Draft Day Challenge, May 7

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Russell Martin
2. Wilson Ramos

Martin has gone 6-for-13 with a couple of RBIs against Aaron Harang. Martin’s also hitting .308 the past week, and Harang is sporting an 8.68 ERA this season with the Mariners.

Ramos has five hits an a homer in 13 at-bats against Anibal Sanchez. He’s only got four hits in 16 at-bats since he returned to action, so he’s not exactly locked in.

FIRST BASE
1. Billy Butler
2. Garrett Jones

Butler has five hits in six at-bats against Wei-Yin Chen. Two of those hits are homers. He’s also driven in four runs. The last week he’s also started to hit a bit with a .286 average.

Jones has had no success against lefties, he basically sits against all of them, but he’s done a fine job versus righties. He faces Aaron Harang whom he has six hits in 10 at-bats against, including a big fly.

SECOND BASE
1. Jedd Gyorko
2. Ryan Raburn

Gyorko is finally hitting after a bit of a slow start. Over the past week he’s hit .370 with three homers, six RBIs and five runs scored. He faces the far from imposing Alex Sanabia Tuesday.

The AL’s reigning Player of the Week, Raburn has hit .476 with two homers and six RBIs in his last 22 at-bats. He faces lefty Tommy Milone Tuesday night.

THIRD BASE
1. Chase Headley
2. Luis Valbuena

Headley is up to .299 thanks to an 11-game hitting streak, and he’s driven in six runs in his last seven games. He’s also batting .326 versus righties this season, a good thing since he faces Alex Sanabia who just so happens to be a righty.

Valbuena is your cheap play of the day. He’s batting .286 against righties this season, and he’s hitting .342 at home. He plays in Chicago Tuesday while taking on righty Lance Lynn.

SHORTSTOP
1. Andrelton Simmons
2. Starlin Castro

Simmons takes on the Reds’ Bailey, and he’s streaking right now. Simmons is hitting .360 the past week, but even more impressive is the total of three big flies, seven RBIs and six runs scored. He’s rolling.

.300′s abound. Castro is hitting .300 the last seven days. He’s hitting .329 at home. He’s batting .385 vs. Lance Lynn (5-for-13). He’s pushed his average up to .277 on the season.

OUTFIELD
1. Nick Markakis
2. Matt Holliday

Markakis has enjoyed success against the hot Ervin Santana with a .294 average and 1.000 OPS in 34 at-bats. Markakis has also gone deep three times while driving in 10 runs against the righty.

Holliday is 6-for-18, a .333 average, with two bombs and four RBIs against Travis Wood. Holliday has always killed it against the Cubs with a .305 average and .877 OPS in 73 career games.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Matt Harvey
2. Anibal Sanchez
3. Tim Lincecum
4. C.J. Wilson

Harvey is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Nothing bad to say about the young righty who is taking on the White Sox.

Sanchez is 8-0 with a 1.97 ERA against the Nationals In his career. The current Nationals club has also hit .195 with a .541 OPS against Sanchez in 195 at-bats.

Lincecum is 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, not to mention 77 Ks in 75 innings, in 11 starts against the Phillies. He’s also allowed just one homer, and seven runs, over his last three starts.

Wilson is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA and two saves against the Astros. He also beat the club from Houston earlier this season with one run allowed over six innings on April 14th.

By Ray Flowers

FanDuel Contest: $3000 Friday Tournament

Every Friday at BaseballGuys.com, I relay to you how you can sign up for a daily fantasy baseball game courtesy of FanDuel.com. Today is no different. I’ll spend a bit of time detailing how you can win some cash, and then I’ll give away all my secrets by letting you know who should, or shouldn’t, be in your lineup. Oh, and finally, I’m also going to be in the league, so you will get a shot to take down the obnoxious Ray Flowers.

* NOTE: This information about who to play on Friday is clearly something those of you in standard roto leagues should be looking at as well. Guys like Buster Posey and Dustin Pedroia may not be guys you want in your lineup Friday.

$3000 Friday Fantasy Baseball Tournament

You got $10 laying around? Do you want to spend it on a hot dog and beer? Sure you could do that, but in 15 minutes it would be gone. Well, until the hot dog starts repeating on you in about an hour an a half that is. Why not take that $10 and try to win part of the $3000 cash prize given away by FanDuel.com? Here’s what you do.

Sign up using this link.

Select your salary cap roster by 7 PM EDT, Friday.

Watch the games tonight. Pick up your cash (there are 37 spots that pay out… and even the 37th finisher doubles their initial investment).

So sign up, enjoy the night of games, and then win some cash. Maybe you’ll be able to buy a hot dog and a case of beer for your next Friday night.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part III, BBGuys Team

The fellas over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (the proceeding link takes you to an analysis by every participant on the league). In Part III of this three part review I’ll break down how my squad turned out.

