Player Profile: Scott Diamond

Doesn’t it seem like every pitcher on the Minnesota Twins gets batters out while never walking anyone? Now it also seems like the majority of them rarely strike batters out either, but the club still must be patted on the back for the fact that they just keep rolling arms out there, year after year, that get outs despite less than intimidating stuff. One of those arms belongs to Scott Diamond who, in his first full season in the big leagues, won 12 games over 174 innings for the Twinkies. Let’s profile the lefty from Guelph, Ontario (you might notice a fair amount of similarity in what follows to the recent Player Profile of Ross Detwiler).

Diamond started out rolling like a baller – he was Marlon Brando – with a 2.27 ERA through his first five starts, and he hit the All-Star Break with a 7-3 record, 2.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Unfortunately things started to even out in the second half as his record fell to 5-6 while his ratios jumped (4.31 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) when he turned into Danny DeVito. Overall Diamond went 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his 27 starts as he bettered Max Scherzer in ERA (3.74) and Jeremy Hellickson in WHIP (1.25). Despite those overall solid numbers, I’m not sold that this is someone you should be dreaming about drafting in 2013. If I had concerns about Detwiler, and you can read about those in the link above, I have even graver concerns about Diamond. Point by point.

(1) Diamond has no idea what a strikeout is. Last year he was able to convince 4.68 batters per nine innings to strike out. That’s only three batters below the league average.

(2) He walked a mere 31 batters on the year leading to a 1.61 BB/9 mark. He’s always been able to keep the walks down but he never had a single minor league stop with a number that low, and his career number in 600 minor league innings is 2.84. We therefore have to expect that number to rise in 2013.

(3) His line drive rate of 21 percent was higher than the league average (19 percent).

(4) His HR/F ratio of 11.4 was higher than than league average (9 percent).

(5) His BABIP was .292, right on the league average.

Nothing in any of that says ‘this is a guy I have to have on my fantasy squad.’

So how did he have success? Much like Detwiler, Diamond is able to induce a boatload of grounders. Diamond’s 53.4 percent ground ball rate was the 4th best in the AL, and we know how guys that induce grounders with abandon can have long and successful careers (think Derek Lowe). However, it’s the only trait that he possesses that speaks to him being anything other than a borderline league average hurler. When everything goes right, as it did in 2012, then guys like Diamond can have a lot of success. When it goes wrong though, you end up with a Rick Porcello type effort (4.59 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and just 107 Ks in 176.1 IP). And that’s the obvious rub with Diamond. If he can’t rediscover the two strikeouts per nine innings that he left in the minors when he joined the Twins he’s just not going to be someone who is consistent enough to be a weekly starter in the fantasy game. When ground ballers are on, they can dominate for months at a time. When that balls leaks up over the plate, they get beaten back to the Middle Ages.

Could Diamond repeat his 2012 effort in 2013? Sure he could. Would I bet money that he would? No I would not. Would I draft him in a mixed league? No I would not. Would I target him in an AL-only league? Again, I would not. Diamond is one of those arms that is best left for the real world versus being someone you would be interested in building a staff around in the fantasy game.

NOTE: Former Twins’ right hander Scott Baker is no longer in the fold after signing a 1-year, $5.5 million deal to join the Cubs. Coming back from Tommy John Surgery, the 31 year old isn’t likely to be ready by Opening Day, but he should be healthy enough to take the ball every five days for the Cubs early in the year.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Henderson Alvarez

What do you do when your called out? Do you shrink into a corner? Do you pick up your machete and start slashing? Do you ignore it and pull back on a Pilsner? My weapon of choice is the written word, luckily for Tim Heaney of KFFL.com.

(Tim an I go way back, so take what your about to read in the right vein. I’m just playing things up to make it look like Tim is a jerk-face. In truth, he’s one of the nicer guys around).

So what is this battle about that I speak of? Last week I tweeted that Henderson Alvarez had “no chance” of being a top-75 SP in 2012. Tim caught wind of this tweet, and offered a very reasonable rebuttal at KFFL.com.

“He’s a Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco type – moderate K/9, pristine BB/9 – who’s much cheaper and offers similar upside, if not more for his relative cost.”

