(1) Albert Pujols on cusp of history – yet again.
(2) Stephen Strasburg phenomenal in his first start with Nats.
(3) V-Mart mighty impressive, minus the homers.
(4) Ian Kinsler trying to do something only one other 2B has ever done.
(5) Alex Rios – worth a play in the month of September?
By Ray Flowers
Just when you thought it was safe to back into the water — that was a tag line from the movie Jaws, a timeless classic about a rogue great white shark with a taste for human flesh (it’s still a great flick after all these years). In a similar vein, just when you thought it was safe to give up on the slumping Andre Ethier — he goes out outs together a modest 4-game hitting that includes six hits, three runs, a homer, and five RBI over his last two outings. His production has been as unsteady as a boat in the high seas as he hit .385 in April, just .244 in August, and has hit a mere .221 with one homer in 140 at-bats against lefties. Still, with a solid final month of health he could hit .300 with 70 RBI and 80 runs scored, so it hasn’t been a total washout (he’s hitting .294 with 56 RBI and 65 runs scored).
How good is Roy Halladay? Not only does he have 6-straight years of 16 victories and twice as many wins (185) as loses (91) in his career, but he’s a consistency beast. In 2010 he had a 2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .245 BAA. In 2011 those numbers are 2.47, 1.04 and .243. You have copious amounts of success when you post a 7.30 and 7.64 K/BB ratio (his marks in 2010 and 2011). In case you were wondering, Halladay’s worst monthly ERA was 3.00 in May, and his worst WHIP total was his 1.17 mark from the just finished month of August. Felix Hernandez, one of the best pitchers in the game, has season long marks of 3.37 and 1.20.
Justin Morneau is suffering some minor concussion related symptoms so he is going to be shut down for a few days. I wish the guy all the best because the man has been beat down by injury over the past year. Over his 68 games played this season he’s batting .227 with four homers and 30 RBI and a .618 OPS.
Sergio Santos has been dynamic for the White Sox this year to help stabilize a bullpen that was disastrous at the start of the year. Santos has a 12.68 K/9 mark, has allowed only three homers over 54.2 innings, and has converted 28 of 32 save chances. He’s also allowed just one run over his last 17 outings.
Tim Stauffer gave up seven runs while recording only five outs Tuesday. Blowups like that happen on occasion, but the truly amazing part of his outing is that he gave up all those runs while allowing one measly hit. How is that possible you say? Well, he walked seven batters (as an aside, what kind of manager leaves his pitcher in the game to walk seven batters?). Stauffer walked in a run when Hiroki Kuroda was issued a free pass. That finally got Stauffer removed from the game. Luckily for Timbo, Anthony Bass came into the game and allowed a salami (three of the runs were Stauffer’s).Tim’s ERA went from 3.42 to 3.76 with the outing.
Stephen Strasburg will make his triumphant comeback from Tommy John surgery when he takes the hill for the Nats on September 6th. Strasburg should have success right away, his stuff is simply too good not to, but avoid getting too far ahead of yourself. He’s dominated in the minors with 25 Ks and just three walks in 14.1 innings, and his fastball is sitting regularly at 96 mph, but he’s still yet to throw 75 pitches in a minor league outing. That sounds an awful lot like he will be a five inning pitcher to me for the rest of this season.
By Ray Flowers
Do the Braves have the best lefty-righty duo in modern big league history out of the bullpen?
Craig Kimbrel is up to 39 saves, the highest total in baseball. Kimbrel is also sporting a 14.51 K/9 mark and that mark would be the 7th best mark in the history of baseball for any pitcher who has tossed 60 innings in a season. Kimbrel has allowed eight hits in his last 16.2 innings and on the year he is holding batters to a .174 BAA. Oh yeah, his last blown save was on June 8th (he’s converted 21-straight chances).
