Stocking Stuffers

damon-swing-detroit

My family loves the holidays, and Christmas Eve holds a special place in our hearts. It is the one day of the year that everyone comes together. At last count, that means 29 of us will be at my parents home on Friday to celebrate family, friendship and the holiday. I hope that all of you out there have a place that you will be this weekend, surrounded by friends and loved ones even if you don’t celebrate the holiday.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

Does Johnny Damon have anything left?
Word on the street is that the Yankees don’t hate the idea of bring Johnny Damon back to New York. While all fans of the Yankees should be worried about the sad state of their starting lineup, it doesn’t hurt for them to be looking into potentially cheap options to help to bolster their offense. However, would Damon accept a job that basically entailed being a 4th OF option, DH type? With Jorge Posada slated for the starting role at DH, and an outfield of Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher (I’m jealous he married the beautiful Joanna Garcia) and Brett Gardner, there just wouldn’t seem to be any shot at substantial at-bats for another bat with the Yanks. Damon is 429 hits from 3,000. If he were to take a part-time role he would have almost no shot of reaching that historic mark. The question is – does he deserve a full-time role and a shot at history?

Damon hit .271 last season .016 points below his lifetime mark. Was that dip a fluke? I won’t go as far as to say that, but it also isn’t time to panic. He had a 1.19 BB/K mark in ’10, just slightly below his 1.27 career mark. His 18.8 percent line drive rate was slightly below his 20.0 percent career mark, but not hide the women and children bad. Neither of those two numbers says he is finished. Damon also sported an 11.3 BB-rate which tied his career best rate that was, incidentally, posted in ’09. His K-rate of 16.7 percent was poor, the second worst mark of his career, but still a manageable number. In total, Damon really didn’t lose as much last season as it appeared on the surface, especially if you lay part of the blame in his dip in homers on a tough home ballpark in Detroit.

I’m not saying he is going to hit .280 with 15 homers, 90 runs and 20 steals like he used to, but I think he can still get on base, score some runs, and do enough at the dish and on the base paths to help out someone in a full-time role.

Should anyone want Joe Blanton?
When the Phillies added Cliff Lee they broke the bank to set up the most magnificent foursome in the game (you can read about the group in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Any team would die to have a fifth starter as talented as Joe Blanton, but apparently the Phillies will need to move him so as to have some money available to address in-season needs in 2011. Blanton is due $8.5 million in each of the next two seasons which is a lot of money for Blanton, or is it? With guys like Ted Lilly and Jorge De La Rosa signing deals that will see them make more than $10 million a year, is Blanton really that bad an option at $8.5 million? The two lefites certainly have better power stuff, and therefore more fantasy upside, but in terms of real world value, it’s a lot closer between the three for the following reason – Blanton racks up innings year after year.

De La Rosa has one season in his career with more than 135-innings pitched.

Lilly has two seasons of 200-IP. He has also gone for 175-innings in each of the last five seasons.

Blanton has gone for 175 innings in each of the past six years, and five times he has thrown at least 194.

Clearly it’s not cartwheel time merely because of the innings totals, but Blanton is the right-handed Barry Zito at half the price, and I can think of a boatload of pitchers that offer less at a more substantial hit to the pocket book. If the Phillies are willing to eat a bit of the money Blanton is due, look for plenty of teams to be interested.

Bruce Chen – any interest?
One of the better free agent pitchers still on the market – who would have thought that would have been an accurate statement 12 months ago – Chen went 12-7 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP for the Royals. So why did the Royals decide not to retain their biggest winner from 2010? First off, it’s cause they are the Royals. Nuff said. Secondly, they are actually making a smart decision, shockingly, in choosing not to overpay for a guy who really isn’t a very good pitcher. Chen posted a 6.29 K/9 mark in 2010, the second worst total of his 12 year career. He walked 3.66 batters per nine innings – above his 3.53 career mark. The resulting 1.72 K/BB mark is well into the “danger zone” unless that pitcher is a ground ball wonder. Chen isn’t as he has allowed a GB/FB ratio below 0.75 in each of the last four seasons. Chen also posted a below big league average 8.1 percent HR/F rate which just so happens to be a career best and roughly 60 percent of his career mark of 13.3 percent.

