Player Profile: Austin Jackson

The Tigers’ Austin Jackson had an impressive rookie season in 2010. He hit .293, stole 27 bases, and scored 103 runs while playing strong defense. For a follow up his effort receded to .249, 22 and 90 in 2011. Jackson not only reclaimed his ’10 glory in 2012, but he blew past that effort (save for a drastic dip in steals). Where are we now that we have three years of data to look at with the fleet of foot center fielder?

In 2012 Jackson hit a career best .300. He hit 16 homers after hitting 14 the first two years. He knocked in a career best 65 runs, 21 more than in either of his first two seasons. He scored 103 runs to tie his rookie mark. He also hit double-digit triples for the third straight year and substantially boosted his OBP (.377 compared to .331 his first two years) and SLG (.479 compared to .387 his first two years). How did all this good come about?

Any time I see a guy’s batting average spike I look at his plate discipline, his BABIP and his line drive rate. I see some interesting things with Jackson. Here are his three year numbers in each category.

2010: 0.28 BB/K, .396 BABIP, 24.2 line drive rate
2011: 0.31 BB/K, .340 BABIP, 16.8 line drive rate
2012: 0.50 BB/K, .371 BABIP, 23.8 line drive rate

First off, the significant growth he flashed in the BB/K ratio in his third year is huge. Year three saw Jackson walk more than ever before while at the same time striking out fewer than in either of his first two seasons. It’s acceptable for a 20 homer hitter to strikeout out in more than quarter of his at-bats (his 2012 mark was 21.7 percent), but it’s pretty tough to justify that when a batter is averaging 10 homers through three seasons. At least he’s slightly better than the big league average now. Let’s hope he can sustain that and his encore effort doesn’t see that number spike.

Second, look that BABIP. Wow is right. Jackson led baseball in 2010 and I predicted his batting average would fall in 2011 (see how eerily accurate my predictions were in Second Year Players). In 2011 his BABIP regressed substantially but it was still a dominating number (one that ranked him 19th in baseball). That’s still pretty damn good is it not? In 2012 Jackson split the difference of his first two seasons, in fact his .371 BABIP was one point above his career average through three seasons. Where did that .371 BABIP place him in 2012? How about fifth in baseball. So here is the pertinent question. Is his .370 career mark a sustainable pace? History says no. One of the five greatest hitters of all-time, Ty Cobb‘s career number is .378. Jackson is obviously no Cobb. A more modern comparison might be Ichiro Suzuki whose career BABIP is .347. I’m not saying it’s impossible for Jackson to do what he has done in two of his three seasons. I’m merely pointing out that no one does this. No one. Odds are strong that Jackson’s “down” 2011 is more likely to be the norm moving forward. Can his growth at the plate, more walks and less strikeouts, help him to maintain a near .300 batting average if his BABIP is merely historic and not otherworldly? Something to think about.

Jackson hit 16 homers last season after going deep 14 times his first two seasons. Why the growth an is it sustainable? Watching Jackson play it’s hard not to be impressed by his talent. There are also plenty of baseball people that thought Jackson could be a 20 homer guy at some point in his career. Therefore, I’m inclined to say last years growth was legit. Against that belief though is that the numbers don’t support it. Jackson hit 34 percent of his batted balls into the air. That’s just slightly above his career 32.3 percent mark and still below the league average fly ball rate (36 percent or so). So if he didn’t jack the ball into the air he must have jumped that HR/F ratio then. That it did. Jackson’s first two seasons saw him post marks of 3.3 and 6.9 percent. Add those together and you get 10.2 percent. In 2012 his HR/F ratio was 11.4 percent. The raw number isn’t huge, the league average is usually in the 9-10 percent range, but the guy doubled his career rate, and that’s not something I can categorically say he will do yet again in 2013 (by that I mean hold on tot the 11.4 percent rate). I’m leaning more toward saying the power is legit than arguing against it, but I’m not 100 percent sold yet.

