K-BAD – 2013: Part III, BBGuys Team

The fellas over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (the proceeding link takes you to an analysis by every participant on the league). In Part III of this three part review I’ll break down how my squad turned out.

C: Yadier Molina (7th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (21)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (18), Mark Reynolds (23)
2B: Dustin Ackley (19)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1), Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2), Starlin Castro (3)
OF: Austin Jackson (4), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Nick Markakis (10), Mark Trumbo (11), Dexter Fowler (12), Ben Revere (13), Michael Brantley (25), Domonic Brown (26)

STARTING PITCHER: James Shields (8), Yovani Gallardo (9), Jon Lester (14), Dan Haren (15), Shaun Marcum (22), James McDonald (24), Francisco Liriano (28)

RELIEF PITCHER: Steve Cishek (16), Kenley Jansen (17), Bobby Parnell (20), David Robertson (27

For a review of my selections in rounds 1-14.

For a review of my selections in rounds 15-28.

MY MISTAKES

My team is too outfield heavy. There’s just no reason why, especially with a short bench of five players, that I should have added so many outfielders. So why did I? I was sucked into the value the players represented. The problem wouldn’t have been as acute as it is if I hadn’t gone with Brantley and then Brown back-to-back in the 25th and 26th rounds. I took Brantley who I think has the makings of a strong 5th outfielder but I was really tempted to take a shot on Brown’s talent at the same time. When it came around to me again and Brown was still there, I just said what the heck and took Brown too. There’s trading in this league which will help me to move a piece or two, and a handful of outfielders will certainly get hurt before Opening Day (see Curtis Granderson).

My other mistake in this league also revolved around the outfield (maybe subconsciously I was trying to make up for it late in the draft?). I took Ben Revere in the 13th round. I commented at the time I made the selection, and you can read that comment in Part I (linked to above), that I was likely taking Revere too early given how “like” players were often slipping in drafts. I should have listened to my gut. Instead of Revere in the 13th I could have had Coco Crisp in the 18th or Juan Pierre in the 18th round. Learn from my misstep – speed can be had late in drafts this season.

PLAYERS I MISSED OUT ON BY ONE PICK

I have never, not once in a my life, had more players that I was ready to roster taken one pick ahead of me than this draft. In 28 rounds there were eight instances where “my guy” was taken the pick directly ahead of me. Is that some kind of record? Here’s the list of players I missed out on.
Dustin Pedroia, B.J. Upton, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Hart, Neil Walker, Russell Martin, Tyler Colvin, Erasmo Ramirez

I can therefore say one of two things. If I win this league perhaps my initial thoughts on players were wrong since I ended up going with my “backup” plan so often. If I finish in 10th place I’m going to blame others for taking “my guys.” A built in excuse already. Honestly, I can’t remember this happening to me so much. It should be noted as well that this was a “slow” draft conducted over days. It’s one thing to want a player in the heat of battle where there are seven minutes between selections. It’s totally another when you have seven hours between your picks to plan your strategy and then you lose the guy you were targeting. Getting snaked in this set up hurts even worse.

Just for the heck of it – beautiful women.

OVERALL THOUGHTS

As I noted in my initial pick-by-pick review, this team started out nails in the average column. After seven offensive selections my team could legitimately be looked at as a club that could hit .300. That cushion in the average category allowed me to take shots on guys like Saltalamacchia, Trumbo and Reynolds who aren’t going to do anything for me in the average department. However, that Trio of batters could go deep 80+ times fairly easily with health. That power allowed me to feel fine about guys like Revere, Fowler and Markakis being part of my club. I’m a big fan of the mix I’ve got on offense. The key for the squad will be how Youkilis/Reynolds and Ackley perform. If the two corner guys return to “normal” and Ackley shows just a little improvement, this offense is going to impress.

