SWIP: 2012 – Swingmen & Relievers

Yesterday in SWIP: 2012 – Starters, I gave a detailed description of exactly what SWIP is before I took a look at the starting pitcher pool from 2011. In PART II of my SWIP report, I’ll take a look at all the hurlers who tossed less than 160 innings including a discussion about the men that work the 8th and 9th innings.

* For an explanation of what SWIP is and how it works, click on the above link. Here is the “key” to help you to understand how to read the SWIP marks.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

The league average in 2011 was 0.45.

Here are the hurlers who tossed between 90 and 160 innings in 2011.

0.87 – Brandon Beachy
Now maybe all of you out there who questioned why I have Beachy so high in my 2012 rankings, which you can find in the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, will at least partially, understand my reasoning.

0.79 – Cory Luebke
A great place to pitch, combined with an impressive K-rate, equals a lot of promise.

0.74 – Tommy Hanson
Injures an a new motion are causing some worry, but if healthy he has the tools to be a top-20 starting pitcher.

0.68 – Scott Baker
Keep an eye on his elbow woes, but Baker owns the skills to be a top of the rotation fantasy arm if he can make 30 starts.

0.64 – Marco Estrada
The likely rotation fill in with the Brewers if Shawn Marcum (shoulder) is unable to go at the start of the year.

0.64 – Jake Peavy
He had nearly a four to one K/BB ratio last year, though he has looked awful in camp thus far.

0.60 – Jonathan Niese, Erik Bedard
One pitcher is always hurt, both are usually overlooked.

0.59 – Tom Gorzelanny
Whatever his role (RP or SP), Tom was an effective hurler last year with a career best 2.88 K/BB ratio.

0.56 – Felipe Paulino
Armed with a big arm, Paulino has quietly averaged 8.28 strikeouts per nine in 347.2 big league innings.

0.37 – Johnny Cueto
Totally changed him M.O. last year morphing from a K-arm, to a ground ball machine. SWIP isn’t a fan of that shift.

0.30 – Jair Jurrjens
I warn about him each year. Don’t buy that low ERA, it’s just not sustainable.

0.28 – Francisco Liriano
What an arm, but all those walks are just a killer.

Now on to the arms that worked at least 40 innings but no more than 90.

1.35 – Sergio Romo
I keep saying it, but here it is again. Romo has no shot at the Hall of Fame, but his numbers to this point of the game are as impressive as pretty much any hurler who has every lived.

1.30 – Kenley Jansen
The #1 target by most fantasy pundits from the middle reliever ranks.

1.20 – Jonathan Papelbon
All he does is save 30 games each year while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.

1.17- Koji Uehara
Often lost in the shuffle on draft day, this import runs smoother than a top of the line Honda Accord.

1.04 – Rafael Betancourt
Some doubt whether or not he can handle the 9th inning all season. That’s fine since he’s never done it for an entire year. However, don’t doubt the skills – they are elite.

0.99 – Sergio Santos
Some are worried about what he will do for an encore in his first year in Toronto. SWIP isn’t concerned.

0.98 – David Robertson
He’s shed the walking boot and appears to be well on his way to being ready for Opening Day after a scare with his foot. Could represent a nice buy low option on draft day.

0.97 – Vinnie Pestano
Looks like Chris Perez might be healthy enough for Opening Day after all, but that doesn’t mean it still wouldn’t be wise to roster Pestano.

0.96 – Rex Brothers
When you blow cheese like he does it doesn’t matter if you are pitching at a mile above seawater.

0.92 – Greg Holland
Never mentioned as an elite bullpen arm, but the guy had 74 Ks and just 19 walks in 60 innings last year.

0.43 – Javy Guerra
Will open the year as the Dodgers’ closer even though he is, literally, a third of the pitcher as Jansen according to SWIP.

0.42 – Jeff Samardzija
He has a great arm that led to 87 Ks in 88 innings last season, but the young fireballer simply has to reign in the free passes (he issued 50 last year).

0.39 – Neftali Feliz
Transitioning to the starting rotation, Feliz was dominant in the second half last year but his overall work places him as a below average SWIP arm.

0.32 – Matt Capps
How long can he hold on to the Twins 9th inning job? Not long if he repeats last years effort.

0.27 – Luke Gregerson
What happened to that once dominating arm out of the Padres’ pen?

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-SWIP-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP: 2012 – Starters

Following the simple methodology of WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched), I invented a new measure of a pitchers dominance called SWIP (it must be the mad scientist in me), in order to better understand which pitchers may possess the skills necessary to have success on a big league hill. Never heard of SWIP you say? Well I’m about to change that.

