Trade Day Diary

The 2012 MLB Trade Deadline is upon us. At BaseballGuys.com there’s no way we could sit out the action which figures to be hot and heavy. We’ll be checking in throughout the day with some thoughts on all of the moves that you need to be made aware of as teams begin to set themselves up for the push for the playoffs.

COMPLETED DEALS

Dodgers Receive: Shane Victorino
Phillies Receive: RHP’s Josh Lindblom, Ethan Martin

The Dodgers get a much needed bat to his at the top of their order. An outfield of Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Victorino is the best trio in the NL. Victorino has had a bit of an up and down season but he’s been on top of his game since the All-Star break hitting .357 with five steals and 14 runs scored in 15 games. As a side note. The Phillies are going to call up Domonic Brown, so look for him to get a chance to play almost every day the rest of the way giving him solid value in NL-only leagues.

Rangers Receive: Geovanny Soto
Cubs Receive: RHP Jacob Brigham and some other stuff
(that “stuff” is either a PTBNL or cash).

Soto will slide into a backup job behind the dish since the Rangers already have Mike Napoli. Soto hasn’t hit since 2010, well he hit 17 homers and had 54 RBIs last year, but he also batted .228 last year and isn’t even hitting .200 this year with 35 hits in 176 at-bats (.199). He’ll obviously hold some AL-only value, but his days of even being a catcher #2 in 15 team, two catcher, mixed leagues appear done… at least for 2012. As a result of this deal the Rangers designated Yorvit Torrealba for assignment.

Dodgers Receive: Brandon League
Mariners Receive: RHP Logan Bawcom and OF Leon Landry

League obviously won’t be closing with Kenley Jansen already in town, but he should slide in very nicely in a support role in the Dodgers bullpen given that heavy, an I mean 16 lbs bowling ball heavy, fastball. Still, he’s sporting a 1.42 K/BB ratio in 44.2 innings, so I’m not a huge fan of dumping a lot of FAAB money to add him to an NL-only roster.

Phillies Receive: OF Nate Schierholtz, C Tommy Joseph, RHP Seth Rosin
Giants Receive: Hunter Pence and Cash

It’s about time the Giants added another power bat. Pence-Posey-Sandoval, when all healthy, finally gives the Giants a legitimate 3-4-5 set of bats in the middle of the order. The move to San Francisco doesn’t figure to help Pence much offensively though… or does it? The perception is that Philly is a great hitters park but check out the numbers which tell a different story. At home in 2012 Pence has a .721 OPS that is .121 below his .842 mark on the road.

Rangers Receive: Ryan Dempster
Cubs Receive: RHP Kyle Hendricks, 3B Christian Villanueva

The Cubs were in on Matt Garza too, but they deemed Dempster to be the better medical risk. Going to the AL to pitch in Texas isn’t going to do Dempster’s ratios any favors, not when he doesn’t deserve them in the first place. Still, it’s well worth spending big in AL-only leagues to acquire his services. As a result of his addition the mightily struggling Roy Oswalt has been sent to the bullpen, though the club might still need his services as a starter at some point after the club also announced that Neftali Feliz will have to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Reds Receive: Jonathan Broxton
Royals Receive: LHP Donnie Joseph, RHP J.C. Sulbaran

As a set up man with the Reds, Broxton’s fantasy value is in the total toilet. Given the massive regression in his K/9 this year there is no reason to bother having him on your roster in a mixed league unless you are looking for holds. Broxton should form a tremendous bridge to Aroldis Chapman alongside Sean Marshall. In KC, it seems like Aaron Crow or Greg Holland will be asked to close, though Kelvin Herrera is also in the mix. My money is on Holland.

Yankees Receive: Casey McGehee
Pirates Receive: Chad Qualls

McGehee will help to fill in while A-Rod misses time on the shelf. Hitting just .230 on the year with eight homers, the last time that McG was an impactful hitter for an extended period of time was 2010 when he hit .285 with 23 homers and 104 RBIs. Qualls may not even be worth adding in NL-only leagues.

Pirates Receive: Gaby Sanchez
Marlins Receive: Gorkys Hernandez, RHP Kyle Kaminska, a 2013

Sanchez hit .273 with 18 homers, 85 RBIs and 72 runs scored in 2010. Last year he hit .266 with 19 homers, 78 RBIs and 72 runs scored. This year he’s been hideous appearing in only 55 big league games (he’s spent a lot of time in the minors). In 183 at-bats Sanchez has hit .202 with three homers. A worthwhile gamble for the Pirates, but don’t expect much production the reest of this season.

