Mailbag: August 23, 2011

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account. Keep em coming ladies and gents.

1st place in saves, up 12 on next guy. Bad idea to drop Neftali Feliz and pick up an SP? I have Craig Kimbrel and Drew Storen as my active RPs.
– @silaPssoR

A 30 save closer gets about five saves a month (there are six months in a season). There are roughly five weeks left in the regular season. Let’s say that equates to seven saves. If you have two guys operating at that level, Kimbrel and Storen certainly have been elite save options, then you  would record 14 saves the rest of the way from that duo even if you let Feliz go (for more on how amazing that Kimbrel has been this season see Best Duo Ever?). Since the fella in second place is 12 saves behind he’s going to have a long way to go to catch you since. I’d say that unless both Kimbrel and Storen crap out (not likely), and unless the guy in second place has four quality saves men on his team, that you would be safe making the move away from Feliz to add a quality starter for the stretch run. Just hope the fella in second doesn’t add Feliz.

Freddy Garcia or Mike Minor ROTW?
– @BobOfBowie

Garcia has had a rather remarkable season for a guy who was left for dead, that is when he isn’t playing with steak knives (he should return to pitch on Saturday for the Yankees). Despite a league average WHIP of 1.31, Garcia has managed to win 10 games while posting a solid 3.16 ERA. He was also on a role allowing three or fewer earned runs in nine of 10 outings before the setback. Still, his K/9 is poor (5.96), his K/BB league average (2.19) and his GB/FB ratio poor (0.90). He simply doesn’t grade out very well when you break down his skills.

Minor has pitched well since being recalled to the bigs. Over his last three outings he has gone 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. More impressively he has racked up 20 Ks and allowed just four walks in those 17.1 innings. Add in his last start in June and he’s struck out 29 against five walks while posting a 2.96 ERA the last four times he’s taken the hill. It’s taking him a while to get going, Brandon Beachy kind of stole his thunder in Atlanta (more on that in a minute), but Minor is starting to flash the skills that made him one of the top left-handed youngsters headed into the season.

Minor is the better arm, the “upside” play that everyone loves to target. However, he’s quite possibly going to lost his spot in the Braves’ rotation. With Jair Jurrjens already back, and Tommy Hanson (shoulder) about a 10 or so days away, Minor doesn’t appear likely to remain a starter. If you need the wins go with Garcia, but realize the better pitcher at this point is actually Minor.

Add Brandon Beachy and drop Ubaldo Jimenez?
– @TheGregFocker

Beachy continues to impress this season. Since July 20th he has made six starts and allowed more than two earned runs just one time. In fact, his ERA in that stretch is 2.48, his WHIP 1.07, his K/9 rate 9.7 and his K/BB ratio is 3.25. He’s clearly locked in right now.

As for Jimenez, yikes. Things weren’t great in Colorado (4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), but they’ve gone horribly wrong with the Tribe (7.29 ERA, 1.81 WHIP). Over his last six outings he’s allowed fewer than four earned runs just one time. He’s also failed to last more than five innings five times. That’s right, he’s gone more than five innings just once since July 20th. He’s still striking guys out, he has 22 in his last 21 innings, but it’s too little to get excited about at this point.

As much as I want to believe in Ubaldo, to turn to him given his track record and the lack of it with Beachy, there’s simply no objective way that I can say choosing Ubaldo over Brandon right now makes any sense.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

The Closer Conundrum

photo © 1913 The Library of Congress | more info (via: Wylio)
One of the most frustrating situations to deal with in the world of fantasy baseball is to accurately predict which arms will operate in the 9th inning for a club. There are locks with guys like Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon and Brian Wilson, but a good deal of teams either (a) don’t really know who their 9th inning arm will be or (b) don’t really have an arm that is capable of handling the role for the duration of the season. That situation has never been more acute than early in the 2011 season.

The Rays said they would roll with a committee to start the year, but Kyle Farnsworth is getting all the 9th inning work.

The Jays had a bunch of guys get hurt making the situation even more muddled. For now, Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco are likely to get work in the 9th.

