Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.3

It’s tax day. So after you fill out the forms, I know you didn’t get on it early since everyone loves to procrastinate so much, here is my report on the just completed week of free agency for the main fantasy baseball leagues I’m doing this season.

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): With Derek Jeter taking forever to get back out on the field, I’ve been using Luis Cruz for two weeks. No more. In his stead I added Ruben Tejada for $1. He hit .300 the past week with two runs scored and two RBIs. Hey, it’s better than Cruz has done in two weeks (he is hitting .091 with one run and one RBI). I also placed Zack Greinke on the DL and added two start hurler Eric Stults for a buck. He starts at the Dodgers Monday and then at the Giants on the 21st. Those aren’t world beating moves by any stretch of the imagination, but maybe I’ll get a good week or two out of them.

Trade: I gave up Howie Kendrick and Jon Jay for Kenley Jansen, David Murphy and $5 FAAB in a deal with Cory Schwartz of MLB.com. I need pen arms. Jose Veras isn’t getting it done and now Joel Hanrahan is dealing with that leg issue of his so I wanted to be a bit preemptive here (losing Greinke puts a damper on my SP hopes, so I thought I would attack the ratios with RPs). I can slot Daniel Murphy at second and then Emilio Bonifacio at the middle infield spot to cover up the hole Kendrick left. Oh, and I need power as well. David Murphy isn’t a huge power bat, but he could easily hit 10 more homers than Jay who I gave up. Plus, this is an OBP league and Murphy was actually 6th in the AL last season with a career best .380 OBP (except for that .384 mark he posted in 105 at-bats in 2007).

LABR (12 team, AL-only): This league has some different rules. If you remove one of the 23 starters from your lineup that were taken on draft day, then you have to release them. The only way you can change your lineup is to release a starter or to have one placed on the disabled (you can then obviously replace them in your lineup). Therefore, there doesn’t tend to be a ton of free agent movement each week (as an example I really want to replace Joe Blanton in my lineup right now, but I can’t because that would mean I would have to send him to the waiver-wire). There were six pickups this week: Eric Sogard ($6), Justin Grimm ($5), Hank Congar ($3), Munenori Kawasaki ($2), Steve Delabar ($1) and Joe Ortiz ($1).

FSTA (13 team mixed): Sean Marshall went to the DL to join Shaun Marcum and Hanley Ramirez. To take the two open roster spots this week (Marcum and Marshall) I added Matt Adams ($36) and Felix Doubront ($13). The Sox hurler is a two start arm this week (@CLE) and (KC) and Adams is killing it right now (11-for-18 with three homers). Isn’t it a matter of time before Allen Craig and or Carlos Beltran get hurt? There’s a 30 homer bat with Adams, though he doesn’t have a spot in the daily lineup so it’s more of a hopeful move than anything.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): I bid on two relievers, but both went for more than my bids. I tossed $7 at Jim Henderson. He went for $27. I then tried to add Kelvin Herrera for $6. He went for $18. A few others of note: Juan Francisco ($7), Evan Gattis ($6) and Paul Maholm ($6). In retrospect, I should have bid on Joaquin Benoit ($3) and Trevor Rosenthal ($1). This is what happens when you are in too many leagues. You sometimes don’t spend enough time looking over the waiver-wire.

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): This is the only league with an open waiver-wire. Over the past few days I made a couple of moves. I dropped Edinson Volquez when Aaron Crow got a save on the off chance Crow might get a look in the 9th. He won’t. I then dropped Crow to add Sergio Santos later in the week. I then, and stop me if you notice a musical chairs situation with relievers, dropped Vinnie Pestano to add Josh Rutledge when Jose Reyes went down with injury. When Reyes was officially placed on the DL, we have two DL spots in this league, I put Reyes on the DL and then added Michael Saunders. I then put Saunders on the DL and added Wellington Castillo since Carlos Santana is still dealing with injury. Noticing that the Cards might go with Edward Mujica in the 9th inning, I then dropped Castillo and added Mujica. Oh, and then for good measure I dropped Santos and added Tony Cingrani when the Reds announced that Johnny Cueto could miss some serious time with a lat injury. See how much of a mess things can be when you have a first come, first serve waiver-wire?

