Pitching: What Goes Up, Might Go Down

It’s all about pitching today. We’ll discuss the always injured Nationals’ ace, a 300 lbs, 57 year old starter on the west coast, a rebounding ace from Philly, and a dynamic rookie with the Cardinals.

STRASBURG FAILS TO LAUNCH

Stephen Strasburg is on the DL with a lat issue. He said he was fine. The team said he was fine. We all knew he wasn’t fine and that he would end up on the DL, right? Facts are facts, and there are a bunch of them in an article I wrote earlier this week titled The Strasburg Dilemma. Adding to what I wrote there I think it’s about time we admit the following.

(1) Strasburg cannot be trusted to make 30 starts. He’s never done that, or thrown 160 innings, in any season of his life.

(2) It’s unabashedly foolish to draft Strasburg in the top-25 overall as many did this season, and it’s similarly crazy to make him your SP1 in the fantasy game. I don’t care how talented he is, you cannot trust him to take the ball every five days. Even when he does the Nationals micromanage him so much that it diminishes his fantasy outlook substantially.

Can we move on now?

COLON OUT OF CONTROL

Bartolo Colon has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. Colon is 7-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.09 WHIP for the Athletics. Some facts. (1) The last time Colon threw 165 innings was 2005. Were you even playing fantasy baseball then? (2) The last time Colon had an ERA under 3.40 was 2002. (3) The last time he had a WHIP under 1.20 was 2005. (4) Colon has a 5.35 K/9 mark. That’s a batter an a half below his career rate and would be the second worst mark of his career (he had a 4.95 mark in 2006 when he tossed only 56.1 innings). (5) He’s walked six batters in 12 starts. Six. Since the 1950 season there have only been two seasons with a pitcher posting a BB/9 mark under 0.70 (Carlos Silva 0.43 in 2005 and Bret Saberhagen 0.66 in 1994). Colon’s current mark is also fifty percent of the lowest mark he’s ever posted. Good luck with that continuing.

How are people evaluating pitchers over at Fleaflicker.com?

HAMELS REBOUNDING?

Cole Hamels allowed one run, walked one and struck out 11 in a victory over the Marlins Wednesday. He’s 2-9 with a 4.56 ERA, and that has people freaking out. I don’t think you should be. Here’s why. (1) Hamels has a 8.56 K/9 mark. That’s one hundredth over his career mark. (2) His control has returned. Hamels has walked two batters over his last three starts and four in five outings. That run of success has dropped his walk rate back down below three at 2.89. That mark would still be a seven year high, but it’s finally under control. (3) His 1.18 GB/FB ratio is two hundredths better than his career mark. Right on par. (4) His HR/F ratio is 13.1. That would be a career worst but it’s an acceptable number given his career rate of 11.6 percent. (5) His BABIP is .294, right in line with his career .282 mark. The results haven’t been there according to his ERA and record, but you had better be buying on him quick before his owner realizes the old Hamels is back (ditto Matt Cain who you should all be buying).

READER COMMENT

Dresselrebel – Shelby Miller actually has been thoroughly studly all season. All of his numbers and ratios support this. 10 starts. All were quality. Sub 2.00 ERA. Sub 1.00 WHIP. A K per IP. Should be universally owned and started. That is all.

Of course Miller should be owned and started in all leagues. I never said otherwise. Still, let’s be clear here. Saying Miller should be starting in every league every time he takes the hill is totally different than saying he will be able to keep up this pace and should be looked at as an SP1 in fantasy baseball.

Rookie pitchers since 1950 who have thrown at least 160 innings…

No rookie has had a season with an ERA below 2.05 (Stan Bahnsen in 1968). Miller is at 1.82.

Only one rookie has had a WHIP below 1.00 (Dick Hughes 0.95 in 1967). Miller is at 0.98.

Only eight rookies have bettered Miller’s 9.35 K/9 mark.

NO rookie has bettered his 4.24 K/BB ratio.