C: Yadier Molina (7th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (21)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (18), Mark Reynolds (23)
2B: Dustin Ackley (19)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1), Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2), Starlin Castro (3)
OF: Austin Jackson (4), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Nick Markakis (10), Mark Trumbo (11), Dexter Fowler (12), Ben Revere (13), Michael Brantley (25), Domonic Brown (26)

STARTING PITCHER: James Shields (8), Yovani Gallardo (9), Jon Lester (14), Dan Haren (15), Shaun Marcum (22), James McDonald (24), Francisco Liriano (28)

RELIEF PITCHER: Steve Cishek (16), Kenley Jansen (17), Bobby Parnell (20), David Robertson (27

For a review of my selections in rounds 1-14.

For a review of my selections in rounds 15-28.

MY MISTAKES

My team is too outfield heavy. There’s just no reason why, especially with a short bench of five players, that I should have added so many outfielders. So why did I? I was sucked into the value the players represented. The problem wouldn’t have been as acute as it is if I hadn’t gone with Brantley and then Brown back-to-back in the 25th and 26th rounds. I took Brantley who I think has the makings of a strong 5th outfielder but I was really tempted to take a shot on Brown’s talent at the same time. When it came around to me again and Brown was still there, I just said what the heck and took Brown too. There’s trading in this league which will help me to move a piece or two, and a handful of outfielders will certainly get hurt before Opening Day (see Curtis Granderson).

My other mistake in this league also revolved around the outfield (maybe subconsciously I was trying to make up for it late in the draft?). I took Ben Revere in the 13th round. I commented at the time I made the selection, and you can read that comment in Part I (linked to above), that I was likely taking Revere too early given how “like” players were often slipping in drafts. I should have listened to my gut. Instead of Revere in the 13th I could have had Coco Crisp in the 18th or Juan Pierre in the 18th round. Learn from my misstep – speed can be had late in drafts this season.

PLAYERS I MISSED OUT ON BY ONE PICK

I have never, not once in a my life, had more players that I was ready to roster taken one pick ahead of me than this draft. In 28 rounds there were eight instances where “my guy” was taken the pick directly ahead of me. Is that some kind of record? Here’s the list of players I missed out on.
Dustin Pedroia, B.J. Upton, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Hart, Neil Walker, Russell Martin, Tyler Colvin, Erasmo Ramirez

I can therefore say one of two things. If I win this league perhaps my initial thoughts on players were wrong since I ended up going with my “backup” plan so often. If I finish in 10th place I’m going to blame others for taking “my guys.” A built in excuse already. Honestly, I can’t remember this happening to me so much. It should be noted as well that this was a “slow” draft conducted over days. It’s one thing to want a player in the heat of battle where there are seven minutes between selections. It’s totally another when you have seven hours between your picks to plan your strategy and then you lose the guy you were targeting. Getting snaked in this set up hurts even worse.

Just for the heck of it – beautiful women.

OVERALL THOUGHTS

As I noted in my initial pick-by-pick review, this team started out nails in the average column. After seven offensive selections my team could legitimately be looked at as a club that could hit .300. That cushion in the average category allowed me to take shots on guys like Saltalamacchia, Trumbo and Reynolds who aren’t going to do anything for me in the average department. However, that Trio of batters could go deep 80+ times fairly easily with health. That power allowed me to feel fine about guys like Revere, Fowler and Markakis being part of my club. I’m a big fan of the mix I’ve got on offense. The key for the squad will be how Youkilis/Reynolds and Ackley perform. If the two corner guys return to “normal” and Ackley shows just a little improvement, this offense is going to impress.

On the hill there are questions. Shields/Gallardo are an impressive top-2 (even if many would disagree). Lester/Haren/Marcum are a trio of risky selections cause of health and down performances last season, but that’s a lot of talent. I defy anyone to tell me that Shields/Gallardo/Lester/Haren couldn’t all be 180 strikeout guys, and let’s not forget about McDonald who could get there too. As I’ve noted many times as well, Marcum never gets the respect he should because of his constant time in the doctor’s office. Liriano’s DL stint at the start of the season will also allow me to add another hurler as soon as he is officially place on the disabled list, so I’ll get to add another potential hurler at that time (Joe Blanton, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard are all on my radar). As for the bullpen, I really like the skills there. Cishek is my only true “closer” to start the year, but as we saw last year when literally two-thirds of clubs ended up changing their 9th inning arms, it’s unwise to read too much into relievers roles at this point. Remember, do what I always preach – target the skills and not the roles. To that end Cishek, Jansen, Parnell and Robertson have elite skills. Elite. I’ll work the wire hard early in the year when the inevitable bullpen shenanigan’s start.

We’ll see how things go, but overall I’m a fan of how this team turned out, even if so many of the guys I had targeted ended up on other clubs.

Thanks to KFFL.com for the invite yet again.

For a PDF copy of the entire K-BAD-Results, click on the link.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part I, Rounds 1-14

For the fifth straight year I was invited to play in an expert’s league by the folks over at KFFL.com (you can click on the link to see how everyone else in the draft evaluated their own selections). Nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, the league pits 11 of the top minds in the game against one flunky (that would be your truly). I thought I would give my analysis of the team I was able to roster in the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league with 28 rounds (I had the third overall pick in the draft which was completed just wrapped up as the month of February came to a conclusion).