On the hill there are questions. Shields/Gallardo are an impressive top-2 (even if many would disagree). Lester/Haren/Marcum are a trio of risky selections cause of health and down performances last season, but that’s a lot of talent. I defy anyone to tell me that Shields/Gallardo/Lester/Haren couldn’t all be 180 strikeout guys, and let’s not forget about McDonald who could get there too. As I’ve noted many times as well, Marcum never gets the respect he should because of his constant time in the doctor’s office. Liriano’s DL stint at the start of the season will also allow me to add another hurler as soon as he is officially place on the disabled list, so I’ll get to add another potential hurler at that time (Joe Blanton, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard are all on my radar). As for the bullpen, I really like the skills there. Cishek is my only true “closer” to start the year, but as we saw last year when literally two-thirds of clubs ended up changing their 9th inning arms, it’s unwise to read too much into relievers roles at this point. Remember, do what I always preach – target the skills and not the roles. To that end Cishek, Jansen, Parnell and Robertson have elite skills. Elite. I’ll work the wire hard early in the year when the inevitable bullpen shenanigan’s start.

We’ll see how things go, but overall I’m a fan of how this team turned out, even if so many of the guys I had targeted ended up on other clubs.

Thanks to KFFL.com for the invite yet again.

For a PDF copy of the entire K-BAD-Results, click on the link.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part II, Rounds 15-28

The peeps over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (to see how others in the league constructed their clubs, click on the link above). In Part II of this three part series I will review selections made in rounds 15-28.

For a review of selections in rounds 1-14.

Round 15: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Players: Dan Haren, SP
I believe Haren will rebound in 2013. Here’s the reasons why.

Round 16: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Steve Cishek, RP
Wanted Corey Hart who was taken a pick ahead. Therefore decided to make the plunge with my first closer. Stronger skills than Jim Johnson who had 51 saves last year.

Round 17: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Kenley Jansen
It looks like Brandon League will be the closer to start the year, but I expect Jansen to lead the Dodgers in saves just like he did last season after starting out as a setup man. Just a massive arm.

Round 18: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B
He qualifies at both corner infield spots, will get to hit in a solid batters yard in New York, is motivated, and has reworked his swing a bit. All of those things are pluses.

Round 19: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Dustin Ackley, 2B
I don’t know how he scored more than 80 runs with an OBP under .300 last year. Some slight improvement across the board could lead to 10th round production.

Round 20: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Bobby Parnell
There’s no doubting Frank Francisco has a huge arm, but elbow woes could lead to the fire balling/ground ball inducing Parnell becoming the Mets’ closer.

Round 21: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
The guy I wanted (Russell Martin) was taken one pick before me (what a shock). Salty could go for 25 HRs, so he’s not an awful consolation prize.

Round 22: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Shaun Marcum, SP
Injuries have sapped his value in some folks eyes, but since 2008 an average Marcum season: 11-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.44 K/9, 2.91 K/BB in 168 innings.

Round 23: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Mark Reynolds, 1B
Few seem to remember, but from 2008 an average Reynolds effort has led to 33 homers, 88 RBIs, 83 runs, 10 steals. So what if he’s hit .229 in that time? I can handle the average with my roster.

Round 24: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: James McDonald, SP
A tale of two halves. In the first he was impressive (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP ). In the second he sucked eggs (3-5, 7.52 ERA, 1.79 WHIP). Still has that power arm. See his Player Profile.

Round 25: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Michael Brantley, OF
Not that far away from being someone of note. He was one of nine outfielders to go .288-6-60-63-12 last season. See his Player Profile.

Round 26: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Domonic Brown, OF
I really didn’t need another outfielder after taking Brantle, but with Delmon Young nursing an ankle injury maybe, just maybe, Brown will finally flash that 20/20 talent. We can trade in this league too, and Mr. Minnix has already expressed an interest in Mr. Brown.

Round 27: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: David Robertson
Had a great season last year and people forget if he hadn’t gotten hurt it likely would have been him, and not Rafael Soriano, who led the Yankees in saves.

Round 28: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Francisco Liriano, SP
Why make the injured lefty my last selection? We’ve got two DL spots in this league. I’ll put Liriano on the DL and then grab another SP as soon as I can. See his Player Profile.

And with that all there is to do is to review the final squad which is what I will do in Part III of the series.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Hurlers: Mound Movement

The start of major league baseball season is getting closer by the hour, and in less than a month Spring Training will officially start rolling. I’m excited too. Today I will review some of the recent player movement on the hill. I’ll talk about some hurlers who are changing roles, have a brief discussion of a guy who has a great mustache who was injured while shoveling snow, and I’ll also discuss a woman that my mom thinks would make a great wife to one Ray Flowers.