NO rookie has ever bettered his 84.1 left on base percentage.

So are you ready to say that Miller is a lock to have one of the three greatest rookie pitching seasons in over 60 years? I think it’s foolish to make that claim after 11 starts.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Barry Zito

The Giants won the World Championship, my thoughts can be found in Nirvana… Again, and Barry Zito was a huge part of that run to greatness. After being left off the roster in the 2010 World Series, Zito proved his mettle by throwing two dominating games against the Cardinals in the NLCS (7.2 IP, 0 ER) and the Tigers in the World Series (5.2 IP, 1 ER). This came on the heels of a season in which he won 15 games for the G-men. Is he back to being someone to target in mixed leagues?

Barry Zito won 12 games in 2010-11. He was also limited to 53.2 innings in 2011, the only time since his rookie season that he has failed to throw 180 innings in a campaign. Those facts, not to mention that he hadn’t been a pitcher anyone could count on in the fantasy game since 2006, led to Zito being on the majority of waiver-wire’s at the start of the 2012 season. However, he blazed it up out of the gates with a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his first four starts on his way to his most successful season as a Giants’ hurler. I already noted that he won 15 games, more than noted names like Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, Mat Latos and Jordan Zimmerman. Heck, he won as many games as Stephen Strasburg. Does that mean that Zito is back to being someone to think about on draft day? Not really (you didn’t really think I was going to say something else, did you?).

For the fourth straight season Zito posted an ERA over 4.00. It shouldn’t be a shock given that his poor work with the Giants has ballooned his ERA to 3.93 for his career, so that 4.15 mark from last season is right in line with what expectations should be. There’s no reason to expect improvement here. This is just the type of pitcher that Zito is at this point of his career. It should also be noted that his xFIP of 4.92 was a 4-year high, and as we continue our look at Zito it will become obvious why that is.

The major league average for WHIP in 2012 was 1.31. Barry Zito had a 1.39 mark in 2012. Moreover, the last time he posted a mark as low as 1.31 was 2005. That’s an awful long time ago to not even be average. There is no reason to think his performance will improve in 2013 in this category either.

Zito struck out 5.57 batters per nine innings in 2012, a full batter below his career 6.64 mark. The 6.64 mark is bad, about a batter below the league average (7.56 in 2012), and that 5.57 mark? You know that is horrible. Does Zito augment that low strikeout total with a strong walk rate? Hardly. His 3.42 per nine mark in 2012 was a 10 year best, and it was worse than the league average of 3.05 in 2012. The resulting 1.63 K/BB ratio of Zito was only slightly off the 1.79 mark he is saddled with for his career, and both marks are pathetically low. When you combine a terrible K mark, a bad BB mark and an average 1.02 GB/FB ratio, the results are usually an average effort. And that’s what we got from Zito – we got an average pitcher who was fortunate in the win-loss column (Zito didn’t lose any of his last 14 starts, including the playoffs with his last “L” coming on August 2nd). There is no way he’ll be able to keep up that winning streak in 2013.

Give Barry Zito full kudos for coming through down the stretch an into the playoffs for the Giants. His outing against the Cardinals is cited by many around the teams as the turnaround that propelled the Giants to their second World Championship in three seasons. On the other side of that glorious finish is the fact that Barry Zito is about as boring a pitcher as there is in the fantasy game. Don’t let the name or the finish fool you into thinking anything else. If you’re in a 12 team mixed league in 2013 don’t even bother thinking about Zito on draft day, and if you are in an NL-only league he’s still nothing more than a late round roster filler because he eats up innings and has a chance at wins.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Starting Pitchers: Misses

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

Cliff Lee (#3): He “missed,” but through no fault of his own. Lee won six games. S I X. Lee had a 3.16 ERA, the 15th best mark in baseball. Lee was the only pitcher in baseball with an ERA under 3.75 who failed to win at least 10 games. Lee also posted a 1.11 WHIP, the 10th best mark in the game. Lee also punched out 207 batters, the 10th best mark in baseball. Add in his 7.39 K/BB ratio, the best in baseball, and you have an elite hurler who was saddled by terrible support from his team.

