2011 Player Capsules: Second Base, Shortstop

I love it. The response has been overwhelming, and I want to thank you all for your support and kind words.  I’m borderline ecstatic at the response I’ve received, but at the same time I’m sending so many of these files back to everyone that I needed to come up with a better plan moving forward. Hence, I’m going to be combing positions up the middle in order to cut down on the emails I’ll need to send out. I need time to go out to find the love of my life people.

In case you’ve missed it so far, here is how this all works.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a neat and tidy PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position that is under discussion for that day.

How does that sound to you?

The best part? How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE.

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

SECOND BASE / SHORTSTOP

Here are a few examples of what you will receive in the PDF.

Stephen Drew
For the first time Drew hit double-digits in steals, and the results was one of four efforts last year in which a player had double-digit homers, doubles, triples and steals at the position. Drew has never taken the next step to fantasy stardom, but if you add together his best yearly totals you end up with a 5×5 line of .291-21-67-91-10. Who wouldn’t take that from their shortstop?

Grant Green
Green should one day be a star in the big leagues. The A’s watched him destroy High-A pitching last year to the tun of a .318-20-87-107-9 line with about the only complaint being 117 strikeouts. Given that he finished his career with the sixth highest batting average in USC history, that’s hardly a surprise. He should only be rostered in keeper leagues at this point.

Brandon Phillips
Even in a down year he was just a couple of homers and four steals from a 4th straight 20/20 season. Moreover, Phillips has averaged 21 homers and 24 steals in his five seasons with the Reds. His batting average is rarely impressive, he owns a .267 career mark, but his ability to produce homers and steals is unparallelled at the position the past five seasons.

The Middle Infielder code is: Have Glove, Will Travel

By Ray Flowers

The Value of Jeter

Everyone says Derek Jeter stinks. His range is down, as is his production at the plate, and as a result it seems like everyone, even the New York faithful, have turned on the future Hall of Fame shortstop. What are my thoughts on Jeter including his 2011 fantasy prospects? Before I get to that, let’s review the current situation.

The Negotiations

(1) Jeter is a 36 year old free agent.

(2) The Yankees have offered Jeter a 3-year, $45 million contract.

(3) Jeter apparently wants $23-24 million a year for at least four years. He wouldn’t mind five or six though.

(4) GM Brian Cashman basically told the press that if Jeter doesn’t like the offer he was given he can take his act on the road and try to convince someone else to give him more money.

I will admit that it does seem very odd that Jeter thinks he should get $20 million a year since he is 36 years old, but don’t forget three salient factors, in the form of current Yankees’ players, that are likely weighing on his mind.

A.J. Burnett: This righty, coming off the worst season of his career, will make $16.5 million a year for each of the next three years.

Jorge Posada: The 39 year old catcher/DH will make $13.1 million this year, not a had chunk of change for a guy who will turn 40 during the season and one that has 551 at-bats the past two years.

Alex Rodriguez: He will be 36 in July. Here are his contract totals the next seven years – $31 million, $29 million, $28 million, $25 million, $21 million, $20 million, $20 million.

It’s a difficult hard to fault Jeter for asking what he is when Arod will be making $20 million a year when he is 42 years old, especially considering what Jeter means to the Yankees franchise.

2011 Fantasy Outlook

Jeter is coming off his worst full season since, well, ever. He produced his lowest batting average (.270), tied his career-low in homers (10), had his worst OBP ever (.340) and saw his slugging percentage drop to a laughable level (.370) leading to an OPS of .710, some .127 points below his career mark. So all hope is lost right? Not so fast…

Jeter, hitting atop a loaded Yankees lineup, scored 111 runs. That total not only lead all shortstops, it was tied for fourth best in all of baseball.

Jeter knocked in 67 runs, only nine less than Hanley Ramirez and six more than Stephen Drew.

Jeter stole 18 bases, only four less than Rafael Furcal and one more than Jimmy Rollins.

Add it all up and Jeter had 10 homers, 67 RBI, 111 runs and 18 steals. Do you know how many shortstops in baseball reached all of those figures? Obviously the answer is none because he led shortstops in runs. How about this one – how many players in baseball went 10-65-110-15? The answer is three: Carl Crawford, Carlos Gonzalez and Mr. Jeter.

There are still concerns with Jeter.

He struck out 16.0 percent of the time, a 4-year high. I t was still below his 16.9 percent career mark though.

