Draft Day Challenge, May 9

I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Thursday.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter. @MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Joe Mauer
2. Carlos Ruiz

Mauer is always a good play, period. When he sees John Lackey on the hill he becomes an elite play. Mauer is 10-for-23 (.435) with a couple of big flies against the righty.

Ruiz hasn’t exactly started out on fire since he returned from his PED suspension, and he faces Patrick Corbin who has been nails this season. Still, Ruiz has always had success against lefties (.801 career OPS) and he’s also shown a nice power stroke against lefties with 16 homers and 76 RBIs over 573 at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. James Loney
2. Brandon Belt

It’s time to give Loney some props for what has been a phenomenal start to his 2013 season. Not only is he batting .417 the past week but he’s hitting .385 on the season (who’s talking about that?). He’s only 2-for-9 against R.A. Dickey but the knuckleballer has allowed 14 runs over his last 19 innings while losing 3-straight games.

Belt has been in and out of the lineup, and he’s not exactly been impressive when on the field. So why suggest starting him Thursday? He faces Julio Teheran who has allowed batters to hit .333 off him this season pushing his career mark in 54.1 innings up to .301.

SECOND BASE
1. Dan Uggla
2. Daniel Murphy

Uggla is warming up at the dish (6-game hitting streak including three homers) and he faces Ryan Vogelsong who hasn’t exactly been impressive this season (for more on Vogelsong see Mound Mayhem).

Murphy faces lefty Jeff Locke. Murphy likes to face lefties. He’s batting .327 against them this year, he hit .283 against them last year, and for his career he’s hit .281 with eight homers and 63 RBIs over the course of 427 at-bats.

THIRD BASE
1. Martin Prado
2. Miguel Tejada

Prado has been up and down this season (he’s hitting a mere .227 on the year though he does have 19 runs scored in 33 games). He hasn’t exactly hammered Cole Hamels but he has produced 15 hits while striking out only five times in 55 at-bats.

Two veterans square off when Tejada faces Freddy Garcia. In 58 previous at-bats Tejada has hit .310 with 13 RBIs. He’s also hit well this season with seven hits in 19 at-bats (.368).

SHORTSTOP
1. Maicer Izturis
2. Stephen Drew

Izturis has three hits in seven at-bats against Mr. Price of the Rays. Izturis has also hit well the past week with a .286 mark over his last 21 at-bats.

Drew is finally locked in at the dish, and it’s been a while since we could say that (he’s hit .381 with a homer and five RBIs the past week). He’s had some moderate success against Mr. Correia with a .250 average, one homer and six RBIs, but I just feel good about the matchup. Sue me.

OUTFIELD
1. Shane Victorino
2. Jose Bautista

Normally Kevin Correia gets beaten up by a lot of folks. He’s been impressive this season with a 2.83 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for the Twins but look for Victorino to have some success given that he’s 6-for-14, a .429 average, with a homer and six RBIs.

Bautista hasn’t looked “right” for a large portion of the 2013 season, but that doesn’t mean you should avoid him in what seems like a really tough matchup on paper. Bautista has hit .355 with four homers and seven RBIs in 31 at-bats against David Price who hasn’t looked like himself for much of 2013 either.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. David Price
3. Jason Vargas
4. Doug Fister

Guthrie faces his old team, the Orioles, and he’s dominated the players currently on the roster holding them to a .167 average and .460 OPS over 48 at-bats. With a 2.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season he seems like the proverbial must-start.

Look past the 6.25 ERA and 1.48 WHIP of Price this season and you will note that there is still a lot going on there that is positive. Remove Mr. Bautista from current Jays players and you will find that Price has allowed just two homers in 152 at-bats to the rest of the club and that the rest of the unit is hitting just .230 against him as he has gone 12-2 with a 2.29 ERA against the Jays.

Vargas has held current Astros batters to two hits in 27 at-bats. He also tossed a nine inning shutout in his last outing and has dropped his ERA on the year down to 3.72.

And finally for those looking at early games, Fister is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season. He faces the Nationals on the road, and batters have hit just .234 against him on the road this season.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

Mock Draft: Talking Pitching Early

In fantasy baseball circles I’m known as the ‘anti-pitcher’ guy. I tell people all the time that in re-draft leagues there is no reason to take a pitcher at the top of a draft, and I practice what I preach (see how my staff turned out in the recent FSTA Experts Draft where I waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler). I know though that many others disagree with that line of thought. So for the sake of thoroughness and seeing both sides of the coin, I decided to flip my traditional script on its ear and go pitching early in a draft. Not only did I go pitching early, I went bonkers with pitching early.

I was invited by Cory Schwartz of MLB.com to participate in a 15 team mixed league (23 rounds with 14 hitters and nine pitchers, but no bench). I drew the 13th pick in the draft and thought, what the hell, I’m taking a hurler in the first round to see how my team would turn out since I know so many of you are drafting hurlers in the first round. I took Clayton Kershaw. When my second turn came up, pick #18 overall, guess which dominating righty was still available? If you said Justin Verlander you are correct. If you said that I did the unthinkable and took Verlander as well… you’d be right again. Not only did I blow past my ‘never take a pitcher in the first round’ strategy, I multiplied the pitching love by grabbing the top two arms in the game with my first two selections. How did my team turn out? Let’s take a look.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

C: Matt Wieters (6th round), John Jaso (17)
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (4)
2B: Marco Scutaro (20)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (5)
SS: Alcides Escobar (11)
MI: Josh Rutledge (12)
CI: Adam LaRoche (14)
OF: Jay Bruce (3), Nelson Cruz (7), Carl Crawford (8), Shane Victorino (9), Nick Markakis (10)
UT: Brett Gardner (16)

STARTING PITCHERS: Clayton Kershaw (1), Justin Verlander (2), Tim Hudson (15), James McDonald (18), Wandy Rodriguez (19)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Jason Grilli (13), Sean Marshall (21), David Robertson (22), Bobby Parnell (23)

I certainly went as big as one could in the first two rounds on the hill, but then I didn’t take another arm until the 13th round, and my third starter didn’t come until the 15th (I would bet many who do go big early on pitching then sit back and wait to fill out their staff with the thought being that they got a stud or two early so now they can afford to wait). This was only a 23 round draft, there were no bench rounds, so you can be assured that at least two, possibly three, of my bench spots would have been devoted to starting pitchers to round out the group. Still, with the two best arms in baseball at the top, a strong ratio guy (Hudson), a potential 180 K guy (McDonald), and a cheap/solid arm (Wandy), I like this group given the constraints I was working under.