K-BAD (12 team mixed): As the owner of Cishek, Jansen, Parnell, Storen and Robertson, I’m clearly loading up on big time arms that may or may not get saves. Thought I might as well add another to the mix so for $42 of $1000 I rostered Andrew Bailey. I didn’t have to drop anyone as I put Hanley Ramirez on the DL as I did with Gordon Beckham. I replaced the White Sox second sacker with Chris Getz for $14. Howard Bender went nutso in one of the most aggressive weeks of FAAB spending I have ever seen. Howard adding five players… at a cost of $497. Wow is right – Jeremy Guthrie ($71), Vernon Wells ($76), Justin Maxwell ($86), Justin Masterson ($163) and Cody Ross ($101). Talk about going for it. Two others of note that didn’t go to Howard included Yonder Alonso who went for $154 and Barry Zito who went for $91.

FANBALL (13 team mixed): I admit it. I went for the gusto. Going against my usual common sense approach, I decided to add a big armed, totally unproven arm in Tony Cingrani for $9. I dropped the struggling Edinson Volquez to do it. I don’t know how long Cingrani will stick around but thought I might as well take a shot on what could potentially be one of the biggest arms we see come up from the minors this week. Evan Gattis ($8), James Russell ($5), Cody Ross ($4), Jake Westbrook ($3) and Eric Sogard ($3) were the only other adds that cost more than $2.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Baseball – FAAB Report, Wk.2

I made an executive decision over the weekend when I was away drinking champagne and sitting in front of the fire with my friend in Carmel (she was decidedly better looking than the Peep that you see in main photo, and she is even sweeter than my sugary friend as well). I decided that every Monday I’d run through my seven main leagues that I’m doing this season and regale you with my personal FAAB decisions. Hopefully it won’t be as boring as it sounds and you’ll all be able to get something out of my personal decisions on many of the same players you will all be looking at each week.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Oh, and before I get to my moves. Remember this – IT’S EARLY. If you want to tweak your roster, fine. But one week of games is far too early to do anything rash like blowing your club up. Patience. Now where is my robe, room service and snuggle time? Am I the only one that thinks returning to the real world blows chunks sometimes?

TOUT WARS (15 team mixed): I didn’t make any moves this week. I tried to release Mike Adams for Jim Henderson but my $6 bid (out of $100) fell well short of the $13 that he went for. Chris Heisey went for $9, Jose Fernandez for $8 and Jose Valverde going for $7. No other player cost more than $3.

LABR (12 team, AL-only): Slim pickings in a league specific setup. I added Matt Lindstrom for $2 (out of $100) as I put Jeff Niemann on the DL. Other adds in a rather quiet week (I had Jose Valverde on reserve in this league and that could turn out to be huge if he gains the closer’s role): Blake Beaven ($1), Jayson Nix ($1), Eric Sogard ($6), Sam Fuld ($3), Kevin Correia ($4), Shelly Duncan ($2), Brett Cecil ($2) and Drew Smyly $13 (I bid $8 for him).

FSTA (13 team mixed): Seventeen players were added here. Part of the reason for that is that this league drafted in January which leaves many more options to add early in the year that have since our draft gained roles. Jim Henderson ($56), Jeremy Guthrie ($71), Rajai Davis ($99) were the highest adds ($1,000 budget). I added one player – Sergio Santos ($9). I put Shaun Marcum in the DL to make the move.

SIRIUSXM EXPERTS (12 team mixed): I had to place Hanley Ramirez on the DL so I needed a middle infielder. I really wanted Eduardo Nunez, but given his biceps issue, and the fact that I couldn’t afford another injured middle infield option, I added Chris Nelson for $5 (out of my $100 budget). The big add of the week in the league was Jose Fernandez ($19) with only one other player in double-digits (Jose Valverde at $11).

SIRIUSXM LISTENER LG (11 team mixed): I didn’t make a single move in this league. This is the only league I’m in that moves can be made on a daily basis so there is no pressure to set up FAAB – you just free for all with it (which you all know I hate). There have been a ton of moves in this league – hello John Buck, Jackie Bradley and Jaime Garcia – but it’s only 11 teams and it’s a long season.

K-BAD (12 team mixed): Eleven total players were added this week. The big money guys – $1,000 budget – included Kelvin Herrera ($167), Jose Valverde ($62) and Jim Henderson ($62). Obviously trolling for saves eats up a lot of a FAAB budget as you’ve seen in many of the leagues listed here. That’s why it always makes sense to try and attach the position a week early. You could have gotta Herrera or Valverde or Henderson for a $1 a week ago. Now look what you have to spend to get the. My add of the week – I only went $32 for Henderson and $31 for Valverde since I’m not convinced either ends up leading his team in saves – was Drew Storen for $3. He’s an elite talent who is one injury or a couple of more bad outings from Rafael Soriano from working the 9th inning for the Nationals. I released Shaun Marcum.

