Ride The Wave

Fantasy baseball is all about riding the wave. Sometimes we paddle out and just wait, and wait, and wait. Other times we start paddling and we time the wave wrong and it just rolls by. But when everything breaks right, when the wave meets the right timing, the result is one heck of a ride. Here are some folks who have hit the wave or missed it through the first quarter of the 2013 baseball season.

Gordon Beckham (hand) will start his rehab this weekend, he hopes, and he should be back by the end of the month. Does anyone care?

Tony Cingrani has a sore shoulder so his next start will be pushed back and potentially skipped. With Johnny Cueto nearing a return, could Cingrani be DL’d or sent to the minors? Certainly possible. Oh, and this is one of the main reasons why I suggested going Tim Lincecum over Cingrani a month ago. We know that Lincecum can make 30 starts, something he has done the last five years. Cingrani? He’s never made 30 starts and we have no idea if he can handle that workload (he’s made 36 starts since the beginning of 2011). You can love those rookies, but as I keep saying, more often than not, they fail to live up to expectations.

Josh Donaldson have a strong start to the season. Donaldson had four more hits Tuesday night and is now hitting .314 on the year. He’s doubled his walk rate from last season, up from 4.8 percent to 10.7 percent, and if he can hold on to those gains that would be huge. He’s also seen his K-rate go down five percent, and when you combine patience with discipline, success follows.

To see how others are evaluating Donaldson and others, don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Bryce Harper is dealing with some nausea, but the Nationals continue to insist that Harper did not suffer a concussion when he ran into the wall the other day and these bouts of feeling ill are not concussion related symptoms. I’ve been nauseous this season watching Barry Zito pitching on the road this year with an 11.25 ERA and 2.58 WHIP over three starts. He’s got a 0.55 ERA at home with a 1.03 WHIP in five home starts.

Paul Konerko returns to the lineup after sitting out the last two games to clear his head Wednesday. Through 33 games this season Konerko has been lost with a .214 average and .623 OPS. Konerko has hit at least 22 homers every year since 2004, and he’s had at least 75 RBIs in eight of the last nine seasons. He’s 37, but he should still be able to rebound from this rough start to be productive, even if he’s unable to reach his previous levels of expectation. A .235 BABIP, that mark has been over .300 the past three years, and a 25.5 percent line drive rate which would be a career best, hint at the potential comeback here. It’s also fair to guess that his 8.0 percent HR/F ratio will improve. He’s never had a mark below 12.2 percent in a career that began in 2002.

James Loney check in. He’s leading baseball with a .381 batting average. He’s hitting .391 in May and has shown no signs of slowing down… though of course he will soon. He’s hitting .446 on the road (25-for-56) and .478 against lefties (11-for-23). In his career he has hit .255 against left-handed pitching though he has hit .299 on the road.

Russell Martin had two more hits Tuesday as he returned from a neck issue. In his last nine games Martin has four games with at least two hits. He’s also gone deep four times with eight RBIs in that time as his average has gone from .227 to .273. All of a sudden this guy looks like a hitter again.

Mitch Moreland is hot, hot, hot. He has hits in nine of last 10 games. In five of those games he had two hits. He also ripped three homers in his last two games and has gone deep six times in his last nine games. He’s pumped up his fly ball rate to 45 percent this season, five percent higher than normal, and he’s also sporting an 18.4 percent HR/F ratio, four percent above normal. If he holds on to those gains we could be looking at a 20-25 homer bat this season (he hit 16 and 15 big flies the last two years).

Nikita, starring Maqqie Q, is a pretty good series. Hot babes shooting guys, strong action scenes too. It was re-upped for a fourth season, but in a limited run, so you had better start watching before it moves to DVD.

Carlos Zambrano finally got a big league job when he signed a minor league deal with the Phillies (he had previously agreed to a deal with the independent Long Island Ducks). Can you believe that Big Z is 31 years old? At least he can take the ball whenever a team wants him to. Perhaps a workhorse in the bullpen?

Draft Day Challenge, May 7

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Russell Martin
2. Wilson Ramos

Martin has gone 6-for-13 with a couple of RBIs against Aaron Harang. Martin’s also hitting .308 the past week, and Harang is sporting an 8.68 ERA this season with the Mariners.

Ramos has five hits an a homer in 13 at-bats against Anibal Sanchez. He’s only got four hits in 16 at-bats since he returned to action, so he’s not exactly locked in.

FIRST BASE
1. Billy Butler
2. Garrett Jones

Butler has five hits in six at-bats against Wei-Yin Chen. Two of those hits are homers. He’s also driven in four runs. The last week he’s also started to hit a bit with a .286 average.

Jones has had no success against lefties, he basically sits against all of them, but he’s done a fine job versus righties. He faces Aaron Harang whom he has six hits in 10 at-bats against, including a big fly.

