit .228 with one home run in 114 at-bats against Williams.
By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, April 23

'Jose Quintana' photo (c) 2012, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter: @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Salvador Perez
2. Russell Martin

Perez is hitting a poor .188 the past three weeks to drop his season long mark down to .258. He faces Max Scherzer, a tough matchup, though one that he has had ample success with as he’s gone deep twice and has five hits in seven at-bats.

Martin was awful at the start of the season and people were freaking out. He’s turned that all around of late. Martin is hitting .526 the past week with a couple of homers. Things tend to even out eventually.

FIRST BASE
1. Mark Trumbo
2. Adam LaRoche

Trumbo is hitting .350 with a homer the last week, and he’s been solid all year long with a .311 average. He’s also gone 4-for-10 against Alexi Ogando whom he faces on this day.

LaRoche is a slow starter, so maybe it’s tough to trust him, but he has had some success versus Adam Wainwright in his career (.280-1-9 in 25 at-bats).

SECOND BASE
1. Ian Kinsler
2. Jose Altuve

Kinsler is expensive, but he’s worth it given the success he has had against Jason Vargas (.343-1-3 with two steals over 35 at-bats).

Altuve is white hot right now with a .455 batting average over the past two weeks. Will he be able to keep that going against Hisashi Iwakuma who has a 1.69 ERA and 0.53 WHIP over four starts?

THIRD BASE
1. Mark Reynolds
2. Kyle Seager

Reynolds leads baseball with 10 RBIs against left-handed pitching and he faces Jose Quintana, a lefty, from the White Sox. Reynolds has gone deep three times against lefties though he has hit, a Reynolds-like, .231.

Seager is hitting .276 thanks to hits in 11-straight games. He’s also rapped out seven hits the past three games and has two homers and four RBIs in his past two contests.

SHORTSTOP
1.Yunel Escobar
2. Jean Segura

Escobar has seven hits in 16 at-bats (.438) against Phil Hughes, you know, the slacker from New York who has a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA through three outings. Escobar also hit his second homer of the year and had two RBIs Monday night.

Segura is 0-for-3 against Clayton Richard in his career but he also leads baseball on this young season with a .563 batting average in 16 at-bats against left-handed pitching.

OUTFIELD
1. Alex Gordon
2. Matt Joyce

The matchup for Gordon looks sloppy on paper as he faces Max Scherzer. Results though say that Gordon should have a lot of success as he’s hit .389 with a homer in 18 at-bats against the righty. Gordon also enters the game hitting. .342 in April.

Joyce has gone deep twice with five hits in 11 at-bats (.455) against Phil Hughes, you know, the slacker from New York who has a 1.79 WHIP and 6.43 ERA through three outings. Wait, have I already written that?

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jose Quintana
2. Wade Davis
3. Patrick Corbin
4. Carlos Villanueva

Quintana has 14 strikeouts over 13.2 shutout innings in his last two starts. He’s facing an Indians club that has hit .094 with a .172 SLG against him over 64 at-bats. Ownage perhaps?

Davis hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last two starts and he has struck out 13 batters over those 23 innings. He faces a tough Tigers lineup but he’s rolling so far in the young season and he does have a 3.42 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in seven career outings against the Tigers.

Corbin has allowed a total of three runs in two outings on the road this season. He faces off against the Giants in San Francisco. In three starts this season the young lefty has allowed a total of three earned runs though his 1.86 K/BB ratio isn’t exactly fantastic though in 23 innings against the Giants that number is a remarkable 15.00 (15 Ks, 1 BB).

Villanueva has allowed three runs in three starts this season leading to a 1.29 ERA and 0.81 WHIP for the Cubs. He faces the Reds in Cincinnati, a club that he has performed passably against in his career (3.99 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 40 Ks in 49.2 IP).

 

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Wilin Rosario

'Dinger, Colorado Rockies mascot' photo (c) 2006, Paul L Dineen - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ Wilin Rosario came out of relative obscurity to lead all major league catchers in home runs last season with 28 big flies (one more than A.J. Pierzynski). I for one was called out for spending $8 on him in the LABR NL-only league last season. Obviously I had the last laugh on that one. Even so, I’m reluctant to suggest Wilin will be able to match or exceed that power effort in 2013, and that means I’m pumping the breaks just a bit with the outlook of the Rockies’ catcher.