FANBALL (13 team mixed): I added one player in this league – Jose Valverde ($3 of $100). Now I don’t love Valverde by any means, but after the Rockies decided to demote Tyler Colvin I thought I’d take a shot on adding a guy who could end up as the Tigers’ closer by the end of the month (letting go of a minor leaguer for a potential closer can’t be viewed as a bad move). If not, I’ll just use that spot to rotate weekly depending on need. In fact, only nine players were added by the 12 others in the league. The most cost add was a tied between Jim Henderson ($4) and Chris Heisey ($4). Mark Buehrle and Jeff Francoeur were dropped, two moves I have no problem with.

By Ray Flowers

AL LABR 2013

Phoenix Arizona.

Not many fantasy baseball leagues mean more than LABR in the world of fantasy sports. Started by John Hunt 20 years ago, it was the first exposure many of us had to fantasy baseball, at least the first chance to really dig into the mind of the experts in the field to find out why they did what they did on draft day (for more on the history of the event see Steve Gardner’s wonderful piece). I’m honored that I’ve been asked to be a part of the event.

Last year, despite drafting a team that was literally called the worst of all-time by everyone, I ended up being tied for first place in the last week of the season before eventually finishing in 2nd place to Steve Moyer. That was in the NL though. This year I was moved over the the AL. How did my team turn out? I think it looks better on paper than the club I rostered last year. Time will tell.

12 team AL-only
$260
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (the reserves are chosen via a snake draft)

C: Derek Norris ($2), Hector Gimenez (2)
1B: Eric Hosmer (22)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (29)
3B: Kevin Youkilis (11)
SS: Ben Zobrist (25)
MI: Howie Kendrick (18)
CI: Josh Donaldson (6)
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury (24), Nick Swisher (18), Chris Young (11), Drew Stubbs (13), Nate McLouth (4)
UT: Kelly Johnson (10)

PITCHERS: Sergio Santos (8), Grant Balfour (12), James Shields (20), C.J. Wilson (10), Chris Archer (4), Jeff Niemann (4), Joe Blanton (3), Joel Peralta (3), Ubaldo Jimenez (1)

BENCH: Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson, Michael Pineda, Jimmy Paredes, Marwin Gonzalez, Quintin Berry

My catchers are weak – the down unit of what just might be an impressive offense. I refused to pay $10 for Jason Castro or $13 for Alex Avila (14 catchers went for double-digits. Crazy).

Hosmer went for only $1 less than Mark Teixeira, but I felt like the youngster, who I’ve touted many times before, has a chance to rebound to his 2011 levels, and then some if it all clicks. At third I rostered Kevin Youkilis, another one of “my guys” this year. You may not love him but at $11 I think it’s hard to find fault with his addition (Mitch Moreland went for $10). At corner, I’ve got Donaldson. He’s got legit power. I’ve been telling folks to think Casey Blake like levels of production if he gets 500 at-bats.

I went second base crazy. It was not a plan. I targeted Pedroia as the big dollar guy I wanted. I wanted also to grab Howie Kendrick as a strong MI option. Mission accomplished. The Johnson pick was the one I look at on offense and say – maybe/maybe not. If he goes 16/13 as he has each of the last three years, only he and Brandon Phillips can say they have done that at second base, I’ll be fine with the $10 bid. Oh, an I also grabbed my main man, Zobrist, who qualifies at second, shortstop and outfield.

Ellsbury could be the steal of the draft — IF he plays 140 games. I backed off Yoenis Cespedes at $29. Desmond Jennings at $26 was too steep too. I went to $26 on Austin Jackson before he eventually went for $27. Licking my wounds, I got Ellsbury with the next selection directly after AJax… for $24, only one dollar more than Nick Markakis and eight less than Jose Bautista. Young and Stubbs are risks, but it’s an AL-only league. Those two guys could hit 40 homers and steals 50 bags. Hey, it’s possible. Swisher is boring, but boring and stable is fine in this format. McLouth had a nice finishing kick last year, Nolan Reimold is always hurt, and Wilson Betemit is currently the Orioles DH. Sounds like McLouth could get plenty of playing time.