Roy Halladay (#4): Failing to make 30 starts for the first time since 2004, Halladay had his first disappointing season since that year. Given his draft day cost 11 wins, a 4.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 156.1 innings was a massive disappointment. Not only did he fail to throw 220 innings for the first time since 2005, he also had his lowest win total since ’04, his first ERA over 3.75 since 2004, and his worst WHIP in five years. It’s fair to wonder if the 35 year old will ever be dominant again.

Tim Lincecum (#6): Awful. I wanted to leave him off the list, to just ignore what happened, but of course I couldn’t. His ERA (5.18) was two runs above normal, and his K total was a five year low, though he still struck out more than a batter an inning with 190 in 186 innings. At least he wasn’t awful in the second half (3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 86 Ks in 89.1 innings).

Jon Lester (#12): A rock for four years, that facade crumbled in 2012. Lester won only nine games after 4-straight 15 win seasons. He posted a 4.82 ERA after 4-straight years under 3.50. He posted a 1.38 WHIP, his highest mark in five years. He struck out 166 batters, his lowest total in four years. A letdown from a guy that seemed like such rock solid option on draft day.

Ricky Romero (#17): Just plain awful. See Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft.

Josh Beckett (#18): Won only seven games, lost a career worst 14, and saw his ERA bulge to 4.65. Beckett, who had struck out eight batters per nine in each of the past five seasons, didn’t even rack up seven per nine with a 6.97 mark, and the resulting 2.54 K/BB ratio was his worst mark since 2006. There’s no way around it – Beckett was a terrible disappointment.

Tommy Hanson (#23): He won a 4-year best 13 games while tossing 174.2 innings. He also basically matched his career mark with an 8.30 K/9 rate. However, he lost 10 games, saw his ERA soar to 4.48, and his WHIP ballooned to 1.45. Clearly his shoulder wasn’t at 100 percent, and it’s fair to be concerned about his outlook moving forward if he truly has lost three mph off his heater.

Stephen Strasburg (#30): He won 15 games, struck out 197 batters, posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He was spectacular. If only he had made four more starts…

Ubaldo Jimenez (#34): He’s never coming “back.” The first half version of 2010 was never going to return – he’s not the second coming of Bob Gibson – and at this point it’s fair to wonder if Ubaldo is even worth counting on at all in mixed leagues. Not only did he strike batters out at a career worst 7.28 per nine his walks exploded to a career worst 4.84. The resulting 1.51 K/BB ratio is really the only number you will need to focus on with Ubaldo – it signifies doom.

Johnny Cueto (#45): I admit it. I was wrong about Cueto. I wanted to see another year with strong work given that his 2011 effort was such an outlier compared to his performance over his first thee major league seasons. Consider Cueto to have definitively answered that call. Cueto is in line for NL CY Young consideration thanks to 19 wins, a 2.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 170 Ks in a career best 217 innings.

Jake Peavy (#72): I didn’t think he, or Johan Santana, could do it. Santana failed as I expected (6-9, 4.85 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 117 innings), but Peavy was a fantasy star, especially given his draft day cost as Peavy went only 11-12, but he threw 219 innings with a 3.37 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The ERA was his best mark since 2008, the WHIP his best since 2007, and 2012 was the first time that he pitched more than 120 innings in four years.

R.A. Dickey (#78): Oh come on, everyone missed on Dickey. Look back at your preseason guides and I think you’ll find my ranking was as favorable as most. Dickey had surgery on his abdominal tear and should be fine by opening day, so it’s not a real worry. Dickey won 20 games, was second in the NL in ERA (2.73) and first in strikeouts (230). A simply remakrbale season for a hurler who depends on a “trick” pitch almost exclusive. It might have been the most dominating season in the history of the game for a knuckleballer.