All of the good we’ve been discussing helps to alleviate some of the concern with Jackson’s steal total. After 49 thefts his first two seasons, seasons of 27 and 22, Jackson’s steal total was cut in half down to 12. Not just that, after being caught only 11 times his first two seasons he was caught nine times in 2012. So not only was his steal total was cut in half while his caught stealing rate doubled. That’s not something that anyone wants to see. There’s no reason at all to think that Jackson can’t return to the 20 steal level in 2013, but just like his homer total, I’m not ready to call it a lock given his struggles last season.

Jackson doesn’t have the power or speed to be an elite fantasy performer. That said, his overall game is extremely impressive. Fueled by growth in his plate discipline, Jackson is coming off his best season in year three. Could year four see him rise to even further heights of glory? Certainly, but as I’ve noted a couple of times, I don’t consider his ascension to an even higher plane in 2013 to be a lock.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Torii Hunter

Torii Hunter is coming off of one of the best seasons of his distinguished career, and the 37 year old realized this might be his last contract of significance, if not the last contract, of his big league career. He said he wanted to find a home where he could play full-time and have a chance to win. He got his wish Wednesday when it was announced that he signed a 2-year, $26 million deal to join the Tigers (for more on the deal and how it came to pass read the entertaining story of The Tale of Torii the Tiger). His signing will obviously also ding the value of Brennan Boesch, Quintin Berry, Avisail Garcia and Andy Dirks who will now struggle for at-bats in Detroit, but what does this mean for Hunter and his fantasy value in 2013?

Hunter appears likely to play right field and hit second in the Tigers order behind Austin Jackson and in front of Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez. There isn’t a better spot in any order that Hunter could have landed in, period.

Hunter started his career in 1997 though his first two seasons he totaled all of 19 plate appearances. Still, he’s been around forever, and he’ll turn 38 right after the 2013 All-Star Game. Should his age be a concern? You bet your rear end it should, and that’s easy enough to see if we look at two main components of his game – power and speed.

Hunter hit 16 home runs in 2012, his lowest total since going deep 14 times in 2005 (he appeared in just 98 games that year). The 2012 season was his first of 138 games played in which he didn’t go deep 20 times (he’s appeared in 138 games ten times). Besides the onset of age, why did his homer total fall? Let’s look at his fly ball ratio. Here are the marks the past four years: 36.3, 33.6, 33.3 and 25.4 percent. Last years mark is clearly an outlier for a guy who owns a 34.4 percent career mark, but the trend is unmistakable – he’s not lifting the ball like he used to. Now he missed his career HR/F ratio of 15.8 percent by only two tenths last year so when he does lift the ball he still goes deep with the same regularity. Unfortunately for Hunter though, Comerica Park was just 17th in homers in 2012 (it’s not exactly a launching pad).

Hunter has long been an effective base stealer. He’s never stolen more than 23 bases, and has only hit 20 steals three times, but he’s still a threat for double-digit thefts, or is he? After a run of 6-straight seasons of basepath success from 2004-09, Hunter stole at least 12 bases each season and five times he swiped at least 18, he’s kinda stopped running. The last three years he has failed to reach double-digits, and it’s not just his steal total that has shrunk, but his effectiveness has vanished as he’s converted 23 steals while being caught an unconscionable 20 times. Why Mike Scioscia ever even let him run is beyond me.

‘So the power is slipping and the steals are too, but Ray, the guy hit .300 last year so he’s still valuable in the fantasy game.’ I wouldn’t disagree with that sentiment, but let’s not take it too far. Yes Hunter hit .300 for the first time, he hit .313, but the guy is 37 years old. He had also failed to hit .282 the previous two seasons. He owns a career batting average of .277. His BABIP of .389 in 2012 is only, oh, .059 points higher than it has ever been before (career .307). His line drive rate of 22.6 percent was also a career best, just the second time he even posted a mark of 20 percent, and light years above his 17.8 percent career mark. Add in a career worst 0.29 BB/K mark and you’ve got yourself one of the most fortunate .300 hitters you will ever see. Hunter will not hit .300 again in 2013.

