Player Profile: Hyun-Jin Ryu

Normally in my Player Profile series I like to write about players who are being over drafted because of unwarranted hype, or I focus on players that can be hidden gems of production because people are underestimating their value. Today I’ll do something different. I’ll write up a player who has never thrown an official inning as a professional baseball player in North America…

WHO AM I?

Hyun-Jin Ryu is a 25 year old left-handed hurler from Korea (he’ll be 26 on March 25th). The Dodgers believe that he’s a viable option for their starting rotation, and backing up their belief they shelled out a six year deal for $36 million to attain his services. The Dodgers also had to pay just over $25 million with the posting fee to obtain the rights to sign Ryu, so they’ve invested nearly $62 million dollars in the guy for the next six years. So who is this Ryu and why did the Dodgers spend so much money to acquire a guy who looks an awful lot like a fourth starter?

CAREER ABROAD

Ryu started his professional career in the Korean Baseball Organization in 2006. He was excellent going 18-6 with a 2.23 ERA and 204 punchouts in 201.2 innings and he became the first player to win ROY and MVP in the same season. He then tossed another 200+ innings while winning 17 games with 178 Ks in his second season. In 2008 Ryu competed in the Beijing Olympics including throwing 8.1 innings in the Gold Medal winning game for South Korea. On the downside, Ryu failed to toss 200-innings each season from 2008-2012, but he was an effective arm throughout. Here are his career KBO numbers (he was an All-Star every one of his seven seasons):

98-52, 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.78 K/9, 3.23 K/BB ratio over 1,269 innings
If a pitcher posts those numbers in the big leagues we have a name for him – it’s Adam Wainwright. But those numbers were compiled in the KBO, hardly a league that offers up the same level of competition as major league baseball. That leaves open the question of how his skills will translate to the majors.

* Ryu had Tommy John surgery while he was in high school, so hopefully we won’t have to be worrying about his elbow blowing up, though as we have seen pitchers sometimes do need to have the procedure done twice (think Brian Wilson and Joakim Soria).

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

SCOUTING REPORT

Ryu throws his fastball anywhere from 88-92 mph. He also throws an assortment of slow, and slower, off speed pitches. Given his build, he’s not going to be on the cover of Muscle & Fitness anytime soon, and manager Don Mattingly likened him to David Wells (he’s 6’2” and reported to camp weighing a whopping 255 lbs. which raised some eyebrows, especially when he was having trouble with some of the conditioning work – more on that below). It should also be noted that the baseball is a bit slicker in North America, so that will take some time to get acclimated, and Sandy Koufax worked with Ryu a bit on alternating the grip on his curve ball a bit to help with the transition.

2013 OUTLOOK

The Dodgers have a bunch of options than can turn to in their rotation. Obviously they didn’t lavish millions on Ryu to use him out of the pen, or to send him to the minors, so you have to think he’s going to be part of the mix. My best guess on how the rotation is going to play out follows.

The Locks
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
Josh Beckett

Almost Certainly In
Hyun-Jin Ryu

Left to Battle for the 5th Spot
Ted Lilly (who I wrote about in Rounding the Bases)
Chad Billingsley
Chris Capuano
Aaron Harang

Obviously the Dodgers have a bounty of arms, and it’s very likely that once they settle on the unit that a couple of these arms will be dealt to shore up other spots on the club.

If I had to guess what type of effort Ryu will offer this season I’d say that he’s appropriately slotted as the 4th starter for the Dodgers. It remains to be seen how Ryu will adapt to American culture, the minor change with the ball and the change in training methods (he famously had some issues with his first training session in camp as he struggled to complete his work. “I realized today that in America, when they do long-distance running, they run really fast,” he said.). There is also the fact that he hasn’t thrown 200 innings since the 2007 season. I’d think that Paul Maholm‘s 2012 effort (13-11, 3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 140 Ks) would be the high water mark for what your expectations should be for Ryu this year, but even that is likely being far too rosie in the old prediction department. I’d let someone else draft Ryu. It would be a big time shock if he emerged as an All-Star caliber player this season so he’s best left for the reserve rounds in mixed leagues. Don’t reach.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com. DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Michael Cuddyer vs. Kevin Millwood: We all know that Millwood is nothing more than a place holder anyway. Put him in Coors Field and things could get ugly. Cuddyer has long enjoyed the matchup with the righty as he’s hit .429 with two homers in 28 at-bats. Jason Giambi (.421-3-5) and Todd Helton (.324-2-6) have also enjoyed considerable success in the matchup.

Albert Pujols vs. Jeff Suppan: The latest Padres scrap heap add, Suppan is 2-12 with a 1.69 ERA through three starts. He won’t keep that up much longer. He’s also in grave danger of being tattooed by Mr. Pujols who has suddenly has a 6-game hit streak including two homers and five RBI the last two games. Pujols is also 16-for-42, a .381 average, with a homer and six RBI against Suppan.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Edwin Jackson vs. Orioles: Jackson has pitched very well for the Nats this year with a 3.71 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 4.22 K/BB ratio in his first seven starts for the club. Friday he faces an Orioles club that he has long had success against. In nine career outings against the team from Baltimore he is 5-1 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 40 Ks in 47.1 innings, numbers that don’t look at all out of place compared to his work this season.

