Draft Day Challenge, May 14

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann
2. Joe Mauer

McCann has hit the ground a running with a .333 average, three homers and 10 RBIs in his first 21 at-bats. He’s 0-for-2 against the hot Patrick Corbin, but McCann is going so well, including 7-for-17 of late (.412), that you should be starting him regardless.

You could obviously list Mauer’s name in every one of these writeups and be fine, but he’s scalding right now. Mauer has hit .447 the past two weeks with 13 runs scored. That’s enough to overlook his “mere” .316 mark against Mr. Peavy over 29 at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. Edwin Encarnacion
2. Billy Butler

EE faces Barry Zito, in Toronto. That alone should make you interested. When you hear what he has done in nine plate appearances, your interest better be piqued: 4-for-7, two homers, eight RBIs. He also has two homers and six RBIs the past week.

Coming off a huge game (five hits, five RBIs), there is no reason to expect Butler to slow down against Jason Vargas considering he has six hits and three walks in 16 PAs against him. The end result is a .462 average, .563 OBP, two homers and five RBIs.

SECOND BASE
1. Robinson Cano
2. Neil Walker

Cano faces the all mighty King Felix Tuesday, but he’s had a ton of success in the matchup. Besides only striking out six times in 41 at-bats he’s also hit .366 with two homers and five RBIs.

Walker is back from the DL, and though he went 0-for-4 in his first game, perhaps facing Kyle Lohse will help. Walker has eight hits, to go along with five RBIs, in 20 at-bats (.400 average).

THIRD BASE
1. Ryan Zimmerman
2. Adrian Beltre

It’s borderline stupid to suggest playing anyone against Mr. Kershaw, but here goes. Zimmerman has four hits in nine at-bats against the lefty with nary a strikeout. He’s also starting to warm at the dish with a .318 mark and five RBIs the past week.

Going with two vets at the hot corner today. Beltre has hit .316 with five homers and 14 RBIs against Bartolo Colon over 57 at-bats. He owns him, or something like that. Beltre has also hist .346 with two homers and seven RBIs the past week.

SHORTSTOP
1. Ben Zobrist
2. Jayson Nix

Oh that John Lackey. Seems like many batters enjoys seeing him on the bump anymore. Zobrist is 8-for-20, a cool .400 average, with five walks against Lackey leading to a .538 OBP.

Jeter and Nunez are down and out, so Nix is the starter at short for the Yankees. He’s produced five hits in 10 at-bats against King Felix and he’s also rapped out eight hits, and six runs, over the past week of games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jose Tabata
2. Andre Ethier

Add Tabata to the list of guys that crush Mr. Lohse. Well crush might be too strong a term, but he does have 10 hits in 21 at-bats (.476), and that’s impressive. Tabata also has seven hits in his last 14 at-bats this season.

Ethier is hitting only .254 on the year, but things are looking up. He’s hit .318 the past week, and now he gets to face Dan Haren who he has only hit .426 against in 47 at-bats (two homer,s seven RBIs as well).

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Chris Tillman
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Julio Teheran
4. Scott Kazmir

Tillman is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his last four starts and he takes on the Padres Tuesday. That’s usually a good thing, facing the Padres, right?

The last three weeks Guthrie is 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He faces an Angels team that has scored just 156 runs this season, the same total as the Astros.

The Braves haven’t lost a single one of Teheran’s starts this season, even if he is only 2-0 on the season. In his last three starts he has allowed a total of six runs which is impressive even if he has only 11 Ks and has allowed 25 hits (19.1 innings). He faces the D’backs.

Kazmir is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, not to mention 21 Ks, over his last 17 innings. I picked him up this week in two leagues. Must mean he’s bound to fall on his face. He faces a Phillies team that has a .619 OPS over their last eight games.

By Ray Flowers

Mound Mayhem

Fantasy baseball revolves around two key things – hitting and pitching (a genius statement I know). Today I’ll break down some of the arms on the hill. Which underperformering arms should you be looking at? What will the Cubs and D’backs do in the 9th inning? I know, riveting ain’t it?

Yovani Gallardo is always up and down. It’s been more down than up though this season, and that is causing concern. He does have a win in three of four outings, and he’s walked two or fewer batters in six of seven outings. The K’s haven’t been there, just 26 in 42 innings, and his velocity is down 1.5 mph from his career mark, but I’d bet on the K’s increasing as the innings pile up. He, Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander are the only three hurlers with 200 Ks each of the past four years.