SECOND BASE
1. Jedd Gyorko
2. Ryan Raburn

Gyorko is finally hitting after a bit of a slow start. Over the past week he’s hit .370 with three homers, six RBIs and five runs scored. He faces the far from imposing Alex Sanabia Tuesday.

The AL’s reigning Player of the Week, Raburn has hit .476 with two homers and six RBIs in his last 22 at-bats. He faces lefty Tommy Milone Tuesday night.

THIRD BASE
1. Chase Headley
2. Luis Valbuena

Headley is up to .299 thanks to an 11-game hitting streak, and he’s driven in six runs in his last seven games. He’s also batting .326 versus righties this season, a good thing since he faces Alex Sanabia who just so happens to be a righty.

Valbuena is your cheap play of the day. He’s batting .286 against righties this season, and he’s hitting .342 at home. He plays in Chicago Tuesday while taking on righty Lance Lynn.

SHORTSTOP
1. Andrelton Simmons
2. Starlin Castro

Simmons takes on the Reds’ Bailey, and he’s streaking right now. Simmons is hitting .360 the past week, but even more impressive is the total of three big flies, seven RBIs and six runs scored. He’s rolling.

.300′s abound. Castro is hitting .300 the last seven days. He’s hitting .329 at home. He’s batting .385 vs. Lance Lynn (5-for-13). He’s pushed his average up to .277 on the season.

OUTFIELD
1. Nick Markakis
2. Matt Holliday

Markakis has enjoyed success against the hot Ervin Santana with a .294 average and 1.000 OPS in 34 at-bats. Markakis has also gone deep three times while driving in 10 runs against the righty.

Holliday is 6-for-18, a .333 average, with two bombs and four RBIs against Travis Wood. Holliday has always killed it against the Cubs with a .305 average and .877 OPS in 73 career games.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Matt Harvey
2. Anibal Sanchez
3. Tim Lincecum
4. C.J. Wilson

Harvey is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Nothing bad to say about the young righty who is taking on the White Sox.

Sanchez is 8-0 with a 1.97 ERA against the Nationals In his career. The current Nationals club has also hit .195 with a .541 OPS against Sanchez in 195 at-bats.

Lincecum is 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, not to mention 77 Ks in 75 innings, in 11 starts against the Phillies. He’s also allowed just one homer, and seven runs, over his last three starts.

Wilson is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA and two saves against the Astros. He also beat the club from Houston earlier this season with one run allowed over six innings on April 14th.

By Ray Flowers

Finally Home

I’ve spent the last three days in the hospital with the whopper of all illnesses. Try throwing up 20+ times (literally), having cramps to bad that you can’t straighten out your fingers for nearly two hours, yeah, it was great times, and taken your first ambluance ride ever. On the slow road to recovery now though. Thanks for all the well wishes to all of you, I really appreciate it.

Some observations from my hospital bed.

Why couldn’t the Dodgers activate Hanley Ramirez 12 hours earlier? It was too late for me, and I assume you, to activate him for your weekly lineups.

Matt Cain looked like Tim Lincecum against the D’backs. In control for all but one inning of his outing. Cain’s HR/9 mark has to turn around. When it does, his performance will revert to normal expectations. Buy low if his current owner is burned out and ready to move on.

I don’t care what they say, I look really good in a hospital gown. Really good.

Nolan Arenado was called up by the Rockies and hit a home run in his second game. The hype train is rolling down the tracks and gaining steam by the minute. Be careful. Arenado was hitting over .360 at Triple-A this season, but he hit only .285 in Double-A in 2012. Could he hit .300 in the pro’s this season? Doubtful. His average should be solid, but I worry about the power. Sure he plays in Colorado, but you have to be able to lift the ball. Since the start of the 2011 season Arenado’s fly ball rate is 33 percent, which is less than the big league averagem (around 35-36 percent). It’s very difficult to be a big home run hitter with a mark that low. Two points. (1) Over the last two years, Arenado has played 134 games each season an averaged 16 homers a campaign. Sixteen. (2) Do you know how man guys hit 25 homers last year with a fly ball rate of 33 or less percent? Billy Butler, Buster Posey, Carlos Gonzalez, Dayan Viciedo, Chase Headley and Adam Jones. That’s it if I didn’t miss someone in my illness induced state. Also remember, those fellas had six full months of action. The most Arenado can have is five. Might sound crazy to some, but think Joe Randa for 2013.

I need a shower. After three days, I think it’s about time.

To see how others are evaluating players like Arenado don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

By Ray Flowers

2013 SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio – Experts Draft

I just keep doing fantasy baseball drafts don’t I? Seems like every time I wake up I get my bowl of cereal, my Red Bull (sometimes there is vodka in it), answer a plethora of tweets and emails, and then I end up being in a draft of some kind. Which draft am I talking about in this article? It’s the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio draft, populated by the genius minds of the network. How did my team turn out? Before I get to that, here are the rules.

