Nirvana… Again

Nearly two years ago to the day I wrote the first Nirvana piece. That piece started out… “In the grand scheme of things a championship in sports means nothing, and the life of one person is also rendered insignificant when placed in the context of the world. But I gotta tell you, in this corner of the sphere that we all inhabit, there have been few things that can rival what has occurred over the last 24 hours.” And it happened, again…

For the second time in three years the San Francisco Giants were triumphant in the World Series. For a team that moved to California in 1958, legions of Bay Area fans lived through the decades of defeat. Now, they have been able to bask in the glow of greatness twice in three years. Words escape me to describe what it feels like to witness the triumph yet again. OK, maybe they don’t (you know me so well). Here are some interesting factoids from their run of excellence.

The Giants won their 7th championship, and for those that think Giants fans are used to winning remember that the team has been in existence for 130 years.

The Giants became the first NL team to win two championships in three years since the Big Red Machine won in back-to-back years in 1975-76. In fact, they are only the 5th NL team, ever, to do it (Cubs 1907-08, NY Giants 1921-22, Cardinals ’44 and ’46, Dodgers ’63 and ’65).

The Giants are the 5th team in history to win the World Series after finishing last in baseball in homers.

The Giants led the Tigers for 56-straight innings before Miguel Cabrera’s HR in the 3rd inning of Game 4. It was the second longest streak in post-season history.

Over the last seven games of the playoffs the Giants team ERA was 0.98. The starters ERA was much higher… 0.99.

Giants relievers pitched 11.2 innings in the World Series allowing two hits, two runs and striking out 17.

Tim Lincecum threw five games out of the bullpen in the playoffs and over those 13 innings he posted a 0.69 ERA while striking out 17 batters.

Buster Posey hit only .200 in the playoffs, but in the three series clinching games Posey drove in six runs while hitting two homers.

Pablo Sandoval won the World Series MVP Award as he hit .500 with three homers. Only three other men have reached both of those totals in a World Series – Babe Ruth (1928), Lou Gehrig (1928, 1932) and Hideki Matsui (2009). He still needs to lose about 45 lbs, but there is no disputing that the man can hit.

Marco Scutaro, nicknamed “The Blockbuster” by his teammates (cause he was the blockbuster addition of the trade deadline), had about as impressive four month run you will ever see from a non-elite player. Scutaro hit .362 with the Giants over 61 games and tied Derek Jeter for the major league lead with 88 hits in that time. Scutaro then went on to hit .500 in the Giants 7-game victory over the Cardinals in the NLCS, and over his last 11 playoff games he had at least two hits eight times. Fittingly it was his hit in the 10th inning that led to the Giants’ World Series victory.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June20, 2012

(1) Troy Tulowitzki having more tests run. Is his season in doubt?

(2) Mark Trumbo mashing with the big boys. Can’t keep it up, can he?

(3) Barry Zito caving – what a shock.

(4) Should you be worried about Ryan Cook? Maybe?

(5) Aramis Ramirez, predictably, is heating up.

(6) Shaun Marcum says elbow is alright.

(7) Bullpen updates: Jose Valverde, J.J. Putz and John Axford struggling while Carlos Marmol’s arrow is going up.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Matt Cain

There are other pitchers who make more money, who have more fame, and who reach greater heights than Matt Cain (it’s pretty tough for Cain to get a footing in the national conscience when one of the five biggest stories in baseball on the hill happens to be his teammate, Tim Lincecum). At the same time, there my be no hurler in baseball who is more consistent than the Giants #2 starter who will be looking for one more big season as he heads into free agency after the 2012 season.

Cain has never won 15 games in a season, basically the bare minimum for one to be considered an ace. In fact, he’s only won in double-digit’s in four of the last six years which might lead you to think that he isn’t anything to write home about. However, if you’ve followed Cain closely over the years, you know the story – the Giants simply have an aversion to scoring runs when he is on the hill. Just take a look at his earned run averages over the past five years:

3.65, 3.76, 2.89, 3.14, 2.88

The last three years his ERA has been borderline elite, an in fact his 2.97 mark in that time frame is the sixth best mark in baseball for hurlers who have thrown at least 480-innings as he bested arms like Jered Weaver (3.03), Justin Verlander (3.06) and CC Sabathia (3.18). Unfortunately Cain has won 14, 13 and 12 games the past three years as the Giants anemic offense simply hasn’t supported him sufficiently leaving him on the outskirts looking in when talk roles around to the games greats. Still, consistency is his hallmark.

