(1) Jose Bautista (wrist) done for the year.
(2) Matt Kemp escapes serious injury.
(3) Todd Frazier will not lose playing time when Joey Votto returns.
(4) Wade Miley starring for D’backs. Should you be wary?
(5) Wilin Rosario having special year.
(6) Greg Holland locking it down for Royals.
(7) Yovani Gallardo on patented hot streak.
By Ray Flowers
Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray interviewed one of the best in the business Tim Heaney from KFFL.com. They will discuss Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Billy Hamilton, Jed Gyorko and other Sept call ups.
Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.
What should we expect from Starling Marte? Is he a 12 or 14 team league add?
– @Daydreaming08
Everyone loves talented rookies. It’s why guys like Matt Moore, Trevor Bauer, Randall Delgado, Drew Pomeranz and Devin Mesoraco have done so well this year. Wait a second, none of those guys has done well (I’d be willing to give Moore a pass, but expectations were so high to start the year that it’s nearly a lock that his owner has been disappointed). For every Bryce Harper there are 25 hot shot rookies that fail to come through. For every Mike Trout there are… well every rookie who has ever played may have to take a backseat to Trout by the time it’s all said and done, and that’s truly shocking. The bottom line is that a team of Nick Swisher’s and Mark Buehrle’s will likely beat up on a team of youngsters year after year. Remember that.
As for Marte, who has been called up by the Pirates, the hype would appear to be justified (at least somewhat). A center fielder by trade, he’ll play left since Andrew McCutchen kinda has that CF spot on lock down. In 98 games at Triple-A Marte was hitting .286 with 12 bombs, 20 doubles, 13 triples, 61 RBIs and 21 steals. This effort comes on the heels of Marte winning the Eastern League batting title (Double-A) when he hit .332. Obviously Marte, ranked the 36th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America early in July, is one of those rare talents that can do it all. A certain blazer who is athletic as all get out, there are still some questions about his ability to control the strike zone, despite all his success, as he is one of those free swingers who rarely takes a walk (his minor league BB/K mark is awful at 0.20, less than half the big league average). Given that approach he could easily struggle, at least in the batting average category.
If you’re in a league that starts five outfielders Marte is without a doubt worth taking a shot on in a 14 team league. Even in a 12 team league he shouldn’t be floating around on the waiver-wire, but make sure you don’t cut an established major league to add him because while there is no doubting Marte has the talent to be a star, there’s a big difference between possessing skills and being able to consistently produce on a big league diamond.
Do I trade Drew Stubbs for Todd Frazier? I need HR, don’t really need SB.
– @MonkeyWithAHalo
Expectations can really be a killer can’t they? I’ve written about this elsewhere recently, but it deserves to be repeated here as well. Stubbs it the modern day Mike Cameron, a guy who helps you in the counting categories, offers a nice mix of power and speed, but one who is going to do you no favors when it comes to the batting average category. However, with seven hits in his last two games, Stubbs has pushed his average up to .230. Not much of course, but it’s only another hot 10 days from the .243 mark he posted last season. In fact, and his owners might not believe it, but Stubbs has been exactly the same player this year that he was last season. Here are his numbers from 158 games last season followed by his numbers in 80 games this year. Heck, I’ll just double his current rate of production which would give us his numbers in 160 games if he were to maintain his current pace.
2011: .243-15-44-92-40
2012: .230-20-58-98-40
That’s right, Stubbs is actually performing better this season than he did last year. Better. In fact, his current effort is right on par with his 2010 effort (.255-22-77-91-30) given the increase in steals this year.
Frazier is seeing playing time at first, third and the outfield for the Reds. Scott Rolen is hitting about as well as Mike Leake, and Joey Votto is on the sidelines working his way back from knee woes giving Frazier a real shot at everyday playing time. Frazier has responded by hitting .302 since the All-Star break, an on the year he has hit .283 with a .343 OBP and .529 SLG. Do you know how many third base eligible players who qualify for the batting title can match those three slash line numbers? The answer is two: Miguel Cabrera (.328/.388/.582) and Edwin Encarnacion (.296/.392/.584). Add in 10 homers in just 223 at-bats and Frazier has been a rather impressive power bat for the Reds.
Stubbs is clearly the superior fantasy performer, but if you are afraid of his average and only in search of a power increase you could make this move, though again, you’re clearly taking a step down in terms of overall production.
Zack Greinke or Lance Lynn rest of the season?
– @silaPssoR
Has it really come to this? Are we really talking about the 2009 AL Cy Young winner in the same breath as a rookie? Greinke clearly has failed to live up to expectations, and he’s had a pretty rough month of work (14 ER in 14 innings) before looking sharp in his last outing (7 IP, 1 ER Tuesday). On the flip-side, Lynn has surprised pretty much every baseball person in the game with his strong work this season. Many, including myself, predicted doom when he hit the skids a month ago (17 ER in 15.1 innings from June 19-30), but he’s actually rebounded extremely well (1 ER his last three starts). Kudos to him for that. Still, let’s keep our wits about us here. Let’s start with the numbers, which are amazingly similar.