12 team mixed league
5×5 scoring
14 hitters, nine pitchers
six reserve rounds (also one DL spot)

Here’s the club.

C: Mike Napoli (9th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (18)
1B: Adam Dunn (15)
2B: Martin Prado (6)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI: Andrelton Simmons (21)
CI: Kevin Youkilis (17), Lance Berkman (26)
OF: B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (4), Austin Jackson (5), Melky Cabrera (14), Juan Pierre (16), Dayan Viciedo (22), Rajai Davis (27)
UT: Brandon Belt (20)

STARTING PITCHERS: James Shields (7), Yovani Gallardo (8), Zack Greinke (10), Tim Lincecum (11), James McDonald (23), Wandy Rodriguez (24), Edinson Volquez (25), Francisco Liriano (29 – DL)

RELIEF PITCHERS: J.J. Putz (12), John Axford (13), Chris Perez (19), David Hernandez (28)

It’s important to note a couple of salient points before I dig into my team.

This league has one DL spot. That was part of the reason I wasn’t worried about taking Liriano with my last pick. I’ll stick him on waivers and add another arm in week one.

This league was done on a service that has very lenient rules for positional qualification. Take the case of Prado. He should only qualify at outfield (119 games) and 3B (25), but in this league he also qualifies at shortstop (13) and second (10). I say it all the time, but it’s vital to know the rules of your league, and in this league the following players qualify at more than one spot:

Ramirez: 3B, SS
Prado: 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Napoli: C, 1B
Dunn: 1B, OF
Youkilis: 1B, 3B

No on to the offense.

Napoli and Saltalamacchia might hit a combined .240, but both should go go deep at least 20 times with Napoli having 30 HR upside if he can get 500 at-bats at first base for the Red Sox.

I had the #3 pick and was worried that Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera would go 1-2 leaving me to pass on Mike Trout at #3. Luckily Trout went #2 overall so I could draft Cabrera. Dunn is a batting average disaster, but he’s nails in HR, RBI, runs scored. He’s hit at least 38 homers with 92 RBIs and 79 runs scored in eight of nine years. Youkilis should see a nice bounce back at third base in Yankee Stadium, and Berkman was also a late round add who is just one season removed from hitting .300 with 30 homers. Belt has 15/15 talent, and this might be the year he finally lives up to his billing.

Everyone keeps hating on HanRam. Give me that 20/20 talent that qualifies at two spots. I’m a big believer this year. Simmons is likely to bat leadoff for the Braves this season in what could be a potent lineup. I don’t love Simmons this year, but I’ll take that talent in the 21st round. Prado is my starter at second. I’ll take that .300 average and potential 15/15 upside without hesitation.

My outfield is solid. Upton could go 20/40. Choo could go 20/20. Jackson could go 15/25. I’ll take that as a top-3. My fourth is Melky Cabrera. I’m not quite sure how he performs coming back from his PED suspension, but after proving himself to be a .300 hitter the past two years, I took a shot (more on the reason for that below). My 5th outfielder is Juan Pierre. Forty steals and 80 runs, not to mention a .280 average, seem doable. Viciedo never walks, but that’s a 25 homer bat, and I have no idea why Davis was still there in the 27th round. I’ll trade him to someone who needs some speed.

On the hill…

I went earlier for pitching in this draft that I normally do. Why? Because it was where the value was. I didn’t jump into the mix early, the 7th round was my first arm, but look at my top-4: Shields, Gallardo, Greinke and Lincecum. Do you honestly think that each of those four men can’t strike out 200 batters while winning 15 games? People are worried about Greinke’s arm. He was worth taking a shot on in the 10th round (his current ADP is inside the top-60). I picked him up at selection #118. Lincecum? I’ve long been on record expecting a bounce back (see – Is Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance?). Behind that foursome I have another big arm in McDonald, and Wandy Rodriguez is a solid 6th starter. I also added another potential big K arm in Volquez in the reserve rounds. In the pen I also did something I rarely do – I ended up with three closers. I took Putz/Axford because of the value I felt they held, and then much like with Greinke, I just couldn’t pass up Perez in the 19th when others were seemingly afraid to take him cause he might miss the start of the season. I thought Perez was a great value in the 19th round, side issue be damned. Don’t forget that Perez had 36 and 39 saves the last two years. I also tabbed Hernandez as a middle reliever, one who would likely take over if Putz were injured.

Some final thoughts.

I have batting average drains in Dunn, Napoli, Saltalamacchia and Upton. I offset that with the likes of Prado, Miguel Cabrera, Choo, Jackson and Melky Cabrera. I added two all speed guys in Pierre/Davis to help me strongly in steals (not to mention the potential 20 thefts guys like Ramirez, Simmons, Upton, Choo and Jackson). I’ve got youth – Belt, Simmons – and age – Youkilis and Dunn. I really like the balance of this offense.