On the hill…

I got Shields to be my horse. I was waiting, and waiting and waiting on Scherzer. When he was finally brought up, I had to pass. I pushed the bidding up to $24, but bowed out when he went for $25 (he was the last big arm left which inflated his cost significantly). I then settled on Brandon Morrow as my fall back #2 starter – until his price soared to $19. Luckily I was able to get Wilson shortly thereafter, for only $10 mind you, and with his elbow apparently sound that was a great pick given the cost of the two righties that went right before him. I rounded out the rotation with Niemann and Blanton, two stable and cheap commodities, and took a shot on the young but oh so talented Archer for just $4. Finally, my last starter was Jimenez, an as my lone $1 player, why not?

In the pen, things were pricey. I struck early with Santos and Balfour – a power duo with some minor health concern woes, that cost me $20. For reference, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan went for $18 a piece. I also added the elite arm of Peralta. In the reserve rounds I added two potential closers in Wilson and Valverde. If one of those guys becomes a closer and gives me, say, 15 saves this year, I’m in great shape and I won’t have to blow a third of my FAAB budget chasing saves.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I like the club. I’ve got Youkilis, Zobrist, Swisher for some positional flexibility. I’ve got speed across the board (Stubbs might be my only 30 SB option, but look at all the guys with 15 SB potential). I’ve also got a solid group of potential 15-25 homer guys. The batting average won’t be great, but the counting numbers should be solid.

The pitchers I like as well. Power arms in the pen (Peralta is a power arm out of the pen to augment my two closing options (don’t forget I also took shots on free agents Valverde/Wilson in the reserve rounds). Shields/Wilson are a solid 1-2 punch. Niemann/Blanton are boring but they can be key pieces in league specific setups. Archer is a young kid with a luminous future. He could open the year in the Rays’ rotation, but even if he doesn’t he will be up at some point. Jimenez improves just a little bit, or Pineda is back to full strength in the second half…

So, this team looks better than my entry last season. Does that mean it will do better or worse when the final numbers are tallied?

Click here for a review of the entire AL LABR DRAFT.

By Ray Flowers

Review: FSTA League

I stand accountable. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. First up, the FSTA Experts League.

To review my team click on this link: Vegas, BaseballGuys FSTA Team

And if you want to see the results of the draft, click on the FSTA DRAFT link.

A note. This draft was held in January. That created a lot of issues, chief amongst them the fact that Ryan Braun was thought to be suspended for 50 games at the time of the draft (he went in the 4th round to Chris Liss). There was also the little issue of bullpens simply not being setup at the time of the draft (the draft is so early to help people prepare for the season, but in holding it so early there are a ton of issues that crop up).

To my team.

Yadier Molina and Ryan Doumit were rockstars at catcher. Tremendous duo in a 2-catcher league. Better than anyone else’s.

First base was my downfall. Carlos Pena had his worse full season (he hit flipping .197 with 19 homers and 61 RBIs. He had gone deep at least 28 times with 80 RBIs each of the previous five seasons) and Derrek Lee never played (remember, the draft was in January).

Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips weren’t great, but they were certainly solid at second and middle infield.

Evan Longoria, my first round pick, missed half the season. Last year I won the league with Carl Crawford as my first round pick. I couldn’t pull off the trick again with my first round pick crapping out. My two late grabs to help out at the hot corner, Mat Gamel and Ian Stewart, were just awful.

Yunel Escobar was very solid three of the last four years. Oops. Make if three of five years now as he was awful in 2012 as he hit .253 with 51 RBIs and 58 runs scored. He’s a career .282 hitter.

Matt Holliday did what he always does – produce. Michael Bourn slowed late in the year, but he was still at borderline top-50 performer overall. Shane Victorino, like so many others on this squad, had his worst effort (.255-11-55-72-39). Martin Prado qualified in the infield and outfield and was a dynamic 4th OF with a .301-10-70-81-17. That’s a great season. I was once again bit by the early draft. I added Chris Heisey as my 5th outfielder as he appeared to have a shot to hit 25+ homers in a full-time role with the Reds. Literally days later the Reds signed Ryan Ludwick. We know how that turned out. Matt Joyce started strong but was hurt and ultimately faded in the second half. Oh, and that Franklin Gutierrez — always hurt.

The pitching…

Ricky Romero. I don’t need to say anything there other than just list his name. You know what I mean. C.J. Wilson started out fantastically before an elbow injured killed him in the second half (he’ll need surgery). Brandon Morrow was off to a dominating pace but was felled by an oblique issue. Wandy Rodriguez was, Wandy Rodriguez. Sergio Santos below his arm out. Scott Baker blew his arm out. Tim Stauffer didn’t blow his arm out, but he threw all of five innings on the year. Chris Perez was aces. Roy Oswalt was awful (remember, this draft was in January and we all thought he was going to be pitching in the first week of the season). Tyler Clippard was fantastic. Javy Guerra ended the year with a whimper, and Brandon Lyon never did close all year. Not that it would have mattered with the Astros.