To see how others are evaluating Gallardo, don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Dale Sveum, the manager of the Cubs, said that Kevin Gregg will remain the Cubs’ closer even when Kuji Fujikawa returns from injury. That is a horrible decision. Gregg went for at least 22 saves from 2007-11, but he was never good. I mean they ‘he’s done it before’ argument is just a horrible one to hang your hat on Mr. Sveum. Oh, and the ‘he’s been great this year” argument is horrible as well. You can’t say that 7.1 scoreless innings matters much in the grand scheme. Here are the facts. (1) Gregg has an ERA under 4.37 in one of the past four years. (2) The last time he had a WHIP under 1.30 was 2008. (3) The last three years his K/BB ratio has been under 2.00. (4) His 0.97 career GB/FB ratio is poor. It might look good now, but the Cubs will eventually rue this decision – or maybe their bullpen is just that bad.

Just cause. The lovely Kate Beckinsale.

Ubaldo Jimenez has a 6.37 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He’s struck out 27 batters in 29.2 innings, and batters are hitting .219 against him. He’s also allowed two runs over his last two outings, both victories. It’s also nice to see his GB/FB ratio back in the 1.40 range after dipping all the way down to 1.00 last year. He’s still getting pounded deep, his 1.52 HR/9 mark is literally double his 0.74 career mark, but that should come back to earth, at least a little bit. He’ll never be the arm he once was but maybe he’ll end up being a solid AL-only arm before it’s all said and done (how scary is it to read his velocity number the last four years – 96.1, 93.5, 92.5 and 91.6 mph?).

Scott Kazmir has made three starts with a 6.28 ERA and 1.67 WHIP for the Indians. Consider me shocked (not really). He has struck out more than a batter per inning for those looking for a positive and his fastball has been sitting at 91 mph, not bad for a guy who couldn’t crack 88 mph in 2011. Still, please tell me you aren’t holding out hope of a return to prominence.

J.J. Putz has a forearm issue, and it sounds like there is a chance he could end up on the DL. Who takes over if that happens? It seems like the only question I get on a daily basis – who is working the 9th inning? OK, it’s not the only question, but it is literally something like a third of the questions I receive – the bullpen one. Anyway, here are the three options for the Diamondbacks if Putz is down and out.

Heath Bell saved at least 40 games from 2009-11. He sucked eggs last year (5.09 ERA, 1.55 WHIP). He’s been better this year but that’s not saying much (4.73 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Bell has punched out 19 batters while walking only three over 13.1 innings, so he’s actually pitched decently despite the ratios.

David Hernandez has struck out 16 batters in 15.2 innings. However, he’s also seen a big increase in his walk rate, up from 2.90 per nine last year to 4.60 per nine this year. He should see that number come down a bit. Also, like so many others who are struggling, he’s been the victim of the long ball. In 2011 Hernandez allowed four homers in 69.1 innings. Last year he allowed four homers in 68.1 innings. This season he’s allowed four homers in 15.2 innings. I’ll leave it to you to delineate the outlier.

Matt Reynolds has made 17 appearances this season without allowing a run. That’s pretty good. He’s also walked only one batter while striking out 14 in 16.1 innings. He’s rocking and rolling. He’s also left-handed and has only two saves in 182 career outings.

Hernandez is the guy I would roll the dice on, though late word is that it is Bell who will be installed as the closer if Putz hits the DL as expected.

It’s Ryan Vogelsong week if judged by my email box. Everyone is wondering what is wrong with the Giants’ righty with the 7.20 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. My thoughts. (1) His 7.71 K/9 mark would be a career best. (2) His 2.50 K/BB ratio is better than his 2.28 mark of two years ago and just under his 2.55 mark from last year. (3) His BABIP is .352. That mark has been in the .280′s the past two years. (4) His 1.14 GB/FB ratio is an exact match for last year. (5) His 4.27 xFIP is barely off last years 4.15 mark. (6) His HR/9 mark is 2.06. If you add his mark the past two years you get – 1.56. That’s right, he’s currently allowing homers at double his career rate. That has to normalize at some point.
By Ray Flowers

One Of Those Days

You ever have one of those days? You know the type. You wake up with a little bit of an extra pep in your step. The morning sun hits your face as you sip on your hot coco. You’re looking forward to a good day of work which will then be capped off by an evening with someone you care about. What could be better than those simple pleasures, right?