Give the Royals credit for not doing anything crazy – like ceding to Chen’s desire for a multi-year deal.

And with that I’m out for the next two days. I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday Season. Give a loved one a hug and a kiss and celebrate the wonder that is this magical time of year.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Offseason Moves

jeter-rivera-nyy

Mariano Rivera wants two years from the Yankees – and they will be more than happy to give him that on his next contract offer. Derek Jeter, on the other hand, wants at least four with some reports hinting that he would actually prefer five or six years. Seems like the Yankees aren’t buying as they are set to officially offer him a 3-year, $45 million deal. Given that Jeter’s defense at short is sliding, that he is 36 years old, and that he is coming off the worst full season of his career (.270-10-67-111-18), it’s more than a fair offer. At the same time Jeter is Mr. Yankee, and if he were to bolt the team the revolt from the fans would be a P.R. nightmare. Look for the two sides to eventually settle on a four year deal – Jeter isn’t going anywhere – even if he isn’t the player he was just a couple of seasons ago.

Magglio Ordonez is apparently fully recovered from ankle surgery and he is ready to start looking for a place to ply his wares in 2011. His agent is Scott Boras, so you can count out small market clubs since Boras has probably put together a presentation saying that Ordonez is a better right-handed hitter than Albert Pujols. I will say this for Ordonez, he rebounded in 2010 after a terrible 2009 effort that saw him hit only nine homers with 50 RBI in 131 games. Limited because of injury to 84 games in 2010, he socked 12 homers, had 59 RBI, scored 56 times and hit .303 for the Tigers. Also, let me give Mags some props. In 10 of the last 12 years he has hit .300, and in each of his last eight seasons of more than 500 at-bats he has knocked in at least 99 runs. He is no Albert Pujols, but he is still a darn effective big league hitter.

Less than a week away from Thanksgiving, an I’ve already started to salivate over the thought of mashed potatoes and yams with marshmallows. Time to do a few extra sit-ups to make sure I can gorge next week.

Jonathan Papelbon is arbitration eligible, and it appears that after making $9.35 million last year that he will be asked for something like $11.5 million for the coming campaign. Would the Red Sox simply non-tender Papelbon and allow the 9th inning to be taken over by Bard? After all, Bard made a mere $416,000 last year and still isn’t eligible for arbitration. It seems unlikely, honestly I can’t envision it happening, but it’s doesn’t appear to be crazy when you compare the 2010 performance of the two righty relievers to one another.

Papelbon:1.27 WHIP, 10.21 K/9, 2.71 K/BB, 0.94 HR/9, 0.87 GB/FB, 3.51 FIP
D. Bard: 1.00 WHIP, 9.16 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.72 HR/9, 1.23 GB/FB, 3.37 FIP

Pretty darn close isn’t it? It’s also a concern that Papelbon posted the worst BB/9 mark of his last five seasons (3.76), and also his worst K/BB (almost a batter and a half below his career mark of 4.02). Papelbon also allowed a five year worst in HR/9, WHIP and ERA (it was 3.90, more than a run an a half above his career 2.22 mark). That’s a lot of indicators going in the wrong direction to be giving a guy a raise to over $11 million.

Dan Uggla appears to be happy with the Braves, an as expected, he also seems interested in staying with the club for a while. Uggla said that he wants what is “fair” in a contract offer, but that he isn’t going to try and become the highest paid player of all-time or anything like that. “A lot of people know that this is the closest big league team to my home [in Tennessee], and it creates an incredible opportunity for my family and friends to be able to come down and watch on a more consistent basis,” Uggla said. For my thoughts on Uggla and the great move the Braves made to get him make sure you give Who is the AL Cy Young a read.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May26, 2010

(1) Jacoby Ellsbury might be headed back to the DL.

(2) Bobby Jenks continues to struggle in 9th. Is it time for Matt Thornton?

(3) Brian Roberts to report to work on Friday.

(4) Carlos Ruiz dealing with some shoulder pain.

(5) J.A. Happ still a ways away from return.

(6) Max Scherzer finding his groove in minors.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 4, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes visits doctor, but still healthy. Turns out it had nothing to do with his hamstring.