Daniel Bard was a relative star as a setup man out of the bullpen for the Red Sox. His role was changed last season, the Sox mistakenly thought he would be better served as a starter, and the results were disastrous. In 2010-11, as a reliever mind you, he posted a 2.62 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 150 Ks in 147.2 innings. Last season? Bard made 17 appearances, 10 as a starter, and here is what happened: 6.22 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 5.76 K/9. He went from elite to performing like he should be in Double-A virtually overnight. The good news is that he will return to the bullpen this year and that he has been able to rediscover his “old” arm slot. The Sox should have one heck of a pen this season with Bard, Tazawa, Uehara, Bailey and Hanrahan. Wow, that’s an impressive group of arms.

Brandon Beachy killed it last year with a 2.00 ERA an a 0.96 WHIP over 81 innings for the Braves. Unfortunately his season was cut short by an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John Surgery. His rehab has gone well to this point, he hopes to be able to start throwing off a mound by Spring Training, and there is a belief that he will be able to return to the rotation by June. Great news, but do you draft him? In a mixed league it would be wise to pass unless you have a DL spot (you obviously take a shot in NL-only leagues). It’s still no lock that he will return in June or that he will return to mowing down batters right off the hop.

Shaun Marcum signed a deal with the Mets for $4 million dollars with incentives that could add another $2 million to his one year contract. Marcum has dealt with elbow issues for years but he brings a nice skill-set to a park that certainly isn’t an offensive environment. Since 2008 here is an average Marcum season: 11-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.44 K/9, 2.91 K/BB over an average of 168 innings per season (that’s leaving out 2009 when he missed the entire season). Look at those numbers. Much better than you thought, right? The innings are a bit low for sure, as I noted he’s long had issues with his health which continues to depress his value, but those are some pretty impressive ratios are they not? In fact, among all hurlers who have thrown at least 650 innings since the start of the 2008 season, do you know how many hurlers have posted an ERA under 3.60, allowed 10.85 base runners per nine innings or less while striking out 7.40 or more batters per nine innings with a 2.75 or better K/BB ratio? The answer is 11 — including Mr. Marcum. That’s why I felt very comfortable taking Marcum in the 23rd round in the recently completed 2013 FSTA Experts League.

Just cause. Jennifer Love Hewitt. My mom thinks we would make a wonderful couple.

Carl Pavano fell and ruptured his spleen while he was clearing snow from his driveway. Something is always happening with that guy. To his credit he actually tossed at least 199.1 innings each year from 2009-11, I know a shock, but he regressed to 11 starts and 63 innings last season for the Twins. He’s likely to miss 6-8 weeks with his current injury which might mean he will be forced to take a non-guaranteed deal this season (the Mets and Rockies are said to be the most interested).

David Robertson agreed to a 1-year, $3.1 million deal to continue to ply his trade out of the bullpen of the Yankees. Mariano Rivera is expected to be full recovered from his knee surgery and once again handle 9th inning duties, but with Rafael Soriano out of town (he signed with the Nationals), it seems likely that Robertson will be the primary setup man. Rather quietly Robertson posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, a 12.02 K/9 an a 4.26 K/BB ratio over 60.2 innings. A little secret. The last two years he has been on of the five best right handed setup men in baseball.

By Ray Flowers

2013 FSTA LEAGUE

In 2011 I was the FSTA Champion even though I selected Carl Crawford in the first round (he appeared in just 130 games hitting .255 with 65 runs and 18 steals in his worst season of more than 100 games played.). In 2012 I had another first round selection fail to live up to expectations as Evan Longoria had an injury filled campaign. This time I finished in 11th out of 13 teams. Embarrassing. I’m back for blood in 2013. Here’s how the just completed draft went down in Las Vegas (I love vodka and Red Bull by the way… just thought I would share that).

13 teams, Mixed League, 5×5
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Nine pitchers (any combination of SPs and Rps)
Six bench spots

Here’s the team I selected out of the #6 hole (you can see the results of the entire draft at the RT Sports Link). The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted.