Jonny Venters has even better ratios with a 1.11 ERA an a 0.94 WHIP. He’s also struck out more than a batter per inning 0 79 in 72.2 innings – and he’s given up only one long ball on the year (he’s given up only two in his career of 155.2 innings). Why only one homer allowed? Look at that INSANE ground ball rate of 74.8 percent. That’s nearly impossible to sustain, though after last years 68.4 percent mark Venters is starting to look like a guy who might be able to maintain that phenomenal rate. Oh, and good luck getting a hit off him as he’s even better in terms of batting average against with a .156 mark.
Just how good is the duo this season? I’m going to add their numbers together and then compare it to some of the ace starting pitchers in the league. Prepare to be shocked. Kimbrel/Venters would be in the NL Cy Young award talk if they posted these numbers as a starting pitcher.
Braves duo: 13-3, 1.40 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 11.97 K/9, 3.27 K/BB in 135.1 IP
Josh Beckett: 10-5, 2.46 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 3.43 K/BB in 157 IP
Roy Halladay: 15-5, 2.56 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 7.91 K/BB in 189.2 IP
Cole Hamels: 13-7, 2.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.11 K/9, 4.43 K/BB in 172 IP
Clayton Kershaw: 15-5, 2.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.75 K/9, 4.33 K/BB in 183.2 IP
Justin Verlander: 18-5, 2.31 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9.06 K/9, 4.86 K/BB in 202.2 IP
Jered Weaver: 14-6, 2.10 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 7.55 K/9, 3.76 K/BB in 188.1 IP
See what I’m saying about Kimbrel/Venters being elite? If you get a chance to watch the duo work the 8th and 9th innings do yourself a favor and do it. Pull up a chair, crack open a beer, and watch why Braves’ game are done after seven innings – you simply aren’t going to score against this duo.
RANDOM MUSINGS – Stephen Strasburg
Don’t get too excited about Stephen Strasburg. If he has any kind of physical hiccup the Nationals will shut him down, an in his next minor league outing he’ll be limited to 65 pitches. Strasburg will likely be really good when he’s on the hill, but I’m thinking he’s a five inning type the ROTW, so don’t go overboard with your expectations for 2011. Also, for those of you in keeper leagues, look at how the Nationals handled Jordan Zimmerman this season if you want to know what to expect from Strasburg next year. That’s right, I’m thinking 160 innings for SS next year, so factor that in to your 2012 rankings.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Albert Pujols to play through hand injury.
(2) Troy Tulowitzki to play through pinkie injury.
(3) Stephen Strasburg – what should you expect from him?
(4) Jason Heyward still on bench.
(5) Paul Goldschmidt hits first big league homer.
(6) Yunieksy Bentancourt on fire – what?
(7) Josh Tomlin working on historic run.
By Ray Flowers
You asked at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, and your wish is my command.
Give Ubaldo Jimenez, get Jay Bruce – thoughts?
– @alistairjhogg
Ah, the case of Jay Bruce strikes again.
Bruce, the talented outfielder for the Reds, runs as hot as Jennifer Aniston in Horrible Bosses and as cold as a snake whose heat lamp has blown a bulb. Bruce was arguably the best batter in baseball in May hitting .342 with 12 homers, 33 RBI and 23 runs scored on the month (28 games). However, over his other 64 games played this year he’s hit only nine homers, knocked in 24 runs, scored 29 times and hit .,227. Yikes is right. Regardless of the nausea inducing ride, Bruce is still on pace to hit 35 homers with 97 RBI, 88 runs and 10 steals and that is some serious production. However, you take the risk of adding the “ugly” Bruce – there’s no guarantee that Jennifer Aniston is going to com and frolic for you, so there’s certain risk in adding the schizophrenic outfielder.
Ubaldo has had a renaissance of late. Over his last nine outings he had gone 5-3, but it’s his ratios that really sparkle. Over his last 59.2 innings Jimenez has a 2.56 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and a superb 4.15 K/BB ratio. He’s completely locked in for the Rockies. As a result of his recent hot streak his numbers this season compare quite nicely to his career numbers.