The Orioles say Kevin Gregg is their closer, but Koji Uehara is lurking.

The Twins started the year with Joe Nathan in the 9th, but he struggled. Matt Capps is currently their arm of choice at the end of games.

The White Sox opened the year with Matt Thornton. Unfortunately he had the worst 5-game stretch of his career opening up the year. Jesse Crain and Chris Sale have struggled at times, so now it appears Sergio Santos might get a look.

The Rangers have lost Neftali Feliz to the DL leaving things, apparently, in the hands of Darren Oliver. He has four saves in 602 career appearances.

The Mariners seem ready to demote the successful Brandon League with David Aardsma almost ready to return from hip surgery.

The Phillies started with Brad Lidge who was hurt. They then moved on to Jose Contreras who was hurt. Looks like option #3 is Ryan Madson.

The Nationals started the year giving the ball to Sean Burnett, but he really isn’t a closer. Drew Storen, the club’s closer of the future, has looked great and it appears that he is now the man.

The Braves were going to split work between Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters, but it’s been all Kimbrel so far.

The Cardinals watched Ryan Franklin implode, repeatedly, before turning over the ninth to hard throwing, but inexperienced, Mitchell Boggs.

And it goes on and on, and we are talking about three weeks of games folks.

The point should be obvious – drafting relievers because of the roles they hold, and not based on the skills that they posses, is fraught with danger. Think of it. Of the 30 teams in the game a third of them have already switched things around in the ninth inning. And we see this every year. Put yourself back into your time machine and set the dial for March, 2010. Look at the following names who likely weren’t even drafted at all, or if they were selected it was only as a late round, shot in the dark, type of gamble in the last round.

Leo Nunez – 30 saves
John Axford – 24 saves
John Rauch – 20 saves
Alfredo Simon – 17 saves
Juan Gutierrez – 15 saves
Koji Uehara – 13 saves
Hong-Chih Kuo – 10 saves

There are arms every year that come totally out of nowhere – i.e. from the waiver-wire – to produce solid and sometimes difference making saves totals. 2011 will be no different pointing out, yet again, why you don’t always have to jump into the closer run on draft day. Just think if you passed on all the top closers this year and were astute about which middle relievers to roster at the end of the draft. It’s eminently conceivable that you could have ended up with Brian Fuentes (six saves), Jose Contreras (five saves), Brandon League (five saves) and Mitchell Boggs (three saves) on your roster. If you had done that you’d have rostered 19 saves for virtually nothing. What type of odds would you lay right now that 19 saves is similar to the totals you’ll likely get from guys like Andrew Bailey and David Aardsma this season?

In the end I think we need a new system to evaluate relievers. The way the system is currently set up rewards luck. Were you the first to run to the waiver wire to add Contreras when Lidge was hurt? Did you drop a quarter of your FAAB budget on Contreras only to see him come down with an injury? Were you smart enough to also add Ryan Madson? What about a guy like Mike Adams who has out pitched them all (0.82 ERA, 0.18 WHIP, 9.00 K/BB) but one who’s really not posting any fantasy value to speak of in a mixed league cause he has no saves?

My solution? I propose the fantasy game goes with Solds, a topic I discussed a year ago in Around the Horn, April 14, 2010. It’s not a perfect solution, but at least it’s a start.

By Ray Flowers

Where Do Saves Come From?

On draft day every year, people seem to reach on closers. Not just that, they seem to often think that they have to get Mariano Rivera or Brian Wilson because they are on teams that win a lot of games. I mean, logic would seem to point to the fact that in order to roster a reliever with a prodigious save total he would have to pitch for a team that racked up a bushel of victories. However, does history bear this out as an accurate portrayal of what actually happens on the field?

In this study of relievers dating back to 2003, I will attempt to show that it isn’t a lead pipe cinch that you simply must have a closer from a top tier team to accrue strong save numbers. In fact, the data that follows would seem to suggest that you could do very well if you were smart about targeting the right arms, irrespective of the teams those hurlers pitch for.