Red Sox Receive: Craig Breslow
D’backs Receive: Scott Podsednik, Matt Albers 

The Sox sent out two spare parts for lefty who has been a very solid bullpen arm since entering the league in 2005. He’s enjoy a fine season this year with a 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 3.23 K/BB ratio. None of these three is worth a look in anything other than league specific setups

Cardinals Receive: Edward Mujica
Marlins Receive: 3B Zack Cox

One more name removed for 9th inning work with the Marlins. Mujica had a 2.96 ERA in 67 games last season but his 6.00 K/9 mark is his lowest since 2007 and he continues to be plagued by the long ball. Cox was a first round selection in 2010, but he’s struggled to find consistency. This year he has hit a mere .254 with nine homers and an OPS of .716 at Triple-A.

NOT TRADED: Rafael Betancourt, Stephen Drew, Chase Headley, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Denard Span, Justin Upton

 By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed. Third, at the bottom of this piece is a chance to partake in a FREE daily fantasy baseball game with a chance to play for $250 in prizes. Psst. I’m in the league too. Think you can best The Oracle?

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Adam Dunn vs. Clayton Kershaw:  Up to 22 homers and 50 RBIs, Dunn has had a great bounce back season. However, why on earth would I suggest playing a guy who has hit .183 against lefties this season when that same player has hit .223 against port siders in his career? It’s only a handful of games mind you, but Dunn has annihilated Kershaw in 11 at-bats going deep three times, driving in seven runs and batting .636. That’s why.

Scott Podsednik vs. Ryan Dempster: Three times in his last four games Pods has produced two or more hits, and in 51 at-bats with the Red Sox this year he has hit .373 with four steals. Facing Dempster he’s also been a producer with seven hits in 18 at-bats (.389) and he’s also walked four times leading to a .500 OBP.

Ben Revere vs. Yovani Gallardo: The speedster with the Twins has a hit in nine of 10 games to raise his average up to .339 (he’s had two or more hits in six of those games). He’s also swiped six bags while scoring nine runs in those 10 outings. Give him a matchup with a pitcher that he’s produced four hits in 10 at-bats against and he would seem to be a borderline must start.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ryan Dempster vs. Red Sox: Dempster has allowed one or zero runs in three of his last four outings. He’s also tossed 15 scoreless innings in his last two outings while walking a single batter to lower his ratios to Maddux-like levels (2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). Current Sox batters are hitting only .246 against Dempster as well, so are you willing to take a shot on the righty in this matchup?

Kyle Lohse vs. Royals: Current Royals hitters have only 50 at-bats off Lohse, but to say they have lacked success would be a massive understatement. The club has hit .240 against him with a .615 OPS as they have failed to go deep, have drawn only one walk, and struck out seven times.

Ryan Vogelsong vs. Mariners: In 30 outings last season Vogelsong had a 2.71 ERA. In 11 starts this year that number is 2.26. Over his last eight starts six times he’s permitted one/zero earned runs, and the two times he didn’t he allowed a total of five runs over 13.1 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Rajai Davis vs. Cliff Lee: Davis has stolen four bags in his last seven games, and though he has only 99 at-bats on the year he’s swiped 14 bases. He’s also hit a fair clip over his last 31 games batting .278. There isn’t much to go on with this matchup but in 11 at-bats Davis has produced six hits (.545 average).

Brandon Phillips vs. Jonathon Niese: Brandon Phillips has five hits in 10 at-bats against Niese, and two of those hits have been big flies. Phillips has also really kicked his game into gear in June hitting .353 with three homers and 13 RBI in 12 games.

Gaby Sanchez vs. James Shields: If you want about the most random call you could possibly find, look no further. Sanchez has produced six hits, including a homer, and five RBI in 13 at-bats against Shields, good for a .462 average. Of course Sanchez is hitting, if you can call it that, .190 on the year and has only two hits in 15 at-bats since he was recalled from the minors.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Chad Billingsley vs. White Sox: Chad has allowed two runs over 14 inning in his last two starts leading to two victories. Billingsley has also struck out eight batters in three of his last four outings. The question is – which Billingsley will show up? The guy who throws strikes or the one who nibbles and walks four or five batters and gets into trouble?

Tim Lincecum vs. Mainers: Once more into the breach… this might be it. I might have to change my thoughts on Lincecum if he doesn’t come through with a strong outing. (1) His rotation spot is in danger (the Giants might move him to the bullpen to work on things). (2) He’s basically returning home to pitch in Seattle. (3) The Mariners have the 4th worst batting average (.234) and the second worst OBP (.297) in baseball. This is it Timmy – make it happen.

James Shields vs. Marlins: I know I just mentioned how Sanchez hits Shields hard, but that’s not something the rest of the Marlins can say. If we remove Sanchez work the Marlins club has hit .217 with a mere seven RBIs over 129 at-bats.