A little bit about the league and what to expect in the three part piece.

I’ll break down my draft, pick-by-pick. Part I will be a review of selections 1-14. In Part II I’ll review selections 15-28. Finally, in Part III, I’ll give an overview of the draft and share how my team worked out, where I missed out on players, and let you know if The Oracle made any mistakes (shockingly he made one glaring mistake).

12 teams, 28 rounds
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
9 pitchers: P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P
Bench: five spots

Round 1: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Miguel Cabrera, 3B
The most consistent hitter in the game. He lacks the speed of others taken at the top of most drafts, but he makes up for it with unmatched consistent excellence. I would never have taken Mike Trout here, so I was very pleased when this future HOFamer fell to me.

Round 2: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS
If a down year is 20/20, and that player qualifies at two positions, sign me up. HanRam has been a .250 hitter the past two years, and that’s obviously a significant issue, but his ability to contribute across the board while giving me flexibility is well worth drafting at this spot, though I was secretly pining for Dustin Pedroia who went one spot ahead of me.

Round 3: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Starlin Castro
I really wanted to take David Wright here. However, with a 3B (Cabrera) and another 3B eligible player (Hanley) already on my roster with my first two picks, I couldn’t justify locking up my corner infield spot this early with a third 3B eligible player.

Round 4: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Austin Jackson, OF
For the second time in three rounds the guy I wanted was taken one spot ahead of me (this time it was B.J. Upton who I also considered in the third round). At this point of the draft I wanted to get an athletic outfielder which I was able to accomplish.

Round 5: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Shin-Soo Choo, OF
I could have gone the route of Michael Bourn here, but there seem to be players falling much later with similar skills (Pierre, Revere types). In the 5th I went with another across the board talent in Choo who should thrive hitting in Great American Ballpark.

Round 6: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Martin Prado, 3B/OF
As I continue to pile up offense, I targeted a versatile hitter who qualifies at two spots. Prado’s a nice little hitter, and I know Howard Bender wanted him badly so why not take him. A .300 season with 10/15 and 100 runs seems possible.

Round 7: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Yadier Molina, C
You can make a legitimate case that my team, after seven picks, has to be looked at as a club that could hit .300. It’s not often you can say that. However, Molina was my third choice as the two players I had teed up – Hill and Bumgarner – went with the two selections before my spot came up.

Round 8: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: James Shields, SP
Others might be nervous with Shields as their top arm. I’m not. He’s about as stable as they come on the hill, get’s a lot of punchouts (8.82 per nine last year), and combines that skill with an increasing ground ball rate (52 percent in ’12).

Round 9: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Yovani Gallardo, SP
I was faced with a real toss up between the power arm and consistency of Gallardo, and the likely better ratios but less dominating arm that Johnny Cueto brings. Since Cueto is coming back from an injury, I went with Gallardo.

Round 10: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Nick Markakis, OF
Markakis is exactly the type of player I like to target. He’s consistently solid across the board, is a veteran, and his value is depressed since he’s coming off an injury plagued season. Many don’t know that per 162 games his 5×5 line is .295-18-85-89-9. I’ll gladly take that.

Round 11: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Mark Trumbo, OF/1B
He was amazing in the first half, then he was awful in the second. All told he hit 32 homers with 95 RBIs while batting .268. I’ll gladly take a repeat at this point of the draft from the dual position threat.

Round 12: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Dexter Fowler
Will he ever learn to hit on the road? His BABIP was league leading last year so the average might fall a tad from .300, but I think there could be a 20/20 season here.

Round 13: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Ben Revere, OF
Smart to take him with Juan Pierre and Coco Crisp still on the board? Probably not, but I’m a big fan of Revere’s speed game (turns out I was right and should have waited to draft Pierre rounds later).

Round 14: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Jon Lester, SP
I believe Lester will rebound in 2013. Here’s the reasons why.

I’ll continue my review in my next column by looking at selections from rounds 15-28.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Shortstop

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

2012 SHORTSTOP Top-10

1 Troy Tulowitzki
2 Jose Reyes
3 Hanley Ramirez
4 Elvis Andrus
5 Starlin Castro
6 Jimmy Rollins
7 Derek Jeter
8 Alexei Ramirez
9 Asdrubal Cabrera
10 Yunel Escobar

Tulowitzki appeared in 47 games, his first season of less than 101 in six years. Over the previous five seasons he average 134 games a campaign, meaning he has averaged missing a month a season before 2012. The production is amazing, but the risk simply too high to overlook.

Reyes came on in the second half and as a result his first season in Miami was right where it should have been as he posted a fantasy line of .287-11-57-86-40. Note the last time he stole 50 bases was 2008.

Ramirez hit 24 homers with 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 runs. Given that he also qualified at third base he was a strong play in 2012. Still, what happened to the perennial .300 hitter? Over his last 942 at-bats he has hit .252 with a poor .326 OBP (he batted .319 from 2007-10).