To read the eight year study all you have to do is to click on the link to Where Do Saves Come From?

By Ray Flowers

What is a HOF Closer?

We’d all like to think we could recognize greatness when we see it. When Albert Pujols unleashes his beautifully timed swing with an exquisite follow-through, you know you are witnessing greatness. When Roy Halladay is baffling hitters with pitches from all angles at all speeds going in all directions, you know you are witnessing greatness. But how do you know you are witnessing greatness when we are talking about relief pitchers who only toss an inning per outing?

This question will continue to be raised in the coming years, especially when it comes to Hall of Fame balloting as the voters try to place closers into historical context given that they have truly been a part of the landscape, at least in their current role, for barely 25 years. Is there a number of saves that guarantees election to the Hall of Fame like 300 wins for a pitcher and 3,000 hits for a batter? To this point in the voting process there is no agreed upon number for greatness. Lee Smith, who is third all-time with 478 saves, received only 45.3 percent of the vote in the latest go round (you need 75 percent to be inducted into the Hall). John Franco, who is 4th on the saves list with 424, was named only 27 ballots this year falling below five percent of the vote at 4.6 percent meaning he will no longer be eligible to be voted on during balloting. Apparently, 400 saves doesn’t guarantee you entry to the Hall.

But what about 500 saves? There are currently only two men in that club and one is Mariano Rivera with 559 saves. Will he make the Hall of Fame? Is that the dumbest question I have ever posed on BaseballGuys.com?

What about the other man with at least 500 saves, who is also the only man in history with 600 – Trevor Hoffman – who just announced his retirement from the game? Of course he will make the Hall of Fame, wont he? I say if he doesn’t get elected on the first ballot then the voters are detached from reality. Whatever you think of the save – and frankly it’s not a very good way to judge a pitchers effectiveness – the fact of the matter is that the game is run in order to get a team’s closer into the game in the 9th inning to seal a victory. Given that every team in the game follows this formula, how could you possibly not reward the men that were the best at what they do?

Hoffman led the league in saves, shockingly, only twice (53 in 1998 and 46 in 2006), in his storied career. Still, he is the all-time leader both in saves and games finished (856). Hoffman was also in the top-7 in saves 15 times in 16 seasons, only missing out in 2003 when injury limited him to nine innings. Moreover, Hoffman also had stretches of eight and six years in a row with 30-saves – the run of eight from 1995-2002 is tied with Rivera (2003-10) for the longest stretch in history. That means Hoffman racked up 14 seasons of 30 saves, the most in the history of the game (Rivera has 13 such seasons).

More than just a saves machine, Hoffman and his change-up posted an ERA of 2.87 for his career, 49.1 percent better than the league average of 4.28. Hoffman also registered a stupendous WHIP of 1.06, a K/9 mark of 9.36, and a K.BB ratio of 3.69. All of those numbers, every single one of them, speaks to Hoffman’s HOF credentials.

Obviously Hoffman did his job, arguably, as well as any man who ever played the game. However, he just doesn’t have the mystic of Mariano Rivera who not only pitches for the Yankees but somehow has gotten batters our for all of these years with just a single pitch. Not only that, Rivera has been the greatest postseason pitcher the game has ever seen; Rivera is 8-1 with 42 saves, a 0.71 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP over 139.2 innings whereas Hoffman made just 12 postseason appearances that included a blown save in his only World Series. Hoffman spent virtually his entire career on the West Coast meaning many people may have actually seen him pitch only a handful of times, and that certainly wont help his candidacy. He also toiled away on a second division club for the majority of his career, and his success was predicated on a devastating change-up that sure didn’t impress many who were watching the game from the grandstand. All Hoffman did, day after day, was get people out.

Will that be good enough for the Hall of Fame even if those who watched him pitch never used the word “greatness” to describe his work? Time will tell, but if I had a ballot I would put a check mark next to Trevor Hoffman’s name without hesitation – he was the best to ever fill the role of closer in the history of the National League.

By Ray Flowers