Pointing Out the Obvious

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m headed to the FSTA Conference today in San Francisco to do the first experts football draft of the year. But you know me, I can’t let a day go without talking about baseball.

How in the world am I still getting questions from people about should they add Scott Baker to their staff? Have you people been listening to me at all? I’ve been saying go all in with Baker since January. Over, an over, an over again I keep saying it. Why is no one listening? So let me say it for the last time. YES, ADD BAKER. He has a 8.39 K/9 mark, 3.39 K/BB, 3.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. If you’re in a league where that doesn’t help you it must be an eight team mixed league.

Neftali Feliz has converted 3-straight save chances, and his ERA is 1.21 on the year. So everything is fine, right? Not so fast. I know everyone panicked and ran away from Joakim Soria when he lost his closing job a few weeks back (Hopefully you didn’t do that and listened to me when I said to hold on to the struggling arm who would like be re-inserted into the closers role quickly if he showed a turnaround. That’s exactly what happened after a trio of solid outings as a setup man). Why did I switch from talking about Feliz to Soria? Do me a favor and look at their numbers this season next to one another. I’ll bet dollar to doughnuts that you’ll be surprised that Soria has easily outpitched Feliz.

Feliz: 5.50 xFIP, 4.84 K/9, 5.64 BB/9, 0.62 GB/FB, 95.4 LOB%
Soria: 3.87 xFIP, 7.14 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 1.19 GB/FB, 67.8 LOB%

The only reason that anyone thinks that Feliz is pitching better than Soria is because of an immense amount of luck for the Rangers’ closer. He’s pitched worse than Soria by nearly any measure, and has only been successful because of his insanely high left on base percentage amongst other things.

What’s wrong with Tim Lincecum? That’s a question I’ve gotten a couple of times the past few days. Over his last three outings Lincecum has looked awful, he’s allowed 22 hits and 16 runs over 15.1 innings, so I understand the concern from people. At the same time, his current WHIP is 1.19. His career mark is 1.18. His current batting average against is .233. His career mark is .225. His current walk rate is 3.02 per nine. His career mark is 3.23. His current BABIP is .294. His career mark is .296. His current xFIP is 3.03. His career mark is 3.15 and his mark last season was 3.09. Yes his K’s are down about three quarters of a batter per nine, but his 9.16 mark is still stellar. So what’s wrong with Lincecum? Nothing. His performance for the year is exactly where we should expect it to be it’s just been a roller coaster ride.

Hunter Pence is dealing with a minor back issue that has dogged him for a few days, but he should return to action on Monday. Pence has one of the quietest 22 game hitting streaks in recent memory to boost his average up to .318 on the year. His performance to date, if extended out over the season, would result in a 5×5 effort of .318-19-112-80-7, a pretty darn solid line and one that would place him amongst the top-15 outfielders in the fantasy game if he were to keep it up.

And finally, a Jose Bautista update. Over his last 11 games Bautista has hit .222 to drop his season long average from .360 to .338. He’s also homered in just one of his last 14 games. He’s still second in the AL in batting average and leads major league baseball in homers with one more than Curtis Granderson and Matt Kemp, but I just thought I would point it out to those of you who think Jose is a lock to be the AL MVP this year.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 5, 2011

(1) Tim Lincecum makes strikeout history as his fastball speed returns thanks to his offseason training (for more see Link O’ Rama).

(2) Josh Johnson the best early season pitcher in the game.

(3) Aaron Crow showing Royals his worth as a pen ace.

(4) Carl Crawford finally hitting, making history.

(5) Adrian Gonzalez productive, minus the power.

By Ray Flowers

Link o’ Rama

Today I’m gonna take you on a magical ride around the internet filled with links to many of the articles that I’ve found particularly interesting. You can thank me later.

Did you see the story about Tim Lincecum and his disgusting eating habits? Little Timmy puts away a meal of more than 3,000 calories when he visits In-N-Out Burger. I have no idea how such a little guy could eat such a massive amount of calories.

Speaking of the San Francisco Giants – uh, um – the World Champion San Francisco Giants, over at Golden Gate Giants Dave Tobener give his take on how the roster is shaping up.

Did  you know that baseball wasn’t invented by Abner Doubleday? Historian John Thorn is challenging many of the beliefs about the foundation of the game.  Speaking of Thorn, he also wrote a piece in which he trumpets the history of the game over the analytical approach that has led to sabermetrics.