I’ll give Tim credit as he threw back in my face two arms that I always talk up each year, an always believe in. If Alvarez really is a pitching on par with those other two then I would be wrong to dismiss Alvarez as a potential top-75 arm. I hate admit when someone might have the drop on me. My only hope is that Alvarez isn’t the type of arm that is on par with those others. Let’s see…

Tim stated that the sample size with Alvarez is small – only 10 starts last year with the Blue Jays. That is always one of the bigger issues for me. In a general sense, I’m a big believer in the ‘I’ve seen him do it before so I feel fairly certain he could do it again.’ The result of that mindset is that I’m often much lower on rookies than many others are. I’m not stupid enough to state that guys like Brett Lawrie and Matt Moore can’t possibly be good because they haven’t played a full big league season, that would be completely foolish. However, I’m of the opinion that it’s tough to pass on a guy like Aramis Ramirez or Matt Garza in favor of youngsters that have yet to cut their teeth at the big league level. If I’m reluctant to go all in on elite talent then it’s not a leap at all to understand why I’d be less than thrilled to push Alvarez above proven big league talent.

Tim also points out another issue that apparently concerns me a bit more than it does him – Alvarez skipped Triple-A. Moreover, dude has all of 88 innings above A-ball. I don’t like that at all. Many pitchers need at least 500 innings of minor league innings to truly get everything under control an Alvarez is well under that at 405 total with less than a fifth of that against guys above A-ball. That makes me pretty nervous. Not like I’m unable to speak to you because you are a beautiful woman, but maybe more like I need a belt of booze in order to gain some courage to chat you up. Speaking of Henderson’s minor league career it’s not like he posted special numbers even at the lower levels. Here are his career totals: 27-24, 4.02 ERA, 1.30 WHIP an a 6.5 K/9 mark. None of that, none of it, says top-75 major league arm.

Despite what the numbers say, Tim does bring up a couple of salient points. First, Alvarez doesn’t walk anyone so even though his strikeout numbers might not impress his K/BB ratio is, in Tim’s words, pristine. Tim is right. The mark was 3.77 during his minor league days and even higher at 5.00 in 63.2 innings in the bigs last year. I gotta be honest though. Do you really think though that Henderson can be expected to walk less than a batter per start moving forward? The second point, and I can’t refute this one in any way, is that Alvarez induces grounders. That always helps a pitcher out and is often the key to mitigating big innings because homers can kill ya. Maybe the addition of another pitch – a slider – will help even further as Tim suggests.

So did I speak too quickly when I said that Alvarez had “no chance” to be a top-75 starter in 2012? Maybe, but I’m not backing down from it. Not only is Alvarez young and unproven at the big league level, he simply doesn’t have much experience against elite competition. He also doesn’t miss enough bats putting him at the mercy of his defense and some random forces. Don’t forget, and this is always big for me, even if a guy like Alvarez has a lot of big league success his value in mixed leagues is  muted if his K/9 rate is a batter an a half below the big league average. Alvarez has a skill set that suggests success is coming, but that’s a far cry from making him a legit top-75 starting pitcher in fantasy leagues in 2012 in my opinion.

For Tim’s rebuttal to my reply see – The Brodown Continues.

What do people think of Alvarez over at Fleaflicker?

By Ray Flowers

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers

Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.

* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

The league average in 2011 was 0.45.

Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.

0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.

0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.

0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.

0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.

0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.

0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.

0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.

0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.

0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.

0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.

0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.

0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.

Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.

1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.

1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.

1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.

1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.

1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.

0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.

0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.

0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.

0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.

0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.

0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.

0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).

0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.

0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.

0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part II

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. For a breakdown of who is in the league and how everything shakes out, not to mention who I drafted in rounds 1-14 see K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I.

In what follows I’ll list my thoughts about my selections from pick 15-28. I’ll then give a quick run down of my squad.

Round 15: Dexter Fowler
He gained some muscle this offseason, and he flat out exploded in the second half of the season: .288 with a .880 OPS, 51 runs, 10 steals in 68 games.

Round 16: Wandy Rodriguez
This is a solid skill set hurler who gets no love because he’s on the Astros. As a 5th starter on my team he’s slotted in the right spot.

Round 17: Kurt Suzuki
I wanted to wait another go round for a backstop, I’d prefer to take a closer here, but I just didn’t have much faith in the remaining backstops.

