April Fool’s Day

It’s my party and I’ll cry if I want to.

It’s my birthday and I’ll drink if I want to.

Yeah, it’s my birthday, and that’s no joke despite the fact that it’s April Fool’s Day. Obviously I’m feeling a bit frisky given today given the enormity of the day, so I’m just going to let it fly today and leave it up to you to determine when I’m stating a fact or exaggerating for effect.

John Axford had a WHIP of 1.92 this spring, and things didn’t get much better on opening day as he allowed a sure win to slip through the Brewers’ hands as he allowed a two out, three run homer to Ramon Hernandez in the 9th inning leading to the Reds 7-6 comeback victory. I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Axford figured out what ails him as he brings the heat and induces a lot of grounders, but if he continues to struggle Takashi Saito would seem like a pretty fair bet to pick up some save chances. Saito might be 40 years old, but look at his career numbers – 2.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.00 K/9 and a 3.89 K/BB ratio. Those are pretty phenomenal ratios are they not?

Ryan Franklin is awful. He allowed the game to slip away in the 9th inning on a 417 foot bomb to dead center by Cameron Maybin. It’s only one game, but this is exactly why rostering a power arm like that of Matt Thornton over Franklin makes all the sense in the world. As for Maybin he looked fantastic. In addition to the bomb to dead center field he also had a single and made a great diving play on defense. Emblematic of his time in the majors though, he was removed from the game after the second hit after coming up lame. Reports are that it was just a cramp, so hopefully he’ll be able to go back to being the most dynamic force in the National League in the Padres next game.

Alex Gordon had a day to remember on opening day. He missed a 3-run homer by a few feet when his deep shot ended up on the wrong side of the foul pole and he struck out three times while going 0-for-5 while leaving five batters on base. I’m cheering for the guy, but the Royals are doing him no favors but putting him in the third hole in the order. Are they trying to put so much pressure on him that he fails yet again? I know he’s been swinging a good bat, but why not bat him 7th, let him get some confidence going in regular season games, and then move him up the order is his production warrants it. Of course, that makes far too much sense for a team that, and I’m not kidding, has no idea how to put together a major league batting order. Melky Cabrera was hitting second, a great spot for a guy with a career .328 OBP and only moderate speed.

Jeff Mathis had a huge opening day for the Angels. Not only did he guide a staff to a victory, 4-2 over the Royals, he also did some serous bashing at the dish. Mathis had two hits, a homer and a double, in the best offensive game of his life going back to t-ball when he was five years old. That’s only a slight exaggeration. I mean seriously, the guy had six games of two hits or more last year and he appeared in 68 contests. How bad a hitter is he? In a career of 954 at-bats prior to opening day he had hit .195 with a .265 OBP and a .311 SLG. For those of you without a calculator handing that means his OPS of .576 is only .295 points behind the leading OPS mark posted by a catcher last season (Joe Mauer .871). I mean my goodness. Mathis’ career SLG is .311. His old mate behind the dish, Mike Napoli, has a career OBP of .346.

Albert Pujols is awful. He went 0-for-5 with three double-plays to become the first player in big league history to do that on opening day. Hopefully you didn’t draft him first overall because this was an absolutely horrible performance and one that is likely to be indicative of his yearlong struggles.

Happy April Fool’s Day.

By Ray Flowers

Arms for the New Year

Just like I did last week in Hot Stove: The Arms Race, I’ll spend my time today detailing some of the hurlers that have found new homes.

The Brandon Webb Saga

Finally. After pretty much every team in baseball was tied to the righty at some point this offseason, Webb will take his surgically repaired shoulder to the AL Champion Rangers in 2011 after agreeing to a 1-year deal with a base salary of $3 million. It should be pointed out that the deal isn’t official, and since it is dependent on Webb passing a physical there is still a chance that the deal could be scuttled, but it appears like the deal will be wrapped up soon.

The Rangers lost Cliff Lee, their only ace level starter, but C.J. Wilson was pretty impressive in his own right last season in his first year as a starter (he had the 10th best ERA in the AL at 3.35). Colby Lewis, who found his groove in Japan, returned to the States with his rhythm intact as he struck out 196 batters, the 7th best mark in the AL. Tommy Hunter went 13-4 last season with an ERA of 3.73 over 23 appearances, and Derek Holland has been the arm of the future for the Rangers for a while now. That would appear to leave the 5th spot for Webb, a great fit for a guy who simply cannot be counted on after throwing four innings the past two years because of shoulder woes.

Texas isn’t a very good place to pitch given that the ballpark was 4th in the AL in allowing runs and 5th in homers according to Park Indices. The good news is that if Webb’s shoulder is back to something near his pre-injury form it likely won’t matter. A ground ball machine because of his sinking fastball, Webb had the highest ground ball rate of any pitcher in baseball who threw at least 500-innings from 2005-08.

Still, there are a plethora of legitimate concerns.

(1) Is he healthy, and if he is, will he be able to return to his pre-injury form?

(2) Even if healthy, will he have the stamina to last 200-innings after basically missing two years?

(3) If he has lost some sink/movement on his pitches, how will the move to Texas impact his performance given that he will be facing the stouter offenses of the Junior Circuit?

What did the Rangers add to their rotation? From a fantasy perspective, don’t by the hype. You can surely take a late shot on Webb if the reports are positive during camp, but keep in mind the potential pitfalls, which are many, before you go reaching for Webb’s services.

One last note. If Webb does indeed return to some semblance of his earlier form, his signing would appear to allow the Rangers their preferred option of once again going with Neftali Feliz in the 9th inning instead of having to shift him back into the rotation to fill a glaring need.