Let’s dig right into it and break down those big flies which are the reason that Rosario stood out so much last season. The position many will take will have two parts. (1) This guy plays half his games in Colorado which is a huge boost to a player’s power output. (2) He’s only got 133 games of big league experience under his belt so the best could easily be yet to come. Point by point.

(1) Rosario hit 18 of his 28 taters at home. That a player had success hitting in Colorado is about as obvious as suggesting that Lacey Chabert is mildly attractive (she’s amazing if you ask this scribe). Coors Field was, according to Park Indices, the 3rd best park in the NL for right handed power hitters to bang one out in 2012 (it was 20 percent better than the league average).

(2) Here’s where the problem comes up. Some history.

In 395 minor league games Rosario went deep 61 times. That breaks down to 21 homers per 135 games. So far in his big league career he has gone deep an average of 32 times per 135 games. I think we’re looking at a small sample size skewing the numbers, don’t you? Maybe you don’t, that’s probably why you think I’m off in suggesting that Rosario isn’t likely to maintain his homer pace from last season. Are you aware that he went deep 28 times in 396 at-bats last season? If he kept up that pace over 500 at-bats we’d be talking about a 35 homer season. There have only been three 35 homer seasons by a catcher in the 21st century by the way (Mike Piazza had two, Javier Lopez had one).

Normally when a guy hits homers at this pace it’s got a lot to do with his ability to convert fly balls into bleacher reachers, and that is the case with Rosario. After posting a 21.4 percent HR/F mark in 16 games in ’11 he backed that up with a 25.5 percent mark in ’12 leaving him with a 25.0 percent career mark. How impressive is that number? Only six other men in baseball were able to post a mark of 25.0 percent in 2012 if they accrued more than 400 plate appearances. Is Rosario this type of elite power hitter? His minor league career track record say it’s possible as he was able to also post a HR/F ratio of 24.1 percent in the minor leagues the past two years. Still, I’m always reluctant to subscribe an elite number to a player with such little experience.

Let’s say that I’m only 80 percent right which would be about 30 percent better than I normally am. Let’s say that Rosario’s HR/F rate regresses to 20 percent in 2013, still an elite number (I should point out that only 22 men in baseball had a 20 percent mark last season in a season of 400 plate appearances). The real issue is that Rosario simply doesn’t lift the ball enough. The big league fly ball rate is about 36 percent. Last year Rosario’s fly ball rate was 36.5 percent (career 36.9). He’s merely a league average fly ball hitter (the last two years his fly ball mark in the minors was about 30 percent). If he doesn’t maintain his elite HR/F ratio then he will struggle to go deep 25 times, even with a season of 450 at-bats (he had 396 last year remember). It’s not that he won’t have a shot to go deep 25+ times in 2013, it’s just that a lot of things will have to break for him to get there.

As for his batting average he hit .270 last year, just ahead of his .267 career minor league mark. That’s pretty standard fair for a catcher, especially one with power, so there’s no reason to be overly concerned. However, there’s also little to go on if you are expecting growth in this category. Wilin, and yes the guy spells his name with on “L,” posted a line drive rate of 17.5 percent in the minors in 2011. He then followed that up with a 17.3 percent mark in 2012 leaving his 133 game big league ledger at 17.6 percent. It’s pretty clear this guy isn’t wrapping out liners like the second coming of Larry Walker. A 17 percent line drive rate is well below the big league average of 19-20 percent, and it’s indicative of a .262 hitter (his career mark). Rosario has also whiffed a lot, 119 times in 450 big league at-bats, and that also doesn’t speak to growth in the batting average category.

Rosario is a solid option at catcher for the 2013 season. Much like Salvador Perez though (see Perez’s Player Profile), I fear he will be over-drafted in 2013 (I ran a poll about the relative value of Wilin on the last day of the 2012 calendar to illustrate my point). Rosario should not be drafted with the expectation that he will substantially improve upon last years numbers. In fact, I’m not even suggesting that it would be wise to expect a full repeat of his 2013 efforts unless he racks up 100 more at-bats to help mask the per at-bat drop off. Like I wrote, Rosario is a solid option behind the dish but his breakout 2012 effort is his ceiling for now.