Did you catch this series of articles written by yours truly? Trust me, if you’ve got 30 minutes of your life to completely waste, these articles are as good a way as any to spend that time.

My Life in Fantasy Sports

My Top-300 for 2011

Who should be the #3 selection after Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez?

Interested in a completely FREE 2011 Fantasy Baseball Guide?

Which players are getting little love on draft day but could still end up being a top-50 overall performer in the fantasy game in 2011? In Undervalued Performers for 2011 the experts speak out. Speaking of this piece, my potential breakout guy that no one is giving much love to is Cameron Maybin. Here’s a nice write up on the potential topflight fantasy performer by Scott Miller.

Happy St. Patrick’s day to my Irish Brethren. How does MLB Celebrate St. Patty’s Day?

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Random Musings

After the last couple of days where I’ve hit the “attach” button in email about nine zillion times sending out player capsules for designated hitters and catchers (thanks to all of you for your continued support), I thought I’d give myself a break and break down some of the more intriguing stories on the diamond with a particular focus on injuries.

* Adam Wainwright is done for 2011 as he’ll need Tommy John surgery. With a recovery time frame of 12-18 months, it’s not at all certain that he will be back on the hill for Opening Day 2012. Not only is that an obviously crushing blow to the Cards, it’s also a massive damper in the fantasy game which brings up two points.

(1) As much as I love doing mock drafts, having a draft for a league that you are actually going to play out before the month of March is crazy. In fact, you might want to push back your draft to late March because some big player is always hurt in camp leaving a gaping hole on the roster of the person who took that player. This year it was the Wainwright owner. Last year it was Joe Nathan who hosed me in my AL-only league leaving my team, well, to put it bluntly, screwed.

(2) The injury to Wainwright is reason #736 why drafting a pitcher in the first couple of rounds of a fantasy draft is such a risk. Any player can be injured at any time, but the chance of a catastrophic injury to a pitcher is far greater than one to an every day player.

* Just for the hell of it. Vernon Wells, who no one seems to like in fantasy or the real world (that is unless you are in the Angels’ front office), had three more RBI last year than Jayson Werth (88 to 85).

* Say it with me — I’m scared when health challenged players are already having problems early in camp. Some thoughts.

Justin Morneau: He’s progressing in his return from his concussion, even hitting live pitching the past two days which brings up two questions. (1) What the hell is live pitching? Is there “dead” pitching? (2) How bad are things with Morneau that we legitimately get happy hearing that he did something about 137.2 million kids have done the past two days. The Twins say he is still on pace to make the opening day roster, so we’ll all continue to send Justin happy thoughts. For more on Morneau click on Circling the Bases, my weekly column that will be featured at Rotowire.com.

Brian Roberts: He said he tweaked his neck while sleeping (apparently staying up late to watch infomercials about the Ab Crunch 7000 can make your neck sore). He’s missed a couple of days and could return to the field on Friday. Still, after all of his setbacks last season with his back, consider me exceedingly nervous with the talented second sacker.

Grady Sizemore: The 28 year old outfielder ran sprints this week for the first time since having microfracture surgery on his knee. Now we get a report from Buster Olney that it appears likely Sizemore will begin the year on the DL because he’s just not ready to go. I don’t know about you, but this guy scares the bejeus out of me and that’s hard to do because of my love of horror movies.

* Can anyone help me to understand why I’m borderline obsessed with Kristen Stewart of Twilight fame? She’s attractive sure, but it’s not like she is a bombshell or anything, and half the time she looks like she has been puffing on the magic dragon. Still, when she is on the screen I just can’t take my eyes off her.  By the way, I saw all three of the Twilight movies with my girlfriend at the time, and while I may not be a 16 year teen in throws of hormonal upheaval, I will admit to liking them – at least a little bit.

* Don’t forget about Alex Gordon on draft day. Ned Yost, Royals’ manager, is impressed with how Gordon has looked after working with hitting coach Kevin Seitzer this offseason. This is likely Gordon’s last shot to earn a full-time role with the Royals, a shocking admission for a guy who was taken 2nd overall in the 2005 Draft. I won’t reach for Gordon, but in rounds 25 and up in mixed leagues he’s as worthy as most of the riff raff that will be called out.