Cain owns a 1.20 career WHIP, and the last three seasons his WHIP has been 1.18, 1.08 and 1.08. Moreover, his base runner per nine mark of 10.25 is the 8th best mark in baseball the past three seasons and better than Felix Hernandez (10.51), Cole Hamels (10.55) and Tim Lincecum (10.79). He’s obviously been extremely consistent the past three years.

Cain has struck out at least 163 batters each of the past six years. Only three others hurlers are in that group (CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez and Dan Haren). In his last four years Cain has been over 170 Ks, and the last three years his totals have been 171, 177 and 179. Yet again, he’s obviously been extremely consistent the past three years.

One aspect of Cain’s game that is elite is his ability to take the ball every five games. In his first full season he tossed “only” 190.2 innings, but in each of his last five seasons he has thrown at least 200-innings. In this day and age, the ability to throw 200-innings year after year is a rare trait (only six others have thrown 200-innings each of the past six years: Roy Halladay, James Shields, Justin Verlander, Mark Buehrle, Dan Haren and CC Sabathia).

I could go on and on with Cain, highlighting things like his remarkable 3-year run in BABIP (.263, .252 and .260), but I think the point is clear: Cain is a  borderline elite arm who will throw a lot of innings, pile up strong strikeout totals, and provide you with top of the heap ratios. He may not rack up wins with the elite, his total of 39 is tied for 12th in the game the past three years, but all of his other fantasy numbers will help you to win a championship. I must admit to some trepidation given that his GB/FB is just 0.84 for his career, and that his HR/F ratio is just 6.5 percent, but for now, pitching half his games in the pitcher’s ball yard in San Francisco will minimize those concerns. Cain shouldn’t be your #1 starter in mixed leagues, but if he is your #2 arm, you’ll be sitting in a nice spot.

By Ray Flowers

Nirvana

In the grand scheme of things a championship in sports means nothing, and the life of one person is also rendered insignificant when placed in the context of the world. But I gotta tell you, in this corner of the sphere that we all inhabit, there have been few things that can rival what has occurred over the last 24 hours.

I’ve never been married or ever welcomed a child into this world, so I don’t have that frame of reference to draw upon, but I can tell you this – in the pantheon of events that have shaped my life, this event ranks near the top of the list.

Willie May, Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Juan Marichal, Barry Bonds – some of the greatest players ever to done a uniform – were never able to bring a World Championship to San Francisco. In more recent years players such as Jeff Leonard, Will Clark, Kevin Mitchell, John Burkett, John Beck and Jeff Kent were also unable to bring the World Series trophy home to San Francisco.

On Monday night, November 1st, 2010, that all changed.

The names will likely be forgotten in a few years if you aren’t a Giants fan. Honestly, some of the players might not even be at the forefront of your mind right now (Sergio Romo, Travis Ishikawa, Javier Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Fontenot, Nate Schierholtz), but isn’t that the wonder of baseball? The sport is more than one great player leading a team to victory through sheer will and determination. The grind of six months of a regular season an another month for the playoffs offers the chance for numerous players to make history or to step to the fore at a moments notice. Cody Ross? I mean seriously, unless you were a Marlins’ fan or a fantasy baseball addict, did you even know who he was prior to the postseason? Edgar Renteria? Wasn’t he washed up and heading off into retirement after the worst season of his career (.276-3-22)? My goodness, he didn’t even start the first five games of the playoffs for the Giants. But that was the beauty of the 2010 Giants. They may not have been a team filled with “names,” but they had timely hitting, excellent work behind the bench by Bruce Bochy, and some of the best pitching the game has seen in this century.