Round 18: Frank Francisco
Great arm will be given an opportunity to close with Mets. Could have gone OF here, but I really needed to get that second closer arm.

Round 19: Brennan Boesch
It was Boesch, Joyce or Vernon Wells for my 5th outfielder. Couldn’t see any of them being around the next time I made a pick.

Round 20: Vernon Wells
Well color me surprised. Wells was indeed available after I considered taking him in the last round. He makes a solid UT option this late.

Round 21: Ryan Doumit
Of all the remaining backstops Doumit is the one I can see going .275-15-70 if he can stay healthy. Per 450 at-bats in his career: .271-15-61-54-2.

Round 22: Scott Baker
I’ve been staring at Baker for two rounds now. If healthy, there’s little reason to think he won’t be a top-50 hurler at worst, so this is good value this late.

Round 23: Rafael Furcal
I wanted to go with another starting pitcher here, but I looked at the remaining options for my backup at short and Furcal appeared to be well ahead of the remaining options.

Round 24: Ricky Nolasco
Once more into the breach… one of these years it’s going to happen. I’m convinced. I feel like Ahab from Moby Dick chasing my White Whale.

Round 25: Daniel Murphy
To get a guy who could hit .300 while qualifying at first, second and third… sign me up. Big fan of a reserve pick who covers so many positions.

Round 26: Chris Davis
It’s like when you walk into a car dealership intending to buy a sedan and walk out with a sports car. The lure of Davis and his power is too strong for me to break.

Round 27: Sergio Romo
(1) I could use solid ratios with a shot at a few saves. (2) With a short bench of only five guys I felt I needed a hurler over another bat.

Round 28: David Robertson
Went with this great bullpen arm instead of starters Homer Bailey, Aaron Harang, A.J. Burnett and Ryan Vogelsong, Obviously there will be plenty of arms left on the waiver-wire.

My Squad.

C: Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Doumit
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Kevin Youkilis
SS: Derek Jeter
MI: Dustin Ackley
CI: Mark Reynolds
OF: Matt Holliday, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino, Dexter Fowler, Brennan Boesch
UT: Vernon Wells

Pitchers: Felix Hernandez, Ricky Romero, Josh Beckett, Brandon Morrow, Wandy Rodriguez, Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco, Sergio Santos, Frank Francisco

Bench: Rafael Furcal, Daniel Murphy, Chris Davis, Sergio Romo, David Robertson

I’ve got a lot of flexibility with the club as Cabrera, Kendrick, Reynolds, Davis and Murphy are all going to be multi position guys. I could be a bit light on steals, but I should still finish middle of the pack there. I like the late add of Daniel Murphy to help offset a guy like Reynolds in the batting average category. On the hill, I think I again showed that you can wait on hurlers and still assemble a strong staff. My top-5 arms could all give me 175 Ks, and Baker/Nolasco could both be near elite if healthy and lucky (that obviously has not been the case the past few years though). I might be light on saves but with this draft happening so early in the year, before training camp even started, I didn’t feel the need to reach on bullpen arms when so many situations are still unsettled.

I’ll keep you posted throughout the year on how the club is doing.

Finally, here is my roster, along with all the others from the K-BAD Draft.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Hits

Pitching is the variable that we all struggle with from season to season. Predicting any players future performance based on the past is always filled with uncertainty, and only good detective work can get us close to predicting something that we really can’t predict with 100 percent accuracy. That quest for prediction perfection is even more difficult when it comes to pitchers than it is with hitters. That’s just the nature of the beast. Therefore, don’t be too hard on anyone who makes a mistake or two along the way – it’s just not that easy to do.

Back in March I posted my Top-100 Starting Pitchers article. In PART I I’ll discuss some of my “hits” while saving my “misses” for Part II.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

HITS

Clayton Kershaw (#7): The NL’s Triple Crown winner tied Ian Kennedy for the league lead with 21 victories, posted a major league best 2.28 ERA, and whiffed 248 batters, just two behind Justin Verlander for the major league lead. He was everything we all knew he could be, an at just 23 years old, it’s scary to think that Kershaw could repeat this effort for years to come.