Ted Lilly vs. Cardinals: In 2008-09 Lilly went 4-1 against the Cardinals and in his career against the Cardinals he’s also 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 14 starts. He’s also 5-0 this have allowed a single run in four of his six starts (the other two times out he’s allowed six runs leading to a 2.11 ERA for the year).

Carlos Zambrano vs. Indians: In seven starts this season only two times has Big Z allowed more than one earned run (he allowed four runs in six innings in his first start and three runs in six innings on April 27th). The result is a 1.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across his 48 innings. It’s hard to sit him against anyone right now.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Adam Dunn vs. Ryan Dempster: The Cubs ace is pitching very well to start the year (1.74 ERA, .097 WHIP) but Dunn is performing equally as well for the White Sox (12 HR, 30 RBI, .947 OPS in 39 games) . In 27 career plate appearances against Dempster Dunn has hit .294 while he’s walked 10 times leading to an otherworldly .556 OBP (he has two homers and four RBI as well).

Adrian Gonzalez vs. Joe Blanton: AGone hasn’t lived up to expectations this year but he’s set up for a matchup Saturday that should certainly be advantageous to him. In 16 at-bats against Blanton he has seven hits, two of which are big flies, and he’s knocked in four runs leading to a .438 average and 1.283 OPS.

Ty Wigginton vs. Jon Lester: These two have only squared off 20 times but Wigginton has produced eight hits (.400) including a homer. Add in the four walks Ty has also been able to accrue and the Phillies’ batter has a video game like .538 OBP in the matchup.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Christian Friedrich vs. Mariners: How is this for a way to start your big league career. Take on the Padres in San Diego. Then fly north up the California coast to take on the Giants in San Francisco. How about you them hop on a plan to fly home to take on the Mariners. Has a pitcher ever had a better set of three opponents to take on to start his big league career? Through 13 innings the lefty with the dominating curve ball has 17 Ks, two walks allowed an a 1.38 ERA.

Derek Holland vs. Astros: He’s made two starts against the Astros, and though his ERA is 4.15 his WHIP is impressive at 1.08, as is his BAA of .234. Plus, the Astros are far from being an offensive juggernaut, right? There’s also the fact that over his last 14.1 innings that Holland has allowed one earned run.

Yovani Gallardo vs. Twins: The Twins are in the bottom five in many offensive categories this year including runs scored which should certainly help Gallardo who has allowed just four runs while striking out 14 batters over his last 12 innings. Gallardo has also impressed in four starts against the Twins in his career with a 2.48 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 27 Ks in 29 innings.

CONTESTS

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By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your crunk on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano: I feel a bit stupid suggesting you should starts Cano, it’s not like there is anyone out there who doesn’t know he’s a HOF bound second sacker, but in 20 career at-bats against the Red Sox Clay Buchholz he’s racked up nine hits for a .450 batting average.

Ryan Ludwick: I’m not a huge fan, and think the Reds made a mistake not just going with Chris Heisey, but there is no denying the track record of Ludwick against the Cubs as he’s hit .279 with 10 homers, 37 RBI an a .843 OPS in 201 at-bats. He’s been even more dominant at Wrigley hitting .349 with seven homers an a 1.041 OPS in 109 at-bats there.

Ryan Raburn: He has only 12 at-bats against Matt Harrison, but he’s been a superstar in the matchup batting .667 with two bombs, seven RBIs an a 2.026, yes that’s a two, OPS. As you read about, you did read Quick Starting Pitchers right?, I’m not a huge fan of Harrison either.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ted Lilly: In his first outing he allowed one unearned run to the Padres. He faces Houston Friday, a team he has thoroughly dominated in his career: Lilly is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.27 K/9 and a 3.50 K/BB. Toss in the fact that the Astros aren’t very good, and this is a dream matchup on paper.

And for the second straight weeks, two oldies but goodies…

Carlos Zambrano: After allowing one run to the Astros in his last outing, why not go to the well again? Big Z has a matchup with the Nats next, and he’s had a lot of success against that organization in his career with an 8-3 record, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 73 Ks in 78 career innings.

Barry Zito: Through 16 innings Zito has allowed 11 base runners (0.69 WHIP), and just two earned runs (1.13 ERA). We all know the dream will end soon, but it may last another start. Zito has a 3.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, with 30 Ks in 35.1 innings, against his opponent Friday – the Mets.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Travis Hafner: We’re only talking 12 at-bats here, and that isn’t necessarily enough data to draw any sort of lasting conclusion, but Hafner has four hits, including two homers, against the Athletics’ Brandon McCarthy. Hafner has also knocked in six runners in the matchup while also garnering two walks.

Brandon Phillips: The only thing that seems likely to stop him on Saturday is his bum wheel. In 48 career at-bats against Paul Maholm he has 17 hits, good for a .354 average an a 1.034 OPS. He’s also taken the Cubs hurler deep four times leading to nine RBI. Plus and play with this gu – as long as he is in the lineup.