C: Joe Mauer (5), Russell Martin (21)
1B: Adam LaRoche (12)
2B: Howie Kendrick (10)
3B: Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI/CI: Asdrubal Cabrera (7), Kevin Youkilis (14)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (1), B.J. Upton (3), Jay Bruce (4), Coco Crisp (18), Denard Span (19)
UT: Mark Reynolds (20)

SP: James Shields (8), Max Scherzer (9), Tim Lincecum (11), Tim Hudson (16), Wandy Rodriguez (22), Shaun Marcum (23), Edinson Volquez (25), Erasmo Ramirez (28)
RP: J.J. Putz (13), Joel Hanrahan (15), Jason Grilli (17), Sean Marshall (29)

BENCH: Chris Young (24), Jemile Weeks (26), Justin Maxwell (27)

So how did this team turn out? Let me explain how things evolved.

I almost took Joey Votto in round one, but instead went for the more well-rounded game of McCutchen.

In the second I nearly took Jose Reyes. Ultimately I went for HanRam who has more power and qualifies at two spots (SS, 3B). I worry a bit about Reyes playing on Astro Turf, the fact that he is been hurt a fair amount, and that he doesn’t steal bases like he once did.

Round three I grabbed B.J. Upton – who now gets to play with his brother Justin Upton in Atlanta. After three rounds I felt like I had three guys who could all go 20/20. I like that.

In Round four I took the power bat of Bruce, who in my eyes isn’t much different than Ginacarlo Stanton who was taken in the first round. Bruce was another strong pick, but his selection caused a problem. Ramirez/Upton/Bruce could get 1,500+ at-bats with a batting average of .260. That’s not a strong start in that category. So, in order to address that situation my next two picks were guys who should be strong batting average plays – Mauer and Prado. I don’t normally take a catcher this early, but Mauer is pretty much a lock for a .300 average. I just hope he plays 140 games. Prado, who was just dealt to Arizona (which could help his offensive game out a wee bit), is another guy with a batting average floor of about .285. He makes contact, steals a few bags, and should score a ton of runs hitting near the top of the D’backs batting order. He also qualifies at third base and the outfield as well which doesn’t hurt.

Noticing that the middle infield was getting really thin, I took Cabrera for my MI spot. I’d be happy with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers (.270-16-68-70-9). Even a repeat would be alright. Jemile Weeks is a forgotten man but just 12 months ago people thought we could be looking at a .280 hitting, 30 steal guy at second base.

Youkilis and Reynolds are my corner infield options. Neither is great, but I should be able to cobble together something solid there. LaRoche at first base is boring but he did hit 33 homers with 100 RBIs last year. I’d rather have him in the 12th round than Ryan Howard in the 5th.

My outfield has an impressive top-3 (McCutchen, Upton, Bruce). Crisp has a great fro, and he’s stolen at least 32 bases each of the last three years. Span has a .285, 95 run season in him in Washington. I’m telling ya. For support I rostered Young and Maxwell, both of whom have huge holes in their games. Still, both have the talent to make a run at a 20/20 season. I only need one to hit.

I did my normal waiting thing on starters, and I like how it turned out. Shields and Scherzer can win 30 games with 400 plus Ks. You don’t think so? Lincecum could win 15 games and strike out 200 too, even if you don’t think he can. As I noted at the draft table, I think Lincecum in the 11th has every chance of matching Yovani Gallardo who was taken in the 9th. Hudson/Wandy/Marcum might all be the same hurler, but as 4-6 starters I like a trio that is going to be solid in the ratio categories (3.50 ERA, 1.25ish WHIP). Volquez has a huge arm (see his Player Profile). No one seems to think much of my Erasmo pick. Hey, the guy pitches for the Mariners, had a 1.00 WHIP an a 4.00 K/BB ratio over 59 innings last season. I’ll take a shot on that.