 

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Salvador Perez

'Dave Eiland, Luis Mendoza, Salvador Perez' photo (c) 2012, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/I had the gall to suggest in late December that I wasn’t sold on Salvador Perez being a .300 hitter with 20 homer power for 2013. Seems like I touched a nerve because a whole lot of people called me out on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account for the statement. I thought I would take more than 140 characters to try and make my point this week.

* I went beyond just the suggestion on Twitter as I ran a poll asking how folks would draft Perez compared to others at the catcher’s position.

Here’s what the basic argument was with Perez and why most thought he would be a star.

He hit .311 in 148 at-bats in 2011.
He hit .301 in 289 at-bats in 2012.
He hit 11 homers in 76 games in 2012.
Obviously he is therefore going to hit .300 with 20+ homers if he gets 500 at-bats in 2013.

Let’s see…

Yes it is true that Perez has hit .311 over the course of 437 big league at-bats. Is that indicative of what we should expect from him in 2013? Perez posted a .362 BABIP as a first year player and that number predictably regressed in 2012 falling all the way to .299. It certainly happens, but it is a bit strange to see a guy hit .301 with a BABIP below .300. I’d suggest it’s not likely to continue like that, not to mention that his BABIP in the minors in 2011-12 was slightly lower than his big league mark at .311. Just pointing that out.

Following up on the BABIP talk, let’s look at his line drive rate. In 2011 that mark was 29.2 percent. He’d have to be the greatest hitter of all-time to keep that up. He isn’t and he didn’t as the mark fell to 24.2 percent in 2012. That’s still a massive number though, and one that I wouldn’t feel comfortable expecting to occur again in 2013. If logic and history aren’t enough for you to go on here, how about this fact; as a minor leaguer in the 2011-12 Perez posted a line drive rate of 19.9 percent which just so happens to be the big league average. It certainly doesn’t seem wise to expect him to match his current 25.8 percent career mark with the Royals given the totality of the data.

I would also like to point out that this guy just doesn’t walk. He has coaxed a total of 19 walks over the course of his 463 career plate appearances. That rate equates to a walk total of 21 walks per 502 plate appearances. Folks, Adam Dunn walked 26 times in the month of May last year. Moreover, do you know how many guys hit .300 last year with a walk rate as low as the 3.9 percent mark that Perez had? It’s not a long list. Here are the names… there are none. Not a single guy with 502 plate appearances in 2012 hit .300 with a walk rate under 4.0 percent. None. No one did in 2011 or 2010 either. The last guy to do it was Miguel Tejada in 2009 when he hit .313 with a 2.8 percent mark. The problem is that when you don’t see pitches and take a walk you can be pitched to. It’s also very hard for these type of hitters to pull out of a slump when they find themselves in one. It’s true that Perez makes good contact, his K-rate of 8.9 percent is very low enabling him to post a basically league average 0.40 BB/K mark, but the lack of walks are a big concern for me and should be for you as well if you are thinking he’s going to hit .300 year after year.

Sorry folks, but that’s 0-for-3 for Perez if you are trying to make the point that he is a lock to hit .300 in 2013.

What about the power you say?

(1) The easiest thing in the world is to say that ‘he hit 11 homers in 289 at-bats last year so he’ll hit 20 in a full season this year.’ Such an argument, while a good one to make at a bar on a Friday night after five midori sour’s (and let me tell you that you have to be very secure in your manhood to order one of those at a bar), just doesn’t hold up in the light of day. Even if we give Perez 500 at-bats in 2013 as a projection, an I would be remiss if I didn’t state that there were only six catchers in baseball that reached that mark last season, and let him maintain his rate of one homer per 26.3 at-bats he would still only go deep 19 times in 500 at-bats.

(2) Perez has only 14 homers in 437 career big league at bats.

(3) Perez has only 20 homers in 1,278 minor league at-bats.