Martin Prado: Off to a bit of a slow start hitting .250, Prado is a .292 career hitter. He’s also raked against the D’backs in his career going 22-for-60 leading to a .367 average and 13 RBI in 17 games played. He’s also picked up a hit in seven of his last nine games while he’s driven in four runs while scoring four times in his last two contests. Joe Saunders isn’t exactly a dominating opponent either.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mike Leake: When a guy is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against a team (the Cubs), you had better take notice. Don’t expect a lot of strikeouts, he has just 32 in 50.2 innings against the Cubs, but he should still have an effective outing.

Brandon McCarthy: Last season he went 6-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. This season he’s made three “home” starts and in that time he’s got a 2.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The matchup with the Indians isn’t a great one on paper given that the Indians offense has been humming along in the early going, but McCarthy is still a solid option given his success in Oakland and his 6-3 record and 1.30 WHIP against the Indians over 16 games, if he can avoid letting Travis Hafner beat him that is.

Mike Pelfrey: The Mets hurler gets to face the less than imposing offense of the Giants. That’s good news for the 6’7” righty who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against the Giants in six starts. He’ll also be pitching at Citi Field, a place where he has enjoyed a lot of success (19-13, 3.46 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

CONTESTS

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By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 19, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Justin Morneau just hit the wire. Drop Dexter Fowler, Kendrys Morales or Billy Butler to get him?
– @JoshNarva

I’m cheering on Morneau as much as the next guy, but let’s slow our roll here a bit. I know that he’s playing defense which is great news, and that he has hit three homers in his last two games. All of that is well and good. However, someone needs to mention that the last time this guy had 300 at-bats was 2009. It should also be noted that over his last 80 games played Morneau has hit .235 with eight homers and 36 RBI. I’m all for hoping he will return to being the 20-100 man he was for 4-straight years from 2006-09, but he’ll need a lot more than two strong games to convince me he is back to that level.

The obvious move to be made would be to drop Morales. Both play first base and both are coming off injury. But think back three weeks. Is there anyone, and I mean any one of you, that drafted Morneau ahead of Morales? I bet there wasn’t one of you as Morneau was still struggling while Morales was simply bashing the ball in Spring Training. Ask yourself this question. Are you going to let 11 games, the total each has played this season, change the opinion that you held three weeks ago?

Should I drop Carlos Marmol for Santiago Casilla, Fernando Rodney or Jim Johnson?
– @harveynuts

More panic in the streets when it comes to closers, but I can’t really blame anyone (did you see the crazy news that Brad Lidge is dealing with vertigo? It’s like anything, and I literally mean anything, could sideline a 9th inning arm at this point. I fully expect one of the closers in the game to go missing in the Bermuda Triangle at some point in the near future).

Quickly, my thoughts on each.

Johnson has been stable, after some spring concerns, converting all five of his save chances. His K-rate is uninspiring (5.77 per nine for his career), ditto his K/BB (2.01), but he keeps the ball on the ground (57 percent). He could offer a 2011 Brandon League type effort if everything goes just right.

Rodney, how can I put this? He stinks. From 2007-11, that’s 270 games worth of pitching, had an ERA of  4.42, a WHIP of 1.50 and his K/BB was pathetic at 1.57. He wasn’t, and let me stress this, league average in any of those three categories the past five years. Good luck with him holding down the 9th inning job all year even if he’s been one of the better producers this season (see Fleaflicker).

Casilla has concerns as well, primarily his lack of pinpoint control. For more, see The On Deck Circle.

Keep Marmol. Not only does he have the longest track record of 9th inning success among this group, he’s also the most dominating option with one of the best K-rate’s in the history of baseball (min. 450 innings pitched his 11.73 K/9 mark is 4th all-time with the leader being Rob Dibble at 12.17). With Kerry Wood dealing with arms woes who would the Cubs turn to – Shawn Camp or James Russell? Please.

With RP being a crap shoot so far, does the value of Jose Valverde increase?
– @Phastball

It depends on how you view the value of Valverde. Is his job safe? Absolutely. Is he coming off a perfect season with 49 saves in 49 chances given him a massive amount of rope? Without question. At the same time, he didn’t pitch near as well last season as most people assume when they look at the save conversion rate. (1) Since 2006 his K/9 rate has gone down every season. 2011 was the first time in his career that he struck out less than a batter per inning. (2) Never a paint the corner artist, Valverde has walked an average of 4.39 batters per nine innings the past two years, more than a full batter worse than the league average. (3) His career GB/FB ratio of 0.96 is less than the big league average (about 1.10), another mark against him. I’m not predicting failure from him in 2012, he’ll get his saves, but realize he isn’t the pitcher that he was a few years ago even if he’s been so impressive at converting those save chances of late.

What do you think about Tommy Milone? What’s the comparable ceiling for this guy?
– @tallen1984

Scouts like Milone, but at the same time they’ve always been a bit reluctant to fully push him as an elite prospect since his pure “stuff” just isn’t that dominant. However, he had one of the more remarkable seasons of any minor league hurler last year when he went 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 148.1 innings at Triple-A. While those are good numbers, here is the remarkable part – he struck out more than a batter per inning, 155 in total, while walking 16 batters – sixteen. That’s 16 walks in 24 starts folks leading to a 9.69 K/BB ratio. Amazing.

Milone figures to have success, he certainly knows how to pitch, but he still throws 87-88 mph, and there is no way he’s going to be able to post numbers in the bigs like he did last season in the minors. The best case scenario for him this year is something akin to what Mark Buehrle accomplished last year (13-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 109 Ks).