CONTEST – TAKE ON RAY FLOWERS

Daily Joust is offering you a chance to make some free money, and you get to also take me on in the process (if you beat me you get another $5 bonus).

BaseballGuys has partnered with DailyJoust.com to give everyone an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season. There is a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday June 15th starting at 7pm EST.

That’s right, it’s FREE to enter, and you get a chance to play for $250 in prizes (there is also a 40% deposit bonus up to $400).

Choose your roster with the following positional requirements: C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

1. To register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest click on the BBGuys Landing Page and sign up.

2.  Watch the live scoring on DailyJoust to see how your team stacks up against the competition – and me.

Are you game?

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Still Simmering

The pull of Christmas continues to strengthen with each passing day as it becomes harder and harder to actually focus on your tasks at work (don’t tell me you don’t feel it’s pull). That doesn’t mean that the world of baseball is off for the holidays. In fact, it’s just the opposite as there are quite a few pertinent news stories making the rounds on this day.

Adrian Beltre: Backed by the evil Scott Boras, Beltre is apparently turning his nose up slightly at the 5-year, $70 million deal the Angels have extended the third baseman. Why? Because he’d like a sixth year of course. Beltre is a consistent run producer who also plays fine defense, but he isn’t a .300 hitting 30 homer guy, so he should be plenty happy with what the Angels are offering, especially since there doesn’t appear to be another team willing to offer that much money. Beltre would also be wise to realize that he will 37 years old at the end of a five year deal, so I don’t know how many organizations are going to be clamoring to give him a sixth season when he will be 38 years old. The Angels are pretty desperate to add him after losing Hideki Matsui to free agency and losing out on guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, but let’s hope they do the smart thing and hold fast on their current offer which is, in my opinion, too high already.

LATE ADDITION: Seems like the Angels came to the same conclusion that I did. With the ink barely dry on this article, a report surfaced in the Los Angeles Times that the Angels have withdrawn their offer to Beltre (Angels Pull Offer). Seems like they called Scott Boras’ bluff and have flat out dared him to find another team willing to give his client $70 million. Who will blink first?

David Freese: A total wild card this season since he is coming off surgeries to both ankles. Freese is said to be progressing well, but he still hasn’t even been cleared to run yet. He has hit .299 in 271 big league at-bats, but at this point he should be restricted to merely being a late round flier in NL-only leagues.

Brett Gardner: The fleet of foot outfielder had offseason surgery on his wrist, and like Freese, everything is heading in the right direction with his recovery and Gardner expects to be 100 percent by Spring Training. (Brett said he was only a couple of weeks behind his “normal” offseason workout schedule). While somewhat overlooked because of the juggernaut around him, Gardner had a hell of a fantasy season last year which included being one of just three players in baseball who stole 45 bases, knocked in 45 runs, and scored at least 95 times (the others were Juan Pierre and Carl Crawford). Depending on what region of the country you live in, Gardner might be a relative bargain on draft day, especially if he was able to secure a spot at the top of the Yankees’ lineup.

Scott Podsednik: The Angels missed out on their top offseason target when Carl Crawford signed with the Red Sox. So their reaction is to try and sign Scott Podsednik? Pods can still motor, he had 35 steals last season while hitting .297, but come on now. He’s 35 years old and he shouldn’t be anything more than a fourth outfield option on an upper division club. He’s really nothing more than a replacement level player at this point of his career, even with the gaudy steal total. That doesn’t mean he has no fantasy value, the guy does have 65 thefts the past two years while hitting .300, and he could score a bunch of runs if he was signed by the Angels and inserted at the top of their run and gun batting order. All I’m saying is that he really isn’t that valuable a real world player.

David Price: I had a debate at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account this week about why I wouldn’t have David Price ranked in my top-10 starting pitchers this season. To me the answer is simple – he doesn’t belong there. I know he was second in the AL in wins (19) and third in ERA (2.72), but his peripheral numbers simply don’t support that level of performance. (1) His walk rate of 3.41 per nine was worse than the big league average (3.28). He did offset that fact a bit with his solid 8.11 K/9 mark, but his resulting 2.38 K/BB ratio is only barely better than the 2010 big league average of 2.17. (2) Price posted a 1.10 GB/FB ratio which was, again, big league average. It also wasn’t any different from his 1.05 mark of 2009 when he posted a 4.42 ERA. (3) Price had a left on base percentage of 78.5 percent in ’10. Given that the big league average is 70 percent, that’s a pretty darn high total (to compare Price with another great lefty, Cliff Lee’s mark was 67.9 percent). It’s almost impossible to posit another run at 80 percent from Price. (4) His ERA was lucky. There, I said it. Price’s FIP mark was 3.42, well above his raw ERA mark of 2.72. In addition, his DIPS ERA was 3.55 while his Component ERA was 2.92. You don’t have to know how those numbers are computed to understand that all three of those measures point to his actual ERA of 2.72 being far too low based on his overall level of performance. Price will not fail, he is too talented for that, and his one batter improvement in his K/9 rate last season is exciting, but I would be pretty shocked if he was able to once again keep his ERA under 3.00 this season, and few pitchers win 19 games in back-to-back seasons (Adam Wainwright and CC Sabathia are the only two hurlers that have done it the past two years).