James Shields (#24): I took a lot of heat for putting Shields in my top-25 after he went 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA for the Rays in 2010. Consider me vindicated. Shields pitched more innings (249.1) at greater effect than he had at any point in his career. Shields led baseball with 11 complete games (only Roy Halladay had more than six, he finished with eight), and his four shutouts tied Derek Holland for the AL lead. Shields also finished third in the AL in ERA (2.82) and strikeouts (225) and was fifth in WHIP (1.04). Spectacular.

Josh Beckett (#26): I wrote all about why Beckett would rebound in Is Josh Beckett Finished? Did you read the article and buy into what I was selling?

Clay Buchholz (#52): I warned everyone to be careful with Clay who was being over drafted because he was a Red Sox and because he posted a sterling 2.33 ERA in 2010. His ERA was still solid at 3.48 and his WHIP of 1.29 wasn’t bad at all, it just wasn’t good enough considering where he was drafted by some (not to mention that injuries limited him to just 82.2 innings).

Scott Baker (#53): He was everything I said he would be this year for the Twins. Baker had a career best 8.22 K/9 mark which led to a career best tying 3.88 K/BB ratio, and some sterling ratios (3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP). Unfortunately the injury bug struck once again as he was limited to just 23 appearances, 21 starts, leading to only 134.2 innings.

Jordan Zimmerman (#54): The skills were on full display this year with only the Nationals innings pitched limit, he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, to slow him down. Jordan had a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and superb 4.00 K/BB ratio because he simply refused to issue a free pass. He’s good enough to have a whole bunch of efforts like this one.

Bud Norris (#72): He made 30 starts for the first time in his career (31 actually), and posted 176 Ks in the process. His WHIP also came down to 1.33 as he cut a full batter off his walk rate getting it down to nearly the league average at 3.39. I’m considering him a “hit” even though he won just six games because his ERA went down a run, his BB/9 down 1.12, his WHIP was down 0.15 and his innings went up 33.2 from 2010.

Justin Masterson (#76): This guy owns a nice combo of strikeout/ground ball stuff, the ideal makeup for a starting pitcher. He threw a career best 216 innings leading to a career-high 12 victories, and even though his K/9 fell to a career worst 6.58 causing some trepidation, he cut nearly a batter off his walk rate leading to his first K/BB ratio better than two at 2.43. He also keep the grounders coming, 55.1 percent of batted balls, and should be in line for a long and successful career.

Tim Stauffer (#78), Aaron Harang (#82): You can find my season ending review of both of these guys in Pitcher Profiles: 2011 Review.

By Ray Flowers

Is Anyone Listening?

photo © 2005 Dave Herholz | more info (via: Wylio)

Albert Pujols is down with an injury and likely to miss 4-6 weeks IF he heals on schedule and IF the Cardinals are being honest about his injury (they’ve grown increasingly less trustworthy in their reporting of injuries). The Cardinals are hosed, Pujols could have cost himself money on the market (I doubt that), and his fantasy owners are totally jammed up. Sad situation all around. Glad I didn’t just swing a huge deal to add Pujols in the Sirius/XM Experts League two weeks ago. Whoops, I did.

Did you give up on Mark Reynolds despite my telling you not to? Reynolds has been hot in June hitting .300 with six homers and 12 RBIs while he’s racked up an ultra impressive 1.155 OPS. Yes he’s still hitting just .217, but his recent run of offensive production has pushed his pace up to 30 homers, 85 RBI and 83 runs scored. Care to guess what his average numbers where the last three years? How about 35 homers, 95 RBI and 88 runs. Pretty darn close wouldn’t you say?

Did you give up on Brandon League during what could have been the worst run of pitching by any reliever in baseball history (from May 8th to May 13th he appeared in four games picking up four loses and three blown saves while allowing 10 earned runs in 2.2 innings)? League hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 13th to drop his ERA back down to 3.90. His WHIP currently sits at 1.07, and if you remove that one week of pitching he would be 20-for-20 in save conversions and his ERA would be 0.99.

The date was October 28th, 2010. That day I penned an article titled Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought. In that piece I suggested four names who could return a significant profit in 2011 because their apparently poor work in 2010 would lead to them being undervalued on draft day. Here are the four names that I discussed with a little diddy on how each is currently performing.