CONGRATS: Steve Gardner/Howard Kamen who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 11/13 teams. I failed miserably to repeat as the league champion that I was in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

Last night, live on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we had another hosts draft in which I got to pit my wits against some of the industry leaders in a 12 team, mixed league snake draft. Let’s see how I did.  The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted in the fantasy baseball draft.

C: Kurt Suzuki (16), John Buck (26)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (4)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (2)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (3)
SS: Derek Jeter (12)
MI/CI: Yunel Escobar (18), Billy Butler (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (1), Carl Crawford (5), Shane Victorino (6), Brett Gardner (8), Carlos Lee (20)
UT: Mark Reynolds (11)

SP: James Shields (9), Ricky Romero (10), Brandon Morrow (13), Max Scherzer (15)

RP: Sergio Santos (14), Kenley Jansen (17), Brett Myers (19), Matt Capps (21), Aroldis Chapman (23)

BENCH: Denard Span (22), Ricky Nolasco (24), Erik Bedard (25), Ian Stewart (27), Brian Roberts (28)

* I wanted to roster Nick Hundley or Chris Iannetta as my second catcher, but both were taken the round I was going to add them. I then thought I’d take Carlos Ruiz, but he too was taken so I just waited to add Buck. If you can fill bench spots before you have to fill your starting lineup, you might consider a similar strategy.

* I was certainly tempted to take Joey Votto with my first pick, but two things played into my choice of CarGo. (1) I like the five category skills of Gonzalez a wee bit better. (2) Yahoo, which is the service we held the draft on, pretty much qualifies everyone in the game as a first or third baseman, so I felt comfortable passing on the elite first baseman.

* Speaking of the corners, look at the lineup I rostered. Youkilis can play first or third, ditto with Reynolds, an even Butler qualifies at first in this set up too (so does Lee). People might look at Butler in the 7th round and think that’s too early to take him, but as a first base eligible player he’s of real interest. To compare, Eric Hosmer hit .293 with 19 homers and 78 RBI last year in 523 at-bats while Butler hit .291 with 19 homers and 95 RBI in 597 at-bats. Plus, Butler is a rock of consistency.

* Jeter is old, but I don’t doubt that he’ll hit at least .280 with 15 steals and 80 runs scored – at a minimum. Escobar in the 18th round was also a solid add at middle infielder. Speaking of middle infielders, why in the hell did I take Brian Roberts in the 28th round? Did my computer do on auto-draft? Did I drink too many Paradise Punch’s and think it was 2007? You know how I always preach about knowing your league rules? This is a perfect example. Roberts will start the year on the DL, so if he’s taking up a bench spot in a 12 team mixed league it’s pretty tough to justify his inclusion on your roster. However, this league has DL spots. I drafted Roberts, immediately placed him on the DL after the draft (I was able to add Chad Billingsley). In essence, I’ll get a player I was targeting with my last pick in the draft anyway, an I’ll have Roberts for free cause he isn’t impacting my active roster. If/when Roberts plays, he’ll be effective. It’s just a matter of when that will occur.

* I waited on pitching, but so did everyone else to a certain degree. That resulted in a large number of solid starting pitchers being available late (Nolasco, Bedard types). However, people went hot and heavy on relievers, so I just waited that out. In the end, I’ve got three closers – Santos, Myers, Capps – though I really only like the first one. Still, saves are saves, so I’ll pay the price in the ratio cats to get them from Capps and Myers. I also added Chapman on the off chance that the Reds decide to give him some 9th inning work which is certainly possible (especially after Dusty Baker said the other day that he isn’t locked into using Sean Marshall exclusively in the 9th). As for my starters, see what I say about waiting on arms? Shields, Romero, Morrow and Scherzer all have the talent to win 15 games with at least 175 Ks. I wanted to take Morrow in the 11th but showed patience and got him two rounds later. I also wanted Scherzer in the 13th but was able to get him two round later as well.

So there is the squad. What do you think? Oh, by the way, for the full draft results click on the link to SiriusXM Experts Draft.

To sign up for fantasy baseball, give Fleaflicker a look.