2011: 8.08 K/9, 3.51 BB/9, 1.39 GB/FB, 0.65 HR/9, 1.31 WHIP, 3.59 xFIP
Career: 8.09 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, 1.60 GB/FB, 0.57 HR/9, 1.27 WHIP, 3.83 xFIP
With the way that Ubaldo is locked in right now, and the guessing game you have to play with Bruce, I’d side with Ubaldo in this comparison.
Is it time to move on from Justin Smoak?
– @pied1
Simply put if you’re in a 10 or 12 team mixed league, the answer is yes. If you’re in a 15 team mixed league though, the answer is much more open ended because of his current struggles (obviously the homers, 12, and RBI, 43, make him a viable AL-only option even with his batting average in the dumps at .227).
After hitting .284 in April with a .920 OPS, it has been all downhill for Smoak. His run total, RBI total, batting average and OBP have declined each subsequent month since April. Moreover, since the calender flipped to May, Smoak has appeared in 64 games with a slash line of .209/.301/.372. He has hit a home run every 29.25 ABs in that time, but given that the league average slash line this season is .255/.322/.399 you can easily determine that Smoak, as a first base option, has been a huge drag on your team if he’s been in your lineup. Would I move on from Smoak in a mixed league? For certain I would. In fact, I’m so down on the guy right now, relative to the mashers at first base, that I didn’t even list him in my top-20 at first in my Rest of the Way Rankings for Hitters.
In a 13 team league 5 x 5 roto, would you stash Stephen Strasburg as keeper for 25th round pick?
– @Kossdaboss7
Word out of Washington is that Strasburg’s recovery from Tommy John surgery is going so well that he might appear in the big leagues in the month of September. Regardless of whether or not that comes to fruition, there is near 100 percent certainty that he will be back to full strength on Opening Day 2012.
Does that mean you should keep him at the cost of a 25th round selection? The answer to that is an unqualified yes. Reasonable expectations should set the upper bar at 160-innings for Strasburg next year, that’s how many innings the Nats are going to limiting their other young Tommy John survivor – Jordan Zimmerman – to this year. Still, 160 innings is plenty good enough for you to siphon off 25th round value from Strasburg. Though Strasburg only has 68 big league innings under his belt, let’s use his performance in that time as a baseline for expectations. Let’s further postulate that he returns 75 percent of his 2010 performance. What would that net you? How about a 3.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.14 K/9 and a 4.05 K/BB ratio. If he were to do that over 160 innings he would still more than warrant a 25th round protection.
Who is better to roster assuming they take over the closer role for their team due to trade – Mike Adams or Mike Dunn?
– @slappzilla
The rumor mill suggests that Heath Bell will be dealt out of San Diego with the assumption being that Adams will take over as the closer.
The rumor mill suggests that Leo Nunez will be dealt out of Florida with the assumption being that Dunn could take over as the closer.
However, both situations are hairy. Not only are we making decisions based upon supposition, there are issues with both replacement arms. While Adams would certainly be the first choice to take over in San Diego, the same reports that suggest that Bell will be moved are also saying that Adams is available for the right price. If Adams is dealt it seems quite possible that he could remain in a setup role. As for Dunn, there has been no official mention of who the favorite would be to take over in the 9th inning with names like Edward Mujica and Randy Choate also in the mix (and don’t forget about Steve Cishek).
So who would I suggest adding? I’m gonna say you go with the pitcher with the best skills (remember the motto, go for skills vs. role). Dunn has a nice arm with a 10.64 K/9 rate in his career, but that 6.52 BB/9 mark might even make Carlos Marmol blush. It’s damn near impossible to count on a guy who can’t throw strikes. As for Adams, here are his rankings amongst all pitchers who have thrown at least 125 innings since the start of the 2009 season:
1st in ERA (1.35)
1st in base runners per nine (7.67)
1st in hits per nine (5.22)
14th in K/BB (4.00).
Give me Mr. Adams who is, flat out, one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball when healthy.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.
Prior to the completion of the 2010 regular season, I gave a quick run down of the main candidates for the major baseball awards in Early Award Returns. Never one to rest with a cursory look into any topic, I thought it would be a worthwhile venture to explore each of the major awards in a more in-depth manner. With that, here are my thoughts on the 2010 AL MVP.