Scott Baker (5-4, 3.24 ERA, 88 Ks, 1.17 WHIP in 91.2 IP)
He’s allowed one run over his last two starts, has won each of his last three outings to improve to 5-4, and his ratios this season are outstanding. Baker also has a career best 8.64 K/9 mark and has been everything I hoped he would bee when I commented on how valuable he could be eight months ago. Did you listen? Judging by how many queries I received about Baker the past two weeks I’m gonna have to say very few did.

James Shields (7-4, 2.40 ERA, 108 Ks, 1.00 HWIP in 112.2 IP)
Shields is third in the AL in ERA and 6th in WHIP, and he’s also fourth in the league in innings pitched while his five complete games and three shutouts are the most in baseball. You remember back in March when he was listed 24th amongst starting pitchers in my Top-100 Starting Pitchers? Do you remember how you sent me emails and tweets about how stupid I was?

Chris Narveson (4-4, 4.48 ERA, 70 Ks, 1.39 WHIP over 78.1 IP)
I’m not going to admit total failure here, but he’s not been as good as I hoped. Still, he does have his use as his K/9 rate of 8.04 is solid while his 1.48 GB/FB ratio is encouraging. Hell, what are you complaining about since you drafted Narveson in the 27th round in your mixed league.

A.J. Burnett (7-5, 4.05 ERA, 76 Ks, 1.22 WHIP in 93.1 IP)
Direct hit yet again. Burnett is on pace to better his numbers from last season, some substantially. After all he was 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 2010. Did you take a chance on him late in drafts cause of my recommendation or simply because he pitches for the Yankees? It’s a concern that his K/9 rate is just 7.33, that’s nearly a full batter below his career rate, but at least it’s better than the 6.99 mark he posted last season.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June 14, 2011

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to some questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

I’m solid in the power categories but need steals and runs. Should I trade Ryan Howard for Jacoby Ellsbury?
– @mushinske

Clearly you’ve got a deal here that would meet your needs.

Ellsbury has been his old dynamic force this season as his body is finally healthy. Jacoby has easily been a top-10 overall performer given his 5×5 line (.318-7-33-49-24), pretty much the same situation that existed in his last two healthy seasons of 2008 and 2009 (his 2011 totals are projections).

2008: .280-9-47-98-50
2009: .301-8-60-94-70
2011: .318-17-83-124-60

He won’t hit 17 homers this season, it’s not likely at least given that his current HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent (the mark was 7.0 and 4.6 percent in 2008-09). He’s also striking out more than ever before with a 17.0 percent whiff rate (career 13.6 percent) and it’s hard to fathom that he will be able to keep up his current LD-rate (25.5 percent) and BABIP (.362). Still, as long as he stays healthy it’s not difficult at all to envision him matching his level of performance from 2008-09.

Howard is well on his way to another 30 homer, 100 RBI season with 13 bombs and 53 RBI in 65 games. Howard has gone 30-100 each of this five full seasons in the big leagues, so it doesn’t take much analysis to suggest another such season appears to be in the cards. On the negative tip though, Howard has 11 steals in his career and hasn’t hit .280 since 2006. In the land of titans, that being the first base position, Howard is always a fine option, but his production doesn’t stand out if he is hitting 35 homers with 120 RBI versus the level of production he offered from from 2006-09 (4-straight years of 45-136).

Given your needs I give you my blessing to consummate this deal, though I wont be giving you a 20.5 carat ring like Kris Humphries did when he popped the question to Kim Kardashian.

Is there any way I should drop Yunel Escobar for J.J. Hardy who’s been heating up lately?
– @mattromeo

Escobar has battled the injury monster a couple of times this year, but he’s appeared in 61 of 66 games for the Blue Jays as he has re-established himself as a bona fide big league hitter after last years el floppo (.256-4-35). He’s already hit more homers this season than last, he has seven, and his total of 24 RBI is just 11 behind his putrid total from last season. Escobar was hitting .300 a few weeks back but he’s slumped to .129 in 31 June at-bats. Still, he’s third at the position with a .360 OBP and his 38 runs place him sixth, and he’s on pace (I know how everyone loves “pace” talk) to end the year with a line that looks pretty similar to what he has done in the past.

2008: .288-10-60-71-2
2009: .299-14-76-89-5
2011: .277-17-58-93-5

Escobar’s currently drawing more walks than ever before (11.4 BB-rate vs. career 9.6 percent), and his line drive rate is a mere 12.8 percent (career 18.1), so it would seem very reasonable for you to expect Escobar to continue along at his current rate of production, especially when he starts lashing a few more line drives.