And then the real world smacks you in the face.

That happened to me today. Oh there’s still plenty of time to turn things around, it’s still well before 11 AM as I write this, but darned if life doesn’t just try and beat you down whenever it can. Why is that (in case you are wondering, nothing “really” bad happened to me, it was actually more about typical annoyances)?

In the vein of “bad days,” here are some guys that have had life beat them down of late. Hopefully they’ve got some Bailey’s Irish Cream to throw in that hot coco.

Alejandro De Aza – A solid option really late in drafts for the speed upside, that outlook was crushed when the White Sox decided to add Kosuke Fukudome to the outfield mix. So much for that 26th round pick of De Aza offering much of anything. He’s now merely an AL-only option.

Josh Hamilton – No need to pile on here. Let’s just hope that he gets his life back on track. A positive note came out Thursday. Hamilton will not face any discipline from the Rangers or Major League Baseball for his recent off the field transgressions with the bottle.

Scott Kazmir – He was supposed to throw for interested parties on Wednesday, but for some unknown reason the session was pushed back until Friday (he claims it has nothing to do with any physical sort of limitations and the most likely explanation is that some team that had an interest likely wasn’t going to be able to present at his throwing session on Wednesday). What the hell happened to Kazmir by the way? Just 28 years old, it’s amazingly easy to forget that it was a mere couple of years back that he was locked at as one of the up an coming lefties in the game. He wasn’t just coming on to fill a 4th or 5th rotation spot either. Kazmir was going to be an elite hurler. In 2005 he posted a 8.42 K/9 mark in 186 innings. In 2006 he upped that number to 10.14 over 144.2 innings. In 2007, his best campaign, he won 13 games, posted a 3.48 ERA and struck out a significant total of 239 batters in 206.2 innings. Those K’s led to a 10.41 K/9 mark which just so happens to be the 8th best mark that any left-handed pitcher, who threw at least 162 innings, has been able to post in the 21st century (if we remove Randy Johnson’s efforts that would put Kazmir’s mark in the 4th spot). Alas problems with his conditioning and dedication came up, and his arm ran out of juice (his average fastball was 93.7 mph as a rookie, 92.6 mph in his second season, and it dipped all the way to 86.5 mph in his 1.2 inning outing last year for the Angels). He’s still young enough to carve out a role but he will never reach the heights that were predicted.

Derrek Lee – I know he’s older at 36 years of age, and that he struggled for much of the season last year, but Lee still hit .267 with 19 homers in just 435 at-bats. So why is he still without a team? Certainly there are offers on the table for Lee, likely as a part-time option, so I’m going to assume that Lee is holding out for a starting gig somewhere. I find it hard to believe that there are 30 better first basemen out there right now but he’s still sitting at home.

Johan Santana – Coming back from shoulder surgery, all eyes are on the one time superstar of the Mets, but come on now. Did you see the report that the Mets’ pitching coach – Dan Warthen – was impressed by a video of Santana throwing. Really? I’ve got better things for you to watch on your laptop than Santana chucking the ball around – maybe an episode of Grimm? Did you also see the report that he was throwing from 175 feet? Whoopie freaking do. I haven’t regularly thrown the ball in about 10 years and I could go our and play catch from 175 feet. That means nothing. Johan plans on throwing at the Mets’ camp today so I guess the eyes of the baseball nation will be upon him. Newsflash everyone. Santana will never again be the pitcher he once was. As if age, workload and shoulder surgery weren’t enough to worry about, have you bothered to look at his numbers the last few years? I can list one series of numbers for you that should make you exceedingly nervous, even if he is healthy once more in 2012. Here are his K/BB ratios the past six seasons (remember, he didn’t throw a big league pitch in 2011): 5.29, 5.21, 4.52, 3.27, 3.17 and 2.62. Uh, that’s not a good trend even if the 2.62 K/BB ratio he posted in 2010 is still well above average.

