Numbers: A Look Back

Each week I write a piece entitled By The Numbers where I break down all forms of interesting information from the baseball diamond. In this entry I’m gonna take that same idea but go back in time with my time machine as I’ll list a bunch of interesting numbers and facts that pertain to players that have been immortalized in the HOF.

Luis Aparacio led the AL in steals in each of his first nine seasons in the league (his high was 56). From 1960-64 he stole 51, 53, 31, 40 and 57 bases each season. While none of those totals are outlandish, it should be pointed out that the game was played differently back then with base runners rarely attempting a steal. In fact, during that five year only one other rival was able to steal as many as 30 bases in a season.

Yogi Berra is one of the greatest hitting catchers of all-time (11 times he went deep 20 times and nine times he produced at least 90 RBI). He also won the MVP award on three separate occasions. But perhaps the most amazing number of all in his career is the fact that he struck out 12 times, twelve, in 1950 over the span of 597 at-bats. He was no slap hitter that year either producing a batting line of .322 with 28 homers and 124 RBI for the Yankees.

Sandy Koufax led the NL in ERA each of the last five seasons of his career (he had to retire with elbow problems at the age of merely 30). Three times he posted a mark below 1.90, and his five year run resulted in an overall ERA of 1.95 in that time. He also went 111-34 during that five year year of excellence for the Dodgers (.766 winning percentage).

Juan Marichal led baseball with 191 victories during the 1960′s. Three times in that decade he won at least 25 games, but he was never able to win the Cy Young award

Bill Mazeroski made the Hall of Fame despite the fact that he never hit even .285 in a season. Moreover his career mark was .260, he had a pathetic .299 OBP, and his career OPS was a frightening .267. He did however make six All-Star teams while also winning eight Gold Gloves as one of the finest fielding second basemen of all-time. It’s ironic that he is most remembered for hitting the first walk-off homer in World Series history in Game 7 when the Pirates defeated the Yankees in 1960 on his blast.

Amos Rousie is a HOF pitchers who won 246 games in his career with a 3.07 ERA from 1889-1901 (he won 30-games 4-straight seasons). Still, he was far from a control artist as he led the league in walks five straight seasons with a high of 289 batters in 1890, the most ever in a single season. At the same time you’ll want to cut the guy a little bit of slack since he tossed 548.2 innings in that season. In fact, in the five seasons that he led the league in walks, each season with at least 200 free passes, he never threw less than 444 innings. During that fateful season of 1890 his BB/9 rate was 4.74 which is actually a hair lower than the 4.78 mark that Scott Kazmir currently has to lead the “worst” list of 2010.

Hoyt Wilhelm was the first pitcher in big league history to win the ERA title despite the fact that he spent the entire season in the bullpen. In 1952, his rookie season mind you, Hoyt led the league with a 2.43 ERA and 71 games pitched. Since the NL played 154 games that year, his total of 159.1 innings was enough for him to qualify for the ERA title. He won 15 games and saved 11 on his way to another league leading figure, a .833 winning percentage.

Ted Williams won the Triple Crown in 1942 (.356-36-137) and 1947 (.343-32-114). He didn’t win the MVP in either season as he finished second in ’42 and ’47. Amazingly, Williams also led the league in OBP each season (.499 and .497) as well as SLG (.648 and .634) yet he still wasn’t awarded the trophy. Moreover, and this is truly amazing, from 1941-42, and 1946-49 (he missed 1943-45 serving in World War II), Williams led the AL in OBP and SLG in each and every season. All told, he led the AL in both slash categories an amazing nine times. As great as Albert Pujols is he has done that only one time (in 2009).

By Ray Flowers

Robbed of Greatness

Nomar Garciaparra returned to the Red Sox today as he signed a 1-day minor league contract to retire with the team that he starred with years ago. “From the first day I had the thrill of putting on a Red Sox uniform and playing in front of all the great fans at Fenway Park, I have felt at home in Boston,” Garciaparra said. “While I had the privilege of playing with other legendary teams, I always saw myself retiring in a Red Sox uniform.”

How great could he have been if his body didn’t betray him?

From 1997 when he won the Rookie of the Year award (.306-30-98-122-22) through 2000, Nomar was one of the best hitters in all of baseball.

He was second in hits (791).
He was 3rd in average (.337).
He was 3rd in doubles (174).
He was 6th in extra base hits (313).
He was 15h in OPS (.963).

