2012 Positional Review – Third Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

2012 THIRD BASE Top-10

1 Evan Longoria
2 Jose Bautista
3 Ryan Zimmerman
4 Kevin Youkilis
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 David Wright
7 Adrian Beltre
8 Pablo Sandoval
9 Alex Rodriguez
10 Michael Young

Longoria performed as expected when on the field hitting .289 with 17 homers and 55 RBIs in just 74 games. Of course, it was just 74 games as a leg issue limited him for a huge portion of the year. One of those first round selections that didn’t live up to his draft day cost.

Bautista, just like Longoria, was exactly what was expected when on the field as he blasted 27 homers with 65 RBIs and 64 runs scored in a mere 92 games. Of course, his average fell back to the doldrums (.241) as I always thought it would. For 2013 he will only qualify in the outfield.

Zimmerman hit. 224 in April and had just two homers on June 1st. Awful right? Despite that start, in the end it was a “normal” Ryan Zimmerman season, i.e., a damn good one. When it was all said and done he hit .282 with 25 homers, 95 RBIs and 93 runs scored. Damn impressive considering the start he had.

Youkilis played for both Sox this year, and he actually wasn’t all that bad in Chicago as he hit 15 long balls with 46 RBIs and 47 runs scored in just 80 games played. That’s 30-90-90 in a full season folks. Too bad he hit .233 with the Red Sox and .236 with the Whites.

Ramirez is always taken later on draft day than he should be. He went out in his first year in Milwaukee and hit .300 with 27 homers, 105 RBIs and 92 runs scored (not to mention a career best 50 doubles). Hell, he even stole nine bases. Once again he was a rock of offensive production from the hot corner.

Wright hit only .258 with a .750 OPS in the second half. That’s terrible. Still, how can you turn away from a guy who hit .306 with 21 homers, 93 RBIs, 91 runs and 15 steals? Rumors of him being washed up simply weren’t remotely accurate.

Beltre had the second best season of his career hitting .321 with 36 bombds, 102 ribbies and 95 runs scored. His owners won’t forget his mad dash to the finish either as he hit .345 with 11 homers over his last 29 games.

Sandoval struggled with yet another hammate bone issue that required surgery, and he continued to gain weight at an alarming rate. He hit .283 with 63 RBIs in just 396 at-bats, but there are a ton of reasons why Sandoval shouldn’t be drafted too highly next season. Get it, a “ton” of reasons?

Rodriguez had hit 30 homers with 100 RBIs each year from from 1998-2010, a major league record 13-straight seasons. Last year he slumped to 16-62 in 99 games, and this year he fell even further with 18 homers and 57 RBIs in 122 contests. At least he stole 13 bases to give him a tiny bit of value. OK, I’m stretching.

Young had a solid end to the year hitting .313 over his final 31 games, but that still left his season long average at .277, his first sdeason under .280 since 2002. He also failed to reach double-digit homers for the first time in five years, and his 67 runs batted in were also his lowest mark since 2002. For a player who is 36 years old it’s fair to wonder just how much Young will be able to “bounce back” in 2013.

Hit: Aramis Ramirez (#5), Brett Lawrie (#12)
I list Lawrie because I believe I had him lower than any other source I saw this season (I know of a couple of websites that listed him as a top-30 overall player this season). Lawrie had a solid effort hitting .273 with 11 homers, 48 RBIs, 73 RBIs and 13 steals, but based upon most people’s expectations that effort was viewed as a monumental failire. It should not have been.

Miss: Kevin Youkilis
Michael Young wasn’t too far behind either.

By Ray Flowers

Third Base: A Wasteland?

The assumption in 2012 is that third base is a shallow position in fantasy baseball. Over at MockDraftCentral people seem to be agreeing with that line of thought as everyone is jumping in early to roster their man at the hot corner. There are nine third baseman going in the top-85 selections, and that doesn’t include Jose Bautista who would bring that number to ten (he’s listed as an outfielder though he obviously qualifies at third base). After that group there are three other third base eligible players going in picks 85-200… a vast span of time for only three third sackers to be drafted. So what’s going on at third base? Some thoughts follow.