On the mound, I like it. My top-4, if healthy, will be better than any other top-4 in this league. If my three relievers stay healthy, that’s 100 saves. For not taking a starter early, and not taking a reliever until the 12th round, don’t you think my staff turned out pretty well? Me too.

For the full RESULTS OF THE DRAFT click on the link.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Johan Santana

On June 30th of 2012, Mets’ starting pitcher Johan Santana had a 2.76 ERA. That means halfway through the year his ERA was under three. By the time his season ended in mid August his ERA was 4.85. What happened over the course of his last five starts was legendary (he was shutdown for good after his August 17th outing). Santana allowed at least six earned runs in each of his last five starts as he went 0-5 with a 15.63 ERA. Moreover, after throwing a career-high 134 pitches in his no-hitter on June 1st Santana dropped seven of 10 decisions with a 8.27 ERA and 1.76 WHIP while averaging less than five innings a start. Where does that leave Santana’s value heading into the 2013 season?

Johan Santana hurt his shoulder, and as we have seen repeatedly, shoulder injuries are much dicier than elbow issues. Santana’s shoulder issue precluded him from throwing a single pitch during the 2011 big league season so it shouldn’t have surprised many that he was only able to reach 117 innings last season. Did you listen when I warned against drafted Santana last February in One of Those Days where, to quote myself, I wrote the following: “Newsflash everyone. Santana will never again be the pitcher he once was.” Let me be a bit more clear. Here are Johan’s innings pitched marks the past four years: 166.2, 199, zero and 117. Three of the past four years he hasn’t reached 170 innings, and the last time he tossed 200 innings was 2008. At 33, with a wonky shoulder, what are the odds he tosses 200 innings in 2013? I know the Mets are saying that they believe he will be able to carry a full workload this year, but that’s just crazy talk if you ask me.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

So what happened last year? The Mets allowed Santana to get the first no hitter in franchise history, but they paid a dear price. Santana, as I noted above, was never the same pitcher thereafter. You can say ‘coincidence’ and maybe you are right, but the data certainly is pretty overwhelming that throwing those 134 pitches just wiped him out. Taking a look at the rest of his 2012 season, the Mets really blew it. Johan made 21 starts last season. Only seven times, one third of his outings, did he throw even 100 pitches. The Mets were very careful not to allow him to throw too many pitches, and when they limited his pitch count he was very effective. However, that one slip up throwing those 134 pitches certainly appears to have been his downfall. Does that mean the Mets will use him as a 5-6 inning guy this season? Obviously that could cut into his win potential if they chose to deploy him that way.

Some other facts to consider with Santana.

His ERA in 2012 was an 11 year high.

His WHIP was a 10 year high.

His 3.00 BB/9 mark was a nine year high.

His 2.85 K/BB ratio was his second worst mark of the past nine years.

His 1.31 HR/9 mark was the second worst mark of his career.

For the third straight year he failed to post a GB/FB ratio of 0.80. He allows an awful lot of fly balls.

Finally, everyone loves to down Tim Lincecum for his lost velocity, but I wonder how many noticed that Johan has lost almost 4.5 mph from his heyday off his heater (it was a career low 88.4 mph last year)?

Could we find Bigfoot by using an aerial drone?

On the plus side…

His 8.54 K.9 rate was a four season best, though still below his 8.83 career mark.

His 3.00 BB/9 mark was still below the league average, and his 2.85 K/BB ratio were still a half batter better than the league average. They might be bad numbers for Santana, but they are fine for a normal hurler.

His line drive rate was 24.0 percent. Even if his stuff is no longer elite that’s a huge number for a guy who owns a career mark under 20 percent.

His HR/F ratio of 11.7 percent was the second worst mark of his career, well above his 9.2 career rate. Some normalization there would help.

The Mets are putting on a brave face saying that they think Johan will be good to go for Opening Day and that he will make 30 starts this season (they had better hope they are right since he is due $25 million this year with another $25 next season unless they buy out his 2014 campaign for $5.5 million). I’m not sold. As an aging hurler with lots of miles on his arm I’m concerned. Add in the shoulder woes he’s dealt with and the historic collapse he tossed out there at the end of last season and you too should be very concerned. There’s nothing wrong with taking a chance on Johan, he still knows how to “pitch,” but with all the issues surrounding him right now he had better be a reserve round type in mixed leagues and not someone you are counting on heavily in 2013.

• Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Is Perception Reality?

A lot of times human beings have a hard time making a decision. Sometimes the decisions we make are well reasoned. Other times our information is faulty, we make rash/uneducated decisions because of it, or we let our hormones out of the box and they cause all kinds of issues (tell me you haven’t been out on a Saturday night at 1 AM and those hormones of yours aren’t telling you to do something that you would never do at 6 PM on a Thursday night. Don’t feel bad. We’ve all been there – some of us more than others). With that as the backdrop let me toss out some information and you can tell me what you would do with it.