As I noted above, Hunter couldn’t have done a better job insulating himself with elite batters. If he does hit second for the Tigers he will have a very productive season. His RBI total will likely fall, but he should have no problem keeping his runs scored mark high. Still, be careful not to overvalue the logo on his jersey on draft day – this is still a 37 year old who has seen his power and speed decline, and one that has no shot to replicate his batting average from his last season in Anaheim.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Doug Fister

For four months in 2011 Doug Fister was who we thought he was. Then, mysteriously, he was dealt to the Tigers and somehow he channeled his inner Greg Maddux. What pitcher should we be expecting in 2012 – the solid innings eater or the historically elite control artist we saw in Motown?

This 6’8”, lanky right-hander (he weighs 210 lbs) was a moderate option on the hill for his two and a half year run with the Mariners. Sure he posted a solid 3.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over his 378 innings, but he also went 12-30, allowed more hits than innings pitched (389) and struck out just 5.2 batters per nine innings (remember, the major league average is about seven per nine). So, how did this league average arm, over 60 games mind you (59 starts), suddenly morph into an elite hurler with the Tigers?

I don’t put much stock in W-L records, you all know that by now, but Fister did go 8-1 in his 11 games with the Tigers. Brushing that aside, what about his performance on the hill? Fister posted a 1.79 ERA and 0.84 WHIP for the Tigers. Uh, yeah, not sustainable, but you already knew that. Even the most optimistic of prognosticators would probably say that a 2.83 ERA and 1.03 WHIP are wildly out of control expectations for Fister, and those numbers are his year long totals from 2011. Hopefully you come to BaseballGuys regularly and I don’t have to say anything more than this – there is no way that Fister remotely approaches those ratios in 2012, it just isn’t going to happen.

So how did Fister have all that success with the Tigers?

First off, the competition wasn’t exactly elite. In his 11 appearances with the Tigers he faced the Orioles once, the Rays once, the Athletics once and the Indians four times. Those teams weren’t exactly offensive powerhouses.

Second, Fister didn’t allow many long balls dropping his already impressive career HR/9 rate of 0.7 down to 0.5. Fister generates a good deal of ground balls, 46.5 percent for his career, but he’s also been aided in keeping the ball in the yard by favorable home pitching environments (don’t forget that the porous infield defense the team figures to run out there this season could also hurt Fister). Last season Comerica Park was completely neutral in terms of the long ball with a Park Indices mark of 100 (the number 100 signifies that the park was exactly neutral not favoring either the hitter or the pitcher) which doesn’t explain why he was so fortunate in the HR/9 column. A regression is coming perhaps?

Third, Fister pushed his poor 5.5 K/9 mark with the Mariners, which was an exact match for his career rate, up to 7.3 with the Tigers. It’s pretty darn rare that any hurler is able to add two batters to his K/9 mark, especially when we have nearly 400 innings at the lower rate. I’m not saying that Fister won’t be able to hold on to  some of that in 2012, but the smart money would certainly be on that mark dipping back down into the six’s if not the five’s.

Fourth, and this is the most remarkable part of his 2011 work, he simply didn’t walk anyone with the Tigers. A career 1.9 BB/9 arm with the Mariners – an excellent mark given that the big league average is about 3.1 – Fister dropped that mark to 0.6 per nine as he walked a total of five batters in 70.1 innings. Remember when I mentioned Greg Maddux earlier? Widely regarded as one of the best pitchers of all-time (mostly for his pinpoint control), Maddux had a 1.8 BB/9 mark for his career an only once did he ever post a BB/9 mark under 1.0 (it was 0.8 in 1997). Simply put, Fister has as much chance of repeating that number over a full season as I do of convincing you all that I know exactly how many base hits that Brandon Inge will rack up this year.