Last year only three third base eligible performers hit .300: Michael Young (.338), Aramis Ramirez (.306) and Jose Bautista (.302).

Last year four third base eligible performers hit 30 homers: Bautista (43), Mark Reynolds (37), Adrian Beltre (32) and Evan Longoria (31).

Last year only three third base eligible performers posted 100 runs batted in: Young (106), Beltre (105) and Bautista (103).

Last year only one third base eligible player had 90 runs scored: Bautista (105).

All told, shockingly, there were three third base eligible players who hit .270 with 20 homers, 75 RBI and 75 runs scored. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but only three guys were able to hit all three benchmarks (Bautista, Beltre and Ramirez)? Clearly there is a lack of stardom at the hot corner, or is there?

In 2012 injuries limited Pablo Sandoval to 117 games, David Wright to 102, Ryan Zimmerman to 101 and Alex Rodriguez to 99.  What if all of those guys play 140 games in 2012? That would give us eight guys to count on (in addition to the three above players who hit all four benchmarks).

That group of seven doesn’t include Evan Longoria who is going in the top-15 in every draft this season. That’s gets us up to eight third sackers.

Kevin Youkilis appeared in only 120 games last year, but the pace he set, if he played 145 games, would equate to 21 homers, 97 RBI and 82 runs. That’s nine quality third baseman.

Mark Reynolds may only be a .225 type of hitter, but his power and run production is elite. The last three years he has hit 113 homers, the most at the position. He has 273 RBI, the third highest total at the position. He’s also scored 261 runs, second to Longoria (274) amongst third sackers. That’s 10 quality third basemen.

Brett Lawrie is going off the board as the 5th third baseman ahead of Arod. I may not think he deserves to go that high despite oodles of talent, but even if I were to knock him down the board substantially he’s still a guy who everyone could agree is worthy of a top-12 pick.

Though Michael Young hit only 11 homers last season he hit .338, knocked in 106 runners and scored 88 times. Pretty sure he belongs in the top-12 at the hot corner.

So that’s 12 third basemen that you can pretty easily turn to. If you’re in a 12 team league that means nearly everyone who comes to the dance will have a hottie to hold (and this discussion hasn’t even included guys like Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez who will be playing third base this year).

You want more love at third?

David Freese was the MVP of the world during the playoffs last year. For more on Freese see his Player Profile.

Ryan Roberts hit 19 homers, stole 18 bases and he scored 86 runs, the third highest total at the position.

Mike Moustakas, according to most observers, is a 25-90 bat waiting to happen.

Chase Headley has the potential to go 15/15 and score plenty of runs with his approach. OK, maybe that’s a stretch, but he still has talent (see his Player Profile).

I could go on and talk about former elite level prospects like Mat Gamel and Pedro Alvarez and why it makes sense to take a shot on both late in drafts this season, but I think the point has been made. While third base may be a little top heavy, I’d argue that unless you’re in a deep league that you should feel pretty confident that there are enough men who man the hot corner to go around.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: David Freese

Ask anyone in St. Louis and they will tell you that David Freese is akin to Perseus of Clash of the Titans fame. Why do I say that? Did you see his postseason run in 2011? Try an 18 game stretch that included five homers, 21 RBI, a .397 batting average an a 1.258 OPS. It was, simply put, one of the greatest playoff performances in the history of the game. Does that mean that Freese will be an elite level option at the hot corner in the coming season?

Freese may not have always wanted to play baseball, he’s quit playing in the past and has had some alcohol related issues off the field, but there is no disputing that when he has been on the diamond he has been very good. In 399 minor league games Freese has hit .307 with a .915 OPS. He’s also driven in 306 runners while scoring 273 times in those 1,471 at-bats. Those are some impressive numbers are they not? Moving up to the big league level, Freese has appeared in about half as many games (184), but he’s continued to hit. Over the course of 604 at-bats Freese has been able to bat .298. Even more impressive is the fact that he has hit at least .296 in each of his three seasons (.323, .296 and .297). Given that we’ve seen him be a .300 hitter for the duration of his professional career, there is little doubt that he could reach that level in 2012. One caveat. As a Cardinal he’s posted a wildly high BABIP of .365 and 22.9 line drive percentage for his short career. It’s certainly possible that he will be able to sustain both of those numbers moving forward, but if you’ve read any of my work over the years you know how nervous I get when someone is over .350 and 22.0 percent – even if they seemingly have shown an ability to replicate those numbers.

