Early Award Returns

I’ll certainly go into much greater depth on all of the major baseball awards between now and the time that the season is completed, but I just wanted to give a few thoughts on the races at this point as the season marches, inexorably, toward the conclusion of the regular season (go Giants).

AL MVP

Main Candidates: Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Paul Konerko
Hamilton will lead baseball in batting average (.361), and he is hopeful of a return to action from his rib issue on Friday. Still, the guy has appeared in only two games in September and just 130 on the season. Is that really an MVP worthy campaign? There has only been one MVP who appeared in fewer than 15 September games in a non-strike season, and that was Dick Groat of the Pirates in 1960. I know it would make a great story, but I can’t give a thumbs up to a guy who didn’t do a damn thing in the seasons most important month.

NL MVP

Main Candidates: Carlos Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto
CarGo and Tulo will likely cancel each other out. The anti-Hamilton, look at their numbers in September: Gonzalez (.412-5-26-24 with a 1.131 OPS), Tulowitzki (.299-15-40 with a 1.148 OPS). If that means the decision is left to Pujols and Votto you have to think the fact that Votto’s Reds are playoff bound will tip the scales in his favor in the eyes of most voters since Votto and Pujols have had nearly identical numbers this season: Votto (.325-37-111-104-16 with a 1.029 OPS), Pujols (.313-42-117-113-13 with a 1.015 OPS). Will Pujols’ history win out over Votto’s winning record?

AL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, David Price, CC Sabathia
The best pitcher in the AL has been Felix Hernandez, though he is a mere 13-12 because of brutal run support (the Mariners scored seven runs while he was in the game in his 12 loses). Hernandez leads the league in ERA (2.27), strikeouts (232), innings pitched (249.2), quality starts (30) and he is second in WHIP at 1.06 (Cliff Lee has a 1.02 mark). Still, no starting pitcher, in a non-strike season, has ever won the award with fewer than the 15 victories that Tim Lincecum posted last season.

NL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright
Hudson ha lost four of five decisions as his ERA has gone from 2.24 to 2.76. Jimenez was 15-1 at the All-Star break but only 4-7 since. Johnson leads the NL with a 2.30 ERA but he pitched only 183.2 innings and won just 11 games. That leaves Halladay and Wainwright to finish 1-2, with Halladay likely to win the award despite nearly identical totals: Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA, 219 Ks, 1.04 WHIP), Wainwright (20-11, 2.42 ERA, 213 Ks, 1.05 WHIP).

AL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Neftali Feliz, Austin Jackson
Feliz was left in the bullpen when the club realized it had a hole there (he was slated to spend at least some time in the rotation), and all Feliz has done is have the best closing season by a rookie in league history with a record 38 saves in just 41 chances. He’s also posted a 0.90 WHIP over 66.1 innings.
Jackson has played strong defense in center field while at the same time scoring a ton of runs (102). He’s also hit nearly .300 at .299, while adding 26 steals. Do you favor pitching or hitting?

NL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Starlin Castro, Ike Davis, Jamie Garcia, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Gaby Sanchez
One of the strongest rookie classes in recent memory. As much as people seem to want to hand the award to Heyward, there are a couple of salient points that Heyward apologists have to deal with. (1) Sanchez has one more homer with 19, while he has knocked in 12 more runs (83) then Heyward. Heck, Sanchez is only batting .003 points lower at .276. How many people think Sanchez should win the award? That’s exactly why Heyward’s candidacy isn’t as strong as some profess. (2) Buster Posey has only two fewer homers and seven less RBI than Heyward despite appearing in 35 fewer games. Posey also has a .020 point lead in OPS, and he is a catcher. I’m admittedly biased as a Giants fan, but I just don’t get all this Heyward talk.

By Ray Flowers

The Case of Tim Hudson

A competitor of the first degree, Tim Hudson has been greatly overlooked for the majority of his career. First he was somewhat hidden by the presence of Mark Mulder and Barry Zito in Oakland, and then he moved on to Atlanta where he toiled as a top shelf pitching option, though once again one who failed to generate as much attention as his production warranted. However, after a wonderful first half he was named to the 2010 NL All-Star team, a much deserved honor given his 2.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8-4 record through 17 starts. In the next couple of sections I’ll relate some of the historical success of Hudson before speaking directly to what I expect from him in the second half of the regular season.

A History Lesson

As a rookie Hudson went 11-2 with a 3.23 ERA for the A’s over 21 starts. He ended up fifth in the Rookie of the Year Voting.