(4) That’s 34 homers in 1,715 big league at-bats. What would that equate to over our hypothetical 500 at-bat season? That’s 9.9 homers folks.

(5) Perez had a fly ball rate of 27.7 percent in 2011-12 in the minors. During his big league action in 2011-12 he’s had a fly ball rate of 30.9 percent. That equates to a fly ball rate of roughly 30 percent. The big league average is about 36 percent. Therefore, if Perez is going to hit 20 homers with an inferior fly ball rate, he’s going to need to be money in the HR/F conversation ratio. He’s not. In his 115 game big league career that mark is only 11.5 percent (the big league average is usually right around 10 percent). That mark in the minors (2011-12) was 10.4 percent.

I’m sorry folks but Perez simply doesn’t profile as a .300 hitter with 20+ homer power in 2013. Could he hit .300? Sure. Could he hit 20 homers? I can’t say it’s not possible, but I highly doubt it. Would I bet any money that he would reach both marks in the coming campaign? Absolutely not. Don’t take this to mean that I wouldn’t want Perez as one of my two catchers in a mixed league. I’d have no problem at all calling his name out on draft day, but the chances of him ending up on any of my teams is small since there seems to be such a fervor over adding him in 2013.


By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Machado, Sale, Sal Perez

'Manny Machado' photo (c) 2012, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/ Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray breakdown tons of things going on around the league including Mike Trout, Manny Machado getting called up, Chris Sale having a Cy Young Type of season, Salvador Perez – champ or chump and the Astros send down one Martinez, call up another much more.

 

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Mailbag: August2, 2012

'Matt Kemp @ Vero Beach 2008' photo (c) 2008, adamclyde - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/ Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Should I trade Matt Kemp for CC Sabathia and Aroldis Chapman?
– @cooperkyle22

Do you need offense or pitching? If the goal is to improve your pitching staff, I don’t see how you could pass on dealing Kemp. I know he’s hitting .350 since the All-Star break, but let’s keep things in perspective. Kemp has twice injured his leg this season and that’s obviously one of the main reasons he’s stopped running. You have realized that he has fewer steals this year than Mark Trumbo (four to three), right? Without the steals he’s no longer an elite fantasy performer, he’s merely a great one.

Sabathia is about as boring as it gets, and that’s a compliment. Everyone on the hill struggles an is injured, and though CC hit the DL for a bit this year, he’s been the same horse he’s been for a decade now racking up a 10-3 record, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 123 Ks in 126 innings. Chapman had a rough two weeks to end June, but the guy has rebounded to the point that it could be argued, persuasively,  that he is the best pitcher in baseball. Over his last 16 games he hasn’t allowed a run, not a one. His WHIP in that time is 0.61. His K/9 rate is 19.29 with 35 in 16.1 innings. My goodness, his K/BB ratio is 11.67 an about 99.5 percent of baseball would sell their in-laws to the devil for a K/9 rate that high, let alone a K/BB ratio like that. Still, the most amazing part might be that he has 15 saves in 17 appearances.

I’d trade Kemp to get that duo.

Drop Salvador Perez and pick up Carlos Santana? Is Carlos finding his stroke?
– @GoBigEd

Last week I got a bunch of questions about Santana including one I tackled in the Mailbag. To reiterate my point from there; Santana can hit. No one should have given up on him, and he still owns the skills to be an elite hitter at the position, something I’ve steadfastly said for the entirety of the season even when he’s been struggling. The struggles are gone as he’s hitting .293 with five homers and 12 RBIs in 19 games since the All-Star break. He’s also getting on base at a .461 clip with a 1.116 OPS. He’s a top-5 catcher the rest of the way for me which means you have to choose him over Perez who has been great hitting .320 with five homers in 29 games, but here’s the issue. People’s expectations are totally, and I mean off the charts, out of control with Perez. He’s not a .327 hitter despite his career mark. He’s certainly not the type of hitting that’s going to hit 30 homers. Wipe that stuff out of your mind – it’s just not happening. At the same time, people seem to be moving on from Perez due to his recent struggles (.244, no homers, one RBI in 12 games) like they are fleeing the scene of a murder they committed behind a convenient store. As I always tell people – be realistic with your expectations. This isn’t fantasy football. You don’t want to bail on a guy, or add a guy off waivers, simply because they are hot/cold for 45 at-bats.