Greinke: 9-3, 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 122 Ks in 123 IP
Lynn: 12-4, 3.10 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 120 Ks in 116 IP
The numbers do favor Lynn. Everything else favors Greinke. That “everything” includes history of success at the big league level. It also includes the eye ball test, the scouting test and the talent test. In addition, Lynn tossed a mere 109.2 innings last year and he’s already up to 116 innings this season. In fact, as a professional, Lynn has never had a big IP season: 2008 (26.2), 2009 (148.2), 2010 (164), 2011 (109.2) and 2012 (116). Add in that Lynn is pitching better in the majors than he ever did in the minors, and I’m still going to side with Greinke despite the recent hiccup he’s trying to overcome.
Should I drop A.J. Pierzynski for Carlos Santana?
– @MattManSports
I try to live by a rather simple set of rules. Get my sleep, drink as many Vodka and Red Bull’s as possible, and try to always go with talent over recent production because in the long run, more times than not, it wins out.
If you had asked this question about which catcher to roster my answer would have been the same in March, as it would have been in May as it is here at the end of July – go with Santana. Younger and more talented, Santana struggled badly in the first half causing people to go running like they do when Godzilla goes rumbling down the street. Since the All-Star break though people have remembered why Santana was a top-3 catcher in all drafts this season as he’s hit .315 with a .500 OBP in 13 games thanks in part to 12 walks and just eight strikeouts. I know he’s only batting .234 with seven homers and 37 RBIs on the year, but I still haven’t been presented with an argument as to why AJP would be a better play from this point forward. ‘Idiot, I mean Ray, have you looked at the numbers that show Pierzynski to be dominating Santana across the board?’ Why yes random person, I have noticed those numbers. I also know the following. (1) Pierzynski is dealing with a minor side issue right now that’s kept him out of action for a few days. (2) He has no homers in 12 games and no RBIs in nine contests. (3) His current total of 16 homers is one off his combined total the last two seasons and the most he has hit since he parked 16 in 2006. (4) His total of 50 RBIs is just one behind his average mark the past three years. (5) His total of 40 runs scored is just one off his average the past two years. (6) Players just don’t set career bests in homers, RBIs, runs, walks, SLG and OPS in their 15th season, especially when they are catchers. You can’t take away what Pierzynski has done this season, but that doesn’t mean I have to buy that he will continue to operate at a pace that we’ve never seen from him before.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.
Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.
Would you trade Rickie Weeks for Francisco Liriano and Stephen Drew? I need pitching depth after many injuries.
– @lqmattson
Weeks has been awful this year hitting .199 with a .658 OPS. Still, he’s immensely talented, has stayed healthy (always an issue for him), and he simply can’t remain this awful for an entire season. He just can’t (don’t forget that he is coming off back-to-back seasons of 20 homers, 75 runs and an exactly similar .269 batting average each campaign). Looks like the turnaround has already started too as he’s hitting .297 with two homers, seven RBIs and 10 runs scored the past two weeks.
Liriano has literally brought his ERA down three full runs over his last seven outings. During those seven trips to the hill he has a 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 52 Ks in 49.1 innings. Walks are still a concern, his 4.38 BB/9 mark is about a batter above where we’d like to see it, but the point is pretty obvious – he’s locked in right now and in five of those eight outings he has allowed zero or one run. He’s not the Liriano we all remember dominating hitters in 2006, but he clearly looks like he is back to being the 2010 version of himself and not the dreadful hurler we saw in 2011 and for the first two months this season.
Drew is never going to live up to expectations, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective fantasy weapon at shortstop. Remember, from 2007-2010 Drew was a top-10 shortstop even if none of his numbers really jump off the page. Even last year his 162 games would have produced a season of roughly 10 homers, 85 RBI, 80 runs and eight steals – solid numbers to be sure. However, he only appeared in 86 games due to that catastrophic injury to his ankle, and he’s just back out on the field with the big league club having appeared in nine games with poor results (.179 with a .440 OPS). Obviously he will improve, but until he reaches the point where he starts to produce, consider me to be a bit wary (users at Fleaflicker also appear to be in a wait and see approach).
You can do this deal if you need pitching depth as you said, and if the plan includes Drew serving as a backup middle infielder. However, if Drew has to start right now, it’s hard to suggest making this move because even though Weeks has struggled this year, he appears to be heating up and he is clearly the healthier, more ready player to attack the start of the second half. This would be a deal you make solely based on need.
Would you want Cody Ross or Todd Frazier in 14 team h2h dynasty league?