Hardy hit 50 homers and posted 154 RBI in 2007-08 as one of the most powerful shortstops in the game (he was second at the position in homers and third in RBI). However, a variety of injures hit him the past two seasons as he averaged just 108 games player per year. Over those 216 games he hit just 17 homers while knocking in 85 runs as his production fell off the proverbial map. Injuries have once again limited him this season, he’s appeared in just 36 games, but the old power stroke is back as he has six homers and 19 RBI.

I don’t question the skills with Hardy. His BB/K rate, line drive rate, HR/F, BABIP — all of that is pretty standard fair for him when you compare his current numbers to his career rates. He is hitting a few more fly balls and a few less grounders which has helped aid the power output, but the concern over his health is what eats at me.

I’d keep Escobar. I have more faith in his ability to stay on the field than the oft-injured Hardy.

Scott Baker or Jordan Zimmerman going forward?
– @cstarlodi

It’s like everyone is all of a sudden coming to the conclusion that these two guys are both pretty good hurlers. In March when I released my Top-100 Starting Pitchers I had Baker at 53 and Zimmerman at 54. It may not seem like much now, but back then I got a lot of push back on those rankings. Obviously I’m not surprised that they have had success this season.

I get daily question about Baker, a fact I mentioned this in a piece yesterday titled Pointing Out the Obvious, and I’m not sure why that is. Baker is currently sporting a solid 3.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, solid numbers but still not career bests (he had a 3.45 ERA in 2008 and in 2008-09 his WHIP was 1.18 and 1.19). He is sporting a career best 8.39 K/9 mark, a batter plus over his career rate (7.19), and though he’s never posted a mark over eight before, he does have the skill to sustain this level. He is walking more batters than ever before  (2.47 per nine), but his K/BB ratio is 3.39, just off his 3.37 career rate, because of the strikeout boost. The rest of his pitching line is pretty standard stuff for him which means solid production all-around.

Zimmerman started a bit slowly, especially in the strikeout column, but he has really turned things on his last eight outings during which time he has 47 Ks in 51.2 innings. With only 11 walks in that time his K/BB ratio since the start of May is an excellent 4.27, and check out his ratios – 2.26 ERA an a 0.99 WHIP. That’s dealing folks. His fly ball rate is a bit elevated this season though he’s been able to offset that fact with his HR/FB rate of 2.9 percent. He’s not likely to keep that up given that his career mark is right on the big league average at 9.5 percent, so that ERA could climb a bit, but this is a stable/strong skill set.

So who would I prefer to have on my roster? I’m going to suggest going with the veteran in Baker. Not only do we have a bit more of a track record with him, we also don’t have to worry about his innings pitched total being capped later in the year, a fact that any Zimmerman owner will have to deal with as the Nationals try to limit the workload on their young start who is returning from Tommy John surgery.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

By Ray Flowers

Pointing Out the Obvious

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m headed to the FSTA Conference today in San Francisco to do the first experts football draft of the year. But you know me, I can’t let a day go without talking about baseball.

How in the world am I still getting questions from people about should they add Scott Baker to their staff? Have you people been listening to me at all? I’ve been saying go all in with Baker since January. Over, an over, an over again I keep saying it. Why is no one listening? So let me say it for the last time. YES, ADD BAKER. He has a 8.39 K/9 mark, 3.39 K/BB, 3.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. If you’re in a league where that doesn’t help you it must be an eight team mixed league.

Neftali Feliz has converted 3-straight save chances, and his ERA is 1.21 on the year. So everything is fine, right? Not so fast. I know everyone panicked and ran away from Joakim Soria when he lost his closing job a few weeks back (Hopefully you didn’t do that and listened to me when I said to hold on to the struggling arm who would like be re-inserted into the closers role quickly if he showed a turnaround. That’s exactly what happened after a trio of solid outings as a setup man). Why did I switch from talking about Feliz to Soria? Do me a favor and look at their numbers this season next to one another. I’ll bet dollar to doughnuts that you’ll be surprised that Soria has easily outpitched Feliz.