Andrus scored 85 runs for the third straight year while reaching career bests in doubles (31), triples (nine), RBIs (62), batting average (.286), OBP (.349) and SLG (.378). The only downer was a four year low of 21 steals, this after 3-straight seasons of at least 32 thefts.

Castro is just 22 years old, and he’s has been an impressive performer in his young career hitting .297. He’s also stolen 22 and 25 bases the past two years while scoring an average of 85 runs the past two campaigns. He also saw his homers (14) and RBIs (78) reach career bests in his third season. The guy’s attitude still makes me all kind of nervous though.

Rollins went 20/20 this year… from June 1st to the end of the season. That might be the most amazing number you will read in any of the position reviews. On the season he had 23 homers, 30 steals, 102 runs scored and 68 RBIs in yet another “Rollins-like” effort.

Jeter was just about used up according to most. At least I didn’t think that. Jeter went out and had 216 hits, the most in baseball, as he scored 99 times, hit 15 homers and knocked in 58 runners. He stole only nine bases, his first season of single digits ever, but he was once again an elite at the position.

Ramirez is as steady as pretty much any player in the game. He’s not elite at anything unfortunately, but always productive. He stole a career best 20 bases while driving in 73 runners, the second best mark of his career. However, he also hit only .265 with nine homers and 59 runs scored. At least he didn’t kill you.

From Cabrera’s Player Profile before the season. “Cabrera will steal double-digit bags, and his batting average will surpass the big league average… but in my opinion it would be foolish to bank on Cabrera matching his homer, RBI or SLG marks in 2012.” Cabrera hit .270, just three points off 2011, and he fell one bag short of my prediction with nine thefts. However, his HR total fell from 25 to 16, his RBI total from 92 to 68 and his SLG mark from .460 to .423.

Escobar hit .288-10-60-71 in 2008. In 2009 he went .299-14-76-89. In 2010 he dipped to .256-4-35-60. In 2011 he rebounded and hit .290-11-48-77. What did he do in 2012? Totally unexpected he reverted to his 2010 form with an awful season (.253-9-51-58).

Hit: Derek Jeter

Miss: Yunel Escobar, Ian Desmond (#16)
I knew Diamond could be something, but I had no idea he would be an absolute monster as one of the elites at the position (.292-25-73-72-21).

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 10, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

What do you do as a Tim Lincecum owner? I have him on 2 teams… extremely frustrated!
– @phillyflash19

This is a results driven game, I get that, but I keep preaching patience with Lincecum and hope that people heed my advice. Has Lincecum (2-3, 5.89 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) been a huge disappointment? 100 percent the answer is yes. At the same time, he is coming around, and there are a myriad of data points that support that contention. Though he allowed four runs in five innings Thursday night his fastball was routinely hitting 93 mph while his change up was darting all over the place. He struck out Matt Kemp three times. Five of the first six outs he recorded were by the strikeout. He had a solid night. On the season he’s been more up and down than a tugboat on the open seas. Still, over his last four starts he has a 3.13 ERA. That’s improvement. Now he’s still throwing too many pitches and walking far too many batters (5.9 per nine over his last four starts), but hang your hat on this. (1) His current 10.06 K/9 mark is better than his career average (9.87). (2) His 1.75 GB/FB rate would be a career best (career 1.40). (3) His 7.1 percent HR/F ratio is blow his career average (7.4 percent). (4) The first five years of his career his line drive rate was never higher than 20.8 percent. You really think he’s going to post a 26.0 percent mark for the season? Moreover, his BABIP is sitting at .349. The guy owns a career mark of .295 and has never surrendered a mark above .310 for a season. Think that is going to continue as well?

Brighter times are ahead for The Freak.

Ervin Santana or Ross Detwiler ROTW?
– @Sllab33

(ROTW = Rest of the Way)

Santana always allows homers but he’s been beaten around like a pinata at a seven year old’s birthday party this year. After allowing between 23-27 homers each of the past five years he’s already permitted 12 in seven outings. There’s no way that continues. Other than the homers, has he actually pitched that badly? If we turn to xFIP to help normalize that home run rate we find that Santana has a 4.10 ERA which would not only better his career xFIP mark of 4.29, it would also be the third best mark of his eight year career. He’s just not pitching as badly as his 1-6 record and 5.09 ERA would suggest. In fact, he’s working on a stretch of 3-straight “quality starts” in which he has lasted at least seven innings each outing while posting an ERA of 2.82. Heck, for the year his WHIP is 1.30 which is better than the marks of Jeremy Hellickson (1.31), Dan Haren (1.33) and Jon Lester (1.36).

Detwiler has stepped into the void created when Chien Ming Wang (hamstring) was injured. On the cusp of returning from that leg injury, the Nats have a decision to make – do they slot Wang back into the starting rotation as they planned to or send him to the bullpen because Detwiler has been so impressive with his 2.10 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over six starts?