* Just for the hell of it Part II. Juan Pierre led the majors last year with 18 caught stealing which happens to be the same steal total that Hunter Pence and Justin Upton posted.

* And finally a parting shot. Remember sample size people. Don’t make the mistake of simply looking at a month of games, or a handful of starts from a pitcher, and think you’ve got it all figured out. Anyone can look good, or conversely horrible, if you take a quick snapshot. You want proof?
This pitcher went 0-5 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.82 WHIP In August.
Who is this hurler?

The answer will likely shock some. It is Tim Lincecum who won 16 games, posted a solid 3.43 ERA, had a 1.27 WHIP and had 231 Ks to lead the NL. By the way, The Freak rebounded after his atrocious month of pitching to go 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in September.

Sample size people.

By Ray Flowers

The Strikeout: Starters

You are all aware that I host The Fantasy Drive each day on SirusXM Fantasy Sports Radio right? If you weren’t aware I do, and you can catch the fantasy sports talk from 5-8PM EDT daily, Monday through Friday, on channels XM 147 and Sirius 211. Now that the infomercial section of the article is over, let’s get to the relevance of why I brought this up.

As part of my work with SiriusXM, I was tasked with putting together a 10-15 minute segment on the art of strikeout. When the wheels started turning I was able to work up a list of some rather interesting bits o’ information, so I thought I would share that with you all in print as well.

The 2010 Season

I don’t know if pitchers are getting better, if batters are getting worse, if it was a one anomaly, or if the removal of PED’s from the game has helped to level the playing field, but 2010 was a very good year for pitchers.

* In 2010 pitchers posted a K/9 mark of 7.13. That was the highest mark of the 21st century (from 2000-10 the big league average has been 6.67).

* The last five years the K/9 rate has gone up from 6.38 to 7.13 per nine.

The Targets

What numbers would you look to as “targets” when it comes to the strikeout? Here are some thoughts.

(1) Don’t overlook guys who didn’t post huge strikeout totals as it’s much more important to pay attention to the context of a strikeout, in this case the K/9 mark of a hurler. A perfect example is Bud Norris. He “only” had 158 Ks last year, but that’s because he pitched only 153.2 innings. On the other hand, his K/9 rate was as exceedingly impressive 9.25. Look at the ratio versus the raw K-total, it’s much more valuable when trying to discern who the strikeout aces are.

(2) In the fantasy game, I wouldn’t target a starter with a K/9 mark under 6.50 or a reliever under 7.50. Starters can have success below that level without a doubt – especially extreme ground ballers are but one example of the type of hurler that could still succeed with mediocre strike rates – but I’d prefer a staff of guys like Bud Morris and Brandon Morrow over the Derek Lowe’s and Jake Westbrook’s of the world every time.

(3) Even though this is about the strikeout, make sure to look at walks as well. Heat does you no good if you can’t throw strikes (hello Oliver Perez). In 2010 pitchers posted a 2.17 K/BB mark thanks to the extra strikeouts and a 5-year low of 3.28 in the BB/9 column. As a result, the 2.17 K/BB mark was the best in the 21st century.

Starting Pitchers

With that primer, here is a list of the top strikeout artists, as defined by their K/9 marks, from the 2010 season.

K/9 Amongst qualifiers – minimum 162 IP

9.79 Tim Lincecum
9.74 Jon Lester
9.73 Yovani Gallardo
9.54 Jonathan Sanchez
9.44 Francisco Liriano
9.35 Jered Weaver
9.34 Clayton Kershaw
9.21 Mat Latos
9.11 Josh Johnson
9.10 Cole Hamels
8.79 Justin Verlander
8.78 Colby Lewis
8.69 Ryan Dempster
8.69 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.46 Max Scherzer
8.36 Felix Hernandez
8.32 Adam Wainwright
8.28 James Shields
8.27 Dan Haren
8.22 Wandy Rodriguez

If we drop down the innings pitched mark a bit lower, here is the list that we come up with (players in italics are new additions to the above list).