During those four years an average Nomar season produced a batting line of .337-28-105-110-13. That was an “average” Nomar season. To put that effort in perspective, Albert Pujols has NEVER had even one season that he met all of those numbers.

Moreover, Nomar’s numbers as a shortstop, even with all the injuries that ruined his career, still place him amongst the best that have ever played the game at that position.

Nomar is:

2nd in OPS (.914)
3rd in SLG (.546)
5th in batting average (.320)
8th in home runs (190)

But because of the injuries that ravaged his body, the triumvirate of Nomar, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez didn’t play out the way everyone had hoped. Nomar was beat down with injuries, A-Roid moved to third, and Jeter just kept on keeping on for the Yankees. Still, Nomar’s career numbers stack up very well against the other two. Don’t believe me? Check this out.

Nomar: .313/.361/.521 for an .882 OPS
Jeter: .317/.406/.465 for an .847 OPS
A-Rod: .305/.390/.576 with a .965 OPS

OK, it’s not really fair to compare the trio since they all bring different talents to the dish, but clearly Nomar was the equal of Jeter at the plate despite what you hear from people (A-Rod is in a league of his own).

I’ve heard the lame ‘but Jeter has all the championships” to “prove” why he is better than Nomar, but as I wrote on the Baseball Guys’ Twitter Page today – “It’s not tennis. One player can’t win a championship.” The next line of thought in this vein is that Jeter is sooooo “clutch.” Well anecdotally he might be, and I have to admit that he does always seem to come through late in the year, but the data says that Nomar was every bit the hitter that Jeter was when the pressure was at it’s most intense. Here are the numbers for each player with RISP for their entire careers.

Jeter: .308/.403/.429
Nomar: .324/.394/.527

The numbers certainly don’t tell the whole story, but they clearly show that Nomar was money when the pressure was on.

How good could Garciaparra been if he had stayed healthy? Nomar won the Rookie of the Year award in 1997 and made six All-Star appearances in his career. He also owns one of only two seasons in baseball history, the other belongs to A-Rod, in which a shortstop hit .300 with 30 homers, 95 RBI, 120 runs and 20 steals. Nomar also owns the third highest single season batting average for a shortstop (.372) since 1900 (Luke Appling hit .388 in 1936 while Arky Vaughan hit .385 in 1935). That’s a pretty impressive set of numbers for a guy who’s prime was far too short.

If he had stayed healthy there is no doubt whatsoever that Nomar would have made the Hall of Fame. However, it simply wasn’t meant to be so he will have to live with the fact that, like Sandy Koufax, his career could have been oh so much more if huis body hadn’t betrayed him.

Note: You can read more about Nomar at Sox Tea Party.

By Ray Flowers

Big Unit Calls it a Career

One of the greatest lefties in the history of the game, Randy Johnson, retired on Tuesday leaving a legacy of domination in his wake.

By Ray Flowers

The Other Deal

Earlier today I broke down the big deal of the day as the Yankees picked up Javier Vazquez in exchange for Melky Cabrera and a couple of prospects (you can read all about the deal at Breaking Down: Javier Vazquez). Here, I’ll break down “the other deal” dealing with two potentially dominating righties.

Note: You can also read Paul Bruno’s take on the deal at JaysFan.com.

THE DEAL

Mariners receive: RHP Brandon League and minor leaguer (either OF Yohermyn Chavez or C Brian Jeroloman)
Blue Jays receive: Brandon Morrow.

Mariners Haul

We don’t know yet which minor leaguer will be included with Brandon League. Neither option is a top flight, sure fire star at the big league level, but most pundits seem to favor Chavez even though he isn’t amongst the top-10 prospects in the Blues organization (Jeroloman can pick it behind the dish, but his bat is sorely lacking).

League throws a heavy, and I mean power-sinking fastball that has averaged 95.5 mph during his big league career. When you combine that heat with the darting, downward action, it’s hardly a surprise that League has held batters to a .258 batting average in his career (the surprise is that the number is that high). A potentially dominating strikeout arm – he had 76 punchouts in just 74.2 innings last season – League is much, much better than the 3-6 record with a 4.58 ERA that he posted last season. The biggest plus on his side is that he has brought his walk rate down two years running, and last years 2.53 BB/9 mark allowed him to post a strong 3.62 K/BB ratio given his strikeout abilities. And that is just it. If League throws strikes and avoids the walk he could potentially dominate. Don’t forget that this man owns a 3.13 GB/FB ratio in his career, and when you strike out a batter per inning and have a GB/FB mark better than three, well, they usually end up putting your face on the cover of a video game.