I’d take Santana. Not only does he have the obvious historical advantage over Detwiler, the truth is, even if the fantasy numbers don’t show it right now, that Santana is a more highly skilled pitcher than the younger Nationals arm. Add into the mix the lurking presence of C-M Wang in Washington and that’s enough for me to prefer the Angels hurler.

12 team mixed roto keeper I get Mark Reynolds and Jose Tabata for Emilio Bonifacio. Advise please?
– @rogerchoate

Poor Mr. Reynolds. The guy has major holes in his game, there’s no way that I’m going to try and pull some hocus pocus to make you think otherwise, and when he’s slumping he’s about an ugly a batter as you could possibly have in your fantasy lineup. At the same time, and I keep telling everyone this, the past three years (2009-11) he is top-3 among third basemen in homers, RBI and runs scored. During those three years an “average” Reynolds season has led to 38 homers, 91 RBI and 87 runs scored. It’s a bumpy ride, but he always produces. I know he’s hitting .193 with two homers through 25 games, and that’s awful, but he has started to produce in May for those of you who haven’t noticed as he’s hit .350 with two homers, six RBI, a 1.300 OPS and he’s tossed in a steal in six games.

Tabata is a bit of an enigma. After bursting onto the scene as a rookie in 2010, his production has tanked. Hitting just .230 with one homer and 10 runs scored in 26 games this year, the frustration level is pretty high amongst Tabata owners. But let’s take a step back here. If we extrapolate Tabata’s lifetime production over 219 games into a 150 game season the numbers don’t look all that bad: .278-6-42-85-27. Given his age and his pedigree, I’m willing to write off his poor start this season at to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Bonifacio is a great fantasy weapon because of his versatility, but as I warned everyone all preseason, expecting him to hit .296 again, as he did last year, was a pretty tall order. Currently batting .238,  people need to realize that in over 1,500 big league at-bats that Emilio has hit a mere .266. We all know he has no power at all, just six homers in his career, and he has just two RBI this season to give him 91 in 443 career games. Oh sure he’ll steal plenty of bases, he has 15 this year in 31 games, but you’re paying a massive price for those steals right now given his utter lack of homers, RBI and batting average. If I’m being totally honest, an I always am, I’m not certain Bonifacio is actually capable of being an every day player in the big leagues.

This is an easy answer. Add the duo of Reynolds and Tabata and enjoy the bounty.

Trade Derek Jeter for Starling Castro?
– @jamespmack

I love it when the deals are simple. None of this 4-for-3 junk with draft picks and dollar amounts. Just down and dirty 1-for-1. Let’s compare them straight up.

Jeter: .388-5-15-23-1
Castro: .347-1-19-15-11

While Jeter has a substantial advantage in average, homers and runs scored, would it surprise you to learn that learn that in terms of fantasy value that Castro is the equal of Jeter? How is that possible? It’s all about the massive steal advantage that Castro has. So if they are equal right now in terms of their fantasy output, who do I want moving forward? Both players have huge pluses and significant minuses (right now at Fleaflicker Jeter is being slightly favored over Castro).

Jeter is a .314 career hitter who has failed to bat .300 the past two years. Even if we give him a .314 average this season to match his career rate, that means he will hit in the .290′s the rest of the way. Is that possible after he hit .270 and .297 the last two years? Certainly it is, but it just goes to the point that you should expect the “normal” 38 year old Jeter the rest of the way and not the out of control one we’ve seen so far. That includes a major step back in the homer category as I’m pretty sure he’s not going to hit 30 homers for the first time as he gets within shouting distance of his 40th b-day (Jeter hasn’t hit 20 homers since 2004). Jeter has also hit 20 steals only once in his last five years, and his total of one this season in 30 games might signal that even 15 could be pushing it this year.

Castro looks like a Jeter clone in many respects. All the 22 year old Castro does is hit, and over his 1,261 big league at bats we’re looking at a .308 hitter. He’s yet to show a power stroke with only 14 career homers, but this guy should develop into a 15-20 homer bat. He’s not likely to hit .347, but given his age and talent level there would appear to be little threat that he will be able to at least match Jeter the ROTW in batting average. The lack of power dings Castro’s run producing ability, but both men serve more as table setters than dynamic middle of the order thumpers anyway. The real key for Castro is will he continue to run at this rate? A speedster who stole on 10 bases as a rookie, Castro upped that mark to 22 last year. The Cubs have stated that they want to test defenses this year on the base paths, and that has led to Castro’s 11 thefts in 31 games putting him on pace to push 50 this season. Three points. (1) Fifty is a big number. Only one man reached it last season (Michael Bourn). (2) Is it reasonable to expect a guy who stole 32 bases in his first 283 games to push that mark to 50 in 162 contests? (3) Castro has 11 thefts and four caught stealing this year continuing his poor stolen base percentage rate. In his career Castro has stolen 43 bases in 64 attempts, a mere 67 percent success rate. Studies have shown that to be the break even point, and by that I mean that if a runner is under 67 percent with his steal success rate that he is actually hindering, versus helping, his teams ability to score runs. In essence, Castro is merely spinning his wheels on the base paths.