Fifth, I’m all about K/BB ratios and how important they are (see my recent work on SWIP), but come on now. Fister’s 11.40 mark was, get this, four times greater than his career mark of 2.76. Speaking of SWIP, even with all of Fister’s success at keeping the free passes completely removed from his game, his SWIP mark of 0.50 was barely better than the league average of 0.45.

The bottom line with Fister is this. He was out of his mind locked in the final two months of 2011. He has no chance to produce at that level over 30 starts in 2012. None. Could he match his season long totals from last season? It’s certainly possible. Still, a 6.07 K/9 mark is nothing to get excited about in the fantasy game (his 2011 season long total). Second, his xFIP says he was a 3.61 ERA arm last season, not the 2.83 mark his raw ERA suggested. Third, his BABIP was down .030 points from 2010 despite the fact that he gave up more line drives than at any point in his three year career (the 20.4 line drive was a bit above the big league average of 19-20 percent while his BABIP was below the big league average of about .300). Those two factors don’t point to him holding batters to a .237 batting average yet again (don’t forget that Fister could also be handicapped by what figures to be a less than average group of defenders in the infield).

Fister is a solid reserve round add but he unlikely to match the overall totals he posted last season with no chance at all of continuing the elite level production he offered as a Tiger in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Delmon Young

In 2010 Delmon Young was a star. Not only did he finish one hit from a .300 season, he also bashed a career best 21 homers and socked 46 doubles. Young also knocked in 112 runs, the 8th highest total in baseball, more than Robinson Cano (109), Mark Teixeira (108), Ryan Howard (108), Evan Longoria (104), Ryan Braun (103), Matt Holliday (103) etc. So how is it that Young is currently going off the board as the 65th outfielder taken with an ADP of 233 overall according to MockDraftCentral?

The most obvious answer as to why Young is being drafted after guys like Lorenzo Cain, Seth Smith and Lucas Duda is that Young failed to follow up his breakout 2010 effort last season. Young slumped to a career worst .268, hit only 12 homers, scored just 54 runs and nearly saw his RBI total cut in half as he produced just 64. As I talk/write about all the time, people have really short attention spans at times. However, one would hope that if a formerly impressive performer struggled but turns things on toward the end of the year, that people would remember that. Apparently that is not the case with Young. After joining the Tigers Young, who had four homers and 32 RBI in 84 games with the Twins, went on to blast eight homers with 32 RBI in 40 games with the Tigers. Delmon isn’t going to hit 32 homers with 128 RBI this season, but that hot finish should have spurred some interest in Young, but alas, it really hasn’t.

One of the biggest issues with Young has always been expectations. I say that because Young has never become the superstar that people expected he would be when he was taken first overall in the 2003 draft. Go back and look at prospect reports and you will see that Young was ranked as the number one prospect in baseball for multiple seasons. He’s only had one effort in five full seasons that is worthy of that designation though, an as a result I would bet you that people are burying Young as a “failure” instead of realizing that he is a pretty solid performer – once expectations are thrown out the window.

What Young isn’t is a power hitter. He never will be. It’s possible he might hit 25 homers one day, but 30 homers is likely a pipe dream, hardly a surprise given that he has averaged 14 homers a season the last five years. The reason for the lack of long ball power is that Young has never learned how to lift the ball. The major league average fly ball rate is about 37 percent. For his career Young’s fly ball rate is 33.6 percent. If he isn’t hitting a lot of fly balls then he’s going to need a big HR/F ratio to give him homers (like Ryan Howard). Unfortunately, Young is the owner of a 9.2 percent HR/F rate, right on the major league average. He’s never going to be a big time power bat.

Young also will never lead his team in thefts. He does have two seasons with double-digit thefts with a career-high of 14 back in 2008, but over the last three seasons he’s stolen a total of eight bases while being caught nine times. That’s just pathetic.

However, Young is a strong hitter in terms of his ability to produce hits. Young owns a career batting average of .288 and prior to last season he had never hit below .284 in a season. Why the slump last year then? Though he had an 18.3 percent line drive rate in 2011, one tenth above his career rate of 18.2 percent, his BABIP was a career worst .320 (some .026 points below his career average). A few more of those batted balls should fall for hits in 2012, and with those hits, his batting average will return.