In year two he won 20 games for the first and only time as he went 20-6 as he finished second in the AL Cy Young race despite the fact that he posted the second worst ERA of his career at 4.14.

In year III (2001), he made a career high 35 starts as he went 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA.

You get the picture. He’s been very good for a long time. In fact, here are some historical facts about Hudson that speak to just how good he has been.

* From 1999-2008 he won at least 11 games each season. Only he and Mike Mussina did that. Moreover, in each season of his career in which he has thrown 130-innings he has won at least 11 games.

* In his career he is 156-82, good for a .655 winning percentage. As a result, he is one of just 10 pitchers in big league history with a winning percentage over .650 and at least 150 victories in a career. Think about that. Only 10 men have ever done that.

* Hudson owns a 3.43 ERA in his career despite spending six of his 12 seasons in the AL. He owns a career 1.28 ERA+ meaning his ERA has been 28 percent better than league average (park and era adjusted). To place that number in context, that 128 mark is tied for 43rd all time with guys like Curt Schilling, Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver.

Yes, that means he has been historically good.

Breaking Down 2010

Hudson deserves to be on the All-Star team this season, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns. Let’s just plow through them.

1- His ERA hasn’t been below 3.00 since 2003.

2- His WHIP hasn’t been 1.15 or lower since 2003.

3- His .221 batting average against would be a career low (.250 lifetime mark).

4- Despite all the success his 4.57 K/9 mark is a batter and a half below his career rate (6.04). It would also be a career worst mark.

5- His 3.23 BB/9 is above his career rate (2.79) and would be his second worst mark since 2000.

6- His line drive rate is laughably low at 10.6 percent. His career rate is 18.0 and it has been at least 16.5 percent each of the past eight years.

7- His BABIP mark is .234 which would be a career low (.286 lifetime mark).

8- His left on base percentage is sky high at 84.0 percent. It’s 74.0 percent for his career.

9- His GB/FB ratio is 3.15, a mark that would set a new career best.

Could Hudson have a second half to match the first? Stranger things certainly have happened. At the same time there is so much out of whack here that it would be wise not to lay a big portion of your paycheck on Hudson continuing to dominate as the season wears on. He should be fine and concerns about his Tommy John surgery obviously have vanished, but that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be a good time to see if you can parlay his hot start into a big return on the trade market.

By Ray Flowers

Commonalities Wanted

There’s no theme whatsoever to my article today. I just threw everything into a hopper and wrote about the names that fell out. Oh don’t worry, it’s really insightful stuff, there just isn’t a common thread to tie everything together.

Coco Crisp has been activated by the A’s. He hit .590 with five RBI during his rehab work in the minors signaling that his body might finally be right, finally. Still, there are about seven outfielders with the A’s club, so it remains to be seen if he will have a spot in the daily lineup, especially since his skills are so similar to those of Rajai Davis.

Mark DeRosa’s season is over as he will need surgery to repair his injured wrist. In the first year of a $12 million two year contract, DeRosa gave the Giants all of one homer, 10 RBI and 93 at-bats. That’s almost as bad an investment as The Bachelor’s Jake Pavelka made in his lady friend, Vienna Girardi. Oh stop acting like you don’t watch the show – we all know you do.

Josh Hamilton is back, and it appears that he is better than ever before. Josh is hitting .337, has a 16 game hitting streak, and is sporting a .981 OPS. Back in his “breakout” 2008 effort he hit .304 with a .901 OPS. He’s frighteningly talented.

Trevor Hoffman has been awful for most of the year, everyone knows that. However, he has improved tremendously of late and appears on the cusp of reclaiming his 9th inning role. “We kind of talked about that several times today,” manager Ken Macha said. “We’ll see how some things go. That is two good outings in a row, so I’ll talk to him [Thursday] and see how he’s feeling about himself.” If you are a John Axford owner you’ll want to hold on, but make sure Hoffman isn’t on waivers if you play in a deep league.

Jamie Moyer is almost old enough to join AARP as he is 47 years old. Amazingly, he has stuck around long enough to pile up 265 victories. That total places him 10th all-time in victories by a lefty, an it’s also one behind the immortal Bob Feller and three behind Jim Palmer. Need some more info about just how amazing Moyer’s career has been? Since turning 30 he has won 231 games, the sixth most ever from that age to the end of a player’s career. To put that win total in perspective, Roy Oswalt has 142 victories, Tim Hudson 155 and Roy Halladay 156 — in their entire careers.