By Ray Flowers

Tout Wars: A Review

 I was in New York over the weekend for Tout Wars. Looking to redeem myself after my LABR experience, I thought I would change my approach with Tout. The plan? Draft a good team, something that somewhat eluded me in Arizona.

After wading slowly into the mix in LABR, I decided to be a bit more aggressive this time out (probably a good idea I think we would all agree). In this 15 team mixed league I was able to roster a solid group of bats, but I really love my power pitching. Before I get emails from all of you saying ‘but Ray, you always say don’t draft pitching early’ you have to realize two things. (1) Things are different at an auction. The amount of control that you have is exponentially greater so you can have a couple of “aces” an not necessarily miss out on bats. If you take an SP in the 2nd round in a snake-draft you miss out on a big time hitter. In an auction there are no rounds to worry about so you can add Roy Halladay and still get Prince Fielder if you want instead of just being able to get either/or in the second round of an snake draft. (2) If there is value present, I’m going to jump into the mix. Check out the names that I was able to roster for my staff:

Cliff Lee ($26), Felix Hernandez ($23), John Danks ($3), Chad Billingsley ($3), Ricky Nolasco ($3), Sergio Santos ($13), Kenley Jansen ($6), Sergio Romo ($4) and Tyler Clippard ($3)

I know, I know, you’re saying to yourself ‘Ray, when is the love affair with Billingsley and Nolasco going to end?’ My response is that I’m a glutton for punishment. Billingsley should offer a moderate bounce back from last season, an I always, an I mean every season, point out how Nolasco has great skills even if he’s rarely able to put things together. You also read about Danks in his Player Profile, right? He’s a nice rebound candidate since he actually pitched better last year than he did in 2010. As for the bullpen arms, I have to say I’m pretty darn excited about the group. Jansen is one of the best arms in the game, and Santos was great as a first year closer last year. In San Francisco Brian Wilson doesn’t appear to be 100 percent, while Drew Storen is dealing with some health issues of his own in Washington. It wouldn’t take a whole hell of a lot for Clippard and Romo to pick up at least a few saves. For good measure, I also added James McDonald in the reserve rounds, along with David Robertson. McDonald has a great arm and showed some nice signs of growth last year with the Pirates. Robertson continues to impress after injuring his foot, and he’ll slide in well with my stable of power arms out of the pen.

On offense, a moderate approach was key. Here’s what I ended up with:

C: Kurt Suzuki ($7), John Buck (4)
1B: Carlos Lee (8)
2B: Chase Utley (6)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (23)
SS: Derek Jeter (13)
MI/CI: Dustin Ackley (8) Gaby Sanchez (12)
OF: B.J. Upton (27) Nelson Cruz (20), Carl Crawford (18), Alex Rios (13), Denard Span (2)
UT: Danny Espinosa (8)

Watch me lock down Dustin Ackley in the bidding.

Remember, this is a 15 team league, so guys like Lee and Sanchez at first and corner infield, while not even remotely exciting, provide plenty of counting stat production. You’ll notice Utley as my “starter” at second, and you’re likely thinking – huh? But for $6, and he was tossed out there relatively early in the draft, I felt like it was a risk worth taking. I felt even better about it when I was able to roster Dustin Ackley and Danny Espinosa for a combined $16 to handle second and middle infield if Utley is a waste. I mean, Jemile Weeks went for $16 by his lonesome. I like Weeks’ speed, but I’d certainly rather have Ackley and Espinosa for the same cost. Jeter is boring, but he was the last shortstop I trusted on the board other than Alexei Ramirez. The White Sox shortstop was brought up a couple of players after Jeter and he went for $17. Cruz and Crawford in the outfield are health risk, but for $38? There were probably leagues last year where Crawford went for that by his lonesome. I love B.J. Upton. Here’s why. I’m also a big fan of Alex Rios, see his Player Profile, and thought $13 was just right for his services (I have him at that cost in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide). Span may not excite you, but if he can stay healthy hitting atop the Twins order, then he could be a strong, cheap, option for my club. For support in the reserve round I added Aubrey Huff and Danny Valencia. Rather boring no doubt, but if they knock in 80 runs while not killing my average, I won’t mind too much.

I’d like to thank our gracious host, SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, for putting on a great event this past weekend (here’s a picture of me in action). The studio looked amazing, right across the street from Radio City Music Hall, and Howard Stern’s studio was right next door (I still can’t believe they pay a guy $100 million a year to talk  about nude ladies and sex. I’d do that for a hundredth of that. Heck, I might do it for free).