Nolan Reimold or Matt Joyce for 4th OF?
– @gtrevino1975

I’ve been getting a ton of Reimold questions thanks to his impressive start (.341/.357/.707, four homers, eight RBI), but I’m not shocked at his success. In the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide, I highlighted Reimold as a potential breakout performer you could grab on the cheap. Reimold has flashed the type of skills that lead one to believe that if he gets daily playing time, something he has received in the early going, that he could hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases (he is dealing with neck spasms and a hammy injury though, so there are a few health woes to worry about). He may never be more than a league average type in batting average, nothing in his K-rate, BB-rate, BABIP, GB/FB, LD-rate says he is anything but blah, but those counting numbers could be pretty darn solid if he gets 500 at-bats.

The real question here is do you go with the hot start and potential of Reimold and forgive the fact that he’s been lingering as a letdown for the past few years, or do you turn to Joyce who had a nice season last year when he posted a fantasy line of .277-19-75-69-13. In essence, Joyce was the type of player last season that many “think” Reimold can be. It’s not like Joyce has a long track record of success compared to Reimold, but I’m a fan of been there, done that. I had Joyce a few spots ahead of Reimold in my rankings three weeks ago before the season started, and Reimold is bit beat up right now physically, so I’m still leaning in the direction of Joyce right now.

Mat Latos was just dropped. I have Ted Lilly, Matt Harrison and Brandon Beachy. Do I drop anyone for him?
– @GetARealJob111

This is all I’m going to say about Ted Lilly. Since 2007 Lilly has the 5th best base runner per nine inning (10.40) mark of any pitcher in baseball who has thrown at least 750-innings, and he’s one of just 14 pitchers who has an K/9 mark of 7.50 in four of the last five seasons, minimum 150 IP a year (he just missed making it 5-for-5 last year with his 7.38 mark).

Beachy has a stupendous arm. In 168.2 career innings he has a K/9 rate of 10.30 and a K/BB rate of 3.33. Those are elite numbers. I’m not letting a young hurler with numbers like that go.

The guy you let go of to add Latos, and please add Latos and don’t panic with his poor performance to date (0-2, 8.22 ERA, 1.89 WHIP – it’s been three starts people), is Harrison. For more on why you should move on from Harrison see Quick Starting Pitchers.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.  

SWIP: 2012 – Starters

Following the simple methodology of WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched), I invented a new measure of a pitchers dominance called SWIP (it must be the mad scientist in me), in order to better understand which pitchers may possess the skills necessary to have success on a big league hill. Never heard of SWIP you say? Well I’m about to change that.

PART I – WHAT IS SWIP?

S- Strikeouts (abbreviated as K)
W- Walks (abbreviated as BB)
IP- Innings Pitched

Numerically speaking, the formula for SWIP works along the same lines as WHIP. SWIP is determined by the following equation:

Strikeouts minus Walks divided by Innings Pitched equals SWIP.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Another way to look at this is to say that for each positive result, the recording of an out in the form of a strikeout, the pitcher receives a (+1). For each negative encounter, in the form of a walk, he receives a (-1). Simple enough right? Here is an example of how you can figure out SWIP so you can see what I’m talking about (and yes, it really is as simple as it sounds).

EXAMPLE

Mike Leake had 118 Ks and 38 BBs in 167.2 IP in 2011.
(118-38) / 167.2
80 / 167.2
0.48 SWIP

Leake’s SWIP for the 2011 season was therefore 0.48.

Though SWIP is recorded in the same manner as WHIP, the way to read the results is slightly different. Whereas the lower the WHIP the better one has performed, SWIP works in the opposite direction: the higher the SWIP the better (it should also be pointed out that there are some limitations to SWIP).

Here is a rough estimate of what the results mean to help you to put things in perspective, a key if you will.

.90 and Up: Excellent season. Hall of Fame level.
.70 to .89:  An all-star performance. Worthy of Cy Young consideration.
.50 to .69:  Borderline all-star to decent starting pitcher. A guy you’d like to have on your staff.
.35 to .50:  A guy who should be nothing more than the 3rd or 4th starter with his club.
.20 to .34:  His major league days are likely numbered.
Below .20: Minor leaguer in training.

Let’s take a look at how all major league hurlers performed in 2011.

34,448 Strikeouts
15,018 Walks
43,527.1 IP

So in order to find out the major league average for SWIP during the 2011 season we simply plug the numbers into our simple equation.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP
(34448-15018) / 43527.1
19470 / 43527.1
0.4473
SWIP = 0.45

Last year’s 0.45 mark is a major league best in the 21st century as the rate keeps inching upward.

2011: 0.45 SWIP
2010: 0.43 SWIP
2009: 0.39 SWIP
2008: 0.38 SWIP
2007: 0.37 SWIP
2006: 0.37 SWIP
2005: 0.36 SWIP
2004: 0.36 SWIP
2003: 0.34 SWIP
2002: 0.35 SWIP
2001: 0.38 SWIP
2000: 0.30 SWIP

Here are some notes on the pitchers who tossed at least 160-innings last year.