Blue Jays Haul

Brandon Morrow was drafted 5th overall out of the University of California at Berkley in 2006. Standing 6’3″ and weighing about 200 lbs, Morrow has one of those arms that scouts simply fall all over themselves to sign. The owner of a 95 mph fastball, batters have little chance to hit him when he is “on,” a fact reflected in his .223 BAA mark through 197.2 career innings. In that time Morrow has posted a solid 3.96 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning with 204, so why would the Mariners consider trading this 25 year old who most scouts think will either be a #2 or #3 starter? The Mariners must have grown tired of his inability to throw strikes. In his brief career, remember batters hit just .223 against him and he owns a 9.29 K/9 mark, Morrow has handed out free passes like Santa gives out hope during the Christmas season. Morrow posted a 5.68 BB/9 mark last season in 69.2 innings and that was an improvement over his career mark of 5.83.

It should also be pointed out that he has spent time as a starter and reliever (the Mariners yanked him around the past two years which certainly hasn’t helped his development). Here are his numbers in both roles.

Reliever: 3.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 10.12 K/9, .217 BAA in 118.1 IP
Starter: 4.42 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 8.05 K/9, .232 BAA in 79.1 IP

The numbers regress a bit when he has starts, hardly a shock given the 100 percent all the time attitude hurlers can take when working only an inning out of the bullpen.

MOVING FORWARD

As nice a power arm as League has, and let’s face the Mariners are certainly wise to be hedging their bets with David Aardsma who had a lot of ninth inning success last year despite some rather odd totals in his pitching line (like a sky-high fly ball rate but a miniscule HR/F mark), I just don’t understand this deal at all. Morrow certainly needs to figure out a way to harness his stuff, but if he does this young man is a potential all-star. Not that he will ever amount to anything remotely like guys such as Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax, but the history of the game is littered with plenty of hard throwers who took a few years to get their barrings (it’s also why a guy like Oliver Perez is making $12 million a year). If Aardsma implodes and League goes on to save 30 games than no one will likely be too upset, but if Morrow locates his control and rips off a bunch of 15 victory, 200 K seasons this is going to look like one awful move. You gotta love what the Blue Jays are doing this off-season as their new front office group clearly is bringing in boatloads of talent to vie for major league jobs.

By Ray Flowers

World Series Wrap Up

I know it’s a bit late to put a bow on the World Series, but I was out of town at the Arizona Fall League looking at the rookies that will make their mark in the coming campaigns (you can read my thoughts in AFL Impressions). So, before we leave the 2009 baseball season and start looking toward the 2010 campaign, here are some of my closing thoughts on how things played out with the Yankees and the Phillies in the Fall Classic.

The Yankees have won 27 World Series. If you add up team’s #2-4 on the list you end up with a mere total of 26 championships – St. Louis (10), Oakland (nine) and Boston (seven). Moreover, the Yankees ended the third longest drought in franchise history at eight seasons without a championship. The two longer streaks were 17 (1979-95) and 14 (1963-76) seasons. By the way, the Nationals, Rangers, Rays, Mariners, Padres, Brewers, Astros and Rockies are still looking for their first championship.

Cliff Lee became the first pitcher since Don Newcomb in 1949 to have a game of 10 or more strikeouts and zero walks (in fact, he tossed back-to-back such outings in the NLCS and his first series start). In his two starts against the Yankees, Lee struck out 13 batters, walked just three and went 2-0.

Andy Pettitte is the all-time leader in post-season victories with 18. Pettitte also used the 2009 playoffs to become just the third pitcher in history to emerge with a victory in all three clinching games (division series, league championship and World Series). The other hurlers are Derek Lowe in 2004 and Freddy Garcia in 2005. Still, this talk that Pettitte is one of the greatest clutch pitchers of all-time is ludicrous. Sure he leads the way in the win column, but don’t overlook the fact that he has made 40 starts in front of some dominating offenses. Sample size people, look it up if you don’t understand what I’m talking about (Some People Never Learn is a good place to start).