Brandon Webb: The injured righty continues to receive lots of love from teams around the league that are hoping to strike it rich with the former ace. Teams that appears to be heavily in on Webb include the Cubs, Nationals and Rangers, though at one point or another he has been linked to about half the teams in baseball. I know he was a star from 2005-08, but the guy had major shoulder surgery, looked terrible late in the year according to some scouting reports, and he has thrown all of four innings the past two seasons. Hopefully everyone learned from the Ben Sheets debacle of last season (1-year, $10 million for 20 starts) that Webb’s contract should be something like 90 percent incentive driven.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 11, 2010

(1) Giants trade for Mike Fontenot.

(2) Curtis Granderson to revamp swing.

(3) Ryan Braun (wrist) takes swings in the cage.

(4) Gordon Beckham (groin) back in lineup.

(5) Placido Polanco will try to play through elbow injury.

(6) Astros have trouble in the 9th inning.

(7) Matt Kemp out of the Lineup Again. Should you be concerned?

By Ray Flowers

Tuesday Digest

Did you catch the Nick Swisher pitching outing on Monday? It was a classic. Besides working a scoreless inning in the Yankees debacle (they lost 15-5), he was the only one of the five Yankees who threw a pitch and didn’t allow a run, Swisher also went deep at the plate. As a result, he currently leads the Yankees in batting average (.450), home runs (three), RBI (10) and ERA (0.00). Asked about his outing on the mound in which he threw “fastballs” ranging from 71-80 mph, Swisher had this to say. “I felt that I wanted to go out there and get three outs. I had fun with it. I mean, when am I ever going to have the chance to do that again? Probably never.” The best part of the whole deal? After striking out Gabe Kapler, Swisher asked to keep the ball. Whatever you think of the guy, there isn’t a “looser” guy in the game. Gotta love that attitude.

At the other end of the spectrum as far as personality goes is Lastings Milledge. I was going to do a big expose on the meat head, but Ted Carlson beat me to it with Gut Punch . I’m not giving up on Milledge yet, and it might be a great time to try and get him on the cheap from his undoubtedly frustrated current owner.

Melvin Mora appears likely to be headed to the DL due to continued issues with his hamstring. If that is the case, Ty Wigginton will become the immediate third baseman and must be owned in all fantasy formats. Ty has averaged 23 home runs the past three seasons despite only picking up an average of 459 AB a season, and only needs a spot in the everyday lineup to be a valuable fantasy option. Don’t forget he is also eligible at third base and the outfield giving him even more value. As for Mora, he shouldn’t be out long-term, but if Wigginton impresses, Mora may not so easily recapture his daily spot in the lineup. Ah who am I kidding, when he is healthy he will be out there.

The White Sox are down to Brian Anderson in centerfield now that DeWayne Wise has been placed on the DL due to the shoulder injury he suffered which will keep him out 6-8 weeks. Think they wished they had held on to Nick Swisher now? As for Anderson, well, the Sox clearly have to upgrade the position if they are serious about contending in 2009, and by that we don’t mean calling up Jerry Owens, which they did, or signing Scott Podsednik, which they did. In 603 career ABs, Anderson has gone deep 18 times with 62 RBI while he has also stolen 12 bags. While that sounds like decent production for a centerfielder, the rest of his line is embarrassing for a guy who thinks he deserves a shot at a full season of at-bats: .221/.278/.376. Speaking of Podsednik, he should be worth a look in AL-only leagues as he is clearly a better option than Owens with his ability to get on base (.337 to .321) and steals bags (40 as recently as 2006 for the White Sox).

Milton Bradley already on the shelf for 3-5. What a shock.

Cody Ross is just 2-for-22 this season (.091). He has struck out five times without a walk, a terribly slow start for a guy who hit 22 bombs with 73 RBI last season in 461 AB. Look for him to rebound, though we probably saw the upside he has to offer last year.

Rickie Weeks is a man. He took an Edinson Volquez up and in fastball off his chin and said he is fine. Week’s wasn’t in the lineup on Tuesday, the team chose to give him a day off after he has played every game so far, but he should be back for the team’s next game. He is off to a solid start hitting .276/.364/.448 with four RBI, seven runs and a steal in seven games.