PART I – WHAT IS SWIP?

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation:

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Another way to look at this is to say that for each positive result, the recording of an out in the form of a strikeout, the pitcher receives a (+1). For each negative encounter, in the form of a walk, he receives a (-1). Simple enough right? Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP so you can see what I’m talking about (and yes, it really is as simple as it sounds).

EXAMPLE

Mike Leake had 118 Ks and 38 BBs in 167.2 IP in 2011.
(118-38) / 167.2
80 / 167.2
0.48 SWIP

Leake’s SWIP for the 2011 season was therefore 0.48.

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better (it should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP).

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective, a key if you will.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2011.

34,448 Strikeouts
15,018 Walks
43,527.1 IP

So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2011 season we simply plug the numbers into our simple equation.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(34448-15018) / 43527.1
19470 / 43527.1
0.4473
SWIP = 0.45

Last year’s 0.45 mark is a major league best in the 21st century as the rate keeps inching upward.

2011: 0.45 SWIP
2010: 0.43 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP
2008: 0.38 SWIP
2007: 0.37 SWIP
2006: 0.37 SWIP
2005: 0.36 SWIP
2004: 0.36 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP
2002: 0.35 SWIP
2001: 0.38 SWIP
2000: 0.30 SWIP

Here are some notes on the pitchers who tossed at least 160-innings last year.

Here are the leaders for the 2011 season (minimum 162 innings)

0.91 – Zack Greinke
An elite K-arm last season, Greinke led all starting pitchers with a 10.54 K/9 mark, and he walked about a batter fewer, per nine innings, than the average big league arm (2.36 BB/9).

0.84 – Cliff Lee
When you strikeout more than a batter per inning (9.12 per nine), and walk only 1.62 per nine, you are an elite performer.

0.83 – Clayton Kershaw
Massive Ks are his calling card, and last season he walked a mere 2.08 batters per nine.

0.79 – Roy Halladay
Concerns about his velocity in spring notwithstanding, the guy just doesn’t beat himself (1.35 walks per nine).

0.75 – Justin Verlander
Huge arm, huge K totals and a better than expected walk rate (2.04 per nine).

0.71 – Yovani Gallardo, CC Sabathia, Madison Bumgarner
A young K artist, the most consistent lefty in the game, and a young lefty from the NL West.

Some names that stood out, for good or bad.

0.62 – Tim Lincecum
A four year low in K/9 coupled with a four year high in BB/9 has his SWIP headed in the wrong direction.

0.56 – Ted Lilly
Always overlooked on draft day. Lilly simply goes out, doesn’t beat himself, and always seems to strike out more batter than people realize.

0.52 – Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain
Two young arms who ply their trade in the Bay Area. Gio G is the higher upside K artist, but Cain’s ability to walk fewer batters has them tied in this measure.

0.43 – Edwin Jackson
What a shock. Edwin Jackson being average at something (recall that the big league average was 0.45 in 2011).

0.25 – Ivan Nova
I wrote about Nova in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

0.24 – Jeremy Hellickson
I wrote about Hellickson in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

Tomorrow I’ll discuss those pitchers who didn’t throw than 160 innings in 2011, and I’ll also have the entire list of hurlers who threw at least 40 innings ranked by their SWIP marks.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

SWIP III: Relief Pitchers

Photo by Jon Konrath

By now you know the drill with SWIP, right? I mean you have been coming to the site everyday to read my work haven’t you? Well, in case you haven’t been studious and are wondering what SWIP actually is, you can cick on the like to SWIP- Measuring a Pitcher’s Dominance.

Here is the simple equation that we will use to calculate SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

The 2010 ML average for SWIP was 0.43.

PART II of SWIP discussed starting pitchers.

Today I’ll break down the men who toss pitches out of the bullpen.

SWIP-2010-BBGuys-40-90

.90 and Up: An excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  Nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days could be numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

1.30 – Rafael Betancourt
I’ve already expounded on the greatness that is Betancourt in in his 2011 Player Profile.

1.18 – Billy Wagner
If only he hadn’t retired.

1.14 – Koji Uehara
His competition for saves in Baltimore, Kevin Gregg, was way down the list at 0.47, just slightly above league average. The key for Koji is can he stay healthy?

1.11 – Carlos Marmol
When you strike out an all-time record 15.99 per nine innings (see: The Strikeout – Relievers), even if you walk nearly everyone else you’re still going to be a SWIP dominator.