Is Ben Revere for Jonathan Papelbon a fair trade?
– @joeblow84

The obvious answer is not really. But that doesn’t mean the deal is a 100 percent turn down job if you own Papelbon either. In fact, it might be a good move.

We’re at the point of the season where you have to play the categories. It doesn’t matter if you win the steals category by two or 22, you still get the same amount of points in the roto game. Therefore, sometimes “lopsided” deals make sense, and this could be an example of that. If it’s draft day 2013, I can’t think there would be many people who would take Revere over Papelbon. Sure the Twins outfielder is hitting an impressive .319, and he has swiped 25 bags, but he has zero homers, has knocked in only 20 runs and he’s only scored 37 runs (a total you would assume would be much higher given all those thefts). He’s a huge boost in the average and steals category but he’s downright pathetic in homers and RBIs. Still, what if he were to hit .300 and steals 15 bases the rest of the way? Would that help boost your club in both of those categories to the point that you could gain multiple points in each category in the standings? It’s certainly possible.

Papelbon has hit a bit of a bump in the road the past couple of weeks, but overall he’s still sporting 23 saves, a 1.12 WHIP, 54 Ks in 43 innings an a 5.40 K/BB ratio. There is nothing wrong with that pitching line. After six straight years of at least 30-saves there’s no reason, none, to think he won’t get their for a seventh straight year and with all the craziness in bullpens this year how could anyone not want this guy on their staff.

Check out the standings. If it makes sense for to add the average and steals, deal for Revere. If it makes sense for you to hold on to Papelbon so that you don’t fall too far in the saves category, then hold on the righty reliever from Philly.

Ryan Ludwick or Josh Rutledge for my UTIL spot?
– @lugnut106

Ludwick is hitting like it’s 2008 when he blasted 37 homers with 113 RBIs for the Cards. He’s never been able to recapture that form in the intervening years, but right now he’s killing it for the Reds with 19 homers and 56 RBIs in just 80 games played. Even better, he’s murdering pitches with eight homers, 23 RBIs an a .354 batting average over his last 23 contests. In fact, the last four weeks he leads the NL in RBIs an is just one off the NL lead in homers (Brian McCann and Ike Davis each have nine). You can’t expect him to keep up this pace of course, but overall not much really stands out in his batting line as his season long numbers are nearly identical to his career averages in AVG/OBP, BB/K, BABIP, GB/FB etc. He has elevated his HR/F rate at 22 percent, well above his 13 percent career mark, but the rest is pretty standard Ludwick stuff.

Rutledge has killed it since Troy Tulowitzki went down, and he figures to slide over to second base when Tulo is back in action (oddly, only eight percent of players over at Fleaflicker have added him to their rosters). Hitting .382 with four homers in 68 at-bats, the question isn’t whether Josh will slow, it’s how much will be slow. A guy with a 50 percent ground ball rate shouldn’t also have a 24 percent HR/F mark, especially when that same player only hit 22 homers in 211 minor league games. Give his approach at the plate, chiefly never talking a walk, his BB/K mark is awful at 0.20. There are but a few players in baseball who can approach that number and hit .300. Even fewer can sustain the .400 BABIP he’s currently rocking (truthfully, no one sustains that pace).

Both players will slow but I’d take Ludwick who has produced at these levels before and figures to be a better bet to keep the power stroke flowing. Since we are talking about a utility player I’m not concerned with the obvious advantage that Rutledge brings because of the position he plays.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Fantasy Beat – Pitchers Down, Catchers Up

'Matt Harrison and Taylor Teagarden' photo (c) 2009, Keith Allison - license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/ Trevor Ray and Justin Fensterman discuss some injured pitchers and some possible streaming options. They also discuss a couple of catcher options that are great waiver wire pickups.

Evan Longoria, Ryan Dempster, Brandon Beachy, Felipe Paulino, Brandon Morrow, Matt Harrison, Clayton Richard, Salvador Perez, Derek Norris, Martin Maldanado

 

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.