PITCHER A: Four seasons of 210 innings and five of 185.
PITCHER B: No season of 180 innings.

PITCHER A: Won at least 13 games on four occasions.
PITCHER B: Never won more than 11 games.

PITCHER A: Career 3.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.81 K/BB, 1.41 GB/FB
PITCHER B: Career 4.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.28 K/BB, 0.88 GB/FB

Is there any person out there, given that data, that wouldn’t take PITCHER A? Of course there isn’t. Obviously, based on the data laid out PITCHER A is not only a more skilled hurler, he’s also the hurler with experience so there would be no reason to take PITCHER B. Of course, as you might have surmised from the extended build up, many this year are drafting PITCHER B first.

Why is this occurring? The prevailing thought is that PITCHER A, coming off the worst season of his career and a dreadful campaign, is no longer someone that can be counted on while PITCHER B is the upwardly mobile hurler who only needs health to excel in 2013. Is that perception reality?

PITCHER A is Tim Lincecum. I won’t go into great detail breaking down Lincecum in this piece since I’ve already done that in Is Tim Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance? In that article I broke  down why I believe that far too much is being made out of Tim’s loss of velocity and why just because he had a terrible season in 2012 doesn’t mean his career is over.

As for PITCHER B, that’s Brandon Morrow. I get it. Morrow is a power arm who I personally touted as a breakout star last year. He posted a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP as he was well on his way to making me look like a genius before injury struck and that ultimately limited him to being on the bump only 21 times. As I noted above, Morrow doesn’t have any big inning seasons under his belt, and while that shouldn’t stop you from targeting him on draft day it’s just a little knock against him that has to be noted. It should also be noted that despite all the success last year that is better than a strikeout an inning arm, he was over 10.15 K/9 in 2010 and 2011, fell to just 7.80 last season. That’s a significant loss (even “terrible” Lincecum was at 9.19). Morrow did further reduce his walk rate, for the first time it was under three batters per nine innings to help offset the loss of Ks, but is that a repeatable number for him? Will Morrow continue to have success keeping the ball in the yard even though his fly ball rate is constantly 5-7 percent above the league average? Does he have any chance of repeating his .252 BABIP from last season which was .039 points below his career norm?

I’m not going to say that drafting Lincecum over Morrow is the right or wrong move (more on that below). I’m merely going to point out that the numbers, and not just the last 12 months but all the numbers, suggest that while everyone out there but me might be favoring Morrow this season that it really shouldn’t be the open and shut case it seems to be for most. Remember, we all do things at times that we regret and usually the best way to avoid those decisions, other than laying off that 6th Midori Sour, is to get as much information as possible to help you to form an accurate picture of what it is that you’re trying to address.

To find out how I ranked Morrow and Lincecum in 2013, and let me tell you it’s about as close as it can be in my book, make sure you get a copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

2013 FSTA LEAGUE

In 2011 I was the FSTA Champion even though I selected Carl Crawford in the first round (he appeared in just 130 games hitting .255 with 65 runs and 18 steals in his worst season of more than 100 games played.). In 2012 I had another first round selection fail to live up to expectations as Evan Longoria had an injury filled campaign. This time I finished in 11th out of 13 teams. Embarrassing. I’m back for blood in 2013. Here’s how the just completed draft went down in Las Vegas (I love vodka and Red Bull by the way… just thought I would share that).

13 teams, Mixed League, 5×5
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Nine pitchers (any combination of SPs and Rps)
Six bench spots

Here’s the team I selected out of the #6 hole (you can see the results of the entire draft at the RT Sports Link). The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted.

C: Joe Mauer (5), Russell Martin (21)
1B: Adam LaRoche (12)
2B: Howie Kendrick (10)
3B: Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI/CI: Asdrubal Cabrera (7), Kevin Youkilis (14)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (1), B.J. Upton (3), Jay Bruce (4), Coco Crisp (18), Denard Span (19)
UT: Mark Reynolds (20)

SP: James Shields (8), Max Scherzer (9), Tim Lincecum (11), Tim Hudson (16), Wandy Rodriguez (22), Shaun Marcum (23), Edinson Volquez (25), Erasmo Ramirez (28)
RP: J.J. Putz (13), Joel Hanrahan (15), Jason Grilli (17), Sean Marshall (29)

BENCH: Chris Young (24), Jemile Weeks (26), Justin Maxwell (27)

So how did this team turn out? Let me explain how things evolved.

I almost took Joey Votto in round one, but instead went for the more well-rounded game of McCutchen.