1.06 – Joel Hanrahan, Joaquin Benoit
Hanrahan was named the closer for the Pirates over Evan Meek. It was the right call. Benoit was amazing last year leading all pitchers who threw 60-innings with a 0.68 WHIP.

1.01 – Matt Thornton
He should have been the White Sox closer last year. The last three years, amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 200 innings, Thornton 1st in base runners per nine, 5th  in ERA, 2nd in H/9 and 3rd in K/9 in  baseball

0.96 – Takashi Saito, Ryan Madson
Both of these setup men had a better SWIP than the men who take the ball in the 9th inning after them – Jonathan Axford (0.84) Brad Lidge (0.61).

0.90 – Brian Wilson, Sergei Romo
If Wilson does indeed miss some time with his strained oblique the Giants may not miss him too much if Romo’s slider is breaking.

0.82 – Matt Belisle, Bobby Jenks
Last year Belisle came out of nowhere for a guy who owns a 0.49 SWIP mark for his career. As for Jenks, despite “struggling” last year according to many people he still posted a better SWIP than Jonathan Papelbon (0.72) and Daniel Bard (0.62).

0.78 – Tyler Clippard
He’s struggled in camp this year, though so has Drew Storen. Perhaps Clippard will get some looks in the 9th this year for the Nats?

0.72 – Jonathan Broxton
Admittedly he struggled big time last year, but he still posted a better mark than Rafael Soriano (0.69) and the same mark as Huston Street and Papelbon.

0.57 – Mariano Rivera
The greatest closer in AL history is still money, but his declining K-rate will start to eat into his effectiveness.

0.52 – Chris Perez
You shouldn’t have a barley better than league average SWIP when your K/9 mark is 8.71.

0.49 – Jose Valverde
His 9.00 K/9 mark was a career worst and the fourth straight season of decline in that category.

0.37 – Brandon League
He’ll close for the Mariners with David Aardsma on the shelf. His SWIP mark is poor, but he offsets that with a dynamite ground ball rate (62.8 percent).

0.32 – Francisco Cordero
His 7.31 K/9 was more than a batter and a half below his career 9.09 mark.

0.29 – Brandon Lyon
Doesn’t get strikeouts, and really is a league average pitcher in many respects.

0.26 – Fernando Rodney
Angels know they have a lit fuse here (his BB/9 mark is 4.64 for his career). The question is – when will it burn out?

Photo by Jon Konrath

SWIP Part II: Starting Pitchers

In the PART I of this series of articles on SWIP, I spent time explaining just what this metric is and how it works. Rather than restating everything that was listed in the previous discussion, I would just suggest that you take a moment to review the piece so that we can all move forward on the same page. A few notes before I break down the starters.

Here is the simple equation that we will use to calculate SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

The 2010 ML average for SWIP was 0.43.

With that, let’s get to what you really want to see, and that is how the starting pitchers performed in 2010.

SWIP-2010-BBGuys-SP

As you can see from the leader board, there is some difference between how pitchers finished in WHIP and ERA.

Major league WHIP leader Cliff (1.00) posted a terrific SWIP mark of 0.79, good for 2nd in SWIP. The leader in SWIP last season wasn’t AL CY Young winner Felix Hernandez (0.65) or NL Cy Young winner Roy Halladay (0.75). The SWIP leader turned out to be Jered Weaver (0.80), hardly a shock considering that he led baseball with 233 strikeouts (you can see the whole list by clicking on the above link).

Here are some of the highlights, and lowlights, of how those who qualified for the ERA title last season fared according to SWIP. Remember…

.90 and Up: An excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  Nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days could be numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

0.75 – Mat Latos, Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano
A trio of big time arms who rack up the strikeouts while not walking many.

0.73 – Tim Lincecum
Each of his three full seasons he has had at least 231 Ks and the result has been SWIP mark of 0.80.

0.72 – Cole Hamels
Hamels returned to the elite after a slight down turn in 2009 (0.65).

0.69 – Dan Haren
How good is this ace? Over the past four seasons his SWIP is 0.72.

0.68 – Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo
One injured ace is down. If the other can curtail the walks (3.65 per nine), pity batters.

0.67 – James Shields
I keep telling everyone, despite his 5+ ERA, Shields pitched pretty well last season.

0.64 – Clayton Kershaw
Just like Gallardo, the key will be cutting down the walks (3.57 per nine). If he does, he will join the elite.

0.62 – Scott Baker
A pitcher who has excellent skills, even if the results aren’t always where you’d expect them to be (and he’s nice enough to pose for pictures with pretty brunettes too).

0.55 – Ubaldo Jimenez
All those strikeouts (214) mitigated by his 94 free passes (second worst in the NL).