Here are the leaders for the 2011 season (minimum 162 innings)

0.91 – Zack Greinke
An elite K-arm last season, Greinke led all starting pitchers with a 10.54 K/9 mark, and he walked about a batter fewer, per nine innings, than the average big league arm (2.36 BB/9).

0.84 – Cliff Lee
When you strikeout more than a batter per inning (9.12 per nine), and walk only 1.62 per nine, you are an elite performer.

0.83 – Clayton Kershaw
Massive Ks are his calling card, and last season he walked a mere 2.08 batters per nine.

0.79 – Roy Halladay
Concerns about his velocity in spring notwithstanding, the guy just doesn’t beat himself (1.35 walks per nine).

0.75 – Justin Verlander
Huge arm, huge K totals and a better than expected walk rate (2.04 per nine).

0.71 – Yovani Gallardo, CC Sabathia, Madison Bumgarner
A young K artist, the most consistent lefty in the game, and a young lefty from the NL West.

Some names that stood out, for good or bad.

0.62 – Tim Lincecum
A four year low in K/9 coupled with a four year high in BB/9 has his SWIP headed in the wrong direction.

0.56 – Ted Lilly
Always overlooked on draft day. Lilly simply goes out, doesn’t beat himself, and always seems to strike out more batter than people realize.

0.52 – Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain
Two young arms who ply their trade in the Bay Area. Gio G is the higher upside K artist, but Cain’s ability to walk fewer batters has them tied in this measure.

0.43 – Edwin Jackson
What a shock. Edwin Jackson being average at something (recall that the big league average was 0.45 in 2011).

0.25 – Ivan Nova
I wrote about Nova in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

0.24 – Jeremy Hellickson
I wrote about Hellickson in this Player Profile. SWIP speaks to the concern I expressed there.

Tomorrow I’ll discuss those pitchers who didn’t throw than 160 innings in 2011, and I’ll also have the entire list of hurlers who threw at least 40 innings ranked by their SWIP marks.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Buy Low: All-Star Edition, Pitchers

photo © 2010 U.S. Army Public Affairs Midwest | more info (via: Wylio)

In PART III of my three part look at players to Buy Low on, I’ll wrap up things by taking a look at starting pitchers. Here are five names I would suggest kicking the tires on. Maybe you can buy them at .70 cents on the dollar.

For those of you who missed it, here are the links to my Buy Low articles on Infielders and Outfielders.

Ryan Dempster: 6-6, 5.01 ERA, 102 Ks, 1.44 WHIP in 111.1 IP
First it was a horrible ERA, and now it’s back woes that have conspired to keep the value of Dempster down. Still, the ERA continues to come down. It was at 6.91 nine starts ago. It should continue to come tumble as his xFIP suggests it will. In fact, his current xFIP of 3.43 would be a career best while his FIP is 3.92, right in line with his marks the last two years (3.87 and 3.99). Dempster also has a K/9 rate of 8.25, an amongst pitchers who have thrown 95 innings this year, that’s 19th best in baseball. His BABIP also figures to come down. It’s currently at .326 after 7-straight years under .313. It also appears possible that he could be dealt to another club, and that certainly wouldn’t harm his outlook at all.

Ubaldo Jimenez: 4-8, 4.14 ERA, 95 Ks, 1.30 WHIP in 104.1 IP
On May 28th his ERA was 5.86. Since then he’s made eight starts with an ERA of 2.25. As a result of his recent run, he has allowed two or fewer runs in six of those eight games, his ERA is slowly moving back to the realm of the respectable. Even more telling with his work of late is the fact that he’s walked just 11 batters in those eight starts. As a result of that, and this is bound to surprise most, he’s current K/9 rate (8.19) and BB/9 rate (3.54) are better than his career averages (8.11 and 3.90), as is his FIP (3.46 compared to 3.57). Oh, and his xFIP is 3.59. Know what it was last year? Try 3.60. Is he “back?” Sure seems that way to me, though don’t expect a run to equal what he did in the first half last year.

Ted Lilly: 6-9, 4.79 ERA, 78 Ks, 1.29 WHIP in 107 IP
This is the one guy on this list that can be had on the cheap (he might even be on waivers in your league). I’ll be the first to admit that there isn’t considerable upside to be mined here, but even with his poor work this year he still has a better WHIP than Chris Carpenter (1.30), Matt Garza (1.34) and Madison Bumgarner (1.34). Lilly is apt to let you down, he’s allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last five starts, but over his last 10 starts the other seven times he has taken the hill have results in five games of two or fewer earned runs allowed. He hasn’t pitched appreciably different than he has the past three years (here are his xFIP numbers – 3.90, 3.95 and 3.99 this year), and his 3.55 K/BB ratio is a very strong number (it’s 13th in baseball amongst pitchers with at least 95 innings pitched). There are worse options for your final starting spot in mixed leagues.

Ervin Santana: 4-8, 3.89 ERA, 106 Ks, 1.24 WHIP in 125 IP
This one is all about record. Most people, for whatever reason, stick to the old adage that you can judge a pitcher by his win-loss record. Even those that don’t buy into this line of thought are still going to have a hard time getting past his 4-8 record. What you should see though is an ERA that is better than his career mark (4.34), a WHIP that is better than his career mark (1.31), a K/9 rate that is nearly a batter better than his mark the past two years (6.85 compared to 7.63 this year), and a three year low in his walk rate (2.59 per nine). The stuff is there, the results are there, it’s just that his record hasn’t obliged and followed along.