I also love my bullpen arms. You might be saying to yourself ‘but Ray you only have one closer,’ and that’s fair, but look at those four arms. That quartet of relievers should be good for 10 strikeouts per nine innings. They are also likely to flat out kill it in ERA and WHIP. In fact, that foursome could very easily dust both Kershaw and Verlander in ERA, WHIP, K/9… and they have the chance to pick up a few saves as well. Basically, if everything goes according to plan, I’ll win Ks, ERA and WHIP. Wins, should be solid enough, and with an injury or poor performance here or there I could get some lucky saves love as well. Remember, only 23 round in this draft, so there would be plenty of time to add more depth to a unit that is filled with power arms in the reserve rounds.

So the staff is impressive. What about the offense, is it offensive like stinky cheese?

My duo at catcher is strong. In a 15 team league to get a duo that is capable of doing the things of Wieters and Jason – gotta like that.

A-Gone is about as good a bet to go .300 with 100 RBIs as any first baseman in baseball not named Pujols or Votto. Sandoval is a potential .300-25 guy at the other corner if he can avoid that third helping of plantains at dinner (his career bests would leave him with a .330-25-90 line). Up the middle I’ve got solid but boring Scutaro. He’s not likely to blow blast past .300 this year (see his Player Profile). Escobar is a solid add for the speed, but there are some questions about his overall game (see his Player Profile). At corner infield LaRoche is boring but does he ever put up numbers in the counting categories. Rutledge doesn’t have a big league season under his belt, but there’s 15/15 potential there.

The outfield is solid. I’ve got Bruce and Cruz for some pop, and then went all-around game with Crawford and Victorino. Questions abound about what Crawford has left to give, and if Victorino can hang on for another season (see his Player Profile), but if they are both healthy there no disputing that the results could potential lead to a bounty of offense. Markakis isn’t a big name, but since most of the big names went off the board while I was grabbing my two arms, he was a strong fallback play for my squad. Ditto on Gardner who people forget averaged 48 steals and 92 runs scored in 2010-11.

So to wrap it up. The offense has solid speed (Gardner, Escobar, Victorino and Crawford). There’s some decent pop but nothing over the top. I had to take chances on talent that was coming back from injury as the depressed value allowed the fellas to be available for me to roster well later than they would be if they were coming off a healthy 2012 (Sandoval, Crawford, Markakis, Gardner). If that foursome of players all play 150 games then this offense will be pretty decent for a 15 team league.

Is it a perfect team? No sir. Is it a solid enough team that I could compete with it? I think the answer is yes. However, there are certain health risks on offense, and how those players perform in 2013 will likely determine how this team will ultimately finish after I spent my top two picks on the best lefty-righty duo anyone in the fantasy game could put together in 2013..

For the full results click on the link to MLB.com Draft.

MLB.com_SlowDraft-RESULTS

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Shane Victorino

I’ve always been a fan of the Flyin’ Hawaiian. Shane Victorino has long been one of those players who doesn’t hurt you in any of the five fantasy categories. He’s also one of the rare players that usually offers something positive in each of the five categories. The Red Sox realized how valuable a performer that Victorino is as they lavished on him a three year deal worth $39 million to be an everyday member of their club. Coming off his worst full season we have to assess whether or not it’s time to change our view of a player that is always cheaper on draft day than he should be.

In a season split between the Phillies and Dodgers, Victorino wasn’t up to his normal standards. He hit .255, a career worst. His total of 11 homers was a three year low and just one above his full season low. His total of 55 RBIs was a five year low. His total of 72 runs scored was a six year low. Does his total of 39 steals, a career best, offset the negative? Not even close, but at least it helped to keep his season from falling into the fantasy abyss. Why the struggles from the only player in baseball who has hit 10 homers, with 55 RBIs, 70 runs scored and 19 steals each of the past five years?

This is the second time in three years that Victorino has hit in the .250′s, and that’s a concern. The career .275 hitter batted at least .281 from 2006-09, but the last three years have seen him hit .259, .279 and .255. We often speak of rolling three year trends helping to set baselines, so perhaps we should admit to ourselves that Victorino may only be a hit every four at-bat kinda guy as a 32 year old (Nov. 30th). After all, Shane has failed to reach his career average of 18.5 percent in the line drive rate the past three years (17.4, 15.8 and 17.8 percent). He’s also failed to reach his .296 career BABIP the last three years (.273, .292 and .278). None of that speaks to a substantial batting average turnaround for Victorino in ’13.

We can pretty much gloss over the homer/RBI discussion. It’s just not Victorino’s game, even if he offers a little bit of something each year.

Running though is something that Victorino does, and does well. In two of the last three years he’s stolen at least 34 bases, and he’s hit that mark in four of the last six years (the two times he missed he swiped 25 and 19 bases). He’s going to run. Not just that, he’s going to be very successful at it as he has been caught just 23 times the past four years while stealing 117 bases (an 84 percent success rate). What makes his total last season even more impressive is that he reached his career best of 39 thefts despite a .321 OBP, .020 points below his career mark and his worst total since 2005. Part of the reason he was able to mount a high total was due to the fact that he was able to record 640 plate appearances for just the third time, but still gotta give him props for the theft total (will the Red Sox allow him to run as much? A fair question).