By Ray Flowers

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Better Than You Thought

photo © 2009 Ron Reiring | more info (via: Wylio)

It’s sunny outside, congressman Anthony Wiener is finally resigning over “Weiner-gate”, and the San Francisco Giants are in first place. All is right in the world. Well not quite, but I’m gonna try to stay positive today in the face of the horrendous actions of those people in Vancouver who decided to act like Neanderthals last night after the Canucks fell to the Bruins in the Stanley Cup finals.

Chad Billingsley hit a new low last night allowing seven runs while making it through only four innings. That pathetic effort came on the heels of a 4.2 innings, six run outing on June 10th. Moreover, Chad has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts to drive his ERA up to 4.65 and his WHIP to 1.52. If he didn’t have his name, he’d likely be on a whole lot of waiver-wire’s this morning. That’s being positive? Wait, it gets better, I promise.

Should you dump him Billingsley because of his recent stretch of failure? I say no. The easiest way to understand why I say that is to look at Billingsley’s xFIP (figured the same way as ERA, it takes into account those factors that are directly in the pitcher’s control while normalizing for a league average home run rate).

2008: 3.58
2009: 3.99
2010: 3.67
2011: 3.65

Billingsley is pitching the same as he always does, it’s just not showing up in the results. If you don’t believe xFIP, look at these numbers.

2011: 2.11 K/BB, 1.44 GB/FB, 0.61 HR/9
Career: 2.10 K/BB, 1.37 GB/FB, 0.66 HR/9

I’m not saying if you own him you should continue to run him out there right now as he is getting pounded, but hold fast if you can. This obviously means Chad is a wonderful hurler to try and buy low on if you’re looking to bolster your pitching staff.

How the mighty have fallen. Did you see that the Angels released Scott Kazmir yesterday? At one time one of the brightest left-handed starters in baseball Kazmir, who won 13 games with a 3.48 ERA and 239 strikeouts in 2007, allowed 30 runs in 15.1 innings in the minors this season leading to the easy decision made by the Angels. It appears that his devastating slider simply ruined his arm. As a rookie his average fastball was 93.7 mph and last year it registered a mere 90.5 mph. His big league career could be over at age 27. So much for staying positive today like I said I would at the top of the piece.

Joe Mauer should be back in action on Friday for the struggling Twins. If you own him get him immediately back into your lineup. At the same time, you’d best hold on to whichever catcher you’ve been riding in his absence since I’m far from convinced that he’ll be able to play nearly every day.

Jorge Posada has been tearing it up the last two weeks hitting .444 over 36 at-bats. However, he didn’t hit a homer in that stretch and he’s still hitting only .227 on the season.

Welcome to the party Jimmy Rollins. The Phillies’ shortstop has two bombs, six RBI and four runs scored in his last three outings. There’s no way around the position that he has been a disappointment at time this year, but even so he’s still on pace to steal more than 30 bases, to score more than 90 times and to hit 14 homers with 64 RBI. Those are still pretty darn solid numbers for a shortstop aren’t they?

Speaking of disappointing shortstops, Troy Tulowitzki is probably second on the list behind Hanley Ramirez when you consider what preseason expectations were. Bit should he be? Tulo is on pace for 31 homers, 110 RBI and 14 steals, so don’t feel too sorry for those who took him in the first round this season.

The last 30 days… Dan Uggla has hit .133, B.J. Upton .136 and Adan Dunn .156. Think of how bad your team would currently be performing you had rostered all three of those guys this draft season. The crazy thing is, if I walked away from the draft table with those three I’d have been pumped. Guess that’s why they play the games.

By Ray Flowers

Numbers: A Look Back

Each week I write a piece entitled By The Numbers where I break down all forms of interesting information from the baseball diamond. In this entry I’m gonna take that same idea but go back in time with my time machine as I’ll list a bunch of interesting numbers and facts that pertain to players that have been immortalized in the HOF.

Luis Aparacio led the AL in steals in each of his first nine seasons in the league (his high was 56). From 1960-64 he stole 51, 53, 31, 40 and 57 bases each season. While none of those totals are outlandish, it should be pointed out that the game was played differently back then with base runners rarely attempting a steal. In fact, during that five year only one other rival was able to steal as many as 30 bases in a season.