Gotta say, I wasn’t overly impressed by NYC. I hadn’t been there since I was 16 so I was looking forward to a big bash of late night shenanigans. While we did get into some trouble, the fact that we wandered around New York at 3 AM and couldn’t find a place to get something to eat – simply amazing. Isn’t there supposed to be a late night pizza place open all night on every corner?

 Click here for a review of all the selections in the Mixed Tout Wars League.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers

Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.

* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

The league average in 2011 was 0.45.

Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.

0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.

0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.

0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.

0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.

0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.

0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.

0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.

0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.

0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.

0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.

0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.

0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.

Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.

1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.

1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.

1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.

1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.

1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.

0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.

0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.

0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.

0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.

0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.

0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.

0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).

0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.

0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.

0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. The participants for this years event are as follows:

Doug Anderson, RotoExperts
Howard Bender, Fangraphs
Mark Chamberlain, Baseball Sharks
Yours Truly
Steve Gardner, USA Today
Joe Hamrahi, Baseball Prospectus
Tim Heaney, KFFL
Bill Macey, Baseball HQ
Nicholas Minnix, KFFL
Jeff Paur, RTSports
Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times
Pasko Varnica, Mastersball

*For full bios on all 12 of the participants click on this link to K-BAD Bios.

One of the unique aspects of this draft is that the participants are asked to record their thoughts as they work through the slow draft (it’s done over days while all of us pound out our daily work). As a result, KFFL presents a unique look into the mind of an expert to expose “experts” thoughts and decision making process at the time each of the selections are made. For the full 28 round analysis of the draft, from all the experts, simply click on the link to K-Bad Round Analysis.

Since I’m sure you’re all riveted as to how my team came together, I thought I would reproduce the results of my squad in a couple of articles here at BaseballGuys. So without further ado, here is how the draft played out for me.

Round 1: Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols was a strong consideration, as was Troy Tulowitzki, but ultimately I decided on Cabrera for three reasons: the addition of Prince Fielder, the fact that Cabrera can hit .340, and the soon to be third base eligibility he will pick up.

Round 2: Matt Holliday
Overlooked this year by some, I have little doubt he’ll return to something like a .300-25-100 line in St. Louis even with Albert Pujols out of the mix. Was really hoping that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me at this spot, but missed out on him by a few picks.

Round 3: Kevin Youkilis
Really didn’t love this pick. Was tempted to go with another outfielder, but settled for the stability that Youkilis should bring. Plus, everyone is likely to go heavy on third base, so the next time I pick I’ll be hard pressed to find a comparable talent to Youkilis.

Round 4: B.J. Upton
I was hoping that Ben Zobrist would make it back to me. Obviously he didn’t. I considered Michael Bourn but went with the better all-around performer in Upton. With Cabrera/Youkilis/Holliday I should be able to handle Upton’s poor average.

Round 5: Felix Hernandez
I don’t usually go for pitching early, but I’d bet the 5th and 6th rounds are going to be filled with starters being grabbed. There’s nothing wrong with grabbing a guy like Hernandez that should give me 200 Ks and 220-innings of elite work as my staff anchor. Also considered Zack Greinke.

Round 6: Howie Kendrick
A perennial option to hit .300, he’s also likely to go 10/10, possibly even 15/15. I was tempted to take Weeks, but look at Week’s games played mark – an average of just 107 games a season the past five years. Give me Kendrick who also has OF eligibility.

Round 7: Shane Victorino
Solid, consistent, across the board producer. That’s Shane Victorino. I was tempted by Shin-Soo Choo here, but I’m worried about Choo returning to .300, and I don’t know if he’s going to swipe 20 bases anymore either. Shane might be slightly boring to some, but he’s a fantastic 3rd outfielder.

Round 8: Mark Reynolds
People might laugh at this selection, but we all know that third base starts to thin out pretty quickly, and Reynolds covers me at first base as well. His average is woeful, but he is one of only five men to have 30 homers, 85 RBI and 75 runs scored each of the past three years.

Round 9: Derek Jeter
Boring? Yes. Old? Yes. Declining skill set? Yes. So why take him? After the selection of Reynolds with my last pick, I need the .290 average that Jeter should bring. There are more exciting options left at shortstop, but I’m looking for some average stability.

Round 10: Ricky Romero
It’s the time in the draft to start building my pitching staff. Romero may not be elite, but he’ll fit in nicely behind King Felix as I have two power sinking fastball types. Considered going closer, but I’ll wait there.