0.52 – David Price
Solid for sure, but still has a ways to go to truly be someone you can consider a Cy Young contender every year.

0.50 – Jonathon Niese
Admit it, you’re shocked that he was just 0.02 behind Price aren’t you. Now you’re starting to see why I like Niese as a strong end game grab in mixed leagues.

0.42 – Jaime Garcia
Better keep up that ground ball rate because even with all his success last year his SWIP mark was below league average.

0.38 – Gio Gonzalez
I don’t doubt that Gio will have some success, but he will be hard pressed to repeat his breakout 2011 effort.

0.31 – Clay Buchholz
His major league days aren’t numbered, not with his strong ground ball rate, but Clay’s SWIP mark says that those ground balls better find his fielders gloves or things could get ugly.

0.28 – Tim Hudson, Trevor Cahill
Remember back in PART I when I said certain pitchers aren’t going to score well in SWIP even though they are fine starting pitchers?

And drum roll please —

The worst man in baseball, who tossed at least 160 innings last season was Brad Bergesen of the Orioles. When you throw 170 innings and only strike out 81 batters you aren’t helping yourself out too much. Given that he walked 51 batters, Bergesen finished the year with a sickly 0.18 SWIP, one hundredth better than the worst qualifier in the NL – Kyle Kendrick (0.19).

Curious as to who those pitchers did who didn’t toss at least 162 innings last season? Here is another leader board for pitchers who threw at least 90-innings last season.

SWIP-2010-BBGuys-90-160

0.77 – Brandon Morrow
Though he walked a ton, he also had the best K/9 rate per nine innings amongst any pitcher who threw 100-innings last season.

0.72 – Ricky Nolasco
I don’t know how many of you are willing to take the risk, but if Nolasco tosses 180-innings he could  be a top-25 starter in the fantasy game.

0.60 – Daniel Hudson
He had a great run to end the year with the D’backs. What will he do for an encore?

0.58 – Travis Wood
This rookie was pretty darn impressive last year when called upon in the second half.

0.56 – Kevin Slowey, Josh Beckett, Jhoulys Chacin
Two veterans that most are down on, and one rookie who everyone seemingly likes. Which guy would you pay the most for on draft day?

0.55 – Jake Peavy
From 2004-09 his SWIP mark was 0.74.

0.55 – Homer Bailey
Will Bailey finally makes 30 starts and break through for the Reds?

0.54 – Madison Bumgarner
It’s certainly a small sample size but over his last nine appearances, including the playoffs, his SWIP mark was 0.78.

0.53 – Bud Norris
It’s all about the heat with this guy who needs to learn how to control the strike zone to avoid being sent to the bullpen.

0.47 – Brett Anderson
A great pitcher when healthy, he’ll likely never score that highly in SWIP because he doesn’t have a big strike out arm.

0.38 – Daisuke Matsuzaka
Was it really just two years ago that some thought this guy would be a perennial all-star?

SWIP- Measuring a Pitcher’s Dominance

Grover Cleveland Alexander – Photo From Library of Congress

Is there a simple way to build off of the idea of WHIP to produce a another number that reflects a pitcher’s level of performance?

WHIP: A REVIEW

My contention is that WHIP, while a nice measure of a pitcher’s general level of success, could be augmented by a similar to figure metric which I believe might be more reflective of a pitchers ability to control the strike zone and therefore limit batters ability to get on base. Perhaps I should start by defining WHIP before I move on to the “new” option – and sorry if this seems like a review of how to add two plus two.

WHIP has become all the rage in the past decade or so – especially in fantasy baseball. You measure WHIP by adding walks and hits together and then dividing by innings pitched.

WHIP = (Walks + Hits) / Innings Pitched

WHIP is one of the many measures that can be used to address the success, or lack thereof, for a pitcher. I believe that the vagaries of hits allowed compromises the measure somewhat. Think about the type of factors that can effect whether or not a batted ball falls for a hit: a ball lost in the sun a wind gust, a misstep by a fielder or a coach positioning players in the wrong spot can often offer a “false” indicator of a pitcher’s performance by charging a hit to his ledger. Should a pitcher be “punished” for situations like this that are completely out of his control?

If you think about it, the pitcher is directly in control of few things during the game. Two of those “events” that a pitcher is directly able to influence the outcome of deal with whether or not he throws strikes or balls (I’m not going to worry about the vagaries of umpires strike zones or batters willingness to swing at pitches that are out of the strike zone). About the only other events that the pitcher relies solely upon himself and not his fielders, coaches or terrain is the homer and the hit by pitch. Since WHIP does not count HBP, I won’t consider it here either. To address the issue of the importance of keeping batters off base while limiting free passes I invented the idea of SWIP.