For all this talk that Alex Rodriguez is a choke artist, it may be time to change that broken record. After all, the guy hit .365 with six homers, 18 RBI and 15 runs scored in 15 playoff games. On yeah, he was pretty good at getting on base (.500 OBP) and piling up bases as well (.808 OPS). With this amazing post-season A-Rod how owns a .302/.409/.568 line in 199 post-season at-bats, numbers that are almost an exact duplication of his career line during the regular season (.305/.390/.576).

If you want to talk about chocking under pressure, the very thought of which I find to be complete poppycock – like and MVP performer will suddenly just devolve into a sniveling morass of failure merely because it’s the playoffs – your gaze would have to fall on Ryan Howard. The big fella hit only .174 in 23 at-bats in the Series with a whopping total of 13 strikeouts, the most ever in the World Series. After striking out eight times in his first nine post-season games this year, Howard simply hit a rough patch at the absolute worst time.

Derek Jeter has played 138 post-season games in his career, basically just a bit under a full major league season. How has he done? To the surprise of no one he has been terrific with a .313 average, 20 homers, 55 RBI, 99 runs and 16 steals. Pressure, what pressure?

Hideki Matsui was awarded the World Series MVP in part because of his .615 average (8-for-13), the third highest ever in the Series (Billy Hatcher hit .750 in 1990 while Babe Ruth hit .625 in 1928). Matsui also knocked in eight runs to tie the World Series mark which was, fittingly, last reached by Reggie Jackson in 1978.

And finally I’ll close my coverage by calling on the best post-season closer in history in Mariano Rivera. The Yanks’ closer has posted an amazing 0.99 ERA in 36.1 World Series innings, and shockingly that number is merely 5th amongst guys who have tossed at least 30-innings in the Series. Here are the men who are ahead of him.

0.83 – Harry Brecheen in 32.2 IP
0.87 – Babe Ruth in 31 IP
0.89 – Sherry Smith in 30.1 IP
0.95 – Sandy Koufax in 57 IP

Rivera is tremendous, but he has a ways to go if he wants to match the dominance that Koufax showed, or that of Christy Mathewson who posted an utterly amazing 1.06 mark over 101.2 innings.

By Ray Flowers

Some People Never Learn

I thought we were past this. I thought after all the analysis we’ve been spewing over the past five years that the mainstream media has finally gotten “it.” I guess we’re not done yet.

I recently was flipping through the pages of my Sporting News Magazine when I came across an article in which they asked a bunch of baseball people to rate who the best players in the game are (Albert Pujols came out on top). While I might disagree with some of the order of their choices, that isn’t germane to my concern here. My concern is that people in the mainstream media, and remember these are the people that vote for the Hall of Fame folks, just don’t understand how the game, and the measurement used to speak to the game, work.

What do I mean. Simply put nothing means anything without context. Think I’m crazy? Here is a series of numbers. Can you tell me what they mean with no supporting context?

13, 60, 73, 511 and 911

My shoe size.
The single season home run record set by Babe Ruth in 1927.
The new single season home run record set by Barry Bonds in 2001.
The career victory total of Cy Young.
The famous model number for Porsche’s.

The point is without some sort of context, the numbers mean nothing at all.

So when I read the Sporting News breakdowns I wasn’t shocked, though I was dismayed, to realize that people that are supposed to be “in the know” still, well, don’t know.

Here is an example. The article talks about how Josh Hamilton hit 32 home runs and had 130 RBI in his first full season in Texas while Juan Gonzalez had only 27 HR and 102 RBI. That would lead you to think that Hamilton is a much better player wouldn’t it?. However, let’s use some context. Hamilton was 27 years old last season while Gonzo was just 21 in his first full season. Oh, and in case you were wondering, by the time Gonzalez was 27 he had four seasons of 40 home runs and 100-RBI.

Another example? There is a note that Victor Martinez has more RBI at the age of 30 than fellow catcher Carlton Fisk. The context that is left out here is that Fisk had 468 RBI through his 30 year old season, but that he then went on to record 866 RBI over the remainder of his career that lasted until he was 45 years of age. Do you honestly think that V-Mart has another 1,700+ games in him as did Fisk? Martinez better keep whacking that ball around the yard at a prodigious pace if wants to surpass the 1,300+ RBI that Fisk had in his career, and let me tell you something – it ain’t gonna happen (Martinez would have to average 85 RBI for the next 10 years to catch him).