Jarrod Parker (#109): He won 13 games as a rookie with a 3.47 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the course of 181.1 innings. It was a great season by any measure. He was saddled with a 26 percent line drive rate, an incredibly high mark, or his effort might even have been a wee bit better.

By Ray Flowers

Tuesday Tips

Whether your fantasy baseball league is an AL-only, NL-only, mixed league or keeper league, there’s something for you in today’s piece. Promise.

Dylan Bundy, the Orioles uber-prospect who was chosen #4 overall in last years draft leading to him being named the #10 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, has started out his professional career as if he has no intention of spending much time in the minors. Through five starts in A-Ball he’s walked two batters in 17 innings while he has allowed one hit. That’s three base runners in 17 innings leading to a 0.18 WHIP. He’s also fanned 25 batters and not allowed a run. Time to move him up a level already Orioles?

Zack Cozart is hitting a solid .271 for the season, but that’s likely a disappointment to his owners since he was hitting .342 ten games into the season. Like I said all preseason, and into the season when he was tearing it up, Cozart isn’t at a point in his development when he should be expected to perform at all-star levels. After his recent downturn in production at the dish Cozart is on pace to hit .271 with seven homers, 30 RBI and seven steals. Hate to tell you I told you so but…

Anyone out there realize that Adrian Gonzalez hit .271 with two homers an a .737 OPS in April? As I wrote three weeks ago in Panic In The Streets, AGone hit only one homer last April before finishing the year with 27 bombs so it’s certainly not panic time. However, he did hit .314 with a .836 OPS in a better first stanza to the season last year. For his career his April has led to a .288 batting average and .856 OPS with the OPS being the second lowest of any month from April through September. If you’ve read my stuff you know my thoughts on Gonzalez, but the guy has hit 29 homers in 181 games as a Red Sox. Are you ready to finally admit that I was right back in January of last year when I warned that Adrian may not produce huge homer totals playing half his games at Fenway Park? See ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez.

Billy Hamilton of the Reds might be the fastest man in the sport. Rated the 48th best prospect in the game coming into the 2012 season by Baseball America, Hamilton stole 103 bases last year as a 20 year old in Single-A ball. This season he’s off to a stupendous, and that isn’t a term I throw around lightly, pace with the bat as he’s hit .398 through 23 games at High-A ball. But what about the speed you say? Try this on for size. In those 23 games Hamilton has stolen 29 bases to give him 132 steals in his last 158 games. He isn’t likely to appear in the bigs this season, but dynasty leaguers you had better be aware of a guy who plays shortstop who owns the skills of Vince Coleman.

At this point, meaning when I wrote this piece, there are two greatly differing reports on the health of Evan Longoria. One report suggests he has a hamstring or knee situation that may or may not result in him being placed on the DL. The other reports suggests that it’s a hamstring issue that could keep him out for 6-8 weeks. As a Longoria owner I almost upchucked my breakfast this morning when I heard the 6-8 week line of though. Let’s hope that the report was premature and that Longoria will be back in a relatively short period of time cause losing Longo for two months would be a devastating blow to his fantasy squads.

Jed Lowrie is hitting .297 and here we go again. I’m getting questions about people in mixed leagues who really want to add him to the mix. I’ll repeat the same thing I’ve been saying for two years – he’s not that good. For his career his slash line is completely big league average at .256/.328/.409. He’s also stolen only four bases in his career and per 140 games he’s a 12 homer bat. Yippee doodle. It should also be noted that though Lowrie has hit .304 in the month of April in his career that his May-October batting average is .243.

Stephen Strasburg has been as dominating as any pitcher in baseball with a 1.13 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 34 Ks in 32 innings to start the 2012 season. The most amazing part of his effort though may be this: Strasburg has allowed 22 hits in his 32 innings, and the breakdown is 20 singles, two doubles, zero triples and zero home runs. That’s two extra base hits in 32 innings folks. Wow.

By Ray Flowers

Early Season Standouts

For some reason my fantasy baseball article today deals with players whose names all start with an “S” or lower in the alphabet. It wasn’t a plan mind you, I don’t have some deviously delectable ulterior motive, it just worked out that way. How about that?