Feliz: 5.50 xFIP, 4.84 K/9, 5.64 BB/9, 0.62 GB/FB, 95.4 LOB%
Soria: 3.87 xFIP, 7.14 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 1.19 GB/FB, 67.8 LOB%

The only reason that anyone thinks that Feliz is pitching better than Soria is because of an immense amount of luck for the Rangers’ closer. He’s pitched worse than Soria by nearly any measure, and has only been successful because of his insanely high left on base percentage amongst other things.

What’s wrong with Tim Lincecum? That’s a question I’ve gotten a couple of times the past few days. Over his last three outings Lincecum has looked awful, he’s allowed 22 hits and 16 runs over 15.1 innings, so I understand the concern from people. At the same time, his current WHIP is 1.19. His career mark is 1.18. His current batting average against is .233. His career mark is .225. His current walk rate is 3.02 per nine. His career mark is 3.23. His current BABIP is .294. His career mark is .296. His current xFIP is 3.03. His career mark is 3.15 and his mark last season was 3.09. Yes his K’s are down about three quarters of a batter per nine, but his 9.16 mark is still stellar. So what’s wrong with Lincecum? Nothing. His performance for the year is exactly where we should expect it to be it’s just been a roller coaster ride.

Hunter Pence is dealing with a minor back issue that has dogged him for a few days, but he should return to action on Monday. Pence has one of the quietest 22 game hitting streaks in recent memory to boost his average up to .318 on the year. His performance to date, if extended out over the season, would result in a 5×5 effort of .318-19-112-80-7, a pretty darn solid line and one that would place him amongst the top-15 outfielders in the fantasy game if he were to keep it up.

And finally, a Jose Bautista update. Over his last 11 games Bautista has hit .222 to drop his season long average from .360 to .338. He’s also homered in just one of his last 14 games. He’s still second in the AL in batting average and leads major league baseball in homers with one more than Curtis Granderson and Matt Kemp, but I just thought I would point it out to those of you who think Jose is a lock to be the AL MVP this year.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 26, 2011

photo © 2010 Phil Roeder | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Hanley Ramirez got traded straight up for Starlin Castro. This is vetoable correct?
– @Dorman06

I hate vetoing deals. The reason is that sometimes a team would benefit from picking up a “lesser” player in a deal. If you need steals maybe it makes sense to trade Justin Upton for Michael Bourn, even if straight up the players aren’t equal. However, deals are never done in a vacuum, so unless the deal is horrifically one-sided the best course of action is usually to just let people stupidly make bad decisions and live with them. Actually, the best course of action to avoid this issue is simply to not allow trades. That way there is no funny business going on, but most people find such leagues to be boring.

In terms of this deal, I’m going to completely reverse course. This is one of those deals that simply must be vetoed. Wind back the clock four weeks. Hanley Ramirez didn’t fall out of the top-5 in any draft, no matter what the format and Castro was lucky if he was being taken in the top-100. In each of the last four seasons Hanley has been one of the top-10 fantasy performers in the game who has averaged a 5×5 line of .319-27-83-111-36. Those numbers are Hanley’s “average” effort the past four years. Even if Castro were to maintain his current pace (.357-1-11-16-3) over 150 games this season he would end up with a 5×5 line of .357-7-75-109-20. Castro will never hit .357, but even if he does he isn’t even on pace to match a “normal” effort from Ramirez.

In this case the deal should clearly be vetoed even if Hanley is currently batting .194 with no homers.

Closers. Pick two to keep and one to shop around – Brian Wilson, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Cordero. Thoughts?
– @alistairjhogg

The problem with questions like this is the following – almost always the player or players you should keep are the ones that will bring the most value in a deal. Therefore, do you trade the “best” guy because he will bring the most in return or do you trade the inferior guys and get lesser players in return?

Wilson is the arm you have to keep. His 9.82 ERA is a total fluke as he’s had three poor outings. Wilson still has five saves in six chances and a strikeout per inning on the young season. He’s still working his way back to full health after being slowed by a side issue in spring, but you don’t trade the majors saves leader from the past three years (127, five more than K-Rod), unless you get a huge return.

Cordero gets saves, he’s had at least 34 in each of the past four years, but his K-rate continues to plummet. After posting a 12.22 mark in 2007 we’ve seen it dip to 9.98, 7.83, 7.31 and 7.00 this season. Given that he’s walking 4.00 batters per nine this year which would be a 4th straight year of least four, you need to realize that the end is coming. Sooner or later a pitching line like that will catch up to you.