Max Scherzer: 10-4, 4.69 ERA, 96 Ks, 1.44 WHIP in 111.1 IP
Unlike the others on this list, Scherzer’s numbers look poor while his record looks sharp. There’s no denying that he has been a major letdown this year, but the arm is still dynamic which is why I’d suggest buying low (if you are running guys like Kevin Correia, Jason Hammel and Mike Leake out there, do yourself a favor an add Scherzer). Scherzer has actually improved his walk rate slightly, his 3.07 mark would be a three year low, and his current line drive rate is also slightly below his career 20.0 percent mark (his HR/F ratio is only up 0.4 points as well to 10.7 percent). A few less fly balls would help to even things out a bit, as would a few more Ks (his 7.76 mark is a batter below his 8.78 career level). Will he turn things around in the second half? I honestly don’t know, but I do know that I’ll take the chance on his right wing over others with similarly successful seasons to this point.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 31, 2011

photo © 2008 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Should I give up on Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Morneau and trade them for Kyle Lohse and Justin Masterson?
– @westcoastredsox

We keep waiting for Ubaldo to turn things around, but the wait continues to be an excruciating process. Jimenez is 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA this season, and he’s currently walking 5.33 batters per nine innings, more than a batter worse than his already poor career mark. You simply cannot have success walking that many guys. We keep hearing that his body is healthy, that his issues stem from a mechanical issue, but a look at the radar gun doesn’t lie – his average fastball velocity is down more than three mph this season from where it was the last two years (96 down to 93 mph). Jimenez is still getting his strikeouts, his 7.99 mark per nine is a mere tenth below his career rate, but clearly something just isn’t right. The most distressing news though might be that this isn’t a recent issue, it goes back a long while. Over his last 24 starts Ubaldo has a 4.52 ERA, a 1.38 ERA, a ghastly 4-12 record, and a terrible 1.92 K/BB ratio. Those aren’t the numbers of an ace they are numbers that would normally find you residing on the waiver-wire.

The optimist will say that since May 9th Morneau has hit .289 and he’s finally ready to emerge from his concussion induced slumber. However, the realist in me just can’t accept that. Even though he’s hit nearly .300 the past three weeks, his OBP in that time is .318 and his SLG a sickly .386. Simply put, he isn’t getting on base, and when he does hit the ball the results make him look more like Erick Aybar than an all-star caliber player. Cut the guy all the slack you want, but Morneau is on pace to hit .242 with six homers, 54 RBI and 38 runs scored. I find it hard to suggest to people that he is even worthy of a roster spot in standard 12 team leagues.

Lohse has been a bone of contention for me. There is no disputing that he has been spectacular this year going 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA and a sparkling 0.92 WHIP. He’s also been amazingly consistent allowing more than two earned runs just once in his last 10 starts. Still, I have big time reservations. In more than a decade of work the guy owns a 4.66 ERA – more than double his current rate. I’m not talking about three months or two years, I’m talking more than 10 years of data (he’s never posted a season ERA better than 3.78, and it was his only year ever under 4.00). Lohse is also operating at a 6-year low in his K/9 rate (5.27), a fact that has only been offset by a career best 1.68 BB/9 mark (more than a batter below his 1.72 career rate). He’s also currently operating at one third of his career HR/9 mark of 1.10 at 0.34. Toss in three other salient factors. (1) His current BABIP is .230. He’s never had a mark better than .280 and owns a career rate of .302. (2) His current left on base percentage is 79.6 percent. His career rate is 70.1 percent. (3) He’s been under 120-innings pitched each of the last two years, and three times in the last five years he’s failed to reach 130-innings. I’m not saying it’s impossible that Lohse keeps this up, but it certainly seems like he is fighting against some extremely long odds.

Masterson has exceeded all expectations this season with a 3.07 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 11 starts. Though his K/9 rate is a career low at 6.26, he’s also cut his walk rate by more than half a batter from his career rate down to 3.19 per nine. He also continues to be the master of the ground ball with a 56 percent rate leading to a GB/FB ratio of better than two to one (2.05). A slight regression across the board seems likely, but there is little reason to panic that he will suddenly turn into Luke Hochevar.

If you need pitching depth you can make the deal since I’m just not sold that Morneau will return to his previous glory though know that you aren’t picking up two aces but merely two solid arms.

I need some offense. Should I drop Ted Lilly or Ryan Dempster for Mike Morse?
– @Sport_Fanatic

Lilly hasn’t been as good as expected this year for the Dodgers. At the same time, he has gone at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts, is sporting a 1.29 WHIP and has a strong 3.42 K/BB ratio. There is growing concern about his velocity, it is down for the 4th straight year, which has likely been the primary culprit for the drastic drop in his strikeout rate that has seen the number fall to 5.83 per nine this year (he’s been at 6.84 or better in each of his 12 seasons). He has induced more grounders this season that at any point since 2005 to help mitigate the loss of punchouts, but his fantasy value currently sits on the precipice of irrelevance in a 12 team league until his punchouts come back. The question is, will they?