I’m often charged with being an ageist since I usually avoid youngsters for more established players. In this case I’m flipping that position on it’s ear and suggesting that you make this deal to add the youngster from Chicago.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Part III: Vegas, and the FSTA Draft

My three part series on Las Vegas wraps up today. In PART I thanks was given to many of the people in the industry an I explained some of the exploits that I was a part of over the weekend in Sin City. In PART II I took a look at the team I drafted for the FSTA Experts League that was covered live on air by SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Today I’ll finalize the week in Vegas by giving some thoughts on how the FSTA Draft played out.

For the full results click on FSTA 2012 Experts Draft.

Anthony Perri of Fantistics set the room on fire taking Troy Tulowitzki with the first overall pick. He’s a big believer in position scarcity and put his money where his mouth is. Tim Heaney of KFFL then took Albert Pujols second leaving my #1 guy, Matt Kemp, for Steve Gardner/Howard Kaman of USA Today to grab third overall.

I’d much rather have Prince Fielder at #13 than Adrian Gonzalez at #6.

The 21st overall selection was Mike Stanton. My question is this – should he be taken that high? If he hits .270 with 45 homers and 110 RBI that’s great, but unless he steals 15 bases I don’t think he returns this value, not with his batting average woes. Is he really any different than Adam Dunn in his heyday?

The first pitcher taken was Clayton Kershaw at #23. I don’t have a problem with him going off the board as the top pitcher, but you know me, I’m not a fan of taking a hurler this early.

The third round turned out to be the round of risk. Starlin Castro was taken and he’s dealing with that off the field issue with the ladies. Carl Crawford was taken there as well, and we learned about 13 hours after the draft was completed that Crawford had wrist surgery and that leaves him somewhat doubtful to be good to go on opening day. Another casualty of having a draft this early were Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf who took Victor Martinez in the third. Sixteen hours later we found out that he had a torn ACL that will likely end his season.

Per usual, the experts waited to draft starting pitching. Don’t plan on being able to take Felix Hernandez in the 5th round like Chris Liss of Rotowire did in your draft. CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels also went in the 5th round.

Craig Kimbrel was the first closer off the board. He was taken in the 8th round.

I like Vernon Wells as much as the next guy and can see a comeback this season, but taking him in the 9th round ahead of guys like Chris Young or Billy Butler, who were also taken in the 10th, I’m not a fan of that.

Ron Shandler, who knows this game as well as anyone, has a faith in Cory Leubke taking him ahead of guys like Shaun Marcum, Justin Masterson, Tim Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda etc.

I’m a fan of R.A. Dickey in the 29th round as long as he doesn’t kill himself climbing mountains this offseason.

The best pick of the draft or the worst? The answer to that question is likely to be Javier Vazquez who was taken in round 28 by Fantasy Sharks. If he retires it was a wasted pick, but if he somehow ends up on the hill this season this could be a difference making selection.

How the mighty have fallen. Francisco Liriano was taken in the 26th round. He’s well worth the risk at that point (he was my target for that round). Another perpetually injured an underachieving lefty is Erik Bedard. He was taken in the 22nd.

Justin Smoak in the 12th round? What does Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm know that we don’t? I don’t think anyone on his team is old enough to have a five o’clock shadow.

Everyone had a laptop out during the draft but myself and Charlie Wiegert if I’m not mistaken. Old school.

Todd Helton is a shell of his former self, but as a 27th round selection I’ve got no complaint at all.

Jason Bay in the 23rd round sounds absurdly low doesn’t it? He’s gotta be able to outperform that. His teammate, Daniel Murphy, went in the same round. I think that was an excellent selection.

Look at the team from Mastersball. It shows you what you can accomplish when you you take stable players early even if the names don’t jump off the page at you. You end up with a pretty solid squad.

Buster Posey went in the middle of the 6th round. If healthy he will surpass that cost. If he has any setbacks physically that’s gonna be a pick that Liss will be able to look at as one of the reasons his team struggled.

Adam Wainwright in the 8th round? If healthy we’ve seen what he can do, but coming back from Tommy John surgery you can’t be thinking he’s gonna throw 200-innings this year. I’d rather have 9th round guys like Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza and Madison Bumgarner. Hell, I’d rather have my first four arms.

Keeping the dream alive. Justin Morneau was taken in the 14th while Kendrys Morales went in round 19.

By Ray Flowers

Youngsters in the News

photo © 2011 Neon Tommy | more info (via: Wylio)

People get giddy when they are around greatness. They also loose their minds when they think they have a chance to be in on the ground floor of something big. That’s why all we’ve heard about lately is Brett Lawrie, Anthony Rizzo, Desmond Jennings and Dustin Ackley (I wrote about three of those guys in The Prospect Trinity). I’ve been preaching caution with the expectation train with those four players, and to illustrate how precarious the path to greatness is I thought I would discuss four second year players that are having varying degrees of success this season.