Hector Santiago is the closer for the White Sox, a move that I didn’t understand at the time it appeared to be taking shape (see Lunacy in Chicago?). Less than two weeks in the experiment has been a success, but still, it hasn’t been smooth sailing. Santiago is three for four in converting saves but he blew his last outing and has allowed three runs over his last three innings. Even worse, the guy has already been taken yard three times in four innings on the season. He is still the White Sox arm to own if you are looking for saves, but tread carefully here cause this story is not yet ready to be made into a Hallmark Movie of the Week.

Stephen Strasburg flat out dominates hitters. Period. A prime example of this fact is that over his last 50.1 innings no one has elevated a pitching into the seats. On the negative side, everyone was weary of Strasburg because of the 160 IP limit he was placed on. Well, turns out, the 160 IP limit was completely a media driven number. The team never actually said they would limit Stephen to 160 innings. From Big League Stew over at Yahoo:

“Look, the media put (the 160-innings limit) out there, not me.” Nat’s GM Mike Rizzo said. “It probably comes from what Jordan Zimmerman pitched last year… “I don’t have a specific pitch count in my mind, a specific innings count in my mind… when we feel he’s had enough, we’re going to shut him down.”

What all of that means is that Strasburg isn’t likely to throw 200-innings this year but there also isn’t an artificial floor of 160-innings for him this season either.

B.J. Upton is finally close to a return. He was supposed to only miss a couple of days after running into Desmond Jennings, but that “couple of days” has stretched out to weeks. He went 2-for-4 Monday night and will likely appear in two more minor league games before being activated to return to the lineup on Friday against the Twins. Now might be your last chance to acquire him on the cheap. Speaking of Jennings, he does have four hits the last two days, though that has only brought up his slash line to the following levels: .250/.333/.300. I’m not going to condemn or exalt any player based on 10 games, but this is not exactly the start that Jennings owners were hoping for. In addition to that terrible slash line Jennings has also failed to go deep and he has a whopping 12Ks.

Chase Utley (knee) is improving according to the latest report from Phillies GM Ruben Amaro. Here’s the quote. “His strength seems to be improving,” Amaro said. “He’s moving forward.” Uh Ruben, what the hell does that mean? I’m improving from yesterday too since I got a good nights sleep. The Phillies continue to be, lets just say difficult, when it comes to updates with Utley. It almost feels like they are guarding the secrets to cold fusion.

Matt Wieters went bananas Monday night with three hits to raise his average to .344. Two of the hits were homers, and he also plated five runners, leaving him with four homers and nine RBI through nine games (how is he only owned in 82 percent of leagues over at Fleaflicker?). This is the type of production everyone thought was possible when he was taken 55th overall in the 2007 draft. It’s very early, but it’s possible that we’re finally witnessing the emergence of a supremely gifted talent who could, if everything breaks right, end the year as the most valuable catcher in the fantasy game.

I’ve long been a fan of Chris Young. Not the broken down hurler but the dynamic outfielder of the D’backs. Ranked #25 in the BBGuys Preseason Draft Guide in the outfield, he’s been a top-25 overall player in the early going. In point of fact, Young has been a top-5 overall performer thanks to a .405 average, five homers, seven RBI and two steals. Despite all that greatness the most amazing part of his early season heroics might be his BB/K ratio of 1.20. It won’t hold up, he’s never had a mark above 0.58, but his ratio has improved for 4-straight seasons showing the type of growth that is indicative of a player who could bust loose for a monster season.

By Ray Flowers

Punting Categories – A Good Idea?

People ask me all the time, ‘Ray, do you believe in punting?‘ My response, after some sarcastic remark about disliking the use of any kind of kicker in football, is that I do not believe in “punting” in fantasy baseball. What is “punting” and why am I against it?