Yogi Berra is one of the greatest hitting catchers of all-time (11 times he went deep 20 times and nine times he produced at least 90 RBI). He also won the MVP award on three separate occasions. But perhaps the most amazing number of all in his career is the fact that he struck out 12 times, twelve, in 1950 over the span of 597 at-bats. He was no slap hitter that year either producing a batting line of .322 with 28 homers and 124 RBI for the Yankees.

Sandy Koufax led the NL in ERA each of the last five seasons of his career (he had to retire with elbow problems at the age of merely 30). Three times he posted a mark below 1.90, and his five year run resulted in an overall ERA of 1.95 in that time. He also went 111-34 during that five year year of excellence for the Dodgers (.766 winning percentage).

Juan Marichal led baseball with 191 victories during the 1960′s. Three times in that decade he won at least 25 games, but he was never able to win the Cy Young award

Bill Mazeroski made the Hall of Fame despite the fact that he never hit even .285 in a season. Moreover his career mark was .260, he had a pathetic .299 OBP, and his career OPS was a frightening .267. He did however make six All-Star teams while also winning eight Gold Gloves as one of the finest fielding second basemen of all-time. It’s ironic that he is most remembered for hitting the first walk-off homer in World Series history in Game 7 when the Pirates defeated the Yankees in 1960 on his blast.

Amos Rousie is a HOF pitchers who won 246 games in his career with a 3.07 ERA from 1889-1901 (he won 30-games 4-straight seasons). Still, he was far from a control artist as he led the league in walks five straight seasons with a high of 289 batters in 1890, the most ever in a single season. At the same time you’ll want to cut the guy a little bit of slack since he tossed 548.2 innings in that season. In fact, in the five seasons that he led the league in walks, each season with at least 200 free passes, he never threw less than 444 innings. During that fateful season of 1890 his BB/9 rate was 4.74 which is actually a hair lower than the 4.78 mark that Scott Kazmir currently has to lead the “worst” list of 2010.

Hoyt Wilhelm was the first pitcher in big league history to win the ERA title despite the fact that he spent the entire season in the bullpen. In 1952, his rookie season mind you, Hoyt led the league with a 2.43 ERA and 71 games pitched. Since the NL played 154 games that year, his total of 159.1 innings was enough for him to qualify for the ERA title. He won 15 games and saved 11 on his way to another league leading figure, a .833 winning percentage.

Ted Williams won the Triple Crown in 1942 (.356-36-137) and 1947 (.343-32-114). He didn’t win the MVP in either season as he finished second in ’42 and ’47. Amazingly, Williams also led the league in OBP each season (.499 and .497) as well as SLG (.648 and .634) yet he still wasn’t awarded the trophy. Moreover, and this is truly amazing, from 1941-42, and 1946-49 (he missed 1943-45 serving in World War II), Williams led the AL in OBP and SLG in each and every season. All told, he led the AL in both slash categories an amazing nine times. As great as Albert Pujols is he has done that only one time (in 2009).

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag – May 14th

I’m in a 12-team head-to-head mixed league and my pitching has been horrendous, to say the least, to start the season. I thought it would be one of my strengths, but so far my players just haven’t lived up to expectations. We start a typical 5-man rotation and I have Verlander, Beckett, Kazmir, Floyd, Zambrano and Niemann as my mainstays. I’ve also been playing some matchups with Wade LeBlanc and Brett Myers and have added some solid arms in Colby Lewis and Derek Holland. I’m not too concerned about Beckett, but Kazmir looks very hittable and Floyd has just been plain awful. I’m also not sure if Zambrano will ever find his way back into the starting rotation. Do you think I need to make a move for another more reliable arm or will my rotation improve enough to allow me to compete?
– Mike, Boston, MA

Well Mike, I have to compliment you on rostering a tremendous group of arms. Obviously not all of these arms are currently on your roster, but I thought I would run through the 10 arms mentioned and give my quick thoughts on each before giving my recommendation.

Justin Verlander: A top of the rotation hurler. Verlander routinely throws high 90′s gas late into games, is currently sporting a solid 8.51 K/9 mark, and has allowed four earned runs in his last four starts.

Josh Beckett: His back issue seems minor. As for his performance, I have no idea where his .365 BABIP has come from (career .303), nor his inability to locate his pitches early on (his 3.51 BB/9 mark would be his worst mark since 2003 and is three-quarters of a batter above his career rate of 2.76). I think he should be fine and is a great buy low candidate – provided he is healthy.