Starlin Castro is hitting .301, one point better than the .300 mark he attained as a rookie. However, after hitting .348 in April he has managed to post a mere .261 mark over his last 134 at-bats. As for his power stroke – it still is MIA. Castro is displaying no power with only one homer in 249 at-bats. So much for the power surge we saw in the post-season (I said he wouldn’t be able to keep that up to anyone that would listen). Castro hasn’t been able to translate his speed into stolen bases either as he has five steals on the year but only o-n-e since April 26th. I wrote about Castro back in February in Second Year Players and warned everyone not to overvalue a player who would likely only offer a boost in the batting average category. You didn’t listen did you?

Aroldis Chapman is struggling – big time. The guy might throw 100+ mph and illicit outright joy in fans who get to watch the radar gun with every blazing pitch, but the results just haven’t been there this season. In 13 innings with the Reds he walked an utterly amazing 20 batters leading to a 13.85 BB/9 mark and a 6.92 ERA. In 5.1 innings since he was sent down to “rehab” a shoulder injury (I’m not buying he is really hurt), Chapman has walked only three batters but he’s allowed 12 hits and 10 runs leading to a 16.88 ERA and 2.81 WHIP. The Reds have to get this guy “fixed,” but with the way he’s throwing right now they clearly aren’t even close to meeting that goal.

Jason Heyward is soft. That’s the prevailing thought amongst baseball people, and he did nothing to quiet that belief when he stated that he wouldn’t return to the field until his shoulder was 100 percent. Well, count Chipper Jones as a guy who thinks it’s time for the youngster to buck up. “I think where Jason might have erred was the comment that he made, ‘I’m not coming back until it doesn’t hurt anymore,” Jones said. “…there are a bunch of his teammates that are out there playing with discomfort and not healthy, and still going at it.” Heyward hasn’t played since May 21st, and what was supposed to be a relatively minor issue with his shoulder has now stretched on for a much greater length of time than anyone thought. When you’re being called out in the media by the greatest infielder in team history as Heyward is, it might be time to give yourself a long, hard look in the mirror. Hopefully Heyward will listen and do his best to get back out on the field.

Carlos Santana is hitting .227 and everyone is disappointed in the guy who was supposed to be the breakout star at the catchers position. However, there are plenty of reasons to turn that frown upside down. First, Santana is on pace for about 15 homers, a strong total for a catcher. He’s also on pace for 60 RBI and 60 runs scored. It may not sound like much, but 15-60-60 are totals that only Victor Martinez and Brian McCann matched last season at the catchers position. In addition, Santana has two more walks than strikeouts leading to a .361 OBP, a fantastic mark give his batting average. Trust me, you don’t walk more than you strike out and hit .227. He’s already turned things around the past two weeks as he’s hit .324 with nine RBI, thanks in part to a slight change in his batting stance (he eliminated a toe tap). Santana seems primed to still meet expectations this season.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 26, 2011

photo © 2010 Phil Roeder | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Hanley Ramirez got traded straight up for Starlin Castro. This is vetoable correct?
– @Dorman06

I hate vetoing deals. The reason is that sometimes a team would benefit from picking up a “lesser” player in a deal. If you need steals maybe it makes sense to trade Justin Upton for Michael Bourn, even if straight up the players aren’t equal. However, deals are never done in a vacuum, so unless the deal is horrifically one-sided the best course of action is usually to just let people stupidly make bad decisions and live with them. Actually, the best course of action to avoid this issue is simply to not allow trades. That way there is no funny business going on, but most people find such leagues to be boring.

In terms of this deal, I’m going to completely reverse course. This is one of those deals that simply must be vetoed. Wind back the clock four weeks. Hanley Ramirez didn’t fall out of the top-5 in any draft, no matter what the format and Castro was lucky if he was being taken in the top-100. In each of the last four seasons Hanley has been one of the top-10 fantasy performers in the game who has averaged a 5×5 line of .319-27-83-111-36. Those numbers are Hanley’s “average” effort the past four years. Even if Castro were to maintain his current pace (.357-1-11-16-3) over 150 games this season he would end up with a 5×5 line of .357-7-75-109-20. Castro will never hit .357, but even if he does he isn’t even on pace to match a “normal” effort from Ramirez.

In this case the deal should clearly be vetoed even if Hanley is currently batting .194 with no homers.

Closers. Pick two to keep and one to shop around – Brian Wilson, Jonathan Broxton, Francisco Cordero. Thoughts?
– @alistairjhogg

The problem with questions like this is the following – almost always the player or players you should keep are the ones that will bring the most value in a deal. Therefore, do you trade the “best” guy because he will bring the most in return or do you trade the inferior guys and get lesser players in return?

Wilson is the arm you have to keep. His 9.82 ERA is a total fluke as he’s had three poor outings. Wilson still has five saves in six chances and a strikeout per inning on the young season. He’s still working his way back to full health after being slowed by a side issue in spring, but you don’t trade the majors saves leader from the past three years (127, five more than K-Rod), unless you get a huge return.