By the way, how amazing would it be, after that lead in, if I didn’t even bother to address “punting?” Sometimes I just get this feisty feeling that comes over me an I feel like rebelling. Maybe that’s why my brother’s wife calls me sassy. Luckily for you, today isn’t one of those days.

What is “Punting?”

“Punting” a category means that you simply give it up (most often people refer to the saves category when they talk about punting). The idea is that a category, let’s take saves for example, can be pretty costly to add to a squad on draft day, and there is a lot of turnover at the position each year. Why not just skip worrying about saves and just try to rack up points in the other four pitching categories? People also talk about punting steals on offense, but the fact is you can “punt” any category if you really wanted to. The bottom line is that when you “punt” a category you simply do not worry at all about it, in essence eliminating it from consideration as a category you’re going to try score points in.

Is Punting a Viable Strategy?

Let’s break the strategy down using a concrete example that everyone can understand.

Let’s assume we’re talking about a 12 team mixed league.

In general, you need to accrue about 80 percent of the available point total to win a league. Given that there are 10 categories in the standard setup, this means a maximum point total for a 12 team league would be 120 points (10 categories, 12 points for first place finish in each, 11 for a second, 10 for a third etc.). If the league maximum is 120 points, and we’re targeting 80 percent of that number as the level we will likely need to achieve in order to win the league, then we will need our hypothetical team to record at least 96 points (obviously there are leagues where you might need 100 or more points to emerge the victor). Therefore, we have nine remaining categories – remember we are “punting” one of them –  to earn 95 points (you get one point for finishing in last spot). Ninety-five divided by nine is 10.6, meaning we’re going to need to finish no lower than third place across the board in order to get to 96 points, but in reality we’re going to have to finish first or second in every other category. Can a team do that? Of course it can, but you also have to realize that by removing a category you’ve significantly reduced your margin for error. To state it again. We need 96 points in our model. We have only nine categories that we are targeting. Let’s say in one of our nine categories our team finishes in 7th spot. That would leave us with six points in that category. With our remaining eight categories we would need 89 points. That’s 11.1 points per category meaning we would have to nearly finish in first place in all other eight categories to win the league. Is it possible to win this way? Yes it is. But doesn’t it seem inherently risky?

I haven’t addressed a major component of this strategy that will have to work in order for you to win a league.

Will you select the right players to build your team around?

Last year if you had Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford and Stephen Strasburg as three of your anchors you would have been feeling pretty good about your team, right? By the end of the season you likely were puking if those were three of your building blocks. Will injury strike? Will players perform to expected levels? Are your expectations/projections for players accurate to begin with? Sometimes you can do everything right with your analysis and the players, for whatever reason, simply don’t perform. If you cut out a 10th of your playing field by removing an entire category, you’re cutting down the available pool that you are shooting to add points in. If you do that, you had better hope that your players perform up to par, or it could be a very long season.

Can you win a league “punting” a category? You certainly can. However, you had better be damn sure about the players you roster because you greatly increase your risk by completely ignoring an entire category in the fantasy game.

Did you get your copy of the BBGuys 2012 Draft Guide?

By Ray Flowers

Holiday Dealing

Everyone who knows me is aware of my fondness for the holiday season. My love affair for all things celebratory starts off with the dark and mysterious Halloween season. After a brief respite filled with turkey and gravy (my brother’s a chef so it’s always a wonderful meal for Thanksgiving), the season moves to snowmen, elves and Santa Claus. I know his is a baseball blog, an I promise to include some baseball in this post (Carlos Beltran and Gio Gonzalez will be dealt with), but I also wanted to point out a few interesting tidbits about the holiday season before getting to the hardball.

The actual date that Jesus was born is not known.

Christmas celebrations likely began in the late 3rd century.

German decedents apparently brought the Christmas tree to north America. At first they were just small trees that often rested on tables.

We can thank the Irish for bringing Christmas lights.

Santa Claus has a much richer history than you might think. Was he a real person? Click on the History Channel link for a video discussing the evolution of the bearded one.