Something that should be pointed out. Having interviewed former GM Steve Phillips on The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (my daily radio show on Sirius210 and XM87), I’m still struck by one of the things he related during the visit. He said he respects Victorino for his all out style of play, but he’s also a bit concerned about it. Victorino grinds through at-bats and games very well, but that style of play eventually wears you down. It also means that when the player is struggling he works even harder to get out of it. Sometimes that extra effort works, but at other times it leads to a lengthening of the slump. When dealt to the Dodgers he hit .245 as he tried to prove his worth. Might he do the same thing with his new team in Boston – try too hard with the results not being the level of production we’ve come to expect?

When I look at Victorino I still think of him as a strong 4th outfielder in mixed leagues. He continues to run, and that will always help him maintain his value, and he still offers enough of an all-around game that no one should be disappointed if he ends up on their squad, even if you aren’t going to want to pull back on a twelve pack of Tecate, which I like more than Corona, to celebrate.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Outfield

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

2012 OUTFIELDERS Top-20

1 Ryan Braun
2 Matt Kemp
3 Carlos Gonzalez
4 Justin Upton
5 Jacoby Ellsbury
6 Andrew McCutchen
7 Matt Holliday
8 Michael Bourn
9 Curtis Granderson
10 Hunter Pence
11 B.J. Upton
12 Ginacarlo Stanton
13 Shane Victorino
14 Nelson Cruz
15 Josh Hamilton
16 Adam Jones
17 Jay Bruce
18 Shin-Soo Choo
19 Brett Gardner
20 Jayson Werth

Braun was my #1 player heading into the year. He may have been edged out by Mike Trout for the honor of the best player in fantasy baseball, but Braun was simply amazing and just as good as he was in his MVP effort of ’11.

2011: .332-33-111-109-33
2012: .319-41-112-18-30

Kemp hit .303 with 23 bombs, 69 RBIs, 74 runs scored and nine thefts in a tremendous letdown season. Still, his pace for 160 games would have led to an effort of .303-35-104-112-14. If he did that, would you have complained?

CarGo produced a third straight 20/20 effort though he also had three year lows in homers (22), RBI (85), runs (.89) and OPS (.881). All things considered though, he was still an elite fantasy performer.

J. Upton was terrible. Just ask one of his owners. Justin had only 17 homers and 67 RBIs a year after 31 and 88. But was he really as bad as you thought? Not even close despite the popular perception. Upton hit .280, two points better than his career mark, stole 18 bases (he averaged 20 the previous three years), and scored a career best 107 runs, the second highest total in the NL. So much for a terrible season.

Ellsbury appeared in 74 games, the second time in three years that he didn’t make it out onto the field for half the Red Sox games. The talent is undeniable, but his inability to stay healthy is a huge concern, as is the fact that he hit just four homers in 303 at-bats. Remember, he had 32 of his career total of 56 homers in just 660 at-bats in 2011 meaning he has 24 homers in his other 1,675 ABs.

McCutchen dominated as every talent evaluator in the game thought he could. Andrew went 30/20 and just missed out on also going 100-100 as he had 96 RBIs and 107 runs scored. Toss in a .327 batting and you have a top-5 fantasy campaign.

Holliday was supposed to struggle without Albert Pujols, remember? Uh, no. Holliday hit .295 with 27 homers, 102 RBIs and 95 runs scored for the Cards.

Bourn was pathetic at the dish hitting a mere .225 over his final 70 games, but in summation his season was an unqualified success as he hit .274 (career .272) with a career best nine homers and 57 RBIs. Toss in 96 runs (one off his career best) and 42 steals, and he had another elite fantasy season.

Granderson, somewhat surprisingly, hit 43 homers with 106 RBIs and 102 runs scored giving him 2-straight years of 40-100-100. However, he also failed to hit .250 for the third time in four years, and his maddening stolen base trend continued. Here are his steals totals since 2007: 26, 12, 20, 12, 25 and 10.

Pence hit a career worst .253 with a career-low five steals. The good? He hit 24 homers with 104 RBIs, the second number being a career best. A solid though somewhat disappointing effort.

B.J. Upton started the ball rolling late because of injury, but by the end of the season he was a mere two bombs short of his first 30/30 effort. Upton only hit .246, but this was the 5th straight 30 steal effort and a second straight 20/30 performance. He also recorded 79 runs for the 6th straight year.

Stanton flashed his unsurpassed power with 37 homers and 86 RBIs in just 123 games played. What was really surprising to see was the .290 batting average, a number that he will find it hard to replicate given his approach at the plate (143 Ks just 46 walks in those 123 games).

Victorino struggled for large portions of the year and his .255 batting average was a major disappointment as were his 5-year low in RBIs (55) and his 6-year low in runs (72). At least he stole 39 bags, a career best.

Cruz appeared in 159 games, a shocking total for a player who had never taken the field 130 times. Amazingly, his per at-bat numbers were four years worsts as he hit 24 homers with 90 RBIs on the year. Those are solid numbers, but more was expected from him if he was healthy able to play 150+ games. He also isn’t running anymore with eight steals in 2012 and 17 the past two years (he stole 37 bases in 2009-10).

Hamilton had a monstrous season batting .285 with 43 dingers, 128 RBIs and 103 runs scored. For the most part he kept himself out of trouble, and he even managed to play 148 games, a four year high. An effort like this was always possible, but he was as low as he was in my rankings because of the constant off the field concerns and his inability to stay healthy making him a sizable risk. For one year those concerns disappeared.

Jones hit 16 homers in the first 51 games before slowing down the rest of the way to end the year with 32 big flies, a career best. He also stole 16 bases and scored 103 times, more career bests, as was his .287 average (by three points). Add in 82 RBIs and you’ve got yourself one hell of a campaign.