Buster Posey, everyone’s darling when he was called up, has hit the skids of late with a mere .186 average and a .524 OPS over his last 43 at-bats. His average is still shade over .300 at .303, but his .421 SLG is a pretty pathetic number for a first sacker (the NL average for the position is .458). I know it borders on heresy in some corners, but Posey really needs to pick it up or he could start to lose playing time (he isn’t in the lineup on Tuesday night as Pablo Sandoval is at first with Juan Uribe at third).

Mike Stanton, who I spoke of yesterday in my Around the Horn, June 21st video, deserves to be mentioned again. Here is, in written word, what I spoke of yesterday; you simply cannot have success in the big leagues if you strikeout more than 40 percent of the time. I know it’s a miniscule sample size we’re breaking down with the talented Fish, but 19 whiffs in 43 at-bats gives him a K-rate of 44.2 percent. Chris Davis, basically demoted to the minor because he whiffs too often, owns a K-rate of 34.7 percent in his career. Other noted purveyors of the strikeout follow with their career K-rates in parenthesis: Ryan Howard (32.3), Adam Dunn (32.4), Mark Reynolds (38.2) and Jack Cust (39.1). As you can tell from that list you can be mighty successful in the bigs even if you pile up copious amounts of strikeouts, but if Stanton wants to make his mark this season he’s gonna have to knock like 10 percentage points off his current rate.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 3, 2010

(1) Phil Hughes in battle with Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves for Yanks 5^th starters spot.

(2) Jason Heyward greatest player of all-time. Just ask around

(3) Tim Hudson and Jeremy Bonderman throw two shutout innings apiece.

(4) Brad Lidge continues to show improvement with knee/elbow.

(6) Jair Jurrjens shoulder showing improvement.

(7) Lance Berkman’s knee not that bad. Should be fine.

(8) Aaron Harang named Reds’ Opening Day starter.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Gods Draft

I’m asked to participate in a few “experts” leagues draft each year, and this year was no different. One of those leagues that I was asked to enter was a 12-team, mixed league auction that drafted the other night. Here are the participants in The Battle of the Fantasy Gods Draft.

Mike Kuchera – The Fantasy Man
Scott White – CBS Sports
Tim McLeod – RotoRob
Todd Farino – Fantasy Baseball Search
Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires
Chris McDonnell – Fantasy Baseball
Tony Cincotta – Fantasy Pros 911
Paul Greco – Fantasy Pros 911
Grey Albright – Razzball
Ryan Hallam – Fighting Chance Fantasy
Scott Swanay – Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Ray Flowers – FanBall

* Note. Each team had $260 dollars to spend to field a traditional lineup of 14 hitters (C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT) and nine pitchers. There was no reserve draft held, so each team was only comprised of the 23 men drafted, and therefore every player selected will obviously be in the active lineup.

I entered the draft playing on spending $180 on hitting and $80 on pitching. I also planned on being patient as people sometimes blow their wads early.

Here is how my team turned out.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach ($3), Yadier Molina ($3)
I probably overpaid for Shoppach who I grabbed early, but he brings enough power to be useful. Molina is better than you think, and a safe play in batting average.

First Base: Miguel Cabrera ($35)
One of two big ticket items. Cabrera is about as steady as they come. He and Albert Pujols are the only two men in the game to have hit .290-25-100 in each of the past six seasons.

Second Base: Brian Roberts ($20)
Love this guy, and he was the last of the top tier second basemen to go. Roberts is the only player in baseball history to have 3-straight efforts of 100-runs, 30-steals and 40-doubles

Third Base: Michael Young ($9)
I think this was one of the best bargains of the draft. Doesn’t have the traditional third base pop, but he owns a .302 career average, has scored 80 runs in six of seven seasons, and knocked in 80 runs 5-straight years before falling to 68 last year as injury struck.

Shortstop: Stephen Drew ($7)
Drew is one of just four shortstops to have 10 homers, 65 RBI and 70 runs the past two seasons.

Middle/Corner Infield: Howie Kendrick ($8), Lance Berkman ($18)
Kendrick will hit .300 in his sleep. If he finally makes it out there for 500 at-bats, he could swipe 15 bags while going deep 15 times. Berkman had a down season last year, mostly because of injury. If you give him another 100 plate appearances to reach his normal level, he would have been right at 30 HR and 100 RBI.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury ($29), Shane Victorino ($15), Alfonso Soriano ($10), Jason Kubel ($8), Johnny Damon ($5)
Ellsbury is a beast and has as good a chance as anyone to lead the league in steals. Victorino does everything well, and has been money the past three years. Soriano is a risk, no doubt, but with health 30 homers still seems doable. Kubel is a safe choice. He’ll likely regress a bit from last season’s numbers, but should still be solid. And I have no idea why no one loves Johnny Damon – not only in real life but also in the fantasy game.