ATHLETICS DEAL GONZALEZ

The A’s are blowing up their team yet again dealing their top two arms this offseason in Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill (I broke down Cahill in his PLAYER PROFILE), and reports suggest they still might move Andrew Bailey as well. Jeez, when will it end in Oakland as all they do is trade “young veterans” for younger players year after year.

Athletics: A.J. Cole, Tom Milone, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock
Nationals: Gio Gonzalez

The Nats get one of the best young lefties in baseball, a fact I mentioned in Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings. Gio has won 31 games, posted a 3.17 ERA and averaged 184 strikeouts a year the past two seasons. He leaves one of the better pitching yards in the American League for a slightly more offensive ballyard, but the move to the NL should negate that. Will Gio improve upon where he is right now? Maybe not (walks continue to be an issue). Even so, he remains a dominating left-handed starting pitcher, and there just aren’t that many to go around.

As for the Athletics, this could turn out to be one of the greatest deals the team has ever made. Of course, there is no assurance that prospects will ever develop into the stars scouts project them to be, but there is no disputing that the Athletics raided the cupboard of the Nationals. The Nats kept their top-2 prospects – Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon – but the A’s got the #2 and #3 youngsters in Peacock and Cole. Baseball America also listed Norris, a power hitting catcher with a big bat, as the 9th best player in the Nats organization. As for Milone, all he did was go 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA, 155 Ks and just 16 walks, sixteen, in 148.1 innings at Triple-A. For more on the foursome here’s the Nationals Minor League report from noted minor league expert John Sickels.

The Nationals get a huge lefty arm to pair with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, and they clearly win this deal, in a landslide, in the short term. If we check back in two years though, this deal could be seen as the building block of another Athletics’ dynasty. Time will tell.

CARDINALS SIGN BELTRAN

After losing the great Albert Pujols, the Cardinals did the best thing they could by signing the second best bat available on the free agent market (Prince Fielder was far too expensive for the team to consider). Carlos Beltran signed a two year deal for $26 million. It’s a strong salary for Beltran and the two year commitment shields the Cards if Beltran develops more physical issues. Beltran no longer runs, he has just seven steals the past two years, but he can still hit as evidenced by his .300-22-84-78 line with the Mets and Giants last year. However, he’s no spring chicken, he’ll be 35 in April, and he did appear in just 81 and 64 games in 2009-2010 because of continued issues with his lower half. If he can stay healthy the next two years it’s certainly possible that he could repeat the numbers he posted last season, but it was still wise for the Cards not to sign him for more than a couple of seasons.

Happy Holidays to all… and to all a good night.

By Ray Flowers

Heading to the AFL

For the second time in three years I’ll be heading to the Arizona Fall League to peep out some of the future stars in the game. If I’m not mistaken, the AFL is in their 20th season of giving you ball players one last chance to impress scouts and the front office of the teams they play for before shutting things down for the season. If you want to check out the league and see who all is playing in Arizona this year, here’s a link to the AFL’s homepage.

I’ll also be treated to a chance to watch the best of the best this season at the AFL Rising Stars Game (you can see full rosters by clicking on the link). There are five of the top-50 MLB Prospects in the game, with the lead dog being Bryce Harper who I will get to see for the first time (let’s hope he plays and doesn’t pull a Stephen Strasburg who was pulled from the outing he was supposed to make the last time I was down in Arizona). In addition to Harper I’ll also get a chance to eyeball Mike Trout, Wil Myers, Nick Franklin and Matt Dominguez (I’ve already seen Trout in person as I caught a game of his in Baltimore this summer).

While some of the prospects in the league will never live up to expectations, there’s a good chance that some of the players I see play this weekend will be future stars in the big leagues. Twenty-right of the players in the Rising Stars game in 2009 appeared in the big leagues in 2010, while the 2010 Rising Stars game produced 24 players who saw time in the big leagues in 2011.