Never a speedster, Freese has had all kinds of issues with his ankles the past few years rendering him as a non entity in the stolen base column (he’s just two of three in steal attempts in his career). However, most third basemen aren’t known for their speed, so this makes him more average than someone to worry about on draft day.

The main issue with Freese is two-fold. (1) Can his body withstand the rigors of playing 150 games (to this point it hasn’t seemed like his body can). (2) Does he have enough power to be a solid option at the hot corner? Freese hit 26 homers in 2007 at Triple-A Memphis, but the PCL is a notorious hitter’s league, though he did average 23 homers per 500 minor league at-bats. That power hasn’t really shown itself in the bigs though as he hit 10 homers last season in 333 at-bats and 15 in 604 at-bats with the Cards. Will that rate improve? If could, but given that his career ground ball rate is 50.5 percent, and that he owns a 1.90 GB/FB ratio, his profile is way more Chone Figgins than it is Aramis Ramirez. The bottom line is that unless he hit a whole bunch more balls in the air, and I’m talking increasing his pathetic 26.6 percent fly ball ratio to at least the league average (37 percent), he has virtually not shot at  blasting 20 long balls.

It’s all about value with Freese in 2012. If someone at the draft table remembers the 2011 playoffs like they were yesterday, the cost for Freese will likely be prohibitive. It would also be advisable not to spend like Freese is a lock for a .300-20-90 season – he isn’t. But, if you can wait at third base, realize the type of hitter that Freese really is, and draft him accordingly, he could end up being a very solid hot corner option if you are able to add power bats at other positions.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Chase Headley

Chase Headley has always had a fan at BaseballGuys.com. If you purchased a copy of the 2011 BBGuys’ Draft Guide, and if you didn’t shame on you, you will recall my words of encouragement about Headley (this years Draft Guide will likely drop at the end of January or early February for those of you itching to get it in your hands). Headley didn’t live up to expectations in terms of his fantasy output in 2011, but that doesn’t mean that he didn’t show some growth. Read on for my explanation of what I’m talking about an if there is enough here to make him someone to target in 2012 (I broke down his new teammate, Carlos Quentin, in this Player Profile).

Headley will have corner infield value in mixed leagues because he isn’t afraid to steal a bag. Each of the past three years he has stolen at least 10 bags, and his three year average is a cool 13 thefts a season, the same total he posted last year. Amongst third base eligible players only Eduardo Nunez (22), Ryan Roberts (18) and Mike Aviles (14) had more last season. Don’t misinterpret what I’m saying – I’m not saying Headley is some base stealing marvel, but he does steal a fair amount of bags relative to others at the third base position.

Headley hit a career best .289 last season, better than the marks posted by Placido Polanco (.277), Chipper Jones (.275), Martin Prado (.260), Kevin Youkilis (.258) and Roberts (.249). That certainly helped to boost Headley’s value in the fantasy game. While OBP isn’t counted in the majority of leagues, Headley was also a strong performer there. Headley’s .374 OBP was the highest mark of any third baseman in the National League (minimum 400 plate appearances). He can thank the fact that he pushed his walk rate to a career best level (11.8 percent), two percentage points above his career rate. He still struck out 21 percent of the time, but the result was a 0.57 BB/K mark, the best of his career. As you can see, Headley produced a strong average and got on base at a great clip in 2011 compared to other third sackers – and there is value in that.