Utility: Vlad Guerrero ($1)
Got my guy here. Drafted him really late when others were low on cash. With the Rangers I really think he could still hit .300 with 25 homers, totals he had reached 11-straight years before last season.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan ($16), Josh Beckett ($16), Brian Wilson ($12), James Shields ($10), Scott Baker ($9), Tim Hudson ($8), Chad Qualls ($8), Max Scherzer ($5), Matt Thornton ($3)
Beckett is an ace. In each of the past three seasons he has posted a K/9 rate of at least 8.43 while keeping his WHIP under 1.20. He is the only AL hurler who can make that claim. Shields, Baker and Hudson could all win 15 games with solid ratios, and I think they form a great base behind Beckett. As for Scherzer, he just might be the most dominating hurler of the bunch if he can ever learn to throw strikes. Nathan and Wilson should get me 75 saves. The Qualls selection caused some to snicker, but he could save 30 if healthy. After all, he led baseball with a 6.43 K/BB ratio last year. Thornton may not get saves, but he will provide ratio help, strikeout a ton of batters, and could move into the closers role if/when Bobby Jenks is traded.

Total: Hitting $171, Pitching $87 (I was left with $2).

I darn near hit my pre-draft goals in terms of spending, and put together a strong team. I was especially pleased with my pitching staff considering how long I waited to jump into that mix for starters. Still, are you wondering why I had $2 left over? Let me tell you a story.

I had targeted Vlad for my UT spot late, and I had that spot and one final OF spot open with $11 left. I tried to draft Corey Hart and Nate McLouth, but both times the bidding went to $10. I could have paid that amount, but then (a) I wouldn’t have been able to get Vlad (there is no way anyone could have known he would go for a dollar), and (b) I HATE having $1 players. It’s not like they can’t be productive players, in fact they are often the most productive given how cheaply they come on draft day, but the problem is you have no say in who it ends up being. Think about it. All someone needs is $2 and they can lock you out of the bidding on that player. I want to be able to dictate who is on my team, not be stuck with a player no one else thinks is worth a dollar bid.

In the end I feel good about the club. I will need Damon/Soriano/Guerrero to come through on offense, but given their illustrious track records, I feel pretty strongly that they will. The pitching staff is also a solid group who I would go to battle with in any mixed league.

So there it is. Wish me luck as I battle all year long with the “Gods” of fantasy baseball.

By Ray Flowers

In the News: Rumors

I finally bit the bullet and entered the Twitter world this week as BaseballGuys is now Twitter friendly. If you go to the page you can read all my brilliant one liners for the day. Here are two of my favorites from day one – one sports related, the other not so much.

“Who thought of calling dentists doctors? I can get my jaw jacked up by hitting on a gal at a bar who is there with her b/f for free.”
– I wrote that after having two fillings in my lower right jaw replaced (the old ones cracked). The good news is that I swapped out the silver for some gold. It’s not a platinum grill or anything, but way in the back there I got me some bling.

“Kung Fu Panda a workout fiend. Love the headband.”
– There is a link on the page so you can read the story about how Pablo Sandoval has dedicated himself to getting into a bit better physical shape. Here is a quote from the Panda. “The fans, I love them and want them to know I’ll always be the guy who’s working hard. I know I have to lose weight so I can play this game for a long time.”. It’s pretty crazy to think how good he could be considering (a) he was grossly out of shape last season, and (b) he really has no clue of what he is doing at the dish. After all, Pablo was second in the NL with a .330 batting average and seventh with his .943 OPS despite the issues.

THE RUMOR MILL

Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman reported that the Giants might be in the mix for Johnny Damon since the club doesn’t have enough dough to target high end offensive weapons such as Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. Seems to make sense to me. After all, Damon is 36 years old, just the perfect age for a Giants organization that just can’t seem to figure out how to construct an offense.

The Mariners reportedly have some interest in uber-talented yet continually injured Rich Harden. If healthy he could be a top-10 pitcher, but we all know there is no way that happens right? He sure would form a potentially lethal 1-2 punch with Felix Hernandez though.

The rumors are true with Tim Hudson – he did sign a 3-year deal to remain with the Braves. I broke down the deal and his 2010 outlook in Around the Horn. As an aside, you can read the same piece for my thoughts on what will happen to Milton Bradley.