In PART I of this three-part series I will define what SWIP. In PART II, I will break down the SWIP leaders amongst starting pitchers from 2010. PART III I will deal with the men who pitch out of the bullpen.

PART I – WHAT IS SWIP?

Following the simple methodology of WHIP, I invented a new measure of a pitchers dominance called SWIP (it must be the mad scientist in me).

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. Therefore SWIP is determined by the following equation:

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Another way to look at this is to say that for each positive result, the recording of an out in the form of a strikeout, the pitcher receives a (+1). For each negative encounter, in the form of a walk, he receives a (-1). Simple enough right? Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP so you can see what I’m talking about (and yes, it really is as simple as it sounds).

EXAMPLE

Dan Haren had 216 Ks and 54 BBs in 235 IP in 2010.

(216-54) / 235
162 / 235
0.69 SWIP

Haren’s SWIP for the 2010 season was therefore 0.69.

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better.

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective, a key if you will.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2010.

34,302 Strikeouts
15,778 Walks
43,304.2 IP

So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2010 season we simply plug the numbers into our simple equation.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(34302-15778) / 43304.2
18524 / 43304.2
0.4277
SWIP = 0.43

Not surprisingly, last year’s 0.43 mark mirrors the major league SWIP totals of the past few years though it is an 11-year high.

2010: 0.43 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP
2008: 0.38 SWIP
2007: 0.37 SWIP
2006: 0.37 SWIP
2005: 0.36 SWIP
2004: 0.36 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP
2002: 0.35 SWIP
2001: 0.38 SWIP
2000: 0.30 SWIP

Now that I have enumerated what SWIP is and how it is figured, I will spend a brief moment detailing its major flaw.

LIMITS OF SWIP

As almost every metric out there that measures anything, SWIP is limited, in this case because of its simplicity. The major flaw of SWIP is that it favors pitchers with strikeout potential while often shortchanging those pitchers who might actually be “better” real world pitchers. We all know that this type of pitcher, the one who gets by more on guile than pure stuff (a guy like Jeremy Guthrie), but SWIP is concerned with “stuff” so it favors pitchers with power arms.

Starting pitchers have multiple innings to set up batters and vary pitch sequences, not to mention the time needed to work themselves out of trouble. This freedom allows starters to pitch with a variety of styles, all of which can be successful. At one end of the pitching spectrum there are “stuff” guys like Tim Lincecum who dominate hitters. However, you have hurlers like knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and soft-tossers like Dallas Braden who can be very successful as well. Obviously these pitchers do not record strikeouts at the same rate as their power pitching compatriots – their stuff simply isn’t overpowering enough.

All pitching styles can be successful whether they rely upon the strikeout or the ground ball if the pitcher has enough time to work out of jams and if he knows how to pitch. However, the more often that a pitcher can limit a batters ability to put the ball in the field of play, the more often he has “control” over the at-bat. So everything being equal, a pitcher is better off by not allowing the batter to hit the ball – it’s as simple as that. Again, that doesn’t mean there is only is only one path a pitcher must follow for success. As a result, some of the pitchers that you will read about with a poor SWIP marks will have been successful in 2010 even if their path to success was slightly unconventional.

As far as relief pitchers, they operate under a different set of “rules.” Relievers usually don’t have multiple innings to set up batters and they often come into games with runners already on base. They don’t have time to find their grove and work on touch pitches like change-ups and curve balls. Relievers need to come in and throw strikes – immediately. As a result it appears that SWIP might be a more useful tool to pass judgment on pitchers who rely mostly on “hard stuff” (fastballs, sliders and fork balls) than soft tossers. These hard throwing pitchers, as a general rule, tend to congregate more toward the bullpen than in the starting rotation since relievers can come in, throw gas, and not have to worry about pacing themselves to last multiple frames.

Therefore, SWIP can be termed a “dominance stat” in that it helps us to track which pitchers are best at limiting hitters ability to hit that ball. So in the analysis you are about to read don’t take the results of SWIP to mean that I necessarily think that Brett Myers was a better pitcher than Chris Carpenter because he had a better SWIP mark in 2010. Take the analysis for what it is, and remember this simple axiom…

Everything being equal, the pitcher who limits hitters ability to hit the ball, as well as limiting the free passes he allows, is the pitcher more likely to be consistent from year-to-year.

In PART II, you can read about how SWIP is applied to starting pitchers.

By Ray Flowers