In the bullpen – huge arms abound. Putz and Hanrahan, if healthy, should give me 70 saves. Those that think Putz is at the end of his rope aren’t looking at the numbers (or the contract extension he was given by the Diamondbacks). Grilli has never been a closer, but he struck out 13.8 batters per nine innings last season and had a 4.09 K/BB ratio. I like that and so should you. Marshall is the best left handed setup man in the NL. If Aroldis Chapman starts as planned, guess who is the #2 option in Cincy for 9th inning work? It’s Marshall who would only be behind Jonathan Broxton, you know the guy who struck out 6.98 batters per nine innings last season, only four batters below his career mark of 10.96. Broxton is also a year removed from a 6.39 BB/9 mark. Sure it was 12.2 innings, but that should make you nervous if you plan on counting on Mr. Broxton.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

MLB: Monday Madness

I love the Player Profiles, digging deep into a player and trying to ferret out whether or not expectations are too high or too low for the guy. Alas, I don’t want to become monotonous in the way that I cover the world of baseball, so I’m throwing a change up. Today I’m gonna touch on a handful of stories that have cropped up over the last 24-48 hours and give my take on players as diverse as Oswalt, Pujols, Trout, Marcum and Webb.

Shaun Marcum is still without a team, though Jon Paul Morosi is reporting that the Padres, Pirates and Rangers are all showing interest in the righty hurler of late (the Indians, Royals and Twins have also been mentioned as possible landing spots). There are issues concerning his health, he was limited to just 124 innings last season and has a history of issues with the wing, but whenever he is on the hill he’s been a damn fine big league hurler (last year’s 3.70 ERA and 1.27 WHIP were both four year highs). If Marcum’s healthy he’s an ideal #4 starter with SP3 upside.

Roy Oswalt hasn’t decided if he wants to pitch this season, but it sounds like even if he does return he may pull a Roger Clemens and only pitch for half the year. Oswalt was a huge letdown last season in his 59 innings with the Rangers posting a 5.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Given that his career numbers are 3.28 and 1.20 you can see just how off the rails things were last year. It may be hard to tell given how bad he was onteh surface, but Oswalt still did some awfully nice things last year. He struck out a better per inning. He posted a 1.68 BB/9 mark which was a six year low. The result was a 5.36 K/BB ratio which was his best mark since his rookie season of 2001. He had a GB/FB ratio of 1.42, only four hundredths below his career mark an actually a four year best. He was done in by a career worst .378 BABIP (just .079 points above his career mark) and by a HR/F ratio of 18.6 percent (in his previous 10 seasons only twice did that ratio even reach double-digits). If he wants to, if he’s motivated and healthy (his back is an issue), he can still help out plenty of teams on the hill.

Have you ever had a Mexican torta? I’m getting me one for lunch today from the local taqueria.

Justin Smoak hasn’t lived up to expectations – about as obvious a statement as saying that Mike Trout is a really good baseball player (more on Trout below). The Mariners have brought in vets this offseason, and if guys like Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Kendrys Morales are up to speed, it’s possible that Smoak would be without a spot in the daily lineup (what do you expect when you’ve hit .223 with a .683 OPS over 355 career games). The Red Sox, still uncertain about how the Mike Napoli situation is going to play out, have apparently reached out to the Mariners to gauge whether or not the club might be willing to deal the first baseman. Smoak still could end up being a productive run producer, think Carlos Pena at the dish without the walks, though that would obviously be a significant issue for Smoak since he’s shown an inability to get on base (career .306 OBP).

For the hell of it – puppies.

Mike Trout continues to be the early leader for the #1 selection in fantasy leagues according to ADP. I knew it would happen, didn’t we all, but I’m still a bit surprised by it. How anyone could take him over Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera is beyond me.

The D’backs still sound like they want to deal Justin Upton. I just don’t get it. For more on this situation check out my piece entitled Pujols at End of Road? That article also gives a rundown of what you should be thinking about Mr. Pujols heading into 2013.

Brandon Webb is drawing a bit of interest on the market with the latest team reportedly kicking the tires being the Rockies. Webb is just the type of arm that the Rockies covet as he’s a guy who disdains the fly ball. For his career Webb owns a 64.2 percent ground ball rate, and each of the six seasons he threw at least 180 innings that mark was at least 61.8 percent. Unfortunately he last threw a big league pitch in 2009, and even then it was just four innings worth of throws. Webb has had surgery and been doing his best to get his arm back in shape – his shoulder is the issue – so I wish him luck. The odds are about as strongly against him as possible in his bid to return to big league baseball though.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August21, 2012

(1) Athletics deal to add Stephen Drew. Can he prove his skills are intact?

(2) Sean Rodriguez sent to minors for Rays as Luke Scott is activated from DL.

(3) Alejandro De Aza sent to DL. Dewayne Wise to fill in.