Bruce was very good, but far from the breakout star many predicted. Still, his yearly improvement is impressive and historic.

2008: 21 homers, 52 RBIs
2009: 22 homers, 58 RBIs
2010: 25 homers, 70 RBIs
2011: 32 homers, 97 RBIs
2012: 34 homers, 99 RBIs

Choo didn’t make it all the way back to his 2009-10 heyday, but he was damn impressive (.283-16-67-88-21). His season really took off when he was inserted into the leadoff spot (.310/.389/.493 in 99 games).

Gardner’s elbow literally had him on the edge of a return like six times. In the end he hit .323 with two steals in 16 games after swiping 96 bases with 185 runs scored in 2010-11. A massive letdown.

Werth hit .300 with a .387 OBP, tremendous numbers, but he only appeared in 81 games with five homers, eight steals and 31 RBIs. Just not what his owners, or the Nationals, were hoping for.

Hit: Alex Rios (#23), Dexter Fowler (#33)
I highlighted Rios as the best option outside the top-20 at the position, and for that I drew derision from many fantasy circles. I had the last laugh though as he hit .304 with 25 homers, 91 RBIs, 93 runs scored and 23 steals. Efforts like his win fantasy championships. Fowler was another player that people shied away from, and while his effort wasn’t as good as that of Rios it was still plenty helpful (.300-13-53-72-12 in just 454 at-bats).

Miss: Josh Hamilton, Hunter Pence
Misses due to injury: Ellsbury, Gardner, Werth, Carl Crawford (#21)

By Ray Flowers

Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

The review of my season in the abyss continues as I’ll take a look today at the Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio Hosts’ League club that I put together.

Kurt Suzuki and John Buck were total failures. In the piece I just linked to above I mentioned how close I was to getting Carlos Ruiz. Oh well.

Kevin Youkilis (.235-19-60-72) had a lost season wearing White and Red Sox.

Dustin Pedroia had a solid season with 15 homers, 20 steals and 81 runs scored, but injuries limited him to his worst season of 140 games played.

Derek Jeter was on a whole lot of my teams this year. Turns out he was a hell of a lot better than anyone, well almost anyone, thought he would be (.316-15-59-99-9).

Billy Butler was a superstar posting the best numbers of his career (.313-29-107-72). I don’t think he can get much better – at least in the homer column.

My outfield was a mixed bag. CarGo (.303-22-85-89-20) was once again star. Carl Crawford was once again a massive disappointment in his worst season (31 flipping games). Shane Victorino stole a career best 39 bags, but he also hit a career worst .255, produced 55 RBIs (his lowest total in five years), and scored just 72 times, his fewest times crossing the plate since 2006. Brett Gardner was a total flop appearing in just 16 games because of about 16 setbacks with his elbow. After averaging 48 steals the past two years and getting just two this year, it’s not surprising to see my team come in with seven out of a possible 12 points in the steals category.

Mark Reynolds, a top-5 third baseman in homers, RBIs and runs from 2009-11, had his worst season ever with only a massive finishing kick giving him non-puking numbers (.221-23-69-65). I still spit up a little in my mouth.

James Shields joined Justin Verlander as the only two pitchers in baseball with at least 15 victories and 220 Ks each of the past two years.

Ricky Romero was the worst pitcher ever. Well, not quite, but you know what I mean. If you don’t, here is some context. Not only did he have a 1.67 WHIP over 181 innings, he posted the 10th worst ERA of the 21st century for a hurler who tossed 180 innings (his mark was 5.77, the worst the 6.65 mark of Jose Lima in 2000).

Brandon Morrow was the ace I predicted he would be with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Too bad he made only 21 starts because of injury.

Max Scherzer alternated brilliance and putrid outings frustrating his owners. In the end though no one was complaining about 16 victories, 231 Ks, a 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Chad Billingsley, Erik Bedard, Ricky Nolasco rounded out the rotation. Billingsley was having a nice bounce back season before an elbow injury shut him down at 149.2 innings after 4-straight years over 185 innings. Bedard was just awful after a solid start (7-14, 5.01 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). Amazingly he was healthy but horrible. Nolasco teased again, and in the end the numbers were terrible (12-13, 4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).

Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Brett Myers, Matt Capps and Aroldis Chapman were my bullpen, and yes I led the league in saves with 142, a pretty kick ass number for a 12 team league. Don’t overlook the fact that Santos had only two saves on the year either. If he too was healthy I could have parlayed one of these arms into more help for my starting staff.

CONGRATS: Drew Dinkmyer of Fantistics.

FINAL RESULT: 8/12. Not good. However, one more run, two more wins and 14 more Ks would have landed me in a tie for 6th place. Amazing how close it always is after such a long season.

By Ray Flowers

Review: FSTA League

I stand accountable. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. First up, the FSTA Experts League.

To review my team click on this link: Vegas, BaseballGuys FSTA Team

And if you want to see the results of the draft, click on the FSTA DRAFT link.

A note. This draft was held in January. That created a lot of issues, chief amongst them the fact that Ryan Braun was thought to be suspended for 50 games at the time of the draft (he went in the 4th round to Chris Liss). There was also the little issue of bullpens simply not being setup at the time of the draft (the draft is so early to help people prepare for the season, but in holding it so early there are a ton of issues that crop up).

To my team.

Yadier Molina and Ryan Doumit were rockstars at catcher. Tremendous duo in a 2-catcher league. Better than anyone else’s.

First base was my downfall. Carlos Pena had his worse full season (he hit flipping .197 with 19 homers and 61 RBIs. He had gone deep at least 28 times with 80 RBIs each of the previous five seasons) and Derrek Lee never played (remember, the draft was in January).

Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips weren’t great, but they were certainly solid at second and middle infield.