Scott Kazmir: Will get at least one more shot at staying in the rotation for the Angels, but his performance has been troubling. His fastball speed is 90.1 mph, a career low, and the third straight year of a mph decrease. His vaunted slider? That one is down to 79.4. It was 84 mph in 2006. You cannot have success with a 1.26 K/BB mark.

Gavin Floyd: He has a 6.92 ERA but his Fielder Independent Pitching ERA (FIP) is just 4.16. The problem this year has been the walk (3.69 compared to a mark below 3.10 each of the past three years) and the fact that his BABIP rate is .371 (career .296). He is primed for a turnaround.

Carlos Zambrano: Will remain in the pen for now, but I would be shocked if that lasted all year (Carlos Silva and/or Tom Gorzelanny will eventually fail). In 27 innings this season Big Z has 32 Ks (10.67 K/9) and his current 2.67 K/BB mark is a career best. All of this has occurred despite and absurd .482 BABIP mark (career .283).

Jeff Niemann: More of what we saw last season. He won’t maintain his current ratios (2.27 ERA and 1.01 WHIP), not with the same K/BB (2.15 this year vs. 2/12 last year), HR/9 (0.82 vs. 0.85) and GB/FB (1.06 and 1.03) rate as last year, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be able to match his marks of last season.

Wade LeBlanc: He simply doesn’t have the stuff to sustain his early success (1.61 ERA, 7.39 K/9), but he also shouldn’t be saddled with his current WHIP of 1.46. He has balanced out his massive .356 mark by not allowing a single home run and is a solid depth arm at the back of a rotation, though not someone you want to start in all matchups.

Brett Myers: It may not always be pretty with Myers, but in seven starts he has four “quality starts” and every time out he has gone at least six innings. He’s had success by throwing strikes (his 2.54 BB/9 mark would be a career best) and by not being beaten like a piñata deep (0.78 HR/9 versus a career mark of 1.33).

Colby Lewis: His return to the States has gone swimmingly with a 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 9.66 K/9 mark. You’d have to think he has been a bit fortunate given his 7.8 HR/F mark, .273 BABIP and 0.79 HR/9, but it has been a wonderful first seven starts with the Rangers.

Derek Holland: The arm of the future for the Rangers, Holland had a great first outing in which he held the A’s scoreless for six innings. He has the stuff to be successful for a decade, and it looks like the Rangers might move Matt Harrison to the bullpen to allow Holland to remain in the rotation.

To review:

Verlander is a horse.
Floyd and Beckett should rebound and be just fine.
Kazmir seems done.
Niemann is a nice arm to hold on to.
Zambrano – sooner or later I’m assuming he returns to starting.
LeBlanc is only a spot starter.
Myers is a solid depth arm.
Lewis is bringing the heat, but you might want to sell high.
Holland has tons of potential, but will he reach it in 2010?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April12, 2010

What is the deal with the massive amount of injuries to all-star caliber players in the opening month of the season? Here is a list of the players I’ll touch on today.

C: Miguel Montero

1B: Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee

2B: Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts

3B: Ryan Zimmerman, Chipper Jones

SS: Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

OF: Jacoby Ellsbury, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Gonzalez

SP: Cliff Lee, Scott Kazmir, Chris Young

RP: Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge

Also —

(1) Jack Cust accepts minor league deal. Does he have any value?

(2) Nelson Cruz bashing. Already has five homers leading to 38 HR, 85 RBI and 20 SB in his last 134 games.

(3) And Prince Fielder who wants at least $180 million, maybe more than $200, to sign long-term.

By Ray Flowers

MLB: Ups and Downs

Day 2 of the major league season has been a bore (OK, it was Day 3, but the first day only had the Yankees and Red Sox playing, so you know what I mean). A day after all that excitement, the Albert Pujols homers, the 6-inning no-hit bid from Shaun Marcum, and the homer in his first major league at-bat from Jason Heyward, everyone was fired up. Roughly 24 hours later, it’s like your dog died. Major league baseball, in it’s unfailing wisdom, scheduled seven games for the second full day of games, but not a single one was scheduled to start before 7:10 PM EST. That’s right. A day after all of that excitement to kick off the campaign, major league baseball didn’t schedule a single day game, not one. I’m all for making a buck, but seriously MLB, how greedy can you be? Schedule a flipping day game. There is no excuse, none, that there should ever be a day in which at least one game is played during the day. I don’t care about TV rights or gate receipts, baseball was meant to be played during the day under the sun. So get with it MLB – some things are more important than the almighty dollar.