(4) Brewers rotation about ready to get jumbled due to IP concerns and returning Shaun Marcum.

(5) Juan Pierre better than expected.

(6) Troy Tulowitzki still improving. Hopes to return in September.

(7) Eric Young Jr. to avoid the DL. Has been white hot at dish.
*** NOTE: The Rockies changed their minds and did end up placing Young on the DL after this video was recorded.

(8) Carl Crawford to have Tommy John surgery – season is over.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June20, 2012

(1) Troy Tulowitzki having more tests run. Is his season in doubt?

(2) Mark Trumbo mashing with the big boys. Can’t keep it up, can he?

(3) Barry Zito caving – what a shock.

(4) Should you be worried about Ryan Cook? Maybe?

(5) Aramis Ramirez, predictably, is heating up.

(6) Shaun Marcum says elbow is alright.

(7) Bullpen updates: Jose Valverde, J.J. Putz and John Axford struggling while Carlos Marmol’s arrow is going up.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your wild party on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

DailyJoust allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Adam Dunn vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Dunn has seen his average dip from .240 to .214 over his past nine games though he has gone deep three times in that time. However, he has racked up 17 Ks (wow). So why mention him for today when he’s facing a lefty, his career long Kryptonite? For whatever reason he kills Wandy hitting .435 with two homers in 23 at-bats.

Raul Ibanez vs. Johan Santana: Ibanez has slumped down to .255 from .270 a little over a week ago, but Mr. Santana, you know Mr. No-Hitter, might be the tonic he needs to turn things around. Ibanez has racked up 16 hits and 10 RBI in 36 at-bats against Johan leading to a .348 batting average. By the way, Derek Jeter also lights Johan up with a .455 average in 33 at-bats.

Rickie Weeks vs. Edinson Volquez: Weeks has been in the discussion for the worst every day player in the NL hitting .160 with a .582 OPS. He’s also gone hitless, 0-for-12, in his last three games. So pull the trigger on starting him Friday? Why not. Against Volquez has has gone 6-for-12 with two homers.

*** Avoid Michael Young who has hit just .232 with a .601 OPS against Barry Zito in 82 at-bats.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Felix Doubront vs. Phillies: In 27 innings at home this year he has 33 Ks, and over his last five starts he has allowed two or fewer runs each time for a total of eight runs allowed. The Nationals are near the bottom of the league with a .241 batting average an are also in the bottom five in baseball in runs scored (209).

Jeremy Hellickson vs. Marlins: I can’t always explain how he gets it done, but the bottom line is that he does. In 50 career starts he has a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while holding batter to a .218 average. Over his last nine outings this season he’s allowed two or one earned runs seven times with the other two outings resulting in just three runners crossing the plate.

Shaun Marcum vs. Padres: It might seem obvious to start any pitcher against the Padres, but there are also plenty o’ numbers to suggest it’s the right move with Marcum. Career vs. Padres: 2-0, 3.15 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 4.00 K/BB in three starts. Last two starts this year against the Dodgers and Pirates: 2-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 8.5 K/BB ratio over 14 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Damon vs. Kyle Lohse: When he isn’t busy making babies with his hot wife, Damon is lashing out hits against the righty from St. Louis. Damon has six hits in 16 at-bats against Lohse leading to a .375 average. Yes, that’s also a picture of Damon’s wife. I wouldn’t care if I got a hit either.

Prince Fielder vs. Bronson Arroyo: On paper this doesn’t look anything like a matchup that favors the Tigers’ slugger. Prince has hit just .238 in 42 at-bats against the righty from Cincy, but there is one obvious reason to play Fielder – power. Fielder has gone deep four times against Arroyo, and since the start of last season Bronson has given up a rather insane total of 54 long balls in 43 starts.

Kevin Youkilis vs. Gio Gonzalez: It’s only 11 at-bats of a matchup, but Youkilis has six hits, including a homer, leading to a .545 AVG an a 1.402 OPS. He’s also hit .303 with a .909 OPS at home in his career, and that’s over 482 games.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Matt Moore vs. Marlins: As a club the Fish are batting .233 with a .307 OBP and .401 SLG against left handed pitching, numbers that all lag behind the average big league hitter this season (.252/.318/.402). Moore has also seemingly started to find his groove as he’s allowed a total of five runs in his last three starts and he has 20 Ks over the 17.2 innings.