Evan Longoria, my first round pick, missed half the season. Last year I won the league with Carl Crawford as my first round pick. I couldn’t pull off the trick again with my first round pick crapping out. My two late grabs to help out at the hot corner, Mat Gamel and Ian Stewart, were just awful.

Yunel Escobar was very solid three of the last four years. Oops. Make if three of five years now as he was awful in 2012 as he hit .253 with 51 RBIs and 58 runs scored. He’s a career .282 hitter.

Matt Holliday did what he always does – produce. Michael Bourn slowed late in the year, but he was still at borderline top-50 performer overall. Shane Victorino, like so many others on this squad, had his worst effort (.255-11-55-72-39). Martin Prado qualified in the infield and outfield and was a dynamic 4th OF with a .301-10-70-81-17. That’s a great season. I was once again bit by the early draft. I added Chris Heisey as my 5th outfielder as he appeared to have a shot to hit 25+ homers in a full-time role with the Reds. Literally days later the Reds signed Ryan Ludwick. We know how that turned out. Matt Joyce started strong but was hurt and ultimately faded in the second half. Oh, and that Franklin Gutierrez — always hurt.

The pitching…

Ricky Romero. I don’t need to say anything there other than just list his name. You know what I mean. C.J. Wilson started out fantastically before an elbow injured killed him in the second half (he’ll need surgery). Brandon Morrow was off to a dominating pace but was felled by an oblique issue. Wandy Rodriguez was, Wandy Rodriguez. Sergio Santos below his arm out. Scott Baker blew his arm out. Tim Stauffer didn’t blow his arm out, but he threw all of five innings on the year. Chris Perez was aces. Roy Oswalt was awful (remember, this draft was in January and we all thought he was going to be pitching in the first week of the season). Tyler Clippard was fantastic. Javy Guerra ended the year with a whimper, and Brandon Lyon never did close all year. Not that it would have mattered with the Astros.

CONGRATS: Steve Gardner/Howard Kamen who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 11/13 teams. I failed miserably to repeat as the league champion that I was in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Jay Bruce is at it again. He’s mashing. Over the past three weeks he’s hit .352 with eight homers, 19 RBIs and 16 runs scored. The recent rush has pushed his season marks to .265-32-93-80-7. Last season he produced a fantasy line of .256-32-97-84-8. It might look like nothing has changed but remember that he’s had 110 fewer at-bats this season.

Speaking of the Reds, Chris Heisey is hitting .469 over his last 32 at-bats for the club from Cincy. That’s 15 hits in 32 at-bats folks. He’s been a huge boost in NL-only leagues (check out his ownership rate over at Fleaflicker).

Josh Johnson has looked much better in the second half as he has a 3.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB ratio over his last 11 starts. That’s more like it big fella.

Jed Lowrie hit 14 homers with a .799 OPS in 80 games this season. He’s joined Double-A Corpus Christi. Consider me nonplussed. The guy is a walking injury and his performance is always up and down, up and down. I’ve never been a huge fan despite the obvious skills.

Joe Nathan has been nails the past three weeks. In that time he has struck out 11 batters, without issuing a single free pass, as he’s picked up seven saves in eight outings. Actually, Nathan has been killing it all year long. Not only does he have a 2.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, but he’s also struck out 10.76 batters per nine innings this season while striking out 8.13 batters for every walk. Oh yeah, he’s also 30 for 31 in converting save chances. Obviously his arm is all the way back.

Chris Perez called out the Indians for being cheap. “They (the Tigers) are spending money. He (Mike Ilitch the Tigers owner) wants to win. Even when the economy was down (in Detroit), he spent money. He’s got a team to show for it. You get what you pay for in baseball. Sometimes you don’t. But most of the time you do.” Can’t disagree with the sentiment Mr. Perez, but it might be wise to put your house on the market because if I’m the owner of the Indians you’re on your way out this offseason since you clearly don’t want to be in Cleveland.

I know it’s hard to believe, but Kurt Suzuki has actually looked like a big league hitter since he joined the Nationals. He’s hit .266 with three homers, 13 RBIs an a .742 OPS over 22 games.

Mike Trout, and save the hate email people as I’m just pointing out a fact, is hitting .275 over his last 33 games. It would be advisable for you to spend a few moments reading Ron Shandler’s recent article on Trout as well.

Shane Victorino has not performed up to par with the Dodgers. He’s stolen eight bags in 32 games which is a fine pace of course, but he’s hitting just .254 with one homer and a .651 OPS in the blue and white. I’d expect him to perform better in the month of September.

Tom Wilhelmsen leads baseball with eight saves the past three weeks. Yet again we have proof that you don’t have to spend early draft picks or lost of cash on closers on draft day. On the year Tom has 24 saves in 27 opportunities for the Mariners. He’ also struck out 73 batters in 66.1 innings while posting solid ratios (2.58 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Evan Longoria vs. Derek Holland: .421-2-6 in 19 at-bats
Juan Pierre vs. Jeff Francis: .429 with 18 hits in 42 at-bats
David Ross vs. Jonathon Niese: .462-1-8 in only 13 at-bats

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Andre Ethier vs. Matt Cain: .472 in 53 at-bats
Adam Jones vs. CC Sabathia: .342-3-10 in 38 at-bats
A.J. Pierzynski vs. Bruce Chen: .424-2-4 in 33 at-bats

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

A.J. Burnett vs. Cubs: .179/.256/.192 in 78 at-bats. 1 RBI allowed.
Francisco Liriano vs. Royals: .239/.302/.316 in 117 at-bats
Luis Mendoza vs. White Sox: .230/.312/.388 in 152 at-bats

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Bronson Arroyo vs. Astros: .180/.198/.270 in 100 at-bats.
Jeff Samardzija vs. Pirates: .149/.231/.234 in 47 at-bats
C.J. Wilson vs. Tigers: .240/.324/.323 in 96 at-bats. Zero HRs.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

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To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Trade Day Diary

The 2012 MLB Trade Deadline is upon us. At BaseballGuys.com there’s no way we could sit out the action which figures to be hot and heavy. We’ll be checking in throughout the day with some thoughts on all of the moves that you need to be made aware of as teams begin to set themselves up for the push for the playoffs.