To see the previous articles in the series click on the following link:
NL Rookie of the Year Discussion
John Axford: The best rookie closer in the NL. Still he only saved 24 games, and that total isn’t impressive enough to win the award in this loaded field. His ratios were solid – 2.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP – and his K-rate was sublime (11.79 per nine).
Madison Bumgarner: Pitching well beyond his 21 years of age, Bumgarner is a huge young man (6’4″, 215 lbs) who possess the demeanor of a champion (think Kevin Brown). He only made 18 starts so he had no shot at the award, but to go 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and a 3.31 K/BB mark in the heat of a pennant race when you are barely old enough to drink – this guy’s gonna be a big-time player.
Starlin Castro: The Cubs shortstop hit .300 with 10 steals over 125 games, but he also slumped at the end of the season hitting just .232 over his last 33 games. He also committed a whopping 27 errors. He was amazingly good for a guy who doesn’t turn 21 until March.
Ike Davis: Considering all the pressure he was under in New York, Davis had a pretty darn impressive first effort. He needs to work on making contact, his 138 Ks in 523 at-bats is a poor mark, but he hit a passable .264 while stroking 19 long balls with 71 RBI and 73 runs scored. That production was one more homer, and one fewer RBI, than a certain outfielder from the Braves that causes everyone to drool.
Jaime Garcia: The best rookie pitcher in the league because of his ability to do what the other didn’t, and that is to rack up innings. Garcia was shut down early when the Cardinals realized they had nothing to play for (he tossed 163.1 innings), but you cannot ignore a 13-8 record and a 2.70 ERA. His WHIP was a bit high at 1.32 and his K/BB was merely average at 2.06, but it was still a fine rookie campaign.
Gaby Sanchez: A lot better than you think he was, Sanchez may have slumped late to end the year at .273, but he still powered 19 homers while knocking in 85 runs. Sanchez also scored 72 times while slapping 37 doubles for the Marlins. He won’t win the award, but he had an excellent season.
Stephen Strasburg: Twelve of the best starts ever for any pitcher to begin his career. Unfortunately Tommy John surgery was needed to fix a bum elbow. Still, he went 5-3 with a 12.18 K/9 mark and a 5.41 K/BB rate. Toss in a 2.91 ERA an a 1.07 WHIP and you begin to understand just how historically good he was for a first year hurler.
But we all know this race is about two men: Jason Heyward and Buster Posey. Let’s just get right to the numbers.
Heyward: .277/.393/.456
B. Posey: .305/.357/..505
Most know that Posey had the better batting average, but how many realized he also had a better OPS (.862 to .849)?
Heyward: 18 homers, 72 RBI, 83 runs
B. Posey: 18 homers, 67 RBI, 58 runs
Heyward comes out ahead, but he also appeared in 34 more games. If Posey maintained his pace over the 520 at-bats that Heyward had he would have had 23 homers, 86 RBI and 74 runs.
Heyward: 6.47 RC/27, .175 ISO, .363 SECA
B. Posey: 6.18 RC/27, .200 ISO, .268 SECA
Heyward clearly has the advantage here.
Heyward: Right Field
B. Posey: Catcher
To me, the batting numbers are close enough between the top-2 options that the fact that Posey is a catcher makes all the difference. Don’t overlook the fact that Posey also batted cleanup for the Giants as the team was totally transformed from virtually the moment he was called up to the big leagues.
9- Madison Bumgarner
8- Stephen Strasburg
7- John Axford
6- Starlin Castro
5- Ike Davis
4- Gaby Sanchez
3- Jaime Garcia
2- Jason Heyward
1- Buster Posey
By Ray Flowers
The mighty has fallen. It may not be as depressing as the fact that the house you bought for $300,000 dollars two years ago might sell for $225,000 today, but in fantasy circles the loss was just as severe. Stephen Strasburg suffered a substantially torn ulnar collateral ligament, and what that means is that there is an exceedingly high probability that he will undergo Tommy John surgery. I already wrote about the ramifications of this situation in Five Questions: Is Strasburg Finished?, but I wanted to expand on something I only briefly mentioned in that piece – and that is the way that organizations baby their pitchers. Is there any benefit to this recent practice?