– @MacVincent1
Remember when you had a crush on that gal in high school? You know, that cute gal who thought you were great because you were so funny and smart – yet she always ended up dating some loser who treated her terribly? That gal keeps trying to “date” Cody Ross, I keep telling telling her it’s a bad idea, and she keeps doing it anyway. Newsflash people – Jacoby Ellsbury should be back Friday. Obviously he’s going to play everyday. Carl Crawford should be back in about 2-3 weeks. If healthy, he’s playing everyday. Since David Ortiz is locked in at DH, that means the Red Sox will have the following players vying for time in right field: Ryan Sweeney (rumors suggest the Red Sox are trying to trade him), Daniel Nava, Ryan Kalish, Scott Podsednik and Ross. Yeah, it’s gonna get crowded. I would be remiss if I also didn’t note that Ross is hitting just .264. He’s striking out at a career worst level. He’s batting .238 with a .750 OPS against right handed pitching. Sure he has 20 homer, 75 RBI upside, but really this is a pretty boring skill set that could potentially be in for a playing time squeeze soon.
Frazier has his own problem, chiefly the presence of Scott Rolen. A potential HOF candidate, Rolen was at one point the best all-around third basemen in baseball. That was 2004 though. A broken down shell of his former self, Rolen simply cannot hit any longer as his body has worn down, and through 42 games he is batting .178 with a .302 SLG. Why the Reds continue to play him semi-regularly makes no sense, not with Frazier hitting so well. A third baseman, the Reds have used Frazier a bit in the outfield to get his bat in the lineup, something they should do on a daily basis considering that he’s hitting .278 with nine homers, 29 RBIs an a .901 OPS through 180 at-bats this season.
To me, this is an easy decision. In a keeper league you have to go with Frazier who actually profiles as a very similar hitter to Ross. Two main facts tip the balance to Frazier. First, he plays third base. Second, he’s six years younger.
Do you still think Matt “Harrison is just blah”?
– @theYankeeHajny
I recently answered a question on Twitter about Harrison saying he was “blah.” Of course, it’s hard to give an accurate answer in 140 characters, you get even less space when you are responding to a question, but my point was this (even if my less than eloquent initial response didn’t directly say it). Harrison may have a 3.10 ERA, but that mark really should be a run higher. If it was, his xFIP is 3.95 and his left on base percentage is elevated at 78 percent, we’d be talking about a pitcher with a league average ERA. A solid ground ball arm (51 percent of batted balls are grounders), Harrison is pretty awful in the K column with an average of 5.56 Ks per nine innings, a batter an a half below the league average. So if he’s a league average ERA arm, and below average in K/9, then he’s totally dependent on his record and WHIP leading him to fantasy prominence. He’s 11-4 this year and 25-13 since the start of last season, so he’s looking pretty good in the win column, though we all know that wins-loses don’t always follow based upon a pitchers performance (just ask Cliff Lee who is 1-5 despite a 3.98 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.06 K/9 and 4.90 K/BB mark). Harrison does have a solid WHIP at 1.24, but given his skill set it would seem at least a 50/50 bet that the mark will creep into the 1.30′s in the second half which is once again league average.
Harrison is a wonderful real world arm, but he’s just not that exciting from a fantasy perspective if we’re talking about a standard 5×5 setup.
Eric O’Flaherty – regressing or bad luck? I’m in a points league with Solds.
@eoin_daly
Boy expectations can be rough.
O’Flaherty was dynamic last year with a 0.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 67 Ks in 73.2 innings. There’s simply no way that anyone keeps up that pace year to year. This season he’s working on a 2.87 ERA. His career mark is 3.11. His WHIP is 1.34. His career mark is 1.29. His K/9 is 7.47. His career mark is 7.00. His K/BB ratio is 2.17. His career mark is 2.16. Moreover, his 64 percent ground ball rate is not only massive, its 11 percentage points better than his career mark. The only real downer for him at this point is a more than doubling of his HR/F mark (from 6.00 in his career to 16 percent this year). When that number normalizes, and it should, we’re likely to see his ratios improve a bit. O’Flaherty has been fine based on his career numbers, and solid regardless of his “regression.” Last season was simply one of those for the ages type of efforts and he was never going to repeat that success this season.
As for Solds, that is the category that I keep pushing for relievers. With all the turnover in the 9th inning, literally two-thirds of all closers from opening day have changed this year, isn’t it time we move on from the antiquated recording of points for relievers that relies so heavily on the save? Why not just use Solds (saves + holds) as a better representation of relievers value? You wouldn’t have to roster a guy like Heath Bell with his 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP for his save total, you could instead roster a guy like O’Flaherty who has pitched much better even if he doesn’t have the saves total to prove it (O’Flaherty has a Solds make of 15, just six behind the 21 mark of Bell).
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Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