K/9 – minimum 100 IP

10.95 Brandon Morrow
9.79 Tim Lincecum
9.74 Jon Lester
9.73 Yovani Gallardo
9.54 Jonathan Sanchez
9.52 Manny Parra
9.44 Francisco Liriano
9.35 Jered Weaver
9.34 Clayton Kershaw
9.25 Bud Norris
9.21 Mat Latos
9.11 Josh Johnson
9.10 Cole Hamels
9.04 Jhoulys Chacin
8.79 Justin Verlander
8.78 Colby Lewis
8.69 Ryan Dempster
8.69 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.46 Max Scherzer
8.41 Hisanori Takahashi

Mr. Morrow ends up leading baseball with a K/9 rate of 10.95. If he were able to maintain that rate over 190 innings that would lead to 231 strikeouts, the same total that Tim Lincecum posted which was the best mark in the NL. However, Brandon Morrow, Manny Parra, Bud Norris and Jhoulys Chacin, while major strikeout contributors, all posted a BB/9 mark over 4.00, so they certainly come with risk.

Starters to Target

The following group of pitchers are those starters you should target, ones with a K/9 of 7.00 and a K/BB above 2.75 last season (min. 100 IP). There were only 26 such hurlers in 2010.

Roy Halladay
Tommy Hanson
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Matt Cain
Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Mat Latos
Jered Weaver
Zack Greinke
Jake Peavy
Josh Johnson
Shaun Marcum
Colby Lewis
Dan Haren
Justin Verlander
Francisco Liriano
Adam Wainwright
Roy Oswalt
Scott Baker
Ted Lilly

Here are five more who made the list who might not have been obvious considering the other aspects of their pitching performance last season..

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlin’s hurler has a 4.81 ERA past two years despite some excellent work on the hill. His K/9 mark of 8.98 is 7th best in baseball in that time, while his 4.44 K/BB ratio is 4th best. Buy low on him if you can.

Travis Wood: The rookie had a rather solid K/9 mark of 7.54, and with a lack of walks he was able to post a strong 3.31 K/BB.

James Shields: – Despite 15 Loses and 5.18 ERA, Shields actually posted the best K/9 of his career at 8.28. Shields also posted a strong 3.67 K/BB, just slightly off his career 3.70 mark. Buy him at a discount this year, he’s as good as he has ever been.

Hiroki Kuroda: The Dodgers’ depth starter had a 7.29 K/9 (the best of career), which led to a similarly impressive 3.31 K/BB mark. He isn’t a fantasy ace, but he is a fine option to round out a staff.

Jason Hammel : The Rockies’ righty had a career best 7.14 K/9 and a solid 3.00 K/BB (it was 3.17 in ’09). He will be a bargain on draft day after posting a poor 4.81 ERA in ’10.

Solid Pitchers to Avoid
Ground ball types: Carl Pavano (4.76 K/9), Mike Pelfrey (4.99), Bronson Arroyo (5.05), Dallas Braden (5.28),Fausto Carmona (5.31), Tim Hudson (5.47), Jake Westbrook (5.68), Brett Cecil (6.10), Derek Lowe (6.32).

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: What Stands Out?

With the fantasy sports world just about over football – for those of you that have already moved on the Superbowl is in a week – mock drafts for baseball are really starting to heat up. Today, in preparation for our discussion on the Fanball Fantasy Drive (you can hear the show every day, from 5-8 PM EDT, on Sirius 211 and XM 147 – you can call in with your questions on any fantasy sport), I thought I would point out some of the interesting ADP trends that stuck out for me when I was reviewing things over at MockDraftCentral this morning.

Third Base Going Early

Almost the first term out of everyone’s mouth this draft season seems to be “position scarcity.” There are a couple of positions that seem pretty top heavy with shortstop and third base being at the head of the list. When looking at the ADP information we find fourth third basemen going in the top-20 selections: Evan Longoria (ADP of 5 overall), David Wright (10), Alex Rodriguez (16) and Ryan Zimmerman (20). I completely agree that those are the top-4 third sackers on the board, but I really wonder if it’s worth reaching on Longoria as a top-5 option. Just compare his numbers last season to Zimmerman.

Longoria: .294-22-104-96-15
Zimmerman: .307-25-85-85-4

Longoria certainly has a higher ceiling, but I’d lean toward Zimmerman in the second versus Longoria that early given the return on investment (ROI) opportunity.

The Top-5 Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (4), Jose Reyes (26), Jimmy Rollins (43), Derek Jeter (48) – that’s your top-5. Only two other shortstops are in the top-100: Elvis Andrus (71) and Alex Ramirez (100).