As stated, Young has his limits. He’s never going to be a power hitter, and 2010 might go down as the best RBI campaign of his career. He’s also never learned how to take a pitch, his career BB/K mark is hideous at 0.24, so he will likely have plenty of dry spells throughout the year (being such a free swinger might limit him to being a .285 hitter versus a guy who could hit .315 if he just showed some patience). Regardless of the holes in his game, Young would appear to be a fantastic bargain at his current ADP level. If he’s your 5th outfielder in a mixed league your team will likely be in pretty good shape for the coming season.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Brennan Boesch

The Tigers added Prince Fielder this offseason to team with Miguel Cabrera as the most dynamic lefty-righty duo in baseball. With those two aces in the third and fourth holes in the lineup, whomever hits at the top of the order should not only see a major increase in their runs scored total, they should also see plenty of pitches to hit given that pitchers will not want to face Cabrera or Fielder with the bases full of runners. The leadoff man figures to be Austin Jackson, who I profiled in Fowler vs. Jackson, while the #2 man in the order very well could be Brennan Boesch who is the subject of today’s piece.

Boesch hit .256 with 14 homers and 67 RBI as a rookie, and in year two the third round draft choice followed up those numbers with a .286 average, 16 homers and 54 RBI in 26 fewer at-bats. Clearly those aren’t numbers anyone is going to get too excited about (that may be part of the reason that over at Fleaflicker Boesch really hasn’t been added in that many leagues). Still, his spot in the batting order, if he does indeed hold on to the two hole, has some folks pretty darn excited about Boesch. Is that excitement warranted? Let’s take a look.

The most obvious issue with Boesch through two seasons is the Houdini act he’s pulled off in the second half of both seasons. I’m not talking about him pulling a rabbit out of his hat either. I’m talking about making himself vanish into thin air. Check out his two year pre/post All-Star break totals. It’s enough to make even someone with a strong constitution vomit.

2010 1st half: .342/.397/.593 with 12 homers and 49 RBI
2010 2nd half: .163/.237/.222 with two homers and 18 RBI

2011 1st half: .306/.360/.490 with 12 homers and 44 RBI
2011 2nd half: .219/.288/.368 with four homers and 10 RBI

Maybe we’ll look back on those numbers 10 years from now and get a good laugh, but for now those numbers scare the bejezus out of me. Here are the combined numbers.

1st half: .321-24-93-91-56 with a .911 OPS
2ns half: .182-6-28-33-6 with a .526 OPS

In the first half he’s Matt Holliday but in the second half he is Ramon Santiago. You have to be concerned with those two sets of numbers, at least until he goes out and does something in the second half of the season. Again, it might be a sample size issue – he could hit .300 with 15 homers in the second half this season – but for now the numbers are scarier than a Wes Craven flick.

Boesch is a player that struggles against right-handed pitching. Oh he’s not awful with a .254/.315/.425 slash line, but oddly, he is stronger against left-handed pitching (since he’s a left-handed batter) with a .319/.380/.471 slash line. Think of it like this. Versus righties he is Johnny Damon while he’s Dustin Pedroia versus lefties. Given that most hurlers are obviously right-handed, that’s another level of concern.

Some other facts.

Boesch doesn’t strike out very often, but since he also doesn’t walk a lot his career 0.41 BB/K ratio is just a teenie bit below the league average. Moreover, his OBP of .330 in his two seasons is only four points better than the league average during that time. It should also be noted that though he is looked at as a potential power bat in some circles that his .436 slugging percentage is only .010 points better than the league average for outfielders. In addition, Boesch doesn’t hit too many balls in the air, his GB/FB ratio of 1.12 is smack dab on the league average, while his 10.7 percent HR/F rate is only about a percentage point high. Boesch also has shown little stolen base speed with 12 steals in two seasons, an if he does indeed hit second in the Tigers’ order you can’t think he is going to be getting the green light very often with the two thumpers coming up. As for his ability to help in the batting average category he did show a .027 point improvement in year two, but through 892 at-bats he has hit just .269. Moreover, his .306 BABIP mark is just about league average, and so far he hasn’t been anywhere near the league average in the line drive category with a career mark of just 16.6 percent (the league average is 19-20 percent).