COMPLETED DEALS

Dodgers Receive: Shane Victorino
Phillies Receive: RHP’s Josh Lindblom, Ethan Martin

The Dodgers get a much needed bat to his at the top of their order. An outfield of Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Victorino is the best trio in the NL. Victorino has had a bit of an up and down season but he’s been on top of his game since the All-Star break hitting .357 with five steals and 14 runs scored in 15 games. As a side note. The Phillies are going to call up Domonic Brown, so look for him to get a chance to play almost every day the rest of the way giving him solid value in NL-only leagues.

Rangers Receive: Geovanny Soto
Cubs Receive: RHP Jacob Brigham and some other stuff
(that “stuff” is either a PTBNL or cash).

Soto will slide into a backup job behind the dish since the Rangers already have Mike Napoli. Soto hasn’t hit since 2010, well he hit 17 homers and had 54 RBIs last year, but he also batted .228 last year and isn’t even hitting .200 this year with 35 hits in 176 at-bats (.199). He’ll obviously hold some AL-only value, but his days of even being a catcher #2 in 15 team, two catcher, mixed leagues appear done… at least for 2012. As a result of this deal the Rangers designated Yorvit Torrealba for assignment.

Dodgers Receive: Brandon League
Mariners Receive: RHP Logan Bawcom and OF Leon Landry

League obviously won’t be closing with Kenley Jansen already in town, but he should slide in very nicely in a support role in the Dodgers bullpen given that heavy, an I mean 16 lbs bowling ball heavy, fastball. Still, he’s sporting a 1.42 K/BB ratio in 44.2 innings, so I’m not a huge fan of dumping a lot of FAAB money to add him to an NL-only roster.

Phillies Receive: OF Nate Schierholtz, C Tommy Joseph, RHP Seth Rosin
Giants Receive: Hunter Pence and Cash

It’s about time the Giants added another power bat. Pence-Posey-Sandoval, when all healthy, finally gives the Giants a legitimate 3-4-5 set of bats in the middle of the order. The move to San Francisco doesn’t figure to help Pence much offensively though… or does it? The perception is that Philly is a great hitters park but check out the numbers which tell a different story. At home in 2012 Pence has a .721 OPS that is .121 below his .842 mark on the road.

Rangers Receive: Ryan Dempster
Cubs Receive: RHP Kyle Hendricks, 3B Christian Villanueva

The Cubs were in on Matt Garza too, but they deemed Dempster to be the better medical risk. Going to the AL to pitch in Texas isn’t going to do Dempster’s ratios any favors, not when he doesn’t deserve them in the first place. Still, it’s well worth spending big in AL-only leagues to acquire his services. As a result of his addition the mightily struggling Roy Oswalt has been sent to the bullpen, though the club might still need his services as a starter at some point after the club also announced that Neftali Feliz will have to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Reds Receive: Jonathan Broxton
Royals Receive: LHP Donnie Joseph, RHP J.C. Sulbaran

As a set up man with the Reds, Broxton’s fantasy value is in the total toilet. Given the massive regression in his K/9 this year there is no reason to bother having him on your roster in a mixed league unless you are looking for holds. Broxton should form a tremendous bridge to Aroldis Chapman alongside Sean Marshall. In KC, it seems like Aaron Crow or Greg Holland will be asked to close, though Kelvin Herrera is also in the mix. My money is on Holland.

Yankees Receive: Casey McGehee
Pirates Receive: Chad Qualls

McGehee will help to fill in while A-Rod misses time on the shelf. Hitting just .230 on the year with eight homers, the last time that McG was an impactful hitter for an extended period of time was 2010 when he hit .285 with 23 homers and 104 RBIs. Qualls may not even be worth adding in NL-only leagues.

Pirates Receive: Gaby Sanchez
Marlins Receive: Gorkys Hernandez, RHP Kyle Kaminska, a 2013

Sanchez hit .273 with 18 homers, 85 RBIs and 72 runs scored in 2010. Last year he hit .266 with 19 homers, 78 RBIs and 72 runs scored. This year he’s been hideous appearing in only 55 big league games (he’s spent a lot of time in the minors). In 183 at-bats Sanchez has hit .202 with three homers. A worthwhile gamble for the Pirates, but don’t expect much production the reest of this season.

Red Sox Receive: Craig Breslow
D’backs Receive: Scott Podsednik, Matt Albers 

The Sox sent out two spare parts for lefty who has been a very solid bullpen arm since entering the league in 2005. He’s enjoy a fine season this year with a 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 3.23 K/BB ratio. None of these three is worth a look in anything other than league specific setups

Cardinals Receive: Edward Mujica
Marlins Receive: 3B Zack Cox

One more name removed for 9th inning work with the Marlins. Mujica had a 2.96 ERA in 67 games last season but his 6.00 K/9 mark is his lowest since 2007 and he continues to be plagued by the long ball. Cox was a first round selection in 2010, but he’s struggled to find consistency. This year he has hit a mere .254 with nine homers and an OPS of .716 at Triple-A.

NOT TRADED: Rafael Betancourt, Stephen Drew, Chase Headley, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Denard Span, Justin Upton

 By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 3, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Should I deal Shane Victorino for Eric Hosmer ?
– @cooperkyle22

I always wonder why Victorino gets such little love in the fantasy game? I know he has no outstanding skill, so that must be the reason. He’s never hit 20 homers. He’s never knocked in 70 runs. He’s never stolen 40 bases. He’s never hit .295 in a season. Come to think of it, why do I like him? Oh wait, I know why, it’s because he is consistently productive across the board. From 2008-2011 an “average” Victorino season has led to a fantasy line of .281-15-63-96-29. Again, none of those numbers jump off the page, but how about we look at it differently. How many players in baseball met all those marks last season? The answer is three – Ryan Braun, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp. Victorino fell short at .279-17-61-95-19, still a strong effort that only six other men could match (add in Dustin Pedroia, Justin Upton and Melky Cabrera).