Hanley Ramirez OPS dropped .101 points last year. He’s also seen his homer total dip from 33 to 21 the last three years while his runs scored marked has gone from 125 to 92. Is he really the no-doubt #2 man overall?

Reyes 17 picks ahead of Rollins? I’m not buying that. You can read about my thoughts on those two in Top-10 SS for 2011. I also don’t think that Jeter is a bad pickup this year (The Value of Jeter). At the same time, Ramirez hit .012 points higher than Jeter, with eight more homers, three more RBI and just five fewer steals last season – and he is available 52 picks later.

Only One SP in Top-20

Only one starting pitcher is going in the top-20, and that is the Phillies’ Roy Halladay. Most people tend to eschew starting pitching early in drafts because there is more volatility with pitchers from year to year. At the same time, with hitting on the decline, perhaps pitchers should be taken a bit earlier? Nah. Only two other hurlers are going in the top-34: Tim Lincecum (21) and Felix Hernandez (27).

* Riddle me this – which one of these pitching lines would you want most?

12-9, 3.18 ERA, 185 Ks, 1.00 WHIP in 212.1 IP
13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP
11-6, 2.30 ERA, 186 Ks, 1.11 WHIP in 183.2 IP

Those numbers belong to Cliff Lee (37), Clayton Kershaw (51) and Josh Johnson (66). Are you sure you want to reach that early for Mr. Lee?

Hell, do you want Lincecum (21) over Kershaw (51) given what each will cost you?

Lincecum: 16-10, 3.43 ERA, 231 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 212.1 IP
Kershaw: 13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP

* When are most teams jumping in and taking their #1 starter? Look at picks 53-66 for that as eight of those 14 picks are being spent on starting pitchers.

People Waiting on RPs

Not surprisingly, the best closer in the history of baseball is being drafted first at the position as Mariano Rivera has an ADP of 61. Only four other relievers are going in the top-100 with a clear grouping of three others being taken ahead of everyone else: Carlos Marmol (71), Brian Wilson (77), Joakim Soria (78). After that, we have to wait until Heath Bell at 96.

People Waiting on Catchers

Five catchers are being taken in the top-100 as people seem acutely aware of the fact that injuries can bite backstops at any time. Moreover, only six catchers are going in the next 100 picks meaning that in standard 12 team, 1 catcher leagues, someone is waiting until after the 200th selection to take first catcher. Currently, the 12th and 13th catchers off the board are Yadier Molina (215) and Carlos Ruiz (221). Those are the two catchers I selected in Vegas Baby, and the FSTA (that league starts two catchers).

* Catchers going in the 300′s that could be decent bargains in 2011: Chris Iannetta (337), Yorvit Torrealba (372) and J.P. Arencebia (374).

You can read more about Torrealba in Californian’s on the Move, and if the dumba– Rockies would just give Iannetta regular at-bats, he could be a fantasy beast. Per 541 at-bats in his career, Iannetta has produced an average of 25 homers and 91 RBI. Think Mike Napoli-lite.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Holiday Dealings

Less than a week away from Christmas, plenty of teams are more than willing to open their gifts early. In what follows I’ll touch on a few of the players who have recently decided where they should send their holiday greetings from.

Rick Ankiel: The Nationals took a chance on Monday and signed Rick Ankiel to a 1-year deal worth $1.5 million (there are performance bonuses built in to the deal – reportedly up to $1.25 million). Ankiel will likely battle with Roger Bernadina for playing time in left field, though if Nyjer Morgan doesn’t turn his life around and perform better on the field, the defensively gifted Ankiel could also see time in center field. Ankiel hit .264 with 25 homers in 2008, but over the past two years he has batted a meager .232 with 17 homers. There are plenty of holes in his swing leading to a bushel of strikeouts (once every 3.69 at-bats), but the power is legit. Ankiel has hit a homer every 22.8 at-bats in his career which would equate to 18 homers over the course of 400 at-bats. He’s worth keeping a close eye on in NL-only leagues.

Zack Greinke: I always do what I can to mooch off Ted Carlson, he’s a smart guy and a wonderful writer, so I’m gonna point everyone to his full review of the Greinke to Brewers move in From Blue to Brew. My thoughts? Good for the Brewers. They can now team Greinke with Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum for a fantastic top-3 that rivals the best in the NL. I know I’m gonna hear it from Phillies and Giants fans, so let’s do a side by side comparison of each teams top-3 hurlers based on their 2010 numbers.