The Royals are looking to move Mike Jacobs. Apparently, when you hit .228 with a .297 OBP teams sour on you pretty quickly. The Royals may also try and move Alberto Callaspo, potentially to the Dodgers for catcher A.J. Ellis. The Royals really don’t have a catcher with both John Buck and Miguel Olivo near certainties to move on (Olivo already had his option declined). In addition the Royals picked up Chris Getz to play second in the recent mark Teahen deal. All of this seems a bit odd though considering that Callaspo hit .300 with 73 RBI last season while not being eligible for arbitration until after next season.

Jason Schmidt will reportedly call it a career. His shoulder just never rebounded to the point where he was able to do anything on the hill. I’ll never forget his two year run in San Fran in 2003 (17-5, 2.34 ERA, 208 K, 0.95 WHIP) and 2004 (18-7, 3.20 ERA, 251 K, 1.08 WHIP). Until I saw Tim Lincecum pitch, I had never witnessed a Giants’ hurler who was as filthy or as potentially lethal as Schmidt.

By Ray Flowers

Eye of the Beholder

Monday was a bit of a slow day for news, but I still was able to ferret a couple stories that I found interesting, and if a guy as interesting as me though the stories had some merit, i.e. interest, well then you can take it to the bank – they are some darn interesting storylines.

Randy Johnson will head to the DL with a strained throwing shoulder. There still isn’t definitive news on how long he will be out, but the fear is that it will be much longer than 15 days (the hope right now is for him to return in about three weeks). What that means is that the Giants will likely have to turn back to Jonathan Sanchez, a potentially dangerous situation given his often profound struggles this season (5.94 BB/9, 1.48 K/BB, 1.69 WHIP). Still, the guy has no-hit stuff, if he could ever control it.

Tim Lincecum is quite possibly the most exciting mound presence since Pedro Martinez in his prime. The flowing hair, the stuff, the presence and the stare that says “I’m going to come right at you and there is nothing you can do about it” – the kid is the stuff of legend. Adding to the visceral feel of his presence are the dominating numbers he has produced in his short career. Through 75 starts Lincecum is 34-12, good enough for a .739 winning percentage. As a result, he is just the tenth pitcher in baseball history , since 1900 anyway, to produce a winning percentage that high through his first 75 starts. As flat out dominating as he has been, would it surprise to learn that Tim Hudson was even better through his first 75 starts with an amazing 43-13 record, good enough for a .768 winning percentage?

Rick Porcello will have his nest start skipped meaning he won’t appear again until after the All-Star break. Nothing is wrong, the team is just playing it safe with their future star so that they can avoid burning him out as he has already tossed 87 effective innings (8-6, 4.14 ERA). “We always said all along we were going to pick our spots to protect him,” manager Jim Leyland said. “It has nothing to do with yesterday’s performance, I can tell you that. … To be honest with you, I’m sure he doesn’t like it, but it’s what we’re going to do to protect him.” Smart moves like this mean that the Tigers really have Porcello’s long-term interests in mind (of course they are being selfish too because they obviously don’t want to burn out their future All-Star).

So much for the Chris Ray is going to close for the Orioles when they eventually trade George Sherrill line of thought. Ray, who has been miserable this season with a 9.28 ERA and a 2.30 WHIP, has been placed on the DL with right biceps tendonitis. At this point we have no idea how long he will be out (the club is hopeful it won’t take more than three weeks), but with his ineffectiveness and now injury, the team would be crazy to count on Ray in the second half. Jim Johnson owners in AL only leagues rejoice – you might pick up a few saves after all.

Mark Teixeira is hitting just .243 with a .800 OPS on the road. He is also hitting just .257 without a single long ball in 18 games. Amazing how a guy who is this consistent year-to-year can be so streaky within a season.

There was a report from ESPN that the Braves and Brewers were discussing a potential deal for Javier Vazquez. Really? When I heard that I thought to myself that on the surface that seemed like one stupid rumor. Good to know that my “spider-sense” was dead on as the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel came out later in the day saying that the rumored deal was pure bolder dash. Sometimes I think that these guys just make up stories on slow news day. Still, it wasn’t a totally useless fishing expedition as the rumor did help to draw to the surface the recent comments of Ryan Braun. “Regardless of the reasons, we’ve got to find a way to throw the ball a little bit better for us to have success. When you’re constantly behind in games, it’s not easy and not fun.” How accurate was Braun’s analysis? The Brewers are currently 13th in the NL in ERA (4.47), tied for seventh in WHIP (1.39) and 11th in K/BB (1.96). They certainly could use an arm or two in that starting rotation.

By Ray Flowers