Hosmer was talked up to the point this offseason that if he didn’t go .300-30-100 he was going to be viewed as a disappointment. When you look up after 23 games and see that he’s hitting .183 with a .638 OPS people are having to be dissuaded not to end it all. Let’s pull back though for a second an add some perspective. In 151 career games Hosmer has hit .276 with 24 homers, 92 RBI, 79 runs and 12 steals. How impressive a season would that be for pretty much any first baseman, let alone one that has appeared in just 151 games in his career? In fact, because of the added element of speed that he brings, would it surprise you to learn that not a single first baseman went .276-24-92-79-12 last season? Despite the struggles this year Hosmer has upped his walk rate by about 35 percent while cutting down his strikeout rate. He’s also upped his HR/F ratio to 19.2 percent (13.5 percent last year). It’s also a pretty safe bet that he won’t finish the year with a .162 BABIP. He’ll recover, he’s simply too talented not to.

I’m a big fan of Hosmer who was able to adjust from his struggles last year and rebound to perform, but I’m still going to hold on to Shane Victorino as much for his all-around production as for his history of high level play.

I hated drafting Mark Reynolds and yet I did it. Should I consider dropping him for Will Middlebrooks?
– @SFarup

You know what you get when you roster Reynolds. You get a guy who will be fortunate to hit .240, but one that should produce plenty in the counting numbers. In a highly overlooked situation where people focus more on what Reynolds can’t do than on what he can, it’s often been missed that over the past three years, 2009-11, Reynolds has hit more homers than any other third baseman, posted the second most runs at the position, and been third amongst third sackers in RBI. That’s top-3 in all three categories in case you missed that. However, we’re 20 games into Reynolds season and he’s hitting .136 with no homer, three RBI and four runs. Even I’m scared now. I don’t think he’s going to pull an Adam Dunn, but that has to be a concern at this point. On the plus side Reynolds is currently walking more often than ever before and his BABIP of .257 fits in nicely with his marks of .257 and .266 the past two years. His current line drive rate is also at a three year high. So why the struggles you ask? He hasn’t hit a single home run to boost his average which is a bit odd since he’s actually hit a few more fly balls than normal. He should rebound if given the time to do so (playing time is obviously a big concern at this point).

Middlebrooks was called up when Kevin Youkilis hit the DL with a back issue. Thought of as one of the handful of best prospects in the game at the hot corner, Middlebrooks had two hits in his first game with the Sox and that opened the floodgates for questions about the prospect. Middlebrooks is solid defensively and on offense he has power to all fields. However his K-rate has hovered around 25-30 percent in the minors, and that doesn’t speak to a guy who is going to be a solid average producer in the big leagues. He’s also displayed that solid pop without ever being a big time power threat, and he’s also not very patient at the plate. Don’t get me wrong the guy has a bright future, but at this point of his development he could benefit from some more time at Triple-A, which he figures to get. Why do I say that? When Youkilis is back with the Sox, where does Middlebrooks play? David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez will be the everyday DH and 1B, so what, the Red Sox will put Youkilis on the bench? That’s just not a likely scenario.

Short term you can give Middlebrooks a shot, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you that if it was my team I’d hold on to Reynolds.

Evan Longoria replacement with empty slot: stick with my Daniel Murphy or pick up Pedro Alvarez, Chris Johnson or Chipper Jones?
– @mindmagi

It looks like Longoria will miss anywhere from 6-8 weeks with a hamstring injury, a crushing blow for his owners. Since I’ve gotten similar questions from so many people the past few days, here are a few thoughts on the potential replacements.

Murphy: A nice support player because he qualifies at first, second and third base, Murphy has gone 0-for-9 to drop his average down to .283. That’s certainly a mark he can sustain, he’s a career .291 hitter, but his lack of power right now is pretty brutal (no homers in 99 at-bats and just seven RBI). Murphy will never be anything more than a 15 homer bat, it’s just not his game, but when you don’t steal bases, don’t go deep, and don’t knock runners in, your roster spot is in question in a standard mixed league.

Alvarez: The perpetual underachiever is on fire right now. Over his last 10 games he’s doubled his average from .118 to .242 while socking four homers, knocking in 10 runners and scoring eight times. He still has a whopping 24 Ks in 66 at-bats, and just four walks on the season, but at least the hot run of late gives us some hope that he might finally be starting to live up to expectations, even if there are still significant holes in his game.

Johnson: When you get four hits, including two homers, and six RBI in one game people take notice. Hitting .311 with 14 RBI through 23 games for the Astros, Johnson is a pretty blah option. Not only does he have more Ks (24) than games played, he’s also walked only three times leaving him with a career BB/K mark of 0.16 which is so hideous that the appropriately damning adjective simply slips my mind. Johnson, best case scenario, is a .270-20-80 type of effort, but that doesn’t mean he will reach any of those three totals this year.

Jones: Always productive – when he is on the field. Chipper has repeatedly mentioned to the press that his knees are shot, and that it’s a struggle to make it out onto the field every night. Chipper has four homers and 14 RBI through 16 games, and that .273 average is obviously sustainable, but you have to set your sights with him on a replication of last years efforts, nothing more (.275-18-70 in 126 games).