Brewers: Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum
Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt (sorry Cole Hamels)
Giants: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez

Brewers: 37-29, 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.19 K/9 in 600.1 IP
Phillies: 46-32, 3.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.96 K/9 in 674.2 IP
Giants: 42-30, 3.22 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.77 K/9 in 629 IP

OK, maybe the Brewers threesome didn’t quite matchup, but admit it, it’s a lot closer than you though it would be other than that unsightly ERA, isn’t it?

Austin Kearns: Signed a 1-year deal with the Indians. I joked earlier at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account that Kearns seems to always fool someone into given him 300 at-bats. Looks like it will be the Indians chance this season. I’m not going to deny that Kearns has some talent, but com on now. He is always hurt and frequently doesn’t contribute much of anything above a replacement level type bat, a fact that can clearly be seen when you place his career slash line (.257/.353/.423) against that of the league during his career (.268/.339/.429).

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlins and Nolasco finally agreed on a deal that will buy out his final two years of arbitration and his first year of free agency. His haul comes to $26.5 million over three years. While that seems like a whole lot of cashola for a guy who has posted ERA’s of 5.06 and 4.51 the past two years, I think it’s a great signing for the Marlins. Some facts that cover the last three years (minimum 480 innings pitched).

(1) Nolasco has allowed 10.99 base runners per nine innings, the 16th best mark in baseball and ahead of guys like Matt Cain (11.07), Jon Danks (11.36), Justin Verlander (11.51) and Clayton Kershaw (11.57).

(2) Nolasco has the seventh best K/9 rate in the game at 8.56, better than Dan Haren (8.53), Josh Johnson (8.51), Zack Greinke (8.37) and Ubaldo Jimenez (8.23).

(3) Nolasco is fourth in baseball with a 4.44 K/BB mark. The major league average the past three years is just 2.07.

So how in the world does he have a 4.31 ERA the past three years? Great question, especially when his FIP mark has been 3.77, 3.35 and 3.86 the past three seasons signifying that he is indeed performing at a very high level. Bad luck maybe?

I’ll tell you this. If you asked me where would I draft a guy with a K/9 rate over 8.50 and a K/BB rate of nearly 4.50, I would tell you top-20 amongst starters for sure. In fact, I’d probably be able to make an argument for at least including that arm in my top-15, and that’s exactly why I think the Marlins did so well here – there just aren’t that many pitchers in baseball of baseball who can post a K/9 mark of 8.50 and a K/BB rate of better than 4.40 to one. In fact, over the last three years there have only been two men who have accomplished that feat – Mr. Nolasco and Mr. Haren.

Chan Ho Park: The 37 year old righty is likely done as a big league pitcher after signing a deal with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan. Park, who once allowed two grand slams to Fernando Tatis in one inning (April 23, 1999), would retire from the big leagues with 124 victories and 1,715 strikeouts in just under 2,000 innings (1993). Hopefully he will be content pitching closer to his homeland of Korea.

By Ray Flowers

AL CY and Two Deals

AL CY Young – A Job Well Done

I’m completely shocked. I mean, out of my mind confused right now. How in the world did the Baseball Writers Association of America get it right? I mean, this is on par with Copernicus discovering that the center of the universe was the Sun and not the Earth. What do I speak of? Of course I’m referring to the BBWAA selection of the Mariners’ Felix Hernandez as the AL Cy Young winner for 2010. I made my case for King Felix to be in the winner in Who is the AL Cy Young? Here is how I closed that piece.

“It will never happen, voters just won’t be able to look past the low win total, but the best pitcher in the AL this season was King Felix.”

I mean, no pitcher had ever won the the award with fewer than 15 wins – Tim Lincecum in 2010 – and his election last year caused many to pause because of the low win total.

Guess I was wrong.

King Felix won by a handy margin of 167 points to 111 for David Price and 102 for CC Sabathia (you can read the full results at the BBWAA website).

Congrats BBWAA – you did a wonderful job here.

A’s Move Davis to Blue Jays

Athletics Receive: Daniel Farquhar and Trystan Magnuson
Blue Jays Receive: Rajai Davis

The two minor league arms would appear to have some potential, and you can read about them in A’s Clear Outfield Crunch.