Zack Greinke hurled two run ball over six innings on Monday against the Tigers but wound up with a no decision when the bullpen blew his lead. That isn’t overly surprising for Greinke who was let down frequently last year. Amazingly, Greinke has allowed one or zero earned runs in 19 of his last 34 starts. That’s 56 percent of his starts since the beginning of the 2009 season.

Scott Kazmir was “very surprised” to learn that some shoulder weakness landed him on the DL to start the year. I’m only surprised that Kazmir still has a shoulder.

Casey Kotchman hitting third for the Mariners? Maybe they should have kept Russell Branyan after all.

Tim Lincecum was questioned about his struggles in camp both with velocity and results. After tossing seven shutout innings in dominating the Astros, no one is saying anything today.

Anyone else hate doing drafts on computers? The other day I was doing an AL-only auction and my computer crashed in the middle. I returned to learn that I missed out on Joba Chamberlain and Magglio Ordonez, two players I had been targeting in the middle rounds to get on the cheap. I did land Matt Guerrier though, and for $4, even though I didn’t have him in my queue, so I have no idea how he ended up on my squad. At least the computer didn’t give me Jason Berken for $4.

Jon Rauch has been named the closer with the Twins. He has some experience in the role and is a decent choice to fill in for the injured Joe Nathan. At the same time, he clearly shouldn’t be looked at as someone who has the job locked down. I just wish Pat Neshek was fully healthy (he is coming back from arm surgery though he has looked good so far).

Jose Reyes is still targeting a return to the Mets this weekend after an extended minor league game on Monday. In related news, the Mets are hoping that Oliver Perez can find the strike zone before then.

You gotta feel for the Giants’ Nate Schierholtz. Thought to be the man in right field after biding his time the past few years, he ended up struggling in spring and lost his starting spot to John Bowker who led the club in homers and RBI. Though you may not think things could get worse for Nate they did on Tuesday when the Giants, facing the Astros’ lefty Wandy Rodriguez, decided to go with Andres Torres in right field essentially meaning that Nate is the third right fielder at the moment. Schierholtz has the highest upside of that trio and still profiles as a decent outfield option in NL-only leagues, though I will admit the start to the 2010 season is certainly distressing.

Huston Street got good news on his injured shoulder. It doesn’t look like it will fly off at any point in the near future according to Dr. James Andrews. Street still hopes to return to the Rockies in early May, though who knows when he will be able to reclaim his ninth inning role from Franklin Morales.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Blogosphere

I’m going to do something I haven’t done in a long while, and that is I’m going to link to a bunch of pieces that I think you might find interesting – similar to what we do with our Blog Roll pieces at Fanball.com and Rototimes.com. With that, here are some of the pieces that have caught my attention of late.

Offseason Moves: AL West – This piece goes over the myriad of moves by the teams in the division including the additions of Ben Sheets, Hideki Matsui, Cliff Lee and Milton Bradley. It also details two players – Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero – that switched teams but stayed in the division.

Team Poll: Oakland A’s — We’ve been reviewing each team as a staff, giving our thoughts on which players are in line to break out, fail etc. The most recent piece focuses on the team from California.

Post-Hype Sleeper: Cameron Maybin — Some of the best options on draft day are those youngsters that didn’t quite live up to the hype in their first go round. Cameron Maybin just might fit that outlook provided that his operated on shoulder is healthy.

On Nathan and Broxton — Ted Carlson does a great job in discussing just what it means to be an effective reliever year after year. Here’s a shock – it’s a lot harder than you might think.

Updated Top 10s — Interested in what one of the best minds in the business thinks about who the top-10 players are at each position. I know what you’re thinking oo, and I’m not referring to myself here.

5 Questions: Chicago Cubs — Our Cardinals blogger has begun his look around the NL Central by starting with the team most figure will represent the biggest roadblock to the playoffs for the team from St. Louis.

Breaking Down: Cabrera/Garko/Gross – I hate to toot my own horn, but you didn’t think I wouldn’t being the braggart I am did you? Per the title, I break down the recent signings of Orlando Cabrera (Reds), Ryan Garko (Mariners) and Gabe Gross (Athletics).