Chris Sale vs. Astros: It’s almost like taking candy from a baby, isn’t it? Sale has allowed a total of four runs over his last four starts as he has punched out 36 batters while issuing only seven walks in 4-straight victories. If things go according to plan, the Astros don’t stand a chance.

Jason Vargas vs. Dodgers: It’s a brutal matchup on paper as Vargas has to face the best left-handed pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw. Owner of a 3.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the year, Vargas has flat out dominated at home this year with a 1.91 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four starts and in 49 career games at Safeco he is 18-16 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

CONTESTS

It’s Friday, and that means it’s time to win a few bucks thanks to DailyJoust.com. Sign up for a Free Roll and try your chances, or you can join any other number of daily fantasy baseball games that include home run derby’s, survivor pools and a chance to win a trip to the 2012 MLB All-Star game.

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By Ray Flowers 

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano/Nick Swisher/Mark Teixeira: All three of these Yankees face King Felix, and in most cases that is a recipe for a benching. However, the three Yankees bats have had ample success against the Mariners’ ace.

Cano: .355/.429/581 with two HRs, 4 RBI in 31 at-bats
Swisher: .238/.333/.548 with 4 HRs, 5 RBI in 42 at-bats
Tex: .321/.393/.679 with five HRs, 9 RBIs in 53 at-bats

Sometimes things don’t make a lot of sense.

Casey Kotchman: Clay Buchholz has allowed only 10 hits to all the players currently on the Indians, it just so happens that six of them have been to Kotchman in 11 at-bats, and that’s good for a .545 average. Kotchman is also eight for 23 of late good for a .348 average the past eight days.

Adrian Beltre: The Rangers’ slugger is back to playing third base after dealing with a lower body injury for a while now, and he’s likely looking forward to facing C.J. Wilson given that he has seven hits in 19 at-bats against the lefty (.368/.429/.684).

Jeff Baker/Geo Soto: The two Cubs batters face the always moderately effective Randy Wolf (if you’re looking for a cheap play, Baker is your guy. Look at how many teams over at Fleaflicker have him rostered). The duo has combined to hit four homers with 13 RBI in 54 at-bats against Wolf with Soto hitting three of the bombs with a .333 average while Baker has hit .417 in the matchup.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Chris Capuano is undefeated through six starts with a 2.21 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 36 Ks in 36.2 innings. He faces a Rockies club that has hit just .235 against him, and Capuano is 5-1 in his career at Dodger Stadium where the game will take place.

Gio Gonzalez faces a Reds club that he has held to a .109 batting average over 14 innings. The Reds hitters have only managed to bat .109 against Gio who has allowed just three runs in his last five outings this season.

I know I wrote earlier about three hitters from the Yankees that have had a lot of success against Felix Hernandez, but that doesn’t mean King Felix is a bad play Saturday. He is 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his outings at the new Yankees Stadium.

Johan Santana has been fantastic this year with a 2.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 34 strikeouts through 31 innings. He faces the Marlins Saturday, a team that he has gone 6-1 against with a 1.46 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 81 punchouts in 68 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Michael Bourn/Jack Wilson: In 25 at-bats against Adam Wainwright Bourn has hit .320 whereas Wilson has hit .364 in 22 at-bats against the righty from St. Louis.

Omar Infante: The guy just keeps on hitting everyone, including going deep with a greater frequency than we’ve ever seen from the slap hitter. Infante has had immense success against the Mets’ R.A. Dickey with 12 hits in 25 at-bats, good for a  .480 batting average.

Andrew McCutchen: Hitting .330 through 28 games, McC has only two bombs on the year, though they have come in the past five days. McCutchen faces J.A. Happ Saturday, a hurler who he has beat around for three homers and five RBI in just 22 at-bats (he has also hit .364 against Happ).

David Wright: This guy has flat out murdered the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco. Wright, in 57 at-bats, has hit .386 with a 1.118 OPS. He’s also gone deep four times with 13 RBI against the perpetually underachieving Nolasco who has actually performed pretty well this year.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

R.A. Dickey faces a Marlins club that continue to struggle to score despite the talent they possess. Dickey shut down the Marlins earlier this season with a one run, seven inning effort that led to a victory. Dickey was bombed in one start this season but in five of his six outings this season he has produced a “quality start.”