His line drive rate fell to 16.1 percent. Given that he owns a 20.2 percent mark, and that he had never been below 17.9 percent in a season, I’m gonna give him the benefit of the doubt here.

Still, there are issues.

(1) As a result of the loss in the LD-rate, his BABIP mark was just .307, .049 points below his career mark.

(2) Always a ground ball machine, his GB-rate went through the roof as he posted a 65.7 percent mark in 2010. That’s only a good thing if you are Michael Bourn. If you are Derek Jeter, does it signal that you have lost bat speed resulting in an increasing number of feeble ground balls – and another reason why that line drive rate of his tanked?

So how do I view Jeter in 2011 as a fantasy shortstop? I’m buying. We all know Jeter will return to the Yankees despite all the recent garbage, and I expect he will once again hit at the top of the lineup. Give him a little bit of a bounce back in the batting average category, and a continuation of the rest of his performance, and Jeter is solidly in the top-8 amongst shortstops (see Top-10 SS for 2011), and one that might come at more of a discount than he should since everyone seems to think he is washed up.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Gods Draft

I’m asked to participate in a few “experts” leagues draft each year, and this year was no different. One of those leagues that I was asked to enter was a 12-team, mixed league auction that drafted the other night. Here are the participants in The Battle of the Fantasy Gods Draft.

Mike Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Tony Cincotta – Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Greco – Fantasy Pros 911
Grey Albright – Razzball
Ryan Hallam – Fighting Chance Fantasy
Scott Swanay – Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Ray Flowers – FanBall

* Note. Each team had $260 dollars to spend to field a traditional lineup of 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT) and nine pitchers. There was no reserve draft held, so each team was only comprised of the 23 men drafted, and therefore every player selected will obviously be in the active lineup.

I entered the draft playing on spending $180 on hitting and $80 on pitching. I also planned on being patient as people sometimes blow their wads early.

Here is how my team turned out.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach ($3), Yadier Molina ($3)
I probably overpaid for Shoppach who I grabbed early, but he brings enough power to be useful. Molina is better than you think, and a safe play in batting average.

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($35)
One of two big ticket items. Cabrera is about as steady as they come. He and Albert Pujols are the only two men in the game to have hit .290-25-100 in each of the past six seasons.

Second Base: Brian Roberts ($20)
Love this guy, and he was the last of the top tier second basemen to go. Roberts is the only player in baseball history to have 3-straight efforts of 100-runs, 30-steals and 40-doubles

Third Base: Michael Young ($9)
I think this was one of the best bargains of the draft. Doesn’t have the traditional third base pop, but he owns a .302 career average, has scored 80 runs in six of seven seasons, and knocked in 80 runs 5-straight years before falling to 68 last year as injury struck.

Shortstop: Stephen Drew ($7)
Drew is one of just four shortstops to have 10 homers, 65 RBI and 70 runs the past two seasons.

Middle/Corner Infield: Howie Kendrick ($8), Lance Berkman ($18)
Kendrick will hit .300 in his sleep. If he finally makes it out there for 500 at-bats, he could swipe 15 bags while going deep 15 times. Berkman had a down season last year, mostly because of injury. If you give him another 100 plate appearances to reach his normal level, he would have been right at 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($29), Shane Victorino ($15), Alfonso Soriano ($10), Jason Kubel ($8), Johnny Damon ($5)
Ellsbury is a beast and has as good a chance as anyone to lead the league in steals. Victorino does everything well, and has been money the past three years. Soriano is a risk, no doubt, but with health 30 homers still seems doable. Kubel is a safe choice. He’ll likely regress a bit from last season’s numbers, but should still be solid. And I have no idea why no one loves Johnny Damon – not only in real life but also in the fantasy game.

Utility: Vlad Guerrero ($1)
Got my guy here. Drafted him really late when others were low on cash. With the Rangers I really think he could still hit .300 with 25 homers, totals he had reached 11-straight years before last season.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan ($16), Josh Beckett ($16), Brian Wilson ($12), James Shields ($10), Scott Baker ($9), Tim Hudson ($8), Chad Qualls ($8), Max Scherzer ($5), Matt Thornton ($3)
Beckett is an ace. In each of the past three seasons he has posted a K/9 rate of at least 8.43 while keeping his WHIP under 1.20. He is the only AL hurler who can make that claim. Shields, Baker and Hudson could all win 15 games with solid ratios, and I think they form a great base behind Beckett. As for Scherzer, he just might be the most dominating hurler of the bunch if he can ever learn to throw strikes. Nathan and Wilson should get me 75 saves. The Qualls selection caused some to snicker, but he could save 30 if healthy. After all, he led baseball with a 6.43 K/BB ratio last year. Thornton may not get saves, but he will provide ratio help, strikeout a ton of batters, and could move into the closers role if/when Bobby Jenks is traded.