In the second I nearly took Jose Reyes. Ultimately I went for HanRam who has more power and qualifies at two spots (SS, 3B). I worry a bit about Reyes playing on Astro Turf, the fact that he is been hurt a fair amount, and that he doesn’t steal bases like he once did.

Round three I grabbed B.J. Upton – who now gets to play with his brother Justin Upton in Atlanta. After three rounds I felt like I had three guys who could all go 20/20. I like that.

In Round four I took the power bat of Bruce, who in my eyes isn’t much different than Ginacarlo Stanton who was taken in the first round. Bruce was another strong pick, but his selection caused a problem. Ramirez/Upton/Bruce could get 1,500+ at-bats with a batting average of .260. That’s not a strong start in that category. So, in order to address that situation my next two picks were guys who should be strong batting average plays – Mauer and Prado. I don’t normally take a catcher this early, but Mauer is pretty much a lock for a .300 average. I just hope he plays 140 games. Prado, who was just dealt to Arizona (which could help his offensive game out a wee bit), is another guy with a batting average floor of about .285. He makes contact, steals a few bags, and should score a ton of runs hitting near the top of the D’backs batting order. He also qualifies at third base and the outfield as well which doesn’t hurt.

Noticing that the middle infield was getting really thin, I took Cabrera for my MI spot. I’d be happy with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers (.270-16-68-70-9). Even a repeat would be alright. Jemile Weeks is a forgotten man but just 12 months ago people thought we could be looking at a .280 hitting, 30 steal guy at second base.

Youkilis and Reynolds are my corner infield options. Neither is great, but I should be able to cobble together something solid there. LaRoche at first base is boring but he did hit 33 homers with 100 RBIs last year. I’d rather have him in the 12th round than Ryan Howard in the 5th.

My outfield has an impressive top-3 (McCutchen, Upton, Bruce). Crisp has a great fro, and he’s stolen at least 32 bases each of the last three years. Span has a .285, 95 run season in him in Washington. I’m telling ya. For support I rostered Young and Maxwell, both of whom have huge holes in their games. Still, both have the talent to make a run at a 20/20 season. I only need one to hit.

I did my normal waiting thing on starters, and I like how it turned out. Shields and Scherzer can win 30 games with 400 plus Ks. You don’t think so? Lincecum could win 15 games and strike out 200 too, even if you don’t think he can. As I noted at the draft table, I think Lincecum in the 11th has every chance of matching Yovani Gallardo who was taken in the 9th. Hudson/Wandy/Marcum might all be the same hurler, but as 4-6 starters I like a trio that is going to be solid in the ratio categories (3.50 ERA, 1.25ish WHIP). Volquez has a huge arm (see his Player Profile). No one seems to think much of my Erasmo pick. Hey, the guy pitches for the Mariners, had a 1.00 WHIP an a 4.00 K/BB ratio over 59 innings last season. I’ll take a shot on that.

In the bullpen – huge arms abound. Putz and Hanrahan, if healthy, should give me 70 saves. Those that think Putz is at the end of his rope aren’t looking at the numbers (or the contract extension he was given by the Diamondbacks). Grilli has never been a closer, but he struck out 13.8 batters per nine innings last season and had a 4.09 K/BB ratio. I like that and so should you. Marshall is the best left handed setup man in the NL. If Aroldis Chapman starts as planned, guess who is the #2 option in Cincy for 9th inning work? It’s Marshall who would only be behind Jonathan Broxton, you know the guy who struck out 6.98 batters per nine innings last season, only four batters below his career mark of 10.96. Broxton is also a year removed from a 6.39 BB/9 mark. Sure it was 12.2 innings, but that should make you nervous if you plan on counting on Mr. Broxton.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

Nirvana… Again

Nearly two years ago to the day I wrote the first Nirvana piece. That piece started out… “In the grand scheme of things a championship in sports means nothing, and the life of one person is also rendered insignificant when placed in the context of the world. But I gotta tell you, in this corner of the sphere that we all inhabit, there have been few things that can rival what has occurred over the last 24 hours.” And it happened, again…

For the second time in three years the San Francisco Giants were triumphant in the World Series. For a team that moved to California in 1958, legions of Bay Area fans lived through the decades of defeat. Now, they have been able to bask in the glow of greatness twice in three years. Words escape me to describe what it feels like to witness the triumph yet again. OK, maybe they don’t (you know me so well). Here are some interesting factoids from their run of excellence.

The Giants won their 7th championship, and for those that think Giants fans are used to winning remember that the team has been in existence for 130 years.

The Giants became the first NL team to win two championships in three years since the Big Red Machine won in back-to-back years in 1975-76. In fact, they are only the 5th NL team, ever, to do it (Cubs 1907-08, NY Giants 1921-22, Cardinals ’44 and ’46, Dodgers ’63 and ’65).

The Giants are the 5th team in history to win the World Series after finishing last in baseball in homers.