As for Davis, he is burner who owns one impressive set of wheels. Over the past two years he has stolen 91 bases, while being caught 23 times, and those 91 thefts place him fourth in baseball (Michael Bourn leads the way with 113, Carl Crawford has 109 and Juan Pierre has 98). However, Davis isn’t much more than that. Despite 143 games and 525 at-bats last season he scored only 66 runs because he just can’t get on base (.320 OBP in ’10, just below his .330 career mark). He also sports little power with only 12 career homers. In essence, he is Juan Pierre Jr. He is plenty valuable in the fantasy game, and should continue to run wild with the Blue Jays, but he just isn’t that great a real world player. Pay close attention to where he hits for the Blue Jays. If they stupidly allow him to hit at the top of the order he could score a bunch of runs in 2011, but his skill set is really better suited for the bottom third of the lineup.

Barmes Now an Astro

Astros Receive: Clint Barmes
Rockies Receive: Felipe Paulino

I’m not going to argue that the Astros needed to do something to bolster their middle infield, but the question I have is whether or not Barmes should have be looked at as the answer. He is versatile in that he played 69 games at second and 39 at shortstop last year (career: 333 games at short, 306 at second), but that bat of his is where I have major concerns.

(1) Here are Barmes’ career numbers: .254/.300/.404. The NL average since he began his career in 2003 is .261/.331/.416 which makes Barmes a below big league average performer in his career.

(2) While that career slash line is awful, his work away from Coors Field in his career had been pathetic, dreadful, abysmal, rancid — choose whichever adjective you like to describe his .222/.266/.352 line in more than 1,160 at-bats on the road.

That brings us back to where we started, so let’s ask the question again – did the Astros really improve their middle infield position?

As for Paulino, guy has a great arm and is just 27 years old. He has had some injury issues, and there are certainly concerns about how he will do in Colorado, but this seems like a big win for the Rockies. Paulino may have a sickly 6-21 record through three big league seasons, but he also sports a 8.08 K/9 mark that hints at his potential. I’m not saying I’m gonna draft Paulino in every league next season, but I will say when you can get a potential #3 starter for a middle infielder who isn’t even a big league average hitter, you have done pretty well.

By Ray Flowers

Nirvana

In the grand scheme of things a championship in sports means nothing, and the life of one person is also rendered insignificant when placed in the context of the world. But I gotta tell you, in this corner of the sphere that we all inhabit, there have been few things that can rival what has occurred over the last 24 hours.

I’ve never been married or ever welcomed a child into this world, so I don’t have that frame of reference to draw upon, but I can tell you this – in the pantheon of events that have shaped my life, this event ranks near the top of the list.

Willie May, Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Juan Marichal, Barry Bonds – some of the greatest players ever to done a uniform – were never able to bring a World Championship to San Francisco. In more recent years players such as Jeff Leonard, Will Clark, Kevin Mitchell, John Burkett, John Beck and Jeff Kent were also unable to bring the World Series trophy home to San Francisco.

On Monday night, November 1st, 2010, that all changed.

The names will likely be forgotten in a few years if you aren’t a Giants fan. Honestly, some of the players might not even be at the forefront of your mind right now (Sergio Romo, Travis Ishikawa, Javier Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Fontenot, Nate Schierholtz), but isn’t that the wonder of baseball? The sport is more than one great player leading a team to victory through sheer will and determination. The grind of six months of a regular season an another month for the playoffs offers the chance for numerous players to make history or to step to the fore at a moments notice. Cody Ross? I mean seriously, unless you were a Marlins’ fan or a fantasy baseball addict, did you even know who he was prior to the postseason? Edgar Renteria? Wasn’t he washed up and heading off into retirement after the worst season of his career (.276-3-22)? My goodness, he didn’t even start the first five games of the playoffs for the Giants. But that was the beauty of the 2010 Giants. They may not have been a team filled with “names,” but they had timely hitting, excellent work behind the bench by Bruce Bochy, and some of the best pitching the game has seen in this century.