And here might be the topper. The article actually says, and I quote, that Carlos Zambrano’s winning percentage of .615 “…is the same as Sandy Koufax when he was 28.” Seriously? Besides the fact that wins and loses are a putrid way to measure the success or failure of a hurler, there is also the context that by every conceivable measure known to mankind shows that Koufax was a vastly superior pitcher to Zambrano making any comparison between the two fallacious. Here are some examples.

In his 29 and 30 year old season’s Koufax went 53-17, to push his winning percentage up to .655 in his career. In addition, he also posted a 1.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.55 K/9 and a 4.72 K/BB ratio in those two seasons, numbers Zambrano has never even sniffed in his career. Oh yeah, Koufax also tossed 659 innings in those two seasons, or more than the 619 that Zambrano has tossed in his last three seasons!

But even this isn’t fair because it isn’t putting Koufax’s performance in the context of the era in which he pitched. I mean really, how do you compare a guy who tossed 330-innings in a season to a guy who throws 200? How do you compare a guy who posted an ERA of 2.76 in his career, to a guy who owns a 3.50 mark like Zambrano? Context my friends. By comparing each pitcher to their contemporaries we find that Koufax produced an ERA that was 31% better than the league average when he pitched, whereas Zambrano, pitching in a more “offensive era” has been 27% better than the league average. What this shows is that their performance, when compared to era in which they pitched, were actually similar despite the fact that Zambrano’s raw ERA is three-quarters of a run higher. The answer to all of this comparison business is context.

So next time you read one of these historical articles comparing players, make sure you do something that most of the writers never do – put whatever you are studying under the microscope, sprinkle in some context, and come up with an “answer” that is likely more accurate than that of the man or woman who is being paid to write the piece.

By Ray Flowers

Pedro or Koufax?

Injuries are everywhere in baseball, and there are some rather substantial fantasy names worth mentioning. However, before I get to that, I’m going to spend a moment detailing two hurlers who used to be as good as anyone in the game at their craft before injuries rendered them as non-entities the past few seasons.

The Angels are really scouring the bottom of the barrel, either that or they think its 2001. The have been linked to hurlers Mark Mulder and Pedro Martinez according to the L.A. Times. Mulder’s career has been derailed by a shoulder injury that he has never been able to recover from. Too bad too since he won at least 15-games in 5-straight years from 2001-05. During that time he also posted an ERA below 3.65 in four of the seasons. He used to be one hell of a hurler. As for Pedro, his work compared to the league average shows him to possibly be one of the five best hurlers in big league history though he too has been beset by injuries rendering him as an ineffective hurler for each of the past two seasons. He certainly would be a better bet to offer any substantive value from these two hurlers. Oh, and if you aren’t sure that Pedro really was as good as I stated, take a look at this comparison.

Sandy Koufax: 165-87, .655 Win%, 9.3 K/9, 2.93 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP, 2.76 ERA
Pedro Martinez: 214-99, .684 Win%, 10.1 K/9, 4.14 K/BB, 1.05 WHIP, 2.91 ERA

Need more convincing? Here is each hurler’s average season per 162 games.

Koufax: 16-8, 2.76 ERA, 229 K, 1.11 WHIP in 222 IP
Pedro: 17-8, 2.91 ERA, 244 K, 1.05 WHIP in 218 IP

And the coup de gras? How about this.

Though Koufax has a better raw ERA (2.76 to 2.91), he pitched in an era dominated by hurlers, whereas Pedro pitched when balls were flying out of the yard like never before. Therefore, Pedro was much better against the league average than was Koufax.

Koufax finished his career with an ERA+ of 131 meaning his ERA was 31% better than the league average. That mark ties Koufax for 33rd all-time with Roy Halladay and Roberto Hernandez (minimum 1,000-IP).

As for Pedro, who remember had a slightly higher raw total, his ERA+ is currently 154. That means his ERA has been 54% better than the league average, the best mark in the history of baseball for any starting pitcher (Mariano Rivera is the all-time leader at an unmistakably brilliant 200).

Yeah, Pedro could pitch, and to say he was one of the five best really isn’t as outlandish as you might think. I have no doubt he can still get batters out if he signs a contract to take the hill.