The Giants led the Tigers for 56-straight innings before Miguel Cabrera’s HR in the 3rd inning of Game 4. It was the second longest streak in post-season history.

Over the last seven games of the playoffs the Giants team ERA was 0.98. The starters ERA was much higher… 0.99.

Giants relievers pitched 11.2 innings in the World Series allowing two hits, two runs and striking out 17.

Tim Lincecum threw five games out of the bullpen in the playoffs and over those 13 innings he posted a 0.69 ERA while striking out 17 batters.

Buster Posey hit only .200 in the playoffs, but in the three series clinching games Posey drove in six runs while hitting two homers.

Pablo Sandoval won the World Series MVP Award as he hit .500 with three homers. Only three other men have reached both of those totals in a World Series – Babe Ruth (1928), Lou Gehrig (1928, 1932) and Hideki Matsui (2009). He still needs to lose about 45 lbs, but there is no disputing that the man can hit.

Marco Scutaro, nicknamed “The Blockbuster” by his teammates (cause he was the blockbuster addition of the trade deadline), had about as impressive four month run you will ever see from a non-elite player. Scutaro hit .362 with the Giants over 61 games and tied Derek Jeter for the major league lead with 88 hits in that time. Scutaro then went on to hit .500 in the Giants 7-game victory over the Cardinals in the NLCS, and over his last 11 playoff games he had at least two hits eight times. Fittingly it was his hit in the 10th inning that led to the Giants’ World Series victory.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Starting Pitchers: Misses

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

Cliff Lee (#3): He “missed,” but through no fault of his own. Lee won six games. S I X. Lee had a 3.16 ERA, the 15th best mark in baseball. Lee was the only pitcher in baseball with an ERA under 3.75 who failed to win at least 10 games. Lee also posted a 1.11 WHIP, the 10th best mark in the game. Lee also punched out 207 batters, the 10th best mark in baseball. Add in his 7.39 K/BB ratio, the best in baseball, and you have an elite hurler who was saddled by terrible support from his team.

Roy Halladay (#4): Failing to make 30 starts for the first time since 2004, Halladay had his first disappointing season since that year. Given his draft day cost 11 wins, a 4.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 156.1 innings was a massive disappointment. Not only did he fail to throw 220 innings for the first time since 2005, he also had his lowest win total since ’04, his first ERA over 3.75 since 2004, and his worst WHIP in five years. It’s fair to wonder if the 35 year old will ever be dominant again.

Tim Lincecum (#6): Awful. I wanted to leave him off the list, to just ignore what happened, but of course I couldn’t. His ERA (5.18) was two runs above normal, and his K total was a five year low, though he still struck out more than a batter an inning with 190 in 186 innings. At least he wasn’t awful in the second half (3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 86 Ks in 89.1 innings).

Jon Lester (#12): A rock for four years, that facade crumbled in 2012. Lester won only nine games after 4-straight 15 win seasons. He posted a 4.82 ERA after 4-straight years under 3.50. He posted a 1.38 WHIP, his highest mark in five years. He struck out 166 batters, his lowest total in four years. A letdown from a guy that seemed like such rock solid option on draft day.

Ricky Romero (#17): Just plain awful. See Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft.

Josh Beckett (#18): Won only seven games, lost a career worst 14, and saw his ERA bulge to 4.65. Beckett, who had struck out eight batters per nine in each of the past five seasons, didn’t even rack up seven per nine with a 6.97 mark, and the resulting 2.54 K/BB ratio was his worst mark since 2006. There’s no way around it – Beckett was a terrible disappointment.

Tommy Hanson (#23): He won a 4-year best 13 games while tossing 174.2 innings. He also basically matched his career mark with an 8.30 K/9 rate. However, he lost 10 games, saw his ERA soar to 4.48, and his WHIP ballooned to 1.45. Clearly his shoulder wasn’t at 100 percent, and it’s fair to be concerned about his outlook moving forward if he truly has lost three mph off his heater.

Stephen Strasburg (#30): He won 15 games, struck out 197 batters, posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He was spectacular. If only he had made four more starts…

Ubaldo Jimenez (#34): He’s never coming “back.” The first half version of 2010 was never going to return – he’s not the second coming of Bob Gibson – and at this point it’s fair to wonder if Ubaldo is even worth counting on at all in mixed leagues. Not only did he strike batters out at a career worst 7.28 per nine his walks exploded to a career worst 4.84. The resulting 1.51 K/BB ratio is really the only number you will need to focus on with Ubaldo – it signifies doom.

Johnny Cueto (#45): I admit it. I was wrong about Cueto. I wanted to see another year with strong work given that his 2011 effort was such an outlier compared to his performance over his first thee major league seasons. Consider Cueto to have definitively answered that call. Cueto is in line for NL CY Young consideration thanks to 19 wins, a 2.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 170 Ks in a career best 217 innings.