Broxton has struggled. His fastball is three mph down from where it was in 2009 (97.8), and that is a big concern. Even more concerning is his current 6.97 K/9 mark. I have to think that is a sample size thing though – he’s never been below 10.54 per nine in his career. Even more disconcerting is his 6.10 BB/9 mark. Unless you’re Carlos Marmol you cannot have success issuing that many free passes. At the same time Broxton is still generating a solid 1.56 GB/FB mark, and there is no way in the world that batters will continue to square him up this well all year (he’s allowing a 34.3 percent line drive).

Keep Wilson and Broxton. If you tried to trade the Dodger right now you likely wouldn’t get much for him anyway as people would be fixated on his ERA (4.35) and WHIP (1.84).

Should I drop Ervin Santana for Scott Baker?
– @zaktraut

It’s so funny. It’s like people have all of a sudden discovered Baker as I’m literally getting 20 questions a day about him on Twitter. Just to prove that I’m not Johnny Come Lately with Baker, I’d point you to a piece I wrote last year in October titled Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought in which I suggested that everyone keep an eye on Baker in 2011. Baker has always had the skills to be an elite level performer, but he has never been able to put it all together. Will he be able to this year? That remains to be seen, but it cannot be argued that he is off to a fantastic start (3.24 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 3.00 K/BB ).

Santana has been one of those odd every year performer (look at his win totals the last five years – 16, 7, 16, 8, 17). However, he posted a four year low in his K/9 rate (6.83) last year, continued to give up his fair share of long balls (1.09 per nine) and was hit pretty hard with a 22.1 percent line drive rate. This year he’s upped the K-rate to 7.71 while dropping his walk rate way down to 2.20 per nine, but the outward results are poor (he’s 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA). Clearly he has pitched better than the results this season. Let’s compare the two righties by looking at their career numbers.

S. Baker: 4.29 ERA,, 1.27 WHIP, 7.12 K/9, 3.36 K/BB, 0.76 GB/FB, 1.19 HR/9
Santana: 4.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.22 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.86 GB/FB, 1.15 HR/9

I want Baker even with the career numbers showing the matchup to be a toss up. I’ve said it before. One of these years it’s all going to come together for Baker and when it does, watch out.

Would you drop Matt Thornton or Sean Burnett for Ryan Franklin?
– @JSam85

I’ve written and talked about this many times, and I always say the same thing – give me skills over role and eventually I’ll come out ahead. With the massive changes we’ve already witnessed in the 9th inning this year, I wrote about this situation in The Closer Conundrum, it’s never been more obvious to me that my position is the right one. It may not always result in saves or me winning a league, but in the long run I’ll come out ahead more times than not, especially since we have no idea what managers will do in the 9th inning.

ROLE: Right now the pitcher to own would appear to be Burnett. Drew Storen is coming hard and appears to have pretty much locked down the 9th inning job with the Nationals, but Burnett figures to at least get some work in the 9th. Thornton was so bad early on that he’s likely nowhere near the 9th for the Sox, and with Mitchell Boggs looking strong, I wouldn’t expect to see Franklin closing games any time soon.

SKILLS: You may not want to hear it given his horrible start, but the best pitcher of this group in terms of skills is Thornton, and it’s not even up for an argument. Let’s look at each hurlers numbers since the start of the 2009 season.

Burnett: 7.68 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, 6.78 H/9, 10.38 BR/9
Franklin: 5.98 K/9, 2.41 K/BB, 7.86 H/9, 10.75 BR/9
Thornton: 11.28 K/9, 3.98 K/BB, 7.15 H/9, 10.18 BR/9

Are you going to let 6.2 innings of poor work from Thornton wipe out three fantastic seasons (from 2007-10, amongst hurlers who tossed 200-innings Thornton was 2nd in base runners per nine innings, fourth in K/9, sixth in ERA and ninth in K/BB)? I’m not. I have no idea who will be the most valuable fantasy performer, the answer to that depends totally on whether or not each hurler’s manager allows them to pitch the 9th inning, so give me the pitcher with the best skill set – Thornton, and leave Ryan Franklin alone.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.