Pick an Ace, Any Ace – How does the Angels’ rotation of Scott Kazmir, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro look to our intrepid Angels writer?

Player Profile: Mark Teahen — The White Sox are truly counting on one of their offseason acquisitions, infielder/outfielder Mark Teahen. He’s never really been a difference maker, but hopes are high that he might finally reach that status in 2010.

Monday Notes on the Rangers — Which players are in the news for the team from the south?

Diamondback Non-Roster Players — The D’backs are bringing 17 non-rostered players to spring training. Have you even heard of any of them before?

By Ray Flowers

Is Perception Reality?

Anecdotal evidence is unreliable when trying to paint a picture of something as the human mind tends to overemphasize what it has just witnessed paying little attention to things like context and history. Nowhere is this more apparent then when it comes to players being derided for playoff failures even though we are often talking about something like 5-10 games. With that …

Here is my daily Alex Rodriguez check up. After hitting .455 with two homers and six RBI in the ALDS, he has gone on to hit .375 with three homers and five RBI in the ALCS. He has been so hot that Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia even paid him the ultimate sign of respect by walking him intentionally with the bases empty. I’ve said it before too many times to count, but remember context and sample size people. Remember back three weeks ago when A-Rod was the biggest playoff choker ever? Now he has been hot for two weeks and all of a sudden everyone thinks he is the greatest thing since the invention of porn. Look at things this way. In his regular season career A-Rod has produced a .305/.390/.576 line, and with his recent hot streak his playoff numbers are nearly identical at .299/.388/.563. It all evens out folks, though sometimes the road is a bit bumpy.

Want to talk about a playoff choker? Well then, how about we look at Mark Teixeira who is 2-for-21 of late in the playoffs. I’m just kidding. Remember the value of sample size (give me 21 at-bats and I can make Babe Ruth look pitiful and Omar Vizquel look like a legend). However, the case of Chone Figgins is worth examining. Figgins has hit .291 during his regular season career of more than 3,500 at-bats, but come playoff time he has barely hit his weight at .174, though again we are talking about just 115 at-bats. Still, he has looked atrocious this post-season going just 2-for-34, good for a .059 average. We are talking about a handful of at-bats of course, but in his last seven playoffs series Figgins has hit under .150 five times. That’s ugly.

One of the major reasons that Scott Kazmir was brought to the Angels was because of his career-long success against he Bronx Bombers which can be seen in his 2.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.83 K/9 mark over 87.2 innings covering 15 appearances. So much for history as he went out and laid an egg against the Yankees allowing six hits, four walks and four runs in just four innings of work in the ALCS. As a result, his two post-season outings this season have resulted in an 8.10 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. I don’t think that is what the Angels had in mind when they traded for him. It’s just two starts – sample size people – but the two pathetic outings certainly leave a bad taste in Kazmir’s mouth after he had so much success down the stretch when he posted a 1.73 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in six starts with the team from Southern California.

One of the worst calls in playoff baseball history occurred yesterday. It hardly mattered as the Yankees crushed the Angels, but it was still galling in it’s ineptitude. You can watch the terrible call by clicking on the link where a full description of what went wrong is explained. Dreadful.

INJURY NEWS

Albert Pujols’ elbow surgery went well as a few bone chips (apparently five) were removed from his right wing, and Pujols’ should be fully prepared to play once spring training roles around. Still, the continued issues with Pujols’ right elbow are really starting to concern me. Nothing destroys a fantasy teams chance of winning a title like having your first round draft pick crap out (ask Jose Reyes owners), and with each “minor” procedure on Pujols’ elbow I grow more concerned. We all know he will eventually need Tommy John surgery given the partially torn elbow ligament he is dealing with, and just because he has been able to play through it without further exacerbating the problem the past few years is no guarantee that he will be able to do so in 2010. Honestly I’d have to do some serious number crunching before I could suggest passing on Pujols if you had the #1 spot in your draft, but a guy like Hanley Ramirez is starting to look awfully appealing despite the reduction in steals he posted in 2009 (just 27 after being over 35 each of the previous three years, though who really cares when you hit .342, score 101 runs, knock in 106 and play shortstop?).

By Ray Flowers