(2) Hank Blalock deciding between Rays and Marlins. Neither is offering full-time role.

(3) David Aardsma tweaks groin. Not a major issue, but brings up how useful Brandon League might end up being.

(4) Ike Davis Mets’ first basemen of future. Can Daniel Murphy hold him off in the present?

(5) Max Scherzer struggles for Tigers in first outing.

(6) Brandon Webb frustrated with speed of comeback from shoulder surgery. No setbacks reported but he feels like he has “stagnated” in the process.

Here are some links to a few of my most recent pieces at Fanball.com which are free to view.

Crawford vs. Ellsbury.

Average Bases Allowed – Starters.

Average Bases Allowed – Relievers.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 3, 2010

(1) Phil Hughes in battle with Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves for Yanks 5th starters spot.

(2) Jason Heyward greatest player of all-time. Just ask around

(3) Tim Hudson and Jeremy Bonderman throw two shutout innings apiece.

(4) Brad Lidge continues to show improvement with knee/elbow.

(6) Jair Jurrjens shoulder showing improvement.

(7) Lance Berkman’s knee not that bad. Should be fine.

(8) Aaron Harang named Reds’ Opening Day starter.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 1, 2010

(1) Alfonso Soriano to hit 6th for Cubs.

(2) Troy Glaus says his shoulder is doing well.

(3) Josh Hamilton still dealing with sore shoulder.

(4) Miguel Cabrera quits drinking, ready to mash on field.

(5) Jose Reyes plays/runs with positive results for Mets.

(6) Bobby Jenks – what does 2010 hold in store? You can hear my thoughts in the video and augment that with my Breaking Down: Jenks article.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.22, 2010

(1) Johnny Damon finally signs with Tigers: 1-year, $8 million.

(2) Jonny Gomes signs with Reds.

(3) Mets – Jose Reyes to hit third, Carlos Beltran to miss April?Former Met Carlos Delgado has second hip surgery.

(4) Khalil Greene out in Texas. Will the Mike Lowell trade to be revisited?

(5) Rich Harden hopes to make 180 innings with Rangers.

(6) Alfonso Soriano dealing with knee – he is concerned.

(7) Brian Roberts – is his back injury serious?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.16, 2010

(1) Chien-Ming Wang signs with Nationals: 1-year, $2 million ($3M in incentives).

(2) Chase Utley getting faster on the bases?

(3) Russell Branyan to Indians?

(4) Johnny Damon still talking with Tigers.

(5) Geovany Soto loses 40 lbs., stops junk food.

(6) Jose Reyes back at practice, looks good.

(7) Cody Ross wins arbitration case with Marlins, will make $4.45 million in 2010.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum and the Giants agreed to a last minute deal to avoid arbitration as the two sides agreed to a 2-year deal worth $23 million. What are the ramifications of the deal for the Giants, Lincecum and baseball as a whole?

Just to further what was said in the video, here are the numbers between the three hurlers under discussion for the past two seasons (2008-09).

Lincecum: 33-12, 2.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Hernandez: 28-16, 2.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Verlander: 30-26, 4.08 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Lincecum: 10.47 K/9, 3.46 K/BB, 452.1 IP
Hernandez: 8.03 K/9, 2.60 K/BB, 439.1 IP
Verlander: 8.82 K/9, 2.88 K/BB, 441 IP

Oh, and if you can’t stand the wait over the weekend to hear more of my thoughts you can go ahead and click on the link to The Fantasy Buffet where you’ll find the archive to all the shows that Kyle Elfrink of Royals With Cheese and I do every day, live, 8-9 AM PST.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.11, 2010

(1) Is Johnny Damon nearing a deal with the Tigers? White Sox and Braves still in the mix.

(2) Elijah Dukes signs 1-year deal with Nationals.

(3) Looks like Giants and Tim Lincecum will go to arbitration on Friday.

(4) Stephen Strasburg says his knee is healthy, ready to go for Nationals.

(5) Chad Qualls healthy, a sleeper closing option in 2010.

(6) Who will close for Astros – Brandon Lyon or Matt Lindstrom? You can read more about this battle at Breaking Down: Lyon/Lindstrom.


By Ray Flowers