Cordero gets saves, he’s had at least 34 in each of the past four years, but his K-rate continues to plummet. After posting a 12.22 mark in 2007 we’ve seen it dip to 9.98, 7.83, 7.31 and 7.00 this season. Given that he’s walking 4.00 batters per nine this year which would be a 4th straight year of least four, you need to realize that the end is coming. Sooner or later a pitching line like that will catch up to you.

Broxton has struggled. His fastball is three mph down from where it was in 2009 (97.8), and that is a big concern. Even more concerning is his current 6.97 K/9 mark. I have to think that is a sample size thing though – he’s never been below 10.54 per nine in his career. Even more disconcerting is his 6.10 BB/9 mark. Unless you’re Carlos Marmol you cannot have success issuing that many free passes. At the same time Broxton is still generating a solid 1.56 GB/FB mark, and there is no way in the world that batters will continue to square him up this well all year (he’s allowing a 34.3 percent line drive).

Keep Wilson and Broxton. If you tried to trade the Dodger right now you likely wouldn’t get much for him anyway as people would be fixated on his ERA (4.35) and WHIP (1.84).

Should I drop Ervin Santana for Scott Baker?
– @zaktraut

It’s so funny. It’s like people have all of a sudden discovered Baker as I’m literally getting 20 questions a day about him on Twitter. Just to prove that I’m not Johnny Come Lately with Baker, I’d point you to a piece I wrote last year in October titled Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought in which I suggested that everyone keep an eye on Baker in 2011. Baker has always had the skills to be an elite level performer, but he has never been able to put it all together. Will he be able to this year? That remains to be seen, but it cannot be argued that he is off to a fantastic start (3.24 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 3.00 K/BB ).

Santana has been one of those odd every year performer (look at his win totals the last five years – 16, 7, 16, 8, 17). However, he posted a four year low in his K/9 rate (6.83) last year, continued to give up his fair share of long balls (1.09 per nine) and was hit pretty hard with a 22.1 percent line drive rate. This year he’s upped the K-rate to 7.71 while dropping his walk rate way down to 2.20 per nine, but the outward results are poor (he’s 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA). Clearly he has pitched better than the results this season. Let’s compare the two righties by looking at their career numbers.

S. Baker: 4.29 ERA,, 1.27 WHIP, 7.12 K/9, 3.36 K/BB, 0.76 GB/FB, 1.19 HR/9
Santana: 4.43 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.22 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.86 GB/FB, 1.15 HR/9

I want Baker even with the career numbers showing the matchup to be a toss up. I’ve said it before. One of these years it’s all going to come together for Baker and when it does, watch out.

Would you drop Matt Thornton or Sean Burnett for Ryan Franklin?
– @JSam85

I’ve written and talked about this many times, and I always say the same thing – give me skills over role and eventually I’ll come out ahead. With the massive changes we’ve already witnessed in the 9th inning this year, I wrote about this situation in The Closer Conundrum, it’s never been more obvious to me that my position is the right one. It may not always result in saves or me winning a league, but in the long run I’ll come out ahead more times than not, especially since we have no idea what managers will do in the 9th inning.

ROLE: Right now the pitcher to own would appear to be Burnett. Drew Storen is coming hard and appears to have pretty much locked down the 9th inning job with the Nationals, but Burnett figures to at least get some work in the 9th. Thornton was so bad early on that he’s likely nowhere near the 9th for the Sox, and with Mitchell Boggs looking strong, I wouldn’t expect to see Franklin closing games any time soon.

SKILLS: You may not want to hear it given his horrible start, but the best pitcher of this group in terms of skills is Thornton, and it’s not even up for an argument. Let’s look at each hurlers numbers since the start of the 2009 season.

Burnett: 7.68 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, 6.78 H/9, 10.38 BR/9
Franklin: 5.98 K/9, 2.41 K/BB, 7.86 H/9, 10.75 BR/9
Thornton: 11.28 K/9, 3.98 K/BB, 7.15 H/9, 10.18 BR/9

Are you going to let 6.2 innings of poor work from Thornton wipe out three fantastic seasons (from 2007-10, amongst hurlers who tossed 200-innings Thornton was 2nd in base runners per nine innings, fourth in K/9, sixth in ERA and ninth in K/BB)? I’m not. I have no idea who will be the most valuable fantasy performer, the answer to that depends totally on whether or not each hurler’s manager allows them to pitch the 9th inning, so give me the pitcher with the best skill set – Thornton, and leave Ryan Franklin alone.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

Around the Horn: April8, 2011

(1) How imminent are the injury returns of Zack Greinke, Jake Peavy and Domonic Brown?

(2) Are the Red Sox in panic mode already? It seems like they might be.

(3) How good is Starlin Castro at just 21 years old?

(4) How out of control is Derek Lowe? Is he “breaking out?”

(5) Can Willie Bloomquist continue his torrid pace?

By Ray Flowers