There’s a pink elephant in the room though, and the number on that tutu is four, as in the homer total of Headley in 2011. As a third baseman, Headley would have to be performing at an Ichiro-like level to overcome a mere four homers, and clearly Headley didn’t so his fantasy value was sunk last season. We can partly blame the fact that injury limited him to just 113 games, but that’s like using a band aid for a broken leg. The fact is that Headley has never learned how to lift the ball. He raps out extra base hits, he’s averaged 29 doubles the last three years, an as we’ve see he produces hits, but he doesn’t hit the ball in the air. Chase’s fly ball rate has regressed the past two years, down from 38.3 percent to 36.0 and 32.3 percent, which is well below the big league average of about 37 percent. So he doesn’t hit enough fly balls to be a big time home run hitter. Second, his HR/F ratio is just 7.0 percent for his career, and the last two years he’s failed to reach 6.5 percent. You can certainly blame him for that, but his home ball yard in San Diego also isn’t doing him any favors. Petco was 12th out of 16 NL stadiums last year according to the HR Park Idicies, and the past three years Petco is 15th in the NL. If Headley were to move out of San Diego a run to 15 homers seems reasonable, though that’s still nothing to get overly excited about when we’re talking about a third baseman hitting 15 homers.

The best thing that could happen to Chase would be for him to be dealt to another club. He seemingly profiles very well as a #2 hitter, but he might be best suited as a 6th or 7th place hitter on a strong team. If he was allowed to spend his home games in an offensive leaning park a 15 homer, 15 steal season could be possible. Toss in a .280-ish batting average and then we’d be talking. However, if he isn’t dealt out of San Diego, Headley would likely be best served as a solid third base option in NL-only leagues. Headley might still produce enough to be a solid corner infield option in deep mixed leagues, after all his career bests would lead to a .289-12-65-77-17 fantasy line, but he’s more of a speculative play in that format.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Capsules: First Base, Third Base

You’re killing me.

I say that with all due respect mind you. Let me tell you what I mean.

I sit at my computer all day, every day, typing away answering emails, writing articles, researching etc. It’s a rather sad existence at times (who am I kidding, how great is it that I get to work in my slippers?). I’m used to long days, 12 hours is often the norm, so I’m not unfamiliar with onerous work schedules. So what did I mean when I led off this piece with “you’re killing me?”

Simply put, my mailbox has been flooded with requests for the FREE player capsules I’m giving away. I’m borderline ecstatic at the response I’ve received, but at the same time I’m sending so many of these files back to you, the reader, that I needed to come up with a better plan moving forward. Hence, I’m going to be combing positions in order to cut down on the emails I’ll need to send out.

In case you’ve missed it so far, here is how this all works.

(1) You stop by BaseballGuys.com – Fantasy Baseball Blog.

(2) You’ll get a chance to review a handful of the players at the position of the day.

(3) You’ll find a CODE at the end of the article.

(4) You’ll take that CODE and email it to me at: fantasyfandom@yahoo.com

(5) I’ll send you back a neat and tidy PDF file with the top-50 or so players at the position that is under discussion for that day.

How does that sound to you?

The best part?

How about the cost… it’s 100% FREE.

All I ask is that you tell a friend.

FIRST BASE / THIRD BASE
Again, to lighten the workload a bit, I figured I would combine corner infielders (1B, 3B) today.

Here are a few examples of what you will receive in the PDF.

Derrek Lee
When healthy he has rarely been great but he is almost always very good. In each of his last 10 healthy seasons he has hit at least 19 homers with 70 runs and 70 RBI. Those numbers don’t sound exciting, but since 2000 his total of 10 such seasons leads all first basemen. Age is catching up with him, and he never runs anymore, but he is a safe option if you don’t reach.

Aubrey Huff
Huff and the Rally Thong helped lead the Giants to the World Series, and they’ll both be back for two more years in San Francisco. One of only four first basemen to hit .290 with 25 homers, 85 RBI and 100 runs, Huff rebounded from a disastrous 2009 to post his 7th 20-homer season and his 6th season of 85 RBI. If you pay for a repeat you should be on fairly solid ground.

Pablo Sandoval
Thinking the way to major league success was paved with pizza and profiteroles, Sandoval’s weight was/is a major issue. The Giants have put Pablo on notice that if he can’t see his toes, he could be sent to the minors. Just a year removed from an all-star caliber season, Sandoval would benefit from a more patient approach. Can weight loss help that?

The Corner Infielder code is: Plentiful Power

One last thing. For those of you looking for some baseball talk, you can click on this link to the DSD Podcast. I talked with Aaron and Karter about Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and other topics around major league baseball.

By Ray Flowers