It has become a comical situation really. Teams are so worried about protecting their investments that they treat them as if they were made out of paper mache. In fact, the level of injury in today’s pitcher seems to be much higher than it was in years past despite the advent of advanced physical training and medical proficiency. How is it that guys who are bigger, stronger, more reliably trained, and more closely watched than ever before break down more quickly than at any point in the past? I just don’t get it.
In the case of the Nationals, the team counted everything Strasburg did with the attention of an auditor from the government who is trying to extract every penny from your wallet. They never let him toss more than 99 pitches in a big league game, and only twice was he allowed to log even seven innings in an outing. A lot of good that all that monitoring did for Mr. Strasburg.
At the other end of the spectrum we have his teammate, Livan Hernandez, who has never missed a buffet in his life – yet he continues to roll on basically injury free. Listed as 35 years old, he might actually be 40 for all we know, Livan continues to rack up innings year after year, and he’s now 11 innings from 13th straight season of at least 180-innings. Is Livan simply gifted with a “rubber” arm? Was he genetically predisposed to never have a serious arm problem? Has he avoided injury because his career average for a fastball is a mere 85 mph? I mean after all, Strasburg’s average change-up this season was 89.7 mph.
I have no idea what the answers are to these questions. All I know is that time after time we are smacked in the face by the fact that even though we think we have it figured out, we actually have no clue.
Strasburg had his innings pitched totals limited – almost obnoxiously so. Strasburg had hid pitch total managed fastidiously as well. Yet here we are with a torn tendon and the inevitable surgery.
Perhaps the truth is that human beings simply aren’t meant to throw a baseball over an over again at such speeds. There were hurlers in the past who could rush it up there in the high 90′s, guys like Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Nolan Ryan and J.R. Richard obviously come to mind, but there is no disputing the fact that today there are more pitchers than ever capable of tossing the old ball at speeds in excess of 95 mph. As training methods have improved, pitchers are able to get more out of their body than ever before, but perhaps we’ve gotten to the point that we have taxed the human body so excessively that sooner or later, like a taught rubber band, there will be an inevitable snap back.
If you ask me here is the simply truth – each man has a certain amount of bullets in his gun. It doesn’t matter if he stands 5’11″ or 6’6″, it doesn’t matter if he weighs 165 or 250 lbs, and it doesn’t matter if he throws 87 or 97 mph. Sooner or later everyone’s arm goes, and for every Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine we have a Francisco Liriano, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Carpenter, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria etcetera, etcetera. The real issue here isn’t training methods or velocity as much as it should be a realization that sooner or later all pitchers have to pay the price for the fame and fortune they attain.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Dustin Pedroia (knee) likely done for year.
(2) Ricky Nolasco to pitch through torn meniscus in knee.
(3) Jordan Zimmerman is back. Will Stephen Strasburg return?
(4) Manny Ramirez on waivers – Rangers, Rays, White Sox interested.
(5) Brad Hawpe drawing interest from Red Sox, Rays and Rangers.
(6) Jason Bay (concussion) – no updates.
(7) Jonathan Broxton still in setup role.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Stephen Strasburg headed to DL on Thursday with strained flexor tendon.
(2) Giants awarded Cody Ross. You can also read more about the Giaints’ outfield situation at GoldenGateGiants.com.
(3) Johnny Damon awarded to the Red Sox.
(4) Manny Ramirez likely to be placed on waivers this week.
(5) Ricky Nolasco (knee) might be done for the year.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Jacoby Ellsbury yet another fractured rib.
(2) Second basemen return – Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia and Martin Prado.
(3) Is Justin Morneau done for the year?
(4) Mets place Francisco Rodriguez placed on disqualified list.
(5) Matt Lindstrom out, Brandon Lyon in as closer.
(6) Bryce Harper signs with Nationals.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