As for me, the day after is surreal. For every year of my life that I have consciously been aware of the game of baseball, I have lived and died with the Giants. I’ve lost sleep worrying about games, I’ve skipped out on dates with pretty ladies to watch games, and I’ve nearly given myself an ulcer with each gut wrenching failure I have endured along with the club. So when Brian Wilson threw that final strike last night, what was my response? Did I jump up and down? Did I scream at the top of my lungs? Did I get plowed to the point that I forgot my own name? The truth is I didn’t do any of those things. Instead, I looked over to my parents, both of whom who have been there right with me nearly every step of the way, and simply smiled and said “wow.”

It may not have been a celebration for the ages in the Flowers’ household, but I can tell you this – other than those major life events, like my parents wedding, my brother and I being born, my brother having two wonderful children of his own, it was one of the happiest moments of our lives.

Thank you San Francisco Giants. It was a long time in coming, but as I’ve written before, it was all worth it as I can now walk down the street, #1 finger held high in the air, with a huge smile on my face. We, and yes I’m including myself and all the Giants’ fans in the world, WE are World Champions.

By Ray Flowers

World Series Numbers

The only numbers that really matters are 2 and 0, as in the Giants 2-0 lead over the Rangers, but that isn’t going to stop me from relaying a whole host of numbers that have come to light in the 2010 World Series.

* There have been 106 World Series match-ups, and this is the 52nd time that a team has taken a 2-0 Series lead. Of the 51 previous times it occurred, the team with the 2-0 lead has won 40 times – a winning percentage of 78.4 percent. The last seven teams to go ahead 2-0 have won the Series, and 13 of the last 14 (Atlanta came back in 1996). This is the fourth time that the Giants have led a Series 2-0, and they won each of the previous three times (1922, 1933 and 1954).

* Matt Cain is a star (note to East Coasters, he has been for a while now, he didn’t just all of a sudden get good). Cain is one of only four pitchers in history to post 20 or more scoreless innings in a single postseason. Here are the others: Christy Mathewson (27 IP), Waite Hoyt (27 IP), Kenny Rogers (23 IP) and Carl Hubbell (20.0). Some more Cain knowledge. Cain is the 8th starting pitcher in postseason history who has not allowed an earned run in 3-straight starts. Cain is the fourth pitcher out of that group to do so in his first three postseason starts. Only one pitcher has ever gone 4-straight – Whitey Ford in 1960-61.

* Elvis Andrus and Nelson Cruz both lost their playoff hitting streaks in Game 2 at 12 games. They had become the 4th and 5th players to compile a 12-game hitting streak to open up their playoff careers. The record is 15-straight by Marquis Grissom in 1995-96.

* The Giants, going all the way back to the New York vintage, have won 47 World Series games. The only two teams with more victories are the Yankees (134) and the Cardinals (52).

* FOUR: The number of starters the Giants have used through the playoffs, and each one of them is homegrown – Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner, That makes the Giants the first team since the 1986 Red Sox to have a 4-man World Series rotation of entirely homegrown hurlers (Roger Clemens, Bruce Hurst, Oil Can Boyd and Al Nipper).

* The Giants don’t score seven runs very often, they were held to six or fewer runs in 141 of their previous 172 games before Game 2, but when they do score seven runs they hardly ever lose (they are 29-4). Speaking of scoring runs, here are some other amazingly relevant facts.

The Giants went 4-for-9 with runners in scoring position in Game 2 and are now 13-for-26 in the Series.

Each of the Giants runs, all 20 of them, have come with two outs.

The Giants have scored more runs in their last 12 innings (19) than they did in winning the NLCS (17).

The Giants have scored nine runs in back-to-back World Series games, only the ninth time a team has done that in Series history.

* The heart of the Rangers lineup has been held in check. Michael Young (1-for-8), Josh Hamilton (1-for-8) and Nelson Cruz (1-for-9) are hitting a combined .120 through two games.

* Edgar Renteria, who is playing with a torn left biceps, has played 63 games at shortstop in the playoffs, second in baseball history to the 147 games of Derek Jeter. Oh, and after producing three RBI in Game 2 Renteria now has one 3-RBI game this season.

* Cliff Lee had never allowed more than three extra base hits in any playoff game. In Game 1 he allowed three doubles to Freddy Sanchez.

* TWO: The number of catchers in World Series history who have hit third in the lineup. Yogi Berra did it for the Yankees in 1947, and Buster Posey is currently doing it for the Giants.

By Ray Flowers