Mariano Rivera and Jesus Montero for Albert Pujols, what do you think?
– @wbischof

Andruw Jones once fell on his face going from an All-Star to after thought in one season. Adan Dunn did is last year. Mark Reynolds may be on his way to doing it this year. Albert Pujols will not follow that path. It’s possible that Pujols will end the year with the worst numbers of his career, he’s been so awful for 25 games that there is a very real possibility that will happen (.208-0-5-9). Still, are you really going to throw out 11 years of excellence over one bad month? If you are I will not be joining you. Does anyone out there honestly doubt that Pujols could hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI in his remaining 130 games? I’m not saying he will, but I still think it’s possible.

Rivera, given the lunacy that has occurred in bullpens across baseball, has to be one of the most valuable players in fantasy baseball. All he does is go out there, year after year, and produce (check out his efforts over at Fleaflicker). Nothing has changed there at all. Montero has appeared in eight games at catcher (seven starting), so there might still be some leagues where he only qualifies at DH which limits his value. If he qualifies at catcher how can you complain about a guy who is on pace to hit better than .290 with more than 20 homers? You can’t. Still, the guys has 19 Ks in 23 games and he’s walked just two times. Eventually an approach like that is bound to catch up to anyone making Montero hard pressed to be someone you should be looking at hitting .300 this year.

If you’re one of those people who is stuck at catcher – you’ve been rolling out there Kurt Suzuki and Geo Soto – and if you’re bullpen was at one point anchored by Andrew Bailey and Drew Storen, then you could hold on to the duo. If that isn’t the case I’m all about adding Albert Pujols. The breakout is coming.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. The participants for this years event are as follows:

Doug Anderson, RotoExperts
Howard Bender, Fangraphs
Mark Chamberlain, Baseball Sharks
Yours Truly
Steve Gardner, USA Today
Joe Hamrahi, Baseball Prospectus
Tim Heaney, KFFL
Bill Macey, Baseball HQ
Nicholas Minnix, KFFL
Jeff Paur, RTSports
Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times
Pasko Varnica, Mastersball

*For full bios on all 12 of the participants click on this link to K-BAD Bios.

One of the unique aspects of this draft is that the participants are asked to record their thoughts as they work through the slow draft (it’s done over days while all of us pound out our daily work). As a result, KFFL presents a unique look into the mind of an expert to expose “experts” thoughts and decision making process at the time each of the selections are made. For the full 28 round analysis of the draft, from all the experts, simply click on the link to K-Bad Round Analysis.

Since I’m sure you’re all riveted as to how my team came together, I thought I would reproduce the results of my squad in a couple of articles here at BaseballGuys. So without further ado, here is how the draft played out for me.

Round 1: Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols was a strong consideration, as was Troy Tulowitzki, but ultimately I decided on Cabrera for three reasons: the addition of Prince Fielder, the fact that Cabrera can hit .340, and the soon to be third base eligibility he will pick up.

Round 2: Matt Holliday
Overlooked this year by some, I have little doubt he’ll return to something like a .300-25-100 line in St. Louis even with Albert Pujols out of the mix. Was really hoping that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me at this spot, but missed out on him by a few picks.

Round 3: Kevin Youkilis
Really didn’t love this pick. Was tempted to go with another outfielder, but settled for the stability that Youkilis should bring. Plus, everyone is likely to go heavy on third base, so the next time I pick I’ll be hard pressed to find a comparable talent to Youkilis.

Round 4: B.J. Upton
I was hoping that Ben Zobrist would make it back to me. Obviously he didn’t. I considered Michael Bourn but went with the better all-around performer in Upton. With Cabrera/Youkilis/Holliday I should be able to handle Upton’s poor average.

Round 5: Felix Hernandez
I don’t usually go for pitching early, but I’d bet the 5th and 6th rounds are going to be filled with starters being grabbed. There’s nothing wrong with grabbing a guy like Hernandez that should give me 200 Ks and 220-innings of elite work as my staff anchor. Also considered Zack Greinke.

Round 6: Howie Kendrick
A perennial option to hit .300, he’s also likely to go 10/10, possibly even 15/15. I was tempted to take Weeks, but look at Week’s games played mark – an average of just 107 games a season the past five years. Give me Kendrick who also has OF eligibility.

Round 7: Shane Victorino
Solid, consistent, across the board producer. That’s Shane Victorino. I was tempted by Shin-Soo Choo here, but I’m worried about Choo returning to .300, and I don’t know if he’s going to swipe 20 bases anymore either. Shane might be slightly boring to some, but he’s a fantastic 3rd outfielder.

Round 8: Mark Reynolds
People might laugh at this selection, but we all know that third base starts to thin out pretty quickly, and Reynolds covers me at first base as well. His average is woeful, but he is one of only five men to have 30 homers, 85 RBI and 75 runs scored each of the past three years.

Round 9: Derek Jeter
Boring? Yes. Old? Yes. Declining skill set? Yes. So why take him? After the selection of Reynolds with my last pick, I need the .290 average that Jeter should bring. There are more exciting options left at shortstop, but I’m looking for some average stability.

Round 10: Ricky Romero
It’s the time in the draft to start building my pitching staff. Romero may not be elite, but he’ll fit in nicely behind King Felix as I have two power sinking fastball types. Considered going closer, but I’ll wait there.

Round 11: Josh Beckett
I considered Matt Garza and Brandon Morrow here. Garza is as consistent as they come, and Morrow has massive upside, but I split the difference and grabbed Beckett.

Round 12: Brandon Morrow
There might be safer pitchers left on the board, but there are none with 250 K potential. If he keeps the walks down again he could shave a run off his ERA.

Round 13: Dustin Ackley
I was tempted to go with a fourth outfielder here and if I didn’t already have three third base eligible guys (Reynolds, Youkilis and Cabrera) I’d have taken Martin Prado.

Round 14: Sergio Santos
The run on closers commenced, and I jumped in the mix. Was tempted to an address my catcher’s spot which is open, but I went with that huge arm of Santos.

In PART II I’ll continue my look at the selections I made before giving an overall wrap up.

By Ray Flowers