To summarize, Boesch has roughly league average ability in his BB/K rate, GB/FB ratio and HR/F ratio. He’s also produced, roughly, a league average batting mark, OBP and SLG. He also doesn’t steal many bases or hit that many line drives. In short, through two seasons, Boesch hasn’t shown himself to be anything other than a guy that’s going to need 550 at-bats to be a mixed league option because nothing he does stands out. If he can spend the entire year hitting second in the Tigers order that could all change. It could also change if he doesn’t turn into an absolute weakling in the second half of the season. However, pay close attention to the fact that, up until now, Boesch hasn’t shown himself to possesses on outstanding skill. Be careful of expecting too much from the third year player.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Fowler vs. Jackson

I asked a simple question Wednesday on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter Page – for 2012, would you rather have Austin Jackson or Dexter Fowler. To my surprise the answer was Jackson with about 70 percent of the vote. Am I in the wrong in thinking that Fowler will be the better fantasy performer in 2012 (you can find my rankings of both outfielders in the BBGuys 2012 Draft Guide)? Here are my thoughts on this battle royale.

2011 fantasy stats:

Fowler: .266-5-45-84-12 in 481 at-bats

Jackson: .249-10-45-90-22 in 591 at-bats

If we allow Fowler another 110 at-bats to match Jackson’s total, an assume he would continue to perform at the same rate he flashed over 481 at-bats, his line would end up being .266-6-55-103-15. All of a sudden that gap between the two shrinks, it not disappears, does it not? Moreover, by “non-fantasy measures,” Fowler was easily the better performer last season.

Fowler had a .363 OBP, .432 SLG and .796 OPS
Jackson had a .317 OBP, .374 SLG and .690 OPS

So can you see why I was so shocked that Jackson, resoundingly, was the choice amongst my Twitter followers. Fowler bettered Jackson last year in the following categories: doubles, triples, walks, AVG/OBP/SLG. Fowler also tied Jackson in RBI and scored just six fewer runs in 28 fewer games played. So tell me folks, what is the big draw with Jackson? I bet it has more to do with his team than it does with Jackson.

The Tigers will boast the top power hitting duo in baseball in Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. I don’t think anyone is going to dispute that fact. If those two guys do their normal thing in the #3 and #4 slots in the lineup, whoever on the Tigers is asked to fill the leadoff role and hit in the second hole are bound to score a ton of runs. That’s sound reasoning. It’s also a pretty strong bet that Jackson will hit atop the Tigers’ order, not because he should hit there mind you, but because they don’t really have a better option (their entire starting lineup may not steal more bases than Michael Bourn). Keep this in mind. Jackson is a strikeout machine. You can live with that when a guy is hitting 30 homers, but when he’s batting at the top of the order and has 14 homers in his career that guy shouldn’t be striking out in more than a quarter of all of his at-bats. Due mostly to that K-rate, Jackson will have a very difficult time reaching the .293 batting average he posted in 2010 (that mark was almost entirely the result of his major league leading, an unsustainable, .396 BABIP. Predictably that mark regressed to .340 last season and with it his batting average receded). Not only does the fact that he may struggle to hit .271, his career average, weigh Jackson down, you should also pay attention to what it does to his ability to get on base. Through two seasons Jackson has n OBP of .331 a mere five points above the big league average of .326. Simply put, Jackson doesn’t have the skills to hit at the top of anyone’s batting order.