Dempster allowed 14 runs in two late April starts, but since then he has been very good. In May Dempster has posted a 3-1 record, a 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP an a 7.82 K/9 mark, totals that line up very well with Ryan’s performance from 2008-10: 3.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.20 K/9 mark. As expected, his early season home run woes seem to have stabilized as he has allowed just two homers in his last six outings. Add it all up an, despite a 6.00 ERA, Dempster’s xFIP says hie ERA should be 3.45, a mark that would better his ERA the past two years (it would also be a career best in the xFIP category).

Morse was everyone’s darling after a spring that saw him annihilate pitching to the tune of a .364-9-18 line in just 21 games. Morse then started off the season on fire. Wait, he actually started as if the fire was put out when the games started to count as he hit .224 with one homer in April. Flash forward a month and it has all changed. Morse finds himself in the daily lineup now that Adam LaRoche is out dealing with shoulder woes. Morse has responded to the playing time by hitting .386 with six homers in the month. The truth is that he has been even better of late with a .385 average and five of those homers over the past two weeks. Morse has hit .289 with 22 homers and 63 RBI over his last 394 at-bats, and there is little reason to think he won’t be able to reach those totals this season.

Given Lilly’s advancing age and declining fastball velocity, I’d drop the lefty to add Morse and his white hot bat.

Is Jake Peavy back to being an “ace”? I’m talking skill wise, not injury risk wise.
– @Dmitch4

First off, I don’t think you can remove the injury risk with Peavy. We’re talking about a pitcher who has failed to throw 110-innings the last two years, and one that is coming back from a shoulder procedure that no other pitcher in big league history ever has. Injuries have been, and will continue to be, a major issue for Peavy, there’s simply no way to remove that from the equation.

Second, despite the outwardly positive results (3.24 ERA, 0.88 WHIP), his overall effort simply doesn’t match his previous levels. The easiest way to see this is to simply check out his K/9 rate. The owner of an 8.88 career mark, Peavy was at 8.60 or better each year from 2004-09. Last season that mark dipped to 7.82, and so far this year it’s caved all the way to 5.76. The only reason no one has noticed is that Peavy has walked one guy in four starts. Obviously that isn’t going to continue. He’s also cut his career HR/9 mark by 2/3, and that isn’t going to continue, especially in a home park that is home run friendly.

So to sum it up, no, Peavy is not back to being an “ace.” He’s certainly worth taking a risk on because as we’ve seen when he’s healthy he can be exceedingly effective (hello Erik Bedard), but I just can’t trust him given his track record the past few years.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Stocking Stuffers

My family loves the holidays, and Christmas Eve holds a special place in our hearts. It is the one day of the year that everyone comes together. At last count, that means 29 of us will be at my parents home on Friday to celebrate family, friendship and the holiday. I hope that all of you out there have a place that you will be this weekend, surrounded by friends and loved ones even if you don’t celebrate the holiday.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

Does Johnny Damon have anything left?
Word on the street is that the Yankees don’t hate the idea of bring Johnny Damon back to New York. While all fans of the Yankees should be worried about the sad state of their starting lineup, it doesn’t hurt for them to be looking into potentially cheap options to help to bolster their offense. However, would Damon accept a job that basically entailed being a 4th OF option, DH type? With Jorge Posada slated for the starting role at DH, and an outfield of Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher (I’m jealous he married the beautiful Joanna Garcia) and Brett Gardner, there just wouldn’t seem to be any shot at substantial at-bats for another bat with the Yanks. Damon is 429 hits from 3,000. If he were to take a part-time role he would have almost no shot of reaching that historic mark. The question is – does he deserve a full-time role and a shot at history?

Damon hit .271 last season .016 points below his lifetime mark. Was that dip a fluke? I won’t go as far as to say that, but it also isn’t time to panic. He had a 1.19 BB/K mark in ’10, just slightly below his 1.27 career mark. His 18.8 percent line drive rate was slightly below his 20.0 percent career mark, but not hide the women and children bad. Neither of those two numbers says he is finished. Damon also sported an 11.3 BB-rate which tied his career best rate that was, incidentally, posted in ’09. His K-rate of 16.7 percent was poor, the second worst mark of his career, but still a manageable number. In total, Damon really didn’t lose as much last season as it appeared on the surface, especially if you lay part of the blame in his dip in homers on a tough home ballpark in Detroit.

I’m not saying he is going to hit .280 with 15 homers, 90 runs and 20 steals like he used to, but I think he can still get on base, score some runs, and do enough at the dish and on the base paths to help out someone in a full-time role.

Should anyone want Joe Blanton?
When the Phillies added Cliff Lee they broke the bank to set up the most magnificent foursome in the game (you can read about the group in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Any team would die to have a fifth starter as talented as Joe Blanton, but apparently the Phillies will need to move him so as to have some money available to address in-season needs in 2011. Blanton is due $8.5 million in each of the next two seasons which is a lot of money for Blanton, or is it? With guys like Ted Lilly and Jorge De La Rosa signing deals that will see them make more than $10 million a year, is Blanton really that bad an option at $8.5 million? The two lefites certainly have better power stuff, and therefore more fantasy upside, but in terms of real world value, it’s a lot closer between the three for the following reason – Blanton racks up innings year after year.

De La Rosa has one season in his career with more than 135-innings pitched.