Round 11: Josh Beckett
I considered Matt Garza and Brandon Morrow here. Garza is as consistent as they come, and Morrow has massive upside, but I split the difference and grabbed Beckett.

Round 12: Brandon Morrow
There might be safer pitchers left on the board, but there are none with 250 K potential. If he keeps the walks down again he could shave a run off his ERA.

Round 13: Dustin Ackley
I was tempted to go with a fourth outfielder here and if I didn’t already have three third base eligible guys (Reynolds, Youkilis and Cabrera) I’d have taken Martin Prado.

Round 14: Sergio Santos
The run on closers commenced, and I jumped in the mix. Was tempted to an address my catcher’s spot which is open, but I went with that huge arm of Santos.

In PART II I’ll continue my look at the selections I made before giving an overall wrap up.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 6th, 2011

Things are really heating up at the Winter Meetings, and it appears that the Marlins are plenty serious about being the story to emerge from the festivities. But before I get to that, we had a couple of deals take place in the last 24 hours as pitchers are the target of seemingly every team.

Sergio Santos was an excellent bullpen arm for the White Sox last year. After every other White Sox bullpen arm was seemingly given a shot to handle 9th ining duties, Santos stepped up and solidified the role on his way to 30 saves in 36 chances. He walks too many batters, 4.12 per nine innings last year, but it’s easy to forgive that when you look over at the K/9 column and see 13.07. Santos signed a deal with the White Sox that will pay him only $8.25 million the next three years, though there are three other team options after that for $6 million, $8 million and $8.75 million (basically his team has him under control for 6-years at a cost of about $31 million). That “cheap” cost made him an excellent option to deal for the White Sox, and they did just that Tuesday sending him to the Blue Jays for minor leaguer Nestor Molina (there is no truth to the rumor that he is related to Nestor The Long Eared Christmas Donkey). White Sox fans will be furious at this deal since Molina is likely a couple of years away from being a major player, but after a year at Single and Double-A in which he posted a 12-3 record, 2.21 ERA 10.22 K/9 an a stupendous 9.25 K/BB mark, the future is bright for the  22 year old righty.

Kevin Slowey is someone I’ve long been in the corner of (check out the Player Profile I wrote back on March 28th, 2011). However, two issues have precluded him from reaching the heights that I think he can. (1) The guy just can’t stay healthy. In two of the last three seasons he’s failed to reach 100-innings. (2) He gives up way too many fly balls (48 percent of batted balls in his career), and they leave the yard at a near crippling rate (1.42 homers per nine innings). Therefore, the Rockies move to deal for him makes little sense to me. The Rockies think he can be a solid #4 or #5 starter, but given the enviornment in Colorado Slowey seems like a horrible addition given his long ball woes.

Aaron Harang had a decent season with the Padres going 14-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. However, the San Diego born righty, who also went to San Diego State, wasn’t able to work out a deal with the Padres. No matter, He’ll end up merely needing to rent a U-Haul truck to move his stuff to Los Angeles after he agreed to a 2-year deal with the Dodgers ($12 million).

Albert Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and the Marlins and the Cardinals are the two teams bidding most heavily for his services. Reports are circulating, including one by Bob Nightingale, that the Marlins have extended an offer to Pujols worth more than $200 million. The Cardinals are still in the mix, but it’s growing more likely by the minute that Pujols’ decision won’t have to be about one team outspending the other, it will be about where he wants to play for the next decade.

Andrew Bailey is on the market, though the Athletics asking price is apparently so high that Bailey may as well not be available. So far it seems like one of those situation where the A’s are saying ‘if you overpay we’ll give him to you’ but few teams seems willing to meet the exorbinant price the A’s are asking for in return for their often dominating closer who is under their control through 2014.

Jimmy Rollins was thought to be almost as good as gone from the Phillies 36 hours ago. There is now some growing optimism that he could return, though it still seems like the club is unwilling to go 5-years on a deal like Rollins wants. If the Phils are unable to come to an agreement they will look to add Aramis Ramirez while at the same time moving Placido Polanco to free up some cash. If Rollins returns, look for the Phils to go with Polanco as their third baseman and pass on Ramirez.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: October6, 2011

Relief Pitcher Review

(1) Jose Valverde 49-for-49 in saves.

(2) Craig Kimbrel dominates before late season letdown.

(3) Kenley Jansen historically good when it comes to strikeouts.

(4) Look how many closers came out of nowhere in 20211: Jordan Walden, Sergio Santos, Kyle Farnsworth, Fernando Salas, Javy Guerra, Mark Melancon.

By Ray Flowers