Octavio Dotel to the Blue Jays

It’s not a lock, but multiple sources are reporting that Dotel will sign a 1-year deal for $3.5 million to join the Blue Jays with the assumption being that he will be given the first crack to take over in the ninth inning for free agent Kevin Gregg (who is still looking for a team by the way). For some thoughts on Dotel, make sure you read Hot Stove: The Arms Race, where I pointed out that, despite his faults, that Dotel can still sling it with the best of them.

This move would seem to relegate Jason Frasor, once again, to a setup role. I say once again because this guy has pitched pretty darn well the last two years with a 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.98 K/9 and a solid 2.81 K/BB ratio. Keep an eye on Frasor. If he can keep the ball on the ground again – his GB-rate was back above his career 44.3 percent mark at 46.4 after back-to-back years below 39 percent – he could easily have another successful campaign and work his way into the 9th inning mix when the inevitable slump hits Dotel.

Takashi Saito Joins Brewers

Saito agreed to a 1-year deal with the Brewers on Monday. He isn’t a threat to John Axford who will, barring something unforeseen, open the year as the Brewers’ undisputed closer, but that doesn’t mean Saito shouldn’t be looked at in the fantasy game.

Saito will be 41 on Valentine’s Day, and that alone would be a big concern. Throw in the fact that he continues to be bothered by on and off again issues with his arm and on the surface he would appear to be off limits. However, whenever his elbow isn’t barking, the guy is dominating. In a big league career of 299.1 innings Saito has produced a 2.19 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 11.00 K/9 mark and a 3.89 K/BB ratio thanks in no small part to that disappearing slider of his. Amid little fanfare, Saito posted an enormous 11.50 K/9 rate and a 1.07 WHIP for the Braves in 2010 signaling that he can still get it done when his body permits.

J.C. Romero Back in Philly

After failing to work things out with Dennys Reyes, the Phillies had a hole in their bullpen for a left-handed specialist. Naturally, they turned to Romero. Despite the fact that the Phils turned down his $4.5 million option for 2011 there was always mutual interest if the price was right. Apparently the two sides found that common ground.

A piece of advice for you if you have a son and are wondering what you should teach him to be when he gets older – make sure you teach him to throw left-handed. Romero keeps getting work year after year, and making millions of dollars, despite the fact that he just isn’t very good. In 628 big league appearances Romero owns a 4.08 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP, decidedly average numbers. He is also well below average with a hideous 5.14 BB/9 mark and a pathetic 1.40 K/BB rate. He can get lefties out, he has held them to a .215 BAA in his career, but even when having that success he really hasn’t all that good with a 3.83 BB/9 mark and a 1.20 WHIP. So hopefully you brought your kid a left-handed glove for the holidays. Clear away the snow and get that kid a throwin.

By Ray Flowers

Winter Meetings Update

I love the Winter Meetings. In fact, I’ve combined the event with Twitter to form a duo kind of like peanut butter and jelly. I admit it. I’m addicted now. I wake up in the middle of the night thinking ‘I’m sure the readers would love to hear that thought.’ Don’t worry, I keep a pad by my bed to write down the thoughts that hit me when most of the U.S. is counting candy canes in their sleep.

* Still reeling over the Three-team Blockbuster Deal between the Tigers, Yankees and D’backs? You can read my breakdown of the deal by clicking on the link, but there is still something I don’t get – why did the D’backs enter this deal as the third team? I think they will rue the day that they let Max Scherzer go for Edwin Jackson. Maybe I’m wrong here, but honestly, I have a hard time believing that. Whether Scherzer is a top of the rotation arm, or a closer (a potential given his somewhat violent delivery), as long as his arm doesn’t fly off I see this kid being something special.

* John Lackey is regarded by all as the top free agent hurler on the market. However, it doesn’t seem likely that anyone is going to fall all over themselves to throw $100 million his way. In fact, he might have to wait a bit and hope someone gets a bit desperate to hit that figure.

* I wrote yesterday how I thought it was a ruse that Rafael Soriano would accept the Braves arbitration offer in What a Great Monday. Turns out I’ve got that proverbial egg on my face as he did just that. As a result, the Braves are facing the prospect of having to trade Soriano or spend roughly a fifth of their entire payroll on Soriano, Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. Soriano has already submitted a group of teams he would like to join with one possible destination being the Orioles who have already mentioned their intention to acquire a closer.

Have heard barely a peep dealing with Matt Holliday. The other big bopper, Jason Bay, appears to be on the short list for teams such as the Red Sox, Mariners and Angels, the club from Anaheim emerging in the last 24 hours as a potentially serious player.

I’m still completely blown away by the Cardinals give Brad Penny $7.5 million with incentives that could take the deal to $9 million. My question is a simple one – why?

If Ivan Rodriguez can get a 2-year deal for $6 million from the Nationals to be a part-timer, why are people freaking that Jason Kendall wants $5 to be a full-time starter? In an odd twist, he might get that starting role by joining Pudge’s old club, the Rangers.

Why are the Brewers looking to trade Corey Hart? Here is a direct quote from my Twitter page. “The Brewers seem intent on moving Corey Hart, though I don’t really know why. Haven’t they heard adage – buy low, sell high?”

Milton Bradley continues to have his name involved in more rumors than just about anyone else. Guess teams are really interested in adding a guy who can’t stay healthy, wears out his welcome in about four months, and constantly torments fans and teammates with his off putting attitude. Only in America can a guy like that make more money in a year, over $10 million, than 99 percent of us will make in our entire lives.

The Giants have been linked to names like Adrian Beltre, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Nick Johnson and Orlando Hudson. The club would prefer to have Pablo Sandoval to play third, but he could easily slide over to first if a third baseman is brought to town. The club could also move Freddy Sanchez over to third if they were to sign a second baseman like Hudson, but a year after struggling for any pop, do they really want a third baseman who is likely to hit about 10 bombs in Sanchez?

By Ray Flowers