Lilly has two seasons of 200-IP. He has also gone for 175-innings in each of the last five seasons.

Blanton has gone for 175 innings in each of the past six years, and five times he has thrown at least 194.

Clearly it’s not cartwheel time merely because of the innings totals, but Blanton is the right-handed Barry Zito at half the price, and I can think of a boatload of pitchers that offer less at a more substantial hit to the pocket book. If the Phillies are willing to eat a bit of the money Blanton is due, look for plenty of teams to be interested.

Bruce Chen – any interest?
One of the better free agent pitchers still on the market – who would have thought that would have been an accurate statement 12 months ago – Chen went 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP for the Royals. So why did the Royals decide not to retain their biggest winner from 2010? First off, it’s cause they are the Royals. Nuff said. Secondly, they are actually making a smart decision, shockingly, in choosing not to overpay for a guy who really isn’t a very good pitcher. Chen posted a 6.29 K/9 mark in 2010, the second worst total of his 12 year career. He walked 3.66 batters per nine innings – above his 3.53 career mark. The resulting 1.72 K/BB mark is well into the “danger zone” unless that pitcher is a ground ball wonder. Chen isn’t as he has allowed a GB/FB ratio below 0.75 in each of the last four seasons. Chen also posted a below big league average 8.1 percent HR/F rate which just so happens to be a career best and roughly 60 percent of his career mark of 13.3 percent.

Give the Royals credit for not doing anything crazy – like ceding to Chen’s desire for a multi-year deal.

And with that I’m out for the next two days. I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday Season. Give a loved one a hug and a kiss and celebrate the wonder that is this magical time of year.

By Ray Flowers

NL Cy and an Import

NL Cy Young Controversy?

I just don’t get it sometimes. It could be the booze or it could be the fact that I’m usually only half paying attention when I write given that I have about 867 tasks a day to complete, but how in the world did the Baseball Writers Association of America name Roy Halladay the unanimous Cy Young Award winner in the NL? I admit it, I selected Halladay as my winner in the piece Who is the NL Cy Young?, but as I pointed out in that piece, Halladay’s numbers were almost matched by the Cardinals ‘Adam Wainwright. Check it out (you can access all the numbers by clicking on the link to the original piece).

Halladay had one more win than Wainwright.
Halladay’s ERA was 0.02 worse than Wainwright.
Halladay’s WHIP was 0.01 better than Wainwright.
Halladay struck out fewer batters per nine than Wainwright.
Halladay allowed more homers per nine than Wainwright.
Halladay was only 0.04 better than Wainwright in GB/FB ratio.
Halladay basically doubled Wainwright in K/BB.

I don’t know about you, but those numbers just don’t scream out unanimous selection. Like I wrote Halladay was still my choice to win the award, but I’m just shocked that no one gave a first place nod to Wainwright.

Three other notes that are everywhere but needs to be mentioned nonetheless. (1) Halladay became the 5th pitcher to win the Cy Young Award in both leagues as he joins Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Gaylord Perry. (2) Halladay became the 7th Phillie to win the award. (3) Halladay was just the 13th unanimous choice in the NL.

Oh, and before moving on, here is an interesting note for the bridesmaid, Mr. Wainwright. Since he finished second in the Cy Young voting, his options for 2012 and 2013 will become automatically activated – as long as he doesn’t finish the 2011 season on the DL. If he can just stay healthy he will be guaranteed $9 million in ’12 and $12 million in ’13 – plus be eligible for bonuses based on his Cy Young finishes.

Kuroda Re-Signs with Dodgers

Hiroki Kuroda decided to remain with the Dodgers for at least one more season after signing a 1-year, $12 million deal (rumors are that he might return to Japan for the 2012 season which is why he signed for only one year). I find that number off since Kuroda made $13 million last season and because of the fact that Ted Lilly, also of the Dodgers, recently signed a 3-year, $33 million deal. I will say this, the 35 year old Kuroda pitched very well last season. Sure he went only 11-13, but the numbers were mighty impressive.

His 3.39 ERA was better than the 3.43 mark of Tim Lincecum.

His 196.1 innings were more than Wandy Rodriguez, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Sanchez to name but a few.

His 1.16 WHIP was better than Clayton Kershaw (1.18), Johan Santana (1.18) and Chris Carpenter (1.18) to name but a few.

His .243 BAA was better than Ryan Dempster (.244), Roy Halladay (.245) and Brett Myers (.248) to name but a few.

Face it, Kuroda is a solid pitcher who has shown no sign of decline as he hits his mid 30′s (for one, his K/9 rate was a career best at 7.29, well above his 6.56 career mark), even if his career record of 28-30 would lead you to another conclusion.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: July 22, 2010

(1) Angels deal for Alberto Callaspo, give up Sean O’Sullivan and William Smith. Rick Ankiel activated.

(2) Jamie Moyer has sprained UCL (grade 2), might need TJ Surgery.

(3) Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Brett Myers, Ted Lilly on the block.

(4) Edison Volquez lit up by Nationals.

(5) Josh Johnson, 13-straight starts two or fewer earned runs.

(6) Bobby Jenks removed from closers role.

(7) Brian Roberts could return as early as Friday.

(8) Jacoby Ellsbury takes BP.

By Ray Flowers