Doug Fister faces the Athletics, arguably the worst offense in baseball. Fister also tossed seven shutout innings in his first start back from the DL to up his season long mark to 10.2 shutout innings. Fister has enjoyed plenty of success in his career against the Athletics with a 5-3 record in 10 outings. Fister has also posted a 2.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over those 60 innings.

Shaun Marcum is 3-0 with a  2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in three games against the Cubs. Rather amazingly he also has 17 Ks and just one walk in 20 innings against the Cubbies.

Adam Wainwright is 6-0 with a  2.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP against Braves in 44 innings. Wainwright has also gone 2-0 with only five runs allowed in his last three starts this year as he rounds into form as he continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery.

CONTESTS

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday May 5th starting at 7pm EST.

Here are the details:

- Create your team with a 1 million dollar salary cap: C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

- It’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs

To register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest click on this link.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Grab Bag

The MLB Grab Bag is in full effect today. I’m going to meander around the world of baseball today, and I might even through in some none baseball stuff too.

I keep getting questions about Jose Bautista. Let me state it again – he has zero chance of repeating his 2010 effort. Obviously he will regress, the question is how much? I’m looking at a .260-30-90 type effort – though I really hate trying to predict the actual numbers. For more on the situation give Breaking Down: Jose Bautista a few minutes of your time.

I’m still nauseated by the Alex Rodriguez, Cameron Diaz food-feeding incident from the Super Bowl. Click on A Question, A Statement, A Pukefest for a rundown of the whole scene.

AUDIO: Looking for 10 minutes of superfantastic baseball talk? If you are make sure you listen to my interview with the Davis Sports Deli where we chatted about Albert Pujols, the state of the Red Sox and Yankees, why the Royals just can’t figure it out and just how good the Rangers offense could be.

I wrote about the signings of Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver, Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Scott and Orlando Cabrera over in MLB News and Notes: February 11. A quick review – Its a good deal for the Rangers. Weaver is a stud. Marcum is on the verge of becoming a fantasy star. Guthrie is likely a better pitcher than you think. Luke Scott, so-so. Orlando Cabrera is nothing more than a place holder.

I can’t help it. Every time Katy Perry’s California Gurls comes on the radio I end up bobbing my head. Man, I gotta get a date.

Nick Swisher is changing from his long time agent over to the Dark Lord of the Sith – Scott Boras. I’ve got four thoughts on this matter. (1) The timing of this is odd. Swisher is under contract fort this season at $9.0 million, and he has a $10.25 million club option for next season. (2) Swisher had a strong season last year. He should be productive this season, he always is, but I don’t think he will be able to replicate some of the numbers he put up last year. For more on the outlook of Swisher for 2011 give my 2011 Player Profile: Nick Swisher a read. (3) Scott Boras is flat out amazing. (4) Speaking of the Dark Lord, did you catch the best commercial of the Super Bowl, you know, the one with the young Darth Vader discovering the power of The Force?

There’s just no way that the Cardinals and Albert Pujols don’t work out a contract extension is there? If it doesn’t happen, could he join the San Francisco Giants? I admit it, it’s a total pipe dream with less chance of becoming a reality than me finding the woman of my dreams and getting married this weekend in a wildly romantic setting overlooking the Pacific Ocean. Can’t blame a kid for dreaming though can you?

I was a great hitter but my defense was, to be kind, poor. I’m 21st all-time in OBP and 25th in SLG while my overall OPS of .974 is the 15th best mark ever posted in the history of the game. Who Am I?

Did you see the report that Edinson Volquez turned down a 4-year deal from the Reds? The dude must have some serious stones. There’s no mention in the report of how much he was offered, but here is a quote from Volquez. “They were offering me a contract for four years, the same as Johnny Cueto, but I didn’t feel it was right for me..” It’s unclear if Volquez was saying that they offered him four years like Cueto or if they offered him the same exact deal for $27 million. Either way, I’m surprised that Volquez didn’t jump on the deal unless it was a total low ball offer. Volquez will make $1.6 million this season as he bets on himself and his continued return to prominence.

By Ray Flowers