As for me, the day after is surreal. For every year of my life that I have consciously been aware of the game of baseball, I have lived and died with the Giants. I’ve lost sleep worrying about games, I’ve skipped out on dates with pretty ladies to watch games, and I’ve nearly given myself an ulcer with each gut wrenching failure I have endured along with the club. So when Brian Wilson threw that final strike last night, what was my response? Did I jump up and down? Did I scream at the top of my lungs? Did I get plowed to the point that I forgot my own name? The truth is I didn’t do any of those things. Instead, I looked over to my parents, both of whom who have been there right with me nearly every step of the way, and simply smiled and said “wow.”

It may not have been a celebration for the ages in the Flowers’ household, but I can tell you this – other than those major life events, like my parents wedding, my brother and I being born, my brother having two wonderful children of his own, it was one of the happiest moments of our lives.

Thank you San Francisco Giants. It was a long time in coming, but as I’ve written before, it was all worth it as I can now walk down the street, #1 finger held high in the air, with a huge smile on my face. We, and yes I’m including myself and all the Giants’ fans in the world, WE are World Champions.

By Ray Flowers

The Case of Barry Zito

I went to the Giants and Mets game last Friday night, and besides the fact that I had a great time with my family, I also was able to witness one of the better pitched games of the big league season as the Giants emerged victorious by the score of 1-0. In that game, oft put down Barry Zito twirled a gem allowing a mere two hits with 10 strikeouts over eight shutout innings as he baffled the Mets all night with his change of speeds and his trademark 12-to-6 curve. So, how serious should you take Barry Zito as a fantasy option in mixed leagues for the second half?

Zito currently has a 3.51 ERA, and after 3-seasons in San Francisco with a mark over 4.00 that is obviously some major improvement. Zito also has a 1.26 WHIP, again another San Fran best (1.35 was is his best mark in the orange and black). Has he pitched better than in years past, but has he merely been lucky in 2010? According to Fielding Independent Pitching ERA his mark is 3.75, and that would be his best mark since 2001. Zito also has a 3.28 Component ERA and a 3.84 DIPS ERA, so he has pitched pretty well this season, especially compared to that past couple of years as he has struggled to live up to the expectations of his $126 million deal.

As for his WHIP, you can thank a couple of things for his return to better than league average in that measure. First off he is two tenths below his career BB/9 mark of 3.71 at 3.51, and fewer walks obviously lead to fewer runners on base (yeah, I just typed that completely asinine comment. Perhaps we should blame the copious amount of vodka I drank this afternoon for that). That walk rate would also be his best mark since 2004. Secondly, Zito continues to be an extremely difficult batter to get a hit off of. He’s currently sporting a .239 batting average against, an exact match for his career mark, and his best mark since 2005 when he held hitters to a .221 mark. The good news is that his hit rate is .279, .004 points above his career mark, so clearly he isn’t operating at a level that makes you think a regression is coming when the hits start falling. At the same time his BAA could increase in the second half given that his current line drive rate is 17.4 percent – it’s been over 20 percent each of the past three years.

All of that brings up an interesting point. I know it’s arbitrary and really has no basis for mattering one iota, but Zito has clearly been a better pitcher in the second half of the season in his career, and by a substantial margin. Here is the data.

Pre All-Star: 65-70, 4.18 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6.61 K/9, 1.75 K/BB, .250 BAA
Post All-Star: 76-40, 3.39 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.92 K/9, 1.91 K/BB, .224 BAA

Usually I don’t put too much value in breakdowns like this, but in the case of Zito the data is so stark that it must be taken seriously.

Zito is a mixed league option right now, and he figures to be in the second half as well. At the same time his K/9 mark (6.66), K/BB rate (1.90) and GB/FB ratio (0.82) are pretty much league average, so any improvement in his performance in the second half might be hard to come by. Still, he doesn’t figure to be an anchor in the ratio categories, but when he is twirling that knee buckling curve of his like he was on Friday night there aren’t many hurlers who are more fun to watch.

By Ray Flowers

Sunday Night Appearance

No that isn’t me being interviewed by a gorgeous blonde, but I will be interviewed tonight by ProRumors.com. Here are the details.

We discussed the San Francisco Giants and the NL West in general. It was a whole lot of fun.

If you want to listen to the show, simply click on the link to ProRumors.com. I come in around the 16 minute mark.

By Ray Flowers