Jake Peavy (#72): I didn’t think he, or Johan Santana, could do it. Santana failed as I expected (6-9, 4.85 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 117 innings), but Peavy was a fantasy star, especially given his draft day cost as Peavy went only 11-12, but he threw 219 innings with a 3.37 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The ERA was his best mark since 2008, the WHIP his best since 2007, and 2012 was the first time that he pitched more than 120 innings in four years.

R.A. Dickey (#78): Oh come on, everyone missed on Dickey. Look back at your preseason guides and I think you’ll find my ranking was as favorable as most. Dickey had surgery on his abdominal tear and should be fine by opening day, so it’s not a real worry. Dickey won 20 games, was second in the NL in ERA (2.73) and first in strikeouts (230). A simply remakrbale season for a hurler who depends on a “trick” pitch almost exclusive. It might have been the most dominating season in the history of the game for a knuckleballer.

Jarrod Parker (#109): He won 13 games as a rookie with a 3.47 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the course of 181.1 innings. It was a great season by any measure. He was saddled with a 26 percent line drive rate, an incredibly high mark, or his effort might even have been a wee bit better.

By Ray Flowers

Winners and Losers

  The 2012 season was quite the year. We saw a Triple Crown winner, Oakland stun the Rangers, and Lew Ford make a return from the baseball dead. The fantasy world was no stranger to shocks and surprises this year either. Like no other year in recent memory, the preseason rankings were flipped on their head. Many players greatly exceeded their draft day expectations, while just as many flopped. Here are the three players that disappointed the most in 2012 and the three players that gave their fantasy owners the most bang for their buck.

Disappointments

Adrian Gonzalez drew the ire of each and every one of his fantasy owners this season. He posted only 18 home runs and 108 runs batted in over the course of his disappointing 2012 season. A consensus second round pick or better this spring, Gonzalez failed to live up to his billing and even switched leagues mid-season, much to the chagrin of his AL-only owners. While he was fortunate enough to escape the sinking ship in Boston, he more than likely capsized the season of those who drafted him. Despite the fact that he added outfield eligibility in many leagues and still managed to hit .299, he was unquestionably one of the biggest busts of the 2012 season.

After years of consistent power production, Mike Napoli added batting average to his repertoire in 2011. Coming off a season in which he hit .320, Napoli was among the first catchers off the board this spring. However, if you invested in Mr. Napoli this season you undoubtedly were none too pleased with his efforts. Despite hitting in a potent Rangers lineup, he was only able to post a .227 batting average and 56 runs batted in. Couple this with the comparisons to Adrian Beltre (.321-36-102-95) and Josh Hamilton’s (.285-4-128-103) outstanding seasons and it makes his performance look even worse.

Nobody has fallen from grace quite as quickly as Tim Lincecum. After the previous four seasons in which he recorded 62 wins, well over 200 strikeouts each season, and a pair of NL Cy Young Awards, Lincecum’s 2012 season was an absolute disaster. How bad was it? He finished dead last in the NL in ERA (5.18) and WHIP (1.47) among qualifying pitchers and recorded only 10 wins, the fewest since his rookie campaign. Some have blamed a dip in his velocity for his poor results while others blame it on his unorthodox mechanics. One thing that is undeniable, however, is that The Freak did not return his draft day value at all.

Successes

Chances are if you drafted Mike Trout, you won your league in 2012. Arguably the best player in the game already, Trout posted an unprecedented rookie campaign and is a legit challenger for the AL MVP Award. While Trout was mostly an afterthought on draft day, those who remembered the name were rewarded beyond their wildest dreams as he posted a .326 batting average, 30 homers, and an AL leading 129 runs and 49 stolen bases. As good as he was in 2012, he may only be scratching the surface. Though he will mostly likely miss out on the 2012 MVP award, he almost certainly has one coming in his future.

R.A. Dickey was the story of the season in Major League Baseball. Ranked outside the top-50 starting pitchers coming into the season, all Dickey did was lead the National League in strikeouts (230) and record 20 wins. He pitched three shutouts on his way to the number one rank among fantasy pitchers in 2012 in standard scoring. While there are certainly questions about the sustainability of his success, his ability to overcome personal demons and career journeyman status in 2012 is nothing short of incredible.

This is going to be a tough read for Tigers and Angels fans. While those clubs endured issues in the back end of their bullpens, their former stopper Fernando Rodney, enjoyed a remarkable season. Kyle Farnsworth entered 2012 as the closer for Tampa but a spring injury to the big fella opened a door for Rodney, a door that he slammed shut time after time. After only one year with more than 14 saves in his career, Rodney recorded 48 in 2012 with an ERA under one. He ended the season as the number one reliever and was truly dominant all season long. Rodney was probably not drafted in most leagues, making him the best relief value of the season.

Written By Jordan Hall