On the other hand, Fowler does possess the skills to bat leadoff. Not only does he have a substantially better OBP (career .355), Fowler also has ample speed (even though he swiped only 25 bags the last two years he stole 27 bases in 2009). Fowler also showed marked improvement in the second half last season after his demotion to the minors as he hit .288 with a .880 OPS over his last 68 games. Jackson will never post an .880 OPS. Fowler also got on base at a .381 clip in the second half leading to 51 runs scored over 68 games. Add in that he’s in the best shape of his life after training this offseason with Jason Giambi and Troy Tulowitzki, an I’m certainly taking Dexter Fowler over Austin Jackson on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Matt Joyce

Remember back to June 1st 2011 when Matt Joyce was hitting .370 with nine homers, 30 RBI and 34 runs scored through 51 games? Come on, you remember. You sent me notes about him, called me on my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio show, and basically all said he was going to be the breakout star of the 2011 season. You remember what I said all along? Come on, you do. I said that what Joyce was doing was unsustainable, I said it and wrote it over an over again. I don’t think many listened, but you should have. Joyce hit one homer in June and batted .179 over the months of June and July. In the end, Joyce had a nice season hitting .277 with 19 homers and 75 RBI, but I bet you that every single Joyce owner last year was frustrated to all hell with him, an I also bet that many of those of you who owned Joyce would say he was a disappointment because he started out so darn hot last year. To that last group, those of you who were upset with his performance, why didn’t you listen to me? I don’t randomly spout off when I talk about players, I nearly always have valid reasons for the positions I hold. I’m not always right, I’ll freely admit that, but more often than not I end up being right because I let the numbers, and my baseball knowledge, inform my positions. What am I talking about? Joyce is a perfect example of what I mean.

Over the first 490 at-bats of Joyce’s career he hit 25 homers, knocked in 80 runs and batted .243 with a .344 OBP. How did he end up in 2011? He hit 19 homers, drove in 75 runs, batted .277 and had a .347 OBP in 462 at-bats. Those two set of numbers are pretty much in alignment with each other, right? So how could you be disappointed by what Joyce did in 2011? Perception is the answer.

Every year someone breaks out and is killing it, hitting like .350 deep into May or June, and nearly every time that happens a regression takes place with that player over the remainder of the season. That’s what happened with Joyce. If you owned him in the first half he was all-world. If you owned him in the second half he sucked ass. In the end, his numbers were pretty darn solid, he just didn’t get there in an even, linear manner. Again though, the perception is that he stunk, even though his yearly totals should have been what you expected all along.

What should you expect from Joyce in 2011? I’m gonna predict more of the same from last year, and that’s not a bad thing at all (especially since Joyce’s value might be lower than it should be on draft day because of the sour taste his second half fade left in many owner’s mouths). Joyce owns a passable 0.53 BB/K mark for his career, and the same can be said about his 19.3 percent line drive rate and his .295 career BABIP mark. Toss in his 13.3 HR/F rate, and you have the type of profile that could put up .275-25 seasons for a decade. Toss in some steals, Joyce surprised last season with 13 thefts, and you have an ideal option for a 5th outfielder in mixed leagues.

The bottom line is this. Don’t fall into the trap of expectations with any player. Be honest about what you see, what the numbers say, and what scouts tell you. Also, be patient when a player starts slowly, and don’t be afraid to move a player who is clearly performing over his head early in the year. As Joyce showed with his hot/cold streaks last year, in the end the production was about where you should have expected it to be in March, it was just a gut wrenching ride to get there.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: October6, 2011

Relief Pitcher Review

(1) Jose Valverde 49-for-49 in saves.

(2) Craig Kimbrel dominates before late season letdown.

(3) Kenley Jansen historically good when it comes to strikeouts.

(4) Look how many closers came out of nowhere in 20211: Jordan Walden, Sergio Santos, Kyle Farnsworth, Fernando Salas, Javy Guerra, Mark Melancon.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 13, 2011

(1) Carlos Pena finally hitting. Be wary though.

(2) Magglio Ordonez (ankle) to the DL. Brennan Boesch to take over. For more on Boesch see Buy or Sell – AL Version.