Total: Hitting $171, Pitching $87 (I was left with $2).

I darn near hit my pre-draft goals in terms of spending, and put together a strong team. I was especially pleased with my pitching staff considering how long I waited to jump into that mix for starters. Still, are you wondering why I had $2 left over? Let me tell you a story.

I had targeted Vlad for my UT spot late, and I had that spot and one final OF spot open with $11 left. I tried to draft Corey Hart and Nate McLouth, but both times the bidding went to $10. I could have paid that amount, but then (a) I wouldn’t have been able to get Vlad (there is no way anyone could have known he would go for a dollar), and (b) I HATE having $1 players. It’s not like they can’t be productive players, in fact they are often the most productive given how cheaply they come on draft day, but the problem is you have no say in who it ends up being. Think about it. All someone needs is $2 and they can lock you out of the bidding on that player. I want to be able to dictate who is on my team, not be stuck with a player no one else thinks is worth a dollar bid.

In the end I feel good about the club. I will need Damon/Soriano/Guerrero to come through on offense, but given their illustrious track records, I feel pretty strongly that they will. The pitching staff is also a solid group who I would go to battle with in any mixed league.

So there it is. Wish me luck as I battle all year long with the “Gods” of fantasy baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Down the Stretch: Shortstop

I was thinking about what to write about today, and a couple of stories revolving around shortstops caught my fancy so I just decided to make it a theme and stick with the position for all my comments today.

Jose Reyes took BP on Monday. Since he plays for the Mets that is about as exciting as it would be for you or I to walk out to pick the paper up in the morning to find that it was in the hand of Brooklyn Decker. I never really wanted to visit New York before.

Marco Scutaro may have played his last game because of a heel injury. There are two schools of thought as the club awaits the results of the MRI. Here is what his manager, Cito Gaston said. “I’m pretty sure that he’s probably not going to play the rest of the season.” Of course, that isn’t the way that Scutaro is looking at it. “As soon as I feel good, I’m going to play,” Scutaro said. “If it feels good, I just want to play.” The hope is that there was just scar tissue breaking loose in the heel. If that is the case, he could be back in a few days. If it’s more serious he could be looking at surgery or in the least a few weeks healing doing absolutely nothing. As a Scutaro owner, I certainly hope that he shocks everyone and returns to the field, and soon. Yes, I’m being greedy since he has set career-highs in just about every conceivable category including average (.282), homers (12), RBI (60 tied with 60 last year), runs (100), steals (14), OBP (.379) and OPS (.789). Yeah, that’s a career year folks. Think of this. Scutaro was my 30th round draft pick in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, literally the 436 player off the board and he, and as of this writing he has:

Hit for a higher average than Alexei Ramirez (.279).
Had more homers than Johnny Peralta (11).
Knocked in more runners than Stephen Drew.
Stole more bases than Orlando Cabrera (13)
Scored more runs than Jimmy Rollins (90).

Think about that the next time you throw out some inconsequently name at the end of your draft. Every pick counts, so make sure you view them that way (Scutaro was our target in the 29th round, but we figured, correctly, that he would fall back to us in round 30).

Here are the leaders at the shortstop position over the past 30 days.

AVG: Troy Tulowitzki turned around a horrible start to the season and has flashed a strong finishing kick with a .351 average over the past 30 days.
HR: Juan Uribe leads the position with seven home runs. He qualifies at second and third in most leagues and has been one hell of an option late in the year.

RBI: Uribe also leads the position with 19 RBI, in addition to pacing the position with a SLG (.652) and a OPS (1.044). Yeah, he has been scorching.

Runs: Derek Jeter scored 20 runs in his 27 games to lead the way. Rafael Furcal is second with 19 runs while Cliff Pennington has 18. By the way, Pennington is also hitting .306 with 11 RBI in his 28 games, so if he is still there on waivers, and you need some middle infield help, he is worth adding for the final two weeks.

SB: Everth Cabrera and Scutaro with six. That’s right, Scutaro produced 43 percent of his year steal total in the last 30 days.

So there it is. I’ll try to hit some of the other positions over the next couple of weeks as the season winds down because, you know me, I’ll do anything I can to avoid talking about football each day (j/k).

By Ray Flowers