Don’t forget to tune into SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio over the weekend either (Sirius210, XM87). On Friday from 3-5 PM Arizona time, Kyle Elfrink and your truly will be broadcasting the XFL Experts Draft which will be held at the First Pitch Forums in Arizona hosted by Baseball HQ. On Saturday Kyle and I will be broadcasting from the Surprise Stadium, the site of the Rising Stars Game (our broadcast will begin at 4 PM local time). We hope to get a chance to speak to a couple of scouts, maybe a GM or two as well, and possibly even conduct some on the field interviews with some of the young guns themselves. It should be quite a weekend.

I hope you all tune in to listen to the festivities, and don’t forget to have a beer on me while listening to the weekend’s broadcasts.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September23, 2011

(1) Leo Nunez not actually Leo Nunez?

(2) All Michael Young does is hit, hit, hit.

(3) Pablo Sandoval proving 2010 was a fluke.

(4) Can Matt Kemp actually win the NL Triple Crown?

(5) Ryan Howard ready to return from ankle injury.

(6) Matt Moore dominates the Yankees. Is he the next Stephen Strasburg?

By Ray Flowers

Down the Stretch

Matt Moore has been called up by the Rays. If you don’t know who he is, here’s a little crash course. Moore is a 22 year old, left handed starting pitcher for the Rays. He owns a fastball that can hit 94 mph, but it’s his curveball, roundly regarded as the best in all of minor league baseball (he explains how he throws it in this video), that leads to his dominating strikeout totals. Moore made 18 starts in Double-A this season before taking the hill for nine starts in Triple-A. The results were astounding.

12-3, 1.92 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 12.19 K/9

That’s right, the lefty struck out more than 12 batters per nine. Even if that number comes down by 25 percent in the bigs we’re still talking about a strikeout per inning arm.

Don’t go overboard with expectations this season. He’s going to start by working out of the pen, and though there is some hope that he will make a start on September 21st, it’s not certain that he will make any starts for the Rays this season. Next year? This kid has the talent to be the left-handed, AL version of Stephen Strasburg, he honestly could make that big of an impact. Be ready to pay dearly on draft day if you’re planning on acquiring his services.

Albert Pujols watch. He’s dealing with a sprained ankle, but he’s pushed his season line up to .297-34-89-93. The guy is simply amazing.

Mike Stanton did not suffer a setback with his injured hammy, but Marlins’ manager Jack McKeon pulled Stanton from a start Saturday because the slugger simply cannot run. “I can’t put him out there if that’s the fastest he can run,” McKeon said. I’d suggest extreme caution when deciding what to do with Stanton. Personally, I wouldn’t take the risk on the slugger who has 32 homers and 81 RBI unless I simply didn’t have any other options.

Troy Tulowitzki (hip) might miss both games of the mini series with the Brewers this week. Terrible timing for those of you in the fantasy playoffs. If you need a fill in, how about Marco Scutaro of the Red Sox. Why you ask? Because he has been killing it of late with multi hit games in five of his last seven outings. In fact, he has 14 hits in his last seven games while he’s knocked in 11 runs.

Look who is suddenly hot. B.J. Upton may only be hitting .232 on the year, but he’s gone 20/20 (20 homers and 27 steals), and he’s pushed his RBI total up to 71. In his last seven games Upton has knocked two long balls, including a grand slam, on his way to 10 RBI and 12 hits. The recent hot streak has upped his average from .220 up to .232. It’s still a terrible number, and it’s looking like he’ll finish the year with a third straight season hitting less than .242, but Upton still has value for his counting stat production.

Chase Utley (concussion) isn’t likely to return until later this week. He passed his first neurological test, and the team has set up one more for him to work through before he gets back out on the field. Luckily for the Phils they have the luxury of taking their time with Utley since they have a 12 game lead over the Braves. Utley is hitting only .262 on the year and if you give him 550 at-bats at his current level of production we’d be looking at a season of 16 homers, 65 RBI, 79 runs and 21 steals. That’s a far cry from what we are used to seeing from Chase.

By Ray Flowers