(3) Delmon Young and Logan Morrison come off the DL.

(4) Joe Nathan improving – up to serving as a setup man for Matt Capps.

(5) Grady Sizemore missing time with a knee issue for Indians.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Player Profile: Ryan Raburn

Photo By Gradeki

On an almost daily basis I get an email from someone asking me about Ryan Raburn. Usually they read something like ‘this guy will hit 30 homers this year for sure if he gets 500 at-bats.’ Well, let’s take a look and see if (a) he is lined up for 500 at-bats, (b) if he ‘will’ hit 30 homers and (c) what his fantasy value is for the 2011 season.

PLAYING TIME

Ryan Raburn will start in left field for the Tigers. The team will go with Austin Jackson in center, and Magglio Ordonez in right on most day, and it appears that more often than not Victor Martinez will serve as the DH. The Tigers made the decision to send Scott Sizemore down and give the starting spot at second base to Will Rhymes until Carlos Guillen is back at full strength and ready to play every day (if that will ever happen no one knows). What all of that means is that Raburn had better keep hitting or he could start to lose some playing time, especially with Casper Wells and Brennan Boesch around to take away some at-bats in the outfield if need be. Even with all of that, Raburn appears set to make 140 starts in 2011, so in terms of playing time you’d have to give him the thumbs up after he’s appeared in 113 games each of the past two years.

A HOMER BINGE?

In his career, Raburn has hit 39 homers in 981 at-bats, or one every 25 at-bats. If he is able to keep that pace in the coming season he would need 750 at-bats to reach 30 homers. Clearly that isn’t going to happen. However, he has upped the homer ante a bit the past two years leading to 31 homers in 632 at-bats. Still, it’s pretty difficult to envision a scenario in which he blows past 600 at-bats this year, so that’s going to make his run to 30 homers this season a bit difficult. He does have a slightly elevated carer fly ball rate of about 43 percent (the big league average is about 38 percent), and a slightly better than average HR/F mark of 12.5 percent. Again, neither of those numbers screams out 30 homers. I hate projecting actual numbers, but if you pressed me I would say 25 homers are doable for this fella with full time work.

2011 FANTASY VALUE

If Raburn hits 25 homers and plays everyday, he is going to be a mixed league asset, right? As an outfielder he would kind of blend in with the rest because (a) he won’t steal many bases (14 in his career) and (b) because he strikes out in a quarter of his at-bats his batting average could settle in right around his career mark of .274. However, if he qualifies as a second baseman in your league, than it’s bonanza time because a .270 hitting, 20 homer threat up the middle has a lot of value. Unfortunately, Jim Leyland must not play fantasy baseball as he allowed Raburn to play second base just 18 times last season, two short of the standard requirement of 20 games played for eligibility. Check your league rules on this as his fantasy value goes through the roof if he qualifies at second base (he could be a top-15 guy at second).

I’ve mentioned playing time in this piece, but I’ve only talked about the upside. You might have asked yourself ‘if Raburn is such a solid hitter, how is it that he has less than a thousand at-bats even though he has appeared in five big league seasons?’ One of the main reasons is that he is a vastly superior performer against left-handed pitching. It’s not that he is awful against righties (.278/.323/.430) but his slash line is certainly inferior to his work against lefties (.269/.346/.514). In fact, in 561 at-bats against righties in his career he has a mere 16 homers. That number can’t make you feel too good about his prospects of going deep 25+ times in 2011 can it? On top of that, the Tigers do have Brennan Boesch whom they’ll want to get some at-bats, and though he looked awful for long stretches last year he did murder left-handed pitching (.337/.403/.548). If Raburn struggles a bit, could he lose some of his starts against lefties to the power hitting youngster which could mean trouble since Raburn is also a better performer against southpaws?

Ryan Raburn is an end game grab in mixed leagues as an outfielder. If he happens to qualify at second base he becomes a mid round grab. Either way he figures to produce solid numbers, but I would hold off in expecting him to blow it up in 2011.

By Ray Flowers